Final · 5 setsFri, Sep 25, 2026Watch on ACCNX

Duke def. Wake Forest 3–2

Duke won at Wake Forest 3-2 (22-25, 29-27, 25-18, 23-25, 15-10) on Fri, Sep 25, 2026. Duke's Ashby Zubchevich led with 19 kills, and Nikki Quinn added 13 digs.

Data through · final Sep 25

Set12345Sets
DUKE22292523153
WAKE25271825102

Win probability

Wake Forest above 50 · Duke below
S1S2S3S4S510050100+12.8% DUKErally 219 · set 5

Biggest swing: 12.8% to Duke — set 5, DUKE 8-7 WAKE. Ryleigh Whitekettle stuffed by Ashby Zubchevich & Breonna Goss. WAKE win probability 52% → 40%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

DUKE 49.6%50.4% WAKE

Duke wins

3-0
12.3%
3-1
18.6%
3-2
18.7%

Wake Forest wins

3-0
12.7%
3-1
18.9%
3-2
18.8%
DUKE break %
39.8% vs this opp
WAKE break %
39.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Ryleigh Whitekettle stuffed by Ashby Zubchevich & Breonna Goss

    Set 5 · DUKE 8-7 WAKE · DUKE 48% → 60%

  2. 02
    Emma KeepingBad set+12.5%

    Bad set by Emma Keeping

    Set 5 · DUKE 9-7 WAKE · DUKE 60% → 73%

  3. 03
    Avery HamlinKill+11.4%

    Kill by Avery Hamlin (set by Nikki Quinn)

    Set 5 · DUKE 11-8 WAKE · DUKE 75% → 86%

  4. 04
    Amina NdiayeKill+10.6%

    Kill by Amina Ndiaye (set by Becca Bellows)

    Set 4 · DUKE 23-25 WAKE · WAKE 41% → 52%

  5. 05

    Kill by Ashby Zubchevich (set by Nikki Quinn)

    Set 2 · DUKE 29-27 WAKE · DUKE 39% → 50%

  6. 06
    DukeAce+10.2%

    Duke ace on Dhru Lalaji

    Set 2 · DUKE 24-23 WAKE · DUKE 29% → 39%

  7. 07

    Lyla Stewart stuffed by Nikki Quinn & Zoe Gillen-Malveaux

    Set 2 · DUKE 26-25 WAKE · DUKE 29% → 39%

  8. 08
    Lyla StewartKill+10.2%

    Kill by Lyla Stewart (set by Becca Bellows)

    Set 2 · DUKE 24-25 WAKE · WAKE 67% → 77%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Dukeaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
519639.333052122052.526.5
517547.255114121111.519.5
511325.32000020254.515.5
512628.2140124004215
53216.063000000847
5102.5004906130031.52.5
5000–211100001
5000–000600000
5000–001000000
5000–605900000
2000–001000000
Team totals6322157.2615882259332616114
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
519858.19001316002121
511829.1030001002112
55314.14300100110611
55625-.04000053132.57.5
51011.00024011400001
3419.333000000004
51011.0002112300002
5000–5121020001
5000–0011010000
4408.500000100215
33212.083000000214
3213.33300000111.53.5
Team totals5529160.1635031060832214105

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 DUKE · WAKE 6

Set 1

22-25

Longest run 4 DUKEWAKE 4

Set 2

29-27

Longest run 3 DUKEWAKE 4

Set 3

25-18

Longest run 5 DUKEWAKE 3

Set 4

23-25

Longest run 5 DUKEWAKE 6

Set 5

15-10

Longest run 3 DUKEWAKE 2

Bars above the line = Wake Forest leads, below = Duke leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Duke

SlotSideout %Break %
1
85%11/13
41%7/17
2
61%11/18
48%10/21
3
60%9/15
41%7/17
4
62%8/13
27%3/11
5
73%8/11
43%6/14
6
70%7/10
36%4/11
All
68%54/80
41%37/91

Wake Forest

SlotSideout %Break %
1
55%11/20
11%1/9
2
50%11/22
31%5/16
3
71%10/14
31%5/16
4
67%8/12
50%9/18
5
58%7/12
20%2/10
6
64%7/11
36%4/11
All
59%54/91
33%26/80

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

219 rallies

#DUKE-WAKESrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1DUKEWAKEKillRyleigh Whitekettleset Emma Keeping+1.7
20-2WAKEWAKEAttack errBreonna Goss+2.6
31-2WAKEDUKEKillBreonna Gossset Nikki Quinn+1.7
41-3DUKEWAKEKillCatherine Burkeset Emma Keeping+1.8
52-3WAKEDUKEServe errWake Forest+1.7
62-4DUKEWAKE×4KillSanaa Williamsset Emma Keeping+1.8
72-5WAKEWAKE×4BlockedNataly Moravecblk Laiya Ebo, Sanaa Williams+2.6
82-6WAKEWAKE×4KillLyla Stewartset Andrea Roman+2.4
92-7WAKEWAKE×4KillLyla Stewartset Becca Bellows+2.1
103-7WAKEDUKEKillZoe Gillen-Malveauxset Nikki Quinn+1.2
113-8DUKEWAKEKillLaiya Eboset Becca Bellows+1.4
124-8WAKEDUKEKillZoe Gillen-Malveauxset Nikki Quinn+1.2
135-8DUKEDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+2.2
145-9DUKEWAKE×3Serve errDuke+1.7
155-10WAKEWAKE×3KillAmina Ndiayeset Becca Bellows+2.2
165-11WAKEWAKE×3Attack errBreonna Goss+1.8
176-11WAKEDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+0.9
187-11DUKEDUKEBad setBecca Bellows+1.8
197-12DUKEWAKEServe errDuke+1.5
208-12WAKEDUKEAttack errAmina Ndiaye+1.2
218-13DUKEWAKEAttack errAshby Zubchevich+1.5
229-13WAKEDUKEKillAvery Hamlinset Nikki Quinn+1.2
2310-13DUKEDUKEBlockedRyleigh Whitekettleblk Nataly Moravec, Zoe Gillen-Malveaux+2.3
2410-14DUKEWAKEBlockedAshby Zubchevichblk Sanaa Williams+1.8
2510-15WAKEWAKEBlockedNataly Moravecblk Ryleigh Whitekettle, Sanaa Williams+2.3
2611-15WAKEDUKEKillZoe Gillen-Malveauxset Nikki Quinn+1.1
2712-15DUKEDUKEBlockedSanaa Williamsblk Zoe Gillen-Malveaux+2.3
2812-16DUKEWAKEKillLyla Stewartset Emma Keeping+1.9
2912-17WAKEWAKEAttack errNataly Moravec+2.2
3013-17WAKEDUKEKillZoe Gillen-Malveauxset Nikki Quinn+1.1
3114-17DUKEDUKEKillZoe Gillen-Malveauxset Becca Bellows+2.2
3214-18DUKEWAKEKillLyla Stewartset Becca Bellows+2.0
3314-19WAKEWAKEKillBecca Bellowsset Becca Bellows+2.2
3415-19WAKEDUKE×4Serve errWake Forest+0.9
3516-19DUKEDUKE×4BlockedAmina Ndiayeblk Breonna Goss, Ashby Zubchevich+2.1
3617-19DUKEDUKE×4BlockedLaiya Eboblk Breonna Goss, Ashby Zubchevich+3.0
3718-19DUKEDUKE×4BlockedAmina Ndiayeblk Nikki Quinn, Breonna Goss+4.1
3818-20DUKEWAKEServe errDuke+3.3
3919-20WAKEDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+2.8
4019-21DUKEWAKEServe errDuke+3.6
4120-21WAKEDUKEServe errWake Forest+2.9
4220-22DUKEWAKEKillRyleigh Whitekettleset Emma Keeping+3.9
4321-22WAKEDUKEKillAvery Hamlinset Nikki Quinn+3.0
4421-23DUKEWAKEKillRyleigh Whitekettleset Emma Keeping+4.4
4522-23WAKEDUKEAttack errSanaa Williams+3.0
4622-24DUKEWAKEKillLyla Stewartset Emma Keeping+5.1
4722-25WAKEWAKEKillLyla Stewartset Becca Bellows+4.1
Set 2
11-0WAKEDUKE×3KillAvery Hamlinset Nikki Quinn+1.7
22-0DUKEDUKE×3KillZoe Gillen-Malveauxset Nikki Quinn+2.6
33-0DUKEDUKE×3BlockedRyleigh Whitekettleblk Nataly Moravec+2.5
43-1DUKEWAKE×4KillCatherine Burkeset Emma Keeping+1.5
53-2WAKEWAKE×4AceWake Forestaced Ashby Zubchevich+2.6
63-3WAKEWAKE×4KillLyla Stewartset Emma Keeping+2.7
73-4WAKEWAKE×4BlockedAvery Hamlinblk Sanaa Williams, Lyla Stewart+2.8
84-4WAKEDUKE×3Serve errWake Forest+1.8
95-4DUKEDUKE×3KillNataly Moravecset Mailinh Godschall+2.9
106-4DUKEDUKE×3Attack errRyleigh Whitekettle+2.9
116-5DUKEWAKEKillLyla Stewartset Emma Keeping+1.8
127-5WAKEDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Mailinh Godschall+1.9
137-6DUKEWAKE×4KillLyla Stewartset Becca Bellows+1.8
147-7WAKEWAKE×4BlockedZoe Gillen-Malveauxblk Sanaa Williams, Amina Ndiaye+3.0
157-8WAKEWAKE×4BlockedAshby Zubchevichblk Laiya Ebo, Sanaa Williams+3.1
167-9WAKEWAKE×4KillLaiya Eboset Becca Bellows+3.1
178-9WAKEDUKE×3Serve errWake Forest+1.9
189-9DUKEDUKE×3KillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+3.2
1910-9DUKEDUKE×3BlockedLaiya Eboblk Ashby Zubchevich, Breonna Goss+3.3
2010-10DUKEWAKEServe errDuke+2.2
2111-10WAKEDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+2.3
2211-11DUKEWAKEKillAmina Ndiayeset Becca Bellows+2.2
2312-11WAKEDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+2.3
2413-11DUKEDUKEAceDukeaced Andrea Roman+3.5
2513-12DUKEWAKEKillCatherine Burkeset Emma Keeping+2.2
2614-12WAKEDUKEBlockedLyla Stewartblk Avery Hamlin, Breonna Goss+2.4
2714-13DUKEWAKEKillLyla Stewartset Emma Keeping+2.2
2815-13WAKEDUKEBlockedLyla Stewartblk Zoe Gillen-Malveaux, Avery Hamlin+2.5
2915-14DUKEWAKEKillSanaa Williamsset Emma Keeping+2.3
3016-14WAKEDUKEKillZoe Gillen-Malveauxset Nikki Quinn+2.6
3116-15DUKEWAKEServe errDuke+2.4
3216-16WAKEWAKEBlockedAshby Zubchevichblk Sadie Poeck, Sanaa Williams+4.2
3317-16WAKEDUKEServe errWake Forest+3.0
3417-17DUKEWAKEKillSanaa Williamsset Breonna Goss+2.9
3517-18WAKEWAKEKillCatherine Burkeset Becca Bellows+4.8
3618-18WAKEDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+3.1
3718-19DUKEWAKE×3Serve errDuke+3.4
3818-20WAKEWAKE×3KillAmina Ndiayeset Andrea Roman+5.0
3918-21WAKEWAKE×3BlockedAvery Hamlinblk Amina Ndiaye+4.2
4019-21WAKEDUKEBlockedAmina Ndiayeblk Breonna Goss, Avery Hamlin+1.9
4119-22DUKEWAKEKillEmma Keepingset Andrea Roman+2.9
4220-22WAKEDUKEServe errWake Forest+1.8
4321-22DUKEDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Kyndal Ganoe+4.5
4421-23DUKEWAKEKillRyleigh Whitekettleset Emma Keeping+4.4
4522-23WAKEDUKE×3KillNataly Moravecset Mailinh Godschall+3.0
4623-23DUKEDUKE×3Attack errLyla Stewart+7.7
4724-23DUKEDUKE×3AceDukeaced Dhru Lalaji+10.2
4824-24DUKEWAKEKillRyleigh Whitekettleset Emma Keeping+6.8
4924-25WAKEWAKEKillLyla Stewartset Becca Bellows+10.2
5025-25WAKEDUKEServe errWake Forest+6.7
5126-25DUKEDUKEBlockedLyla Stewartblk Nikki Quinn, Zoe Gillen-Malveaux+10.2
5226-26DUKEWAKEServe errDuke+6.8
5327-26WAKEDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nataly Moravec+6.8
5427-27DUKEWAKEServe errDuke+6.8
5528-27WAKEDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+6.8
5629-27DUKEDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+10.2
Set 3
11-0DUKEDUKE×3AceDukeaced Amina Ndiaye+3.5
22-0DUKEDUKE×3AceDukeaced Amina Ndiaye+3.5
33-0DUKEDUKE×3AceDukeaced Amina Ndiaye+3.4
43-1DUKEWAKEKillRyleigh Whitekettleset Emma Keeping+2.1
54-1WAKEDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+2.3
64-2DUKEWAKE×3KillRyleigh Whitekettleset Emma Keeping+2.1
74-3WAKEWAKE×3AceWake Forestaced Ashby Zubchevich+3.5
84-4WAKEWAKE×3Attack errAvery Hamlin+3.7
95-4WAKEDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+2.5
105-5DUKEWAKEKillLyla Stewartset Becca Bellows+2.5
116-5WAKEDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+2.6
126-6DUKEWAKEServe errDuke+2.6
137-6WAKEDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+2.7
147-7DUKEWAKEKillSadie Poeckset Becca Bellows+2.7
158-7WAKEDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+2.8
168-8DUKEWAKEServe errDuke+2.7
178-9WAKEWAKEAttack errAshby Zubchevich+4.3
189-9WAKEDUKE×3Attack errCatherine Burke+2.8
1910-9DUKEDUKE×3AceDuke+4.4
2011-9DUKEDUKE×3Attack errRyleigh Whitekettle+4.4
2111-10DUKEWAKEServe errDuke+2.7
2212-10WAKEDUKE×5KillBreonna Gossset Nikki Quinn+3.0
2313-10DUKEDUKE×5KillAvery Hamlinset Nikki Quinn+4.2
2414-10DUKEDUKE×5Attack errRyleigh Whitekettle+3.7
2515-10DUKEDUKE×5KillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+3.0
2616-10DUKEDUKE×5Attack errRyleigh Whitekettle+2.3
2716-11DUKEWAKEKillRyleigh Whitekettleset Emma Keeping+1.0
2817-11WAKEDUKEKillAvery Hamlinset Becca Bellows+1.5
2917-12DUKEWAKEKillLyla Stewartset Becca Bellows+1.0
3018-12WAKEDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+1.4
3119-12DUKEDUKEAceDukeaced Andrea Roman+1.3
3219-13DUKEWAKEBad setAshby Zubchevich+0.5
3320-13WAKEDUKEServe errWake Forest+0.8
3420-14DUKEWAKEServe errDuke+0.4
3521-14WAKEDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+0.7
3621-15DUKEWAKEServe errDuke+0.3
3722-15WAKEDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+0.5
3822-16DUKEWAKEBlockedBreonna Gossblk Kelis Hawkins+0.2
3923-16WAKEDUKEKillAvery Hamlinset Nikki Quinn+0.4
4023-17DUKEWAKEKillLaiya Eboset Emma Keeping+0.1
4124-17WAKEDUKEAttack errLyla Stewart+0.2
4224-18DUKEWAKEBlockedZoe Gillen-Malveauxblk Sanaa Williams, Amina Ndiaye·
4325-18WAKEDUKEKillZoe Gillen-Malveauxset Mailinh Godschall+0.1
Set 4
10-1WAKEWAKEKillLyla Stewartset Becca Bellows+3.5
20-2WAKEWAKEAttack errAvery Hamlin+3.5
31-2WAKEDUKEServe errWake Forest+2.2
42-2DUKEDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Kyndal Ganoe+3.6
52-3DUKEWAKEKillLyla Stewartset Andrea Roman+2.4
63-3WAKEDUKE×5KillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+2.4
74-3DUKEDUKE×5Bad setBecca Bellows+3.8
85-3DUKEDUKE×5KillZoe Gillen-Malveauxset Nikki Quinn+3.7
96-3DUKEDUKE×5KillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+3.6
107-3DUKEDUKE×5Attack errSanaa Williams+3.3
117-4DUKEWAKEServe errDuke+1.9
128-4WAKEDUKEBlockedAmina Ndiayeblk Zoe Gillen-Malveaux, Nikki Quinn+2.2
138-5DUKEWAKEKillSadie Poeckset Becca Bellows+1.9
149-5WAKEDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+2.3
159-6DUKEWAKEKillKelis Hawkinsset Emma Keeping+2.0
1610-6WAKEDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+2.3
1711-6DUKEDUKEAttack errLyla Stewart+3.0
1811-7DUKEWAKEKillKelis Hawkinsset Emma Keeping+1.6
1911-8WAKEWAKEKillLyla Stewartset Emma Keeping+3.0
2012-8WAKEDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+2.4
2112-9DUKEWAKEAttack errAvery Hamlin+2.0
2213-9WAKEDUKEKillAvery Hamlinset Nikki Quinn+2.4
2313-10DUKEWAKEServe errDuke+2.0
2414-10WAKEDUKEAttack errLyla Stewart+2.5
2515-10DUKEDUKEKillZoe Gillen-Malveauxset Nikki Quinn+3.1
2615-11DUKEWAKEAttack errNataly Moravec+1.5
2716-11WAKEDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+2.0
2816-12DUKEWAKE×3KillAmina Ndiayeset Becca Bellows+1.5
2916-13WAKEWAKE×3KillRyleigh Whitekettleset Emma Keeping+3.0
3016-14WAKEWAKE×3BlockedZoe Gillen-Malveauxblk Amina Ndiaye, Kelis Hawkins+3.9
3117-14WAKEDUKEKillNikki Quinnset Mailinh Godschall+3.2
3218-14DUKEDUKEBad setBecca Bellows+4.0
3318-15DUKEWAKEServe errDuke+1.9
3418-16WAKEWAKEKillRyleigh Whitekettleset Emma Keeping+4.0
3519-16WAKEDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+3.5
3619-17DUKEWAKE×6Serve errDuke+2.7
3719-18WAKEWAKE×6BlockedAshby Zubchevichblk Ryleigh Whitekettle, Sanaa Williams+5.5
3819-19WAKEWAKE×6KillLyla Stewartset Andrea Roman+6.7
3919-20WAKEWAKE×6KillSanaa Williamsset Emma Keeping+7.5
4019-21WAKEWAKE×6Bad setMailinh Godschall+7.3
4119-22WAKEWAKE×6BlockedAvery Hamlinblk Lyla Stewart, Sanaa Williams+5.9
4220-22WAKEDUKEKillAvery Hamlinset Mailinh Godschall+2.5
4321-22DUKEDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Mailinh Godschall+6.1
4421-23DUKEWAKEServe errDuke+5.9
4522-23DUKE
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+4.0
4622-24DUKEWAKEKillLyla Stewartset Becca Bellows+6.9
4723-24WAKEDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+3.6
4823-25DUKEWAKEKillAmina Ndiayeset Becca Bellows+10.6
Set 5
10-1DUKEWAKEBlockedNataly Moravecblk Sadie Poeck, Sanaa Williams+6.0
20-2WAKEWAKEAceWake Forestaced Nataly Moravec+9.0
31-2WAKEDUKEAttack errLyla Stewart+5.6
41-3DUKEWAKEKillSanaa Williamsset Becca Bellows+6.2
51-4WAKEWAKEKillSadie Poeckset Becca Bellows+8.7
62-4WAKEDUKE×3KillAvery Hamlinset Nikki Quinn+5.0
73-4DUKEDUKE×3KillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+9.0
84-4DUKEDUKE×3KillZoe Gillen-Malveauxset Nikki Quinn+10.2
94-5DUKEWAKEServe errDuke+7.1
105-5WAKEDUKEBlockedKelis Hawkinsblk Zoe Gillen-Malveaux+7.0
115-6DUKEWAKEServe errDuke+7.5
126-6WAKEDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+7.4
136-7DUKEWAKEKillRyleigh Whitekettleset Emma Keeping+7.9
147-7WAKEDUKE×3BlockedRyleigh Whitekettleblk Ashby Zubchevich, Breonna Goss+7.8
158-7DUKEDUKE×3BlockedRyleigh Whitekettleblk Ashby Zubchevich, Breonna Goss+12.8
169-7DUKEDUKE×3Bad setEmma Keeping+12.5
179-8DUKEWAKEServe errDuke+7.2
1810-8WAKEDUKEKillAvery Hamlinset Nikki Quinn+8.9
1911-8DUKEDUKEKillAvery Hamlinset Nikki Quinn+11.4
2011-9DUKEWAKEKillLyla Stewartset Becca Bellows+5.2
2112-9WAKEDUKE×3KillBreonna Gossset Nikki Quinn+7.8
2213-9DUKEDUKE×3AceDuke+7.5
2314-9DUKEDUKE×3BlockedAmina Ndiayeblk Zoe Gillen-Malveaux, Avery Hamlin+3.2
2414-10DUKEWAKEKillSadie Poeckset Becca Bellows+0.5
2515-10WAKEDUKEKillAvery Hamlinset Nikki Quinn+1.1

Score shown after each rally, Duke first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).