Duke def. Wake Forest 3–2
Duke won at Wake Forest 3-2 (22-25, 29-27, 25-18, 23-25, 15-10) on Fri, Sep 25, 2026. Duke's Ashby Zubchevich led with 19 kills, and Nikki Quinn added 13 digs.
Data through · final Sep 25
| Set | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | Sets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DUKE | 22 | 29 | 25 | 23 | 15 | 3 |
| WAKE | 25 | 27 | 18 | 25 | 10 | 2 |
Win probability
Biggest swing: 12.8% to Duke — set 5, DUKE 8-7 WAKE. Ryleigh Whitekettle stuffed by Ashby Zubchevich & Breonna Goss. WAKE win probability 52% → 40%.
Pre-match
Season fit · includes this match
Duke wins
Wake Forest wins
- DUKE break %
- 39.8% vs this opp
- WAKE break %
- 39.8% vs this opp
Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.
Top plays
Largest win-probability swings
- 01Ashby Zubchevich&Breonna GossBlock+12.8%
Ryleigh Whitekettle stuffed by Ashby Zubchevich & Breonna Goss
Set 5 · DUKE 8-7 WAKE · DUKE 48% → 60%
- 02
- 03Avery HamlinKill+11.4%
Kill by Avery Hamlin (set by Nikki Quinn)
Set 5 · DUKE 11-8 WAKE · DUKE 75% → 86%
- 04Amina NdiayeKill+10.6%
Kill by Amina Ndiaye (set by Becca Bellows)
Set 4 · DUKE 23-25 WAKE · WAKE 41% → 52%
- 05Ashby ZubchevichKill+10.2%
Kill by Ashby Zubchevich (set by Nikki Quinn)
Set 2 · DUKE 29-27 WAKE · DUKE 39% → 50%
- 06DukeAce+10.2%
Duke ace on Dhru Lalaji
Set 2 · DUKE 24-23 WAKE · DUKE 29% → 39%
- 07Nikki Quinn&Zoe Gillen-MalveauxBlock+10.2%
Lyla Stewart stuffed by Nikki Quinn & Zoe Gillen-Malveaux
Set 2 · DUKE 26-25 WAKE · DUKE 29% → 39%
- 08Lyla StewartKill+10.2%
Kill by Lyla Stewart (set by Becca Bellows)
Set 2 · DUKE 24-25 WAKE · WAKE 67% → 77%
Box score
Official NCAA box
| Player | S | K | E | TA | Hit% | AST | SA | SE | DIG | RE | BS | BA | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 19 | 6 | 39 | .333 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2.5 | 26.5 | |
| 5 | 17 | 5 | 47 | .255 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 19.5 | |
| 5 | 11 | 3 | 25 | .320 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4.5 | 15.5 | |
| 5 | 12 | 6 | 28 | .214 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 15 | |
| 5 | 3 | 2 | 16 | .063 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 7 | |
| 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | .500 | 49 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 6 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team totals | 63 | 22 | 157 | .261 | 58 | 8 | 22 | 59 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 16 | 114 |
| Player | S | K | E | TA | Hit% | AST | SA | SE | DIG | RE | BS | BA | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 19 | 8 | 58 | .190 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 21 | |
| 5 | 11 | 8 | 29 | .103 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 12 | |
| 5 | 5 | 3 | 14 | .143 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 11 | |
| 5 | 5 | 6 | 25 | -.040 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2.5 | 7.5 | |
| 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.000 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 1 | 9 | .333 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | |
| 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.000 | 21 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 4 | 0 | 8 | .500 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | |
| 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 | .083 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | |
| 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | .333 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 3.5 | |
| Team totals | 55 | 29 | 160 | .163 | 50 | 3 | 10 | 60 | 8 | 3 | 22 | 14 | 105 |
Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.
Momentum
Point differential by rally
Set 1
22-25
Set 2
29-27
Set 3
25-18
Set 4
23-25
Set 5
15-10
Bars above the line = Wake Forest leads, below = Duke leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.
Rotations
Sideout and break % by rotation slot
Duke
| Slot | Sideout % | Break % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 85%11/13 | 41%7/17 |
| 2 | 61%11/18 | 48%10/21 |
| 3 | 60%9/15 | 41%7/17 |
| 4 | 62%8/13 | 27%3/11 |
| 5 | 73%8/11 | 43%6/14 |
| 6 | 70%7/10 | 36%4/11 |
| All | 68%54/80 | 41%37/91 |
Wake Forest
| Slot | Sideout % | Break % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 55%11/20 | 11%1/9 |
| 2 | 50%11/22 | 31%5/16 |
| 3 | 71%10/14 | 31%5/16 |
| 4 | 67%8/12 | 50%9/18 |
| 5 | 58%7/12 | 20%2/10 |
| 6 | 64%7/11 | 36%4/11 |
| All | 59%54/91 | 33%26/80 |
Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.
Rally log
219 rallies
| # | DUKE-WAKE | Srv | Point | End | Player | Setter / blockers / passer | WP Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Set 1 | |||||||
| 1 | 0-1 | DUKE | WAKE | Kill | Ryleigh Whitekettle | set Emma Keeping | +1.7 |
| 2 | 0-2 | WAKE | WAKE | Attack err | Breonna Goss | +2.6 | |
| 3 | 1-2 | WAKE | DUKE | Kill | Breonna Goss | set Nikki Quinn | +1.7 |
| 4 | 1-3 | DUKE | WAKE | Kill | Catherine Burke | set Emma Keeping | +1.8 |
| 5 | 2-3 | WAKE | DUKE | Serve err | Wake Forest | +1.7 | |
| 6 | 2-4 | DUKE | WAKE×4 | Kill | Sanaa Williams | set Emma Keeping | +1.8 |
| 7 | 2-5 | WAKE | WAKE×4 | Blocked | Nataly Moravec | blk Laiya Ebo, Sanaa Williams | +2.6 |
| 8 | 2-6 | WAKE | WAKE×4 | Kill | Lyla Stewart | set Andrea Roman | +2.4 |
| 9 | 2-7 | WAKE | WAKE×4 | Kill | Lyla Stewart | set Becca Bellows | +2.1 |
| 10 | 3-7 | WAKE | DUKE | Kill | Zoe Gillen-Malveaux | set Nikki Quinn | +1.2 |
| 11 | 3-8 | DUKE | WAKE | Kill | Laiya Ebo | set Becca Bellows | +1.4 |
| 12 | 4-8 | WAKE | DUKE | Kill | Zoe Gillen-Malveaux | set Nikki Quinn | +1.2 |
| 13 | 5-8 | DUKE | DUKE | Kill | Ashby Zubchevich | set Nikki Quinn | +2.2 |
| 14 | 5-9 | DUKE | WAKE×3 | Serve err | Duke | +1.7 | |
| 15 | 5-10 | WAKE | WAKE×3 | Kill | Amina Ndiaye | set Becca Bellows | +2.2 |
| 16 | 5-11 | WAKE | WAKE×3 | Attack err | Breonna Goss | +1.8 | |
| 17 | 6-11 | WAKE | DUKE | Kill | Ashby Zubchevich | set Nikki Quinn | +0.9 |
| 18 | 7-11 | DUKE | DUKE | Bad set | Becca Bellows | +1.8 | |
| 19 | 7-12 | DUKE | WAKE | Serve err | Duke | +1.5 | |
| 20 | 8-12 | WAKE | DUKE | Attack err | Amina Ndiaye | +1.2 | |
| 21 | 8-13 | DUKE | WAKE | Attack err | Ashby Zubchevich | +1.5 | |
| 22 | 9-13 | WAKE | DUKE | Kill | Avery Hamlin | set Nikki Quinn | +1.2 |
| 23 | 10-13 | DUKE | DUKE | Blocked | Ryleigh Whitekettle | blk Nataly Moravec, Zoe Gillen-Malveaux | +2.3 |
| 24 | 10-14 | DUKE | WAKE | Blocked | Ashby Zubchevich | blk Sanaa Williams | +1.8 |
| 25 | 10-15 | WAKE | WAKE | Blocked | Nataly Moravec | blk Ryleigh Whitekettle, Sanaa Williams | +2.3 |
| 26 | 11-15 | WAKE | DUKE | Kill | Zoe Gillen-Malveaux | set Nikki Quinn | +1.1 |
| 27 | 12-15 | DUKE | DUKE | Blocked | Sanaa Williams | blk Zoe Gillen-Malveaux | +2.3 |
| 28 | 12-16 | DUKE | WAKE | Kill | Lyla Stewart | set Emma Keeping | +1.9 |
| 29 | 12-17 | WAKE | WAKE | Attack err | Nataly Moravec | +2.2 | |
| 30 | 13-17 | WAKE | DUKE | Kill | Zoe Gillen-Malveaux | set Nikki Quinn | +1.1 |
| 31 | 14-17 | DUKE | DUKE | Kill | Zoe Gillen-Malveaux | set Becca Bellows | +2.2 |
| 32 | 14-18 | DUKE | WAKE | Kill | Lyla Stewart | set Becca Bellows | +2.0 |
| 33 | 14-19 | WAKE | WAKE | Kill | Becca Bellows | set Becca Bellows | +2.2 |
| 34 | 15-19 | WAKE | DUKE×4 | Serve err | Wake Forest | +0.9 | |
| 35 | 16-19 | DUKE | DUKE×4 | Blocked | Amina Ndiaye | blk Breonna Goss, Ashby Zubchevich | +2.1 |
| 36 | 17-19 | DUKE | DUKE×4 | Blocked | Laiya Ebo | blk Breonna Goss, Ashby Zubchevich | +3.0 |
| 37 | 18-19 | DUKE | DUKE×4 | Blocked | Amina Ndiaye | blk Nikki Quinn, Breonna Goss | +4.1 |
| 38 | 18-20 | DUKE | WAKE | Serve err | Duke | +3.3 | |
| 39 | 19-20 | WAKE | DUKE | Kill | Ashby Zubchevich | set Nikki Quinn | +2.8 |
| 40 | 19-21 | DUKE | WAKE | Serve err | Duke | +3.6 | |
| 41 | 20-21 | WAKE | DUKE | Serve err | Wake Forest | +2.9 | |
| 42 | 20-22 | DUKE | WAKE | Kill | Ryleigh Whitekettle | set Emma Keeping | +3.9 |
| 43 | 21-22 | WAKE | DUKE | Kill | Avery Hamlin | set Nikki Quinn | +3.0 |
| 44 | 21-23 | DUKE | WAKE | Kill | Ryleigh Whitekettle | set Emma Keeping | +4.4 |
| 45 | 22-23 | WAKE | DUKE | Attack err | Sanaa Williams | +3.0 | |
| 46 | 22-24 | DUKE | WAKE | Kill | Lyla Stewart | set Emma Keeping | +5.1 |
| 47 | 22-25 | WAKE | WAKE | Kill | Lyla Stewart | set Becca Bellows | +4.1 |
| Set 2 | |||||||
| 1 | 1-0 | WAKE | DUKE×3 | Kill | Avery Hamlin | set Nikki Quinn | +1.7 |
| 2 | 2-0 | DUKE | DUKE×3 | Kill | Zoe Gillen-Malveaux | set Nikki Quinn | +2.6 |
| 3 | 3-0 | DUKE | DUKE×3 | Blocked | Ryleigh Whitekettle | blk Nataly Moravec | +2.5 |
| 4 | 3-1 | DUKE | WAKE×4 | Kill | Catherine Burke | set Emma Keeping | +1.5 |
| 5 | 3-2 | WAKE | WAKE×4 | Ace | Wake Forest | aced Ashby Zubchevich | +2.6 |
| 6 | 3-3 | WAKE | WAKE×4 | Kill | Lyla Stewart | set Emma Keeping | +2.7 |
| 7 | 3-4 | WAKE | WAKE×4 | Blocked | Avery Hamlin | blk Sanaa Williams, Lyla Stewart | +2.8 |
| 8 | 4-4 | WAKE | DUKE×3 | Serve err | Wake Forest | +1.8 | |
| 9 | 5-4 | DUKE | DUKE×3 | Kill | Nataly Moravec | set Mailinh Godschall | +2.9 |
| 10 | 6-4 | DUKE | DUKE×3 | Attack err | Ryleigh Whitekettle | +2.9 | |
| 11 | 6-5 | DUKE | WAKE | Kill | Lyla Stewart | set Emma Keeping | +1.8 |
| 12 | 7-5 | WAKE | DUKE | Kill | Nataly Moravec | set Mailinh Godschall | +1.9 |
| 13 | 7-6 | DUKE | WAKE×4 | Kill | Lyla Stewart | set Becca Bellows | +1.8 |
| 14 | 7-7 | WAKE | WAKE×4 | Blocked | Zoe Gillen-Malveaux | blk Sanaa Williams, Amina Ndiaye | +3.0 |
| 15 | 7-8 | WAKE | WAKE×4 | Blocked | Ashby Zubchevich | blk Laiya Ebo, Sanaa Williams | +3.1 |
| 16 | 7-9 | WAKE | WAKE×4 | Kill | Laiya Ebo | set Becca Bellows | +3.1 |
| 17 | 8-9 | WAKE | DUKE×3 | Serve err | Wake Forest | +1.9 | |
| 18 | 9-9 | DUKE | DUKE×3 | Kill | Ashby Zubchevich | set Nikki Quinn | +3.2 |
| 19 | 10-9 | DUKE | DUKE×3 | Blocked | Laiya Ebo | blk Ashby Zubchevich, Breonna Goss | +3.3 |
| 20 | 10-10 | DUKE | WAKE | Serve err | Duke | +2.2 | |
| 21 | 11-10 | WAKE | DUKE | Kill | Ashby Zubchevich | set Nikki Quinn | +2.3 |
| 22 | 11-11 | DUKE | WAKE | Kill | Amina Ndiaye | set Becca Bellows | +2.2 |
| 23 | 12-11 | WAKE | DUKE | Kill | Ashby Zubchevich | set Nikki Quinn | +2.3 |
| 24 | 13-11 | DUKE | DUKE | Ace | Duke | aced Andrea Roman | +3.5 |
| 25 | 13-12 | DUKE | WAKE | Kill | Catherine Burke | set Emma Keeping | +2.2 |
| 26 | 14-12 | WAKE | DUKE | Blocked | Lyla Stewart | blk Avery Hamlin, Breonna Goss | +2.4 |
| 27 | 14-13 | DUKE | WAKE | Kill | Lyla Stewart | set Emma Keeping | +2.2 |
| 28 | 15-13 | WAKE | DUKE | Blocked | Lyla Stewart | blk Zoe Gillen-Malveaux, Avery Hamlin | +2.5 |
| 29 | 15-14 | DUKE | WAKE | Kill | Sanaa Williams | set Emma Keeping | +2.3 |
| 30 | 16-14 | WAKE | DUKE | Kill | Zoe Gillen-Malveaux | set Nikki Quinn | +2.6 |
| 31 | 16-15 | DUKE | WAKE | Serve err | Duke | +2.4 | |
| 32 | 16-16 | WAKE | WAKE | Blocked | Ashby Zubchevich | blk Sadie Poeck, Sanaa Williams | +4.2 |
| 33 | 17-16 | WAKE | DUKE | Serve err | Wake Forest | +3.0 | |
| 34 | 17-17 | DUKE | WAKE | Kill | Sanaa Williams | set Breonna Goss | +2.9 |
| 35 | 17-18 | WAKE | WAKE | Kill | Catherine Burke | set Becca Bellows | +4.8 |
| 36 | 18-18 | WAKE | DUKE | Kill | Nataly Moravec | set Nikki Quinn | +3.1 |
| 37 | 18-19 | DUKE | WAKE×3 | Serve err | Duke | +3.4 | |
| 38 | 18-20 | WAKE | WAKE×3 | Kill | Amina Ndiaye | set Andrea Roman | +5.0 |
| 39 | 18-21 | WAKE | WAKE×3 | Blocked | Avery Hamlin | blk Amina Ndiaye | +4.2 |
| 40 | 19-21 | WAKE | DUKE | Blocked | Amina Ndiaye | blk Breonna Goss, Avery Hamlin | +1.9 |
| 41 | 19-22 | DUKE | WAKE | Kill | Emma Keeping | set Andrea Roman | +2.9 |
| 42 | 20-22 | WAKE | DUKE | Serve err | Wake Forest | +1.8 | |
| 43 | 21-22 | DUKE | DUKE | Kill | Nataly Moravec | set Kyndal Ganoe | +4.5 |
| 44 | 21-23 | DUKE | WAKE | Kill | Ryleigh Whitekettle | set Emma Keeping | +4.4 |
| 45 | 22-23 | WAKE | DUKE×3 | Kill | Nataly Moravec | set Mailinh Godschall | +3.0 |
| 46 | 23-23 | DUKE | DUKE×3 | Attack err | Lyla Stewart | +7.7 | |
| 47 | 24-23 | DUKE | DUKE×3 | Ace | Duke | aced Dhru Lalaji | +10.2 |
| 48 | 24-24 | DUKE | WAKE | Kill | Ryleigh Whitekettle | set Emma Keeping | +6.8 |
| 49 | 24-25 | WAKE | WAKE | Kill | Lyla Stewart | set Becca Bellows | +10.2 |
| 50 | 25-25 | WAKE | DUKE | Serve err | Wake Forest | +6.7 | |
| 51 | 26-25 | DUKE | DUKE | Blocked | Lyla Stewart | blk Nikki Quinn, Zoe Gillen-Malveaux | +10.2 |
| 52 | 26-26 | DUKE | WAKE | Serve err | Duke | +6.8 | |
| 53 | 27-26 | WAKE | DUKE | Kill | Ashby Zubchevich | set Nataly Moravec | +6.8 |
| 54 | 27-27 | DUKE | WAKE | Serve err | Duke | +6.8 | |
| 55 | 28-27 | WAKE | DUKE | Kill | Ashby Zubchevich | set Nikki Quinn | +6.8 |
| 56 | 29-27 | DUKE | DUKE | Kill | Ashby Zubchevich | set Nikki Quinn | +10.2 |
| Set 3 | |||||||
| 1 | 1-0 | DUKE | DUKE×3 | Ace | Duke | aced Amina Ndiaye | +3.5 |
| 2 | 2-0 | DUKE | DUKE×3 | Ace | Duke | aced Amina Ndiaye | +3.5 |
| 3 | 3-0 | DUKE | DUKE×3 | Ace | Duke | aced Amina Ndiaye | +3.4 |
| 4 | 3-1 | DUKE | WAKE | Kill | Ryleigh Whitekettle | set Emma Keeping | +2.1 |
| 5 | 4-1 | WAKE | DUKE | Kill | Nataly Moravec | set Nikki Quinn | +2.3 |
| 6 | 4-2 | DUKE | WAKE×3 | Kill | Ryleigh Whitekettle | set Emma Keeping | +2.1 |
| 7 | 4-3 | WAKE | WAKE×3 | Ace | Wake Forest | aced Ashby Zubchevich | +3.5 |
| 8 | 4-4 | WAKE | WAKE×3 | Attack err | Avery Hamlin | +3.7 | |
| 9 | 5-4 | WAKE | DUKE | Kill | Nataly Moravec | set Nikki Quinn | +2.5 |
| 10 | 5-5 | DUKE | WAKE | Kill | Lyla Stewart | set Becca Bellows | +2.5 |
| 11 | 6-5 | WAKE | DUKE | Kill | Nataly Moravec | set Nikki Quinn | +2.6 |
| 12 | 6-6 | DUKE | WAKE | Serve err | Duke | +2.6 | |
| 13 | 7-6 | WAKE | DUKE | Kill | Ashby Zubchevich | set Nikki Quinn | +2.7 |
| 14 | 7-7 | DUKE | WAKE | Kill | Sadie Poeck | set Becca Bellows | +2.7 |
| 15 | 8-7 | WAKE | DUKE | Kill | Ashby Zubchevich | set Nikki Quinn | +2.8 |
| 16 | 8-8 | DUKE | WAKE | Serve err | Duke | +2.7 | |
| 17 | 8-9 | WAKE | WAKE | Attack err | Ashby Zubchevich | +4.3 | |
| 18 | 9-9 | WAKE | DUKE×3 | Attack err | Catherine Burke | +2.8 | |
| 19 | 10-9 | DUKE | DUKE×3 | Ace | Duke | +4.4 | |
| 20 | 11-9 | DUKE | DUKE×3 | Attack err | Ryleigh Whitekettle | +4.4 | |
| 21 | 11-10 | DUKE | WAKE | Serve err | Duke | +2.7 | |
| 22 | 12-10 | WAKE | DUKE×5 | Kill | Breonna Goss | set Nikki Quinn | +3.0 |
| 23 | 13-10 | DUKE | DUKE×5 | Kill | Avery Hamlin | set Nikki Quinn | +4.2 |
| 24 | 14-10 | DUKE | DUKE×5 | Attack err | Ryleigh Whitekettle | +3.7 | |
| 25 | 15-10 | DUKE | DUKE×5 | Kill | Nataly Moravec | set Nikki Quinn | +3.0 |
| 26 | 16-10 | DUKE | DUKE×5 | Attack err | Ryleigh Whitekettle | +2.3 | |
| 27 | 16-11 | DUKE | WAKE | Kill | Ryleigh Whitekettle | set Emma Keeping | +1.0 |
| 28 | 17-11 | WAKE | DUKE | Kill | Avery Hamlin | set Becca Bellows | +1.5 |
| 29 | 17-12 | DUKE | WAKE | Kill | Lyla Stewart | set Becca Bellows | +1.0 |
| 30 | 18-12 | WAKE | DUKE | Kill | Nataly Moravec | set Nikki Quinn | +1.4 |
| 31 | 19-12 | DUKE | DUKE | Ace | Duke | aced Andrea Roman | +1.3 |
| 32 | 19-13 | DUKE | WAKE | Bad set | Ashby Zubchevich | +0.5 | |
| 33 | 20-13 | WAKE | DUKE | Serve err | Wake Forest | +0.8 | |
| 34 | 20-14 | DUKE | WAKE | Serve err | Duke | +0.4 | |
| 35 | 21-14 | WAKE | DUKE | Kill | Ashby Zubchevich | set Nikki Quinn | +0.7 |
| 36 | 21-15 | DUKE | WAKE | Serve err | Duke | +0.3 | |
| 37 | 22-15 | WAKE | DUKE | Kill | Ashby Zubchevich | set Nikki Quinn | +0.5 |
| 38 | 22-16 | DUKE | WAKE | Blocked | Breonna Goss | blk Kelis Hawkins | +0.2 |
| 39 | 23-16 | WAKE | DUKE | Kill | Avery Hamlin | set Nikki Quinn | +0.4 |
| 40 | 23-17 | DUKE | WAKE | Kill | Laiya Ebo | set Emma Keeping | +0.1 |
| 41 | 24-17 | WAKE | DUKE | Attack err | Lyla Stewart | +0.2 | |
| 42 | 24-18 | DUKE | WAKE | Blocked | Zoe Gillen-Malveaux | blk Sanaa Williams, Amina Ndiaye | · |
| 43 | 25-18 | WAKE | DUKE | Kill | Zoe Gillen-Malveaux | set Mailinh Godschall | +0.1 |
| Set 4 | |||||||
| 1 | 0-1 | WAKE | WAKE | Kill | Lyla Stewart | set Becca Bellows | +3.5 |
| 2 | 0-2 | WAKE | WAKE | Attack err | Avery Hamlin | +3.5 | |
| 3 | 1-2 | WAKE | DUKE | Serve err | Wake Forest | +2.2 | |
| 4 | 2-2 | DUKE | DUKE | Kill | Nataly Moravec | set Kyndal Ganoe | +3.6 |
| 5 | 2-3 | DUKE | WAKE | Kill | Lyla Stewart | set Andrea Roman | +2.4 |
| 6 | 3-3 | WAKE | DUKE×5 | Kill | Nataly Moravec | set Nikki Quinn | +2.4 |
| 7 | 4-3 | DUKE | DUKE×5 | Bad set | Becca Bellows | +3.8 | |
| 8 | 5-3 | DUKE | DUKE×5 | Kill | Zoe Gillen-Malveaux | set Nikki Quinn | +3.7 |
| 9 | 6-3 | DUKE | DUKE×5 | Kill | Nataly Moravec | set Nikki Quinn | +3.6 |
| 10 | 7-3 | DUKE | DUKE×5 | Attack err | Sanaa Williams | +3.3 | |
| 11 | 7-4 | DUKE | WAKE | Serve err | Duke | +1.9 | |
| 12 | 8-4 | WAKE | DUKE | Blocked | Amina Ndiaye | blk Zoe Gillen-Malveaux, Nikki Quinn | +2.2 |
| 13 | 8-5 | DUKE | WAKE | Kill | Sadie Poeck | set Becca Bellows | +1.9 |
| 14 | 9-5 | WAKE | DUKE | Kill | Ashby Zubchevich | set Nikki Quinn | +2.3 |
| 15 | 9-6 | DUKE | WAKE | Kill | Kelis Hawkins | set Emma Keeping | +2.0 |
| 16 | 10-6 | WAKE | DUKE | Kill | Ashby Zubchevich | set Nikki Quinn | +2.3 |
| 17 | 11-6 | DUKE | DUKE | Attack err | Lyla Stewart | +3.0 | |
| 18 | 11-7 | DUKE | WAKE | Kill | Kelis Hawkins | set Emma Keeping | +1.6 |
| 19 | 11-8 | WAKE | WAKE | Kill | Lyla Stewart | set Emma Keeping | +3.0 |
| 20 | 12-8 | WAKE | DUKE | Kill | Ashby Zubchevich | set Nikki Quinn | +2.4 |
| 21 | 12-9 | DUKE | WAKE | Attack err | Avery Hamlin | +2.0 | |
| 22 | 13-9 | WAKE | DUKE | Kill | Avery Hamlin | set Nikki Quinn | +2.4 |
| 23 | 13-10 | DUKE | WAKE | Serve err | Duke | +2.0 | |
| 24 | 14-10 | WAKE | DUKE | Attack err | Lyla Stewart | +2.5 | |
| 25 | 15-10 | DUKE | DUKE | Kill | Zoe Gillen-Malveaux | set Nikki Quinn | +3.1 |
| 26 | 15-11 | DUKE | WAKE | Attack err | Nataly Moravec | +1.5 | |
| 27 | 16-11 | WAKE | DUKE | Kill | Nataly Moravec | set Nikki Quinn | +2.0 |
| 28 | 16-12 | DUKE | WAKE×3 | Kill | Amina Ndiaye | set Becca Bellows | +1.5 |
| 29 | 16-13 | WAKE | WAKE×3 | Kill | Ryleigh Whitekettle | set Emma Keeping | +3.0 |
| 30 | 16-14 | WAKE | WAKE×3 | Blocked | Zoe Gillen-Malveaux | blk Amina Ndiaye, Kelis Hawkins | +3.9 |
| 31 | 17-14 | WAKE | DUKE | Kill | Nikki Quinn | set Mailinh Godschall | +3.2 |
| 32 | 18-14 | DUKE | DUKE | Bad set | Becca Bellows | +4.0 | |
| 33 | 18-15 | DUKE | WAKE | Serve err | Duke | +1.9 | |
| 34 | 18-16 | WAKE | WAKE | Kill | Ryleigh Whitekettle | set Emma Keeping | +4.0 |
| 35 | 19-16 | WAKE | DUKE | Kill | Ashby Zubchevich | set Nikki Quinn | +3.5 |
| 36 | 19-17 | DUKE | WAKE×6 | Serve err | Duke | +2.7 | |
| 37 | 19-18 | WAKE | WAKE×6 | Blocked | Ashby Zubchevich | blk Ryleigh Whitekettle, Sanaa Williams | +5.5 |
| 38 | 19-19 | WAKE | WAKE×6 | Kill | Lyla Stewart | set Andrea Roman | +6.7 |
| 39 | 19-20 | WAKE | WAKE×6 | Kill | Sanaa Williams | set Emma Keeping | +7.5 |
| 40 | 19-21 | WAKE | WAKE×6 | Bad set | Mailinh Godschall | +7.3 | |
| 41 | 19-22 | WAKE | WAKE×6 | Blocked | Avery Hamlin | blk Lyla Stewart, Sanaa Williams | +5.9 |
| 42 | 20-22 | WAKE | DUKE | Kill | Avery Hamlin | set Mailinh Godschall | +2.5 |
| 43 | 21-22 | DUKE | DUKE | Kill | Nataly Moravec | set Mailinh Godschall | +6.1 |
| 44 | 21-23 | DUKE | WAKE | Serve err | Duke | +5.9 | |
| 45 | 22-23 | DUKE | NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected. | +4.0 | |||
| 46 | 22-24 | DUKE | WAKE | Kill | Lyla Stewart | set Becca Bellows | +6.9 |
| 47 | 23-24 | WAKE | DUKE | Kill | Nataly Moravec | set Nikki Quinn | +3.6 |
| 48 | 23-25 | DUKE | WAKE | Kill | Amina Ndiaye | set Becca Bellows | +10.6 |
| Set 5 | |||||||
| 1 | 0-1 | DUKE | WAKE | Blocked | Nataly Moravec | blk Sadie Poeck, Sanaa Williams | +6.0 |
| 2 | 0-2 | WAKE | WAKE | Ace | Wake Forest | aced Nataly Moravec | +9.0 |
| 3 | 1-2 | WAKE | DUKE | Attack err | Lyla Stewart | +5.6 | |
| 4 | 1-3 | DUKE | WAKE | Kill | Sanaa Williams | set Becca Bellows | +6.2 |
| 5 | 1-4 | WAKE | WAKE | Kill | Sadie Poeck | set Becca Bellows | +8.7 |
| 6 | 2-4 | WAKE | DUKE×3 | Kill | Avery Hamlin | set Nikki Quinn | +5.0 |
| 7 | 3-4 | DUKE | DUKE×3 | Kill | Ashby Zubchevich | set Nikki Quinn | +9.0 |
| 8 | 4-4 | DUKE | DUKE×3 | Kill | Zoe Gillen-Malveaux | set Nikki Quinn | +10.2 |
| 9 | 4-5 | DUKE | WAKE | Serve err | Duke | +7.1 | |
| 10 | 5-5 | WAKE | DUKE | Blocked | Kelis Hawkins | blk Zoe Gillen-Malveaux | +7.0 |
| 11 | 5-6 | DUKE | WAKE | Serve err | Duke | +7.5 | |
| 12 | 6-6 | WAKE | DUKE | Kill | Ashby Zubchevich | set Nikki Quinn | +7.4 |
| 13 | 6-7 | DUKE | WAKE | Kill | Ryleigh Whitekettle | set Emma Keeping | +7.9 |
| 14 | 7-7 | WAKE | DUKE×3 | Blocked | Ryleigh Whitekettle | blk Ashby Zubchevich, Breonna Goss | +7.8 |
| 15 | 8-7 | DUKE | DUKE×3 | Blocked | Ryleigh Whitekettle | blk Ashby Zubchevich, Breonna Goss | +12.8 |
| 16 | 9-7 | DUKE | DUKE×3 | Bad set | Emma Keeping | +12.5 | |
| 17 | 9-8 | DUKE | WAKE | Serve err | Duke | +7.2 | |
| 18 | 10-8 | WAKE | DUKE | Kill | Avery Hamlin | set Nikki Quinn | +8.9 |
| 19 | 11-8 | DUKE | DUKE | Kill | Avery Hamlin | set Nikki Quinn | +11.4 |
| 20 | 11-9 | DUKE | WAKE | Kill | Lyla Stewart | set Becca Bellows | +5.2 |
| 21 | 12-9 | WAKE | DUKE×3 | Kill | Breonna Goss | set Nikki Quinn | +7.8 |
| 22 | 13-9 | DUKE | DUKE×3 | Ace | Duke | +7.5 | |
| 23 | 14-9 | DUKE | DUKE×3 | Blocked | Amina Ndiaye | blk Zoe Gillen-Malveaux, Avery Hamlin | +3.2 |
| 24 | 14-10 | DUKE | WAKE | Kill | Sadie Poeck | set Becca Bellows | +0.5 |
| 25 | 15-10 | WAKE | DUKE | Kill | Avery Hamlin | set Nikki Quinn | +1.1 |
Score shown after each rally, Duke first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).