Duke vs NC State Volleyball: NC State Wins 3-1 (Sep 27)

Final · 4 setsSun, Sep 27, 2026ACCNX

1:3

NC State beat visiting Duke 3-1 (25-18, 25-22, 20-25, 25-21) on Sun, Sep 27, 2026. Britni Silver led NC State with 15 kills; Duke's Nataly Moravec had a match-high 21.

Data through Nov 3, 1:50 PM CT · final Sep 27

Set	1	2	3	4	Sets
DUKE	18	22	25	21	1
NC ST	25	25	20	25	3

Win probability

NC State above 50 · Duke below

Biggest swing: 6.3% to NC State — set 4, DUKE 20-21 NC ST. NC State ace on Nataly Moravec. NC ST win probability 81% → 87%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

DUKE 29.4%70.6% NC ST

Duke wins

3-0

5.5%

3-1

10.3%

3-2

13.6%

NC State wins

3-0

23.7%

3-1

27.1%

3-2

19.8%

DUKE break %: 38.6% vs this opp
NC ST break %: 42.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
NC StateAce+6.3%
NC State ace on Nataly Moravec
Set 4 · DUKE 20-21 NC ST · NC ST 81% → 87%
02
Avery HamlinAttack error+5.9%
Attack error by Avery Hamlin
Set 4 · DUKE 20-20 NC ST · NC ST 75% → 81%
03
Nataly MoravecAttack error+5.8%
Attack error by Nataly Moravec
Set 4 · DUKE 20-22 NC ST · NC ST 87% → 93%
04
Norah Busch&Clara VondranBlock+4.9%
Avery Hamlin stuffed by Norah Busch & Clara Vondran
Set 4 · DUKE 20-19 NC ST · NC ST 70% → 75%
05
DukeService error+4.4%
Duke service error
Set 4 · DUKE 21-23 NC ST · NC ST 90% → 94%
06
Jordan SmithKill+4.2%
Kill by Jordan Smith (set by Eva Long)
Set 4 · DUKE 21-24 NC ST · NC ST 94% → 99%
07
Clara VondranKill+3.7%
Kill by Clara Vondran (set by Jordan Smith)
Set 4 · DUKE 20-18 NC ST · NC ST 67% → 70%
08
Sophia GroomKill+3.6%
Kill by Sophia Groom
Set 2 · DUKE 18-19 NC ST · NC ST 82% → 85%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Dukeaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
8Nataly MoravecOH	4	21	7	52	.269	1	2	1	5	2	0	0	23
11Ashby ZubchevichOH	4	13	9	38	.105	0	1	1	11	3	1	0.5	14.5
5Breonna GossMB	4	7	1	10	.600	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	8.5
12Avery HamlinOH	4	3	4	15	-.067	0	1	3	4	0	0	0	4
0Zoe Gillen-MalveauxMB	4	3	2	11	.091	0	0	0	2	0	1	0.5	3.5
23Nikki QuinnS	4	1	0	3	.333	38	0	4	8	0	0	0	1
10Mailinh GodschallL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	4	1	0	10	0	0	0	1
19Alyce DonoghueL/DS	4	0	0	1	.000	2	0	0	9	0	0	0	0
4Kyndal GanoeL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0
2Grace ThrowerOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
22Charlotte GlassS	2	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
14Carlyle JohnsonOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		49	23	131	.198	45	5	11	51	7	6	3	86

NC Statehome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
42Britni SilverOH	4	15	9	35	.171	0	0	3	8	0	1	1	1.5	16.5
4Sophia GroomMB	4	14	0	21	.667	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	2	16
3Clara VondranOH	4	11	1	31	.323	0	1	5	9	0	0	2	1	13
17Talia FrancomMB	4	7	2	18	.278	0	1	2	4	0	1	2	2	10
23Jordan SmithOPP	4	4	4	20	.000	1	1	0	1	0	0	3	1.5	6.5
22Eva LongS	4	1	1	4	.000	43	2	0	7	0	0	2	1	4
7Kate KilpatrickL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
1Zuzanna MaciejewiczL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	4	0	3	14	2	0	0	0	0
14Norah BuschMB	2	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	2
31Elaisa VillarL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	2	2	3	0	0	0	0	2
Team totals		53	17	130	.277	48	7	15	49	5	2	16	10	95

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 DUKE · NC ST 7

Set 1

18-25

Longest run 3 DUKENC ST 4

Set 2

22-25

Longest run 4 DUKENC ST 5

Set 3

25-20

Longest run 3 DUKENC ST 4

Set 4

21-25

Longest run 5 DUKENC ST 7

Bars above the line = NC State leads, below = Duke leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Duke

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	56%10/18	36%5/14
2	56%9/16	33%5/15
3	67%8/12	44%7/16
4	44%8/18	43%6/14
5	62%8/13	33%4/12
6	47%8/17	50%8/16
All	54%51/94	40%35/87

NC State

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	69%11/16	44%7/16
2	69%9/13	57%12/21
3	56%9/16	25%3/12
4	53%8/15	56%10/18
5	57%8/14	47%7/15
6	54%7/13	33%4/12
All	60%52/87	46%43/94

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

181 rallies

#	DUKE-NC ST	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	NC ST	NC ST	Kill	Clara Vondran	set Zuzanna Maciejewicz	+2.1
2	1-1	NC ST	DUKE	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+1.5
3	1-2	DUKE	NC ST	Kill	Sophia Groom	set Eva Long	+1.5
4	1-3	NC ST	NC ST	Attack err	Nataly Moravec		+2.1
5	2-3	NC ST	DUKE	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+1.4
6	2-4	DUKE	NC ST	Serve err	Duke		+1.4
7	3-4	NC ST	DUKE	Serve err	NC State		+1.4
8	3-5	DUKE	NC ST×4	Kill	Britni Silver	set Eva Long	+1.5
9	3-6	NC ST	NC ST×4	Kill	Talia Francom	set Eva Long	+2.0
10	3-7	NC ST	NC ST×4	Blocked	Zoe Gillen-Malveaux	blk Britni Silver, Talia Francom	+1.7
11	3-8	NC ST	NC ST×4	Kill	Talia Francom	set Eva Long	+1.5
12	4-8	NC ST	DUKE	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Alyce Donoghue	+0.9
13	5-8	DUKE	DUKE	Attack err	Britni Silver		+1.6
14	5-9	DUKE	NC ST×4	Kill	Britni Silver	set Eva Long	+1.2
15	5-10	NC ST	NC ST×4	Blocked	Ashby Zubchevich	blk Jordan Smith, Talia Francom	+1.5
16	5-11	NC ST	NC ST×4	Kill	Talia Francom	set Eva Long	+1.2
17	5-12	NC ST	NC ST×4	Attack err	Ashby Zubchevich		+0.9
18	6-12	NC ST	DUKE	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Nikki Quinn	+0.5
19	7-12	DUKE	DUKE	Attack err	Jordan Smith		+0.9
20	7-13	DUKE	NC ST	Kill	Talia Francom	set Eva Long	+0.8
21	8-13	NC ST	DUKE	Serve err	NC State		+0.6
22	9-13	DUKE	DUKE	Ace	Duke		+1.2
23	9-14	DUKE	NC ST	Kill	Clara Vondran	set Eva Long	+1.0
24	10-14	NC ST	DUKE	Serve err	NC State		+0.8
25	10-15	DUKE	NC ST	Kill	Sophia Groom	set Britni Silver	+1.0
26	11-15	NC ST	DUKE	Kill	Nikki Quinn	set Nikki Quinn	+0.8
27	11-16	DUKE	NC ST	Kill	Eva Long		+1.0
28	11-17	NC ST	NC ST	Kill	Britni Silver	set Eva Long	+1.1
29	12-17	NC ST	DUKE	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+0.5
30	12-18	DUKE	NC ST	Kill	Britni Silver	set Eva Long	+0.7
31	13-18	NC ST	DUKE	Serve err	NC State		+0.5
32	13-19	DUKE	NC ST	Kill	Britni Silver	set Zuzanna Maciejewicz	+0.7
33	13-20	NC ST	NC ST	Ace	NC State		+0.6
34	14-20	NC ST	DUKE	Kill	Breonna Goss	set Nikki Quinn	+0.2
35	14-21	DUKE	NC ST	Kill	Britni Silver	set Eva Long	+0.3
36	15-21	NC ST	DUKE	Serve err	NC State		+0.2
37	15-22	DUKE	NC ST	Kill	Clara Vondran	set Zuzanna Maciejewicz	+0.3
38	16-22	NC ST	DUKE×3	Kill	Breonna Goss	set Nikki Quinn	+0.1
39	17-22	DUKE	DUKE×3	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+0.3
40	18-22	DUKE	DUKE×3	Attack err	Britni Silver		+0.6
41	18-23	DUKE	NC ST×3	Kill	Sophia Groom	set Eva Long	+0.7
42	18-24	NC ST	NC ST×3	Ace	NC State	aced Ashby Zubchevich	+0.4
43	18-25	NC ST	NC ST×3	Blocked	Nataly Moravec	blk Eva Long, Sophia Groom	+0.1
Set 2
1	1-0	DUKE	DUKE	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+1.9
2	1-1	DUKE	NC ST	Kill	Clara Vondran	set Zuzanna Maciejewicz	+1.3
3	2-1	NC ST	DUKE	Kill	Zoe Gillen-Malveaux	set Nikki Quinn	+1.4
4	3-1	DUKE	DUKE	Attack err	Eva Long		+2.0
5	3-2	DUKE	NC ST	Kill	Clara Vondran	set Eva Long	+1.3
6	4-2	NC ST	DUKE	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+1.5
7	4-3	DUKE	NC ST×3	Kill	Sophia Groom	set Clara Vondran	+1.3
8	4-4	NC ST	NC ST×3	Bad set	Nikki Quinn		+2.0
9	4-5	NC ST	NC ST×3	Kill	Sophia Groom	set Eva Long	+2.0
10	5-5	NC ST	DUKE	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Nikki Quinn	+1.4
11	5-6	DUKE	NC ST	Attack err	Ashby Zubchevich		+1.4
12	6-6	NC ST	DUKE	Kill	Breonna Goss	set Nikki Quinn	+1.4
13	6-7	DUKE	NC ST	Serve err	Duke		+1.4
14	7-7	NC ST	DUKE	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Nikki Quinn	+1.5
15	7-8	DUKE	NC ST	Serve err	Duke		+1.4
16	8-8	NC ST	DUKE	Attack err	Jordan Smith		+1.5
17	8-9	DUKE	NC ST	Kill	Clara Vondran	set Eva Long	+1.5
18	9-9	NC ST	DUKE	Serve err	NC State		+1.5
19	10-9	DUKE	DUKE	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+2.4
20	10-10	DUKE	NC ST	Serve err	Duke		+1.6
21	10-11	NC ST	NC ST	Attack err	Ashby Zubchevich		+2.3
22	11-11	NC ST	DUKE	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+1.6
23	11-12	DUKE	NC ST	Kill	Sophia Groom	set Eva Long	+1.6
24	12-12	NC ST	DUKE	Serve err	NC State		+1.7
25	12-13	DUKE	NC ST	Kill	Britni Silver	set Eva Long	+1.7
26	12-14	NC ST	NC ST	Kill	Talia Francom		+2.4
27	13-14	NC ST	DUKE	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Nikki Quinn	+1.6
28	13-15	DUKE	NC ST	Serve err	Duke		+1.7
29	14-15	NC ST	DUKE×4	Attack err	Britni Silver		+1.6
30	15-15	DUKE	DUKE×4	Kill	Avery Hamlin	set Nikki Quinn	+2.8
31	16-15	DUKE	DUKE×4	Attack err	Talia Francom		+3.1
32	17-15	DUKE	DUKE×4	Kill	Avery Hamlin	set Nikki Quinn	+3.3
33	17-16	DUKE	NC ST	Blocked	Breonna Goss	blk Talia Francom	+2.0
34	18-16	NC ST	DUKE	Serve err	NC State		+2.4
35	18-17	DUKE	NC ST×5	Kill	Talia Francom	set Eva Long	+2.1
36	18-18	NC ST	NC ST×5	Kill	Jordan Smith	set Eva Long	+3.5
37	18-19	NC ST	NC ST×5	Kill	Sophia Groom		+3.6
38	18-20	NC ST	NC ST×5	Attack err	Nataly Moravec		+3.3
39	18-21	NC ST	NC ST×5	Blocked	Nataly Moravec	blk Sophia Groom, Jordan Smith	+2.7
40	19-21	NC ST	DUKE	Kill	Zoe Gillen-Malveaux	set Nikki Quinn	+1.3
41	19-22	DUKE	NC ST	Kill	Sophia Groom	set Eva Long	+1.9
42	19-23	NC ST	NC ST	Kill	Clara Vondran	set Eva Long	+1.7
43	20-23	NC ST	DUKE×3	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+0.5
44	21-23	DUKE	DUKE×3	Attack err	Britni Silver		+1.6
45	22-23	DUKE	DUKE×3	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Nataly Moravec	+3.1
46	22-24	DUKE	NC ST	Blocked	Ashby Zubchevich	blk Eva Long, Sophia Groom	+3.4
47	22-25	NC ST	NC ST	Attack err	Ashby Zubchevich		+2.5
Set 3
1	1-0	NC ST	DUKE	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+0.7
2	1-1	DUKE	NC ST×3	Kill	Clara Vondran	set Eva Long	+0.7
3	1-2	NC ST	NC ST×3	Ace	NC State	aced Ashby Zubchevich	+1.0
4	1-3	NC ST	NC ST×3	Blocked	Avery Hamlin	blk Clara Vondran, Sophia Groom	+0.9
5	2-3	NC ST	DUKE×3	Attack err	Jordan Smith		+0.6
6	3-3	DUKE	DUKE×3	Attack err	Jordan Smith		+1.0
7	4-3	DUKE	DUKE×3	Kill	Zoe Gillen-Malveaux		+1.1
8	4-4	DUKE	NC ST	Kill	Sophia Groom	set Eva Long	+0.7
9	5-4	NC ST	DUKE	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+0.8
10	6-4	DUKE	DUKE	Ace	Duke	aced Zuzanna Maciejewicz	+1.2
11	6-5	DUKE	NC ST×4	Kill	Clara Vondran	set Eva Long	+0.8
12	6-6	NC ST	NC ST×4	Ace	NC State		+1.1
13	6-7	NC ST	NC ST×4	Kill	Britni Silver	set Eva Long	+1.1
14	6-8	NC ST	NC ST×4	Blocked	Zoe Gillen-Malveaux	blk Britni Silver	+1.1
15	7-8	NC ST	DUKE×3	Serve err	NC State		+0.7
16	8-8	DUKE	DUKE×3	Attack err	Britni Silver		+1.2
17	9-8	DUKE	DUKE×3	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Nikki Quinn	+1.3
18	9-9	DUKE	NC ST	Serve err	Duke		+0.8
19	10-9	NC ST	DUKE×3	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Nikki Quinn	+0.9
20	11-9	DUKE	DUKE×3	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Alyce Donoghue	+1.4
21	12-9	DUKE	DUKE×3	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Nikki Quinn	+1.4
22	12-10	DUKE	NC ST	Kill	Britni Silver	set Eva Long	+0.8
23	13-10	NC ST	DUKE	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Nikki Quinn	+1.0
24	14-10	DUKE	DUKE	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Mailinh Godschall	+1.3
25	14-11	DUKE	NC ST	Serve err	Duke		+0.7
26	15-11	NC ST	DUKE	Serve err	NC State		+0.9
27	16-11	DUKE	DUKE	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+1.1
28	16-12	DUKE	NC ST	Attack err	Avery Hamlin		+0.6
29	17-12	NC ST	DUKE	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+0.8
30	17-13	DUKE	NC ST	Kill	Sophia Groom	set Eva Long	+0.5
31	18-13	NC ST	DUKE	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+0.8
32	19-13	DUKE	DUKE	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Mailinh Godschall	+0.8
33	19-14	DUKE	NC ST	Serve err	Duke		+0.3
34	19-15	NC ST	NC ST	Kill	Britni Silver	set Eva Long	+0.7
35	20-15	NC ST	DUKE	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+0.8
36	20-16	DUKE	NC ST	Kill	Sophia Groom	set Eva Long	+0.4
37	21-16	NC ST	DUKE×3	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Nikki Quinn	+0.7
38	22-16	DUKE	DUKE×3	Blocked	Britni Silver	blk Charlotte Glass, Breonna Goss	+0.6
39	23-16	DUKE	DUKE×3	Blocked	Talia Francom	blk Breonna Goss, Ashby Zubchevich	+0.3
40	23-17	DUKE	NC ST×4	Kill	Britni Silver	set Eva Long	+0.1
41	23-18	NC ST	NC ST×4	Ace	NC State	aced Nataly Moravec	+0.2
42	23-19	NC ST	NC ST×4	Blocked	Ashby Zubchevich	blk Norah Busch, Jordan Smith	+0.3
43	23-20	NC ST	NC ST×4	Kill	Norah Busch	set Eva Long	+0.6
44	24-20	NC ST	DUKE	Kill	Breonna Goss	set Nikki Quinn	+0.9
45	25-20	DUKE	DUKE	Attack err	Britni Silver		+0.4
Set 4
1	1-0	DUKE	DUKE	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Mailinh Godschall	+2.8
2	1-1	DUKE	NC ST	Serve err	Duke		+1.8
3	1-2	NC ST	NC ST	Kill	Clara Vondran	set Eva Long	+2.6
4	2-2	NC ST	DUKE	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+1.9
5	2-3	DUKE	NC ST	Kill	Sophia Groom	set Eva Long	+1.8
6	3-3	NC ST	DUKE×4	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+1.9
7	4-3	DUKE	DUKE×4	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Mailinh Godschall	+3.0
8	5-3	DUKE	DUKE×4	Ace	Duke		+3.1
9	6-3	DUKE	DUKE×4	Ace	Duke	aced Zuzanna Maciejewicz	+3.2
10	6-4	DUKE	NC ST	Attack err	Ashby Zubchevich		+1.9
11	7-4	NC ST	DUKE×5	Serve err	NC State		+2.2
12	8-4	DUKE	DUKE×5	Attack err	Britni Silver		+3.1
13	9-4	DUKE	DUKE×5	Kill	Breonna Goss		+2.9
14	10-4	DUKE	DUKE×5	Kill	Charlotte Glass	set Eva Long	+2.6
15	11-4	DUKE	DUKE×5	Ace	Duke		+2.1
16	11-5	DUKE	NC ST	Kill	Sophia Groom	set Eva Long	+1.1
17	11-6	NC ST	NC ST	Attack err	Nataly Moravec		+2.0
18	12-6	NC ST	DUKE	Serve err	NC State		+1.8
19	12-7	DUKE	NC ST	Kill	Britni Silver	set Eva Long	+1.3
20	12-8	NC ST	NC ST	Kill	Britni Silver	set Eva Long	+2.4
21	13-8	NC ST	DUKE	Kill	Breonna Goss	set Nikki Quinn	+2.1
22	13-9	DUKE	NC ST	Kill	Jordan Smith	set Eva Long	+1.6
23	14-9	NC ST	DUKE	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+2.1
24	14-10	DUKE	NC ST	Kill	Talia Francom	set Eva Long	+1.6
25	15-10	NC ST	DUKE	Kill	Avery Hamlin	set Nikki Quinn	+2.1
26	15-11	DUKE	NC ST	Kill	Jordan Smith	set Eva Long	+1.6
27	16-11	NC ST	DUKE	Attack err	Clara Vondran		+2.1
28	16-12	DUKE	NC ST	Attack err	Nataly Moravec		+1.5
29	17-12	NC ST	DUKE	Serve err	NC State		+2.1
30	17-13	DUKE	NC ST	Kill	Britni Silver	set Eva Long	+1.5
31	17-14	NC ST	NC ST	Attack err	Ashby Zubchevich		+2.9
32	18-14	NC ST	DUKE	Serve err	NC State		+2.7
33	19-14	DUKE	DUKE	Attack err	Britni Silver		+3.0
34	19-15	DUKE	NC ST	Serve err	Duke		+1.3
35	20-15	NC ST	DUKE	Kill	Breonna Goss	set Nikki Quinn	+2.1
36	20-16	DUKE	NC ST×7	Kill	Britni Silver	set Eva Long	+1.2
37	20-17	NC ST	NC ST×7	Ace	NC State	aced Ashby Zubchevich	+2.6
38	20-18	NC ST	NC ST×7	Kill	Clara Vondran	set Jordan Smith	+3.7
39	20-19	NC ST	NC ST×7	Blocked	Avery Hamlin	blk Norah Busch, Clara Vondran	+4.9
40	20-20	NC ST	NC ST×7	Attack err	Avery Hamlin		+5.9
41	20-21	NC ST	NC ST×7	Ace	NC State	aced Nataly Moravec	+6.3
42	20-22	NC ST	NC ST×7	Attack err	Nataly Moravec		+5.8
43	21-22	NC ST	DUKE	Serve err	NC State		+3.1
44	21-23	DUKE	NC ST×3	Serve err	Duke		+4.4
45	21-24	NC ST	NC ST×3	Kill	Jordan Smith	set Eva Long	+4.2
46	21-25	NC ST	NC ST×3	Kill	Sophia Groom	set Eva Long	+1.4

Score shown after each rally, Duke first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

NC State def. Duke 3–1