UTSA vs East Carolina Volleyball: East Carolina Wins 3-0

FinalSun, Oct 4, 2026ESPN+

0:3

RallyIQ pre-match: East Carolina 51.2% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 4, 11:56 AM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

East Carolina beat visiting UTSA 3-0 (25-17, 25-15, 25-13) on Sun, Oct 4, 2026. East Carolina's Kai Bailey led with 10 kills, and Ellie Pate added 7 digs.

Data through Nov 3, 3:00 PM CT · final Oct 4

Set	1	2	3	Sets
UTSA	17	15	13	0
E CAR	25	25	25	3

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Kai Bailey hit .588 with 10 kills as East Carolina rolled past UTSA.

Win probability never moved more than 2.8 points on one rally; UTSA topped out at 51% in Set 1. RallyIQ gave East Carolina 51% before first serve.

UTSAEast Carolina

Break %+31.0 pts
21.752.7
39 of 74 on serve vs 10 of 46, so UTSA's sideout was 47.3%.
Hitting+.275
.145.420
Kills and errors: 41–7 vs 31–19.
Longest run+4
37
Up 5–3 in the second set, East Carolina scored 7 straight to make it 12–3. Final score of the set: 25–15.

East Carolina above 50UTSA belowMax swing 2.8%

UTSAEast Carolina

Aces: UTSA 1·East Carolina 4
Serve err: UTSA 7·East Carolina 4
Blocks: UTSA 2·East Carolina 60 BS · 4 BA vs 1 BS · 10 BA
Digs: UTSA 29·East Carolina 27

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

East Carolina above 50 · UTSA below

Biggest swing: 2.8% to East Carolina — set 1, UTSA 3-5 E CAR. Kill by Angeles Alderete (set by Ellie Pate). E CAR win probability 54% → 57%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

UTSA 30.1%69.9% E CAR

UTSA wins

3-0

5.7%

3-1

10.6%

3-2

13.8%

East Carolina wins

3-0

23.2%

3-1

26.8%

3-2

19.9%

UTSA break %: 37.6% vs this opp
E CAR break %: 41.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Angeles AldereteKill+2.8%
Kill by Angeles Alderete (set by Ellie Pate)
Set 1 · UTSA 3-5 E CAR · E CAR 54% → 57%
02
Sydney BryantAttack error+2.8%
Attack error by Sydney Bryant
Set 1 · UTSA 5-8 E CAR · E CAR 57% → 60%
03
Megan HawkinsBad set+2.8%
Bad set by Megan Hawkins
Set 1 · UTSA 10-14 E CAR · E CAR 61% → 64%
04
Ledisi KpeaBad set+2.8%
Bad set by Ledisi Kpea
Set 1 · UTSA 2-3 E CAR · E CAR 51% → 54%
05
Ally Tribe&Ledisi KpeaBlock+2.7%
Ellie Pate stuffed by Ally Tribe & Ledisi Kpea
Set 1 · UTSA 10-12 E CAR · UTSA 38% → 41%
06
Angeles AldereteKill+2.7%
Kill by Angeles Alderete (set by Taryn Gilreath)
Set 2 · UTSA 2-4 E CAR · E CAR 72% → 75%
07
Ellie PateKill+2.6%
Kill by Ellie Pate (set by Taryn Gilreath)
Set 1 · UTSA 7-11 E CAR · E CAR 60% → 63%
08
Angeles AldereteKill+2.6%
Kill by Angeles Alderete (set by Taryn Gilreath)
Set 2 · UTSA 2-5 E CAR · E CAR 75% → 77%

Box score

Official NCAA box

UTSAaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
4Caroline TredwellMB	3	10	0	12	.833	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	10
15Sydney BryantOH	3	7	3	15	.267	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	7
6Isabella ArroyaveOH	3	5	7	20	-.100	0	1	4	1	0	1	0.5	6.5
10Makinsey JonesMB	3	2	1	8	.125	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
21Valeria OrtizS	3	0	1	3	-.333	24	0	1	4	0	0	0	0
7Ledisi KpeaMB	2	1	3	8	-.250	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
5Ally TribeOH	3	5	4	16	.063	0	0	0	2	1	1	0.5	5.5
3Alyssa ManitzasL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	14	1	0	0	0
12Megan HawkinsS	2	1	0	1	1.000	4	0	0	2	0	0	0	1
0Giada ObregonDS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
1Raegan RamirezDS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0
8Sydney BlackDS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0
Team totals		31	19	83	.145	29	1	7	29	4	4	2	45

East Carolinahome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
11Kai BaileyMB	3	10	0	17	.588	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	2.5	12.5
12Aulie HuffOH	3	7	3	17	.235	0	2	0	3	0	0	4	2	11
19Ellie PateOH	3	7	1	19	.316	1	1	1	7	1	0	0	0	8
3Angeles AldereteOH	3	7	2	14	.357	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	7
6Ekwe AnwahMB	3	6	0	7	.857	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	7
1Taryn GilreathS	3	4	1	7	.429	27	0	1	4	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
4Emma OrtizL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	0	5	0	0	0	0	1
8Allison ButrumL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
21Jaci HallOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		41	7	81	.420	30	4	4	27	1	1	10	6	75

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 3 UTSA · E CAR 7

Set 1

17-25

Longest run 2 UTSAE CAR 4

Set 2

15-25

Longest run 3 UTSAE CAR 7

Set 3

13-25

Longest run 2 UTSAE CAR 3

Bars above the line = East Carolina leads, below = UTSA leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

UTSA

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	78%7/9	29%2/7
2	78%7/9	13%1/8
3	46%6/13	22%2/9
4	32%6/19	33%3/9
5	36%5/14	14%1/7
6	40%4/10	17%1/6
All	47%35/74	22%10/46

East Carolina

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	78%7/9	25%2/8
2	78%7/9	22%2/9
3	86%6/7	33%3/9
4	75%6/8	65%11/17
5	86%6/7	65%11/17
6	67%4/6	71%10/14
All	78%36/46	53%39/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

120 rallies

#	UTSA-E CAR	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	E CAR	UTSA	Kill	Sydney Bryant	set Valeria Ortiz	+1.7
2	1-1	UTSA	E CAR	Bad set	Caroline Tredwell		+1.7
3	2-1	E CAR	UTSA	Kill	Caroline Tredwell	set Valeria Ortiz	+1.8
4	2-2	UTSA	E CAR	Bad set	Valeria Ortiz		+1.8
5	2-3	E CAR	E CAR	Bad set	Ledisi Kpea		+2.8
6	3-3	E CAR	UTSA	Attack err	Aulie Huff		+1.8
7	3-4	UTSA	E CAR	Kill	Aulie Huff	set Taryn Gilreath	+1.8
8	3-5	E CAR	E CAR	Kill	Angeles Alderete	set Ellie Pate	+2.8
9	4-5	E CAR	UTSA	Kill	Megan Hawkins		+1.8
10	4-6	UTSA	E CAR	Serve err	UTSA		+1.9
11	5-6	E CAR	UTSA	Attack err	Aulie Huff		+1.8
12	5-7	UTSA	E CAR	Kill	Kai Bailey	set Ally Tribe	+1.9
13	5-8	E CAR	E CAR	Attack err	Sydney Bryant		+2.8
14	6-8	E CAR	UTSA	Kill	Caroline Tredwell	set Megan Hawkins	+1.7
15	6-9	UTSA	E CAR	Kill	Angeles Alderete	set Taryn Gilreath	+1.9
16	7-9	E CAR	UTSA	Attack err	Angeles Alderete		+1.7
17	7-10	UTSA	E CAR	Kill	Ellie Pate	set Taryn Gilreath	+1.9
18	7-11	E CAR	E CAR	Kill	Ellie Pate	set Taryn Gilreath	+2.6
19	8-11	E CAR	UTSA	Kill	Caroline Tredwell	set Valeria Ortiz	+1.5
20	8-12	UTSA	E CAR	Kill	Taryn Gilreath		+1.7
21	9-12	E CAR	UTSA	Serve err	East Carolina		+1.5
22	10-12	UTSA	UTSA	Blocked	Ellie Pate	blk Ally Tribe, Ledisi Kpea	+2.7
23	10-13	UTSA	E CAR×4	Kill	Ellie Pate	set Angeles Alderete	+2.1
24	10-14	E CAR	E CAR×4	Bad set	Megan Hawkins		+2.8
25	10-15	E CAR	E CAR×4	Blocked	Ally Tribe	blk Ekwe Anwah, Aulie Huff	+2.2
26	10-16	E CAR	E CAR×4	Ace	East Carolina	aced Ally Tribe	+1.7
27	11-16	E CAR	UTSA	Kill	Isabella Arroyave	set Megan Hawkins	+0.8
28	11-17	UTSA	E CAR×3	Attack err	Ledisi Kpea		+1.1
29	11-18	E CAR	E CAR×3	Blocked	Ledisi Kpea	blk Kai Bailey	+1.1
30	11-19	E CAR	E CAR×3	Attack err	Sydney Bryant		+0.6
31	12-19	E CAR	UTSA	Kill	Ally Tribe	set Megan Hawkins	+0.2
32	12-20	UTSA	E CAR×3	Kill	Aulie Huff	set Taryn Gilreath	+0.3
33	12-21	E CAR	E CAR×3	Kill	Angeles Alderete	set Megan Hawkins	+0.2
34	12-22	E CAR	E CAR×3	Attack err	Sydney Bryant		+0.1
35	13-22	E CAR	UTSA	Kill	Caroline Tredwell	set Megan Hawkins	·
36	14-22	UTSA	UTSA	Kill	Sydney Bryant	set Valeria Ortiz	·
37	14-23	UTSA	E CAR	Kill	Kai Bailey	set Taryn Gilreath	+0.1
38	15-23	E CAR	UTSA	Serve err	East Carolina		·
39	15-24	UTSA	E CAR	Blocked	Isabella Arroyave	blk Kai Bailey, Taryn Gilreath	·
40	16-24	E CAR	UTSA	Kill	Caroline Tredwell	set Valeria Ortiz	·
41	17-24	UTSA	UTSA	Serve err	UTSA		·
42	17-25	UTSA	E CAR	Kill	Ekwe Anwah	set Taryn Gilreath	·
Set 2
1	0-1	UTSA	E CAR	Kill	Ellie Pate	set Taryn Gilreath	+1.7
2	1-1	E CAR	UTSA	Kill	Caroline Tredwell	set Valeria Ortiz	+1.7
3	1-2	UTSA	E CAR	Serve err	UTSA		+1.7
4	2-2	E CAR	UTSA	Kill	Caroline Tredwell	set Valeria Ortiz	+1.7
5	2-3	UTSA	E CAR×3	Attack err	Isabella Arroyave		+1.8
6	2-4	E CAR	E CAR×3	Kill	Angeles Alderete	set Taryn Gilreath	+2.7
7	2-5	E CAR	E CAR×3	Kill	Angeles Alderete	set Taryn Gilreath	+2.6
8	3-5	E CAR	UTSA	Kill	Ally Tribe	set Valeria Ortiz	+1.6
9	3-6	UTSA	E CAR×7	Kill	Aulie Huff	set Taryn Gilreath	+1.7
10	3-7	E CAR	E CAR×7	Blocked	Isabella Arroyave	blk Kai Bailey, Aulie Huff	+2.4
11	3-8	E CAR	E CAR×7	Attack err	Makinsey Jones		+2.1
12	3-9	E CAR	E CAR×7	Attack err	Isabella Arroyave		+1.8
13	3-10	E CAR	E CAR×7	Kill	Angeles Alderete	set Taryn Gilreath	+1.4
14	3-11	E CAR	E CAR×7	Attack err	Ledisi Kpea		+1.1
15	3-12	E CAR	E CAR×7	Kill	Aulie Huff	set Taryn Gilreath	+0.7
16	4-12	E CAR	UTSA	Kill	Sydney Bryant	set Valeria Ortiz	+0.3
17	4-13	UTSA	E CAR	Serve err	UTSA		+0.5
18	4-14	E CAR	E CAR	Kill	Kai Bailey		+0.4
19	5-14	E CAR	UTSA	Kill	Ledisi Kpea	set Valeria Ortiz	+0.2
20	6-14	UTSA	UTSA	Kill	Caroline Tredwell		+0.4
21	6-15	UTSA	E CAR	Serve err	UTSA		+0.4
22	7-15	E CAR	UTSA	Kill	Sydney Bryant	set Valeria Ortiz	+0.2
23	8-15	UTSA	UTSA	Kill	Caroline Tredwell	set Valeria Ortiz	+0.6
24	8-16	UTSA	E CAR	Kill	Ellie Pate	set Taryn Gilreath	+0.5
25	9-16	E CAR	UTSA	Bad set	Angeles Alderete		+0.3
26	9-17	UTSA	E CAR	Kill	Taryn Gilreath		+0.5
27	10-17	E CAR	UTSA	Kill	Ally Tribe	set Valeria Ortiz	+0.3
28	10-18	UTSA	E CAR×3	Kill	Aulie Huff	set Taryn Gilreath	+0.5
29	10-19	E CAR	E CAR×3	Kill	Ekwe Anwah		+0.4
30	10-20	E CAR	E CAR×3	Attack err	Ally Tribe		+0.2
31	11-20	E CAR	UTSA×3	Serve err	East Carolina		·
32	12-20	UTSA	UTSA×3	Attack err	Angeles Alderete		+0.1
33	13-20	UTSA	UTSA×3	Attack err	Aulie Huff		+0.2
34	13-21	UTSA	E CAR	Kill	Ekwe Anwah	set Taryn Gilreath	+0.3
35	14-21	E CAR	UTSA	Kill	Isabella Arroyave	set Valeria Ortiz	+0.1
36	15-21	UTSA	UTSA	Ace	Isabella Arroyave	aced Ellie Pate	+0.3
37	15-22	UTSA	E CAR×4	Kill	Angeles Alderete	set Taryn Gilreath	+0.4
38	15-23	E CAR	E CAR×4	Kill	Taryn Gilreath	set Valeria Ortiz	+0.2
39	15-24	E CAR	E CAR×4	Ace	East Carolina		+0.1
40	15-25	E CAR	E CAR×4	Kill	Taryn Gilreath	set Emma Ortiz	·
Set 3
1	1-0	E CAR	UTSA	Kill	Sydney Bryant	set Valeria Ortiz	+1.1
2	2-0	UTSA	UTSA	Kill	Isabella Arroyave	set Valeria Ortiz	+1.7
3	2-1	UTSA	E CAR	Kill	Kai Bailey	set Taryn Gilreath	+1.1
4	2-2	E CAR	E CAR	Ace	East Carolina	aced Alyssa Manitzas	+1.7
5	3-2	E CAR	UTSA	Kill	Caroline Tredwell	set Valeria Ortiz	+1.2
6	3-3	UTSA	E CAR	Kill	Aulie Huff	set Taryn Gilreath	+1.1
7	3-4	E CAR	E CAR	Kill	Ekwe Anwah		+1.8
8	4-4	E CAR	UTSA	Kill	Isabella Arroyave	set Valeria Ortiz	+1.2
9	4-5	UTSA	E CAR×3	Attack err	Isabella Arroyave		+1.2
10	4-6	E CAR	E CAR×3	Blocked	Isabella Arroyave	blk Ekwe Anwah, Aulie Huff	+1.8
11	4-7	E CAR	E CAR×3	Kill	Ekwe Anwah	set Taryn Gilreath	+1.7
12	5-7	E CAR	UTSA	Kill	Makinsey Jones	set Valeria Ortiz	+1.0
13	5-8	UTSA	E CAR	Serve err	UTSA		+1.2
14	5-9	E CAR	E CAR	Blocked	Ally Tribe	blk Kai Bailey, Aulie Huff	+1.6
15	6-9	E CAR	UTSA	Serve err	East Carolina		+0.9
16	6-10	UTSA	E CAR	Kill	Kai Bailey	set Taryn Gilreath	+1.1
17	6-11	E CAR	E CAR	Ace	East Carolina	aced Raegan Ramirez	+1.4
18	7-11	E CAR	UTSA	Kill	Ally Tribe	set Valeria Ortiz	+0.7
19	7-12	UTSA	E CAR×3	Serve err	UTSA		+0.9
20	7-13	E CAR	E CAR×3	Kill	Kai Bailey		+1.1
21	7-14	E CAR	E CAR×3	Kill	Kai Bailey	set Taryn Gilreath	+0.8
22	8-14	E CAR	UTSA	Kill	Sydney Bryant	set Caroline Tredwell	+0.4
23	8-15	UTSA	E CAR	Kill	Kai Bailey	set Taryn Gilreath	+0.5
24	9-15	E CAR	UTSA	Kill	Sydney Bryant	set Valeria Ortiz	+0.3
25	10-15	UTSA	UTSA	Blocked	Taryn Gilreath	blk Isabella Arroyave, Makinsey Jones	+0.8
26	10-16	UTSA	E CAR	Kill	Ekwe Anwah	set Taryn Gilreath	+0.7
27	10-17	E CAR	E CAR	Kill	Ellie Pate	set Valeria Ortiz	+0.7
28	11-17	E CAR	UTSA	Kill	Makinsey Jones	set Valeria Ortiz	+0.3
29	11-18	UTSA	E CAR	Kill	Ellie Pate	set Taryn Gilreath	+0.4
30	11-19	E CAR	E CAR	Attack err	Isabella Arroyave		+0.4
31	12-19	E CAR	UTSA	Kill	Isabella Arroyave	set Valeria Ortiz	+0.1
32	12-20	UTSA	E CAR×3	Serve err	UTSA		+0.2
33	12-21	E CAR	E CAR×3	Kill	Kai Bailey	set Taryn Gilreath	+0.1
34	12-22	E CAR	E CAR×3	Attack err	Ally Tribe		+0.1
35	13-22	E CAR	UTSA	Kill	Ally Tribe	set Valeria Ortiz	·
36	13-23	UTSA	E CAR×3	Kill	Aulie Huff	set Taryn Gilreath	·
37	13-24	E CAR	E CAR×3	Kill	Kai Bailey	set Taryn Gilreath	·
38	13-25	E CAR	E CAR×3	Attack err	Valeria Ortiz		·

Score shown after each rally, UTSA first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

East Carolina def. UTSA 3–0

Kai Bailey hit .588 with 10 kills as East Carolina rolled past UTSA.