Final · 5 setsSun, Oct 18, 2026Watch on ACCNX

Duke def. Notre Dame 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: Notre Dame 51.3% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 18, 11:56 AM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Duke won at Notre Dame 3-2 (19-25, 25-14, 18-25, 25-18, 15-12) on Sun, Oct 18, 2026. Duke's Nataly Moravec led with 24 kills, and Mailinh Godschall added 22 digs.

Data through · final Oct 18

Set12345Sets
DUKE19251825153
N DAME25142518122

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Taylor Williams served 4 aces, and Duke needed every one.

The match turned 3 times; each line shows Duke's RallyIQ win probability at the start and end of the stretch. RallyIQ had Notre Dame at 51% before first serve.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 5 · Duke 1–0 Notre Dame

    Down 0–1, Notre Dame scored 4 straight to lead 4–1. The match swung to Notre Dame.

    Duke 57% → 24%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 5 · Duke 4–5 Notre Dame

    Up 5–4, Notre Dame scored 3 straight to make it 8–4.

    Duke 37% → 13%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 5 · Duke 4–8 Notre Dame

    Duke's low point. Duke then won 11 of the next 15 rallies and the set 15–12, and with it the match.

    Duke 13% → >99%

Notre Dame above 50Duke belowMax swing 13.6%

DukeNotre Dame

Sideout %
Duke 59.6·Notre Dame 54.9
Break %
Duke 45.1·Notre Dame 40.4
Hitting
Duke .230·Notre Dame .187
Longest run
Duke 7·Notre Dame 6

Nataly Moravec
4 of her kills came in the stretches above. 24 K, .250, 25.5 points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Notre Dame above 50 · Duke below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 4SET 510050100+13.6% DUKErally 196 · set 5

Biggest swing: 13.6% to Duke — set 5, DUKE 9-8 N DAME. Bad set by Maya Evens. N DAME win probability 53% → 39%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

DUKE 59.5%40.5% N DAME

Duke wins

3-0
16.9%
3-1
22.7%
3-2
19.9%

Notre Dame wins

3-0
8.9%
3-1
14.8%
3-2
16.8%
DUKE break %
41.8% vs this opp
N DAME break %
40.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Maya EvensBad set+13.6%

    Bad set by Maya Evens

    Set 5 · DUKE 9-8 N DAME · DUKE 47% → 61%

  2. 02
    Nataly MoravecKill+13.3%

    Kill by Nataly Moravec (set by Nikki Quinn)

    Set 5 · DUKE 10-8 N DAME · DUKE 61% → 74%

  3. 03

    Ace by Taylor Williams on Maya Evens

    Set 5 · DUKE 8-8 N DAME · DUKE 35% → 47%

  4. 04
    Nataly MoravecKill+11.4%

    Kill by Nataly Moravec (set by Nikki Quinn)

    Set 5 · DUKE 11-8 N DAME · DUKE 74% → 86%

  5. 05
    Nataly MoravecKill+10.3%

    Kill by Nataly Moravec (set by Mailinh Godschall)

    Set 5 · DUKE 7-8 N DAME · DUKE 25% → 35%

  6. 06
    Nataly MoravecAttack error+9.5%

    Attack error by Nataly Moravec

    Set 5 · DUKE 4-7 N DAME · N DAME 70% → 79%

  7. 07
    Chichi NnajiKill+9.3%

    Kill by Chichi Nnaji (set by Sydney Helmers)

    Set 5 · DUKE 1-2 N DAME · N DAME 49% → 58%

  8. 08
    Chichi NnajiKill+9.2%

    Kill by Chichi Nnaji (set by Maya Evens)

    Set 5 · DUKE 1-3 N DAME · N DAME 58% → 68%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Dukeaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
524768.250111141010.525.5
523952.26920490010.523.5
57116.37500010031.58.5
5102.50051011200001
4004.000011300001
1012-.500000000000
57325.160140110010.511.5
53211.091002200214
5000–5322230003
5000–000000000
4003.000101000211
1000–000300000
Team totals6523183.230619127740105102
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
517549.24500010100017
514656.14310070132.516.5
512528.2500006004214
56216.25000000132.58.5
5229.0001114001058
5203.6673110600003
5000–1111020001
5000–4102640001
5000–1200800000
4129-.11100010052.53.5
4000–100400000
2001.00000000010.50.5
Team totals5422171.18751428292261594

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 7 DUKE · N DAME 6

Set 1

19-25

Longest run 3 DUKEN DAME 4

Set 2

25-14

Longest run 5 DUKEN DAME 3

Set 3

18-25

Longest run 3 DUKEN DAME 6

Set 4

25-18

Longest run 4 DUKEN DAME 2

Set 5

15-12

Longest run 7 DUKEN DAME 4

Bars above the line = Notre Dame leads, below = Duke leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Duke

SlotSideout %Break %
1
48%11/23
53%10/19
2
63%10/16
45%9/20
3
56%9/16
41%7/17
4
56%9/16
50%9/18
5
64%9/14
50%9/18
6
89%8/9
20%2/10
All
60%56/94
45%46/102

Notre Dame

SlotSideout %Break %
1
55%11/20
47%9/19
2
48%10/21
44%8/18
3
64%9/14
44%7/16
4
45%9/20
40%6/15
5
60%9/15
36%5/14
6
67%8/12
25%3/12
All
55%56/102
40%38/94

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (5 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

196 rallies

#DUKE-N DAMESrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1N DAMEN DAME×3AceMaya Bakeraced Mailinh Godschall+2.6
20-2N DAMEN DAME×3KillMae Kordasset Maya Baker+2.6
30-3N DAMEN DAME×3KillChichi Nnajiset Maya Evens+2.5
41-3N DAMEDUKEAttack errChichi Nnaji+1.6
51-4DUKEN DAMEKillGrace Langerset Maya Baker+1.7
61-5N DAMEN DAMEAttack errZoe Gillen-Malveaux+2.3
72-5N DAMEDUKEAttack errSydney Helmers+1.4
82-6DUKEN DAME×3KillSydney Helmersset Maya Baker+1.6
92-7N DAMEN DAME×3BlockedNataly Moravecblk Chichi Nnaji, Anna Bjork+2.1
102-8N DAMEN DAME×3AceMaya Evensaced Mailinh Godschall+1.8
113-8N DAMEDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+1.0
123-9DUKEN DAMEKillSydney Helmersset Maya Baker+1.2
133-10N DAMEN DAMEKillMaya Bakerset Maya Evens+1.4
144-10N DAMEDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+0.7
154-11DUKEN DAMEKillSydney Helmersset Maya Baker+1.0
165-11N DAMEDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+0.7
175-12DUKEN DAMEServe errNikki Quinn+0.9
186-12N DAMEDUKE×3KillAshby Zubchevichset Nataly Moravec+0.7
197-12DUKEDUKE×3KillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+1.4
208-12DUKEDUKE×3Attack errMae Kordas+1.8
218-13DUKEN DAMEServe errAshby Zubchevich+1.5
229-13N DAMEDUKEKillBreonna Gossset Nikki Quinn+1.2
2310-13DUKEDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+2.2
2410-14DUKEN DAME×4KillMae Kordasset Maya Baker+1.9
2510-15N DAMEN DAME×4KillChichi Nnajiset Maya Baker+2.2
2610-16N DAMEN DAME×4KillGrace Langer+1.7
2710-17N DAMEN DAME×4Bad setNikki Quinn+1.2
2811-17N DAMEDUKEAttack errSydney Helmers+0.5
2911-18DUKEN DAMEServe errAvery Hamlin+0.7
3012-18N DAMEDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+0.4
3113-18DUKEDUKEAceNataly Moravecaced Chloe Hooker+1.0
3213-19DUKEN DAME×3KillSydney Helmersset Maya Baker+1.0
3313-20N DAMEN DAME×3KillAnna Bjorkset Lily Fenton+0.9
3413-21N DAMEN DAME×3BlockedAshby Zubchevichblk Kailyn Greene- Gordon, Anna Bjork+0.4
3514-21N DAMEDUKE×3KillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+0.1
3615-21DUKEDUKE×3AceMailinh Godschall+0.3
3716-21DUKEDUKE×3KillAshby Zubchevichset Charlotte Glass+0.6
3816-22DUKEN DAMEServe errMailinh Godschall+0.7
3917-22N DAMEDUKEKillNikki Quinnset Nikki Quinn+0.3
4017-23DUKEN DAMEKillSydney Helmersset Lily Fenton+0.6
4118-23N DAMEDUKEKillBreonna Gossset Anna Bjork+0.2
4218-24DUKEN DAMEKillMae Kordasset Lily Fenton+0.4
4319-24N DAMEDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Maya Baker+0.1
4419-25DUKEN DAMEKillMae Kordasset Maya Baker+0.2
Set 2
10-1DUKEN DAMEKillGrace Langerset Maya Baker+1.7
21-1N DAMEDUKE×3KillBreonna Gossset Nikki Quinn+1.7
32-1DUKEDUKE×3KillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+2.6
43-1DUKEDUKE×3KillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+2.6
53-2DUKEN DAMEKillSydney Helmersset Maya Baker+1.7
64-2N DAMEDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+1.8
74-3DUKEN DAMEKillSydney Helmersset Maya Baker+1.7
85-3N DAMEDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+1.9
95-4DUKEN DAMEKillMaya Bakerset Carla Mercado+1.8
106-4N DAMEDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+1.9
117-4DUKEDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+2.7
127-5DUKEN DAMEKillMae Kordasset Maya Baker+1.7
138-5N DAMEDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+1.9
148-6DUKEN DAMEKillGrace Langerset Maya Baker+1.7
159-6N DAMEDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+1.9
169-7DUKEN DAMEKillChichi Nnajiset Maya Baker+1.7
1710-7N DAMEDUKE×4Serve errChloe Hooker+2.0
1811-7DUKEDUKE×4AceMailinh Godschallaced Maya Evens+2.6
1912-7DUKEDUKE×4Attack errChichi Nnaji+2.2
2013-7DUKEDUKE×4Attack errSydney Helmers+1.8
2113-8DUKEN DAMEKillSydney Helmersset Maya Baker+0.9
2214-8N DAMEDUKEKillTaylor Williamsset Mailinh Godschall+1.2
2314-9DUKEN DAMEKillSydney Helmersset Maya Baker+0.9
2415-9N DAMEDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Ashby Zubchevich+1.2
2516-9DUKEDUKEBlockedSydney Helmersblk Charlotte Glass, Olivia Wayne+1.3
2616-10DUKEN DAME×3BlockedOlivia Wayneblk Sydney Helmers, Anna Bjork+0.6
2716-11N DAMEN DAME×3Attack errAshby Zubchevich+1.2
2816-12N DAMEN DAME×3BlockedAshby Zubchevichblk Anna Bjork, Isabella Sangha+1.7
2917-12N DAMEDUKE×3KillOlivia Wayneset Nikki Quinn+1.5
3018-12DUKEDUKE×3Bad setLily Fenton+1.6
3119-12DUKEDUKE×3Bad setLily Fenton+1.0
3219-13DUKEN DAMEServe errOlivia Wayne+0.4
3320-13N DAMEDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+0.6
3420-14DUKEN DAMEKillMae Kordasset Lily Fenton+0.3
3521-14N DAMEDUKE×5Attack errChichi Nnaji+0.5
3622-14DUKEDUKE×5KillNataly Moravecset Mailinh Godschall+0.4
3723-14DUKEDUKE×5KillBreonna Goss+0.1
3824-14DUKEDUKE×5BlockedSydney Helmersblk Breonna Goss, Taylor Williams·
3925-14DUKEDUKE×5KillTaylor Williamsset Nikki Quinn·
Set 3
11-0N DAMEDUKEAttack errNataly Moravec+2.4
21-1DUKEN DAMEBlockedTaylor Williamsblk Sydney Helmers+2.3
32-1N DAMEDUKE×3KillTaylor Williamsset Nikki Quinn+2.4
43-1DUKEDUKE×3AceTaylor Williamsaced Maya Evens+3.5
54-1DUKEDUKE×3BlockedAnna Bjorkblk Olivia Wayne, Charlotte Glass+3.4
64-2DUKEN DAMEBlockedNataly Moravecblk Chichi Nnaji, Anna Bjork+2.2
75-2N DAMEDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+2.4
85-3DUKEN DAMEBlockedAshby Zubchevichblk Isabella Sangha, Anna Bjork+2.2
96-3N DAMEDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+2.4
106-4DUKEN DAME×3KillMae Kordasset Lily Fenton+2.2
116-5N DAMEN DAME×3KillMae Kordasset Anna Bjork+3.6
126-6N DAMEN DAME×3KillMae Kordasset Lily Fenton+3.9
137-6N DAMEDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+2.7
147-7DUKEN DAMEServe errCharlotte Glass+2.7
158-7N DAMEDUKEKillTaylor Williamsset Mailinh Godschall+2.8
168-8DUKEN DAME×6Serve errAshby Zubchevich+2.8
178-9N DAMEN DAME×6KillGrace Langerset Maya Baker+4.2
188-10N DAMEN DAME×6KillSydney Helmersset Maya Baker+4.2
198-11N DAMEN DAME×6KillChichi Nnajiset Maya Baker+3.9
208-12N DAMEN DAME×6BlockedTaylor Williamsblk Sydney Helmers, Grace Langer+3.5
218-13N DAMEN DAME×6Attack errNataly Moravec+3.0
229-13N DAMEDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+1.6
239-14DUKEN DAMEServe errMailinh Godschall+2.0
2410-14N DAMEDUKEKillOlivia Wayneset Nikki Quinn+1.6
2511-14DUKEDUKEAttack errAnna Bjork+3.0
2611-15DUKEN DAMEKillChichi Nnajiset Maya Baker+2.5
2711-16N DAMEN DAMEAttack errAshby Zubchevich+3.0
2812-16N DAMEDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+1.5
2912-17DUKEN DAMEBlockedAshby Zubchevichblk Anna Bjork, Isabella Sangha+2.0
3012-18N DAMEN DAMEAceChloe Hookeraced Mailinh Godschall+2.1
3113-18N DAMEDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+0.9
3214-18DUKEDUKEKillBreonna Gossset Nikki Quinn+2.0
3314-19DUKEN DAMEKillMae Kordasset Lily Fenton+2.0
3415-19N DAMEDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+1.3
3515-20DUKEN DAMEBlockedAshby Zubchevichblk Isabella Sangha, Grace Langer+1.9
3616-20N DAMEDUKEKillBreonna Gossset Nikki Quinn+1.2
3716-21DUKEN DAMEServe errAshby Zubchevich+1.8
3817-21N DAMEDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+1.0
3917-22DUKEN DAMEKillSydney Helmersset Maya Baker+1.7
4018-22N DAMEDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+0.8
4118-23DUKEN DAME×3KillSydney Helmersset Maya Baker+1.4
4218-24N DAMEN DAME×3KillIsabella Sanghaset Lily Fenton+0.8
4318-25N DAMEN DAME×3KillSydney Helmersset Lily Fenton+0.1
Set 4
11-0DUKEDUKE×3KillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+3.4
22-0DUKEDUKE×3Attack errMae Kordas+3.4
33-0DUKEDUKE×3Attack errMae Kordas+3.3
43-1DUKEN DAMEAttack errNataly Moravec+2.1
53-2N DAMEN DAMEAttack errBreonna Goss+3.4
64-2N DAMEDUKE×4BlockedChichi Nnajiblk Breonna Goss, Nataly Moravec+2.4
75-2DUKEDUKE×4AceMailinh Godschall+3.4
86-2DUKEDUKE×4KillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+3.2
97-2DUKEDUKE×4KillTaylor Williamsset Mailinh Godschall+2.8
107-3DUKEN DAMEKillChichi Nnajiset Maya Baker+1.6
117-4N DAMEN DAMEKillSydney Helmersset Maya Baker+2.9
128-4N DAMEDUKE×3KillNataly Moravecset Ashby Zubchevich+2.3
139-4DUKEDUKE×3AceTaylor Williamsaced Mae Kordas+2.9
1410-4DUKEDUKE×3Attack errSydney Helmers+2.4
1510-5DUKEN DAMEKillChichi Nnajiset Maya Baker+1.3
1611-5N DAMEDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+1.7
1711-6DUKEN DAMEServe errNataly Moravec+1.3
1812-6N DAMEDUKEKillOlivia Wayneset Nikki Quinn+1.7
1913-6DUKEDUKEBlockedIsabella Sanghablk Ashby Zubchevich, Breonna Goss+1.9
2013-7DUKEN DAMEServe errOlivia Wayne+0.9
2113-8N DAMEN DAMEAceAnna Bjorkaced Nataly Moravec+1.8
2214-8N DAMEDUKE×3KillAshby Zubchevichset Taylor Williams+1.6
2315-8DUKEDUKE×3AceAvery Hamlinaced Chloe Hooker+1.8
2416-8DUKEDUKE×3Attack errIsabella Sangha+1.2
2516-9DUKEN DAMEKillMae Kordasset Lily Fenton+0.5
2616-10N DAMEN DAMEKillMae Kordasset Maya Baker+1.1
2717-10N DAMEDUKEKillTaylor Williamsset Nikki Quinn+1.1
2817-11DUKEN DAMEServe errAshby Zubchevich+0.7
2918-11N DAMEDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+1.0
3018-12DUKEN DAMEKillChichi Nnajiset Maya Baker+0.6
3118-13N DAMEN DAMEBlockedOlivia Wayneblk Sydney Helmers, Anna Bjork+1.4
3219-13N DAMEDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+1.4
3320-13DUKEDUKEAttack errChichi Nnaji+1.2
3420-14DUKEN DAMEBlockedNataly Moravecblk Anna Bjork, Chichi Nnaji+0.4
3521-14N DAMEDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+0.7
3622-14DUKEDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+0.5
3722-15DUKEN DAMEKillAnna Bjorkset Lily Fenton+0.1
3822-16N DAMEN DAMEBlockedAshby Zubchevichblk Anna Bjork, Isabella Sangha+0.3
3923-16N DAMEDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+0.4
4023-17DUKEN DAMEKillMae Kordasset Lily Fenton+0.1
4124-17N DAMEDUKEServe errAnna Bjork+0.3
4224-18DUKEN DAMEKillGrace Langerset Lily Fenton·
4325-18N DAMEDUKEAttack errMae Kordas+1.3
Set 5
11-0DUKEDUKEAttack errGrace Langer+9.0
21-1DUKEN DAME×4BlockedTaylor Williamsblk Grace Langer+6.1
31-2N DAMEN DAME×4KillChichi Nnajiset Sydney Helmers+9.3
41-3N DAMEN DAME×4KillChichi Nnajiset Maya Evens+9.2
51-4N DAMEN DAME×4Attack errAshby Zubchevich+8.6
62-4N DAMEDUKEKillBreonna Gossset Nikki Quinn+5.1
72-5DUKEN DAMEKillChichi Nnajiset Maya Baker+6.0
83-5N DAMEDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+5.2
94-5DUKEDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+9.2
104-6DUKEN DAME×3Attack errNataly Moravec+7.1
114-7N DAMEN DAME×3Attack errNataly Moravec+9.5
124-8N DAMEN DAME×3KillMae Kordas+7.8
135-8N DAMEDUKE×7KillTaylor Williamsset Nikki Quinn+4.0
146-8DUKEDUKE×7AceTaylor Williamsaced Maya Evens+8.0
157-8DUKEDUKE×7KillNataly Moravecset Mailinh Godschall+10.3
168-8DUKEDUKE×7AceTaylor Williamsaced Maya Evens+12.3
179-8DUKEDUKE×7Bad setMaya Evens+13.6
1810-8DUKEDUKE×7KillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+13.3
1911-8DUKEDUKE×7KillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+11.4
2011-9DUKEN DAMEKillMae Kordasset Maya Baker+5.4
2112-9N DAMEDUKE×3Attack errMae Kordas+8.1
2213-9DUKEDUKE×3KillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+7.6
2314-9DUKEDUKE×3Attack errGrace Langer+3.3
2414-10DUKEN DAME×3KillMae Kordasset Chloe Hooker+0.5
2514-11N DAMEN DAME×3KillChichi Nnajiset Maya Baker+1.8
2614-12N DAMEN DAME×3KillMae Kordasset Maya Evens+4.5
2715-12N DAMEDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+7.6

Score shown after each rally, Duke first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).