California vs Duke Volleyball: Duke Wins 3-0 (Oct 25, 2026)

FinalSun, Oct 25, 2026ACCNX

0:3

RallyIQ pre-match: California 67.2% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 25, 11:55 AM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Duke beat visiting California 3-0 (25-19, 25-22, 25-15) on Sun, Oct 25, 2026. Duke's Nataly Moravec led with 16 kills.

Data through Nov 3, 9:20 PM CT · final Oct 25

Set	1	2	3	Sets
CAL	19	22	15	0
DUKE	25	25	25	3

Match story · written from the play-by-play

16 kills in 3 sets for Nataly Moravec. Duke swept California.

The match turned twice. Numbers are Duke's win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. RallyIQ had California at 67% before first serve.

Turning point 1: Set 2 · California 6–1 Duke
Down 1–6, Duke scored 7 straight to lead 8–6. The match swung to Duke.
Duke 42% → 61%
Turning point 2: Set 3 · California 10–8 Duke
Duke scored 5 straight to turn an 8–10 deficit into a 13–10 lead.
Duke 74% → 89%

Duke above 50California belowMax swing 4.9%

CaliforniaDuke

Sideout %: California 46.6·Duke 62.1
Break %: California 37.9·Duke 53.4
Hitting: California .124·Duke .290
Longest run: California 5·Duke 7

Nataly Moravec
5 of her kills came in the stretches above. 16 K, .417, 17 points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Duke above 50 · California below

Biggest swing: 4.9% to Duke — set 2, CAL 15-18 DUKE. Ace by Taylor Williams on Abby Zimmerman. DUKE win probability 65% → 69%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

CAL 62.1%37.9% DUKE

California wins

3-0

18.4%

3-1

23.8%

3-2

20.0%

Duke wins

3-0

8.0%

3-1

13.7%

3-2

16.1%

CAL break %: 39.6% vs this opp
DUKE break %: 37.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Taylor WilliamsAce+4.9%
Ace by Taylor Williams on Abby Zimmerman
Set 2 · CAL 15-18 DUKE · DUKE 65% → 69%
02
Nataly MoravecAttack error+4.5%
Attack error by Nataly Moravec
Set 2 · CAL 15-16 DUKE · CAL 34% → 39%
03
Avery HamlinAce+4.1%
Ace by Avery Hamlin on Sophia Johnson
Set 2 · CAL 10-13 DUKE · DUKE 62% → 66%
04
Ashby ZubchevichKill+4.1%
Kill by Ashby Zubchevich (set by Nikki Quinn)
Set 2 · CAL 16-20 DUKE · DUKE 70% → 74%
05
Sawyer Thomsen&Anna FloresBlock+3.8%
Ashby Zubchevich stuffed by Sawyer Thomsen & Anna Flores
Set 2 · CAL 10-11 DUKE · CAL 37% → 41%
06
Dominique PhillsAttack error+3.8%
Attack error by Dominique Phills
Set 2 · CAL 7-10 DUKE · DUKE 61% → 65%
07
Ashby ZubchevichKill+3.8%
Kill by Ashby Zubchevich (set by Avery Hamlin)
Set 2 · CAL 10-14 DUKE · DUKE 66% → 70%
08
Anna FloresBad set+3.8%
Bad set by Anna Flores
Set 2 · CAL 6-8 DUKE · DUKE 57% → 61%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Californiaaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
15Sawyer ThomsenMB	3	12	0	15	.800	0	0	1	0	0	2	2	3	15
13Abby ZimmermanOH	3	9	5	28	.143	0	2	2	5	1	1	0	1	12
18Ashley LiOH	3	6	6	19	.000	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	6
24Anna FloresS	3	2	0	6	.333	28	0	2	6	0	0	3	1.5	3.5
4Francesca PopescuDS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	0
5Cari BohmMB	2	3	4	15	-.067	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	4
14Elise LauL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
7Siena MacCuddenL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	0	0
2Sophia JohnsonL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	5	0	0	10	1	0	0	0	0
11Grace AgolliOPP	2	2	3	17	-.059	0	0	0	3	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
3Ashleigh WoodruffMB	2	2	1	9	.111	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
10Dominique PhillsOH	2	2	4	9	-.222	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
9Annemarie O'GaraOPP	1	0	0	3	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
22Maria StirbuS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		38	23	121	.124	34	2	6	39	3	3	8	7	56

Dukehome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
8Nataly MoravecOH	3	16	1	36	.417	0	0	1	14	1	0	2	1	17
11Ashby ZubchevichOH	3	14	7	36	.194	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	14
5Breonna GossMB	3	6	4	13	.154	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	7
15Olivia WayneMB	3	4	0	8	.500	0	0	0	1	0	1	4	3	7
9Taylor WilliamsOH	3	2	1	7	.143	0	1	0	10	0	0	0	0	3
23Nikki QuinnS	3	0	0	0	–	34	0	0	4	0	0	2	1	1
12Avery HamlinOH	3	0	0	0	–	3	2	0	2	0	0	0	0	2
2Grace ThrowerOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
10Mailinh GodschallL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	0	2	14	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		42	13	100	.290	41	3	3	51	2	2	8	6	75

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 CAL · DUKE 7

Set 1

19-25

Longest run 4 CALDUKE 5

Set 2

22-25

Longest run 5 CALDUKE 7

Set 3

15-25

Longest run 4 CALDUKE 6

Bars above the line = Duke leads, below = California leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

California

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	64%7/11	40%4/10
2	67%6/9	46%6/13
3	33%6/18	14%1/7
4	35%6/17	50%6/12
5	42%5/12	40%4/10
6	67%4/6	17%1/6
All	47%34/73	38%22/58

Duke

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	44%7/16	0%0/5
2	86%6/7	40%4/10
3	100%6/6	63%10/16
4	50%6/12	54%7/13
5	55%6/11	63%10/16
6	83%5/6	62%8/13
All	62%36/58	53%39/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

131 rallies

#	CAL-DUKE	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	CAL	CAL	Kill	Ashley Li	set Sophia Johnson	+2.4
2	2-0	CAL	CAL	Attack err	Breonna Goss		+2.3
3	2-1	CAL	DUKE	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Mailinh Godschall	+1.4
4	3-1	DUKE	CAL	Kill	Ashley Li	set Nikki Quinn	+1.4
5	3-2	CAL	DUKE	Kill	Olivia Wayne	set Nikki Quinn	+1.4
6	4-2	DUKE	CAL	Kill	Sawyer Thomsen	set Anna Flores	+1.4
7	4-3	CAL	DUKE×5	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+1.4
8	4-4	DUKE	DUKE×5	Attack err	Grace Agolli		+2.6
9	4-5	DUKE	DUKE×5	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Nikki Quinn	+2.8
10	4-6	DUKE	DUKE×5	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Nikki Quinn	+2.9
11	4-7	DUKE	DUKE×5	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+2.9
12	5-7	DUKE	CAL	Kill	Abby Zimmerman	set Anna Flores	+1.6
13	5-8	CAL	DUKE	Serve err	Abby Zimmerman		+1.8
14	5-9	DUKE	DUKE	Serve err	Duke		+2.8
15	6-9	DUKE	CAL×4	Kill	Grace Agolli	set Anna Flores	+1.4
16	7-9	CAL	CAL×4	Attack err	Breonna Goss		+2.7
17	8-9	CAL	CAL×4	Kill	Ashley Li	set Anna Flores	+2.9
18	9-9	CAL	CAL×4	Attack err	Ashby Zubchevich		+3.1
19	9-10	CAL	DUKE×4	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Nikki Quinn	+2.0
20	9-11	DUKE	DUKE×4	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Avery Hamlin	+3.3
21	9-12	DUKE	DUKE×4	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Avery Hamlin	+3.3
22	9-13	DUKE	DUKE×4	Blocked	Cari Bohm	blk Breonna Goss	+3.0
23	10-13	DUKE	CAL	Kill	Cari Bohm	set Anna Flores	+1.5
24	10-14	CAL	DUKE	Kill	Taylor Williams	set Nikki Quinn	+1.9
25	11-14	DUKE	CAL	Kill	Ashley Li	set Anna Flores	+1.5
26	11-15	CAL	DUKE	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Nikki Quinn	+1.9
27	12-15	DUKE	CAL	Kill	Sawyer Thomsen	set Anna Flores	+1.5
28	12-16	CAL	DUKE×3	Blocked	Ashley Li	blk Olivia Wayne, Nataly Moravec	+2.0
29	12-17	DUKE	DUKE×3	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+2.5
30	12-18	DUKE	DUKE×3	Blocked	Grace Agolli	blk Nikki Quinn, Olivia Wayne	+1.8
31	13-18	DUKE	CAL	Blocked	Ashby Zubchevich	blk Sawyer Thomsen	+0.7
32	13-19	CAL	DUKE	Kill	Olivia Wayne	set Nikki Quinn	+1.1
33	14-19	DUKE	CAL×4	Kill	Cari Bohm	set Anna Flores	+0.6
34	15-19	CAL	CAL×4	Kill	Grace Agolli	set Anna Flores	+1.5
35	16-19	CAL	CAL×4	Attack err	Ashby Zubchevich		+2.2
36	17-19	CAL	CAL×4	Blocked	Ashby Zubchevich	blk Cari Bohm, Anna Flores	+3.1
37	17-20	CAL	DUKE×4	Attack err	Grace Agolli		+2.7
38	17-21	DUKE	DUKE×4	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+3.3
39	17-22	DUKE	DUKE×4	Attack err	Cari Bohm		+2.0
40	17-23	DUKE	DUKE×4	Attack err	Cari Bohm		+0.9
41	18-23	DUKE	CAL	Kill	Abby Zimmerman	set Anna Flores	+0.2
42	19-23	CAL	CAL	Blocked	Ashby Zubchevich	blk Cari Bohm, Anna Flores	+0.6
43	19-24	CAL	DUKE	Kill	Breonna Goss	set Nikki Quinn	+0.8
44	19-25	DUKE	DUKE	Ace	Avery Hamlin	aced Francesca Popescu	+0.3
Set 2
1	1-0	DUKE	CAL×5	Kill	Abby Zimmerman	set Anna Flores	+1.8
2	2-0	CAL	CAL×5	Blocked	Taylor Williams	blk Grace Agolli, Sawyer Thomsen	+2.8
3	3-0	CAL	CAL×5	Attack err	Breonna Goss		+2.6
4	4-0	CAL	CAL×5	Kill	Sawyer Thomsen		+2.3
5	5-0	CAL	CAL×5	Kill	Abby Zimmerman	set Sophia Johnson	+1.9
6	5-1	CAL	DUKE	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+1.0
7	6-1	DUKE	CAL	Kill	Sawyer Thomsen	set Anna Flores	+1.2
8	6-2	CAL	DUKE×7	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+1.0
9	6-3	DUKE	DUKE×7	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Nikki Quinn	+2.1
10	6-4	DUKE	DUKE×7	Blocked	Cari Bohm	blk Olivia Wayne	+2.5
11	6-5	DUKE	DUKE×7	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+3.0
12	6-6	DUKE	DUKE×7	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+3.3
13	6-7	DUKE	DUKE×7	Attack err	Dominique Phills		+3.6
14	6-8	DUKE	DUKE×7	Bad set	Anna Flores		+3.8
15	7-8	DUKE	CAL	Kill	Cari Bohm	set Anna Flores	+2.1
16	7-9	CAL	DUKE	Serve err	Abby Zimmerman		+2.4
17	7-10	DUKE	DUKE	Attack err	Dominique Phills		+3.8
18	8-10	DUKE	CAL	Kill	Abby Zimmerman	set Anna Flores	+2.0
19	8-11	CAL	DUKE	Kill	Olivia Wayne	set Nikki Quinn	+2.4
20	9-11	DUKE	CAL	Kill	Anna Flores	set Francesca Popescu	+2.1
21	10-11	CAL	CAL	Blocked	Ashby Zubchevich	blk Sawyer Thomsen, Anna Flores	+3.8
22	10-12	CAL	DUKE×3	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Nikki Quinn	+2.6
23	10-13	DUKE	DUKE×3	Ace	Avery Hamlin	aced Sophia Johnson	+4.1
24	10-14	DUKE	DUKE×3	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Avery Hamlin	+3.8
25	11-14	DUKE	CAL	Kill	Sawyer Thomsen	set Anna Flores	+1.8
26	12-14	CAL	CAL	Kill	Sawyer Thomsen	set Anna Flores	+3.6
27	12-15	CAL	DUKE	Serve err	Anna Flores		+2.7
28	13-15	DUKE	CAL	Kill	Abby Zimmerman	set Anna Flores	+2.2
29	13-16	CAL	DUKE	Kill	Breonna Goss	set Nikki Quinn	+2.8
30	14-16	DUKE	CAL	Serve err	Duke		+2.3
31	15-16	CAL	CAL	Attack err	Nataly Moravec		+4.5
32	15-17	CAL	DUKE	Serve err	Sawyer Thomsen		+3.3
33	15-18	DUKE	DUKE	Ace	Taylor Williams	aced Abby Zimmerman	+4.9
34	16-18	DUKE	CAL	Kill	Dominique Phills	set Sophia Johnson	+2.3
35	16-19	CAL	DUKE	Attack err	Abby Zimmerman		+3.2
36	16-20	DUKE	DUKE	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Nikki Quinn	+4.1
37	17-20	DUKE	CAL	Attack err	Ashby Zubchevich		+1.6
38	17-21	CAL	DUKE	Attack err	Ashleigh Woodruff		+2.5
39	17-22	DUKE	DUKE	Attack err	Ashley Li		+2.5
40	18-22	DUKE	CAL	Kill	Ashley Li	set Anna Flores	+0.6
41	18-23	CAL	DUKE	Kill	Breonna Goss	set Nikki Quinn	+1.3
42	19-23	DUKE	CAL	Kill	Anna Flores	set Sophia Johnson	+0.4
43	19-24	CAL	DUKE	Kill	Breonna Goss	set Nikki Quinn	+1.0
44	20-24	DUKE	CAL×3	Kill	Sawyer Thomsen	set Anna Flores	+0.2
45	21-24	CAL	CAL×3	Kill	Sawyer Thomsen		+0.8
46	22-24	CAL	CAL×3	Kill	Abby Zimmerman	set Anna Flores	+2.0
47	22-25	CAL	DUKE	Kill	Breonna Goss	set Nikki Quinn	+3.3
Set 3
1	1-0	CAL	CAL	Blocked	Breonna Goss	blk Sawyer Thomsen	+2.4
2	1-1	CAL	DUKE	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+1.5
3	2-1	DUKE	CAL	Serve err	Duke		+1.5
4	2-2	CAL	DUKE	Serve err	Ashley Li		+1.6
5	3-2	DUKE	CAL	Kill	Sawyer Thomsen	set Anna Flores	+1.5
6	3-3	CAL	DUKE	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Mailinh Godschall	+1.6
7	4-3	DUKE	CAL×4	Kill	Abby Zimmerman	set Anna Flores	+1.6
8	5-3	CAL	CAL×4	Ace	Abby Zimmerman	aced Nataly Moravec	+2.5
9	6-3	CAL	CAL×4	Ace	Abby Zimmerman	aced Mailinh Godschall	+2.3
10	7-3	CAL	CAL×4	Kill	Ashleigh Woodruff	set Anna Flores	+2.0
11	7-4	CAL	DUKE	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Mailinh Godschall	+1.1
12	8-4	DUKE	CAL	Kill	Dominique Phills	set Sophia Johnson	+1.2
13	8-5	CAL	DUKE×3	Attack err	Ashley Li		+1.1
14	8-6	DUKE	DUKE×3	Attack err	Abby Zimmerman		+2.2
15	8-7	DUKE	DUKE×3	Attack err	Ashley Li		+2.6
16	9-7	DUKE	CAL	Kill	Ashleigh Woodruff	set Anna Flores	+1.7
17	9-8	CAL	DUKE	Kill	Taylor Williams	set Nikki Quinn	+1.6
18	10-8	DUKE	CAL	Kill	Sawyer Thomsen	set Anna Flores	+1.7
19	10-9	CAL	DUKE×5	Serve err	Anna Flores		+1.7
20	10-10	DUKE	DUKE×5	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+3.1
21	10-11	DUKE	DUKE×5	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+3.4
22	10-12	DUKE	DUKE×5	Attack err	Ashley Li		+3.5
23	10-13	DUKE	DUKE×5	Attack err	Ashley Li		+3.4
24	11-13	DUKE	CAL	Kill	Sawyer Thomsen	set Anna Flores	+1.8
25	11-14	CAL	DUKE	Kill	Olivia Wayne	set Nikki Quinn	+2.2
26	11-15	DUKE	DUKE	Blocked	Abby Zimmerman	blk Nataly Moravec, Olivia Wayne	+3.2
27	12-15	DUKE	CAL	Kill	Sawyer Thomsen	set Anna Flores	+1.5
28	12-16	CAL	DUKE	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+2.0
29	12-17	DUKE	DUKE	Blocked	Dominique Phills	blk Olivia Wayne, Nikki Quinn	+2.6
30	13-17	DUKE	CAL	Serve err	Duke		+1.1
31	13-18	CAL	DUKE×6	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Mailinh Godschall	+1.6
32	13-19	DUKE	DUKE×6	Attack err	Dominique Phills		+1.7
33	13-20	DUKE	DUKE×6	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+1.0
34	13-21	DUKE	DUKE×6	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+0.5
35	13-22	DUKE	DUKE×6	Kill	Breonna Goss	set Nikki Quinn	+0.2
36	13-23	DUKE	DUKE×6	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Nikki Quinn	+0.1
37	14-23	DUKE	CAL	Kill	Abby Zimmerman	set Anna Flores	·
38	14-24	CAL	DUKE	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Nikki Quinn	·
39	15-24	DUKE	CAL	Kill	Ashley Li	set Anna Flores	·
40	15-25	CAL	DUKE	Attack err	Abby Zimmerman		·

Score shown after each rally, California first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

Duke def. California 3–0

16 kills in 3 sets for Nataly Moravec. Duke swept California.