Final · 4 setsFri, Oct 30, 2026Watch on ACCNX

Duke def. Boston College 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Duke 71.9% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 30, 5:25 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Duke beat visiting Boston College 3-1 (18-25, 25-21, 25-18, 25-20) on Fri, Oct 30, 2026. Duke's Ashby Zubchevich led with 21 kills, and Mailinh Godschall added 13 digs.

Data through · final Oct 30

Set1234Sets
BC252118201
DUKE182525253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Duke needed all of Nataly Moravec's 22.5 points to get by Boston College.

The match turned twice; each line shows Duke's RallyIQ win probability at the start and end of the stretch. Duke went in as RallyIQ's 72% pick.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 2 · Boston College 11–16 Duke

    8 straight Boston College points turned an 11–16 deficit into a 19–16 lead. The match swung to Boston College.

    Duke 64% → 34%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 2 · Boston College 19–16 Duke

    Down 16–19, Duke scored 6 straight to lead 22–19. The match swung to Duke.

    Duke 34% → 63%

Duke above 50Boston College belowMax swing 6.1%

Boston CollegeDuke

Sideout %
Boston College 55.4·Duke 61.2
Break %
Boston College 38.8·Duke 44.6
Hitting
Boston College .233·Duke .274
Longest run
Boston College 8·Duke 8

Nataly Moravec
4 kills inside the turning points, 19 K and .224 for the match (22.5 points).

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Duke above 50 · Boston College below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+6.1% DUKErally 177 · set 4

Biggest swing: 6.1% to Duke — set 2, BC 19-20 DUKE. Attack error by Sam Hoppes. DUKE win probability 48% → 54%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

BC 25.8%74.2% DUKE

Boston College wins

3-0
4.6%
3-1
8.9%
3-2
12.3%

Duke wins

3-0
26.4%
3-1
28.4%
3-2
19.4%
BC break %
38.9% vs this opp
DUKE break %
43.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Sam HoppesAttack error+6.1%

    Attack error by Sam Hoppes

    Set 2 · BC 19-20 DUKE · DUKE 48% → 54%

  2. 02

    Kill by Nataly Moravec (set by Nikki Quinn)

    Set 2 · BC 19-19 DUKE · DUKE 42% → 48%

  3. 03

    Kill by Nataly Moravec (set by Nikki Quinn)

    Set 2 · BC 19-21 DUKE · DUKE 54% → 59%

  4. 04
    Chloe AllcroftBlock+5.5%

    Breonna Goss stuffed by Chloe Allcroft

    Set 2 · BC 18-16 DUKE · BC 55% → 61%

  5. 05

    Ashby Zubchevich stuffed by Chloe Allcroft & Sam Hoppes

    Set 2 · BC 17-16 DUKE · BC 50% → 55%

  6. 06
    Sam HoppesKill+5.2%

    Kill by Sam Hoppes (set by Brooklyn Yelland)

    Set 2 · BC 19-16 DUKE · BC 61% → 66%

  7. 07

    Kill by Nataly Moravec (set by Nikki Quinn)

    Set 2 · BC 19-18 DUKE · DUKE 37% → 42%

  8. 08
    Sam HoppesKill+4.6%

    Kill by Sam Hoppes (set by Brooklyn Yelland)

    Set 2 · BC 16-16 DUKE · BC 46% → 50%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
416436.33301081010.517.5
45117.23510061010.55.5
4407.57100000031.55.5
43416-.06300000031.54.5
4000–1711500001
1000–000000000
412131.35500030073.515.5
4359-.22200110195.58.5
4000–7021500000
4000–1401600000
3000–001000000
1113.000000300001
1001.000000000000
1000–000200000
1000–400000000
1000–000000000
Team totals4416120.23343264941241384
Dukehome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
419849.224433101010.522.5
4211145.2222039000021
411118.55610220111.512.5
49218.38900010111.510.5
41212-.08301061010.52.5
42021.00044001000002
4000–302100000
4000–001000000
4000–3021300000
1102.500000000001
1000–000000000
Team totals6424146.2745741352224493

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 8 BC · DUKE 8

Set 1

25-18

Longest run 5 BCDUKE 3

Set 2

21-25

Longest run 8 BCDUKE 6

Set 3

18-25

Longest run 5 BCDUKE 8

Set 4

20-25

Longest run 3 BCDUKE 4

Bars above the line = Duke leads, below = Boston College leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Boston College

SlotSideout %Break %
1
59%10/17
40%6/15
2
53%10/19
41%7/17
3
57%8/14
31%4/13
4
33%8/24
60%12/20
5
100%8/8
27%3/11
6
70%7/10
11%1/9
All
55%51/92
39%33/85

Duke

SlotSideout %Break %
1
58%11/19
44%7/16
2
56%10/18
17%2/12
3
47%8/17
59%13/22
4
53%8/15
47%7/15
5
100%8/8
53%9/17
6
88%7/8
30%3/10
All
61%52/85
45%41/92

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

177 rallies

#BC-DUKESrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1BCDUKEKillBreonna Gossset Nikki Quinn+1.4
21-1DUKEBC×4KillAudrey Rossset Lucy Mott+1.5
32-1BCBC×4KillAudrey Rossset Sofija Marjanovic+2.3
43-1BCBC×4Attack errNataly Moravec+2.4
54-1BCBC×4Attack errNataly Moravec+2.5
64-2BCDUKE×3KillOlivia Wayneset Nikki Quinn+1.6
74-3DUKEDUKE×3Bad setLucy Mott+2.4
84-4DUKEDUKE×3KillOlivia Wayneset Nikki Quinn+2.4
95-4DUKEBCKillChloe Allcroftset Lucy Mott+1.8
105-5BCDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+1.7
116-5DUKEBCKillChloe Allcroftset Lucie Vesela+1.8
126-6BCDUKEKillNikki Quinnset Nataly Moravec+1.7
137-6DUKEBCKillChloe Allcroftset Lucie Vesela+1.9
147-7BCDUKEServe errBoston College+1.8
158-7DUKEBCKillSam Hoppesset Lucie Vesela+1.9
168-8BCDUKEAttack errIsabelle Poehlein+1.8
179-8DUKEBC×5KillNaomi Watsonset Lucy Mott+2.0
1810-8BCBC×5KillAudrey Rossset Lucy Mott+2.9
1911-8BCBC×5Attack errNataly Moravec+3.0
2012-8BCBC×5KillIsabelle Poehleinset Lucy Mott+2.8
2113-8BCBC×5KillNaomi Watsonset Lucy Mott+2.5
2213-9BCDUKEKillBreonna Gossset Nikki Quinn+1.3
2314-9DUKEBC×3Serve errDuke+1.8
2415-9BCBC×3KillAudrey Rossset Lucy Mott+2.1
2516-9BCBC×3Attack errNataly Moravec+1.6
2616-10BCDUKEKillOlivia Wayneset Nikki Quinn+0.7
2716-11DUKEDUKEAttack errChloe Allcroft+1.4
2817-11DUKEBCBlockedNataly Moravecblk Chloe Allcroft, Isabelle Poehlein+1.4
2917-12BCDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+0.9
3018-12DUKEBCKillSam Hoppesset Lucie Vesela+1.4
3118-13BCDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+0.8
3219-13DUKEBCKillSofija Marjanovicset Lucie Vesela+1.3
3319-14BCDUKEKillBreonna Gossset Nikki Quinn+0.8
3420-14DUKEBCKillSam Hoppesset Lucie Vesela+1.2
3521-14BCBCAceLucy Mottaced Nataly Moravec+1.0
3621-15BCDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Ashby Zubchevich+0.3
3722-15DUKEBCServe errDuke+0.6
3823-15BCBCAttack errBreonna Goss+0.3
3923-16BCDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+0.1
4024-16DUKEBCKillAudrey Rossset Lucy Mott+0.1
4124-17BCDUKEServe errBoston College·
4224-18DUKEDUKEBlockedChloe Allcroftblk Olivia Wayne+0.1
4325-18DUKEBCKillIsabelle Poehleinset Lucy Mott+0.1
Set 2
11-0DUKEBCServe errDuke+2.1
21-1BCDUKEServe errBoston College+2.0
31-2DUKEDUKEAttack errIsabelle Poehlein+2.8
42-2DUKEBCKillAudrey Rossset Brooklyn Yelland+2.0
52-3BCDUKE×3KillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+2.0
62-4DUKEDUKE×3BlockedChloe Allcroftblk Taylor Williams, Breonna Goss+2.7
72-5DUKEDUKE×3Attack errAudrey Ross+2.5
83-5DUKEBCKillSam Hoppesset Lucie Vesela+1.7
93-6BCDUKEAttack errSofija Marjanovic+1.7
103-7DUKEDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Audrey Ross+2.2
114-7DUKEBCServe errDuke+1.4
124-8BCDUKEKillBreonna Gossset Nikki Quinn+1.5
135-8DUKEBCServe errDuke+1.4
145-9BCDUKE×3KillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+1.6
155-10DUKEDUKE×3AceDuke+1.9
165-11DUKEDUKE×3Attack errIsabelle Poehlein+1.5
176-11DUKEBCKillSofija Marjanovicset Lucy Mott+0.8
186-12BCDUKE×3KillOlivia Wayneset Nikki Quinn+1.0
196-13DUKEDUKE×3AceDukeaced Audrey Ross+1.1
206-14DUKEDUKE×3AceDuke+0.7
217-14DUKEBCKillAudrey Rossset Lucy Mott+0.4
228-14BCBCBlockedAshby Zubchevichblk Chloe Allcroft, Isabelle Poehlein+0.8
238-15BCDUKEKillOlivia Wayneset Nikki Quinn+0.7
249-15DUKEBC×3Serve errDuke+0.5
2510-15BCBC×3BlockedAshby Zubchevichblk Chloe Allcroft, Sam Hoppes+1.1
2611-15BCBC×3BlockedNataly Moravecblk Audrey Ross, Chloe Allcroft+1.5
2711-16BCDUKEKillBreonna Gossset Nikki Quinn+1.4
2812-16DUKEBC×8Serve errDuke+1.1
2913-16BCBC×8KillAva Castro+2.1
3014-16BCBC×8BlockedTaylor Williamsblk Chloe Allcroft, Sam Hoppes+2.9
3115-16BCBC×8Attack errAshby Zubchevich+3.8
3216-16BCBC×8KillSam Hoppesset Brooklyn Yelland+4.6
3317-16BCBC×8BlockedAshby Zubchevichblk Chloe Allcroft, Sam Hoppes+5.2
3418-16BCBC×8BlockedBreonna Gossblk Chloe Allcroft+5.5
3519-16BCBC×8KillSam Hoppesset Brooklyn Yelland+5.2
3619-17BCDUKE×6KillCarlyle Johnsonset Nikki Quinn+2.7
3719-18DUKEDUKE×6KillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+5.0
3819-19DUKEDUKE×6KillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+5.8
3919-20DUKEDUKE×6Attack errSam Hoppes+6.1
4019-21DUKEDUKE×6KillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+5.6
4119-22DUKEDUKE×6KillNataly Moravecset Mailinh Godschall+4.3
4220-22DUKEBCKillSam Hoppesset Lucie Vesela+2.0
4320-23BCDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nataly Moravec+3.0
4421-23DUKEBCKillSam Hoppesset Lucie Vesela+1.7
4521-24BCDUKEAttack errAva Castro+3.0
4621-25DUKEDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+1.5
Set 3
10-1BCDUKEAttack errAudrey Ross+2.0
21-1DUKEBCKillNaomi Watsonset Lucy Mott+2.1
31-2BCDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+2.1
41-3DUKEDUKEKillNikki Quinn+2.9
52-3DUKEBCServe errDuke+2.0
63-3BCBCAttack errAshby Zubchevich+3.2
73-4BCDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+2.2
84-4DUKEBC×5KillAudrey Rossset Lucie Vesela+2.3
95-4BCBC×5BlockedAshby Zubchevichblk Chloe Allcroft, Sam Hoppes+3.6
106-4BCBC×5KillSam Hoppesset Brooklyn Yelland+3.7
117-4BCBC×5BlockedAshby Zubchevichblk Sam Hoppes, Chloe Allcroft+3.8
128-4BCBC×5BlockedAshby Zubchevichblk Sam Hoppes, Chloe Allcroft+3.7
138-5BCDUKE×3KillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+2.2
148-6DUKEDUKE×3BlockedChloe Allcroftblk Breonna Goss+3.5
158-7DUKEDUKE×3KillAshby Zubchevichset Avery Hamlin+3.7
169-7DUKEBCKillSam Hoppesset Lucie Vesela+2.9
179-8BCDUKEServe errBoston College+2.6
1810-8DUKEBCServe errDuke+3.0
1910-9BCDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+2.7
2011-9DUKEBCKillSofija Marjanovicset Lucy Mott+3.1
2111-10BCDUKEKillOlivia Wayneset Nikki Quinn+2.7
2212-10DUKEBCKillAudrey Rossset Lucy Mott+3.2
2312-11BCDUKE×3KillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+2.8
2412-12DUKEDUKE×3AceDukeaced Sofija Marjanovic+4.3
2512-13DUKEDUKE×3Attack errChloe Allcroft+4.3
2613-13DUKEBCKillAudrey Rossset Lucy Mott+3.1
2713-14BCDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Mailinh Godschall+3.1
2814-14DUKEBCServe errDuke+3.2
2914-15BCDUKE×8KillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+3.2
3014-16DUKEDUKE×8KillBreonna Goss+4.4
3114-17DUKEDUKE×8KillAshby Zubchevichset Nataly Moravec+3.8
3214-18DUKEDUKE×8KillNataly Moravecset Avery Hamlin+3.0
3314-19DUKEDUKE×8Bad setLucie Vesela+2.1
3414-20DUKEDUKE×8KillTaylor Williamsset Avery Hamlin+1.3
3514-21DUKEDUKE×8KillBreonna Gossset Audrey Ross+0.7
3614-22DUKEDUKE×8Attack errAudrey Ross+0.3
3715-22DUKEBCKillSam Hoppesset Lucie Vesela+0.1
3815-23BCDUKEKillBreonna Gossset Nikki Quinn+0.1
3916-23DUKEBCKillSam Hoppesset Lucie Vesela·
4016-24BCDUKEServe errBoston College+0.1
4117-24DUKEBCServe errDuke·
4218-24BCBCBlockedNataly Moravecblk Isabelle Poehlein, Naomi Watson·
4318-25BCDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+0.1
Set 4
10-1DUKEDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+2.5
20-2DUKEDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+2.4
31-2DUKEBCKillAudrey Rossset Ava McBride+1.6
41-3BCDUKEKillOlivia Wayneset Nikki Quinn+1.7
51-4DUKEDUKEBad setAva McBride+2.2
62-4DUKEBCServe errNataly Moravec+1.5
72-5BCDUKEKillOlivia Wayneset Nikki Quinn+1.5
82-6DUKEDUKEKillBreonna Gossset Nikki Quinn+2.0
93-6DUKEBCKillAudrey Rossset Lucie Vesela+1.3
104-6BCBCAceAudrey Rossaced Taylor Williams+2.2
114-7BCDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+1.6
124-8DUKEDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Mailinh Godschall+2.1
135-8DUKEBC×3Attack errAshby Zubchevich+1.3
146-8BCBC×3BlockedTaylor Williamsblk Naomi Watson, Sam Hoppes+2.3
157-8BCBC×3BlockedAshby Zubchevichblk Naomi Watson, Sofija Marjanovic+2.7
167-9BCDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+1.9
178-9DUKEBCKillSofija Marjanovicset Brooklyn Yelland+1.9
188-10BCDUKEAttack errAudrey Ross+2.0
199-10DUKEBCKillIsabelle Poehleinset Brooklyn Yelland+2.0
209-11BCDUKE×4KillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+2.1
219-12DUKEDUKE×4BlockedIsabelle Poehleinblk Nataly Moravec, Olivia Wayne+2.7
229-13DUKEDUKE×4KillOlivia Wayneset Nikki Quinn+2.3
239-14DUKEDUKE×4KillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+1.8
2410-14DUKEBCAttack errOlivia Wayne+1.0
2510-15BCDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+1.2
2611-15DUKEBCKillAudrey Rossset Ava McBride+1.0
2712-15BCBCAttack errOlivia Wayne+2.0
2812-16BCDUKEServe errLucie Vesela+1.7
2912-17DUKEDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Olivia Wayne+1.8
3013-17DUKEBCKillAudrey Rossset Lucy Mott+0.9
3113-18BCDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Ashby Zubchevich+1.2
3214-18DUKEBCServe errAvery Hamlin+0.9
3315-18BCBCAttack errAshby Zubchevich+1.9
3415-19BCDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+1.7
3516-19DUKEBCKillNaomi Watsonset Lucy Mott+1.3
3616-20BCDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+1.8
3717-20DUKEBCKillSofija Marjanovicset Ava McBride+1.2
3817-21BCDUKEKillOlivia Wayneset Nikki Quinn+1.8
3918-21DUKEBCAttack errNataly Moravec+1.1
4019-21BCBCKillAudrey Rossset Ava McBride+2.7
4119-22BCDUKEKillOlivia Wayneset Nikki Quinn+2.7
4220-22DUKEBCKillAudrey Rossset Brooklyn Yelland+1.8
4320-23BCDUKE×3KillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+2.8
4420-24DUKEDUKE×3KillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+2.1
4520-25DUKEDUKE×3KillAshby Zubchevichset Nataly Moravec+0.5

Score shown after each rally, Boston College first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).