FinalSun, Nov 1, 2026Watch on ACCNX

Duke def. Syracuse 3–0

RallyIQ pre-match: Duke 92.7% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Nov 1, 11:55 AM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Duke beat visiting Syracuse 3-0 (27-25, 25-22, 25-15) on Sun, Nov 1, 2026. Duke's Ashby Zubchevich led with 19 kills, and Mailinh Godschall added 15 digs.

Data through · final Nov 1

Set123Sets
SYR2522150
DUKE2725253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Ashby Zubchevich hit .432 with 19 kills as Duke rolled past Syracuse.

The biggest single-rally swing was 4.3 points, and Syracuse's high was 14% in Set 1. The gap came from these numbers. Duke went in as RallyIQ's 93% pick.

SyracuseDuke
  • Break %+12.1 pts
    35.948.0

    36 of 75 on serve vs 23 of 64, so Syracuse's sideout was 52.0%.

  • Hitting+.110
    .283.393

    50 kills, 8 errors vs 42 kills, 12 errors.

  • Longest run+3
    47

    7 straight Duke points in the third set stretched an 18–15 lead to 25–15. Final score of the set: 25–15.

Duke above 50Syracuse belowMax swing 4.3%

SyracuseDuke

Aces
Syracuse 4·Duke 7
Serve err
Syracuse 7·Duke 6
Blocks
Syracuse 5·Duke 50 BS · 10 BA vs 0 BS · 10 BA
Digs
Syracuse 43·Duke 45

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Duke above 50 · Syracuse below
SET 1SET 2SET 310050100+4.3% DUKErally 139 · set 3

Biggest swing: 4.3% to Duke — set 1, SYR 23-24 DUKE. Ace by Nataly Moravec on Yuka Urano. DUKE win probability 89% → 93%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

SYR 7.2%92.8% DUKE

Syracuse wins

3-0
0.9%
3-1
2.1%
3-2
4.2%

Duke wins

3-0
50.0%
3-1
31.0%
3-2
11.9%
SYR break %
35.2% vs this opp
DUKE break %
46.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Ace by Nataly Moravec on Yuka Urano

    Set 1 · SYR 23-24 DUKE · DUKE 89% → 93%

  2. 02
    Kiernan StameyAttack error+3.3%

    Attack error by Kiernan Stamey

    Set 1 · SYR 25-27 DUKE · DUKE 93% → 96%

  3. 03
    Marie LaurioKill+3.0%

    Kill by Marie Laurio (set by Charis Burge)

    Set 1 · SYR 21-20 DUKE · SYR 9% → 12%

  4. 04
    Marie LaurioKill+2.9%

    Kill by Marie Laurio (set by Charis Burge)

    Set 1 · SYR 23-22 DUKE · SYR 11% → 14%

  5. 05

    Kill by Kiernan Stamey (set by Charis Burge)

    Set 1 · SYR 24-24 DUKE · SYR 7% → 10%

  6. 06

    Kill by Ashby Zubchevich (set by Nikki Quinn)

    Set 1 · SYR 24-25 DUKE · DUKE 90% → 93%

  7. 07

    Kill by Kiernan Stamey (set by Marie Laurio)

    Set 1 · SYR 25-25 DUKE · SYR 7% → 10%

  8. 08

    Kill by Ashby Zubchevich (set by Nikki Quinn)

    Set 1 · SYR 25-26 DUKE · DUKE 90% → 93%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
318138.447113111010.519.5
314330.3671006102115
34415.000011100427
34214.14310200010.54.5
3226.00000000010.52.5
3002.0003301110010.50.5
3000–3201010002
3001.000000420000
Team totals4212106.2833947437010562
Dukehome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
319337.43210290031.520.5
312337.24313031010.515.5
311116.62500060010.511.5
3618.625023000219
3208.25010010031.53.5
3001.0003100500000
3000–420600002
3000–000000000
3000–7011500000
2000–100000000
1000–000000000
Team totals508107.3934676454010577

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Syracuse vs Duke

Season series · Duke leads 1-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 SYR · DUKE 7

Set 1

25-27

Longest run 3 SYRDUKE 4

Set 2

22-25

Longest run 3 SYRDUKE 4

Set 3

15-25

Longest run 4 SYRDUKE 7

Bars above the line = Duke leads, below = Syracuse leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Syracuse

SlotSideout %Break %
1
62%8/13
42%5/12
2
67%8/12
33%4/12
3
47%7/15
27%3/11
4
50%6/12
36%4/11
5
50%5/10
54%7/13
6
38%5/13
0%0/5
All
52%39/75
36%23/64

Duke

SlotSideout %Break %
1
53%8/15
57%8/14
2
73%8/11
47%7/15
3
67%8/12
20%2/10
4
60%6/10
63%10/16
5
55%6/11
40%4/10
6
100%5/5
50%5/10
All
64%41/64
48%36/75

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

139 rallies

#SYR-DUKESrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1SYRDUKEKillTaylor Williamsset Nikki Quinn+0.5
20-2DUKEDUKEBlockedAbby Nicholsonblk Taylor Williams, Olivia Wayne+0.7
31-2DUKESYRKillMarie Laurioset Charis Burge+0.5
42-2SYRSYRKillKiernan Stameyset Charis Burge+0.9
52-3SYRDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+0.6
63-3DUKESYR×3KillAbby Nicholsonset Charis Burge+0.7
74-3SYRSYR×3AceMarie Laurio+1.1
85-3SYRSYR×3KillKiernan Stameyset Charis Burge+1.3
95-4SYRDUKEKillOlivia Wayneset Nikki Quinn+0.8
106-4DUKESYR×3BlockedNataly Moravecblk Kiernan Stamey, Abby Nicholson+0.9
117-4SYRSYR×3Bad setOlivia Wayne+1.4
128-4SYRSYR×3KillKiernan Stameyset Charis Burge+1.5
138-5SYRDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+0.9
149-5DUKESYRServe errDuke+1.1
159-6SYRDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+0.9
169-7DUKEDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Mailinh Godschall+1.4
1710-7DUKESYRKillKiernan Stameyset Charis Burge+1.2
1810-8SYRDUKE×3KillTaylor Williamsset Nataly Moravec+0.9
1910-9DUKEDUKE×3KillTaylor Williamsset Nikki Quinn+1.4
2010-10DUKEDUKE×3KillTaylor Williamsset Mailinh Godschall+1.3
2111-10DUKESYRServe errDuke+1.0
2212-10SYRSYRAceYuka Uranoaced Nataly Moravec+1.7
2312-11SYRDUKEKillBreonna Gossset Nikki Quinn+1.0
2413-11DUKESYRKillMarie Laurioset Yuka Urano+1.3
2513-12SYRDUKEKillTaylor Williamsset Nikki Quinn+1.0
2614-12DUKESYRKillAbby Nicholsonset Charis Burge+1.3
2714-13SYRDUKEServe errMarie Laurio+1.1
2815-13DUKESYRKillKiernan Stameyset Charis Burge+1.4
2915-14SYRDUKE×4KillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+1.1
3015-15DUKEDUKE×4BlockedBo Nijenhuisblk Breonna Goss, Ashby Zubchevich+1.7
3115-16DUKEDUKE×4KillAshby Zubchevichset Charlotte Glass+1.6
3215-17DUKEDUKE×4AceOlivia Wayneaced Marie Laurio+1.4
3316-17DUKESYR×3Serve errOlivia Wayne+0.9
3417-17SYRSYR×3KillBo Nijenhuisset Charis Burge+1.8
3518-17SYRSYR×3KillKiernan Stameyset Charis Burge+2.2
3618-18SYRDUKEBlockedKeila Gabrielblk Breonna Goss, Ashby Zubchevich+1.4
3718-19DUKEDUKEServe errDuke+2.0
3819-19DUKESYRKillKeila Gabrielset Charis Burge+1.5
3919-20SYRDUKEKillTaylor Williamsset Breonna Goss+1.5
4020-20DUKESYRBad setNikki Quinn+1.6
4121-20SYRSYRKillMarie Laurioset Charis Burge+3.0
4221-21SYRDUKEBlockedKeila Gabrielblk Breonna Goss, Nataly Moravec+1.9
4322-21DUKESYRKillMarie Laurioset Charis Burge+2.5
4422-22SYRDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+2.2
4523-22DUKESYRKillMarie Laurioset Charis Burge+2.9
4623-23SYRDUKEAttack errKiernan Stamey+2.6
4723-24DUKEDUKEAceNataly Moravecaced Yuka Urano+4.3
4824-24DUKESYRKillKiernan Stameyset Charis Burge+2.8
4924-25SYRDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+2.8
5025-25DUKESYRKillKiernan Stameyset Marie Laurio+2.8
5125-26SYRDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+2.8
5225-27DUKEDUKEAttack errKiernan Stamey+3.3
Set 2
11-0DUKESYRKillBo Nijenhuisset Charis Burge+0.5
22-0SYRSYRAceYuka Urano+0.7
32-1SYRDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Ashby Zubchevich+0.5
43-1DUKESYRKillMarie Laurioset Charis Burge+0.6
54-1SYRSYRKillAbby Nicholsonset Charis Burge+0.9
64-2SYRDUKEServe errKeila Gabriel+0.5
74-3DUKEDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+0.7
85-3DUKESYRKillMarie Laurioset Charis Burge+0.6
95-4SYRDUKE×4KillAshby Zubchevichset Mailinh Godschall+0.5
105-5DUKEDUKE×4KillAshby Zubchevichset Mailinh Godschall+0.7
115-6DUKEDUKE×4KillBreonna Goss+0.6
125-7DUKEDUKE×4KillAshby Zubchevichset Avery Hamlin+0.6
136-7DUKESYRKillKiernan Stameyset Charis Burge+0.4
146-8SYRDUKEKillTaylor Williamsset Nikki Quinn+0.4
157-8DUKESYRKillKiernan Stameyset Charis Burge+0.4
167-9SYRDUKEServe errCharis Burge+0.4
178-9DUKESYRKillKiernan Stameyset Charis Burge+0.4
188-10SYRDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+0.4
198-11DUKEDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+0.5
209-11DUKESYRKillKeila Gabrielset Charis Burge+0.4
219-12SYRDUKEKillOlivia Wayneset Nikki Quinn+0.4
229-13DUKEDUKEAttack errAbby Nicholson+0.4
2310-13DUKESYRKillMarie Laurioset Charis Burge+0.3
2410-14SYRDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+0.3
2511-14DUKESYR×3KillMarie Laurioset Charis Burge+0.3
2612-14SYRSYR×3KillAbby Nicholsonset Mailinh Godschall+0.5
2713-14SYRSYR×3KillMarie Laurioset Charis Burge+0.7
2813-15SYRDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+0.5
2914-15DUKESYR×3BlockedAshby Zubchevichblk Charis Burge, Abby Nicholson+0.6
3015-15SYRSYR×3AceAbby Nicholson+1.0
3116-15SYRSYR×3KillKiernan Stameyset Charis Burge+1.3
3216-16SYRDUKEServe errAbby Nicholson+0.8
3316-17DUKEDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+1.1
3417-17DUKESYRKillKiernan Stameyset Charis Burge+0.8
3517-18SYRDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+0.8
3617-19DUKEDUKEKillTaylor Williamsset Nikki Quinn+1.0
3718-19DUKESYRKillMarie Laurioset Charis Burge+0.7
3818-20SYRDUKEKillOlivia Wayneset Nikki Quinn+0.7
3919-20DUKESYRKillMarie Laurioset Kiernan Stamey+0.7
4020-20SYRSYRBlockedOlivia Wayneblk Marie Laurio, Abby Nicholson+1.5
4120-21SYRDUKE×3KillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+1.1
4220-22DUKEDUKE×3AceNataly Moravec+1.3
4320-23DUKEDUKE×3BlockedAbby Nicholsonblk Olivia Wayne, Ashby Zubchevich+0.9
4421-23DUKESYRKillMarie Laurioset Yuka Urano+0.3
4521-24SYRDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+0.6
4622-24DUKESYRServe errDuke+0.2
4722-25SYRDUKEServe errMarie Laurio+0.5
Set 3
11-0SYRSYR×3KillMarie Laurioset Yuka Urano+0.3
22-0SYRSYR×3KillMarie Laurioset Keila Gabriel+0.4
33-0SYRSYR×3KillKiernan Stameyset Charis Burge+0.4
43-1SYRDUKEKillOlivia Wayneset Nikki Quinn+0.2
54-1DUKESYRKillKeila Gabrielset Charis Burge+0.3
64-2SYRDUKEKillOlivia Wayneset Nikki Quinn+0.2
74-3DUKEDUKEAceOlivia Wayneaced Bella Rodriguez+0.4
85-3DUKESYRKillMarie Laurioset Charis Burge+0.3
95-4SYRDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+0.2
106-4DUKESYRAttack errAshby Zubchevich+0.3
116-5SYRDUKEKillTaylor Williamsset Charis Burge+0.2
127-5DUKESYR×4Serve errDuke+0.3
138-5SYRSYR×4Attack errTaylor Williams+0.5
149-5SYRSYR×4Attack errNataly Moravec+0.5
1510-5SYRSYR×4KillKeila Gabrielset Charis Burge+0.5
1610-6SYRDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+0.3
1710-7DUKEDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+0.4
1811-7DUKESYRServe errDuke+0.4
1911-8SYRDUKE×6KillTaylor Williamsset Nikki Quinn+0.3
2011-9DUKEDUKE×6Attack errKiernan Stamey+0.5
2111-10DUKEDUKE×6Attack errBo Nijenhuis+0.5
2211-11DUKEDUKE×6KillOlivia Wayne+0.4
2311-12DUKEDUKE×6KillNataly Moravecset Mailinh Godschall+0.4
2411-13DUKEDUKE×6KillNataly Moravec+0.3
2512-13DUKESYRKillMarie Laurioset Charis Burge+0.2
2612-14SYRDUKE×4KillNataly Moravecset Mailinh Godschall+0.2
2712-15DUKEDUKE×4Attack errAbby Nicholson+0.3
2812-16DUKEDUKE×4Attack errMarie Laurio+0.2
2912-17DUKEDUKE×4AceNataly Moravecaced Kiernan Stamey+0.2
3013-17DUKESYRBlockedNataly Moravecblk Abby Nicholson, Keila Gabriel+0.1
3114-17SYRSYRAttack errAshby Zubchevich+0.2
3214-18SYRDUKEServe errKeila Gabriel+0.2
3315-18DUKESYRKillMarie Laurioset Charis Burge+0.1
3415-19SYRDUKE×7Serve errMarie Laurio+0.2
3515-20DUKEDUKE×7KillAshby Zubchevichset Avery Hamlin+0.1
3615-21DUKEDUKE×7KillAshby Zubchevichset Avery Hamlin+0.1
3715-22DUKEDUKE×7AceAvery Hamlin·
3815-23DUKEDUKE×7KillAshby Zubchevichset Avery Hamlin·
3915-24DUKEDUKE×7AceAvery Hamlinaced Bella Rodriguez·
4015-25DUKEDUKE×7KillTaylor Williamsset Mailinh Godschall·

Score shown after each rally, Syracuse first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).