FinalFri, Sep 11, 2026

AwayAMERICAN

3:0

HomeACC

East Carolina def. Wake Forest 3–0

(25-18, 25-23, 25-11)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
E CAR	25	25	25	3
WAKE	18	23	11	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

WAKE above 50 · E CAR below

Biggest swing: 9.8% to East Carolina — set 2, E CAR 25-23 WAKE. Kill by Kai Bailey (set by Brook Watkins). WAKE win probability 35% → 26%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

E CAR 25.1%74.9% WAKE

East Carolina wins

3-0

4.4%

3-1

8.6%

3-2

12.1%

Wake Forest wins

3-0

26.9%

3-1

28.6%

3-2

19.3%

E CAR break %: 37.9% vs this opp
WAKE break %: 43.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Kai BaileyKill+9.8%
Kill by Kai Bailey (set by Brook Watkins)
Set 2 · E CAR 25-23 WAKE · E CAR 65% → 74%
02
Ryleigh WhitekettleAttack error+6.6%
Attack error by Ryleigh Whitekettle
Set 2 · E CAR 24-21 WAKE · E CAR 65% → 72%
03
Aulie HuffKill+6.1%
Kill by Aulie Huff (set by Brook Watkins)
Set 2 · E CAR 23-21 WAKE · E CAR 59% → 65%
04
Ryleigh WhitekettleKill+5.9%
Kill by Ryleigh Whitekettle (set by Emma Keeping)
Set 2 · E CAR 22-21 WAKE · WAKE 35% → 41%
05
Sanaa WilliamsAttack error+5.6%
Sanaa Williams stuffed by Nina Edwards & Ellie Pate
Set 2 · E CAR 18-16 WAKE · E CAR 53% → 58%
06
Lyla StewartKill+5.6%
Kill by Lyla Stewart (set by Ava Roddey)
Set 2 · E CAR 24-23 WAKE · WAKE 30% → 35%
07
E CAR serverAce+5.3%
East Carolina ace on Amina Ndiaye
Set 2 · E CAR 19-16 WAKE · E CAR 58% → 64%
08
Brook WatkinsAttack error+4.9%
Attack error by Brook Watkins
Set 2 · E CAR 16-16 WAKE · WAKE 46% → 51%

Official NCAA box

Box score

East Carolinaaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
19Ellie PateOH	3	8	2	24	.250	0	0	2	12	2	3	2	4	12
12Aulie HuffOH	3	11	2	18	.500	0	0	1	3	0	0	2	1	12
11Kai BaileyMB	3	7	2	13	.385	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	2.5	9.5
3Angeles AldereteOH	3	8	0	25	.320	0	0	1	6	1	0	0	0	8
22Brook WatkinsS	3	1	1	4	.000	30	3	1	6	0	0	0	0	4
7Nina EdwardsMB	3	2	1	9	.111	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	3.5
2Brooklyn AllisonL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	2	0	7	0	0	0	0	2
16Clara CloningerDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	4	0	0	0	0	1
4Emma OrtizL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	5	1	0	0	0	0
8Allison ButrumL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		37	8	93	.312	33	6	5	47	4	5	8	9	75

Wake Foresthome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
22Ryleigh WhitekettleOH	3	13	7	30	.200	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	14
21Lyla StewartOH	3	5	6	22	-.045	0	2	2	8	0	1	0.5	7.5
23Sanaa WilliamsMB	3	4	3	9	.111	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	5
8Emma KeepingS	3	1	0	4	.250	21	0	2	3	0	0	0	1
10Catherine BurkeMB	2	2	2	11	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2
1Dhru LalajiDS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0
15Amina NdiayeOH	3	4	2	18	.111	2	0	1	6	2	2	1	5
11Sadie PoeckOH	3	3	2	10	.100	0	0	0	2	0	1	0.5	3.5
3Ava RoddeyS	3	0	0	1	.000	7	1	0	4	0	0	0	1
9Andrea RomanDS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	15	0	0	0	0
13Mattea SaundersL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
14Kelis HawkinsMB	2	3	3	6	.000	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	4
6Camille McCoyMB	1	0	0	2	.000	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		35	25	113	.088	32	4	7	42	6	8	4	52

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 7 E CAR · WAKE 5

Set 1

25-18

Longest run 5 E CARWAKE 3

Set 2

25-23

Longest run 6 E CARWAKE 5

Set 3

25-11

Longest run 7 E CARWAKE 2

Bars above the line = Wake Forest leads, below = East Carolina leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

East Carolina

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	50%6/12	50%5/10
2	63%5/8	62%8/13
3	63%5/8	62%8/13
4	50%5/10	44%4/9
5	83%5/6	71%12/17
6	56%5/9	58%7/12
All	58%31/53	59%44/74

Wake Forest

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	46%6/13	58%7/12
2	31%5/16	14%1/7
3	63%5/8	38%3/8
4	50%5/10	58%7/12
5	24%5/21	29%2/7
6	67%4/6	29%2/7
All	41%30/74	42%22/53

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

127 rallies

Rally log

#	E CAR-WAKE	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	E CAR	E CAR	Kill	Ellie Pate	set Brook Watkins	+2.2
2	1-1	E CAR	WAKE	Kill	Lyla Stewart	set Emma Keeping	+1.4
3	2-1	WAKE	E CAR×5	Serve err	WAKE server		+1.5
4	3-1	E CAR	E CAR×5	Attack err	Ryleigh Whitekettle		+2.4
5	4-1	E CAR	E CAR×5	Kill	Ellie Pate	set Brook Watkins	+2.4
6	5-1	E CAR	E CAR×5	Attack err	Lyla Stewart		+2.4
7	6-1	E CAR	E CAR×5	Ace	E CAR server	aced Dhru Lalaji	+2.3
8	6-2	E CAR	WAKE	Kill	Ryleigh Whitekettle	set Emma Keeping	+1.3
9	6-3	WAKE	WAKE	Ace	WAKE server	aced Emma Ortiz	+2.1
10	7-3	WAKE	E CAR	Attack err	Lyla Stewart		+1.7
11	7-4	E CAR	WAKE	Kill	Sanaa Williams	set Emma Keeping	+1.4
12	7-5	WAKE	WAKE	Kill	Amina Ndiaye		+2.4
13	8-5	WAKE	E CAR	Kill	Aulie Huff	set Brook Watkins	+1.9
14	8-6	E CAR	WAKE	Serve err	E CAR server		+1.6
15	9-6	WAKE	E CAR×5	Kill	Angeles Alderete	set Brook Watkins	+1.9
16	10-6	E CAR	E CAR×5	Attack err	Catherine Burke	blk Kai Bailey	+2.7
17	11-6	E CAR	E CAR×5	Ace	E CAR server	aced Team	+2.5
18	12-6	E CAR	E CAR×5	Kill	Aulie Huff	set Brook Watkins	+2.1
19	13-6	E CAR	E CAR×5	Attack err	Lyla Stewart		+1.8
20	13-7	E CAR	WAKE	Kill	Amina Ndiaye	set Mattea Saunders	+0.8
21	14-7	WAKE	E CAR	Serve err	WAKE server		+1.2
22	14-8	E CAR	WAKE	Serve err	E CAR server		+0.8
23	15-8	WAKE	E CAR	Kill	Angeles Alderete	set Brook Watkins	+1.2
24	16-8	E CAR	E CAR	Attack err	Lyla Stewart		+1.2
25	16-9	E CAR	WAKE	Kill	Catherine Burke	set Emma Keeping	+0.5
26	17-9	WAKE	E CAR	Kill	Ellie Pate	set Brook Watkins	+0.8
27	17-10	E CAR	WAKE×3	Kill	Ryleigh Whitekettle	set Emma Keeping	+0.4
28	17-11	WAKE	WAKE×3	Ace	WAKE server	aced Angeles Alderete	+0.9
29	17-12	WAKE	WAKE×3	Attack err	Nina Edwards	blk Sadie Poeck, Sanaa Williams	+1.3
30	18-12	WAKE	E CAR	Attack err	Sadie Poeck		+1.4
31	18-13	E CAR	WAKE	Kill	Sanaa Williams	set Ava Roddey	+0.8
32	18-14	WAKE	WAKE	Ace	WAKE server	aced Ellie Pate	+1.7
33	19-14	WAKE	E CAR	Kill	Aulie Huff	set Brook Watkins	+1.7
34	20-14	E CAR	E CAR	Kill	Aulie Huff	set Brook Watkins	+1.8
35	20-15	E CAR	WAKE	Serve err	E CAR server		+0.6
36	21-15	WAKE	E CAR	Kill	Aulie Huff	set Brook Watkins	+1.1
37	22-15	E CAR	E CAR	Kill	Kai Bailey	set Brook Watkins	+0.8
38	22-16	E CAR	WAKE	Kill	Sadie Poeck	set Ava Roddey	+0.2
39	23-16	WAKE	E CAR	Kill	Aulie Huff	set Brook Watkins	+0.4
40	24-16	E CAR	E CAR	Kill	Angeles Alderete	set Brooklyn Allison	+0.2
41	24-17	E CAR	WAKE	Kill	Ryleigh Whitekettle	set Emma Keeping	+0.0
42	24-18	WAKE	WAKE	Attack err	Kai Bailey		+0.1
43	25-18	WAKE	E CAR	Serve err	WAKE server		+0.1
Set 2
1	0-1	WAKE	WAKE×4	Kill	Amina Ndiaye	set Emma Keeping	+2.7
2	0-2	WAKE	WAKE×4	Attack err	Ellie Pate		+2.6
3	0-3	WAKE	WAKE×4	Kill	Emma Keeping	set Amina Ndiaye	+2.3
4	0-4	WAKE	WAKE×4	Kill	Sanaa Williams	set Emma Keeping	+2.0
5	1-4	WAKE	E CAR	Attack err	Sanaa Williams	blk Ellie Pate	+1.3
6	1-5	E CAR	WAKE	Attack err	Ellie Pate		+1.4
7	2-5	WAKE	E CAR×6	Kill	Brook Watkins	set Emma Ortiz	+1.3
8	3-5	E CAR	E CAR×6	Kill	Aulie Huff	set Brook Watkins	+2.3
9	4-5	E CAR	E CAR×6	Kill	Ellie Pate		+2.7
10	5-5	E CAR	E CAR×6	Ace	E CAR server	aced Mattea Saunders	+3.1
11	6-5	E CAR	E CAR×6	Kill	Nina Edwards	set Brook Watkins	+3.4
12	7-5	E CAR	E CAR×6	Kill	Ellie Pate	set Brook Watkins	+3.6
13	7-6	E CAR	WAKE	Serve err	E CAR server		+2.2
14	8-6	WAKE	E CAR	Kill	Aulie Huff	set Brook Watkins	+2.6
15	8-7	E CAR	WAKE×5	Kill	Ryleigh Whitekettle	set Emma Keeping	+2.3
16	8-8	WAKE	WAKE×5	Kill	Catherine Burke		+3.5
17	8-9	WAKE	WAKE×5	Kill	Ryleigh Whitekettle	set Emma Keeping	+3.4
18	8-10	WAKE	WAKE×5	Kill	Ryleigh Whitekettle	set Andrea Roman	+3.2
19	8-11	WAKE	WAKE×5	Kill	Lyla Stewart		+2.8
20	9-11	WAKE	E CAR	Attack err	Ryleigh Whitekettle		+1.8
21	10-11	E CAR	E CAR	Attack err	Catherine Burke		+3.2
22	10-12	E CAR	WAKE	Kill	Ryleigh Whitekettle	set Emma Keeping	+2.3
23	11-12	WAKE	E CAR×5	Kill	Aulie Huff	set Brook Watkins	+2.3
24	12-12	E CAR	E CAR×5	Attack err	Ryleigh Whitekettle		+3.9
25	13-12	E CAR	E CAR×5	Attack err	Sanaa Williams	blk Kai Bailey	+4.3
26	14-12	E CAR	E CAR×5	Kill	Kai Bailey	set Brook Watkins	+4.6
27	15-12	E CAR	E CAR×5	Kill	Kai Bailey	set Brook Watkins	+4.5
28	15-13	E CAR	WAKE	Kill	Ryleigh Whitekettle	set Emma Keeping	+2.6
29	15-14	WAKE	WAKE	Kill	Lyla Stewart	set Ava Roddey	+4.3
30	16-14	WAKE	E CAR	Kill	Angeles Alderete	set Emma Ortiz	+3.5
31	16-15	E CAR	WAKE	Kill	Lyla Stewart	set Ava Roddey	+3.0
32	16-16	WAKE	WAKE	Attack err	Brook Watkins		+4.9
33	17-16	WAKE	E CAR×3	Serve err	WAKE server		+3.7
34	18-16	E CAR	E CAR×3	Attack err	Sanaa Williams	blk Nina Edwards, Ellie Pate	+5.6
35	19-16	E CAR	E CAR×3	Ace	E CAR server	aced Amina Ndiaye	+5.3
36	19-17	E CAR	WAKE	Kill	Sadie Poeck	set Ava Roddey	+2.7
37	20-17	WAKE	E CAR	Kill	Ellie Pate	set Brook Watkins	+3.9
38	20-18	E CAR	WAKE	Attack err	Aulie Huff	blk Kelis Hawkins, Amina Ndiaye	+2.8
39	21-18	WAKE	E CAR	Serve err	WAKE server		+4.1
40	21-19	E CAR	WAKE	Kill	Ryleigh Whitekettle	set Emma Keeping	+2.7
41	22-19	WAKE	E CAR	Kill	Ellie Pate	set Brook Watkins	+4.3
42	22-20	E CAR	WAKE	Kill	Ryleigh Whitekettle	set Emma Keeping	+2.6
43	22-21	WAKE	WAKE	Kill	Ryleigh Whitekettle	set Emma Keeping	+5.9
44	23-21	WAKE	E CAR	Kill	Aulie Huff	set Brook Watkins	+6.1
45	24-21	E CAR	E CAR	Attack err	Ryleigh Whitekettle		+6.6
46	24-22	E CAR	WAKE	Kill	Sanaa Williams	set Emma Keeping	+1.6
47	24-23	WAKE	WAKE	Kill	Lyla Stewart	set Ava Roddey	+5.6
48	25-23	WAKE	E CAR	Kill	Kai Bailey	set Brook Watkins	+9.8
Set 3
1	1-0	E CAR	E CAR×3	Attack err	Amina Ndiaye	blk Ellie Pate	+2.6
2	2-0	E CAR	E CAR×3	Attack err	Ryleigh Whitekettle		+2.8
3	3-0	E CAR	E CAR×3	Attack err	Kelis Hawkins		+2.9
4	3-1	E CAR	WAKE	Kill	Kelis Hawkins	set Emma Keeping	+1.8
5	4-1	WAKE	E CAR	Kill	Kai Bailey	set Brook Watkins	+2.0
6	4-2	E CAR	WAKE	Kill	Kelis Hawkins	set Emma Keeping	+1.8
7	5-2	WAKE	E CAR×4	Attack err	Ryleigh Whitekettle		+2.1
8	6-2	E CAR	E CAR×4	Ace	E CAR server	aced Amina Ndiaye	+3.0
9	7-2	E CAR	E CAR×4	Kill	Aulie Huff	set Brook Watkins	+2.8
10	8-2	E CAR	E CAR×4	Ace	E CAR server	aced Dhru Lalaji	+2.6
11	8-3	E CAR	WAKE	Kill	Ryleigh Whitekettle	set Emma Keeping	+1.4
12	8-4	WAKE	WAKE	Attack err	Aulie Huff	blk Lyla Stewart, Sanaa Williams	+2.4
13	9-4	WAKE	E CAR×4	Kill	Ellie Pate	set Brook Watkins	+2.0
14	10-4	E CAR	E CAR×4	Kill	Nina Edwards	set Brook Watkins	+2.6
15	11-4	E CAR	E CAR×4	Attack err	Lyla Stewart	blk Aulie Huff, Nina Edwards	+2.2
16	12-4	E CAR	E CAR×4	Attack err	Lyla Stewart		+1.8
17	12-5	E CAR	WAKE	Kill	Sadie Poeck	set Ava Roddey	+0.8
18	12-6	WAKE	WAKE	Ace	WAKE server	aced Ellie Pate	+1.6
19	13-6	WAKE	E CAR×7	Serve err	WAKE server		+1.5
20	14-6	E CAR	E CAR×7	Attack err	Sadie Poeck		+1.6
21	15-6	E CAR	E CAR×7	Kill	Angeles Alderete	set Brook Watkins	+1.2
22	16-6	E CAR	E CAR×7	Kill	Angeles Alderete		+0.8
23	17-6	E CAR	E CAR×7	Attack err	Amina Ndiaye	blk Aulie Huff, Kai Bailey	+0.4
24	18-6	E CAR	E CAR×7	Kill	Angeles Alderete	set Brook Watkins	+0.2
25	19-6	E CAR	E CAR×7	Kill	Kai Bailey		+0.1
26	19-7	E CAR	WAKE	Kill	Amina Ndiaye	set Emma Keeping	+0.0
27	20-7	WAKE	E CAR	Serve err	WAKE server		+0.1
28	21-7	E CAR	E CAR	Attack err	Kelis Hawkins		+0.0
29	21-8	E CAR	WAKE	Attack err	Kai Bailey	blk Kelis Hawkins, Amina Ndiaye	+0.0
30	21-9	WAKE	WAKE	Kill	Ryleigh Whitekettle	set Amina Ndiaye	+0.0
31	22-9	WAKE	E CAR	Kill	Angeles Alderete	set Brook Watkins	+0.0
32	22-10	E CAR	WAKE	Serve err	E CAR server		+0.0
33	22-11	WAKE	WAKE	Kill	Kelis Hawkins	set Emma Keeping	+0.0
34	23-11	WAKE	E CAR×3	Kill	Kai Bailey	set Brook Watkins	+0.0
35	24-11	E CAR	E CAR×3	Attack err	Kelis Hawkins		+0.0
36	25-11	E CAR	E CAR×3	Attack err	Ryleigh Whitekettle	blk Ellie Pate, Nina Edwards	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, East Carolina first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.