Final · 5 setsSat, Sep 12, 2026 · Neutral site

ETSU def. East Carolina 3–2

ETSU beat East Carolina 3-2 (25-18, 12-25, 19-25, 25-14, 15-9) on Sat, Sep 12, 2026 at a neutral site. Makayla Bays led ETSU with 14 kills; East Carolina's Ellie Pate had a match-high 17.

Data through · final Sep 12

Set12345Sets
E CAR1825251492
ETSU25121925153

Win probability

ETSU above 50 · East Carolina below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 4SET 510050100+10.3% ETSUrally 187 · set 5

Biggest swing: 10.3% to ETSU — set 5, E CAR 2-5 ETSU. Kill by Karis Chatfield (set by Bailey Gohlke). ETSU win probability 58% → 68%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

E CAR 74.4%25.6% ETSU

East Carolina wins

3-0
26.5%
3-1
28.4%
3-2
19.4%

ETSU wins

3-0
4.6%
3-1
8.8%
3-2
12.3%
E CAR break %
42.7% vs this opp
ETSU break %
37.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Karis ChatfieldKill+10.3%

    Kill by Karis Chatfield (set by Bailey Gohlke)

    Set 5 · E CAR 2-5 ETSU · ETSU 58% → 68%

  2. 02
    ETSUAce+10.0%

    ETSU ace on Emma Ortiz

    Set 5 · E CAR 1-3 ETSU · ETSU 47% → 57%

  3. 03

    Angeles Alderete stuffed by Phoenix Fogel & Chloe Smith

    Set 5 · E CAR 2-6 ETSU · ETSU 68% → 78%

  4. 04
    Sophia DavisKill+9.1%

    Kill by Sophia Davis (set by Bailey Gohlke)

    Set 5 · E CAR 0-1 ETSU · ETSU 37% → 46%

  5. 05
    Ellie PateAttack error+7.6%

    Attack error by Ellie Pate

    Set 5 · E CAR 5-10 ETSU · ETSU 84% → 91%

  6. 06

    Kill by Karis Chatfield (set by Bailey Gohlke)

    Set 5 · E CAR 2-4 ETSU · ETSU 51% → 58%

  7. 07
    Ellie PateAttack error+6.9%

    Attack error by Ellie Pate

    Set 5 · E CAR 5-9 ETSU · ETSU 77% → 84%

  8. 08
    Chloe SmithKill+6.7%

    Kill by Chloe Smith (set by Melanie Morris)

    Set 5 · E CAR 4-8 ETSU · ETSU 75% → 82%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
517847.19100250010.517.5
512322.4090001012214
59224.29210370010.59.5
55418.056011200217
5002.0004301811011
1204.500000001013
55010.500000001227
5000–1211100002
5000–010200001
5000–000410000
5000–300520000
Team totals5017127.260484845548891
ETSUhome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
512323.39100010010517
514431.32301350010.515.5
511422.3182049002112
5113.0002300700001
37423.13002161010.59.5
34312.08310000010.54.5
57211.45500020111.58.5
5002.0004121720001
5012-.5002903300000
35111.364001000427
3000–000100000
2405.800110200216
Team totals6523145.290605145341221296

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 E CAR · ETSU 5

Set 1

18-25

Longest run 3 E CARETSU 5

Set 2

25-12

Longest run 4 E CARETSU 2

Set 3

25-19

Longest run 3 E CARETSU 2

Set 4

14-25

Longest run 2 E CARETSU 5

Set 5

9-15

Longest run 2 E CARETSU 4

Bars above the line = ETSU leads, below = East Carolina leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

East Carolina

SlotSideout %Break %
1
76%13/17
9%1/11
2
69%11/16
28%5/18
3
43%10/23
31%5/16
4
83%10/12
29%4/14
5
77%10/13
38%6/16
6
60%9/15
44%7/16
All
66%63/96
31%28/91

ETSU

SlotSideout %Break %
1
81%13/16
31%5/16
2
71%12/17
14%2/14
3
77%10/13
52%11/21
4
67%10/15
38%6/16
5
59%10/17
17%2/12
6
62%8/13
41%7/17
All
69%63/91
34%33/96

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (5 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

187 rallies

#E CAR-ETSUSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1ETSUETSUKillGianna Blairset Alex Kreutzmann+2.2
20-2ETSUETSUKillKaris Chatfield+2.3
31-2ETSUE CARAttack errElizabeth Aylward+1.5
41-3E CARETSUKillElizabeth Aylwardset Alex Kreutzmann+1.6
52-3ETSUE CARServe errETSU+1.5
62-4E CARETSU×5BlockedEllie Pateblk Gianna Blair, Elizabeth Aylward+1.7
72-5ETSUETSU×5KillGianna Blairset Alex Kreutzmann+2.5
82-6ETSUETSU×5KillMakayla Baysset Alex Kreutzmann+2.5
92-7ETSUETSU×5KillMalia Brinkmanset Alex Kreutzmann+2.3
102-8ETSUETSU×5KillGianna Blair+2.1
113-8ETSUE CARKillNina Edwardsset Brook Watkins+1.1
123-9E CARETSUServe errEast Carolina+1.5
134-9ETSUE CARKillNina Edwardsset Brook Watkins+1.1
144-10E CARETSUKillMakayla Baysset Bailey Gohlke+1.5
154-11ETSUETSUAttack errKai Bailey+1.8
165-11ETSUE CARKillAngeles Aldereteset Brook Watkins+0.9
175-12E CARETSUKillMalia Brinkmanset Bailey Gohlke+1.2
186-12ETSUE CARKillAngeles Aldereteset Brook Watkins+0.8
196-13E CARETSUServe errEast Carolina+1.2
207-13ETSUE CARKillEllie Pateset Brook Watkins+0.8
217-14E CARETSUServe errEast Carolina+1.2
227-15ETSUETSUKillMakayla Baysset Alex Kreutzmann+1.3
238-15ETSUE CARKillEllie Pateset Angeles Alderete+0.5
249-15E CARE CARBlockedGianna Blairblk Nina Edwards+1.1
259-16E CARETSU×3KillGianna Blairset Alex Kreutzmann+1.1
269-17ETSUETSU×3AceETSUaced Emma Ortiz+1.1
279-18ETSUETSU×3KillElizabeth Aylwardset Alex Kreutzmann+0.7
2810-18ETSUE CARKillEkwe Anwah+0.2
2911-18E CARE CARAttack errMakayla Bays+0.5
3011-19E CARETSUServe errEast Carolina+0.6
3111-20ETSUETSUKillPhoenix Fogelset Bailey Gohlke+0.5
3212-20ETSUE CARKillAulie Huffset Brook Watkins+0.1
3312-21E CARETSUKillPhoenix Fogelset Malia Brinkman+0.3
3413-21ETSUE CAR×3Serve errETSU+0.1
3514-21E CARE CAR×3BlockedBailey Gohlkeblk Kai Bailey+0.3
3615-21E CARE CAR×3KillKai Bailey+0.4
3715-22E CARETSUKillKaris Chatfieldset Bailey Gohlke+0.6
3815-23ETSUETSUAceETSU+0.3
3916-23ETSUE CARKillKai Baileyset Brook Watkins+0.1
4016-24E CARETSUKillPhoenix Fogelset Bailey Gohlke+0.1
4117-24ETSUE CARAttack errMakayla Bays·
4218-24E CARE CARAttack errGianna Blair+0.1
4318-25E CARETSUKillElizabeth Aylwardset Alex Kreutzmann+0.1
Set 2
10-1E CARETSUKillKaris Chatfieldset Alex Kreutzmann+2.1
21-1ETSUE CARKillKai Baileyset Brook Watkins+1.9
31-2E CARETSUKillGianna Blairset Alex Kreutzmann+2.1
42-2ETSUE CAR×3Attack errMakayla Bays+2.0
53-2E CARE CAR×3Attack errGianna Blair+2.9
64-2E CARE CAR×3KillEllie Pateset Brooklyn Allison+2.7
74-3E CARETSUKillGianna Blairset Alex Kreutzmann+1.8
85-3ETSUE CAR×3KillEllie Pateset Brook Watkins+1.8
96-3E CARE CAR×3KillAngeles Aldereteset Brook Watkins+2.5
107-3E CARE CAR×3KillEllie Pateset Brook Watkins+2.2
117-4E CARETSUKillMakayla Baysset Bailey Gohlke+1.3
128-4ETSUE CARKillAulie Huffset Brook Watkins+1.5
139-4E CARE CARKillKai Baileyset Brook Watkins+1.8
149-5E CARETSUKillMalia Brinkmanset Bailey Gohlke+1.1
1510-5ETSUE CARKillAngeles Aldereteset Emma Ortiz+1.2
1611-5E CARE CARAttack errElizabeth Aylward+1.4
1711-6E CARETSUKillElizabeth Aylwardset Bailey Gohlke+0.8
1812-6ETSUE CARKillKai Baileyset Brook Watkins+0.9
1912-7E CARETSUBlockedEllie Pateblk Gianna Blair, Karis Chatfield+0.8
2013-7ETSUE CAR×3KillKai Baileyset Brook Watkins+0.9
2114-7E CARE CAR×3BlockedMakayla Baysblk Brook Watkins+1.0
2215-7E CARE CAR×3Attack errKaris Chatfield+0.6
2315-8E CARETSUKillGianna Blairset Alex Kreutzmann+0.3
2415-9ETSUETSUAceETSUaced Allison Butrum+0.7
2516-9ETSUE CARKillEllie Pateset Brook Watkins+0.6
2616-10E CARETSUKillMakayla Baysset Melanie Morris+0.4
2717-10ETSUE CARKillEllie Pateset Brook Watkins+0.6
2817-11E CARETSUKillMakayla Baysset Bailey Gohlke+0.4
2918-11ETSUE CAR×4KillAngeles Aldereteset Brook Watkins+0.5
3019-11E CARE CAR×4AceEast Carolina+0.4
3120-11E CARE CAR×4Attack errMalia Brinkman+0.2
3221-11E CARE CAR×4BlockedKaris Chatfieldblk Kai Bailey, Aulie Huff+0.1
3321-12E CARETSUKillPhoenix Fogelset Bailey Gohlke·
3422-12ETSUE CAR×4KillKai Baileyset Brook Watkins·
3523-12E CARE CAR×4AceEast Carolinaaced Melanie Morris·
3624-12E CARE CAR×4Attack errElizabeth Aylward·
3725-12E CARE CAR×4KillAngeles Aldereteset Brook Watkins·
Set 3
11-0ETSUE CARKillKai Baileyset Brook Watkins+1.9
21-1E CARETSUKillGianna Blairset Alex Kreutzmann+2.1
32-1ETSUE CARKillEkwe Anwahset Brook Watkins+2.0
42-2E CARETSUBlockedEllie Pateblk Gianna Blair, Chloe Smith+2.1
53-2ETSUE CARKillAulie Huffset Brook Watkins+2.0
63-3E CARETSUBlockedAulie Huffblk Malia Brinkman, Gianna Blair+2.1
74-3ETSUE CARBlockedMalia Brinkmanblk Ekwe Anwah, Angeles Alderete+2.1
84-4E CARETSUKillMalia Brinkmanset Bailey Gohlke+2.2
95-4ETSUE CARKillAngeles Aldereteset Brook Watkins+2.1
105-5E CARETSUBlockedKai Baileyblk Phoenix Fogel+2.3
116-5ETSUE CARServe errETSU+2.2
126-6E CARETSUServe errEast Carolina+2.3
137-6ETSUE CAR×3Attack errKaris Chatfield+2.3
148-6E CARE CAR×3AceEast Carolinaaced Elizabeth Aylward+3.2
159-6E CARE CAR×3AceEast Carolinaaced Melanie Morris+2.9
169-7E CARETSUKillChloe Smithset Alex Kreutzmann+1.8
1710-7ETSUE CAR×3KillEllie Pateset Brook Watkins+1.9
1811-7E CARE CAR×3KillEllie Pateset Brook Watkins+2.5
1912-7E CARE CAR×3BlockedChloe Smithblk Ekwe Anwah, Ellie Pate+2.0
2012-8E CARETSUKillElizabeth Aylwardset Alex Kreutzmann+1.1
2113-8ETSUE CARKillAulie Huffset Brook Watkins+1.3
2213-9E CARETSUKillElizabeth Aylwardset Alex Kreutzmann+1.1
2314-9ETSUE CARKillEkwe Anwahset Brook Watkins+1.3
2415-9E CARE CARAttack errElizabeth Aylward+1.5
2515-10E CARETSUKillPhoenix Fogelset Bailey Gohlke+0.7
2616-10ETSUE CARServe errETSU+0.9
2717-10E CARE CARAttack errKaris Chatfield+0.9
2817-11E CARETSUServe errEast Carolina+0.4
2917-12ETSUETSUKillKaris Chatfieldset Bailey Gohlke+0.9
3018-12ETSUE CARKillAngeles Aldereteset Emma Ortiz+0.9
3118-13E CARETSUServe errEast Carolina+0.6
3218-14ETSUETSUKillChloe Smithset Alex Kreutzmann+1.4
3319-14ETSUE CARKillEllie Pateset Brook Watkins+1.3
3419-15E CARETSUKillChloe Smithset Alex Kreutzmann+0.9
3520-15ETSUE CARServe errETSU+1.3
3620-16E CARETSUServe errEast Carolina+0.8
3721-16ETSUE CARServe errETSU+1.2
3821-17E CARETSUKillElizabeth Aylwardset Alex Kreutzmann+0.7
3922-17ETSUE CARServe errETSU+1.1
4023-17E CARE CARBlockedMalia Brinkmanblk Kai Bailey, Aulie Huff+0.7
4123-18E CARETSUKillMakayla Baysset Bailey Gohlke+0.2
4224-18ETSUE CARKillAngeles Aldereteset Emma Ortiz+0.3
4324-19E CARETSUKillMakayla Baysset Bailey Gohlke+0.1
4425-19ETSUE CARKillKai Baileyset Brook Watkins+0.1
Set 4
10-1E CARETSUKillSophia Davisset Bailey Gohlke+1.8
21-1ETSUE CARKillEllie Pateset Brook Watkins+1.7
31-2E CARETSUKillMakayla Baysset Bailey Gohlke+1.8
42-2ETSUE CARKillEllie Pateset Brook Watkins+1.7
52-3E CARETSUKillPhoenix Fogelset Bailey Gohlke+1.9
62-4ETSUETSUKillGianna Blairset Karis Chatfield+2.9
73-4ETSUE CARKillEllie Pateset Brook Watkins+1.8
83-5E CARETSUKillGianna Blairset Alex Kreutzmann+2.1
93-6ETSUETSUKillGianna Blairset Alex Kreutzmann+3.1
104-6ETSUE CARServe errETSU+1.8
114-7E CARETSUAttack errEllie Pate+2.2
125-7ETSUE CARKillEllie Pateset Brook Watkins+1.9
135-8E CARETSUKillMakayla Baysset Alex Kreutzmann+2.2
145-9ETSUETSUKillMakayla Bays+3.1
156-9ETSUE CARServe errETSU+1.8
166-10E CARETSUKillSophia Davisset Bailey Gohlke+2.2
177-10ETSUE CARKillKai Baileyset Brook Watkins+1.8
187-11E CARETSU×3KillKaris Chatfieldset Sophia Davis+2.2
197-12ETSUETSU×3Bad setBrook Watkins+3.0
207-13ETSUETSU×3AceETSUaced Brook Watkins+2.6
218-13ETSUE CARBlockedPhoenix Fogelblk Ekwe Anwah+1.2
228-14E CARETSU×5KillPhoenix Fogelset Bailey Gohlke+1.7
238-15ETSUETSU×5KillKaris Chatfieldset Melanie Morris+2.0
248-16ETSUETSU×5BlockedEllie Pateblk Gianna Blair, Chloe Smith+1.4
258-17ETSUETSU×5BlockedAulie Huffblk Gianna Blair, Karis Chatfield+0.9
268-18ETSUETSU×5BlockedEllie Pateblk Gianna Blair, Chloe Smith+0.5
279-18ETSUE CARKillAulie Huffset Brook Watkins+0.2
2810-18E CARE CARAttack errAlex Kreutzmann+0.4
2910-19E CARETSUKillKaris Chatfieldset Alex Kreutzmann+0.5
3011-19ETSUE CARServe errETSU+0.2
3111-20E CARETSU×3KillGianna Blairset Alex Kreutzmann+0.4
3211-21ETSUETSU×3BlockedKai Baileyblk Sophia Davis, Gianna Blair+0.3
3311-22ETSUETSU×3BlockedAulie Huffblk Gianna Blair, Makayla Bays+0.1
3412-22ETSUE CARServe errETSU·
3512-23E CARETSUBlockedAngeles Aldereteblk Sophia Davis, Gianna Blair·
3613-23ETSUE CARAttack errPhoenix Fogel·
3713-24E CARETSUKillSophia Davisset Bailey Gohlke·
3814-24ETSUE CARKillEllie Pateset Brook Watkins·
3914-25E CARETSUKillKaris Chatfieldset Bailey Gohlke+1.4
Set 5
10-1ETSUETSUKillSophia Davisset Bailey Gohlke+9.1
21-1ETSUE CARServe errETSU+5.8
31-2E CARETSUKillMakayla Baysset Bailey Gohlke+6.5
41-3ETSUETSUAceETSUaced Emma Ortiz+10.0
52-3ETSUE CARServe errETSU+6.0
62-4E CARETSU×3KillKaris Chatfieldset Bailey Gohlke+7.1
72-5ETSUETSU×3KillKaris Chatfieldset Bailey Gohlke+10.3
82-6ETSUETSU×3BlockedAngeles Aldereteblk Phoenix Fogel, Chloe Smith+9.4
93-6ETSUE CARKillKai Baileyset Brook Watkins+4.8
103-7E CARETSUKillChloe Smithset Bailey Gohlke+6.6
114-7ETSUE CARKillKai Baileyset Brook Watkins+4.8
124-8E CARETSUKillChloe Smithset Melanie Morris+6.7
135-8ETSUE CARKillEllie Pateset Brook Watkins+4.7
145-9E CARETSU×4Attack errEllie Pate+6.9
155-10ETSUETSU×4Attack errEllie Pate+7.6
165-11ETSUETSU×4KillMakayla Baysset Melanie Morris+4.9
175-12ETSUETSU×4Attack errAulie Huff+2.5
186-12ETSUE CARKillEkwe Anwahset Brook Watkins+0.6
197-12E CARE CARKillEllie Pateset Brook Watkins+1.7
207-13E CARETSUKillAlex Kreutzmannset Karis Chatfield+2.3
218-13ETSUE CARKillEkwe Anwahset Brook Watkins+0.7
228-14E CARETSUKillMakayla Baysset Bailey Gohlke+1.6
239-14ETSUE CARServe errETSU+0.3
249-15E CARETSUKillKaris Chatfieldset Bailey Gohlke+0.7

Score shown after each rally, East Carolina first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).