FinalFri, Sep 4, 2026

AwayPATRIOT

0:3

HomeCAA

Northeastern def. Holy Cross 3–0

(25-14, 25-14, 25-22)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
HOLYCR	14	14	22	0
NOEAST	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

NOEAST above 50 · HOLYCR below

Biggest swing: 2.4% to Holy Cross — set 1, HOLYCR 10-10 NOEAST. Kill by Isa Glover (set by Drew Flanagan). NOEAST win probability 77% → 75%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

HOLYCR 24.0%76.0% NOEAST

Holy Cross wins

3-0

4.2%

3-1

8.2%

3-2

11.7%

Northeastern wins

3-0

27.8%

3-1

29.0%

3-2

19.1%

HOLYCR break %: 40.8% vs this opp
NOEAST break %: 46.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Isa GloverKill+2.4%
Kill by Isa Glover (set by Drew Flanagan)
Set 1 · HOLYCR 10-10 NOEAST · HOLYCR 23% → 25%
02
Valentina MeirellesKill+2.4%
Kill by Valentina Meirelles (set by Beatrice Gennari)
Set 1 · HOLYCR 11-13 NOEAST · NOEAST 77% → 79%
03
Emma SorensenAttack error+2.1%
Emma Sorensen stuffed by Kaylin Daniels & Valentina Meirelles
Set 1 · HOLYCR 11-14 NOEAST · NOEAST 79% → 81%
04
Georgia MurphyKill+2.0%
Kill by Georgia Murphy (set by Tuana Ozarpaci)
Set 1 · HOLYCR 8-9 NOEAST · HOLYCR 20% → 23%
05
Georgia MurphyKill+2.0%
Kill by Georgia Murphy (set by Drew Flanagan)
Set 1 · HOLYCR 11-11 NOEAST · HOLYCR 23% → 25%
06
HOLYCR serverService error+1.9%
Holy Cross service error
Set 1 · HOLYCR 11-12 NOEAST · NOEAST 75% → 77%
07
HOLYCR serverService error+1.9%
Holy Cross service error
Set 1 · HOLYCR 10-11 NOEAST · NOEAST 75% → 77%
08
Sarahya CollegeAttack error+1.7%
Attack error by Sarahya College
Set 1 · HOLYCR 11-15 NOEAST · NOEAST 81% → 83%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Holy Crossaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
8Lacey MurphyMB	3	4	1	8	.375	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	5
16Georgia MurphyOH	3	4	1	6	.500	0	0	2	7	1	1	0.5	4.5
22Drew FlanaganS	3	0	0	0	–	9	1	2	7	0	0	0	1
10Emma SorensenOH	2	5	7	26	-.077	0	2	0	7	2	0	0	7
23Sarahya CollegeMB	2	3	3	10	.000	0	0	0	2	0	1	0.5	3.5
13Isa GloverMB	2	3	1	9	.222	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
26Keira MullenS	3	2	2	9	.000	3	0	0	1	0	0	0	2
21Alana WhitwellDS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	1
3Tuana OzarpaciS	3	0	1	1	-1.000	14	0	2	4	0	0	0	0
15Elizabeth HallDS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	0	1	2	0	0	0
1KK GreenOH	2	7	3	20	.200	0	0	1	4	0	1	0.5	7.5
11Kat TeepeOPP	2	2	4	11	-.182	0	0	0	3	0	1	0.5	2.5
7Nora BenjaminsMB	1	1	1	5	.000	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
9Savannah BaronDS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		31	24	105	.067	30	4	10	39	5	8	4	50

Northeasternhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
15Brynn SmithOH	3	8	2	25	.240	0	2	2	6	1	1	0.5	10.5
11Kaylin DanielsMB	3	5	1	13	.308	0	0	0	2	0	6	3	8
18Cayenne CemanOH	3	4	2	13	.154	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	5
12Valentina MeirellesOH	3	4	0	9	.444	0	0	0	2	0	2	1	5
9Beatrice GennariMB	3	2	0	3	.667	1	0	0	5	0	1	0.5	2.5
3Sofia KingS	3	0	0	0	–	13	0	0	7	0	0	0	0
5Emma RowellOPP	3	9	5	16	.250	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	10
13Arina SosinovicaS	3	1	0	1	1.000	13	1	1	9	0	0	0	2
2Abbie CallawayOH	3	0	0	3	.000	0	1	0	3	0	0	0	1
1Aven CrosbyL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	1	11	2	0	0	0
20Bryce LeatherwoodMB	2	1	0	1	1.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
17Iris CankoL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
14Quinnlin HickmanOPP	1	1	1	3	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		35	11	87	.276	31	5	4	46	4	14	7	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 3 HOLYCR · NOEAST 8

Set 1

14-25

Longest run 3 HOLYCRNOEAST 8

Set 2

14-25

Longest run 2 HOLYCRNOEAST 6

Set 3

22-25

Longest run 3 HOLYCRNOEAST 6

Bars above the line = Northeastern leads, below = Holy Cross leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Holy Cross

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	29%6/21	45%5/11
2	60%6/10	25%2/8
3	25%5/20	40%4/10
4	45%5/11	38%3/8
5	100%5/5	38%3/8
6	67%4/6	29%2/7
All	42%31/73	37%19/52

Northeastern

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	54%7/13	44%4/9
2	86%6/7	68%13/19
3	55%6/11	54%7/13
4	71%5/7	76%16/21
5	56%5/9	17%1/6
6	80%4/5	20%1/5
All	63%33/52	58%42/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

125 rallies

Rally log

#	HOLYCR-NOEAST	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	HOLYCR	NOEAST	Kill	Beatrice Gennari	set Sofia King	+1.4
2	0-2	NOEAST	NOEAST	Attack err	Emma Sorensen	blk Kaylin Daniels, Valentina Meirelles	+1.7
3	1-2	NOEAST	HOLYCR	Attack err	Cayenne Ceman		+1.3
4	1-3	HOLYCR	NOEAST×3	Kill	Cayenne Ceman	set Sofia King	+1.3
5	1-4	NOEAST	NOEAST×3	Attack err	Sarahya College		+1.6
6	1-5	NOEAST	NOEAST×3	Attack err	Emma Sorensen	blk Emma Rowell, Kaylin Daniels	+1.4
7	2-5	NOEAST	HOLYCR	Attack err	Emma Rowell		+1.0
8	3-5	HOLYCR	HOLYCR	Attack err	Emma Rowell	blk Lacey Murphy, Kat Teepe	+1.6
9	3-6	HOLYCR	NOEAST×3	Kill	Arina Sosinovica	set Arina Sosinovica	+1.3
10	3-7	NOEAST	NOEAST×3	Attack err	Kat Teepe		+1.5
11	3-8	NOEAST	NOEAST×3	Ace	NOEAST server	aced Elizabeth Hall	+1.2
12	4-8	NOEAST	HOLYCR	Attack err	Emma Rowell		+0.9
13	5-8	HOLYCR	HOLYCR	Kill	Kat Teepe	set Alana Whitwell	+1.4
14	5-9	HOLYCR	NOEAST	Kill	Brynn Smith	set Arina Sosinovica	+1.2
15	6-9	NOEAST	HOLYCR×3	Kill	Lacey Murphy	set Tuana Ozarpaci	+1.1
16	7-9	HOLYCR	HOLYCR×3	Attack err	Brynn Smith		+1.7
17	8-9	HOLYCR	HOLYCR×3	Kill	Georgia Murphy	set Tuana Ozarpaci	+2.0
18	8-10	HOLYCR	NOEAST	Kill	Emma Rowell	set Arina Sosinovica	+1.6
19	9-10	NOEAST	HOLYCR	Attack err	Brynn Smith		+1.6
20	10-10	HOLYCR	HOLYCR	Kill	Isa Glover	set Drew Flanagan	+2.4
21	10-11	HOLYCR	NOEAST	Serve err	HOLYCR server		+1.9
22	11-11	NOEAST	HOLYCR	Kill	Georgia Murphy	set Drew Flanagan	+2.0
23	11-12	HOLYCR	NOEAST×8	Serve err	HOLYCR server		+1.9
24	11-13	NOEAST	NOEAST×8	Kill	Valentina Meirelles	set Beatrice Gennari	+2.4
25	11-14	NOEAST	NOEAST×8	Attack err	Emma Sorensen	blk Kaylin Daniels, Valentina Meirelles	+2.1
26	11-15	NOEAST	NOEAST×8	Attack err	Sarahya College		+1.7
27	11-16	NOEAST	NOEAST×8	Attack err	Emma Sorensen		+1.4
28	11-17	NOEAST	NOEAST×8	Kill	Brynn Smith	set Sofia King	+1.0
29	11-18	NOEAST	NOEAST×8	Attack err	Emma Sorensen		+0.6
30	11-19	NOEAST	NOEAST×8	Kill	Cayenne Ceman	set Sofia King	+0.4
31	12-19	NOEAST	HOLYCR	Kill	Isa Glover	set Drew Flanagan	+0.2
32	12-20	HOLYCR	NOEAST	Attack err	Lacey Murphy		+0.2
33	13-20	NOEAST	HOLYCR	Attack err	Kaylin Daniels		+0.1
34	14-20	HOLYCR	HOLYCR	Kill	Kat Teepe	set Tuana Ozarpaci	+0.3
35	14-21	HOLYCR	NOEAST×5	Kill	Emma Rowell	set Arina Sosinovica	+0.4
36	14-22	NOEAST	NOEAST×5	Kill	Kaylin Daniels	set Arina Sosinovica	+0.2
37	14-23	NOEAST	NOEAST×5	Attack err	Kat Teepe	blk Kaylin Daniels, Brynn Smith	+0.1
38	14-24	NOEAST	NOEAST×5	Attack err	Emma Sorensen		+0.0
39	14-25	NOEAST	NOEAST×5	Attack err	Kat Teepe		+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	NOEAST	NOEAST	Attack err	Keira Mullen	blk Beatrice Gennari, Cayenne Ceman	+1.4
2	0-2	NOEAST	NOEAST	Kill	Beatrice Gennari		+1.3
3	1-2	NOEAST	HOLYCR	Kill	KK Green	set Tuana Ozarpaci	+1.0
4	2-2	HOLYCR	HOLYCR	Kill	Cayenne Ceman	set Tuana Ozarpaci	+1.5
5	2-3	HOLYCR	NOEAST	Kill	Brynn Smith	set Sofia King	+1.1
6	2-4	NOEAST	NOEAST	Attack err	KK Green		+1.4
7	3-4	NOEAST	HOLYCR	Kill	Keira Mullen	set Tuana Ozarpaci	+1.1
8	3-5	HOLYCR	NOEAST×3	Kill	Valentina Meirelles	set Sofia King	+1.1
9	3-6	NOEAST	NOEAST×3	Attack err	KK Green		+1.3
10	3-7	NOEAST	NOEAST×3	Kill	Emma Rowell	set Aven Crosby	+1.1
11	4-7	NOEAST	HOLYCR	Kill	KK Green	set Drew Flanagan	+0.8
12	5-7	HOLYCR	HOLYCR	Kill	KK Green	set Drew Flanagan	+1.3
13	5-8	HOLYCR	NOEAST	Serve err	HOLYCR server		+1.0
14	6-8	NOEAST	HOLYCR	Attack err	Emma Rowell	blk Georgia Murphy, Isa Glover	+1.0
15	6-9	HOLYCR	NOEAST	Kill	Emma Rowell	set Arina Sosinovica	+1.1
16	7-9	NOEAST	HOLYCR	Serve err	NOEAST server		+1.0
17	8-9	HOLYCR	HOLYCR	Kill	Lacey Murphy		+1.6
18	8-10	HOLYCR	NOEAST	Serve err	HOLYCR server		+1.3
19	8-11	NOEAST	NOEAST	Kill	Brynn Smith	set Sofia King	+1.5
20	9-11	NOEAST	HOLYCR	Kill	Georgia Murphy	set Keira Mullen	+1.1
21	9-12	HOLYCR	NOEAST	Kill	Valentina Meirelles	set Sofia King	+1.2
22	9-13	NOEAST	NOEAST	Ace	NOEAST server	aced Georgia Murphy	+1.3
23	10-13	NOEAST	HOLYCR	Serve err	NOEAST server		+0.9
24	10-14	HOLYCR	NOEAST	Serve err	HOLYCR server		+1.0
25	11-14	NOEAST	HOLYCR	Kill	KK Green	set Tuana Ozarpaci	+0.9
26	11-15	HOLYCR	NOEAST×3	Kill	Kaylin Daniels	set Sofia King	+1.0
27	11-16	NOEAST	NOEAST×3	Kill	Kaylin Daniels	set Arina Sosinovica	+1.1
28	11-17	NOEAST	NOEAST×3	Kill	Emma Rowell	set Arina Sosinovica	+0.8
29	12-17	NOEAST	HOLYCR	Serve err	NOEAST server		+0.4
30	12-18	HOLYCR	NOEAST×6	Kill	Emma Rowell	set Arina Sosinovica	+0.6
31	12-19	NOEAST	NOEAST×6	Attack err	Kat Teepe		+0.5
32	12-20	NOEAST	NOEAST×6	Kill	Emma Rowell	set Arina Sosinovica	+0.3
33	12-21	NOEAST	NOEAST×6	Kill	Brynn Smith		+0.1
34	12-22	NOEAST	NOEAST×6	Bad set	Keira Mullen		+0.0
35	12-23	NOEAST	NOEAST×6	Attack err	Isa Glover		+0.0
36	13-23	NOEAST	HOLYCR	Kill	Georgia Murphy	set Keira Mullen	+0.0
37	13-24	HOLYCR	NOEAST	Serve err	HOLYCR server		+0.0
38	14-24	NOEAST	HOLYCR	Kill	Lacey Murphy	set Keira Mullen	+0.0
39	14-25	HOLYCR	NOEAST	Kill	Emma Rowell	set Arina Sosinovica	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	HOLYCR	HOLYCR×3	Attack err	Cayenne Ceman	blk Lacey Murphy, Sarahya College	+0.8
2	2-0	HOLYCR	HOLYCR×3	Ace	HOLYCR server	aced Aven Crosby	+0.9
3	3-0	HOLYCR	HOLYCR×3	Kill	KK Green	set Tuana Ozarpaci	+0.9
4	3-1	HOLYCR	NOEAST	Kill	Bryce Leatherwood	set Sofia King	+0.6
5	3-2	NOEAST	NOEAST	Attack err	Tuana Ozarpaci		+0.9
6	4-2	NOEAST	HOLYCR	Kill	KK Green	set Tuana Ozarpaci	+0.7
7	5-2	HOLYCR	HOLYCR	Ace	HOLYCR server	aced Team	+1.0
8	5-3	HOLYCR	NOEAST	Kill	Valentina Meirelles	set Sofia King	+0.7
9	5-4	NOEAST	NOEAST	Ace	NOEAST server	aced Emma Sorensen	+0.9
10	6-4	NOEAST	HOLYCR	Kill	Sarahya College	set Tuana Ozarpaci	+0.8
11	7-4	HOLYCR	HOLYCR	Attack err	Emma Rowell		+1.0
12	7-5	HOLYCR	NOEAST×6	Kill	Kaylin Daniels	set Emma Sorensen	+0.7
13	7-6	NOEAST	NOEAST×6	Kill	Emma Rowell	set Arina Sosinovica	+1.0
14	7-7	NOEAST	NOEAST×6	Kill	Brynn Smith	set Arina Sosinovica	+1.0
15	7-8	NOEAST	NOEAST×6	Attack err	Nora Benjamins		+0.9
16	7-9	NOEAST	NOEAST×6	Attack err	Keira Mullen		+0.9
17	7-10	NOEAST	NOEAST×6	Attack err	KK Green	blk Emma Rowell, Kaylin Daniels	+0.8
18	8-10	NOEAST	HOLYCR	Kill	KK Green	set Elizabeth Hall	+0.6
19	8-11	HOLYCR	NOEAST	Serve err	HOLYCR server		+0.6
20	9-11	NOEAST	HOLYCR	Kill	Emma Sorensen	set Elizabeth Hall	+0.6
21	9-12	HOLYCR	NOEAST	Serve err	HOLYCR server		+0.6
22	10-12	NOEAST	HOLYCR	Kill	Emma Sorensen	set Drew Flanagan	+0.6
23	10-13	HOLYCR	NOEAST	Kill	Brynn Smith	set Aven Crosby	+0.7
24	10-14	NOEAST	NOEAST	Ace	NOEAST server	aced Elizabeth Hall	+0.7
25	11-14	NOEAST	HOLYCR	Serve err	NOEAST server		+0.5
26	12-14	HOLYCR	HOLYCR	Kill	Sarahya College	set Tuana Ozarpaci	+0.8
27	12-15	HOLYCR	NOEAST×4	Kill	Cayenne Ceman	set Sofia King	+0.7
28	12-16	NOEAST	NOEAST×4	Ace	NOEAST server	aced Emma Sorensen	+0.8
29	12-17	NOEAST	NOEAST×4	Attack err	Sarahya College	blk Kaylin Daniels, Cayenne Ceman	+0.6
30	12-18	NOEAST	NOEAST×4	Attack err	Georgia Murphy		+0.4
31	13-18	NOEAST	HOLYCR	Kill	Lacey Murphy	set Tuana Ozarpaci	+0.2
32	13-19	HOLYCR	NOEAST	Kill	Kaylin Daniels	set Sofia King	+0.3
33	14-19	NOEAST	HOLYCR	Kill	Sarahya College	set Tuana Ozarpaci	+0.2
34	15-19	HOLYCR	HOLYCR	Ace	HOLYCR server	aced Brynn Smith	+0.4
35	15-20	HOLYCR	NOEAST	Serve err	HOLYCR server		+0.4
36	16-20	NOEAST	HOLYCR	Attack err	Quinnlin Hickman	blk KK Green, Nora Benjamins	+0.3
37	17-20	HOLYCR	HOLYCR	Kill	Nora Benjamins	set Drew Flanagan	+0.6
38	17-21	HOLYCR	NOEAST	Kill	Quinnlin Hickman	set Aven Crosby	+0.6
39	17-22	NOEAST	NOEAST	Attack err	Emma Sorensen		+0.5
40	18-22	NOEAST	HOLYCR	Kill	Emma Sorensen	set Elizabeth Hall	+0.2
41	19-22	HOLYCR	HOLYCR	Kill	Emma Sorensen	set Drew Flanagan	+0.5
42	19-23	HOLYCR	NOEAST	Kill	Brynn Smith	set Arina Sosinovica	+0.6
43	20-23	NOEAST	HOLYCR	Kill	Keira Mullen	set Drew Flanagan	+0.3
44	20-24	HOLYCR	NOEAST	Serve err	HOLYCR server		+0.5
45	21-24	NOEAST	HOLYCR	Kill	Emma Sorensen	set Tuana Ozarpaci	+0.2
46	22-24	HOLYCR	HOLYCR	Ace	HOLYCR server	aced Aven Crosby	+0.5
47	22-25	HOLYCR	NOEAST	Kill	Cayenne Ceman	set Bryce Leatherwood	+0.9

Score shown after each rally, Holy Cross first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.