FinalSat, Sep 12, 2026

AwayPATRIOT

0:3

HomeBIG-EAST

Providence def. Holy Cross 3–0

(25-19, 25-20, 25-21)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
HOLYCR	19	20	21	0
PROV	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

PROV above 50 · HOLYCR below

Biggest swing: 1.5% to Providence — set 2, HOLYCR 19-21 PROV. Kill by Sophia Adkins (set by Miller McDonald). PROV win probability 95% → 96%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

HOLYCR 9.9%90.1% PROV

Holy Cross wins

3-0

1.3%

3-1

3.0%

3-2

5.6%

Providence wins

3-0

44.6%

3-1

31.6%

3-2

13.9%

HOLYCR break %: 39.0% vs this opp
PROV break %: 48.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Sophia AdkinsKill+1.5%
Kill by Sophia Adkins (set by Miller McDonald)
Set 2 · HOLYCR 19-21 PROV · PROV 95% → 96%
02
Lyric BerryKill+1.4%
Kill by Lyric Berry (set by Sarah Musial)
Set 2 · HOLYCR 17-18 PROV · PROV 93% → 95%
03
PROV serverAce+1.4%
Providence ace on KK Green
Set 2 · HOLYCR 16-16 PROV · PROV 92% → 94%
04
KK GreenAttack error+1.3%
KK Green stuffed by Shea Dupuis & Aubrey Easterwood
Set 2 · HOLYCR 15-14 PROV · PROV 91% → 92%
05
Emma SorensenKill+1.3%
Kill by Emma Sorensen (set by Tuana Ozarpaci)
Set 2 · HOLYCR 12-8 PROV · HOLYCR 9% → 10%
06
HOLYCR serverService error+1.3%
Holy Cross service error
Set 2 · HOLYCR 19-20 PROV · PROV 94% → 95%
07
Macy TaylorAttack error+1.3%
Macy Taylor stuffed by Sarahya College & Kyla Harris
Set 2 · HOLYCR 19-19 PROV · HOLYCR 5% → 6%
08
KK GreenKill+1.3%
Kill by KK Green (set by Tuana Ozarpaci)
Set 2 · HOLYCR 17-16 PROV · HOLYCR 6% → 8%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Holy Crossaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
10Emma SorensenOH	3	8	6	29	.069	0	0	8	0	0	0	0	8
23Sarahya CollegeOH	3	3	2	10	.100	0	0	1	0	0	5	2.5	5.5
8Lacey MurphyMB	3	3	3	9	.000	0	0	4	0	1	2	2	5
19Kyla HarrisMB	3	2	2	14	.000	0	0	1	0	0	3	1.5	3.5
3Tuana OzarpaciS	3	1	0	3	.333	15	1	4	0	0	0	0	1
16Georgia MurphyOH	1	0	2	5	-.400	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	0
1KK GreenOH	3	7	6	26	.038	0	1	6	3	0	0	0	7
11Kat TeepeOH	3	7	2	18	.278	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	7
26Keira MullenS	3	1	0	1	1.000	11	3	9	0	0	0	0	1
15Elizabeth HallDS	3	0	0	2	.000	2	0	9	4	0	0	0	0
21Alana WhitwellL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
9Savannah BaronDS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		32	23	117	.077	29	8	46	8	1	10	6	60

Providencehome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
9Tori OtterMB	3	9	2	20	.350	0	0	0	3	0	2	1	10
21Sophia AdkinsOH	3	8	4	22	.182	0	0	0	3	0	1	0.5	8.5
0Aubrey EasterwoodMB	3	5	2	14	.214	0	0	2	1	0	5	2.5	7.5
11Lyric BerryMB	3	4	1	8	.375	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	5
15Macy TaylorOH	3	4	6	21	-.095	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	4
1Miller McDonaldS	3	0	0	0	–	17	3	2	5	0	0	0	3
7Shea DupuisOH	3	5	4	19	.053	0	0	0	1	1	4	3	8
20Sarah MusialS	3	1	0	5	.200	10	2	0	6	0	0	0	3
8Gwenyth KossOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	3	1	7	0	0	0	3
6Ava DyerL/DS	3	0	0	3	.000	4	0	2	17	0	0	0	0
Team totals		36	19	112	.152	31	8	8	49	1	14	8	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 HOLYCR · PROV 7

Set 1

19-25

Longest run 4 HOLYCRPROV 5

Set 2

20-25

Longest run 5 HOLYCRPROV 4

Set 3

21-25

Longest run 3 HOLYCRPROV 7

Bars above the line = Providence leads, below = Holy Cross leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Holy Cross

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	44%7/16	46%6/13
2	50%7/14	22%2/9
3	88%7/8	30%3/10
4	55%6/11	36%4/11
5	43%6/14	40%4/10
6	55%6/11	25%2/8
All	53%39/74	34%21/61

Providence

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	67%8/12	50%7/14
2	88%7/8	50%7/14
3	54%7/13	36%4/11
4	100%6/6	45%5/11
5	50%6/12	60%9/15
6	60%6/10	33%3/9
All	66%40/61	47%35/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

135 rallies

Rally log

#	HOLYCR-PROV	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	PROV	HOLYCR	Attack err	Macy Taylor		+0.9
2	1-1	HOLYCR	PROV	Attack err	Emma Sorensen		+0.8
3	2-1	PROV	HOLYCR	Attack err	Sophia Adkins		+0.9
4	2-2	HOLYCR	PROV	Serve err	HOLYCR server		+0.8
5	3-2	PROV	HOLYCR	Serve err	PROV server		+1.0
6	3-3	HOLYCR	PROV×5	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+0.9
7	3-4	PROV	PROV×5	Kill	Shea Dupuis	set Sarah Musial	+1.0
8	3-5	PROV	PROV×5	Ace	PROV server	aced Elizabeth Hall	+0.9
9	3-6	PROV	PROV×5	Attack err	Georgia Murphy	blk Aubrey Easterwood, Shea Dupuis	+0.8
10	3-7	PROV	PROV×5	Ace	PROV server	aced Team	+0.7
11	4-7	PROV	HOLYCR	Kill	Keira Mullen	set Sarah Musial	+0.5
12	4-8	HOLYCR	PROV	Attack err	Kat Teepe	blk Aubrey Easterwood, Sophia Adkins	+0.5
13	5-8	PROV	HOLYCR×3	Serve err	PROV server		+0.5
14	6-8	HOLYCR	HOLYCR×3	Attack err	Shea Dupuis		+0.8
15	7-8	HOLYCR	HOLYCR×3	Attack err	Aubrey Easterwood	blk Lacey Murphy, Sarahya College	+1.1
16	7-9	HOLYCR	PROV	Attack err	Georgia Murphy	blk Aubrey Easterwood, Shea Dupuis	+0.8
17	7-10	PROV	PROV	Kill	Macy Taylor	set Sarah Musial	+0.9
18	8-10	PROV	HOLYCR	Serve err	PROV server		+0.7
19	8-11	HOLYCR	PROV	Serve err	HOLYCR server		+0.7
20	9-11	PROV	HOLYCR	Attack err	Lyric Berry		+0.7
21	9-12	HOLYCR	PROV×4	Kill	Lyric Berry	set Miller McDonald	+0.8
22	9-13	PROV	PROV×4	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Ava Dyer	+0.8
23	9-14	PROV	PROV×4	Attack err	Emma Sorensen	blk Tori Otter, Lyric Berry	+0.6
24	9-15	PROV	PROV×4	Kill	Lyric Berry		+0.4
25	10-15	PROV	HOLYCR	Kill	Emma Sorensen	set Tuana Ozarpaci	+0.3
26	11-15	HOLYCR	HOLYCR	Kill	Emma Sorensen	set Elizabeth Hall	+0.5
27	11-16	HOLYCR	PROV	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+0.5
28	12-16	PROV	HOLYCR	Attack err	Tori Otter		+0.4
29	13-16	HOLYCR	HOLYCR	Attack err	Aubrey Easterwood		+0.8
30	13-17	HOLYCR	PROV	Attack err	Kyla Harris		+0.7
31	14-17	PROV	HOLYCR	Kill	Kat Teepe	set Keira Mullen	+0.6
32	14-18	HOLYCR	PROV	Attack err	KK Green		+0.7
33	15-18	PROV	HOLYCR	Kill	Kat Teepe	set Keira Mullen	+0.6
34	15-19	HOLYCR	PROV×3	Kill	Shea Dupuis	set Sarah Musial	+0.7
35	15-20	PROV	PROV×3	Attack err	Lacey Murphy		+0.6
36	15-21	PROV	PROV×3	Attack err	KK Green		+0.4
37	16-21	PROV	HOLYCR×4	Kill	Tuana Ozarpaci		+0.2
38	17-21	HOLYCR	HOLYCR×4	Kill	Emma Sorensen	set Elizabeth Hall	+0.4
39	18-21	HOLYCR	HOLYCR×4	Kill	Lacey Murphy	set Tuana Ozarpaci	+0.7
40	19-21	HOLYCR	HOLYCR×4	Attack err	Shea Dupuis		+1.2
41	19-22	HOLYCR	PROV×4	Kill	Macy Taylor	set Sarah Musial	+1.2
42	19-23	PROV	PROV×4	Ace	PROV server	aced Elizabeth Hall	+0.9
43	19-24	PROV	PROV×4	Ace	PROV server	aced KK Green	+0.4
44	19-25	PROV	PROV×4	Ace	PROV server	aced Elizabeth Hall	+0.1
Set 2
1	1-0	HOLYCR	HOLYCR	Attack err	Sophia Adkins		+0.8
2	2-0	HOLYCR	HOLYCR	Kill	KK Green	set Keira Mullen	+0.9
3	2-1	HOLYCR	PROV	Attack err	KK Green		+0.6
4	2-2	PROV	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Ava Dyer	+0.8
5	3-2	PROV	HOLYCR	Kill	KK Green	set Keira Mullen	+0.7
6	3-3	HOLYCR	PROV×4	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+0.6
7	3-4	PROV	PROV×4	Attack err	KK Green		+0.7
8	3-5	PROV	PROV×4	Attack err	Lacey Murphy		+0.6
9	3-6	PROV	PROV×4	Kill	Shea Dupuis	set Sarah Musial	+0.6
10	4-6	PROV	HOLYCR×3	Kill	Kat Teepe	set Keira Mullen	+0.4
11	5-6	HOLYCR	HOLYCR×3	Attack err	Sophia Adkins	blk Lacey Murphy	+0.7
12	6-6	HOLYCR	HOLYCR×3	Kill	Sarahya College	set Tuana Ozarpaci	+0.8
13	6-7	HOLYCR	PROV	Attack err	Lacey Murphy		+0.6
14	7-7	PROV	HOLYCR	Kill	KK Green	set Tuana Ozarpaci	+0.7
15	7-8	HOLYCR	PROV	Serve err	HOLYCR server		+0.6
16	8-8	PROV	HOLYCR×5	Kill	Emma Sorensen	set Tuana Ozarpaci	+0.7
17	9-8	HOLYCR	HOLYCR×5	Attack err	Shea Dupuis		+1.0
18	10-8	HOLYCR	HOLYCR×5	Attack err	Macy Taylor	blk Kyla Harris, Sarahya College	+1.2
19	11-8	HOLYCR	HOLYCR×5	Kill	Emma Sorensen	set Tuana Ozarpaci	+1.3
20	12-8	HOLYCR	HOLYCR×5	Kill	Emma Sorensen	set Tuana Ozarpaci	+1.3
21	12-9	HOLYCR	PROV	Attack err	Sarahya College		+0.8
22	13-9	PROV	HOLYCR	Kill	Emma Sorensen	set Tuana Ozarpaci	+1.1
23	13-10	HOLYCR	PROV	Serve err	HOLYCR server		+0.8
24	14-10	PROV	HOLYCR	Kill	Kyla Harris	set Keira Mullen	+1.1
25	14-11	HOLYCR	PROV	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+0.8
26	14-12	PROV	PROV	Kill	Aubrey Easterwood	set Miller McDonald	+1.2
27	15-12	PROV	HOLYCR	Serve err	PROV server		+1.2
28	15-13	HOLYCR	PROV	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+0.9
29	15-14	PROV	PROV	Attack err	KK Green	blk Shea Dupuis, Aubrey Easterwood	+1.3
30	16-14	PROV	HOLYCR	Bad set	Sarah Musial		+1.2
31	16-15	HOLYCR	PROV	Attack err	KK Green	blk Shea Dupuis, Aubrey Easterwood	+1.0
32	16-16	PROV	PROV	Ace	PROV server	aced KK Green	+1.4
33	17-16	PROV	HOLYCR	Kill	KK Green	set Tuana Ozarpaci	+1.3
34	17-17	HOLYCR	PROV	Kill	Aubrey Easterwood	set Sarah Musial	+1.1
35	17-18	PROV	PROV	Kill	Lyric Berry	set Sarah Musial	+1.4
36	18-18	PROV	HOLYCR	Attack err	Macy Taylor		+1.2
37	18-19	HOLYCR	PROV	Attack err	Emma Sorensen	blk Shea Dupuis	+1.2
38	19-19	PROV	HOLYCR	Attack err	Macy Taylor	blk Sarahya College, Kyla Harris	+1.3
39	19-20	HOLYCR	PROV×3	Serve err	HOLYCR server		+1.3
40	19-21	PROV	PROV×3	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Miller McDonald	+1.5
41	19-22	PROV	PROV×3	Attack err	Emma Sorensen		+1.1
42	20-22	PROV	HOLYCR	Serve err	PROV server		+0.6
43	20-23	HOLYCR	PROV×3	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+0.9
44	20-24	PROV	PROV×3	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Miller McDonald	+0.6
45	20-25	PROV	PROV×3	Attack err	Kyla Harris		+0.2
Set 3
1	0-1	PROV	PROV	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+0.3
2	1-1	PROV	HOLYCR×3	Serve err	PROV server		+0.3
3	2-1	HOLYCR	HOLYCR×3	Kill	Lacey Murphy	set Keira Mullen	+0.4
4	3-1	HOLYCR	HOLYCR×3	Attack err	Macy Taylor		+0.4
5	3-2	HOLYCR	PROV	Serve err	HOLYCR server		+0.3
6	4-2	PROV	HOLYCR	Kill	Kat Teepe	set Keira Mullen	+0.3
7	4-3	HOLYCR	PROV	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+0.3
8	5-3	PROV	HOLYCR	Kill	Lacey Murphy	set Tuana Ozarpaci	+0.4
9	5-4	HOLYCR	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Miller McDonald	+0.3
10	6-4	PROV	HOLYCR	Kill	Sarahya College	set Tuana Ozarpaci	+0.4
11	6-5	HOLYCR	PROV×3	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Sarah Musial	+0.3
12	6-6	PROV	PROV×3	Attack err	Sarahya College		+0.4
13	6-7	PROV	PROV×3	Ace	PROV server	aced Elizabeth Hall	+0.4
14	7-7	PROV	HOLYCR	Attack err	Macy Taylor	blk Sarahya College, Kyla Harris	+0.3
15	7-8	HOLYCR	PROV	Kill	Macy Taylor	set Sarah Musial	+0.3
16	8-8	PROV	HOLYCR	Serve err	PROV server		+0.3
17	8-9	HOLYCR	PROV	Attack err	Kat Teepe		+0.3
18	9-9	PROV	HOLYCR	Serve err	PROV server		+0.3
19	9-10	HOLYCR	PROV	Attack err	Emma Sorensen	blk Lyric Berry, Tori Otter	+0.3
20	10-10	PROV	HOLYCR	Kill	Kat Teepe	set Keira Mullen	+0.4
21	10-11	HOLYCR	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Miller McDonald	+0.3
22	11-11	PROV	HOLYCR×3	Kill	KK Green	set Tuana Ozarpaci	+0.4
23	12-11	HOLYCR	HOLYCR×3	Attack err	Tori Otter		+0.5
24	13-11	HOLYCR	HOLYCR×3	Kill	Emma Sorensen	set Tuana Ozarpaci	+0.6
25	13-12	HOLYCR	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Miller McDonald	+0.4
26	14-12	PROV	HOLYCR	Kill	KK Green	set Tuana Ozarpaci	+0.5
27	14-13	HOLYCR	PROV×7	Kill	Sarah Musial		+0.4
28	14-14	PROV	PROV×7	Kill	Shea Dupuis	set Ava Dyer	+0.6
29	14-15	PROV	PROV×7	Attack err	Emma Sorensen		+0.5
30	14-16	PROV	PROV×7	Kill	Aubrey Easterwood		+0.5
31	14-17	PROV	PROV×7	Kill	Shea Dupuis	set Tuana Ozarpaci	+0.4
32	14-18	PROV	PROV×7	Kill	Aubrey Easterwood	set Sarah Musial	+0.3
33	14-19	PROV	PROV×7	Ace	PROV server	aced KK Green	+0.2
34	15-19	PROV	HOLYCR	Attack err	Shea Dupuis		+0.1
35	15-20	HOLYCR	PROV	Kill	Aubrey Easterwood	set Alana Whitwell	+0.2
36	16-20	PROV	HOLYCR	Kill	Kat Teepe	set Alana Whitwell	+0.1
37	17-20	HOLYCR	HOLYCR	Kill	KK Green	set Emma Sorensen	+0.2
38	17-21	HOLYCR	PROV	Kill	Macy Taylor	set Ava Dyer	+0.2
39	17-22	PROV	PROV	Kill	Lyric Berry	set Miller McDonald	+0.2
40	18-22	PROV	HOLYCR	Kill	Kyla Harris	set Keira Mullen	+0.1
41	18-23	HOLYCR	PROV	Serve err	HOLYCR server		+0.1
42	19-23	PROV	HOLYCR	Kill	Kat Teepe	set Keira Mullen	+0.1
43	19-24	HOLYCR	PROV	Serve err	HOLYCR server		+0.1
44	20-24	PROV	HOLYCR	Kill	Sarahya College	set Tuana Ozarpaci	+0.0
45	21-24	HOLYCR	HOLYCR	Attack err	Sophia Adkins	blk Lacey Murphy, Sarahya College	+0.1
46	21-25	HOLYCR	PROV	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Holy Cross first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.