FinalThu, Sep 17, 2026

AwayBIG-WEST

0:3

HomeAMERICAN

Tulane def. Cal St. Fullerton 3–0

(25-13, 25-18, 25-21)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
CSFULL	13	18	21	0
TULANE	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

TULANE above 50 · CSFULL below

Biggest swing: 0.3% to Cal St. Fullerton — set 1, CSFULL 2-1 TULANE. Cal St. Fullerton ace on Team. TULANE win probability 98% → 98%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

CSFULL 1.5%98.5% TULANE

Cal St. Fullerton wins

3-0

0.1%

3-1

0.4%

3-2

1.0%

Tulane wins

3-0

69.8%

3-1

23.6%

3-2

5.0%

CSFULL break %: 33.9% vs this opp
TULANE break %: 50.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
CSFULL serverAce+0.3%
Cal St. Fullerton ace on Team
Set 1 · CSFULL 2-1 TULANE · CSFULL 2% → 2%
02
Chloe ListAttack error+0.2%
Chloe List stuffed by Hannah Hass
Set 2 · CSFULL 5-3 TULANE · CSFULL 1% → 1%
03
Hannah HassAttack error+0.2%
Hannah Hass stuffed by Chloe List & Riley Tucker
Set 1 · CSFULL 3-4 TULANE · TULANE 98% → 99%
04
Sofia ShineKill+0.2%
Kill by Sofia Shine (set by Kaieva Christensen)
Set 1 · CSFULL 3-2 TULANE · CSFULL 2% → 2%
05
Chloe ListAttack error+0.2%
Chloe List stuffed by Sibley Oster & Zariah Crosby
Set 3 · CSFULL 19-18 TULANE · CSFULL 0% → 1%
06
Madison McLinKill+0.2%
Kill by Madison McLin
Set 1 · CSFULL 0-1 TULANE · TULANE 98% → 99%
07
Amelia HagginsKill+0.2%
Kill by Amelia Haggins (set by Sibley Oster)
Set 1 · CSFULL 3-5 TULANE · TULANE 99% → 99%
08
Hannah HassAttack error+0.2%
Hannah Hass stuffed by Chloe List & Riley Tucker
Set 2 · CSFULL 5-5 TULANE · TULANE 99% → 99%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Cal St. Fullertonaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
17Marisa NakataL/DS	3	10	6	27	.148	0	0	0	10	0	0	0	0	10
5Bella RislingOH	3	10	5	21	.238	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10
9Hannah HassMB	3	6	7	24	-.042	0	0	1	1	0	1	2	2	8
3Sofia ShineOH	3	4	4	19	.000	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	4.5
6Sibley OsterS	3	0	2	3	-.667	26	1	1	2	0	0	2	1	2
13Emilia GrahamMB	1	1	0	2	.500	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
8Kaia HerwegL/DS	3	0	2	4	-.500	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	0	0
15Kaieva ChristensenL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	1	10	0	0	0	0	0
11Mia FeldhausL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	0
18Zariah CrosbyMB	2	2	1	4	.250	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1.5	3.5
Team totals		33	27	104	.058	29	2	3	31	4	2	6	5	52

Tulanehome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
1Avery BurksOH	3	9	2	22	.318	1	0	0	2	0	2	0	2	11
2Riley TuckerMB	3	5	2	13	.231	0	0	0	3	0	0	4	2	7
3Charlee SolomonS	3	5	0	7	.714	29	1	1	8	0	0	2	1	7
53Amelia HagginsOH	3	3	2	10	.100	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
5Dayla OrtizL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	8	0	0	0	0	0
11Madison McLinMB	2	7	0	11	.636	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	7.5
23Chloe ListOH	3	10	5	21	.238	0	0	0	3	0	1	2	2	12
12Kailey LeonardL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	2	1	4	0	0	0	0	2
9Makena LimL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	5	0	0	9	1	0	0	0	0
26Zoe RachowS	2	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
8Ziya SistaMB	1	1	2	3	-.333	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	2
Team totals		40	13	87	.310	36	4	4	40	2	4	10	9	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 CSFULL · TULANE 6

Set 1

13-25

Longest run 2 CSFULLTULANE 6

Set 2

18-25

Longest run 3 CSFULLTULANE 5

Set 3

21-25

Longest run 4 CSFULLTULANE 5

Bars above the line = Tulane leads, below = Cal St. Fullerton leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Cal St. Fullerton

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	39%7/18	17%1/6
2	55%6/11	42%5/12
3	67%6/9	25%2/8
4	29%5/17	45%5/11
5	42%5/12	38%3/8
6	57%4/7	38%3/8
All	45%33/74	36%19/53

Tulane

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	64%7/11	57%8/14
2	70%7/10	46%6/13
3	55%6/11	45%5/11
4	56%5/9	58%7/12
5	63%5/8	69%11/16
6	100%4/4	50%4/8
All	64%34/53	55%41/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

127 rallies

Rally log

#	CSFULL-TULANE	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	TULANE	TULANE	Kill	Madison McLin		+0.2
2	1-1	TULANE	CSFULL	Kill	Bella Risling	set Sibley Oster	+0.2
3	2-1	CSFULL	CSFULL	Ace	CSFULL server	aced Team	+0.3
4	2-2	CSFULL	TULANE	Kill	Avery Burks	set Charlee Solomon	+0.2
5	3-2	TULANE	CSFULL	Kill	Sofia Shine	set Kaieva Christensen	+0.2
6	3-3	CSFULL	TULANE×3	Kill	Madison McLin	set Charlee Solomon	+0.2
7	3-4	TULANE	TULANE×3	Attack err	Hannah Hass	blk Chloe List, Riley Tucker	+0.2
8	3-5	TULANE	TULANE×3	Kill	Amelia Haggins	set Sibley Oster	+0.2
9	4-5	TULANE	CSFULL	Kill	Hannah Hass	set Sibley Oster	+0.2
10	4-6	CSFULL	TULANE	Kill	Chloe List	set Charlee Solomon	+0.1
11	4-7	TULANE	TULANE	Kill	Riley Tucker	set Charlee Solomon	+0.2
12	5-7	TULANE	CSFULL	Kill	Marisa Nakata	set Sibley Oster	+0.1
13	5-8	CSFULL	TULANE×3	Kill	Chloe List	set Charlee Solomon	+0.1
14	5-9	TULANE	TULANE×3	Attack err	Sibley Oster	blk Avery Burks	+0.1
15	5-10	TULANE	TULANE×3	Attack err	Kaia Herweg		+0.1
16	6-10	TULANE	CSFULL	Kill	Marisa Nakata	set Sibley Oster	+0.1
17	7-10	CSFULL	CSFULL	Attack err	Avery Burks		+0.1
18	7-11	CSFULL	TULANE	Kill	Riley Tucker	set Charlee Solomon	+0.1
19	8-11	TULANE	CSFULL	Kill	Emilia Graham	set Dayla Ortiz	+0.1
20	8-12	CSFULL	TULANE×6	Attack err	Sofia Shine		+0.1
21	8-13	TULANE	TULANE×6	Attack err	Bella Risling		+0.1
22	8-14	TULANE	TULANE×6	Kill	Madison McLin	set Charlee Solomon	+0.1
23	8-15	TULANE	TULANE×6	Ace	TULANE server	aced Sofia Shine	+0.0
24	8-16	TULANE	TULANE×6	Kill	Amelia Haggins	set Charlee Solomon	+0.0
25	8-17	TULANE	TULANE×6	Attack err	Sofia Shine	blk Madison McLin, Amelia Haggins	+0.0
26	9-17	TULANE	CSFULL	Kill	Bella Risling	set Sibley Oster	+0.0
27	10-17	CSFULL	CSFULL	Kill	Hannah Hass	set Sibley Oster	+0.0
28	10-18	CSFULL	TULANE	Kill	Madison McLin	set Charlee Solomon	+0.0
29	11-18	TULANE	CSFULL	Kill	Hannah Hass	set Avery Burks	+0.0
30	11-19	CSFULL	TULANE	Attack err	Hannah Hass		+0.0
31	11-20	TULANE	TULANE	Kill	Amelia Haggins	set Makena Lim	+0.0
32	12-20	TULANE	CSFULL	Kill	Hannah Hass	set Sibley Oster	+0.0
33	13-20	CSFULL	CSFULL	Attack err	Chloe List	blk Hannah Hass, Sibley Oster	+0.0
34	13-21	CSFULL	TULANE×5	Kill	Chloe List	set Charlee Solomon	+0.0
35	13-22	TULANE	TULANE×5	Attack err	Marisa Nakata	blk Riley Tucker, Charlee Solomon	+0.0
36	13-23	TULANE	TULANE×5	Attack err	Marisa Nakata		+0.0
37	13-24	TULANE	TULANE×5	Attack err	Hannah Hass		+0.0
38	13-25	TULANE	TULANE×5	Ace	TULANE server	aced Mia Feldhaus	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	CSFULL	TULANE	Kill	Madison McLin	set Charlee Solomon	+0.1
2	1-1	TULANE	CSFULL	Kill	Bella Risling	set Sibley Oster	+0.1
3	1-2	CSFULL	TULANE	Kill	Avery Burks	set Charlee Solomon	+0.1
4	2-2	TULANE	CSFULL	Kill	Bella Risling	set Sibley Oster	+0.1
5	3-2	CSFULL	CSFULL	Attack err	Amelia Haggins		+0.2
6	3-3	CSFULL	TULANE	Kill	Chloe List	set Makena Lim	+0.1
7	4-3	TULANE	CSFULL	Kill	Hannah Hass	set Sibley Oster	+0.1
8	5-3	CSFULL	CSFULL	Attack err	Chloe List	blk Hannah Hass	+0.2
9	5-4	CSFULL	TULANE×5	Kill	Riley Tucker	set Charlee Solomon	+0.1
10	5-5	TULANE	TULANE×5	Attack err	Hannah Hass	blk Chloe List, Riley Tucker	+0.2
11	5-6	TULANE	TULANE×5	Attack err	Marisa Nakata		+0.2
12	5-7	TULANE	TULANE×5	Kill	Chloe List	set Charlee Solomon	+0.1
13	5-8	TULANE	TULANE×5	Ace	TULANE server	aced Team	+0.1
14	6-8	TULANE	CSFULL	Kill	Marisa Nakata	set Sibley Oster	+0.1
15	6-9	CSFULL	TULANE	Kill	Riley Tucker	set Charlee Solomon	+0.1
16	7-9	TULANE	CSFULL	Kill	Marisa Nakata	set Sibley Oster	+0.1
17	7-10	CSFULL	TULANE	Kill	Charlee Solomon	set Makena Lim	+0.1
18	8-10	TULANE	CSFULL	Kill	Bella Risling	set Kaieva Christensen	+0.1
19	8-11	CSFULL	TULANE	Kill	Avery Burks	set Charlee Solomon	+0.1
20	8-12	TULANE	TULANE	Attack err	Zariah Crosby		+0.1
21	9-12	TULANE	CSFULL×3	Kill	Bella Risling	set Sibley Oster	+0.1
22	10-12	CSFULL	CSFULL×3	Kill	Sofia Shine	set Sibley Oster	+0.1
23	11-12	CSFULL	CSFULL×3	Kill	Bella Risling	set Sibley Oster	+0.2
24	11-13	CSFULL	TULANE	Kill	Charlee Solomon	set Avery Burks	+0.1
25	12-13	TULANE	CSFULL	Kill	Bella Risling	set Sibley Oster	+0.1
26	12-14	CSFULL	TULANE	Kill	Avery Burks	set Makena Lim	+0.1
27	13-14	TULANE	CSFULL	Kill	Sofia Shine	set Sibley Oster	+0.2
28	13-15	CSFULL	TULANE	Attack err	Sibley Oster	blk Chloe List	+0.1
29	13-16	TULANE	TULANE	Kill	Riley Tucker	set Charlee Solomon	+0.2
30	14-16	TULANE	CSFULL	Kill	Marisa Nakata	set Sibley Oster	+0.1
31	14-17	CSFULL	TULANE	Attack err	Marisa Nakata		+0.1
32	14-18	TULANE	TULANE	Attack err	Marisa Nakata	blk Riley Tucker, Charlee Solomon	+0.1
33	15-18	TULANE	CSFULL	Attack err	Riley Tucker	blk Zariah Crosby	+0.1
34	15-19	CSFULL	TULANE	Serve err	CSFULL server		+0.1
35	16-19	TULANE	CSFULL	Serve err	TULANE server		+0.1
36	17-19	CSFULL	CSFULL	Kill	Zariah Crosby	set Sibley Oster	+0.2
37	17-20	CSFULL	TULANE×3	Kill	Avery Burks	set Charlee Solomon	+0.1
38	17-21	TULANE	TULANE×3	Attack err	Bella Risling	blk Avery Burks	+0.1
39	17-22	TULANE	TULANE×3	Kill	Madison McLin	set Charlee Solomon	+0.1
40	18-22	TULANE	CSFULL	Serve err	TULANE server		+0.0
41	18-23	CSFULL	TULANE×3	Kill	Madison McLin	set Charlee Solomon	+0.0
42	18-24	TULANE	TULANE×3	Kill	Chloe List	set Charlee Solomon	+0.0
43	18-25	TULANE	TULANE×3	Bad set	Sibley Oster		+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	TULANE	TULANE	Attack err	Sofia Shine		+0.1
2	1-1	TULANE	CSFULL	Attack err	Ziya Sista		+0.0
3	1-2	CSFULL	TULANE×4	Attack err	Sofia Shine		+0.0
4	1-3	TULANE	TULANE×4	Kill	Chloe List	set Charlee Solomon	+0.0
5	1-4	TULANE	TULANE×4	Attack err	Bella Risling		+0.0
6	1-5	TULANE	TULANE×4	Attack err	Hannah Hass	blk Ziya Sista	+0.0
7	2-5	TULANE	CSFULL	Kill	Bella Risling	set Sibley Oster	+0.0
8	3-5	CSFULL	CSFULL	Attack err	Ziya Sista		+0.0
9	3-6	CSFULL	TULANE	Kill	Chloe List	set Charlee Solomon	+0.0
10	4-6	TULANE	CSFULL×3	Kill	Sofia Shine	set Sibley Oster	+0.0
11	5-6	CSFULL	CSFULL×3	Attack err	Riley Tucker		+0.1
12	6-6	CSFULL	CSFULL×3	Kill	Marisa Nakata	set Kaieva Christensen	+0.1
13	6-7	CSFULL	TULANE×3	Attack err	Hannah Hass		+0.0
14	6-8	TULANE	TULANE×3	Attack err	Marisa Nakata		+0.1
15	6-9	TULANE	TULANE×3	Attack err	Hannah Hass		+0.0
16	7-9	TULANE	CSFULL	Attack err	Avery Burks		+0.0
17	7-10	CSFULL	TULANE	Serve err	CSFULL server		+0.0
18	8-10	TULANE	CSFULL	Kill	Marisa Nakata	set Sibley Oster	+0.0
19	9-10	CSFULL	CSFULL	Kill	Marisa Nakata	set Sibley Oster	+0.1
20	9-11	CSFULL	TULANE×3	Kill	Charlee Solomon		+0.0
21	9-12	TULANE	TULANE×3	Kill	Avery Burks	set Charlee Solomon	+0.1
22	9-13	TULANE	TULANE×3	Attack err	Bella Risling		+0.0
23	10-13	TULANE	CSFULL	Kill	Marisa Nakata	set Sibley Oster	+0.0
24	10-14	CSFULL	TULANE	Kill	Charlee Solomon	set Dayla Ortiz	+0.0
25	10-15	TULANE	TULANE	Attack err	Bella Risling		+0.0
26	11-15	TULANE	CSFULL	Kill	Marisa Nakata	set Sibley Oster	+0.0
27	12-15	CSFULL	CSFULL	Kill	Hannah Hass	set Sibley Oster	+0.0
28	12-16	CSFULL	TULANE	Serve err	CSFULL server		+0.0
29	13-16	TULANE	CSFULL	Kill	Bella Risling	set Sibley Oster	+0.0
30	13-17	CSFULL	TULANE	Kill	Ziya Sista	set Charlee Solomon	+0.0
31	14-17	TULANE	CSFULL	Attack err	Amelia Haggins	blk Sofia Shine, Hannah Hass	+0.0
32	15-17	CSFULL	CSFULL	Attack err	Chloe List		+0.1
33	15-18	CSFULL	TULANE	Kill	Chloe List	set Charlee Solomon	+0.1
34	16-18	TULANE	CSFULL×4	Serve err	TULANE server		+0.1
35	17-18	CSFULL	CSFULL×4	Kill	Zariah Crosby		+0.1
36	18-18	CSFULL	CSFULL×4	Attack err	Chloe List		+0.2
37	19-18	CSFULL	CSFULL×4	Attack err	Chloe List	blk Sibley Oster, Zariah Crosby	+0.2
38	19-19	CSFULL	TULANE×5	Kill	Chloe List	set Charlee Solomon	+0.1
39	19-20	TULANE	TULANE×5	Attack err	Kaia Herweg		+0.2
40	19-21	TULANE	TULANE×5	Kill	Avery Burks	set Charlee Solomon	+0.1
41	19-22	TULANE	TULANE×5	Kill	Charlee Solomon	set Makena Lim	+0.1
42	19-23	TULANE	TULANE×5	Kill	Avery Burks	set Charlee Solomon	+0.1
43	20-23	TULANE	CSFULL	Serve err	TULANE server		+0.0
44	21-23	CSFULL	CSFULL	Ace	CSFULL server	aced Makena Lim	+0.1
45	21-24	CSFULL	TULANE	Kill	Avery Burks	set Charlee Solomon	+0.1
46	21-25	TULANE	TULANE	Ace	TULANE server	aced Kaia Herweg	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Cal St. Fullerton first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.