FinalSun, Aug 30, 2026

AwayPAC-12

0:3

HomeMAC

Bowling Green def. Fresno St. 3–0

(25-23, 25-13, 25-20)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
FRESNO	23	13	20	0
BGSU	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

BGSU above 50 · FRESNO below

Biggest swing: 3.2% to Bowling Green — set 1, FRESNO 23-25 BGSU. Kill by Anastasija Bozic (set by Amanda Otten). BGSU win probability 91% → 94%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

FRESNO 11.2%88.8% BGSU

Fresno St. wins

3-0

1.5%

3-1

3.4%

3-2

6.2%

Bowling Green wins

3-0

42.5%

3-1

31.6%

3-2

14.7%

FRESNO break %: 38.3% vs this opp
BGSU break %: 47.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Anastasija BozicKill+3.2%
Kill by Anastasija Bozic (set by Amanda Otten)
Set 1 · FRESNO 23-25 BGSU · BGSU 91% → 94%
02
Jenna LegaultKill+2.5%
Kill by Jenna Legault (set by Olivia Lombardi)
Set 1 · FRESNO 16-14 BGSU · FRESNO 15% → 17%
03
Avery HobsonKill+2.4%
Kill by Avery Hobson (set by Sydnie Hernandez)
Set 1 · FRESNO 17-17 BGSU · BGSU 84% → 86%
04
Cecily WaynarKill+2.3%
Kill by Cecily Waynar (set by Amanda Otten)
Set 1 · FRESNO 17-18 BGSU · BGSU 86% → 89%
05
Anastasija BozicAttack error+2.2%
Attack error by Anastasija Bozic
Set 1 · FRESNO 15-14 BGSU · FRESNO 13% → 15%
06
Jenna LegaultKill+2.0%
Kill by Jenna Legault (set by Olivia Lombardi)
Set 1 · FRESNO 17-15 BGSU · FRESNO 16% → 18%
07
BGSU serverAce+2.0%
Bowling Green ace on Jenna Legault
Set 1 · FRESNO 17-19 BGSU · BGSU 89% → 91%
08
Anastasija BozicAttack error+1.9%
Attack error by Anastasija Bozic
Set 1 · FRESNO 23-24 BGSU · FRESNO 7% → 9%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Fresno St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
23Jenna LegaultOH	3	10	4	27	.222	0	1	4	3	1	0	2	1	12
21Kiley DeveryOPP	3	6	1	16	.313	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	7
1Gabby LombardiS	3	0	0	0	–	12	1	3	2	0	0	0	0	1
14Andee MayMB	2	1	0	4	.250	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	1	2
7Brooklyn WashingtonMB	2	0	2	4	-.500	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	1
10Alivia SchneiderOH	1	1	1	5	.000	0	0	0	2	1	0	1	0.5	1.5
2Isabel SmartOPP	3	2	5	15	-.200	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	2.5	4.5
3Anna BolichS	3	0	0	1	.000	9	1	2	5	0	0	0	0	1
12Olivia LombardiL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	3	0	1	6	0	0	0	0	0
8Peyton BitterOH	2	2	2	9	.000	1	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	2
9Aryam MunozL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
17Mya SellersMB	1	3	1	5	.400	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
16Addison WilliamsMB	1	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	2.5	2.5
Team totals		25	16	88	.102	25	3	10	26	3	2	16	10	56

Bowling Greenhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
9Avery HobsonOH	3	13	7	30	.200	0	0	1	1	0	0	3	1.5	14.5
23Anastasija BozicOH	3	11	4	24	.292	1	0	1	5	1	0	0	0	11
12Karli MolnauOH	3	8	4	16	.250	2	0	0	2	0	0	3	1.5	9.5
6Cecily WaynarOPP	3	6	2	9	.444	0	0	3	0	0	0	5	2.5	8.5
11Amanda OttenS	3	6	1	10	.500	17	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
18Helen WilfordMB	3	2	1	6	.167	0	0	1	3	0	1	2	2	4
1Sydnie HernandezDS	3	0	0	0	–	5	2	0	9	0	0	0	0	2
3Avery AndersDS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	0	11	2	0	0	0	1
19Alivia BrownDS	3	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0
2Molly BeattyS	3	0	0	1	.000	13	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	0
17Katherine EignerDS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		46	19	97	.278	39	3	7	38	3	1	14	8	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 FRESNO · BGSU 7

Set 1

23-25

Longest run 4 FRESNOBGSU 4

Set 2

13-25

Longest run 2 FRESNOBGSU 7

Set 3

20-25

Longest run 3 FRESNOBGSU 4

Bars above the line = Bowling Green leads, below = Fresno St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Fresno St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	62%8/13	20%2/10
2	67%8/12	0%0/8
3	70%7/10	43%6/14
4	46%6/13	22%2/9
5	33%6/18	33%3/9
6	86%6/7	25%2/8
All	56%41/73	26%15/58

Bowling Green

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	89%8/9	25%2/8
2	100%8/8	27%3/11
3	57%8/14	43%6/14
4	78%7/9	22%2/9
5	67%6/9	68%13/19
6	67%6/9	50%6/12
All	74%43/58	44%32/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

131 rallies

Rally log

#	FRESNO-BGSU	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	FRESNO	BGSU	Kill	Avery Hobson	set Karli Molnau	+0.8
2	1-1	BGSU	FRESNO	Serve err	BGSU server		+0.9
3	1-2	FRESNO	BGSU	Serve err	FRESNO server		+0.8
4	2-2	BGSU	FRESNO×4	Kill	Jenna Legault	set Gabby Lombardi	+0.9
5	3-2	FRESNO	FRESNO×4	Attack err	Avery Hobson		+1.4
6	4-2	FRESNO	FRESNO×4	Ace	FRESNO server	aced Avery Anders	+1.5
7	5-2	FRESNO	FRESNO×4	Attack err	Helen Wilford		+1.6
8	5-3	FRESNO	BGSU	Serve err	FRESNO server		+1.1
9	6-3	BGSU	FRESNO	Attack err	Avery Hobson		+1.3
10	7-3	FRESNO	FRESNO	Attack err	Avery Hobson	blk Isabel Smart, Andee May	+1.8
11	7-4	FRESNO	BGSU	Serve err	FRESNO server		+1.1
12	8-4	BGSU	FRESNO×3	Attack err	Amanda Otten		+1.4
13	9-4	FRESNO	FRESNO×3	Attack err	Cecily Waynar	blk Brooklyn Washington, Alivia Schneider	+1.8
14	10-4	FRESNO	FRESNO×3	Attack err	Avery Hobson	blk Isabel Smart	+1.7
15	10-5	FRESNO	BGSU×4	Kill	Anastasija Bozic	set Amanda Otten	+1.0
16	10-6	BGSU	BGSU×4	Kill	Karli Molnau	set Sydnie Hernandez	+1.5
17	10-7	BGSU	BGSU×4	Attack err	Alivia Schneider	blk Karli Molnau, Cecily Waynar	+1.6
18	10-8	BGSU	BGSU×4	Kill	Karli Molnau	set Molly Beatty	+1.7
19	11-8	BGSU	FRESNO	Kill	Isabel Smart	set Olivia Lombardi	+1.5
20	11-9	FRESNO	BGSU	Serve err	FRESNO server		+1.3
21	12-9	BGSU	FRESNO	Serve err	BGSU server		+1.6
22	12-10	FRESNO	BGSU	Kill	Karli Molnau	set Molly Beatty	+1.3
23	13-10	BGSU	FRESNO	Serve err	BGSU server		+1.7
24	13-11	FRESNO	BGSU×4	Kill	Anastasija Bozic	set Molly Beatty	+1.3
25	13-12	BGSU	BGSU×4	Kill	Amanda Otten	set Olivia Lombardi	+1.9
26	13-13	BGSU	BGSU×4	Kill	Amanda Otten	set Olivia Lombardi	+1.9
27	13-14	BGSU	BGSU×4	Ace	BGSU server	aced Alivia Schneider	+1.8
28	14-14	BGSU	FRESNO×3	Attack err	Avery Hobson		+1.4
29	15-14	FRESNO	FRESNO×3	Attack err	Anastasija Bozic		+2.2
30	16-14	FRESNO	FRESNO×3	Kill	Jenna Legault	set Olivia Lombardi	+2.5
31	16-15	FRESNO	BGSU	Kill	Anastasija Bozic	set Amanda Otten	+1.6
32	17-15	BGSU	FRESNO	Kill	Jenna Legault	set Olivia Lombardi	+2.0
33	17-16	FRESNO	BGSU×4	Serve err	FRESNO server		+1.7
34	17-17	BGSU	BGSU×4	Kill	Avery Hobson	set Sydnie Hernandez	+2.4
35	17-18	BGSU	BGSU×4	Kill	Cecily Waynar	set Amanda Otten	+2.3
36	17-19	BGSU	BGSU×4	Ace	BGSU server	aced Jenna Legault	+2.0
37	18-19	BGSU	FRESNO	Attack err	Avery Hobson	blk Isabel Smart, Andee May	+1.4
38	18-20	FRESNO	BGSU	Attack err	Isabel Smart	blk Cecily Waynar, Avery Hobson	+1.6
39	18-21	BGSU	BGSU	Attack err	Isabel Smart		+1.7
40	19-21	BGSU	FRESNO	Serve err	BGSU server		+1.0
41	19-22	FRESNO	BGSU	Kill	Karli Molnau	set Molly Beatty	+1.3
42	20-22	BGSU	FRESNO	Kill	Alivia Schneider	set Gabby Lombardi	+0.9
43	20-23	FRESNO	BGSU	Kill	Karli Molnau	set Molly Beatty	+1.3
44	21-23	BGSU	FRESNO	Kill	Kiley Devery	set Gabby Lombardi	+0.8
45	21-24	FRESNO	BGSU	Kill	Helen Wilford	set Molly Beatty	+1.4
46	22-24	BGSU	FRESNO	Kill	Kiley Devery	set Gabby Lombardi	+0.6
47	23-24	FRESNO	FRESNO	Attack err	Anastasija Bozic		+1.9
48	23-25	FRESNO	BGSU	Kill	Anastasija Bozic	set Amanda Otten	+3.2
Set 2
1	1-0	BGSU	FRESNO	Kill	Kiley Devery	set Gabby Lombardi	+0.7
2	1-1	FRESNO	BGSU	Kill	Cecily Waynar	set Amanda Otten	+0.6
3	2-1	BGSU	FRESNO	Serve err	BGSU server		+0.7
4	2-2	FRESNO	BGSU	Kill	Anastasija Bozic	set Amanda Otten	+0.6
5	3-2	BGSU	FRESNO	Kill	Andee May	set Anna Bolich	+0.7
6	3-3	FRESNO	BGSU	Kill	Amanda Otten	set Avery Anders	+0.6
7	3-4	BGSU	BGSU	Attack err	Jenna Legault		+0.8
8	4-4	BGSU	FRESNO	Kill	Jenna Legault	set Anna Bolich	+0.7
9	4-5	FRESNO	BGSU×7	Kill	Avery Hobson	set Amanda Otten	+0.6
10	4-6	BGSU	BGSU×7	Kill	Cecily Waynar		+0.8
11	4-7	BGSU	BGSU×7	Attack err	Isabel Smart		+0.7
12	4-8	BGSU	BGSU×7	Attack err	Peyton Bitter	blk Amanda Otten, Cecily Waynar	+0.5
13	4-9	BGSU	BGSU×7	Kill	Avery Hobson	set Amanda Otten	+0.4
14	4-10	BGSU	BGSU×7	Kill	Avery Hobson	set Amanda Otten	+0.3
15	4-11	BGSU	BGSU×7	Attack err	Isabel Smart	blk Cecily Waynar, Avery Hobson	+0.2
16	5-11	BGSU	FRESNO	Serve err	BGSU server		+0.1
17	5-12	FRESNO	BGSU	Kill	Avery Hobson	set Sydnie Hernandez	+0.2
18	6-12	BGSU	FRESNO	Attack err	Avery Hobson	blk Kiley Devery, Brooklyn Washington	+0.1
19	7-12	FRESNO	FRESNO	Attack err	Karli Molnau		+0.3
20	7-13	FRESNO	BGSU	Kill	Cecily Waynar	set Molly Beatty	+0.2
21	7-14	BGSU	BGSU	Attack err	Kiley Devery		+0.2
22	8-14	BGSU	FRESNO	Kill	Kiley Devery	set Gabby Lombardi	+0.1
23	8-15	FRESNO	BGSU	Kill	Anastasija Bozic	set Karli Molnau	+0.2
24	9-15	BGSU	FRESNO	Kill	Kiley Devery	set Gabby Lombardi	+0.1
25	9-16	FRESNO	BGSU×3	Kill	Karli Molnau	set Molly Beatty	+0.2
26	9-17	BGSU	BGSU×3	Kill	Helen Wilford	set Amanda Otten	+0.1
27	9-18	BGSU	BGSU×3	Attack err	Jenna Legault		+0.1
28	10-18	BGSU	FRESNO	Kill	Jenna Legault	set Anna Bolich	+0.0
29	10-19	FRESNO	BGSU	Kill	Anastasija Bozic	set Amanda Otten	+0.0
30	11-19	BGSU	FRESNO	Kill	Isabel Smart	set Anna Bolich	+0.0
31	11-20	FRESNO	BGSU	Kill	Avery Hobson	set Amanda Otten	+0.0
32	11-21	BGSU	BGSU	Attack err	Brooklyn Washington		+0.0
33	12-21	BGSU	FRESNO	Kill	Peyton Bitter	set Anna Bolich	+0.0
34	12-22	FRESNO	BGSU	Serve err	FRESNO server		+0.0
35	12-23	BGSU	BGSU	Attack err	Peyton Bitter		+0.0
36	13-23	BGSU	FRESNO	Kill	Jenna Legault	set Gabby Lombardi	+0.0
37	13-24	FRESNO	BGSU	Kill	Avery Hobson	set Molly Beatty	+0.0
38	13-25	BGSU	BGSU	Attack err	Brooklyn Washington		+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	FRESNO	BGSU×3	Kill	Karli Molnau	set Sydnie Hernandez	+0.3
2	0-2	BGSU	BGSU×3	Attack err	Jenna Legault	blk Helen Wilford, Karli Molnau	+0.3
3	0-3	BGSU	BGSU×3	Ace	BGSU server	aced Peyton Bitter	+0.3
4	1-3	BGSU	FRESNO	Kill	Jenna Legault	set Gabby Lombardi	+0.2
5	1-4	FRESNO	BGSU	Kill	Anastasija Bozic	set Amanda Otten	+0.2
6	2-4	BGSU	FRESNO	Attack err	Jenna Legault		+0.2
7	2-5	FRESNO	BGSU	Kill	Amanda Otten	set Sydnie Hernandez	+0.2
8	2-6	BGSU	BGSU	Kill	Amanda Otten		+0.3
9	3-6	BGSU	FRESNO	Kill	Mya Sellers	set Anna Bolich	+0.2
10	3-7	FRESNO	BGSU	Kill	Avery Hobson	set Amanda Otten	+0.2
11	4-7	BGSU	FRESNO	Kill	Mya Sellers	set Anna Bolich	+0.2
12	4-8	FRESNO	BGSU	Kill	Avery Hobson	set Anastasija Bozic	+0.2
13	4-9	BGSU	BGSU	Attack err	Isabel Smart	blk Cecily Waynar, Avery Hobson	+0.2
14	5-9	BGSU	FRESNO	Kill	Peyton Bitter	set Anna Bolich	+0.1
15	5-10	FRESNO	BGSU	Serve err	FRESNO server		+0.2
16	6-10	BGSU	FRESNO	Kill	Jenna Legault	set Gabby Lombardi	+0.1
17	6-11	FRESNO	BGSU	Kill	Cecily Waynar	set Molly Beatty	+0.2
18	7-11	BGSU	FRESNO	Attack err	Karli Molnau	blk Addison Williams, Jenna Legault	+0.1
19	7-12	FRESNO	BGSU	Kill	Anastasija Bozic	set Molly Beatty	+0.2
20	7-13	BGSU	BGSU	Attack err	Mya Sellers	blk Helen Wilford	+0.2
21	8-13	BGSU	FRESNO	Kill	Jenna Legault	set Peyton Bitter	+0.1
22	8-14	FRESNO	BGSU	Kill	Anastasija Bozic	set Amanda Otten	+0.1
23	9-14	BGSU	FRESNO	Serve err	BGSU server		+0.1
24	9-15	FRESNO	BGSU×4	Serve err	FRESNO server		+0.1
25	9-16	BGSU	BGSU×4	Kill	Amanda Otten	set Anna Bolich	+0.1
26	9-17	BGSU	BGSU×4	Kill	Avery Hobson	set Amanda Otten	+0.1
27	9-18	BGSU	BGSU×4	Kill	Avery Hobson	set Amanda Otten	+0.0
28	10-18	BGSU	FRESNO	Attack err	Avery Hobson	blk Isabel Smart, Mya Sellers	+0.0
29	11-18	FRESNO	FRESNO	Attack err	Cecily Waynar		+0.0
30	11-19	FRESNO	BGSU	Kill	Cecily Waynar	set Amanda Otten	+0.0
31	12-19	BGSU	FRESNO×3	Attack err	Anastasija Bozic		+0.0
32	13-19	FRESNO	FRESNO×3	Ace	FRESNO server	aced Anastasija Bozic	+0.1
33	14-19	FRESNO	FRESNO×3	Attack err	Karli Molnau	blk Addison Williams	+0.1
34	14-20	FRESNO	BGSU	Kill	Avery Hobson	set Molly Beatty	+0.1
35	15-20	BGSU	FRESNO	Kill	Kiley Devery	set Gabby Lombardi	+0.1
36	16-20	FRESNO	FRESNO	Attack err	Anastasija Bozic	blk Kiley Devery, Addison Williams	+0.2
37	16-21	FRESNO	BGSU	Kill	Karli Molnau	set Molly Beatty	+0.2
38	16-22	BGSU	BGSU	Attack err	Jenna Legault	blk Helen Wilford, Karli Molnau	+0.1
39	17-22	BGSU	FRESNO	Attack err	Karli Molnau	blk Jenna Legault, Addison Williams	+0.0
40	17-23	FRESNO	BGSU	Kill	Anastasija Bozic	set Molly Beatty	+0.1
41	18-23	BGSU	FRESNO	Kill	Jenna Legault	set Gabby Lombardi	+0.0
42	18-24	FRESNO	BGSU	Serve err	FRESNO server		+0.0
43	19-24	BGSU	FRESNO	Kill	Mya Sellers	set Anna Bolich	+0.0
44	20-24	FRESNO	FRESNO	Ace	FRESNO server	aced Avery Anders	+0.0
45	20-25	FRESNO	BGSU	Serve err	FRESNO server		+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Fresno St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.