FinalSat, Sep 12, 2026

AwayAMERICAN

0:3

HomeSEC

Missouri def. Wichita St. 3–0

(25-19, 25-13, 25-18)

Set	1*	2*	3	Sets
WICHST	19	13	18	0
MIZZOU	25	25	25	3

* Set 1: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.
* Set 2: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.

RallyIQ model

Win probability

MIZZOU above 50 · WICHST below

Biggest swing: 1.5% to Wichita St. — set 1, WICHST 13-13 MIZZOU. Wichita St. ace on Ceylin Kuyan. MIZZOU win probability 91% → 90%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

WICHST 9.0%91.0% MIZZOU

Wichita St. wins

3-0

1.2%

3-1

2.7%

3-2

5.1%

Missouri wins

3-0

46.2%

3-1

31.5%

3-2

13.3%

WICHST break %: 37.8% vs this opp
MIZZOU break %: 48.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
WICHST serverAce+1.5%
Wichita St. ace on Ceylin Kuyan
Set 1 · WICHST 13-13 MIZZOU · WICHST 9% → 10%
02
Kimani JohnsonKill+1.4%
Kill by Kimani Johnson (set by Ainoah Cruz)
Set 1 · WICHST 14-16 MIZZOU · MIZZOU 91% → 92%
03
MIZZOU serverService error+1.3%
Missouri service error
Set 1 · WICHST 14-14 MIZZOU · WICHST 9% → 10%
04
McKenzie JonesAttack error+1.2%
Attack error by McKenzie Jones
Set 1 · WICHST 15-18 MIZZOU · MIZZOU 92% → 93%
05
Paige FelderKill+1.2%
Kill by Paige Felder (set by Piper Batie)
Set 1 · WICHST 14-15 MIZZOU · MIZZOU 90% → 91%
06
Maddie WilsonKill+1.2%
Kill by Maddie Wilson (set by Jordan Heatherly)
Set 1 · WICHST 11-12 MIZZOU · WICHST 8% → 9%
07
WICHST serverAce+1.1%
Wichita St. ace on Ainoah Cruz
Set 1 · WICHST 2-1 MIZZOU · WICHST 9% → 10%
08
WICHST serverService error+1.1%
Wichita St. service error
Set 1 · WICHST 13-14 MIZZOU · MIZZOU 90% → 91%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Wichita St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
14Maddie WilsonMB	3	7	2	11	.455	0	1	2	1	0	1	0.5	8.5
7Jenna CubbageOH	3	7	3	26	.154	0	0	2	7	2	0	0	7
3Olivia CoheeOH	3	6	2	12	.333	0	0	2	5	0	1	0.5	6.5
10Danielle MooreOPP	3	5	3	16	.125	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	5
16Jordan HeatherlyS	3	0	0	2	.000	20	0	0	7	0	0	0	0
13Sophia GilbertMB	2	1	1	6	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1
24McKenzie JonesOH	3	5	5	15	.000	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	5.5
12Grace HettL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	0	4	0	0	0	1
4Addie OethS	3	0	0	3	.000	9	0	1	2	0	0	0	0
23Gabi MaasL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	2	0	0	11	0	0	0	0
26Allie PaulsenMB	1	2	1	4	.250	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
22Brea MartinL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		33	17	96	.167	32	2	7	41	6	4	2	50

Missourihome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
40Grace O'ReillyOH	3	9	3	23	.261	0	1	1	3	0	0	2	1	11
15Paige FelderOH	3	9	0	23	.391	1	1	1	5	0	0	2	1	11
12Lauren LarkinMB	3	5	0	9	.556	0	0	0	0	0	2	3	3.5	8.5
11Eva SmithMB	3	3	0	4	.750	1	1	0	1	0	2	3	3.5	7.5
8Ceylin KuyanOH	3	5	1	10	.400	1	0	3	7	1	0	1	0.5	5.5
2Sierra DudleyS	3	0	0	2	.000	18	1	0	5	0	0	0	0	1
7Kimani JohnsonOH	3	7	1	17	.353	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	7.5
4Ainoah CruzDS	3	0	0	1	.000	6	2	2	13	1	0	0	0	2
13Piper BatieS	3	0	0	0	–	11	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	0
21Lydia StahleyOH	2	1	0	5	.200	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
22Millie BauerMB	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
3Maizy AgnelloOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
23Tia PhinezyMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		40	5	95	.368	38	6	8	40	2	4	12	10	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 WICHST · MIZZOU 6

Set 1*

19-25

Longest run 4 WICHSTMIZZOU 4

Set 2*

13-25

Longest run 4 WICHSTMIZZOU 6

Set 3

18-25

Longest run 2 WICHSTMIZZOU 4

Bars above the line = Missouri leads, below = Wichita St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Wichita St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	100%3/3	25%1/4
2	60%3/5	25%1/4
3	33%2/6	0%0/3
4	40%2/5	33%1/3
5	100%2/2	33%1/3
6	67%2/3	0%0/2
All	58%14/24	21%4/19

Missouri

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	75%3/4	33%1/3
2	75%3/4	0%0/3
3	100%3/3	40%2/5
4	67%2/3	67%4/6
5	67%2/3	60%3/5
6	100%2/2	0%0/2
All	79%15/19	42%10/24

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (1 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

125 rallies

Rally log

#	WICHST-MIZZOU	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	WICHST	MIZZOU	Kill	Grace O'Reilly	set Sierra Dudley	+0.7
2	1-1	MIZZOU	WICHST	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.8
3	2-1	WICHST	WICHST	Ace	WICHST server	aced Ainoah Cruz	+1.1
4	2-2	WICHST	MIZZOU	Bad set	Jordan Heatherly		+0.8
5	3-2	MIZZOU	WICHST	Kill	Danielle Moore	set Jordan Heatherly	+0.9
6	3-3	WICHST	MIZZOU	Kill	Paige Felder	set Sierra Dudley	+0.8
7	3-4	MIZZOU	MIZZOU	Attack err	Jenna Cubbage		+1.0
8	4-4	MIZZOU	WICHST	Bad set	Kimani Johnson		+0.8
9	4-5	WICHST	MIZZOU	Kill	Kimani Johnson	set Piper Batie	+0.8
10	5-5	MIZZOU	WICHST	Kill	McKenzie Jones	set Addie Oeth	+0.9
11	5-6	WICHST	MIZZOU×4	Kill	Ceylin Kuyan	set Piper Batie	+0.8
12	5-7	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×4	Kill	Kimani Johnson	set Piper Batie	+1.0
13	5-8	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×4	Kill	Kimani Johnson	set Paige Felder	+0.8
14	5-9	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×4	Kill	Ceylin Kuyan	set Piper Batie	+0.7
15	6-9	MIZZOU	WICHST	Kill	Olivia Cohee	set Addie Oeth	+0.5
16	6-10	WICHST	MIZZOU	Kill	Kimani Johnson	set Ainoah Cruz	+0.5
17	6-11	MIZZOU	MIZZOU	Kill	Lauren Larkin	set Sierra Dudley	+0.5
18	7-11	MIZZOU	WICHST	Kill	Olivia Cohee	set Gabi Maas	+0.4
19	7-12	WICHST	MIZZOU	Attack err	Olivia Cohee	blk Grace O'Reilly, Lauren Larkin	+0.4
20	8-12	MIZZOU	WICHST×4	Serve err	MIZZOU server		+0.4
21	9-12	WICHST	WICHST×4	Kill	Jenna Cubbage	set Jordan Heatherly	+0.7
22	10-12	WICHST	WICHST×4	Kill	Danielle Moore	set Jordan Heatherly	+0.9
23	11-12	WICHST	WICHST×4	Kill	Maddie Wilson	set Jordan Heatherly	+1.2
24	11-13	WICHST	MIZZOU	Attack err	Danielle Moore	blk Lauren Larkin, Paige Felder	+0.9
25	12-13	MIZZOU	WICHST	Kill	Maddie Wilson	set Jordan Heatherly	+0.9
26	13-13	WICHST	WICHST	Ace	WICHST server	aced Ceylin Kuyan	+1.5
27	13-14	WICHST	MIZZOU	Serve err	WICHST server		+1.1
28	14-14	MIZZOU	WICHST	Serve err	MIZZOU server		+1.3
29	14-15	WICHST	MIZZOU	Kill	Paige Felder	set Piper Batie	+1.2
30	14-16	MIZZOU	MIZZOU	Kill	Kimani Johnson	set Ainoah Cruz	+1.4
31	15-16	MIZZOU	WICHST	Serve err	MIZZOU server		+1.1
32	15-17	WICHST	MIZZOU×3	Kill	Eva Smith	set Piper Batie	+1.1
33	15-18	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×3	Attack err	McKenzie Jones		+1.2
34	15-19	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×3	Ace	MIZZOU server	aced Jenna Cubbage	+0.9
35	16-19	MIZZOU	WICHST	Kill	Olivia Cohee	set Addie Oeth	+0.5
36	16-20	WICHST	MIZZOU	Kill	Ceylin Kuyan	set Piper Batie	+0.7
37	17-20	MIZZOU	WICHST	Attack err	Grace O'Reilly	blk Olivia Cohee, Maddie Wilson	+0.5
38	17-21	WICHST	MIZZOU×3	Kill	Lauren Larkin	set Sierra Dudley	+0.7
39	17-22	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×3	Kill	Paige Felder	set Sierra Dudley	+0.5
40	17-23	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×3	Bad set	Jordan Heatherly		+0.2
41	18-23	MIZZOU	WICHST	Kill	Olivia Cohee	set Jordan Heatherly	+0.1
42	18-24	WICHST	MIZZOU	Kill	Paige Felder	set Sierra Dudley	+0.1
43	19-24	MIZZOU	WICHST	Kill	Jenna Cubbage	set Grace Hett	+0.0
44	19-25	WICHST	MIZZOU	Kill	Paige Felder	set Sierra Dudley	+0.1
Set 2
1	0-1	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×5	Attack err	Ceylin Kuyan		+0.6
2	0-2	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×5	Attack err	Danielle Moore		+0.5
3	0-3	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×5	Kill	Grace O'Reilly	set Sierra Dudley	+0.5
4	0-4	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×5	Attack err	Maddie Wilson	blk Lauren Larkin	+0.4
5	0-5	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×5	Kill	Grace O'Reilly	set Sierra Dudley	+0.3
6	1-5	MIZZOU	WICHST	Kill	Maddie Wilson	set Jordan Heatherly	+0.2
7	2-5	WICHST	WICHST	Kill	Jenna Cubbage	set Jordan Heatherly	+0.4
8	2-6	WICHST	MIZZOU	Kill	Lauren Larkin	set Sierra Dudley	+0.3
9	3-6	MIZZOU	WICHST	Serve err	MIZZOU server		+0.3
10	4-6	WICHST	WICHST	Kill	Jenna Cubbage	set Addie Oeth	+0.5
11	4-7	WICHST	MIZZOU×4	Kill	Grace O'Reilly	set Sierra Dudley	+0.4
12	4-8	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×4	Kill	Paige Felder	set Ainoah Cruz	+0.4
13	4-9	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×4	Attack err	McKenzie Jones	blk Eva Smith, Grace O'Reilly	+0.3
14	4-10	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×4	Attack err	Sophia Gilbert	blk Eva Smith	+0.3
15	5-10	MIZZOU	WICHST	Serve err	MIZZOU server		+0.2
16	6-10	WICHST	WICHST	Attack err	Grace O'Reilly		+0.3
17	6-11	WICHST	MIZZOU	Attack err	McKenzie Jones	blk Eva Smith, Paige Felder	+0.3
18	6-12	MIZZOU	MIZZOU	Kill	Paige Felder	set Eva Smith	+0.3
19	7-12	MIZZOU	WICHST×4	Kill	Maddie Wilson	set Jordan Heatherly	+0.2
20	8-12	WICHST	WICHST×4	Attack err	Ceylin Kuyan		+0.3
21	9-12	WICHST	WICHST×4	Kill	Olivia Cohee	set Jordan Heatherly	+0.4
22	10-12	WICHST	WICHST×4	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.6
23	10-13	WICHST	MIZZOU×5	Kill	Kimani Johnson	set Piper Batie	+0.5
24	10-14	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×5	Attack err	Danielle Moore	blk Ceylin Kuyan, Lauren Larkin	+0.5
25	10-15	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×5	Ace	MIZZOU server	aced Team	+0.4
26	10-16	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×5	Attack err	Jenna Cubbage		+0.3
27	10-17	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×5	Kill	Grace O'Reilly	set Sierra Dudley	+0.2
28	11-17	MIZZOU	WICHST	Kill	Danielle Moore	set Jordan Heatherly	+0.1
29	11-18	WICHST	MIZZOU	Serve err	WICHST server		+0.1
30	12-18	MIZZOU	WICHST	Kill	Sophia Gilbert	set Jordan Heatherly	+0.1
31	12-19	WICHST	MIZZOU×6	Kill	Grace O'Reilly	set Ainoah Cruz	+0.1
32	12-20	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×6	Ace	MIZZOU server	aced Jenna Cubbage	+0.1
33	12-21	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×6	Kill	Grace O'Reilly	set Sierra Dudley	+0.0
34	12-22	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×6	Kill	Eva Smith	set Sierra Dudley	+0.0
35	12-23	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×6	Attack err	McKenzie Jones	blk Eva Smith	+0.0
36	12-24	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×6	Ace	MIZZOU server	aced Team	+0.0
37	13-24	MIZZOU	WICHST	Serve err	MIZZOU server		+0.0
38	13-25	WICHST	MIZZOU	Serve err	WICHST server		+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	WICHST	MIZZOU	Serve err	WICHST server		+0.2
2	1-1	MIZZOU	WICHST	Kill	Olivia Cohee	set Jordan Heatherly	+0.2
3	1-2	WICHST	MIZZOU	Kill	Lauren Larkin	set Sierra Dudley	+0.2
4	2-2	MIZZOU	WICHST	Kill	Allie Paulsen	set Jordan Heatherly	+0.3
5	2-3	WICHST	MIZZOU×4	Attack err	Allie Paulsen		+0.2
6	2-4	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×4	Kill	Eva Smith	set Olivia Cohee	+0.3
7	2-5	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×4	Ace	MIZZOU server	aced Team	+0.2
8	2-6	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×4	Kill	Paige Felder	set Ceylin Kuyan	+0.2
9	3-6	MIZZOU	WICHST	Serve err	MIZZOU server		+0.1
10	3-7	WICHST	MIZZOU×3	Serve err	WICHST server		+0.1
11	3-8	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×3	Kill	Kimani Johnson		+0.2
12	3-9	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×3	Ace	MIZZOU server	aced Team	+0.1
13	4-9	MIZZOU	WICHST	Kill	Danielle Moore	set Addie Oeth	+0.1
14	5-9	WICHST	WICHST	Kill	Maddie Wilson	set Addie Oeth	+0.1
15	5-10	WICHST	MIZZOU	Kill	Ceylin Kuyan	set Piper Batie	+0.1
16	6-10	MIZZOU	WICHST	Kill	Jenna Cubbage	set Addie Oeth	+0.1
17	6-11	WICHST	MIZZOU	Kill	Ceylin Kuyan	set Piper Batie	+0.1
18	7-11	MIZZOU	WICHST	Kill	Jenna Cubbage	set Jordan Heatherly	+0.1
19	7-12	WICHST	MIZZOU	Attack err	Olivia Cohee		+0.1
20	8-12	MIZZOU	WICHST	Kill	McKenzie Jones	set Jordan Heatherly	+0.1
21	8-13	WICHST	MIZZOU	Kill	Lauren Larkin	set Sierra Dudley	+0.1
22	8-14	MIZZOU	MIZZOU	Attack err	McKenzie Jones		+0.1
23	9-14	MIZZOU	WICHST	Attack err	Grace O'Reilly	blk McKenzie Jones, Allie Paulsen	+0.1
24	9-15	WICHST	MIZZOU	Serve err	WICHST server		+0.1
25	9-16	MIZZOU	MIZZOU	Kill	Paige Felder	set Ainoah Cruz	+0.1
26	10-16	MIZZOU	WICHST	Attack err	Kimani Johnson		+0.0
27	11-16	WICHST	WICHST	Kill	Jenna Cubbage	set Addie Oeth	+0.1
28	11-17	WICHST	MIZZOU	Serve err	WICHST server		+0.1
29	11-18	MIZZOU	MIZZOU	Attack err	Jenna Cubbage	blk Eva Smith, Kimani Johnson	+0.1
30	12-18	MIZZOU	WICHST	Kill	Allie Paulsen	set Addie Oeth	+0.0
31	12-19	WICHST	MIZZOU	Bad set	Maddie Wilson		+0.1
32	13-19	MIZZOU	WICHST	Kill	Maddie Wilson	set Addie Oeth	+0.0
33	13-20	WICHST	MIZZOU	Kill	Millie Bauer	set Piper Batie	+0.0
34	13-21	MIZZOU	MIZZOU	Kill	Grace O'Reilly	set Sierra Dudley	+0.0
35	14-21	MIZZOU	WICHST	Kill	McKenzie Jones	set Jordan Heatherly	+0.0
36	15-21	WICHST	WICHST	Kill	McKenzie Jones	set Gabi Maas	+0.0
37	15-22	WICHST	MIZZOU	Serve err	WICHST server		+0.0
38	16-22	MIZZOU	WICHST	Serve err	MIZZOU server		+0.0
39	17-22	WICHST	WICHST	Bad set	Sierra Dudley		+0.0
40	17-23	WICHST	MIZZOU	Bad set	McKenzie Jones		+0.1
41	17-24	MIZZOU	MIZZOU	Kill	Grace O'Reilly	set Ainoah Cruz	+0.0
42	18-24	MIZZOU	WICHST	Kill	McKenzie Jones	set Jordan Heatherly	+0.0
43	18-25	WICHST	MIZZOU	Kill	Lydia Stahley	set Sierra Dudley	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Wichita St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.