Mississippi State vs Missouri Volleyball: Missouri Wins 3-0

FinalWed, Oct 14, 2026SECN

0:3

RallyIQ pre-match: Missouri 50.3% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 14, 5:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Missouri beat visiting Mississippi St. 3-0 (25-13, 25-21, 25-23) on Wed, Oct 14, 2026. Missouri's Paige Felder led with 14 kills, and Ainoah Cruz added 16 digs.

Data through Nov 3, 4:00 PM CT · final Oct 14

Set	1	2	3	Sets
MISSST	13	21	23	0
MIZZOU	25	25	25	3

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Paige Felder needed just 3 sets for 14 kills. Missouri swept Mississippi St.

Win probability never moved more than 6.8 points on one rally; Mississippi St. topped out at 50% in Set 1. Missouri went in as RallyIQ's 50% pick.

Mississippi St.Missouri

Break %+15.1 pts
35.650.7
On serve: 37/73 against 21/59 (Mississippi St. sideout 49.3%).
Hitting+.201
.152.353
47 K / 11 E against 33 K / 16 E.
Longest run+-1
65
Missouri scored 5 straight in the third set to open the set 5–0. The set finished 25–23.

Missouri above 50Mississippi St. belowMax swing 6.8%

Mississippi St.Missouri

Aces: Mississippi St. 5·Missouri 2
Serve err: Mississippi St. 8·Missouri 4
Blocks: Mississippi St. 1·Missouri 60 BS · 2 BA vs 1 BS · 10 BA
Digs: Mississippi St. 40·Missouri 48

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Missouri above 50 · Mississippi St. below

Biggest swing: 6.8% to Missouri — set 3, MISSST 23-25 MIZZOU. Kill by Kimani Johnson (set by Nina Mandovic). MIZZOU win probability 93% → 100%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MISSST 40.1%59.9% MIZZOU

Mississippi St. wins

3-0

8.8%

3-1

14.6%

3-2

16.7%

Missouri wins

3-0

17.2%

3-1

22.9%

3-2

19.9%

MISSST break %: 40.9% vs this opp
MIZZOU break %: 42.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Kimani JohnsonKill+6.8%
Kill by Kimani Johnson (set by Nina Mandovic)
Set 3 · MISSST 23-25 MIZZOU · MIZZOU 93% → 100%
02
Lindsey MangelsonAttack error+5.4%
Attack error by Lindsey Mangelson
Set 3 · MISSST 22-23 MIZZOU · MIZZOU 87% → 92%
03
Eva SmithKill+4.9%
Kill by Eva Smith (set by Nina Mandovic)
Set 3 · MISSST 23-24 MIZZOU · MIZZOU 88% → 93%
04
Lydia Stahley&Eva SmithBlock+4.4%
Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss stuffed by Lydia Stahley & Eva Smith
Set 3 · MISSST 22-22 MIZZOU · MIZZOU 82% → 87%
05
Nina MandovicKill+3.7%
Kill by Nina Mandovic (set by Lydia Stahley)
Set 3 · MISSST 23-23 MIZZOU · MISSST 8% → 12%
06
Paloma RoutaboulKill+3.6%
Kill by Paloma Routaboul (set by Erin Kline)
Set 3 · MISSST 20-19 MIZZOU · MISSST 12% → 16%
07
Claire MorrisseyAttack error+3.5%
Attack error by Claire Morrissey
Set 3 · MISSST 21-19 MIZZOU · MISSST 16% → 19%
08
Grace O'ReillyKill+3.4%
Kill by Grace O'Reilly (set by Zoey Matias)
Set 2 · MISSST 13-16 MIZZOU · MIZZOU 76% → 79%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Mississippi St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
1Bernardita AguilarOH	3	10	4	22	.273	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	11
10Paloma RoutaboulOH	3	10	3	27	.259	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10
22Gha'Naye Whitfield-MossMB	3	6	2	15	.267	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	6
3Lindsey MangelsonOH	3	5	6	35	-.029	0	0	0	6	0	1	0.5	5.5
20Noella ObiOPP	3	2	0	8	.250	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.5	2.5
24Cayley HansonS	3	0	0	0	–	10	2	3	3	0	0	0	2
8Mary NealDS	3	0	0	2	.000	1	1	0	5	1	0	0	1
5Erin KlineS	3	0	0	1	.000	17	0	0	3	0	0	0	0
4McKenna YatesDS	3	0	0	1	.000	1	0	1	19	0	0	0	0
17Kyla ScharfmanDS	2	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
15Marie JonesOH	1	0	1	1	-1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6Avery PowerDS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		33	16	112	.152	29	5	8	40	2	2	1	57

Missourihome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
15Paige FelderOH	3	14	3	29	.379	3	1	0	3	0	0	1	0.5	15.5
7Kimani JohnsonOH	3	10	2	18	.444	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	1	11
12Lauren LarkinMB	3	4	1	10	.300	0	0	1	3	0	0	3	1.5	5.5
11Eva SmithMB	3	3	1	7	.286	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	4
1Zoey MatiasL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	2	1	0	7	1	0	0	0	1
0Nina MandovicS	3	0	0	2	.000	22	0	0	7	0	0	0	0	0
21Lydia StahleyOH	3	7	1	13	.462	0	0	0	2	2	0	3	1.5	8.5
40Grace O'ReillyOH	3	6	2	18	.222	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
4Ainoah CruzDS	3	1	0	1	1.000	1	0	1	16	0	0	0	0	1
2Sierra DudleyS	3	1	0	1	1.000	15	0	2	6	0	0	0	0	1
18Claire MorrisseyOH	1	1	1	2	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		47	11	102	.353	43	2	4	48	5	1	10	6	75

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 MISSST · MIZZOU 5

Set 1

13-25

Longest run 3 MISSSTMIZZOU 4

Set 2

21-25

Longest run 4 MISSSTMIZZOU 3

Set 3

23-25

Longest run 6 MISSSTMIZZOU 5

Bars above the line = Missouri leads, below = Mississippi St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Mississippi St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	42%5/12	56%5/9
2	63%5/8	17%1/6
3	71%5/7	38%3/8
4	67%4/6	50%5/10
5	44%4/9	0%0/4
6	43%3/7	50%4/8
All	53%26/49	40%18/45

Missouri

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	45%5/11	60%6/10
2	83%5/6	58%7/12
3	63%5/8	17%1/6
4	50%4/8	33%2/6
5	57%4/7	33%2/6
6	80%4/5	56%5/9
All	60%27/45	47%23/49

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

132 rallies

#	MISSST-MIZZOU	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	MISSST	MIZZOU	Kill	Kimani Johnson	set Nina Mandovic	+1.8
2	1-1	MIZZOU	MISSST	Kill	Paloma Routaboul	set Cayley Hanson	+1.8
3	1-2	MISSST	MIZZOU×3	Kill	Paige Felder	set Sierra Dudley	+1.9
4	1-3		MIZZOU	NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+2.6
5	1-4	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×3	Ace	Paige Felder		+2.5
6	2-4	MIZZOU	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	+1.7
7	3-4	MISSST	MISSST	Kill	Paloma Routaboul	set McKenna Yates	+2.5
8	3-5	MISSST	MIZZOU×3	Serve err	Mississippi St.		+1.9
9	3-6	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×3	Kill	Sierra Dudley	set Paloma Routaboul	+2.6
10	3-7	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×3	Attack err	Marie Jones		+2.4
11	4-7	MIZZOU	MISSST×3	Serve err	Missouri		+1.5
12	5-7	MISSST	MISSST×3	Attack err	Grace O'Reilly		+2.4
13	6-7	MISSST	MISSST×3	Ace	Mary Neal	aced Lydia Stahley	+2.7
14	6-8	MISSST	MIZZOU×3	Kill	Lydia Stahley	set Sierra Dudley	+2.1
15	6-9	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×3	Kill	Kimani Johnson	set Marie Jones	+2.7
16	6-10	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×3	Kill	Kimani Johnson	set Nina Mandovic	+2.5
17	7-10	MIZZOU	MISSST	Kill	Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss	set Erin Kline	+1.6
18	7-11	MISSST	MIZZOU×4	Serve err	Mississippi St.		+1.9
19	7-12	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×4	Attack err	Lindsey Mangelson		+2.2
20	7-13	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×4	Kill	Paige Felder	set Zoey Matias	+1.8
21	7-14	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×4	Attack err	Lindsey Mangelson		+1.4
22	8-14	MIZZOU	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	+0.7
23	8-15	MISSST	MIZZOU	Kill	Paige Felder	set Nina Mandovic	+1.0
24	9-15	MIZZOU	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	+0.7
25	9-16	MISSST	MIZZOU×4	Attack err	Bernardita Aguilar		+0.9
26	9-17	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×4	Attack err	Paloma Routaboul		+0.9
27	9-18	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×4	Kill	Paige Felder	set Grace O'Reilly	+0.5
28	9-19	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×4	Attack err	Paloma Routaboul		+0.3
29	10-19	MIZZOU	MISSST	Attack err	Grace O'Reilly		+0.1
30	10-20	MISSST	MIZZOU	Serve err	Mississippi St.		+0.2
31	10-21	MIZZOU	MIZZOU	Kill	Lydia Stahley	set Paige Felder	+0.1
32	11-21	MIZZOU	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	·
33	11-22	MISSST	MIZZOU	Kill	Lydia Stahley	set Sierra Dudley	·
34	11-23	MIZZOU	MIZZOU	Kill	Grace O'Reilly	set Sierra Dudley	·
35	12-23	MIZZOU	MISSST	Kill	Paloma Routaboul	set Erin Kline	·
36	12-24	MISSST	MIZZOU	Kill	Ainoah Cruz	set Erin Kline	·
37	13-24	MIZZOU	MISSST	Kill	Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss	set Erin Kline	·
38	13-25	MISSST	MIZZOU	Attack err	Lindsey Mangelson		·
Set 2
1	0-1	MIZZOU	MIZZOU	Kill	Paige Felder	set Nina Mandovic	+2.5
2	0-2	MIZZOU	MIZZOU	Kill	Eva Smith	set Nina Mandovic	+2.5
3	1-2	MIZZOU	MISSST	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Erin Kline	+1.8
4	1-3	MISSST	MIZZOU×3	Kill	Paige Felder	set Nina Mandovic	+1.9
5	1-4	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×3	Kill	Lauren Larkin	set Nina Mandovic	+2.5
6	1-5	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×3	Serve err	Missouri		+2.3
7	2-5	MIZZOU	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Erin Kline	+1.5
8	2-6	MISSST	MIZZOU	Serve err	Mississippi St.		+1.7
9	3-6	MIZZOU	MISSST	Serve err	Missouri		+1.5
10	4-6	MISSST	MISSST	Attack err	Lauren Larkin		+2.4
11	4-7	MISSST	MIZZOU	Kill	Paige Felder	set Sierra Dudley	+1.9
12	5-7	MIZZOU	MISSST	Bad set	Paige Felder		+1.8
13	5-8	MISSST	MIZZOU	Serve err	Mississippi St.		+1.9
14	5-9	MIZZOU	MIZZOU	Kill	Grace O'Reilly	set Paige Felder	+2.5
15	6-9	MIZZOU	MISSST×4	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	+1.6
16	7-9	MISSST	MISSST×4	Attack err	Eva Smith		+2.5
17	8-9	MISSST	MISSST×4	Ace	Bernardita Aguilar		+2.8
18	9-9	MISSST	MISSST×4	Kill	Paloma Routaboul	set Erin Kline	+3.0
19	9-10	MISSST	MIZZOU	Kill	Grace O'Reilly	set Sierra Dudley	+2.3
20	9-11	MIZZOU	MIZZOU	Attack err	Paloma Routaboul		+3.1
21	10-11	MIZZOU	MISSST	Kill	Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss	set Erin Kline	+2.2
22	10-12	MISSST	MIZZOU	Kill	Eva Smith	set Nina Mandovic	+2.4
23	10-13	MIZZOU	MIZZOU	Ace	Zoey Matias	aced Mary Neal	+3.1
24	11-13	MIZZOU	MISSST	Kill	Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss	set Erin Kline	+2.0
25	12-13	MISSST	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Erin Kline	+3.1
26	12-14	MISSST	MIZZOU	Kill	Kimani Johnson	set Paige Felder	+2.5
27	13-14	MIZZOU	MISSST	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Erin Kline	+2.4
28	13-15	MISSST	MIZZOU	Serve err	Mississippi St.		+2.6
29	13-16	MIZZOU	MIZZOU	Kill	Grace O'Reilly	set Zoey Matias	+3.4
30	14-16	MIZZOU	MISSST	Serve err	Missouri		+2.1
31	14-17	MISSST	MIZZOU	Kill	Paige Felder	set Sierra Dudley	+2.5
32	14-18	MIZZOU	MIZZOU	Kill	Grace O'Reilly	set Sierra Dudley	+2.9
33	15-18	MIZZOU	MISSST	Attack err	Bernardita Aguilar		+1.6
34	15-19	MISSST	MIZZOU	Kill	Lydia Stahley	set Sierra Dudley	+2.2
35	16-19	MIZZOU	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	+1.6
36	16-20	MISSST	MIZZOU	Kill	Lydia Stahley	set Sierra Dudley	+2.2
37	17-20	MIZZOU	MISSST	Kill	Paloma Routaboul	set Erin Kline	+1.5
38	17-21	MISSST	MIZZOU	Kill	Kimani Johnson	set Nina Mandovic	+2.2
39	18-21	MIZZOU	MISSST	Attack err	Paige Felder		+1.4
40	18-22	MISSST	MIZZOU	Blocked	Lindsey Mangelson	blk Kimani Johnson	+2.2
41	18-23	MIZZOU	MIZZOU	Kill	Paige Felder	set Nina Mandovic	+1.7
42	19-23	MIZZOU	MISSST	Serve err	Missouri		+0.5
43	20-23	MISSST	MISSST	Attack err	Kimani Johnson		+1.3
44	20-24	MISSST	MIZZOU	Kill	Kimani Johnson	set Nina Mandovic	+1.8
45	21-24	MIZZOU	MISSST	Attack err	Paige Felder		+0.5
46	21-25	MISSST	MIZZOU	Kill	Lauren Larkin	set Sierra Dudley	+1.3
Set 3
1	0-1	MISSST	MIZZOU×5	Kill	Kimani Johnson	set Nina Mandovic	+1.2
2	0-2	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×5	Blocked	Bernardita Aguilar	blk Paige Felder, Lauren Larkin	+1.7
3	0-3	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×5	Kill	Kimani Johnson	set Nina Mandovic	+1.6
4	0-4	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×5	Attack err	Bernardita Aguilar		+1.5
5	0-5	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×5	Kill	Paige Felder	set Nina Mandovic	+1.4
6	1-5	MIZZOU	MISSST	Kill	Noella Obi	set Cayley Hanson	+0.9
7	1-6	MISSST	MIZZOU	Kill	Paige Felder	set Nina Mandovic	+1.0
8	2-6	MIZZOU	MISSST	Kill	Noella Obi	set Ainoah Cruz	+0.9
9	2-7	MISSST	MIZZOU	Serve err	Mississippi St.		+1.0
10	3-7	MIZZOU	MISSST	Kill	Paloma Routaboul	set Ainoah Cruz	+0.9
11	4-7	MISSST	MISSST	Attack err	Lydia Stahley		+1.4
12	4-8	MISSST	MIZZOU	Kill	Lauren Larkin	set Sierra Dudley	+1.2
13	4-9	MIZZOU	MIZZOU	Kill	Grace O'Reilly	set Sierra Dudley	+1.4
14	5-9	MIZZOU	MISSST	Kill	Paloma Routaboul	set Erin Kline	+0.9
15	5-10	MISSST	MIZZOU×3	Kill	Lydia Stahley	set Ainoah Cruz	+1.1
16	5-11	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×3	Blocked	Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss	blk Eva Smith, Lydia Stahley	+1.2
17	5-12	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×3	Kill	Lydia Stahley	set Nina Mandovic	+1.0
18	6-12	MIZZOU	MISSST	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Erin Kline	+0.5
19	7-12	MISSST	MISSST	Ace	Kyla Scharfman	aced Lydia Stahley	+1.0
20	7-13	MISSST	MIZZOU×3	Kill	Kimani Johnson	set Nina Mandovic	+0.9
21	7-14	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×3	Kill	Paige Felder	set Nina Mandovic	+0.9
22	7-15	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×3	Kill	Paige Felder	set Nina Mandovic	+0.7
23	8-15	MIZZOU	MISSST×6	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Erin Kline	+0.3
24	9-15	MISSST	MISSST×6	Ace	Cayley Hanson	aced Zoey Matias	+0.6
25	10-15	MISSST	MISSST×6	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Mary Neal	+0.9
26	11-15	MISSST	MISSST×6	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set McKenna Yates	+1.2
27	12-15	MISSST	MISSST×6	Blocked	Kimani Johnson	blk Lindsey Mangelson, Noella Obi	+1.5
28	13-15	MISSST	MISSST×6	Ace	Cayley Hanson		+1.9
29	13-16	MISSST	MIZZOU	Serve err	Mississippi St.		+1.7
30	14-16	MIZZOU	MISSST	Attack err	Paige Felder		+1.4
31	14-17	MISSST	MIZZOU	Kill	Paige Felder	set Nina Mandovic	+1.7
32	15-17	MIZZOU	MISSST×3	Serve err	Missouri		+1.4
33	16-17	MISSST	MISSST×3	Kill	Paloma Routaboul	set Cayley Hanson	+2.5
34	17-17	MISSST	MISSST×3	Bad set	Sierra Dudley		+2.9
35	17-18	MISSST	MIZZOU	Bad set	Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss		+2.2
36	17-19	MIZZOU	MIZZOU	Blocked	Bernardita Aguilar	blk Lydia Stahley, Lauren Larkin	+3.0
37	18-19	MIZZOU	MISSST×4	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	+2.0
38	19-19	MISSST	MISSST×4	Kill	Paloma Routaboul	set Erin Kline	+3.3
39	20-19	MISSST	MISSST×4	Kill	Paloma Routaboul	set Erin Kline	+3.6
40	21-19	MISSST	MISSST×4	Attack err	Claire Morrissey		+3.5
41	21-20	MISSST	MIZZOU	Kill	Lauren Larkin	set Sierra Dudley	+2.1
42	22-20	MIZZOU	MISSST	Kill	Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss	set Erin Kline	+2.8
43	22-21	MISSST	MIZZOU×3	Kill	Claire Morrissey	set Sierra Dudley	+2.2
44	22-22	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×3	Blocked	Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss	blk Lydia Stahley, Eva Smith	+4.4
45	22-23	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×3	Attack err	Lindsey Mangelson		+5.4
46	23-23	MIZZOU	MISSST	Kill	Nina Mandovic	set Lydia Stahley	+3.7
47	23-24	MISSST	MIZZOU	Kill	Eva Smith	set Nina Mandovic	+4.9
48	23-25	MIZZOU	MIZZOU	Kill	Kimani Johnson	set Nina Mandovic	+6.8

Score shown after each rally, Mississippi St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

Missouri def. Mississippi St. 3–0

Paige Felder needed just 3 sets for 14 kills. Missouri swept Mississippi St.