FinalFri, Nov 6, 2026Watch on SECN+

Texas def. Missouri 3–0

RallyIQ pre-match: Texas 72.2% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Nov 6, 6:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Texas won at Missouri 3-0 (27-25, 25-13, 25-23) on Fri, Nov 6, 2026. Texas' Torrey Stafford led with 12 kills, and Ella Swindle added 13 digs.

Data through · final Nov 6

Set123Sets
TEXAS2725253
MIZZOU2513230

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Texas trailed 12–19 in the first and still took the set, then the match.

The match turned once. Numbers are Texas's win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. RallyIQ gave Texas 72% before first serve.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 1 · Texas 12–12 Missouri

    7 straight Missouri points broke a 12–12 tie and made it 19–12.

    Texas 71% → 53%

Missouri above 50Texas belowMax swing 8.6%

TexasMissouri

Sideout %
Texas 72.6·Missouri 57.9
Break %
Texas 42.1·Missouri 27.4
Hitting
Texas .273·Missouri .176
Longest run
Texas 5·Missouri 7

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Missouri above 50 · Texas below
SET 1SET 2SET 310050100+8.6% TEXASrally 138 · set 3

Biggest swing: 8.6% to Texas — set 1, TEXAS 24-23 MIZZOU. Attack error by Kimani Johnson. MIZZOU win probability 31% → 23%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

TEXAS 72.4%27.6% MIZZOU

Texas wins

3-0
25.0%
3-1
27.8%
3-2
19.7%

Missouri wins

3-0
5.1%
3-1
9.6%
3-2
12.9%
TEXAS break %
42.1% vs this opp
MIZZOU break %
37.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Kimani JohnsonAttack error+8.6%

    Attack error by Kimani Johnson

    Set 1 · TEXAS 24-23 MIZZOU · TEXAS 69% → 77%

  2. 02
    Lydia StahleyAttack error+7.7%

    Attack error by Lydia Stahley

    Set 1 · TEXAS 27-25 MIZZOU · TEXAS 77% → 85%

  3. 03
    Kimani JohnsonAttack error+6.0%

    Attack error by Kimani Johnson

    Set 1 · TEXAS 22-22 MIZZOU · TEXAS 63% → 69%

  4. 04
    Unlogged pointNCAA feed gap+5.7%

    Point Missouri (not logged in NCAA feed)

    Set 1 · TEXAS 24-24 MIZZOU · MIZZOU 23% → 29%

  5. 05
    Cari SpearsKill+5.7%

    Kill by Cari Spears (set by Ella Swindle)

    Set 1 · TEXAS 25-24 MIZZOU · TEXAS 71% → 77%

  6. 06
    Torrey StaffordAttack error+5.7%

    Attack error by Torrey Stafford

    Set 1 · TEXAS 25-25 MIZZOU · MIZZOU 23% → 29%

  7. 07

    Kill by Torrey Stafford (set by Ella Swindle)

    Set 1 · TEXAS 26-25 MIZZOU · TEXAS 71% → 77%

  8. 08
    Paige FelderKill+5.1%

    Kill by Paige Felder (set by Nina Mandovic)

    Set 1 · TEXAS 22-23 MIZZOU · MIZZOU 31% → 36%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Texasaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
312234.294111100010.513.5
310834.0590127104213
310223.3480001002111
36014.4290000016410
3519.44400110010.55.5
3000–1901900000
36113.385000300006
3000–7111200001
3000–13001300000
2000–000000000
1001.000200000000
1000–000000000
Team totals4914128.2734236562114877
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
312534.20601130010.513.5
37014.500000100218
3129-.111000000001
3000–14001000000
2249-.22200020010.52.5
2214.25000000010.52.5
38426.15400040010.58.5
3102.5001711500002
3000–1001800000
3000–201600000
22010.20000000010.52.5
2000–000100000
1204.50000020010.52.5
1227.000000100002
Team totals3918119.176342353308461

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 TEXAS · MIZZOU 7

Set 1

27-25

Longest run 5 TEXASMIZZOU 7

Set 2

25-13

Longest run 4 TEXASMIZZOU 3

Set 3

25-23

Longest run 3 TEXASMIZZOU 3

Bars above the line = Missouri leads, below = Texas leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Texas

SlotSideout %Break %
1
71%5/7
43%3/7
2
100%5/5
50%5/10
3
71%5/7
38%3/8
4
100%5/5
38%3/8
5
56%5/9
38%3/8
6
100%4/4
50%4/8
All
78%29/37
43%21/49

Missouri

SlotSideout %Break %
1
63%5/8
0%0/4
2
50%5/10
29%2/7
3
63%5/8
29%2/7
4
63%5/8
0%0/5
5
56%5/9
0%0/5
6
50%3/6
44%4/9
All
57%28/49
22%8/37

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

138 rallies

#TEXAS-MIZZOUSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0TEXASTEXASKillCari Spearsset Rella Binney+2.1
21-1TEXASMIZZOUKillKimani Johnsonset Nina Mandovic+1.5
32-1MIZZOUTEXASKillNya Buntonset Rella Binney+1.4
42-2TEXASMIZZOUAttack errHenley Anderson+1.5
53-2MIZZOUTEXASKillCari Spearsset Rella Binney+1.5
63-3TEXASMIZZOU×3Serve errTexas+1.5
73-4MIZZOUMIZZOU×3Attack errTorrey Stafford+2.4
83-5MIZZOUMIZZOU×3AceMissouriaced Henley Anderson+2.6
94-5MIZZOUTEXASAttack errPaige Felder+1.6
104-6TEXASMIZZOUKillPaige Felderset Sierra Dudley+1.8
115-6MIZZOUTEXASKillTaylor Harveyset Genevieve Harris+1.6
126-6TEXASTEXASBad setLydia Stahley+2.5
136-7TEXASMIZZOUKillGrace O'Reillyset Genevieve Harris+1.8
147-7MIZZOUTEXASKillTorrey Staffordset Genevieve Harris+1.7
157-8TEXASMIZZOUAttack errHenley Anderson+1.9
167-9MIZZOUMIZZOUBlockedHenley Andersonblk Kimani Johnson, Tia Phinezy+2.9
178-9MIZZOUTEXASKillTorrey Staffordset Rella Binney+1.8
188-10TEXASMIZZOUKillTia Phinezyset Nina Mandovic+2.0
199-10MIZZOUTEXASBlockedTia Phinezyblk Nya Bunton+1.8
209-11TEXASMIZZOUKillKimani Johnsonset Nina Mandovic+2.1
2110-11MIZZOUTEXASKillTorrey Staffordset Rella Binney+1.9
2211-11TEXASTEXASAttack errPaige Felder+2.9
2311-12TEXASMIZZOUKillPaige Felderset Nina Mandovic+2.1
2412-12MIZZOUTEXASKillCari Spearsset Rella Binney+2.0
2512-13TEXASMIZZOU×7KillGrace O'Reillyset Sierra Dudley+2.2
2612-14MIZZOUMIZZOU×7KillGrace O'Reillyset Sierra Dudley+3.4
2712-15MIZZOUMIZZOU×7AceMissouri+3.4
2812-16MIZZOUMIZZOU×7KillGrace O'Reillyset Nina Mandovic+3.1
2912-17MIZZOUMIZZOU×7KillLauren Larkinset Sierra Dudley+2.6
3012-18MIZZOUMIZZOU×7Attack errTaylor Harvey+1.9
3112-19MIZZOUMIZZOU×7KillGrace O'Reillyset Genevieve Harris+1.3
3213-19MIZZOUTEXASServe errMissouri+0.5
3314-19TEXASTEXASKillHenley Andersonset Ramsey Gary+1.1
3414-20TEXASMIZZOUServe errTexas+1.2
3515-20MIZZOUTEXASKillHenley Andersonset Ella Swindle+0.6
3615-21TEXASMIZZOUKillTia Phinezyset Sierra Dudley+1.1
3716-21MIZZOUTEXAS×5KillHenley Andersonset Ella Swindle+0.5
3817-21TEXASTEXAS×5KillHenley Anderson+1.2
3918-21TEXASTEXAS×5Attack errKimani Johnson+2.0
4019-21TEXASTEXAS×5KillTorrey Staffordset Rella Binney+3.0
4120-21TEXASTEXAS×5BlockedLydia Stahleyblk Nya Bunton, Henley Anderson+4.2
4220-22TEXASMIZZOUAttack errHenley Anderson+3.9
4321-22MIZZOUTEXASServe errMissouri+2.9
4422-22TEXASTEXASAttack errKimani Johnson+6.0
4522-23TEXASMIZZOUKillPaige Felderset Nina Mandovic+5.1
4623-23MIZZOUTEXASKillCari Spearsset Rella Binney+4.7
4724-23TEXASTEXASAttack errKimani Johnson+8.6
4824-24MIZZOU
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+5.7
4925-24MIZZOUTEXASKillCari Spearsset Ella Swindle+5.7
5025-25TEXASMIZZOUAttack errTorrey Stafford+5.7
5126-25MIZZOUTEXASKillTorrey Staffordset Ella Swindle+5.7
5227-25TEXASTEXASAttack errLydia Stahley+7.7
Set 2
11-0MIZZOUTEXAS×3KillNya Buntonset Rella Binney+1.1
22-0TEXASTEXAS×3BlockedKimani Johnsonblk Torrey Stafford, Nya Bunton+1.6
33-0TEXASTEXAS×3Attack errPaige Felder+1.5
43-1TEXASMIZZOUServe errTexas+1.0
54-1MIZZOUTEXASKillNya Buntonset Rella Binney+1.0
64-2TEXASMIZZOU×3KillPaige Felderset Nina Mandovic+1.0
74-3MIZZOUMIZZOU×3Attack errCari Spears+1.7
84-4MIZZOUMIZZOU×3KillLauren Larkin+1.9
95-4MIZZOUTEXAS×3Serve errMissouri+1.2
106-4TEXASTEXAS×3KillTorrey Staffordset Ramsey Gary+1.8
117-4TEXASTEXAS×3KillTorrey Staffordset Ramsey Gary+1.6
127-5TEXASMIZZOUKillGrace O'Reillyset Sierra Dudley+1.0
138-5MIZZOUTEXAS×3KillAddy Gaidoset Ella Swindle+1.1
149-5TEXASTEXAS×3AceTorrey Stafford+1.4
1510-5TEXASTEXAS×3KillTaylor Harvey+1.2
1610-6TEXASMIZZOUAttack errHenley Anderson+0.7
1711-6MIZZOUTEXASAttack errGrace O'Reilly+0.8
1811-7TEXASMIZZOUServe errTexas+0.7
1912-7MIZZOUTEXASKillAddy Gaidoset Ella Swindle+0.8
2012-8TEXASMIZZOUKillPaige Felderset Nina Mandovic+0.7
2113-8MIZZOUTEXASKillCari Spearsset Rella Binney+0.8
2213-9TEXASMIZZOUServe errTexas+0.7
2314-9MIZZOUTEXAS×3BlockedPaige Felderblk Cari Spears, Nya Bunton+0.8
2415-9TEXASTEXAS×3KillTorrey Staffordset Rella Binney+0.9
2516-9TEXASTEXAS×3KillNya Buntonset Rella Binney+0.6
2616-10TEXASMIZZOUKillPaige Felderset Zoey Matias+0.3
2717-10MIZZOUTEXASKillCari Spearsset Rella Binney+0.4
2817-11TEXASMIZZOUKillGrace O'Reillyset Sierra Dudley+0.2
2918-11MIZZOUTEXASAttack errTorrey Stafford+0.3
3018-12TEXASMIZZOUKillLauren Larkinset Sierra Dudley+0.2
3119-12MIZZOUTEXAS×4KillHenley Andersonset Ella Swindle+0.3
3220-12TEXASTEXAS×4BlockedGrace O'Reillyblk Henley Anderson, Nya Bunton+0.2
3321-12TEXASTEXAS×4Attack errGrace O'Reilly+0.1
3422-12TEXASTEXAS×4KillHenley Anderson·
3522-13TEXASMIZZOUKillGrace O'Reillyset Sierra Dudley·
3623-13MIZZOUTEXAS×3KillAddy Gaidoset Ella Swindle·
3724-13TEXASTEXAS×3KillCari Spearsset Ramsey Gary·
3825-13TEXASTEXAS×3Bad setNina Mandovic·
Set 3
10-1TEXASMIZZOUAttack errHenley Anderson+0.7
21-1MIZZOUTEXASKillNya Buntonset Rella Binney+0.6
31-2TEXASMIZZOUKillEva Smithset Sierra Dudley+0.7
42-2MIZZOUTEXASBlockedPaige Felderblk Cari Spears, Nya Bunton+0.6
53-2TEXASTEXASAceRamsey Gary+1.0
63-3TEXASMIZZOUKillPaige Felderset Nina Mandovic+0.7
74-3MIZZOUTEXASKillTaylor Harveyset Rella Binney+0.6
84-4TEXASMIZZOUKillMaca Lobaglioset Nina Mandovic+0.7
95-4MIZZOUTEXASBad setCeylin Kuyan+0.7
105-5TEXASMIZZOU×3KillMaca Lobaglioset Nina Mandovic+0.7
115-6MIZZOUMIZZOU×3Attack errHenley Anderson+1.1
125-7MIZZOUMIZZOU×3KillLauren Larkinset Sierra Dudley+1.2
136-7MIZZOUTEXASKillHenley Andersonset Ella Swindle+0.7
146-8TEXASMIZZOUBlockedHenley Andersonblk Lauren Larkin, Grace O'Reilly+0.8
157-8MIZZOUTEXASKillAddy Gaidoset Ella Swindle+0.7
167-9TEXASMIZZOUKillLydia Stahleyset Sierra Dudley+0.9
178-9MIZZOUTEXAS×3KillHenley Andersonset Rella Binney+0.8
189-9TEXASTEXAS×3KillCari Spears+1.2
1910-9TEXASTEXAS×3AceHenley Anderson+1.2
2010-10TEXASMIZZOUBlockedCari Spearsblk Paige Felder, Eva Smith+0.8
2111-10MIZZOUTEXASKillNya Buntonset Rella Binney+0.8
2211-11TEXASMIZZOUKillPaige Felderset Nina Mandovic+0.8
2312-11MIZZOUTEXASKillTaylor Harveyset Rella Binney+0.8
2413-11TEXASTEXASKillTorrey Staffordset Ramsey Gary+1.2
2513-12TEXASMIZZOUKillCeylin Kuyanset Ainoah Cruz+0.8
2614-12MIZZOUTEXASAttack errMaca Lobaglio+0.8
2715-12TEXASTEXASBlockedMaca Lobaglioblk Henley Anderson, Taylor Harvey+1.1
2815-13TEXASMIZZOUKillCeylin Kuyanset Nina Mandovic+0.6
2915-14MIZZOUMIZZOUBlockedAddy Gaidoblk Ceylin Kuyan, Lauren Larkin+1.2
3016-14MIZZOUTEXASKillAddy Gaidoset Ella Swindle+0.9
3116-15TEXASMIZZOUKillLauren Larkinset Sierra Dudley+0.8
3217-15MIZZOUTEXASKillAddy Gaidoset Ella Swindle+0.9
3318-15TEXASTEXASBlockedGrace O'Reillyblk Henley Anderson, Nya Bunton+1.2
3418-16TEXASMIZZOU×3Serve errRella Binney+0.7
3518-17MIZZOUMIZZOU×3KillEva Smithset Sierra Dudley+1.3
3618-18MIZZOUMIZZOU×3KillPaige Felderset Sierra Dudley+1.7
3719-18MIZZOUTEXASKillHenley Andersonset Ramsey Gary+1.2
3820-18TEXASTEXASKillTorrey Staffordset Ramsey Gary+1.7
3920-19TEXASMIZZOUKillPaige Felderset Zoey Matias+1.0
4021-19MIZZOUTEXASKillTorrey Staffordset Rella Binney+1.2
4121-20TEXASMIZZOUKillPaige Felderset Sierra Dudley+1.0
4222-20MIZZOUTEXASKillCari Spearsset Rella Binney+1.3
4322-21TEXASMIZZOUKillSierra Dudley+1.1
4423-21MIZZOUTEXASKillTorrey Staffordset Ella Swindle+1.5
4523-22TEXASMIZZOUKillLauren Larkinset Sierra Dudley+1.1
4623-23MIZZOUMIZZOUKillLauren Larkinset Sierra Dudley+2.8
4724-23MIZZOUTEXASKillTaylor Harveyset Ella Swindle+2.5
4825-23TEXASTEXASKillHenley Andersonset Torrey Stafford+3.4

Score shown after each rally, Texas first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).