Final · 4 setsSat, Oct 10, 2026Watch on ESPN+

St. John's (NY) def. Providence 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: St. John's (NY) 52.4% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 10, 1:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

St. John's (NY) won at Providence 3-1 (25-15, 21-25, 25-23, 25-23) on Sat, Oct 10, 2026. St. John's (NY)'s Lejla Hadžiredžepovic led with 16 kills, and Rashanny Solano Smith added 19 digs.

Data through · final Oct 10

Set1234Sets
STJOHN252125253
PROV152523231

Match story · written from the play-by-play

St. John's (NY) built it on runs.

No single rally moved win probability more than 10.3 points. Providence peaked at 51% in Set 3. These are the numbers behind it. St. John's (NY) went in as RallyIQ's 52% pick.

St. John's (NY)Providence
  • Longest run+1
    65

    St. John's (NY) scored 6 straight in the first set to go from 4–4 to a 10–4 lead. Final score of the set: 25–15.

Providence above 50St. John's (NY) belowMax swing 10.3%

St. John's (NY)Providence

Hitting
St. John's (NY) .130·Providence .183
Aces
St. John's (NY) 13·Providence 4
Serve err
St. John's (NY) 9·Providence 11
Blocks
St. John's (NY) 7·Providence 161 BS · 12 BA vs 3 BS · 26 BA
Digs
St. John's (NY) 60·Providence 51

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Providence above 50 · St. John's (NY) below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+10.3% STJOHNrally 182 · set 4

Biggest swing: 10.3% to St. John's (NY) — set 3, STJOHN 25-23 PROV. Kill by Lejla HadÅŸiredÅŸepovic (set by Maggie Carcillo). PROV win probability 34% → 23%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

STJOHN 48.8%51.2% PROV

St. John's (NY) wins

3-0
12.0%
3-1
18.2%
3-2
18.5%

Providence wins

3-0
13.0%
3-1
19.3%
3-2
18.9%
STJOHN break %
44.2% vs this opp
PROV break %
44.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Lejla HadÅŸiredÅŸepovicKill+10.3%

    Kill by Lejla HadÅŸiredÅŸepovic (set by Maggie Carcillo)

    Set 3 · STJOHN 25-23 PROV · STJOHN 66% → 77%

  2. 02
    Lejla HadÅŸiredÅŸepovicKill+10.1%

    Kill by Lejla HadÅŸiredÅŸepovic (set by Rashanny Solano Smith)

    Set 4 · STJOHN 25-23 PROV · STJOHN 90% → 100%

  3. 03

    Macy Taylor stuffed by Maggie Carcillo & Chloe' Bell

    Set 3 · STJOHN 24-22 PROV · STJOHN 63% → 71%

  4. 04
    Shea DupuisKill+6.1%

    Kill by Shea Dupuis (set by Sarah Musial)

    Set 3 · STJOHN 23-22 PROV · PROV 31% → 37%

  5. 05
    Carola TesoroKill+5.6%

    Kill by Carola Tesoro (set by Maggie Carcillo)

    Set 3 · STJOHN 22-19 PROV · STJOHN 65% → 70%

  6. 06
    ProvidenceAce+5.6%

    Providence ace on Carola Tesoro

    Set 4 · STJOHN 24-23 PROV · PROV 4% → 10%

  7. 07
    Kendall WhiteKill+5.3%

    Kill by Kendall White (set by Maggie Carcillo)

    Set 3 · STJOHN 21-19 PROV · STJOHN 59% → 65%

  8. 08
    Carola TesoroKill+4.9%

    Kill by Carola Tesoro (set by Rashanny Solano Smith)

    Set 3 · STJOHN 20-18 PROV · STJOHN 59% → 64%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
416747.1910011002117
411933.06103111300014
49116.5000004014312
46417.11800000010.56.5
4002.000183380010.53.5
30310-.300000000211
4001.0009421900004
4001.0002122300002
4000–110600001
3336.000000100003
26614.000000200006
1215.200000100213
1102.500000000001
1000–000400000
1000–000000000
Team totals5434154.13049139604112796
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
413235.31413054132.518.5
47420.1500004014310
44215.133005101648
4328.12500000073.56.5
4103.3331300800001
1024-.500000210000
47122.273200200429
4000–1413100001
4011-1.0005021910000
33211.091000800214
3000–001120000
2001.000000000000
Team totals3816120.1833541151133261686

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

St. John's (NY) vs Providence

Season series · St. John's (NY) leads 1-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 STJOHN · PROV 5

Set 1

25-15

Longest run 6 STJOHNPROV 3

Set 2

21-25

Longest run 3 STJOHNPROV 5

Set 3

25-23

Longest run 4 STJOHNPROV 4

Set 4

25-23

Longest run 4 STJOHNPROV 3

Bars above the line = Providence leads, below = St. John's (NY) leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

St. John's (NY)

SlotSideout %Break %
1
46%6/13
38%3/8
2
50%6/12
40%4/10
3
83%5/6
33%3/9
4
83%5/6
17%1/6
5
67%4/6
43%3/7
6
80%4/5
33%2/6
All
63%30/48
35%16/46

Providence

SlotSideout %Break %
1
55%6/11
44%4/9
2
60%6/10
57%8/14
3
71%5/7
17%1/6
4
100%5/5
17%1/6
5
44%4/9
29%2/7
6
100%4/4
33%2/6
All
65%30/46
38%18/48

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

182 rallies

#STJOHN-PROVSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0STJOHNSTJOHN×3Attack errFielding Mayhugh+2.4
22-0STJOHNSTJOHN×3Attack errFielding Mayhugh+2.4
33-0STJOHNSTJOHN×3Attack errTori Otter+2.3
43-1STJOHNPROVServe errSt. John's (NY)+1.7
53-2PROVPROVAttack errLejla HadÅŸiredÅŸepovic+2.4
64-2PROVSTJOHNServe errProvidence+2.0
74-3STJOHNPROVAttack errCarola Tesoroset Maggie Carcillo+1.9
84-4PROVPROVKillShea Dupuisset Sarah Musial+2.6
95-4PROVSTJOHN×6Serve errProvidence+2.1
106-4STJOHNSTJOHN×6AceSt. John's (NY)+2.6
117-4STJOHNSTJOHN×6KillChloe' Bell+2.5
128-4STJOHNSTJOHN×6KillCarola Tesoroset Maggie Carcillo+2.3
139-4STJOHNSTJOHN×6AceSt. John's (NY)aced Fielding Mayhugh+2.1
1410-4STJOHNSTJOHN×6KillCarola Tesoro+1.8
1510-5STJOHNPROVAttack errCarola Tesoroset Rashanny Solano Smith+1.1
1610-6PROVPROVKillMacy Taylorset Sarah Musial+1.8
1711-6PROVSTJOHNKillChloe' Bellset Maggie Carcillo+1.7
1812-6STJOHNSTJOHNKillBarbara Costa dos Santosset Martina Capponcelli+1.8
1912-7STJOHNPROVKillMacy Taylor+1.1
2013-7PROVSTJOHN×6KillBarbara Costa dos Santosset Martina Capponcelli+1.4
2114-7STJOHN
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.4
2215-7STJOHNSTJOHN×6BlockedAubrey Easterwoodblk Chloe' Bell+1.0
2316-7STJOHNSTJOHN×6AceSt. John's (NY)+0.7
2417-7STJOHNSTJOHN×6KillLejla HadÅŸiredÅŸepovicset Martina Capponcelli+0.4
2518-7STJOHNSTJOHN×6KillLejla HadÅŸiredÅŸepovic+0.2
2618-8STJOHNPROVKillMacy Taylorset Sarah Musial+0.1
2719-8PROVSTJOHNKillChloe' Bellset Martina Capponcelli+0.2
2819-9STJOHNPROVKillAubrey Easterwoodset Miller McDonald+0.1
2919-10PROVPROVAttack errBarbara Costa dos Santos+0.2
3020-10PROVSTJOHNKillLejla HadÅŸiredÅŸepovicset Martina Capponcelli+0.2
3121-10STJOHNSTJOHNAceSt. John's (NY)aced Megan Weldon+0.1
3221-11STJOHNPROVKillTori Otterset Macy Taylor·
3322-11PROVSTJOHNServe errProvidence+0.1
3422-12STJOHNPROVKillLyric Berry·
3523-12PROVSTJOHNKillKendall Whiteset Maggie Carcillo·
3623-13STJOHNPROV×3Attack errKendall Whiteset Rashanny Solano Smith·
3723-14PROVPROV×3BlockedCarola Tesoroblk Shea Dupuis, Lyric Berry·
3823-15PROVPROV×3KillLyric Berry·
3924-15PROVSTJOHNKillChloe' Bellset Maggie Carcillo+0.1
4025-15STJOHNSTJOHNAceSt. John's (NY)·
Set 2
10-1PROVPROVAttack errTeodora Stamenkovic+2.4
20-2PROVPROVKillAubrey Easterwoodset Miller McDonald+2.4
31-2PROVSTJOHNKillLejla HadÅŸiredÅŸepovicset Martina Capponcelli+1.8
41-3STJOHNPROVServe errSt. John's (NY)+1.9
51-4PROVPROVAttack errTeodora Stamenkovic+2.4
62-4PROVSTJOHN×3KillLejla HadÅŸiredÅŸepovicset Rashanny Solano Smith+1.7
73-4STJOHNSTJOHN×3Attack errTori Otter+2.4
84-4STJOHNSTJOHN×3AceSt. John's (NY)aced Ava Dyer+2.5
94-5STJOHNPROVKillTori Otterset Miller McDonald+2.0
105-5PROVSTJOHNKillKendall Whiteset Maggie Carcillo+2.0
115-6STJOHNPROVKillTori Otterset Miller McDonald+2.1
126-6PROVSTJOHNAttack errLyric Berryset Sarah Musial+2.1
136-7STJOHNPROVBlockedBarbara Costa dos Santosblk Lyla Buser, Lyric Berry+2.2
146-8PROVPROVBlockedCarola Tesoroblk Macy Taylor, Lyric Berry+2.7
157-8PROVSTJOHNServe errProvidence+2.1
168-8STJOHNSTJOHNBlockedMacy Taylorblk Angelica Rodriguez, Chloe' Bell+2.8
178-9STJOHNPROVKillShea Dupuisset Sarah Musial+2.3
189-9PROVSTJOHNAttack errAva Dyerset Shea Dupuis+2.3
199-10STJOHNPROVBlockedLejla HadÅŸiredÅŸepovicblk Aubrey Easterwood, Shea Dupuis+2.4
209-11PROVPROVAttack errAngelica Rodriguez+3.0
2110-11PROVSTJOHNKillAngelica Rodriguezset Rashanny Solano Smith+2.2
2210-12STJOHNPROV×5KillMiller McDonald+2.4
2310-13PROVPROV×5BlockedLejla HadÅŸiredÅŸepovicblk Tori Otter+2.9
2410-14PROVPROV×5AceProvidence+2.7
2510-15PROVPROV×5AceProvidenceaced Carola Tesoro+2.3
2610-16PROVPROV×5BlockedTeodora Stamenkovicblk Aubrey Easterwood+1.8
2711-16PROVSTJOHNKillLejla HadÅŸiredÅŸepovicset Maggie Carcillo+1.0
2811-17STJOHNPROVBlockedCarola Tesoroblk Tori Otter, Aubrey Easterwood+1.4
2912-17PROVSTJOHNKillCarola Tesoroset Katianna Betancur+1.0
3013-17STJOHNSTJOHNAttack errLyric Berry+1.7
3113-18STJOHNPROVServe errSt. John's (NY)+1.8
3214-18PROVSTJOHNKillKendall Whiteset Maggie Carcillo+1.3
3314-19STJOHNPROVServe errSt. John's (NY)+1.8
3415-19PROVSTJOHNBlockedKendall Whiteblk Chloe' Bell, Angelica Rodriguez+1.2
3516-19STJOHNSTJOHNAceSt. John's (NY)aced Megan Weldon+2.2
3616-20STJOHNPROVKillMacy Taylorset Sarah Musial+2.4
3716-21PROVPROVBlockedLejla HadÅŸiredÅŸepovicblk Aubrey Easterwood, Shea Dupuis+2.1
3817-21PROVSTJOHNKillLejla HadÅŸiredÅŸepovicset Rashanny Solano Smith+1.0
3917-22STJOHNPROVKillMacy Taylor+1.6
4017-23PROVPROVKillMacy Taylorset Ava Dyer+1.1
4118-23PROVSTJOHN×3KillAngelica Rodriguezset Martina Capponcelli+0.3
4219-23STJOHNSTJOHN×3KillLejla HadÅŸiredÅŸepovicset Rashanny Solano Smith+0.8
4320-23STJOHNSTJOHN×3BlockedTori Otterblk Lejla HadÅŸiredÅŸepovic, Teodora Stamenkovic+1.4
4420-24STJOHNPROVKillMacy Taylorset Miller McDonald+2.1
4521-24PROVSTJOHNServe errProvidence+0.7
4621-25STJOHNPROVBlockedKendall Whiteblk Lyric Berry, Macy Taylor+1.5
Set 3
11-0STJOHNSTJOHNAceSt. John's (NY)aced Macy Taylor+3.2
21-1STJOHNPROVKillTori Otterset Miller McDonald+2.5
32-1PROVSTJOHNKillCarola Tesoroset Maggie Carcillo+2.6
42-2STJOHNPROVBad setCarola Tesoro+2.6
52-3PROVPROVAceProvidenceaced Carola Tesoro+3.4
63-3PROVSTJOHNKillCarola Tesoroset Martina Capponcelli+2.6
73-4STJOHNPROVAttack errLejla HadÅŸiredÅŸepovicset Martina Capponcelli+2.7
84-4PROVSTJOHNKillSoheila Cirelliset Martina Capponcelli+2.7
94-5STJOHNPROVAttack errSoheila Cirelliset Martina Capponcelli+2.8
105-5PROVSTJOHN×4KillBarbara Costa dos Santosset Martina Capponcelli+2.8
116-5STJOHNSTJOHN×4Attack errAubrey Easterwood+3.6
127-5STJOHNSTJOHN×4KillSoheila Cirelliset Aubrey Easterwood+3.6
138-5STJOHNSTJOHN×4KillKendall Whiteset Maggie Carcillo+3.4
148-6STJOHNPROVServe errSt. John's (NY)+2.5
158-7PROVPROVBlockedSoheila Cirelliblk Tori Otter, Aubrey Easterwood+3.5
169-7PROVSTJOHNKillSoheila Cirelliset Rashanny Solano Smith+3.0
179-8STJOHNPROVKillMacy Taylor+2.9
1810-8PROVSTJOHN×3KillKya Harrisset Maggie Carcillo+3.1
1911-8STJOHNSTJOHN×3AceSt. John's (NY)aced Macy Taylor+3.7
2012-8STJOHNSTJOHN×3BlockedLyla Buserblk Kendall White, Chloe' Bell+3.3
2112-9STJOHNPROV×4KillTori Otterset Miller McDonald+2.3
2212-10PROVPROV×4Attack errChloe' Bell+3.4
2312-11PROVPROV×4Attack errCarola Tesoro+3.9
2412-12PROVPROV×4BlockedCarola Tesoroblk Tori Otter, Lyric Berry+4.3
2513-12PROVSTJOHNServe errProvidence+3.6
2614-12STJOHNSTJOHNKillChloe' Bellset Martina Capponcelli+4.4
2714-13STJOHNPROVServe errSt. John's (NY)+3.3
2815-13PROVSTJOHNKillCarola Tesoroset Martina Capponcelli+3.7
2916-13STJOHNSTJOHNAceSt. John's (NY)aced Macy Taylor+4.3
3016-14STJOHNPROVAttack errLejla HadÅŸiredÅŸepovicset Martina Capponcelli+3.0
3117-14PROVSTJOHNKillChloe' Bellset Martina Capponcelli+3.5
3217-15STJOHNPROVKillMacy Taylorset Sarah Musial+3.0
3317-16PROVPROVAttack errBarbara Costa dos Santos+4.7
3418-16PROVSTJOHNServe errProvidence+4.3
3518-17STJOHNPROVKillMacy Taylorset Sarah Musial+3.9
3619-17PROVSTJOHNKillLejla HadÅŸiredÅŸepovicset Maggie Carcillo+4.5
3719-18STJOHNPROVKillMacy Taylorset Miller McDonald+4.1
3820-18PROVSTJOHNKillCarola Tesoroset Rashanny Solano Smith+4.9
3920-19STJOHNPROVServe errSt. John's (NY)+4.3
4021-19PROVSTJOHNKillKendall Whiteset Maggie Carcillo+5.3
4122-19STJOHNSTJOHNKillCarola Tesoroset Maggie Carcillo+5.6
4222-20STJOHNPROVKillTori Otterset Miller McDonald+3.1
4323-20PROVSTJOHNKillChloe' Bellset Maggie Carcillo+4.7
4423-21STJOHNPROVKillLyla Buser+2.8
4523-22PROVPROVKillShea Dupuisset Sarah Musial+6.1
4624-22PROVSTJOHNBlockedMacy Taylorblk Maggie Carcillo, Chloe' Bell+7.8
4724-23STJOHNPROVKillShea Dupuisset Sarah Musial+4.6
4825-23PROVSTJOHNKillLejla HadÅŸiredÅŸepovicset Maggie Carcillo+10.3
Set 4
10-1PROVPROVAttack errSoheila Cirelli+3.2
21-1PROVSTJOHNKillSoheila Cirelliset Martina Capponcelli+2.5
31-2STJOHNPROVKillMacy Taylor+2.6
42-2PROVSTJOHNKillLejla HadÅŸiredÅŸepovicset Rashanny Solano Smith+2.5
52-3STJOHNPROVServe errSt. John's (NY)+2.6
63-3PROVSTJOHNKillCarola Tesoroset Maggie Carcillo+2.6
73-4STJOHNPROVKillTori Otterset Miller McDonald+2.7
83-5PROVPROVKillLyric Berry+3.4
94-5PROVSTJOHNServe errProvidence+2.6
105-5STJOHNSTJOHNAceSt. John's (NY)+3.4
115-6STJOHNPROVKillShea Dupuisset Sarah Musial+2.8
126-6PROVSTJOHNKillCarola Tesoroset Martina Capponcelli+2.8
136-7STJOHNPROVServe errSt. John's (NY)+2.9
146-8PROVPROVBlockedLejla HadÅŸiredÅŸepovicblk Aubrey Easterwood, Shea Dupuis+3.6
157-8PROVSTJOHN×3Serve errProvidence+2.8
168-8STJOHNSTJOHN×3KillSoheila Cirelliset Martina Capponcelli+3.7
179-8STJOHN
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+3.8
189-9STJOHNPROVKillAubrey Easterwoodset Shea Dupuis+3.0
1910-9PROVSTJOHN×4KillSoheila Cirelliset Martina Capponcelli+3.1
2011-9STJOHNSTJOHN×4AceSt. John's (NY)+3.9
2112-9STJOHNSTJOHN×4AceSt. John's (NY)aced Macy Taylor+3.7
2213-9STJOHNSTJOHN×4BlockedTori Otterblk Teodora Stamenkovic, Lejla HadÅŸiredÅŸepovic+3.3
2313-10STJOHNPROVAttack errKendall Whiteset Maggie Carcillo+2.3
2413-11PROVPROVKillLyla Buserset Ava Dyer+3.4
2514-11PROVSTJOHN×3KillLejla HadÅŸiredÅŸepovicset Rashanny Solano Smith+3.1
2615-11STJOHNSTJOHN×3KillKendall White+3.5
2716-11STJOHNSTJOHN×3KillCarola Tesoroset Maggie Carcillo+2.9
2816-12STJOHNPROVKillLyla Buserset Miller McDonald+1.8
2916-13PROVPROVAttack errCarola Tesoro+2.9
3017-13PROVSTJOHNServe errProvidence+2.9
3117-14STJOHNPROVBlockedCarola Tesoroblk Tori Otter, Lyric Berry+2.3
3218-14PROVSTJOHNServe errProvidence+2.9
3319-14STJOHNSTJOHNAttack errLyla Buser+2.9
3419-15STJOHNPROV×3KillShea Dupuisset Sarah Musial+1.6
3519-16PROVPROV×3Attack errSoheila Cirelli+2.8
3619-17PROVPROV×3BlockedSoheila Cirelliblk Macy Taylor, Lyric Berry+3.9
3720-17PROVSTJOHNKillChloe' Bellset Martina Capponcelli+3.9
3821-17STJOHNSTJOHNKillChloe' Bell+3.9
3921-18STJOHNPROVBlockedSoheila Cirelliblk Macy Taylor+2.0
4021-19PROVPROVKillAubrey Easterwoodset Sarah Musial+3.9
4122-19PROVSTJOHNKillLejla HadÅŸiredÅŸepovicset Martina Capponcelli+4.4
4223-19STJOHNSTJOHNKillLejla HadÅŸiredÅŸepovicset Martina Capponcelli+3.8
4323-20STJOHNPROVKillMacy Taylorset Sarah Musial+1.5
4424-20PROVSTJOHNKillLejla HadÅŸiredÅŸepovicset Martina Capponcelli+2.7
4524-21STJOHNPROV×3KillMacy Taylorset Miller McDonald+0.9
4624-22PROVPROV×3BlockedKendall Whiteblk Aubrey Easterwood, Lyla Buser+2.5
4724-23PROVPROV×3AceProvidenceaced Carola Tesoro+5.6
4825-23PROVSTJOHNKillLejla HadÅŸiredÅŸepovicset Rashanny Solano Smith+10.1

Score shown after each rally, St. John's (NY) first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).