Final · 4 setsSun, Oct 25, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Providence def. UConn 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Providence 68.7% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 25, 2:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Providence beat visiting UConn 3-1 (28-26, 18-25, 25-22, 25-23) on Sun, Oct 25, 2026. Tori Otter led Providence with 11 kills; UConn's Sydney Borowy had a match-high 16.

Data through · final Oct 25

Set1234Sets
UCONN262522231
PROV281825253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Providence won it at the net: 12 blocks, led by Aubrey Easterwood.

3 stretches decided it. Percentages are Providence's RallyIQ win probability before and after each. Pre-match, RallyIQ had Providence at 69%.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 1 · UConn 26–25 Providence

    Down 25–26, Providence scored 3 straight to lead 28–26.

    Providence 58% → 82%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 4 · UConn 15–20 Providence

    Down 15–20, UConn scored 7 straight to lead 22–20.

    Providence 98% → 69%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 4 · UConn 23–21 Providence

    Providence closed it, 4 of the final 4 rallies, to take the set 25–23 and win the match 3–1.

    Providence 67% → >99%

Providence above 50UConn belowMax swing 10.7%

UConnProvidence

Sideout %
UConn 50.5·Providence 50.5
Break %
UConn 49.5·Providence 49.5
Hitting
UConn .183·Providence .262
Longest run
UConn 7·Providence 6
Blocks
UConn 5·Providence 120 BS · 10 BA vs 2 BS · 20 BA

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Providence above 50 · UConn below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+10.7% PROVrally 192 · set 4

Biggest swing: 10.7% to Providence — set 4, UCONN 23-24 PROV. Attack error by Maja Daca. PROV win probability 79% → 90%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

UCONN 31.4%68.6% PROV

UConn wins

3-0
6.1%
3-1
11.1%
3-2
14.2%

Providence wins

3-0
22.3%
3-1
26.3%
3-2
20.0%
UCONN break %
41.0% vs this opp
PROV break %
44.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Maja DacaAttack error+10.7%

    Attack error by Maja Daca

    Set 4 · UCONN 23-24 PROV · PROV 79% → 90%

  2. 02
    Shea DupuisKill+9.8%

    Kill by Shea Dupuis (set by Sarah Musial)

    Set 4 · UCONN 23-25 PROV · PROV 90% → 100%

  3. 03

    Kill by Helena Einarsdottir (set by Audrey Jensen)

    Set 1 · UCONN 26-25 PROV · UCONN 32% → 42%

  4. 04
    Lyric BerryKill+8.9%

    Kill by Lyric Berry

    Set 1 · UCONN 24-25 PROV · PROV 65% → 74%

  5. 05
    Sydney BorowyAttack error+8.9%

    Attack error by Sydney Borowy

    Set 1 · UCONN 26-27 PROV · PROV 65% → 74%

  6. 06
    ProvidenceAce+8.6%

    Providence ace on Hazuna Akishige

    Set 4 · UCONN 23-23 PROV · PROV 71% → 79%

  7. 07
    Jordyn HughesAttack error+8.1%

    Attack error by Jordyn Hughes

    Set 1 · UCONN 26-28 PROV · PROV 74% → 82%

  8. 08
    ProvidenceAce+7.1%

    Providence ace on Sydney Borowy

    Set 1 · UCONN 23-23 PROV · PROV 58% → 65%

Box score

Official NCAA box

UConnaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
410531.16102312102113
49424.20800020031.510.5
49424.2080000002110
46824-.0830211300008
4012-.5002221600002
4001.000111810001
416534.3240017102117
4000–032000003
4000–6201440002
4102.5002001500001
25111.36400030010.55.5
Team totals5628153.183491210708010596
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
410013.7690330016417
411223.3910001004213
410129.31001213102112
48120.3500002004210
45529.000111741228
4001.0002113700001
45324.083000500216
4000–4111820001
4001.0001703700000
1001.000010010001
Team totals4912141.2624381360122201296

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 7 UCONN · PROV 6

Set 1

26-28

Longest run 4 UCONNPROV 3

Set 2

25-18

Longest run 4 UCONNPROV 3

Set 3

22-25

Longest run 5 UCONNPROV 6

Set 4

23-25

Longest run 7 UCONNPROV 4

Bars above the line = Providence leads, below = UConn leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

UConn

SlotSideout %Break %
1
53%9/17
30%3/10
2
50%9/18
47%8/17
3
69%9/13
36%5/14
4
43%9/21
64%16/25
5
43%6/14
61%14/23
6
50%6/12
25%2/8
All
51%48/95
49%48/97

Providence

SlotSideout %Break %
1
64%9/14
53%9/17
2
69%9/13
50%9/18
3
50%9/18
40%6/15
4
33%9/27
50%9/18
5
47%7/15
50%7/14
6
60%6/10
54%7/13
All
51%49/97
49%47/95

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

192 rallies

#UCONN-PROVSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1PROVPROVAttack errHelena Einarsdottir+2.1
20-2PROVPROVBlockedMaja Dacablk Aubrey Easterwood, Tori Otter+2.0
31-2PROVUCONNServe errProvidence+1.5
41-3UCONNPROVKillTori Otterset Miller McDonald+1.5
52-3PROVUCONNKillCourtney Graysonset Audrey Jensen+1.5
62-4UCONNPROV×3KillTori Otterset Miller McDonald+1.5
72-5PROVPROV×3AceProvidence+2.0
82-6PROVPROV×3Attack errCourtney Grayson+1.8
93-6PROVUCONN×4Serve errProvidence+1.2
104-6UCONNUCONN×4AceMaggie Carleyaced Macy Taylor+1.9
115-6UCONNUCONN×4KillSydney Borowyset Audrey Jensen+2.2
126-6UCONNUCONN×4KillSydney Borowyset Audrey Jensen+2.5
136-7UCONNPROVServe errUConn+1.8
146-8PROVPROVBlockedSydney Borowyblk Lyric Berry, Shea Dupuis+2.4
157-8PROVUCONN×4BlockedShea Dupuisblk Sydney Borowy, Jordyn Hughes+1.7
168-8UCONNUCONN×4Attack errShea Dupuis+2.6
179-8UCONNUCONN×4KillSydney Borowyset Audrey Jensen+2.8
1810-8UCONNUCONN×4AceAudrey Jensenaced Sophia Adkins+2.9
1910-9UCONNPROVServe errUConn+2.0
2011-9PROVUCONNKillSydney Borowyset Isabella Sohl+2.2
2111-10UCONNPROVKillLyric Berryset Sarah Musial+2.0
2212-10PROVUCONNKillMaja Dacaset Isabella Sohl+2.3
2312-11UCONNPROVBlockedHelena Einarsdottirblk Aubrey Easterwood, Macy Taylor+2.1
2413-11PROVUCONNServe errProvidence+2.4
2513-12UCONNPROV×3KillMacy Taylorset Miller McDonald+2.2
2613-13PROVPROV×3Attack errCourtney Grayson+3.2
2713-14PROVPROV×3KillAubrey Easterwoodset Miller McDonald+3.2
2814-14PROVUCONNKillCourtney Graysonset Audrey Jensen+2.4
2914-15UCONNPROVServe errUConn+2.4
3015-15PROVUCONNServe errProvidence+2.5
3115-16UCONNPROVServe errUConn+2.6
3216-16PROVUCONNServe errProvidence+2.6
3316-17UCONNPROVAttack errJordyn Hughes+2.7
3417-17PROVUCONNKillJordyn Hughesset Isabella Sohl+2.8
3518-17UCONNUCONNAttack errMacy Taylor+4.3
3618-18UCONNPROVKillLyric Berryset Sarah Musial+3.0
3718-19PROVPROVKillShea Dupuisset Sophia Adkins+4.3
3819-19PROVUCONNKillMaja Daca+3.2
3920-19UCONNUCONNAceHazuna Akishige+5.0
4020-20UCONNPROVKillShea Dupuisset Sarah Musial+3.5
4121-20PROVUCONNKillCourtney Graysonset Isabella Sohl+4.1
4222-20UCONNUCONNAceHelena Einarsdottiraced Ava Dyer+5.7
4322-21UCONNPROVKillAubrey Easterwoodset Miller McDonald+3.2
4423-21PROVUCONNKillMaja Dacaset Audrey Jensen+4.8
4523-22UCONNPROVKillTori Otterset Miller McDonald+3.3
4623-23PROVPROVAceProvidenceaced Sydney Borowy+7.1
4724-23PROVUCONNKillSydney Borowyset Audrey Jensen+7.0
4824-24UCONNPROVServe errUConn+7.0
4924-25PROVPROVKillLyric Berry+8.9
5025-25PROVUCONNKillSydney Borowyset Audrey Jensen+6.4
5126-25UCONNUCONNKillHelena Einarsdottirset Audrey Jensen+9.5
5226-26UCONNPROV×3KillLyric Berryset Jordyn Hughes+7.0
5326-27PROVPROV×3Attack errSydney Borowy+8.9
5426-28PROVPROV×3Attack errJordyn Hughes+8.1
Set 2
10-1UCONNPROVKillAubrey Easterwoodset Miller McDonald+1.3
20-2PROVPROVKillAubrey Easterwoodset Miller McDonald+1.7
31-2PROVUCONNKillJordyn Hughesset Isabella Sohl+1.3
41-3UCONNPROVKillTori Otterset Miller McDonald+1.3
52-3PROVUCONNKillHelena Einarsdottirset Isabella Sohl+1.3
62-4UCONNPROVAttack errHelena Einarsdottir+1.3
73-4PROVUCONNServe errProvidence+1.3
83-5UCONNPROVKillSophia Adkinsset Sarah Musial+1.3
94-5PROVUCONNServe errProvidence+1.3
104-6UCONNPROVAttack errAudrey Jensen+1.4
114-7PROVPROVKillShea Dupuisset Ava Dyer+1.7
125-7PROVUCONNKillSydney Borowyset Audrey Jensen+1.2
135-8UCONNPROVKillMacy Taylorset Ava Dyer+1.3
145-9PROVPROVKillTori Otterset Ava Dyer+1.6
156-9PROVUCONNKillJordyn Hughesset Audrey Jensen+1.0
166-10UCONNPROVKillAubrey Easterwoodset Miller McDonald+1.2
177-10PROVUCONN×4KillSydney Borowyset Isabella Sohl+1.0
188-10UCONNUCONN×4Attack errSophia Adkins+1.7
199-10UCONNUCONN×4KillMaja Dacaset Hazuna Akishige+2.0
2010-10UCONNUCONN×4KillJordyn Hughesset Isabella Sohl+2.3
2110-11UCONNPROVAttack errHelena Einarsdottir+1.7
2211-11PROVUCONN×4KillMaja Dacaset Isabella Sohl+1.8
2312-11UCONNUCONN×4AceHazuna Akishigeaced Sophia Adkins+2.6
2413-11UCONNUCONN×4KillMaja Dacaset Grace Maria+2.7
2514-11UCONNUCONN×4KillMaja Dacaset Isabella Sohl+2.7
2614-12UCONNPROVKillTori Otterset Miller McDonald+1.7
2715-12PROVUCONN×4KillHelena Einarsdottirset Isabella Sohl+2.1
2816-12UCONNUCONN×4BlockedSophia Adkinsblk Maja Daca, Courtney Grayson+2.5
2917-12UCONNUCONN×4Attack errSophia Adkins+2.1
3018-12UCONNUCONN×4KillCourtney Grayson+1.6
3118-13UCONNPROV×3Attack errMaja Daca+0.8
3218-14PROVPROV×3KillMacy Taylorset Sarah Musial+1.5
3318-15PROVPROV×3AceProvidenceaced Hazuna Akishige+2.0
3419-15PROVUCONN×4KillCourtney Graysonset Audrey Jensen+2.0
3520-15UCONNUCONN×4AceMaja Dacaaced Fielding Mayhugh+2.1
3621-15UCONNUCONN×4AceMaja Daca+1.4
3722-15UCONNUCONN×4KillHelena Einarsdottirset Audrey Jensen+0.7
3822-16UCONNPROVKillLyric Berryset Sarah Musial+0.2
3923-16PROVUCONNKillSydney Borowyset Audrey Jensen+0.4
4024-16UCONNUCONNAceMaggie Carley+0.2
4124-17UCONNPROVKillMacy Taylorset Sarah Musial·
4224-18PROVPROVKillAubrey Easterwoodset Miller McDonald+0.1
4325-18PROVUCONNKillSydney Borowyset Audrey Jensen+0.1
Set 3
11-0PROVUCONNKillSydney Borowyset Audrey Jensen+2.4
21-1UCONNPROV×5KillTori Otterset Miller McDonald+2.3
31-2PROVPROV×5BlockedJordyn Hughesblk Aubrey Easterwood, Tori Otter+3.1
41-3PROVPROV×5KillAubrey Easterwoodset Miller McDonald+2.9
51-4PROVPROV×5Attack errHelena Einarsdottir+2.7
61-5PROVPROV×5Attack errHelena Einarsdottir+2.4
72-5PROVUCONNKillSydney Borowyset Hazuna Akishige+1.6
83-5UCONNUCONNAttack errTori Otter+2.6
93-6UCONNPROVKillAubrey Easterwoodset Miller McDonald+2.0
104-6PROVUCONN×3Serve errProvidence+2.0
115-6UCONNUCONN×3BlockedTori Otterblk Courtney Grayson, Maja Daca+3.1
126-6UCONNUCONN×3KillHelena Einarsdottirset Hazuna Akishige+3.4
136-7UCONNPROV×6KillTori Otterset Miller McDonald+2.5
146-8PROVPROV×6KillSophia Adkinsset Sarah Musial+3.3
156-9PROVPROV×6KillLyric Berryset Sarah Musial+3.0
166-10PROVPROV×6BlockedHelena Einarsdottirblk Sophia Adkins, Lyric Berry+2.7
176-11PROVPROV×6KillSophia Adkinsset Sarah Musial+2.2
186-12PROVPROV×6KillLyric Berry+1.8
197-12PROVUCONN×4KillMaja Dacaset Isabella Sohl+1.0
208-12UCONNUCONN×4KillCourtney Graysonset Hazuna Akishige+1.9
219-12UCONNUCONN×4AceHelena Einarsdottiraced Sophia Adkins+2.4
2210-12UCONNUCONN×4Serve errUConn+3.0
2310-13UCONNPROVServe errUConn+2.5
2410-14PROVPROVKillMacy Taylorset Sarah Musial+2.9
2511-14PROVUCONNKillHelena Einarsdottirset Audrey Jensen+1.8
2611-15UCONNPROVKillMacy Taylorset Sarah Musial+2.1
2711-16PROVPROVKillMacy Taylorset Ava Dyer+2.3
2812-16PROVUCONN×3KillCourtney Graysonset Audrey Jensen+1.3
2913-16UCONNUCONN×3AceMaggie Carleyaced Sophia Adkins+2.5
3014-16UCONNUCONN×3KillSydney Borowyset Audrey Jensen+3.3
3114-17UCONNPROV×4KillMacy Taylorset Sarah Musial+2.8
3214-18PROVPROV×4Attack errSydney Borowy+3.1
3314-19PROVPROV×4BlockedSydney Borowyblk Aubrey Easterwood, Tori Otter+2.3
3414-20PROVPROV×4AceProvidenceaced Hazuna Akishige+1.4
3515-20PROVUCONN×5Serve errProvidence+0.6
3616-20UCONNUCONN×5KillSydney Borowyset Hazuna Akishige+1.4
3717-20UCONNUCONN×5KillJordyn Hughes+2.3
3818-20UCONNUCONN×5Bad setMacy Taylor+3.4
3919-20UCONNUCONN×5KillSydney Borowyset Isabella Sohl+4.9
4019-21UCONNPROVServe errUConn+4.4
4120-21PROVUCONNServe errProvidence+3.8
4220-22UCONNPROVKillTori Otterset Miller McDonald+4.9
4321-22PROVUCONNKillMaja Dacaset Isabella Sohl+4.0
4421-23UCONNPROVKillTori Otterset Miller McDonald+5.5
4521-24PROVPROVBlockedMaja Dacablk Shea Dupuis, Lyric Berry+5.1
4622-24PROVUCONNServe errProvidence+1.5
4722-25UCONNPROVKillShea Dupuisset Sarah Musial+3.3
Set 4
10-1UCONNPROVKillTori Otterset Miller McDonald+1.9
21-1PROVUCONNKillMaja Dacaset Hazuna Akishige+2.0
31-2UCONNPROVServe errUConn+1.9
42-2PROVUCONNKillSydney Borowyset Audrey Jensen+2.0
53-2UCONNUCONNBad setMiller McDonald+2.9
63-3UCONNPROVKillSophia Adkinsset Miller McDonald+2.0
74-3PROVUCONN×3KillJordyn Hughesset Audrey Jensen+2.2
85-3UCONNUCONN×3AceAudrey Jensen+3.1
96-3UCONNUCONN×3BlockedShea Dupuisblk Jordyn Hughes, Sydney Borowy+3.1
106-4UCONNPROV×3KillMacy Taylorset Sarah Musial+2.1
116-5PROVPROV×3KillLyric Berryset Sarah Musial+3.0
126-6PROVPROV×3AceProvidenceaced Maja Daca+3.1
137-6PROVUCONN×5KillHailey Maesset Isabella Sohl+2.4
148-6UCONNUCONN×5AceGrace Mariaaced Ava Dyer+3.3
159-6UCONNUCONN×5KillHailey Maesset Hazuna Akishige+3.4
1610-6UCONNUCONN×5KillJordyn Hughesset Isabella Sohl+3.2
1711-6UCONNUCONN×5KillHailey Maes+2.9
1811-7UCONNPROVKillMacy Taylorset Isabella Sohl+1.7
1911-8PROVPROVBlockedHailey Maesblk Macy Taylor, Aubrey Easterwood+2.8
2012-8PROVUCONNServe errProvidence+2.5
2112-9UCONNPROV×3KillAubrey Easterwoodset Sarah Musial+2.0
2212-10PROVPROV×3BlockedCourtney Graysonblk Aubrey Easterwood+3.2
2312-11PROVPROV×3Bad setIsabella Sohl+3.5
2413-11PROVUCONNKillCourtney Graysonset Isabella Sohl+2.9
2513-12UCONNPROV×3KillAubrey Easterwoodset Miller McDonald+2.6
2613-13PROVPROV×3AceProvidenceaced Grace Maria+3.9
2713-14PROVPROV×3BlockedHelena Einarsdottirblk Aubrey Easterwood, Sophia Adkins+3.9
2814-14PROVUCONNServe errProvidence+2.9
2914-15UCONNPROV×4Serve errUConn+2.9
3014-16PROVPROV×4Attack errCourtney Grayson+3.8
3114-17PROVPROV×4AceProvidenceaced Hazuna Akishige+3.4
3214-18PROVPROV×4BlockedSydney Borowyblk Tori Otter, Lyric Berry+2.7
3315-18PROVUCONNKillCourtney Graysonset Audrey Jensen+1.5
3415-19UCONNPROVKillSophia Adkinsset Miller McDonald+2.0
3515-20PROVPROVBlockedJordyn Hughesblk Sophia Adkins+1.9
3616-20PROVUCONN×7KillIsabella Sohl+0.9
3717-20UCONNUCONN×7KillJordyn Hughesset Isabella Sohl+1.9
3818-20UCONNUCONN×7Attack errLyric Berry+3.0
3919-20UCONNUCONN×7KillHailey Maesset Hazuna Akishige+4.3
4020-20UCONNUCONN×7KillHailey Maesset Isabella Sohl+5.6
4121-20UCONNUCONN×7BlockedSophia Adkinsblk Hailey Maes, Jordyn Hughes+6.7
4222-20UCONNUCONN×7Attack errSophia Adkins+6.9
4322-21UCONNPROVAttack errMaja Daca+3.9
4423-21PROVUCONNKillJordyn Hughesset Isabella Sohl+5.8
4523-22UCONNPROV×4Serve errUConn+4.0
4623-23PROVPROV×4AceProvidenceaced Hazuna Akishige+8.6
4723-24PROVPROV×4Attack errMaja Daca+10.7
4823-25PROVPROV×4KillShea Dupuisset Sarah Musial+9.8

Score shown after each rally, UConn first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).