Final · 5 setsSun, Aug 30, 2026 · Neutral site

SMU def. UC Davis 3–2

SMU beat UC Davis 3-2 (27-25, 25-20, 20-25, 23-25, 15-12) on Sun, Aug 30, 2026 at a neutral site. Suli Davis led SMU with 16 kills; UC Davis' Isabella Umpierre had a match-high 18.

Data through · final Aug 30

Set12345Sets
SMU27252023153
UC DAV25202525122

Win probability

UC Davis above 50 · SMU below
S1S2S3S4S510050100+14.8% SMUrally 217 · set 5

Biggest swing: 14.8% to SMU — set 5, SMU 10-10 UC DAV. Point SMU (not logged in NCAA feed). UC DAV win probability 52% → 37%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

SMU 92.4%7.6% UC DAV

SMU wins

3-0
48.9%
3-1
31.1%
3-2
12.3%

UC Davis wins

3-0
1.0%
3-1
2.2%
3-2
4.4%
SMU break %
43.8% vs this opp
UC DAV break %
33.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Unlogged pointNCAA feed gap+14.8%

    Point SMU (not logged in NCAA feed)

    Set 5 · SMU 10-10 UC DAV · SMU 48% → 63%

  2. 02
    Favor AnyanwuAttack error+14.7%

    Attack error by Favor Anyanwu

    Set 5 · SMU 7-9 UC DAV · UC DAV 42% → 57%

  3. 03
    Gabi PlacideKill+14.5%

    Kill by Gabi Placide (set by Hannah Beauford)

    Set 5 · SMU 11-10 UC DAV · SMU 63% → 77%

  4. 04
    Mia StarrKill+12.8%

    Kill by Mia Starr (set by Ximena Cordero Barr)

    Set 5 · SMU 7-8 UC DAV · UC DAV 29% → 42%

  5. 05
    Breeze CzapinskiAttack error+11.8%

    Attack error by Breeze Czapinski

    Set 5 · SMU 12-10 UC DAV · SMU 77% → 89%

  6. 06

    Kill by Isabella Umpierre (set by Mia Starr)

    Set 5 · SMU 8-10 UC DAV · UC DAV 50% → 60%

  7. 07
    Brooke HibinoKill+10.1%

    Kill by Brooke Hibino (set by Mia Starr)

    Set 5 · SMU 7-7 UC DAV · UC DAV 19% → 29%

  8. 08

    Suli Davis stuffed by Mia Starr & Allie Caldwell

    Set 4 · SMU 23-25 UC DAV · UC DAV 16% → 25%

Box score

Official NCAA box

SMUaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
516947.14922074111.519.5
515533.3030145020218
58518.16710321174.512.5
511214.64310000010.511.5
5205.400440190153.55.5
5319.222003200214
5125-.200000200001
5000–3111710001
5000–000000000
5000–002500000
Team totals5624131.2445141449951613110
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
518739.28202810000020
514429.34502200010.516.5
5417.429501140031.56.5
5307.429000000214
5000–022220002
23411-.091000100003
571133-.121000001018
5000–112600001
5000–5111510001
49420.2500002010110
2215.200000000002
2000–000000000
Team totals6032151.18556916404265107

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 SMU · UC DAV 5

Set 1

27-25

Longest run 5 SMUUC DAV 4

Set 2

25-20

Longest run 3 SMUUC DAV 3

Set 3

20-25

Longest run 3 SMUUC DAV 3

Set 4

23-25

Longest run 4 SMUUC DAV 3

Set 5

15-12

Longest run 4 SMUUC DAV 5

Bars above the line = UC Davis leads, below = SMU leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

SMU

SlotSideout %Break %
1
67%12/18
29%4/14
2
60%12/20
50%12/24
3
56%10/18
42%8/19
4
62%8/13
40%6/15
5
67%8/12
38%5/13
6
57%8/14
20%2/10
All
61%58/95
39%37/95

UC Davis

SlotSideout %Break %
1
52%12/23
38%6/16
2
71%12/17
14%2/14
3
48%10/21
48%11/23
4
62%8/13
47%7/15
5
80%8/10
38%5/13
6
73%8/11
43%6/14
All
61%58/95
39%37/95

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

217 rallies

#SMU-UC DAVSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0UC DAVSMU×4KillNatalia Newsomeset Hannah Beauford+0.5
22-0SMUSMU×4KillSuli Davisset Victoria Harris+0.8
33-0SMUSMU×4Bad setMia Starr+0.6
44-0SMUSMU×4KillSuli Davisset Hannah Beauford+0.5
54-1SMUUC DAVServe errSMU+0.3
65-1UC DAVSMUServe errUC Davis+0.3
75-2SMUUC DAV×4Serve errSMU+0.3
85-3UC DAVUC DAV×4Attack errFavor Anyanwu+0.7
95-4UC DAVUC DAV×4Attack errFavor Anyanwu+0.8
105-5UC DAVUC DAV×4Attack errLevariya Pinder+1.1
116-5UC DAVSMUKillSuli Davisset Hannah Beauford+0.6
127-5SMUSMUKillSuli Davisset Hannah Beauford+0.9
137-6SMUUC DAVKillAlly Chandlerset Mia Starr+0.6
148-6UC DAVSMUServe errUC Davis+0.6
158-7SMUUC DAVKillBrooke Hibinoset Mia Starr+0.6
169-7UC DAVSMUBlockedBrooke Hibinoblk Hannah Beauford+0.6
179-8SMUUC DAV×3KillAllie Caldwellset Mia Starr+0.6
189-9UC DAVUC DAV×3Attack errSuli Davis+1.2
199-10UC DAVUC DAV×3KillIsabella Umpierreset Mia Starr+1.5
2010-10UC DAVSMUKillElle Vandewegheset Hannah Beauford+0.9
2111-10SMUSMUKillNatalia Newsomeset Victoria Harris+1.3
2211-11SMUUC DAV×3Serve errSMU+0.9
2311-12UC DAVUC DAV×3KillAlly Chandlerset Mia Starr+1.6
2411-13UC DAVUC DAV×3Attack errNatalia Newsome+1.9
2512-13UC DAVSMU×5KillNatalia Newsomeset Hannah Beauford+1.0
2613-13SMUSMU×5AceSMUaced Khloe Wong+1.7
2714-13SMUSMU×5Attack errIsabella Umpierre+1.5
2815-13SMUSMU×5BlockedIsabella Umpierreblk Suli Davis+1.3
2916-13SMUSMU×5KillSuli Davisset Victoria Harris+1.0
3016-14SMUUC DAVKillAlly Chandlerset Mia Starr+0.6
3117-14UC DAVSMUServe errUC Davis+0.6
3217-15SMUUC DAVKillGianna Boganset Mia Starr+0.6
3317-16UC DAVUC DAVAttack errSuli Davis+1.3
3418-16UC DAVSMUBad setMia Starr+0.9
3518-17SMUUC DAVKillBrooke Hibinoset Mia Starr+0.9
3619-17UC DAVSMUServe errUC Davis+1.0
3720-17SMUSMUAttack errBrooke Hibino+1.2
3820-18SMUUC DAVServe errSMU+0.6
3920-19UC DAVUC DAVAceUC Davisaced Victoria Harris+1.5
4021-19UC DAVSMUKillGabi Placideset Suli Davis+1.2
4121-20SMUUC DAVKillIsabella Umpierreset Mia Starr+1.0
4221-21UC DAVUC DAVAceUC Davisaced Suli Davis+2.6
4322-21UC DAVSMUKillNatalia Newsomeset Hannah Beauford+1.8
4422-22SMUUC DAVKillIsabella Umpierreset Mia Starr+1.9
4522-23UC DAVUC DAVAttack errLevariya Pinder+4.3
4623-23UC DAVSMUKillSuli Davisset Hannah Beauford+2.5
4724-23SMUSMUKillFavor Anyanwuset Hannah Beauford+4.5
4824-24SMUUC DAVKillGianna Boganset Mia Starr+2.7
4925-24UC DAVSMUBlockedGianna Boganblk Favor Anyanwu, Elle Vandeweghe+2.7
5025-25SMUUC DAVServe errSMU+2.7
5126-25UC DAVSMUKillSuli Davisset Hannah Beauford+2.7
5227-25SMUSMUAttack errMia Starr+3.4
Set 2
11-0SMUSMUAttack errGianna Bogan+0.6
22-0SMUSMUKillSuli Davisset Hannah Beauford+0.5
32-1SMUUC DAVServe errSMU+0.3
43-1UC DAVSMUAttack errIsabella Umpierre+0.3
53-2SMUUC DAVKillAlly Chandlerset Mia Starr+0.3
64-2UC DAVSMUAttack errGianna Bogan+0.3
74-3SMUUC DAVKillAlly Chandlerset Mia Starr+0.4
85-3UC DAVSMUKillFavor Anyanwuset Hannah Beauford+0.3
95-4SMUUC DAVKillAlly Chandlerset Mia Starr+0.4
106-4UC DAVSMUKillGabi Placideset Hannah Beauford+0.3
117-4SMUSMUBlockedIsabella Umpierreblk Gabi Placide+0.5
127-5SMUUC DAVServe errSMU+0.3
138-5UC DAVSMU×3KillGabi Placideset Hannah Beauford+0.3
149-5SMUSMU×3BlockedIsabella Umpierreblk Elle Vandeweghe, Natalia Newsome+0.4
1510-5SMUSMU×3KillGabi Placideset Hannah Beauford+0.3
1610-6SMUUC DAVKillIsabella Umpierreset Mia Starr+0.2
1711-6UC DAVSMUKillGabi Placideset Hannah Beauford+0.2
1811-7SMUUC DAVKillGianna Boganset Mia Starr+0.2
1912-7UC DAVSMUServe errUC Davis+0.2
2013-7SMUSMUAttack errGianna Bogan+0.2
2113-8SMUUC DAVKillAlly Chandlerset Mia Starr+0.1
2213-9UC DAVUC DAVAttack errSuli Davis+0.2
2314-9UC DAVSMU×3Serve errUC Davis+0.2
2415-9SMUSMU×3KillSuli Davis+0.2
2516-9SMUSMU×3BlockedBreeze Czapinskiblk Favor Anyanwu+0.1
2616-10SMUUC DAV×3KillAlly Chandlerset Mia Starr+0.1
2716-11UC DAVUC DAV×3Attack errSuli Davis+0.1
2816-12UC DAVUC DAV×3KillBrooke Hibinoset Mia Starr+0.2
2917-12UC DAVSMU×3BlockedBrooke Hibinoblk Favor Anyanwu, Hannah Beauford+0.2
3018-12SMUSMU×3AceSMUaced Ximena Cordero Barr+0.2
3119-12SMUSMU×3Attack errBrooke Hibino+0.1
3219-13SMUUC DAVKillAlly Chandlerset Mia Starr·
3319-14UC DAVUC DAVBlockedGabi Placideblk Allie Caldwell, Mia Starr+0.1
3420-14UC DAVSMUKillGabi Placideset Hannah Beauford+0.1
3521-14SMUSMUKillGabi Placideset Hannah Beauford+0.1
3621-15SMUUC DAVKillDemi Coleset Mia Starr·
3722-15UC DAVSMUKillHannah Beaufordset Natalia Newsome·
3822-16SMUUC DAVKillDemi Coleset Mia Starr·
3923-16UC DAVSMUKillElle Vandewegheset Hannah Beauford·
4023-17SMUUC DAVServe errSMU·
4124-17UC DAVSMUKillLevariya Pinderset Hannah Beauford·
4224-18SMUUC DAV×3KillAlly Chandlerset Mia Starr·
4324-19UC DAVUC DAV×3AceUC Davis·
4424-20UC DAVUC DAV×3Attack errSuli Davis·
4525-20UC DAVSMUServe errUC Davis·
Set 3
11-0UC DAVSMUKillSuli Davisset Victoria Harris+0.2
21-1SMUUC DAVKillAlly Chandlerset Mia Starr+0.2
31-2UC DAVUC DAVBlockedElle Vandewegheblk Breeze Czapinski+0.3
42-2UC DAVSMUKillFavor Anyanwuset Hannah Beauford+0.2
52-3SMUUC DAVKillBreeze Czapinskiset Mia Starr+0.2
63-3UC DAVSMU×3KillSuli Davisset Hannah Beauford+0.2
74-3SMUSMU×3KillGabi Placide+0.3
85-3SMUSMU×3Attack errAlly Chandler+0.3
95-4SMUUC DAVKillAlly Chandlerset Mia Starr+0.2
105-5UC DAVUC DAVAceUC Davis+0.3
116-5UC DAVSMUBlockedBrooke Hibinoblk Hannah Beauford, Favor Anyanwu+0.2
127-5SMUSMUBlockedDemi Coleblk Gabi Placide+0.3
137-6SMUUC DAVKillMia Starrset Rachel Dunagan+0.2
148-6UC DAVSMUKillGabi Placideset Isabella Umpierre+0.2
158-7SMUUC DAV×3Serve errSMU+0.2
168-8UC DAVUC DAV×3KillBreeze Czapinski+0.4
178-9UC DAVUC DAV×3AceUC Davisaced Suli Davis+0.5
189-9UC DAVSMUKillElle Vandewegheset Hannah Beauford+0.3
199-10SMUUC DAVKillIsabella Umpierreset Mia Starr+0.3
2010-10UC DAVSMUAttack errIsabella Umpierre+0.3
2110-11SMUUC DAVKillBreeze Czapinskiset Mia Starr+0.3
2211-11UC DAVSMUServe errUC Davis+0.3
2312-11SMUSMUKillFavor Anyanwuset Hannah Beauford+0.4
2412-12SMUUC DAVServe errSMU+0.3
2513-12UC DAVSMUServe errUC Davis+0.3
2613-13SMUUC DAVKillIsabella Umpierreset Mia Starr+0.3
2713-14UC DAVUC DAVAttack errGabi Placide+0.6
2814-14UC DAVSMUKillGabi Placideset Hannah Beauford+0.3
2915-14SMUSMUKillHannah Beaufordset Suli Davis+0.5
3015-15SMUUC DAV×3KillIsabella Umpierreset Ximena Cordero Barr+0.3
3115-16UC DAVUC DAV×3Attack errSuli Davis+0.7
3215-17UC DAVUC DAV×3KillIsabella Umpierreset Mia Starr+0.7
3316-17UC DAVSMUKillNatalia Newsomeset Hannah Beauford+0.4
3416-18SMUUC DAVAttack errGabi Placide+0.5
3517-18UC DAVSMUServe errUC Davis+0.4
3617-19SMUUC DAV×3KillAllie Caldwellset Mia Starr+0.6
3717-20UC DAVUC DAV×3KillBreeze Czapinskiset Ximena Cordero Barr+0.9
3817-21UC DAVUC DAV×3AceUC Davis+0.7
3918-21UC DAVSMUAttack errBreeze Czapinski+0.3
4018-22SMUUC DAVKillBreeze Czapinskiset Mia Starr+0.5
4119-22UC DAVSMUServe errUC Davis+0.2
4219-23SMUUC DAVKillIsabella Umpierreset Mia Starr+0.5
4320-23UC DAVSMUKillSuli Davisset Hannah Beauford+0.2
4420-24SMUUC DAVKillMia Starrset Ximena Cordero Barr+0.4
4520-25UC DAVUC DAVAceUC Davisaced Suli Davis+0.2
Set 4
10-1SMUUC DAVKillIsabella Umpierreset Mia Starr+1.0
21-1UC DAVSMUKillNatalia Newsomeset Hannah Beauford+0.9
31-2SMUUC DAV×3KillBreeze Czapinskiset Mia Starr+1.0
41-3UC DAVUC DAV×3AceUC Davisaced Favor Anyanwu+1.8
51-4UC DAVUC DAV×3BlockedFavor Anyanwublk Brooke Hibino+2.0
62-4UC DAVSMUAttack errBrooke Hibino+1.1
73-4SMUSMUAttack errBrooke Hibino+1.8
83-5SMUUC DAVServe errSMU+1.3
94-5UC DAVSMUKillFavor Anyanwuset Hannah Beauford+1.1
104-6SMUUC DAVKillIsabella Umpierreset Mia Starr+1.3
114-7UC DAVUC DAVKillBrooke Hibino+2.2
125-7UC DAVSMUKillGabi Placideset Hannah Beauford+1.2
135-8SMUUC DAVServe errSMU+1.5
145-9UC DAVUC DAVKillIsabella Umpierreset Ximena Cordero Barr+2.4
156-9UC DAVSMUKillNatalia Newsomeset Hannah Beauford+1.2
166-10SMUUC DAVKillAllie Caldwellset Mia Starr+1.6
177-10UC DAVSMUAttack errIsabella Umpierre+1.2
187-11SMUUC DAVKillBreeze Czapinskiset Mia Starr+1.7
198-11UC DAVSMUKillNatalia Newsomeset Hannah Beauford+1.3
209-11SMUSMUKillSuli Davisset Hannah Beauford+2.2
219-12SMUUC DAVBlockedSuli Davisblk Mia Starr, Ally Chandler+1.8
2210-12UC DAVSMUKillFavor Anyanwuset Hannah Beauford+1.4
2311-12SMUSMUBlockedBrooke Hibinoblk Favor Anyanwu, Hannah Beauford+2.3
2411-13SMUUC DAVKillIsabella Umpierreset Mia Starr+1.8
2512-13UC DAVSMUBlockedBrooke Hibinoblk Favor Anyanwu, Hannah Beauford+1.4
2612-14SMUUC DAVKillBrooke Hibinoset Mia Starr+1.9
2713-14UC DAVSMUKillGabi Placideset Hannah Beauford+1.5
2813-15SMUUC DAVAttack errGabi Placide+2.0
2914-15UC DAVSMUKillNatalia Newsomeset Hannah Beauford+1.6
3014-16SMUUC DAVKillBreeze Czapinskiset Mia Starr+2.1
3114-17UC DAVUC DAVAttack errNatalia Newsome+3.4
3215-17UC DAVSMUKillGabi Placideset Hannah Beauford+1.6
3316-17SMUSMUAceSMUaced Khloe Wong+3.0
3416-18SMUUC DAVKillIsabella Umpierreset Mia Starr+2.4
3516-19UC DAVUC DAVAceUC Davisaced Suli Davis+3.7
3617-19UC DAVSMU×3Serve errUC Davis+1.7
3718-19SMUSMU×3Attack errAlly Chandler+3.3
3819-19SMUSMU×3Attack errAlly Chandler+3.6
3919-20SMUUC DAV×3KillAlly Chandlerset Mia Starr+2.7
4019-21UC DAVUC DAV×3KillBrooke Hibinoset Mia Starr+4.7
4119-22UC DAVUC DAV×3Attack errFavor Anyanwu+4.4
4220-22UC DAVSMU×4Serve errUC Davis+1.6
4321-22SMUSMU×4BlockedBrooke Hibinoblk Favor Anyanwu, Hannah Beauford+3.9
4422-22SMUSMU×4BlockedAlly Chandlerblk Favor Anyanwu, Suli Davis+5.0
4523-22SMUSMU×4KillSuli Davisset Hannah Beauford+5.2
4623-23SMUUC DAV×3Serve errSMU+3.1
4723-24UC DAVUC DAV×3KillMia Starrset Levariya Pinder+7.6
4823-25UC DAVUC DAV×3BlockedSuli Davisblk Mia Starr, Allie Caldwell+8.7
Set 5
10-1UC DAVUC DAVAttack errGabi Placide+8.5
21-1UC DAVSMUKillFavor Anyanwuset Hannah Beauford+4.8
32-1SMUSMUAttack errBreeze Czapinski+7.5
42-2SMUUC DAVKillAlly Chandlerset Mia Starr+5.0
53-2UC DAVSMUServe errUC Davis+4.6
63-3SMUUC DAVKillBreeze Czapinskiset Mia Starr+5.2
74-3UC DAVSMU×3KillNatalia Newsomeset Hannah Beauford+4.9
85-3SMUSMU×3Attack errBrooke Hibino+7.1
96-3SMUSMU×3KillSuli Davisset Hannah Beauford+5.6
106-4SMUUC DAVServe errSMU+3.1
117-4UC DAVSMUKillSuli Davisset Hannah Beauford+3.4
127-5SMUUC DAV×5KillIsabella Umpierreset Mia Starr+3.2
137-6UC DAVUC DAV×5KillIsabella Umpierreset Mia Starr+7.3
147-7UC DAVUC DAV×5KillBrooke Hibinoset Mia Starr+10.1
157-8UC DAVUC DAV×5KillMia Starrset Ximena Cordero Barr+12.8
167-9UC DAVUC DAV×5Attack errFavor Anyanwu+14.7
178-9UC DAVSMUServe errUC Davis+7.4
188-10SMUUC DAVKillIsabella Umpierreset Mia Starr+10.5
199-10UC DAVSMU×4Serve errUC Davis+7.8
2010-10SMU
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+14.8
2111-10SMUSMU×4KillGabi Placideset Hannah Beauford+14.5
2212-10SMUSMU×4Attack errBreeze Czapinski+11.8
2312-11SMUUC DAVKillIsabella Umpierreset Mia Starr+5.8
2413-11UC DAVSMUKillFavor Anyanwuset Hannah Beauford+7.8
2514-11SMUSMUKillGabi Placideset Favor Anyanwu+7.3
2614-12SMUUC DAVAttack errSuli Davis+1.6
2715-12UC DAVSMUKillNatalia Newsomeset Hannah Beauford+3.6

Score shown after each rally, SMU first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).