Final · 4 setsSat, Aug 29, 2026

AwayBIG-EAST

1:3

HomeAMERICA-EAST

New Hampshire def. Providence 3–1

(21-25, 25-8, 25-23, 25-13)

Set	1	2	3	4	Sets
PROV	25	8	23	13	1
UNH	21	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

UNH above 50 · PROV below

Biggest swing: 13.7% to New Hampshire — set 3, PROV 23-25 UNH. Kill by Emma Converse (set by Hady Pickard). UNH win probability 57% → 71%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

PROV 56.9%43.1% UNH

Providence wins

3-0

15.6%

3-1

21.6%

3-2

19.7%

New Hampshire wins

3-0

9.8%

3-1

15.9%

3-2

17.4%

PROV break %: 45.0% vs this opp
UNH break %: 43.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Emma ConverseKill+13.7%
Kill by Emma Converse (set by Hady Pickard)
Set 3 · PROV 23-25 UNH · UNH 57% → 71%
02
Sophia AdkinsAttack error+13.3%
Attack error by Sophia Adkins
Set 3 · PROV 23-24 UNH · UNH 44% → 57%
03
PROV serverAce+10.1%
Providence ace on Dylan Hunt
Set 3 · PROV 23-22 UNH · PROV 54% → 64%
04
PROV serverService error+7.8%
Providence service error
Set 3 · PROV 23-23 UNH · UNH 36% → 44%
05
PROV serverAce+7.5%
Providence ace on Emma Converse
Set 3 · PROV 21-21 UNH · PROV 46% → 54%
06
Emma ConverseKill+6.9%
Kill by Emma Converse (set by Jessica Shattles)
Set 3 · PROV 21-22 UNH · UNH 46% → 53%
07
Kaia EasterbrookKill+6.7%
Kill by Kaia Easterbrook (set by Miller McDonald)
Set 3 · PROV 22-22 UNH · PROV 47% → 54%
08
PROV serverService error+5.5%
Providence service error
Set 3 · PROV 19-21 UNH · UNH 53% → 58%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Providenceaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
21Sophia AdkinsOH	4	8	6	31	.065	0	1	3	4	1	0	0	0	9
0Aubrey EasterwoodMB	4	3	1	11	.182	0	1	1	0	0	0	5	2.5	6.5
27Kaia EasterbrookMB	4	5	0	9	.556	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	6
20Sarah MusialS	4	1	1	3	.000	15	2	3	5	0	0	0	0	3
15Macy TaylorOH	4	1	2	14	-.071	1	0	0	10	1	0	0	0	1
7Shea DupuisOH	3	2	3	18	-.056	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	2
9Tori OtterMB	4	6	0	13	.462	0	0	0	0	0	1	6	4	10
1Miller McDonaldS	4	0	0	1	.000	10	1	0	6	0	0	0	0	1
8Gwenyth KossOH	4	0	3	7	-.429	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	0	0
32Lyla BuserOH	3	2	1	7	.143	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
12Fielding MayhughOH	3	1	4	11	-.273	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	1
6Ava DyerL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	8	2	0	0	0	1
11Lyric BerryMB	1	0	2	2	-1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		29	23	127	.047	26	6	8	45	5	1	14	8	69

New Hampshirehome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
8Emma ConverseOH	4	20	4	42	.381	2	1	4	7	3	1	0.5	21.5
10Rachel GrierMB	4	12	3	24	.375	1	0	2	5	0	4	2	14
6Lucy ChertockOH	4	8	8	26	.000	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	8
22Jessica ShattlesS	4	3	1	6	.333	39	1	0	11	0	2	1	5
18Evelyn BrentonMB	4	3	3	10	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
17Olivia MauldingMB	1	0	2	4	-.500	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
20Hady PickardL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	6	3	3	21	0	0	0	3
3Dylan HuntOH	4	2	1	5	.200	2	0	1	6	1	0	0	2
0Vivien AffeldtL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	0
2Caitlin LeddyS	3	6	1	11	.455	1	0	0	4	0	1	0.5	6.5
19Varvara ZverevaMB	1	2	0	2	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team totals		56	23	130	.254	51	5	11	62	6	10	5	96

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 PROV · UNH 6

Set 1

25-21

Longest run 4 PROVUNH 5

Set 2

8-25

Longest run 1 PROVUNH 6

Set 3

23-25

Longest run 4 PROVUNH 5

Set 4

13-25

Longest run 3 PROVUNH 6

Bars above the line = New Hampshire leads, below = Providence leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Providence

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	45%9/20	43%6/14
2	33%8/24	33%4/12
3	47%7/15	38%5/13
4	54%7/13	46%6/13
5	55%6/11	22%2/9
6	50%6/12	33%3/9
All	45%43/95	37%26/70

New Hampshire

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	59%10/17	53%9/17
2	80%8/10	67%18/27
3	58%7/12	61%11/18
4	54%7/13	50%7/14
5	75%6/8	50%6/12
6	60%6/10	14%1/7
All	63%44/70	55%52/95

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

165 rallies

Rally log

#	PROV-UNH	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	PROV	PROV	Attack err	Olivia Maulding		+2.3
2	1-1	PROV	UNH	Serve err	PROV server		+1.9
3	1-2	UNH	UNH	Bad set	Kaia Easterbrook		+2.4
4	2-2	UNH	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Sarah Musial	+1.9
5	3-2	PROV	PROV	Ace	PROV server	aced Lucy Chertock	+2.4
6	3-3	PROV	UNH	Kill	Evelyn Brenton	set Jessica Shattles	+2.0
7	4-3	UNH	PROV	Kill	Shea Dupuis	set Sarah Musial	+2.0
8	4-4	PROV	UNH	Kill	Emma Converse	set Jessica Shattles	+2.0
9	5-4	UNH	PROV	Kill	Aubrey Easterwood	set Sarah Musial	+2.0
10	6-4	PROV	PROV	Kill	Aubrey Easterwood	set Miller McDonald	+2.5
11	6-5	PROV	UNH	Kill	Emma Converse	set Jessica Shattles	+2.0
12	6-6	UNH	UNH	Kill	Lucy Chertock	set Jessica Shattles	+2.6
13	7-6	UNH	PROV×3	Serve err	UNH server		+2.1
14	8-6	PROV	PROV×3	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Macy Taylor	+2.6
15	9-6	PROV	PROV×3	Attack err	Rachel Grier		+2.5
16	9-7	PROV	UNH	Kill	Lucy Chertock	set Jessica Shattles	+1.9
17	10-7	UNH	PROV	Attack err	Emma Converse		+2.0
18	10-8	PROV	UNH	Kill	Lucy Chertock	set Jessica Shattles	+1.9
19	11-8	UNH	PROV	Attack err	Lucy Chertock		+2.1
20	12-8	PROV	PROV	Kill	Kaia Easterbrook	set Sarah Musial	+2.4
21	12-9	PROV	UNH	Kill	Evelyn Brenton	set Jessica Shattles	+1.7
22	13-9	UNH	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Sarah Musial	+1.9
23	14-9	PROV	PROV	Kill	Kaia Easterbrook		+2.0
24	14-10	PROV	UNH×3	Kill	Evelyn Brenton	set Jessica Shattles	+1.3
25	14-11	UNH	UNH×3	Kill	Rachel Grier	set Jessica Shattles	+2.1
26	14-12	UNH	UNH×3	Attack err	Macy Taylor	blk Rachel Grier, Olivia Maulding	+2.6
27	15-12	UNH	PROV×4	Kill	Shea Dupuis	set Sarah Musial	+2.4
28	16-12	PROV	PROV×4	Ace	PROV server	aced Emma Converse	+2.6
29	17-12	PROV	PROV×4	Attack err	Olivia Maulding		+2.1
30	18-12	PROV	PROV×4	Kill	Sarah Musial	set Emma Converse	+1.5
31	18-13	PROV	UNH	Kill	Rachel Grier	set Jessica Shattles	+0.8
32	19-13	UNH	PROV	Serve err	UNH server		+1.2
33	19-14	PROV	UNH	Kill	Rachel Grier	set Jessica Shattles	+0.8
34	20-14	UNH	PROV	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+1.1
35	20-15	PROV	UNH	Attack err	Sophia Adkins		+0.7
36	21-15	UNH	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Miller McDonald	+1.0
37	22-15	PROV	PROV	Attack err	Lucy Chertock		+0.7
38	22-16	PROV	UNH×5	Attack err	Sophia Adkins		+0.2
39	22-17	UNH	UNH×5	Ace	UNH server	aced Sophia Adkins	+0.5
40	22-18	UNH	UNH×5	Attack err	Sophia Adkins		+1.0
41	22-19	UNH	UNH×5	Attack err	Sophia Adkins		+1.7
42	22-20	UNH	UNH×5	Kill	Lucy Chertock	set Jessica Shattles	+2.8
43	23-20	UNH	PROV	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+3.4
44	24-20	PROV	PROV	Ace	PROV server	aced Emma Converse	+2.5
45	24-21	PROV	UNH	Kill	Jessica Shattles	set Emma Converse	+0.6
46	25-21	UNH	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Sarah Musial	+1.4
Set 2
1	1-0	UNH	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Sarah Musial	+1.7
2	1-1	PROV	UNH×6	Serve err	PROV server		+1.8
3	1-2	UNH	UNH×6	Kill	Rachel Grier	set Jessica Shattles	+2.3
4	1-3	UNH	UNH×6	Ace	UNH server	aced Ava Dyer	+2.3
5	1-4	UNH	UNH×6	Attack err	Sarah Musial		+2.3
6	1-5	UNH	UNH×6	Kill	Dylan Hunt	set Hady Pickard	+2.2
7	1-6	UNH	UNH×6	Attack err	Shea Dupuis		+2.0
8	2-6	UNH	PROV	Attack err	Rachel Grier		+1.4
9	2-7	PROV	UNH×6	Kill	Emma Converse	set Jessica Shattles	+1.6
10	2-8	UNH	UNH×6	Attack err	Macy Taylor		+1.8
11	2-9	UNH	UNH×6	Kill	Emma Converse	set Caitlin Leddy	+1.5
12	2-10	UNH	UNH×6	Kill	Emma Converse	set Jessica Shattles	+1.3
13	2-11	UNH	UNH×6	Kill	Emma Converse	set Hady Pickard	+1.0
14	2-12	UNH	UNH×6	Kill	Emma Converse	set Hady Pickard	+0.7
15	3-12	UNH	PROV	Kill	Macy Taylor	set Sarah Musial	+0.4
16	3-13	PROV	UNH×4	Kill	Rachel Grier	set Jessica Shattles	+0.5
17	3-14	UNH	UNH×4	Kill	Rachel Grier	set Jessica Shattles	+0.5
18	3-15	UNH	UNH×4	Kill	Lucy Chertock	set Jessica Shattles	+0.3
19	3-16	UNH	UNH×4	Ace	UNH server	aced Fielding Mayhugh	+0.2
20	4-16	UNH	PROV	Serve err	UNH server		+0.1
21	4-17	PROV	UNH	Kill	Emma Converse	set Jessica Shattles	+0.1
22	5-17	UNH	PROV	Serve err	UNH server		+0.1
23	5-18	PROV	UNH	Kill	Emma Converse	set Jessica Shattles	+0.1
24	6-18	UNH	PROV	Attack err	Lucy Chertock	blk Tori Otter, Kaia Easterbrook	+0.0
25	6-19	PROV	UNH	Kill	Emma Converse	set Jessica Shattles	+0.1
26	7-19	UNH	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Sarah Musial	+0.0
27	7-20	PROV	UNH×4	Serve err	PROV server		+0.1
28	7-21	UNH	UNH×4	Attack err	Shea Dupuis		+0.0
29	7-22	UNH	UNH×4	Kill	Caitlin Leddy	set Hady Pickard	+0.0
30	7-23	UNH	UNH×4	Ace	UNH server	aced Ava Dyer	+0.0
31	8-23	UNH	PROV	Kill	Fielding Mayhugh	set Sarah Musial	+0.0
32	8-24	PROV	UNH	Attack err	Fielding Mayhugh		+0.0
33	8-25	UNH	UNH	Kill	Emma Converse	set Hady Pickard	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	PROV	UNH×5	Serve err	PROV server		+2.6
2	0-2	UNH	UNH×5	Kill	Caitlin Leddy		+3.3
3	0-3	UNH	UNH×5	Kill	Rachel Grier	set Jessica Shattles	+3.2
4	0-4	UNH	UNH×5	Attack err	Lyric Berry		+3.1
5	0-5	UNH	UNH×5	Attack err	Lyric Berry		+2.9
6	1-5	UNH	PROV	Attack err	Emma Converse		+2.0
7	1-6	PROV	UNH×4	Serve err	PROV server		+2.3
8	1-7	UNH	UNH×4	Bad set	Sarah Musial		+2.6
9	1-8	UNH	UNH×4	Attack err	Shea Dupuis	blk Rachel Grier, Emma Converse	+2.2
10	1-9	UNH	UNH×4	Attack err	Fielding Mayhugh	blk Rachel Grier, Jessica Shattles	+1.8
11	2-9	UNH	PROV	Attack err	Jessica Shattles		+1.1
12	2-10	PROV	UNH×3	Kill	Emma Converse	set Jessica Shattles	+1.4
13	2-11	UNH	UNH×3	Attack err	Fielding Mayhugh		+1.4
14	2-12	UNH	UNH×3	Kill	Lucy Chertock	set Jessica Shattles	+1.0
15	3-12	UNH	PROV×4	Kill	Lyla Buser	set Sarah Musial	+0.6
16	4-12	PROV	PROV×4	Attack err	Lucy Chertock	blk Aubrey Easterwood, Tori Otter	+1.0
17	5-12	PROV	PROV×4	Attack err	Rachel Grier		+1.3
18	6-12	PROV	PROV×4	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+1.6
19	6-13	PROV	UNH	Attack err	Fielding Mayhugh	blk Rachel Grier, Jessica Shattles	+1.7
20	7-13	UNH	PROV	Attack err	Lucy Chertock	blk Aubrey Easterwood, Tori Otter	+1.3
21	7-14	PROV	UNH	Kill	Jessica Shattles	set Emma Converse	+1.7
22	8-14	UNH	PROV	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+1.2
23	9-14	PROV	PROV	Attack err	Lucy Chertock	blk Tori Otter, Kaia Easterbrook	+2.0
24	9-15	PROV	UNH	Serve err	PROV server		+2.1
25	9-16	UNH	UNH	Kill	Dylan Hunt	set Jessica Shattles	+2.0
26	10-16	UNH	PROV	Serve err	UNH server		+1.1
27	11-16	PROV	PROV	Attack err	Evelyn Brenton		+1.9
28	11-17	PROV	UNH	Kill	Emma Converse	set Jessica Shattles	+2.0
29	12-17	UNH	PROV	Serve err	UNH server		+1.4
30	12-18	PROV	UNH	Kill	Emma Converse	set Jessica Shattles	+2.0
31	13-18	UNH	PROV×3	Kill	Lyla Buser	set Sarah Musial	+1.3
32	14-18	PROV	PROV×3	Attack err	Dylan Hunt	blk Aubrey Easterwood, Lyla Buser	+2.3
33	15-18	PROV	PROV×3	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Sarah Musial	+3.2
34	15-19	PROV	UNH	Kill	Jessica Shattles	set Dylan Hunt	+3.3
35	16-19	UNH	PROV×3	Kill	Aubrey Easterwood	set Sarah Musial	+2.5
36	17-19	PROV	PROV×3	Attack err	Lucy Chertock		+4.2
37	18-19	PROV	PROV×3	Ace	PROV server	aced Vivien Affeldt	+5.2
38	18-20	PROV	UNH	Kill	Rachel Grier	set Jessica Shattles	+5.1
39	19-20	UNH	PROV	Serve err	UNH server		+4.4
40	19-21	PROV	UNH	Serve err	PROV server		+5.5
41	20-21	UNH	PROV	Attack err	Lucy Chertock	blk Aubrey Easterwood, Tori Otter	+4.6
42	21-21	PROV	PROV	Ace	PROV server	aced Emma Converse	+7.5
43	21-22	PROV	UNH	Kill	Emma Converse	set Jessica Shattles	+6.9
44	22-22	UNH	PROV	Kill	Kaia Easterbrook	set Miller McDonald	+6.7
45	23-22	PROV	PROV	Ace	PROV server	aced Dylan Hunt	+10.1
46	23-23	PROV	UNH×3	Serve err	PROV server		+7.8
47	23-24	UNH	UNH×3	Attack err	Sophia Adkins		+13.3
48	23-25	UNH	UNH×3	Kill	Emma Converse	set Hady Pickard	+13.7
Set 4
1	0-1	UNH	UNH	Attack err	Aubrey Easterwood		+3.4
2	0-2	UNH	UNH	Attack err	Gwenyth Koss	blk Evelyn Brenton, Caitlin Leddy	+3.5
3	1-2	UNH	PROV×3	Attack err	Emma Converse	blk Aubrey Easterwood, Tori Otter	+2.7
4	2-2	PROV	PROV×3	Attack err	Evelyn Brenton		+3.5
5	3-2	PROV	PROV×3	Attack err	Evelyn Brenton		+3.5
6	3-3	PROV	UNH×3	Attack err	Sophia Adkins		+2.8
7	3-4	UNH	UNH×3	Kill	Caitlin Leddy	set Jessica Shattles	+3.7
8	3-5	UNH	UNH×3	Kill	Emma Converse	set Jessica Shattles	+3.7
9	4-5	UNH	PROV	Serve err	UNH server		+2.8
10	4-6	PROV	UNH	Kill	Caitlin Leddy	set Dylan Hunt	+3.0
11	5-6	UNH	PROV	Kill	Kaia Easterbrook	set Miller McDonald	+2.9
12	5-7	PROV	UNH	Bad set	Sophia Adkins		+3.1
13	5-8	UNH	UNH	Kill	Lucy Chertock		+3.8
14	6-8	UNH	PROV	Serve err	UNH server		+2.8
15	6-9	PROV	UNH	Kill	Rachel Grier	set Jessica Shattles	+3.1
16	7-9	UNH	PROV	Kill	Kaia Easterbrook	set Sarah Musial	+2.8
17	7-10	PROV	UNH	Kill	Lucy Chertock	set Jessica Shattles	+3.2
18	7-11	UNH	UNH	Attack err	Lyla Buser		+3.7
19	8-11	UNH	PROV	Attack err	Caitlin Leddy		+2.6
20	9-11	PROV	PROV	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+3.7
21	9-12	PROV	UNH×3	Kill	Varvara Zvereva	set Jessica Shattles	+3.4
22	9-13	UNH	UNH×3	Kill	Varvara Zvereva	set Miller McDonald	+3.9
23	9-14	UNH	UNH×3	Bad set	Miller McDonald		+3.4
24	10-14	UNH	PROV	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+2.2
25	10-15	PROV	UNH	Kill	Caitlin Leddy	set Jessica Shattles	+2.7
26	10-16	UNH	UNH	Ace	UNH server	aced Macy Taylor	+2.8
27	11-16	UNH	PROV	Serve err	UNH server		+1.6
28	11-17	PROV	UNH	Kill	Caitlin Leddy	set Jessica Shattles	+2.2
29	12-17	UNH	PROV	Attack err	Emma Converse	blk Tori Otter	+1.5
30	12-18	PROV	UNH	Kill	Rachel Grier	set Jessica Shattles	+2.1
31	12-19	UNH	UNH	Kill	Rachel Grier		+1.8
32	13-19	UNH	PROV	Serve err	UNH server		+0.9
33	13-20	PROV	UNH×6	Kill	Rachel Grier	set Jessica Shattles	+1.3
34	13-21	UNH	UNH×6	Kill	Emma Converse	set Rachel Grier	+0.9
35	13-22	UNH	UNH×6	Kill	Emma Converse	set Jessica Shattles	+0.4
36	13-23	UNH	UNH×6	Attack err	Gwenyth Koss		+0.2
37	13-24	UNH	UNH×6	Kill	Emma Converse	set Jessica Shattles	+0.0
38	13-25	UNH	UNH×6	Attack err	Gwenyth Koss		+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Providence first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.