FinalThu, Sep 17, 2026

AwayACC

#5SMUSMU

3:0

HomeAMERICAN

RICERice

SMU def. Rice 3–0

(25-17, 25-18, 25-17)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
SMU	25	25	25	3
RICE	17	18	17	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

RICE above 50 · SMU below

Biggest swing: 0.9% to Rice — set 2, SMU 1-4 RICE. Suli Davis stuffed by Stephanie Gutierrez & Zora Bello. RICE win probability 5% → 6%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

SMU 92.8%7.2% RICE

SMU wins

3-0

49.9%

3-1

31.0%

3-2

12.0%

Rice wins

3-0

0.9%

3-1

2.1%

3-2

4.2%

SMU break %: 42.1% vs this opp
RICE break %: 31.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Suli DavisAttack error+0.9%
Suli Davis stuffed by Stephanie Gutierrez & Zora Bello
Set 2 · SMU 1-4 RICE · RICE 5% → 6%
02
Suli DavisAttack error+0.8%
Suli Davis stuffed by Stephanie Gutierrez & Zora Bello
Set 2 · SMU 1-3 RICE · RICE 4% → 5%
03
Elle VandewegheAttack error+0.8%
Elle Vandeweghe stuffed by Sydnee Peterson
Set 2 · SMU 16-15 RICE · RICE 2% → 3%
04
Sydnee PetersonAttack error+0.8%
Sydnee Peterson stuffed by Hannah Beauford & Favor Anyanwu & Suli Davis
Set 2 · SMU 3-4 RICE · SMU 95% → 95%
05
Elle VandewegheKill+0.8%
Kill by Elle Vandeweghe (set by Hannah Beauford)
Set 2 · SMU 9-8 RICE · SMU 96% → 97%
06
SMU serverAce+0.8%
SMU ace on Campbell Love
Set 2 · SMU 5-5 RICE · SMU 95% → 96%
07
Suli DavisKill+0.8%
Kill by Suli Davis (set by Victoria Harris)
Set 1 · SMU 2-0 RICE · SMU 93% → 94%
08
Amalia SimmonsAttack error+0.7%
Amalia Simmons stuffed by Favor Anyanwu & Suli Davis
Set 2 · SMU 19-16 RICE · SMU 97% → 98%

Official NCAA box

Box score

SMUaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
25Suli DavisOH	3	13	7	33	.182	1	2	0	5	0	3	1.5	16.5
21Favor AnyanwuMB	3	4	1	10	.300	0	4	2	2	0	4	2	10
12Natalia NewsomeMB	3	7	0	9	.778	0	0	0	1	0	4	2	9
5Elle VandewegheMB	3	4	3	10	.100	0	0	0	2	0	2	1	5
11Hannah BeaufordS	3	3	1	6	.333	24	0	1	5	0	4	2	5
17Levariya PinderOH	3	0	0	4	.000	0	0	1	5	1	0	0	0
15Gabi PlacideOH	3	3	0	13	.231	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	3
2Sarah FrazeeL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	2	1	6	0	0	0	2
0Victoria HarrisL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	6	1	0	6	0	0	0	1
42Jadyn LivingsOH	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		35	12	86	.267	31	9	7	34	1	17	8.5	75

Ricehome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
13Stephanie GutierrezMB	3	7	1	13	.462	0	0	2	1	0	0	4	2	9
5Sydnee PetersonOH	3	3	5	21	-.095	0	0	1	4	2	3	0	3	6
21Arissa SmithMB	3	4	1	9	.333	0	0	1	1	0	1	1	1.5	5.5
12Ashlyn SeayOH	3	3	6	21	-.143	1	0	2	5	1	0	1	0.5	3.5
4Kellen DorotikOPP	2	3	4	10	-.100	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	3
3Kaia MateoS	2	0	0	0	–	8	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	0
22Amalia SimmonsMB	3	10	3	20	.350	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	1.5	11.5
18Zora BelloS	3	2	0	3	.667	17	1	1	2	0	0	2	1	4
9Jordan HummelL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	0
16Mari FuroyamaL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	4	2	0	0	0	0
25Maggie CroftMB	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6Campbell LoveL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
10Declan EastmanL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14Savannah SkopalS	1	0	0	0	–	2	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		32	20	97	.124	31	1	9	28	9	4	11	9.5	52

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 SMU · RICE 4

Set 1

25-17

Longest run 5 SMURICE 3

Set 2

25-18

Longest run 4 SMURICE 3

Set 3

25-17

Longest run 4 SMURICE 4

Bars above the line = Rice leads, below = SMU leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

SMU

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	80%8/10	33%3/9
2	54%7/13	53%8/15
3	70%7/10	63%12/19
4	75%6/8	45%5/11
5	100%6/6	54%7/13
6	71%5/7	17%1/6
All	72%39/54	49%36/73

Rice

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	54%7/13	30%3/10
2	39%7/18	36%4/11
3	50%7/14	42%5/12
4	40%6/15	22%2/9
5	83%5/6	0%0/6
6	71%5/7	17%1/6
All	51%37/73	28%15/54

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

127 rallies

Rally log

#	SMU-RICE	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	RICE	SMU×5	Kill	Natalia Newsome	set Hannah Beauford	+0.5
2	2-0	SMU	SMU×5	Kill	Suli Davis	set Victoria Harris	+0.8
3	3-0	SMU	SMU×5	Attack err	Kellen Dorotik		+0.6
4	4-0	SMU	SMU×5	Kill	Suli Davis		+0.5
5	5-0	SMU	SMU×5	Kill	Favor Anyanwu	set Hannah Beauford	+0.4
6	5-1	SMU	RICE	Kill	Kellen Dorotik	set Kaia Mateo	+0.2
7	5-2	RICE	RICE	Attack err	Elle Vandeweghe	blk Sydnee Peterson	+0.5
8	6-2	RICE	SMU×4	Kill	Suli Davis	set Hannah Beauford	+0.3
9	7-2	SMU	SMU×4	Attack err	Kellen Dorotik		+0.4
10	8-2	SMU	SMU×4	Attack err	Sydnee Peterson		+0.3
11	9-2	SMU	SMU×4	Attack err	Kellen Dorotik		+0.2
12	9-3	SMU	RICE×3	Kill	Sydnee Peterson	set Kaia Mateo	+0.1
13	9-4	RICE	RICE×3	Attack err	Favor Anyanwu	blk Sydnee Peterson	+0.2
14	9-5	RICE	RICE×3	Kill	Stephanie Gutierrez		+0.3
15	10-5	RICE	SMU	Serve err	RICE server		+0.2
16	10-6	SMU	RICE	Kill	Amalia Simmons	set Zora Bello	+0.2
17	10-7	RICE	RICE	Kill	Stephanie Gutierrez	set Zora Bello	+0.5
18	11-7	RICE	SMU×4	Attack err	Amalia Simmons		+0.3
19	12-7	SMU	SMU×4	Bad set	Zora Bello		+0.4
20	13-7	SMU	SMU×4	Ace	SMU server	aced Sydnee Peterson	+0.3
21	14-7	SMU	SMU×4	Ace	SMU server	aced Sydnee Peterson	+0.2
22	14-8	SMU	RICE	Kill	Amalia Simmons	set Zora Bello	+0.1
23	15-8	RICE	SMU	Serve err	RICE server		+0.1
24	15-9	SMU	RICE	Kill	Amalia Simmons	set Zora Bello	+0.1
25	15-10	RICE	RICE	Kill	Kellen Dorotik	set Kaia Mateo	+0.2
26	16-10	RICE	SMU	Kill	Elle Vandeweghe	set Hannah Beauford	+0.1
27	16-11	SMU	RICE	Kill	Ashlyn Seay	set Kaia Mateo	+0.1
28	17-11	RICE	SMU	Kill	Natalia Newsome	set Hannah Beauford	+0.1
29	18-11	SMU	SMU	Kill	Suli Davis	set Victoria Harris	+0.1
30	18-12	SMU	RICE	Kill	Kellen Dorotik	set Kaia Mateo	+0.0
31	19-12	RICE	SMU×3	Bad set	Kaia Mateo		+0.1
32	20-12	SMU	SMU×3	Kill	Favor Anyanwu		+0.1
33	21-12	SMU	SMU×3	Attack err	Sydnee Peterson		+0.0
34	21-13	SMU	RICE	Serve err	SMU server		+0.0
35	21-14	RICE	RICE	Ace	RICE server	aced Levariya Pinder	+0.0
36	22-14	RICE	SMU	Kill	Suli Davis	set Hannah Beauford	+0.0
37	22-15	SMU	RICE	Kill	Stephanie Gutierrez	set Zora Bello	+0.0
38	22-16	RICE	RICE	Kill	Amalia Simmons	set Zora Bello	+0.0
39	23-16	RICE	SMU	Kill	Suli Davis	set Hannah Beauford	+0.0
40	24-16	SMU	SMU	Kill	Natalia Newsome		+0.0
41	24-17	SMU	RICE	Attack err	Suli Davis	blk Ashlyn Seay, Amalia Simmons, Stephanie Gutierrez	+0.0
42	25-17	RICE	SMU	Attack err	Ashlyn Seay	blk Natalia Newsome, Hannah Beauford	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	SMU	RICE	Serve err	SMU server		+0.4
2	1-1	RICE	SMU	Kill	Suli Davis	set Hannah Beauford	+0.4
3	1-2	SMU	RICE×3	Kill	Stephanie Gutierrez	set Zora Bello	+0.4
4	1-3	RICE	RICE×3	Attack err	Suli Davis	blk Stephanie Gutierrez, Zora Bello	+0.8
5	1-4	RICE	RICE×3	Attack err	Suli Davis	blk Stephanie Gutierrez, Zora Bello	+0.9
6	2-4	RICE	SMU	Kill	Elle Vandeweghe	set Hannah Beauford	+0.5
7	3-4	SMU	SMU	Attack err	Sydnee Peterson	blk Hannah Beauford, Favor Anyanwu, Suli Davis	+0.8
8	3-5	SMU	RICE	Kill	Zora Bello		+0.5
9	4-5	RICE	SMU	Attack err	Ashlyn Seay		+0.4
10	5-5	SMU	SMU	Ace	SMU server	aced Campbell Love	+0.8
11	5-6	SMU	RICE	Kill	Ashlyn Seay	set Zora Bello	+0.5
12	6-6	RICE	SMU	Serve err	RICE server		+0.4
13	6-7	SMU	RICE	Serve err	SMU server		+0.5
14	7-7	RICE	SMU	Kill	Natalia Newsome	set Hannah Beauford	+0.5
15	7-8	SMU	RICE	Kill	Arissa Smith	set Zora Bello	+0.5
16	8-8	RICE	SMU	Serve err	RICE server		+0.5
17	9-8	SMU	SMU	Kill	Elle Vandeweghe	set Hannah Beauford	+0.8
18	9-9	SMU	RICE	Serve err	SMU server		+0.5
19	10-9	RICE	SMU	Kill	Suli Davis	set Hannah Beauford	+0.4
20	10-10	SMU	RICE	Kill	Amalia Simmons	set Zora Bello	+0.5
21	11-10	RICE	SMU	Kill	Elle Vandeweghe	set Hannah Beauford	+0.5
22	12-10	SMU	SMU	Attack err	Sydnee Peterson	blk Favor Anyanwu, Hannah Beauford	+0.7
23	12-11	SMU	RICE	Kill	Zora Bello	set Jordan Hummel	+0.4
24	13-11	RICE	SMU	Attack err	Stephanie Gutierrez		+0.4
25	14-11	SMU	SMU	Ace	SMU server	aced Team	+0.6
26	14-12	SMU	RICE	Kill	Stephanie Gutierrez	set Zora Bello	+0.3
27	15-12	RICE	SMU	Kill	Suli Davis	set Hannah Beauford	+0.3
28	15-13	SMU	RICE	Kill	Arissa Smith	set Zora Bello	+0.3
29	16-13	RICE	SMU	Attack err	Ashlyn Seay	blk Hannah Beauford, Natalia Newsome	+0.4
30	16-14	SMU	RICE	Kill	Amalia Simmons	set Zora Bello	+0.3
31	16-15	RICE	RICE	Attack err	Elle Vandeweghe	blk Sydnee Peterson	+0.8
32	17-15	RICE	SMU	Kill	Natalia Newsome	set Hannah Beauford	+0.5
33	17-16	SMU	RICE	Kill	Amalia Simmons	set Zora Bello	+0.5
34	18-16	RICE	SMU×4	Kill	Suli Davis	set Victoria Harris	+0.5
35	19-16	SMU	SMU×4	Attack err	Amalia Simmons	blk Favor Anyanwu, Suli Davis	+0.7
36	20-16	SMU	SMU×4	Ace	SMU server	aced Mari Furoyama	+0.5
37	21-16	SMU	SMU×4	Attack err	Ashlyn Seay		+0.2
38	21-17	SMU	RICE	Attack err	Suli Davis	blk Amalia Simmons, Stephanie Gutierrez	+0.1
39	22-17	RICE	SMU×3	Kill	Favor Anyanwu	set Hannah Beauford	+0.1
40	23-17	SMU	SMU×3	Ace	SMU server	aced Jordan Hummel	+0.1
41	24-17	SMU	SMU×3	Ace	SMU server	aced Team	+0.0
42	24-18	SMU	RICE	Kill	Stephanie Gutierrez	set Zora Bello	+0.0
43	25-18	RICE	SMU	Kill	Suli Davis	set Hannah Beauford	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	RICE	SMU	Kill	Natalia Newsome	set Hannah Beauford	+0.2
2	1-1	SMU	RICE	Kill	Amalia Simmons	set Zora Bello	+0.2
3	2-1	RICE	SMU×4	Attack err	Sydnee Peterson	blk Favor Anyanwu, Elle Vandeweghe	+0.2
4	3-1	SMU	SMU×4	Kill	Hannah Beauford	set Suli Davis	+0.2
5	4-1	SMU	SMU×4	Attack err	Arissa Smith		+0.2
6	5-1	SMU	SMU×4	Kill	Favor Anyanwu	set Hannah Beauford	+0.2
7	5-2	SMU	RICE	Attack err	Hannah Beauford	blk Arissa Smith	+0.1
8	6-2	RICE	SMU×3	Serve err	RICE server		+0.1
9	7-2	SMU	SMU×3	Attack err	Amalia Simmons		+0.1
10	8-2	SMU	SMU×3	Kill	Gabi Placide	set Hannah Beauford	+0.1
11	8-3	SMU	RICE	Kill	Amalia Simmons	set Zora Bello	+0.0
12	9-3	RICE	SMU×4	Serve err	RICE server		+0.0
13	10-3	SMU	SMU×4	Kill	Gabi Placide	set Hannah Beauford	+0.1
14	11-3	SMU	SMU×4	Ace	SMU server	aced Ashlyn Seay	+0.0
15	12-3	SMU	SMU×4	Ace	SMU server	aced Mari Furoyama	+0.0
16	12-4	SMU	RICE	Serve err	SMU server		+0.0
17	13-4	RICE	SMU	Serve err	RICE server		+0.0
18	13-5	SMU	RICE	Serve err	SMU server		+0.0
19	14-5	RICE	SMU	Kill	Jadyn Livings	set Victoria Harris	+0.0
20	14-6	SMU	RICE×3	Serve err	SMU server		+0.0
21	14-7	RICE	RICE×3	Attack err	Suli Davis	blk Amalia Simmons, Arissa Smith	+0.0
22	14-8	RICE	RICE×3	Kill	Amalia Simmons	set Mari Furoyama	+0.0
23	15-8	RICE	SMU	Serve err	RICE server		+0.0
24	15-9	SMU	RICE×4	Kill	Ashlyn Seay	set Kaia Mateo	+0.0
25	15-10	RICE	RICE×4	Attack err	Elle Vandeweghe		+0.1
26	15-11	RICE	RICE×4	Attack err	Suli Davis		+0.1
27	15-12	RICE	RICE×4	Kill	Sydnee Peterson	set Mari Furoyama	+0.2
28	16-12	RICE	SMU	Serve err	RICE server		+0.1
29	16-13	SMU	RICE	Kill	Arissa Smith	set Kaia Mateo	+0.1
30	17-13	RICE	SMU	Kill	Suli Davis	set Hannah Beauford	+0.1
31	18-13	SMU	SMU	Kill	Hannah Beauford		+0.1
32	18-14	SMU	RICE	Kill	Sydnee Peterson	set Kaia Mateo	+0.1
33	19-14	RICE	SMU	Kill	Gabi Placide	set Hannah Beauford	+0.1
34	19-15	SMU	RICE	Attack err	Suli Davis		+0.0
35	20-15	RICE	SMU	Attack err	Ashlyn Seay		+0.1
36	21-15	SMU	SMU	Attack err	Ashlyn Seay	blk Natalia Newsome, Elle Vandeweghe	+0.1
37	21-16	SMU	RICE	Kill	Stephanie Gutierrez	set Savannah Skopal	+0.0
38	22-16	RICE	SMU×3	Kill	Hannah Beauford	set Victoria Harris	+0.0
39	23-16	SMU	SMU×3	Kill	Suli Davis	set Victoria Harris	+0.0
40	24-16	SMU	SMU×3	Attack err	Kellen Dorotik	blk Natalia Newsome, Suli Davis	+0.0
41	24-17	SMU	RICE	Kill	Arissa Smith	set Savannah Skopal	+0.0
42	25-17	RICE	SMU	Kill	Natalia Newsome	set Hannah Beauford	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, SMU first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.