Win probability
No single rally moved win probability by a full point: SMU stayed the heavy favorite throughout.
Pre-match
Season fit · includes this match
SMU wins
Rice wins
- SMU break %
- 43.6% vs this opp
- RICE break %
- 32.1% vs this opp
Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.
Box score
Official NCAA box
| Player | S | K | E | TA | Hit% | AST | SA | SE | DIG | RE | BS | BA | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 13 | 7 | 33 | .182 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2.5 | 17.5 | |
| 3 | 4 | 1 | 10 | .300 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 10 | |
| 3 | 7 | 0 | 9 | .778 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 9 | |
| 3 | 4 | 3 | 10 | .100 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | |
| 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | .333 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 5 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 3 | 0 | 13 | .231 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team totals | 35 | 12 | 86 | .267 | 31 | 9 | 7 | 37 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 9.5 | 75 |
| Player | S | K | E | TA | Hit% | AST | SA | SE | DIG | RE | BS | BA | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 7 | 1 | 13 | .462 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 9 | |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 21 | -.095 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | |
| 3 | 4 | 1 | 9 | .333 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 5.5 | |
| 3 | 3 | 7 | 24 | -.167 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 3.5 | |
| 2 | 3 | 4 | 10 | -.100 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 8 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 10 | 2 | 19 | .421 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1.5 | 11.5 | |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | .667 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team totals | 32 | 20 | 99 | .121 | 31 | 1 | 9 | 28 | 9 | 4 | 11 | 9.5 | 52 |
Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.
Momentum
Point differential by rally
Set 1
25-17
Set 2
25-18
Set 3
25-17
Bars above the line = Rice leads, below = SMU leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.
Rotations
Sideout and break % by rotation slot
SMU
| Slot | Sideout % | Break % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 100%5/5 | 20%1/5 |
| 2 | 63%5/8 | 62%8/13 |
| 3 | 63%5/8 | 64%9/14 |
| 4 | 67%4/6 | 33%2/6 |
| 5 | 100%4/4 | 50%4/8 |
| 6 | 60%3/5 | 0%0/3 |
| All | 72%26/36 | 49%24/49 |
Rice
| Slot | Sideout % | Break % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45%5/11 | 20%1/5 |
| 2 | 38%5/13 | 17%1/6 |
| 3 | 56%5/9 | 50%5/10 |
| 4 | 40%4/10 | 29%2/7 |
| 5 | 100%3/3 | 0%0/4 |
| 6 | 100%3/3 | 25%1/4 |
| All | 51%25/49 | 28%10/36 |
Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.
Rally log
127 rallies
| # | SMU-RICE | Srv | Point | End | Player | Setter / blockers / passer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Set 1 | ||||||
| 1 | 1-0 | RICE | SMU×5 | Kill | Natalia Newsome | set Hannah Beauford |
| 2 | 2-0 | SMU | SMU×5 | Kill | Suli Davis | set Victoria Harris |
| 3 | 3-0 | SMU | SMU×5 | Attack err | Kellen Dorotik | |
| 4 | 4-0 | SMU | SMU×5 | Kill | Suli Davis | |
| 5 | 5-0 | SMU | SMU×5 | Kill | Favor Anyanwu | set Hannah Beauford |
| 6 | 5-1 | SMU | RICE | Kill | Kellen Dorotik | set Kaia Mateo |
| 7 | 5-2 | RICE | RICE | Blocked | Elle Vandeweghe | blk Sydnee Peterson |
| 8 | 6-2 | RICE | SMU×4 | Kill | Suli Davis | set Hannah Beauford |
| 9 | 7-2 | SMU | SMU×4 | Attack err | Kellen Dorotik | |
| 10 | 8-2 | SMU | SMU×4 | Attack err | Sydnee Peterson | |
| 11 | 9-2 | SMU | SMU×4 | Attack err | Kellen Dorotik | |
| 12 | 9-3 | SMU | RICE×3 | Kill | Sydnee Peterson | set Kaia Mateo |
| 13 | 9-4 | RICE | RICE×3 | Blocked | Favor Anyanwu | blk Sydnee Peterson |
| 14 | 9-5 | RICE | RICE×3 | Kill | Stephanie Gutierrez | |
| 15 | 10-5 | RICE | SMU | Serve err | Rice | |
| 16 | 10-6 | SMU | RICE | Kill | Amalia Simmons | set Zora Bello |
| 17 | 10-7 | RICE | RICE | Kill | Stephanie Gutierrez | set Zora Bello |
| 18 | 11-7 | RICE | SMU×4 | Attack err | Ashlyn Seay | |
| 19 | 12-7 | SMU | SMU×4 | Bad set | Zora Bello | |
| 20 | 13-7 | SMU | SMU×4 | Ace | SMU | aced Sydnee Peterson |
| 21 | 14-7 | SMU | SMU×4 | Ace | SMU | aced Sydnee Peterson |
| 22 | 14-8 | SMU | RICE | Kill | Amalia Simmons | set Zora Bello |
| 23 | 15-8 | RICE | SMU | Serve err | Rice | |
| 24 | 15-9 | SMU | RICE | Kill | Amalia Simmons | set Zora Bello |
| 25 | 15-10 | RICE | RICE | Kill | Kellen Dorotik | set Kaia Mateo |
| 26 | 16-10 | RICE | SMU | Kill | Elle Vandeweghe | set Hannah Beauford |
| 27 | 16-11 | SMU | RICE | Kill | Ashlyn Seay | set Kaia Mateo |
| 28 | 17-11 | RICE | SMU | Kill | Natalia Newsome | set Hannah Beauford |
| 29 | 18-11 | SMU | SMU | Kill | Suli Davis | set Victoria Harris |
| 30 | 18-12 | SMU | RICE | Kill | Kellen Dorotik | set Kaia Mateo |
| 31 | 19-12 | RICE | SMU×3 | Bad set | Kaia Mateo | |
| 32 | 20-12 | SMU | SMU×3 | Kill | Favor Anyanwu | |
| 33 | 21-12 | SMU | SMU×3 | Attack err | Sydnee Peterson | |
| 34 | 21-13 | SMU | RICE | Serve err | SMU | |
| 35 | 21-14 | RICE | RICE | Ace | Zora Bello | aced Levariya Pinder |
| 36 | 22-14 | RICE | SMU | Kill | Suli Davis | set Hannah Beauford |
| 37 | 22-15 | SMU | RICE | Kill | Stephanie Gutierrez | set Zora Bello |
| 38 | 22-16 | RICE | RICE | Kill | Amalia Simmons | set Zora Bello |
| 39 | 23-16 | RICE | SMU | Kill | Suli Davis | set Hannah Beauford |
| 40 | 24-16 | SMU | SMU | Kill | Natalia Newsome | |
| 41 | 24-17 | SMU | RICE | Blocked | Levariya Pinder | blk Ashlyn Seay, Amalia Simmons, Stephanie Gutierrez |
| 42 | 25-17 | RICE | SMU | Blocked | Ashlyn Seay | blk Natalia Newsome, Hannah Beauford |
| Set 2 | ||||||
| 1 | 0-1 | SMU | RICE | Serve err | SMU | |
| 2 | 1-1 | RICE | SMU | Kill | Suli Davis | set Hannah Beauford |
| 3 | 1-2 | SMU | RICE×3 | Kill | Stephanie Gutierrez | set Zora Bello |
| 4 | 1-3 | RICE | RICE×3 | Blocked | Suli Davis | blk Stephanie Gutierrez, Zora Bello |
| 5 | 1-4 | RICE | RICE×3 | Blocked | Suli Davis | blk Stephanie Gutierrez, Zora Bello |
| 6 | 2-4 | RICE | SMU | Kill | Elle Vandeweghe | set Hannah Beauford |
| 7 | 3-4 | SMU | SMU | Blocked | Sydnee Peterson | blk Hannah Beauford, Favor Anyanwu, Suli Davis |
| 8 | 3-5 | SMU | RICE | Kill | Zora Bello | |
| 9 | 4-5 | RICE | SMU | Attack err | Ashlyn Seay | |
| 10 | 5-5 | SMU | SMU | Ace | SMU | aced Campbell Love |
| 11 | 5-6 | SMU | RICE | Kill | Ashlyn Seay | set Zora Bello |
| 12 | 6-6 | RICE | SMU | Serve err | Rice | |
| 13 | 6-7 | SMU | RICE | Serve err | SMU | |
| 14 | 7-7 | RICE | SMU | Kill | Natalia Newsome | set Hannah Beauford |
| 15 | 7-8 | SMU | RICE | Kill | Arissa Smith | set Zora Bello |
| 16 | 8-8 | RICE | SMU | Serve err | Rice | |
| 17 | 9-8 | SMU | SMU | Kill | Elle Vandeweghe | set Hannah Beauford |
| 18 | 9-9 | SMU | RICE | Serve err | SMU | |
| 19 | 10-9 | RICE | SMU | Kill | Suli Davis | set Hannah Beauford |
| 20 | 10-10 | SMU | RICE | Kill | Amalia Simmons | set Zora Bello |
| 21 | 11-10 | RICE | SMU | Kill | Elle Vandeweghe | set Hannah Beauford |
| 22 | 12-10 | SMU | SMU | Blocked | Sydnee Peterson | blk Favor Anyanwu, Hannah Beauford |
| 23 | 12-11 | SMU | RICE | Kill | Zora Bello | set Jordan Hummel |
| 24 | 13-11 | RICE | SMU | Attack err | Stephanie Gutierrez | |
| 25 | 14-11 | SMU | SMU | Ace | SMU | |
| 26 | 14-12 | SMU | RICE | Kill | Stephanie Gutierrez | set Zora Bello |
| 27 | 15-12 | RICE | SMU | Kill | Suli Davis | set Hannah Beauford |
| 28 | 15-13 | SMU | RICE | Kill | Arissa Smith | set Zora Bello |
| 29 | 16-13 | RICE | SMU | Blocked | Ashlyn Seay | blk Hannah Beauford, Natalia Newsome |
| 30 | 16-14 | SMU | RICE | Kill | Amalia Simmons | set Zora Bello |
| 31 | 16-15 | RICE | RICE | Blocked | Elle Vandeweghe | blk Sydnee Peterson |
| 32 | 17-15 | RICE | SMU | Kill | Natalia Newsome | set Hannah Beauford |
| 33 | 17-16 | SMU | RICE | Kill | Amalia Simmons | set Zora Bello |
| 34 | 18-16 | RICE | SMU×4 | Kill | Suli Davis | set Victoria Harris |
| 35 | 19-16 | SMU | SMU×4 | Blocked | Amalia Simmons | blk Favor Anyanwu, Suli Davis |
| 36 | 20-16 | SMU | SMU×4 | Ace | SMU | aced Mari Furoyama |
| 37 | 21-16 | SMU | SMU×4 | Attack err | Ashlyn Seay | |
| 38 | 21-17 | SMU | RICE | Blocked | Suli Davis | blk Amalia Simmons, Stephanie Gutierrez |
| 39 | 22-17 | RICE | SMU×3 | Kill | Favor Anyanwu | set Hannah Beauford |
| 40 | 23-17 | SMU | SMU×3 | Ace | SMU | aced Jordan Hummel |
| 41 | 24-17 | SMU | SMU×3 | Ace | SMU | |
| 42 | 24-18 | SMU | RICE | Kill | Stephanie Gutierrez | set Zora Bello |
| 43 | 25-18 | RICE | SMU | Kill | Suli Davis | set Hannah Beauford |
| Set 3 | ||||||
| 1 | 1-0 | RICE | SMU | Kill | Natalia Newsome | set Hannah Beauford |
| 2 | 1-1 | SMU | RICE | Kill | Amalia Simmons | set Zora Bello |
| 3 | 2-1 | RICE | SMU×4 | Blocked | Sydnee Peterson | blk Favor Anyanwu, Elle Vandeweghe |
| 4 | 3-1 | SMU | SMU×4 | Kill | Hannah Beauford | set Suli Davis |
| 5 | 4-1 | SMU | SMU×4 | Attack err | Arissa Smith | |
| 6 | 5-1 | SMU | SMU×4 | Kill | Favor Anyanwu | set Hannah Beauford |
| 7 | 5-2 | SMU | RICE | Blocked | Hannah Beauford | blk Arissa Smith |
| 8 | 6-2 | RICE | SMU×3 | Serve err | Rice | |
| 9 | 7-2 | SMU | SMU×3 | Attack err | Amalia Simmons | |
| 10 | 8-2 | SMU | SMU×3 | Kill | Gabi Placide | set Hannah Beauford |
| 11 | 8-3 | SMU | RICE | Kill | Amalia Simmons | set Zora Bello |
| 12 | 9-3 | RICE | SMU×4 | Serve err | Rice | |
| 13 | 10-3 | SMU | SMU×4 | Kill | Gabi Placide | set Hannah Beauford |
| 14 | 11-3 | SMU | SMU×4 | Ace | SMU | aced Ashlyn Seay |
| 15 | 12-3 | SMU | SMU×4 | Ace | SMU | aced Mari Furoyama |
| 16 | 12-4 | SMU | RICE | Serve err | SMU | |
| 17 | 13-4 | RICE | SMU | Serve err | Rice | |
| 18 | 13-5 | SMU | RICE | Serve err | SMU | |
| 19 | 14-5 | RICE | SMU | Kill | Jadyn Livings | set Victoria Harris |
| 20 | 14-6 | SMU | RICE×3 | Serve err | SMU | |
| 21 | 14-7 | RICE | RICE×3 | Blocked | Suli Davis | blk Amalia Simmons, Arissa Smith |
| 22 | 14-8 | RICE | RICE×3 | Kill | Amalia Simmons | set Mari Furoyama |
| 23 | 15-8 | RICE | SMU | Serve err | Rice | |
| 24 | 15-9 | SMU | RICE×4 | Kill | Ashlyn Seay | set Kaia Mateo |
| 25 | 15-10 | RICE | RICE×4 | Attack err | Elle Vandeweghe | |
| 26 | 15-11 | RICE | RICE×4 | Attack err | Suli Davis | |
| 27 | 15-12 | RICE | RICE×4 | Kill | Sydnee Peterson | set Mari Furoyama |
| 28 | 16-12 | RICE | SMU | Serve err | Rice | |
| 29 | 16-13 | SMU | RICE | Kill | Arissa Smith | set Kaia Mateo |
| 30 | 17-13 | RICE | SMU | Kill | Suli Davis | set Hannah Beauford |
| 31 | 18-13 | SMU | SMU | Kill | Hannah Beauford | |
| 32 | 18-14 | SMU | RICE | Kill | Sydnee Peterson | set Kaia Mateo |
| 33 | 19-14 | RICE | SMU | Kill | Gabi Placide | set Hannah Beauford |
| 34 | 19-15 | SMU | RICE | Attack err | Suli Davis | |
| 35 | 20-15 | RICE | SMU | Attack err | Ashlyn Seay | |
| 36 | 21-15 | SMU | NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected. | |||
| 37 | 21-16 | SMU | RICE | Kill | Stephanie Gutierrez | set Savannah Skopal |
| 38 | 22-16 | RICE | SMU×3 | Kill | Hannah Beauford | set Victoria Harris |
| 39 | 23-16 | SMU | SMU×3 | Kill | Suli Davis | set Victoria Harris |
| 40 | 24-16 | SMU | SMU×3 | Blocked | Kellen Dorotik | blk Natalia Newsome, Suli Davis |
| 41 | 24-17 | SMU | RICE | Kill | Arissa Smith | set Savannah Skopal |
| 42 | 25-17 | RICE | SMU | Kill | Natalia Newsome | set Hannah Beauford |
Score shown after each rally, SMU first.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).