FinalFri, Sep 18, 2026

AwayBIG-EAST

0:3

HomeIVY-LEAGUE

Harvard def. Providence 3–0

(25-21, 25-21, 29-27)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
PROV	21	21	27	0
HARV	25	25	29	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

HARV above 50 · PROV below

Biggest swing: 6.0% to Harvard — set 1, PROV 21-23 HARV. Kill by Kayla Nwabueze (set by Sophia Wei). HARV win probability 62% → 68%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

PROV 42.2%57.8% HARV

Providence wins

3-0

9.5%

3-1

15.5%

3-2

17.2%

Harvard wins

3-0

16.1%

3-1

22.0%

3-2

19.7%

PROV break %: 43.5% vs this opp
HARV break %: 45.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Kayla NwabuezeKill+6.0%
Kill by Kayla Nwabueze (set by Sophia Wei)
Set 1 · PROV 21-23 HARV · HARV 62% → 68%
02
Bridget EganAttack error+5.8%
Attack error by Bridget Egan
Set 3 · PROV 26-25 HARV · PROV 10% → 16%
03
Aubrey EasterwoodAttack error+5.6%
Attack error by Aubrey Easterwood
Set 3 · PROV 27-28 HARV · HARV 89% → 95%
04
Ryleigh PattersonAttack error+5.5%
Attack error by Ryleigh Patterson
Set 1 · PROV 21-21 HARV · PROV 37% → 43%
05
Fielding MayhughAttack error+5.4%
Fielding Mayhugh stuffed by Masina Ogbechie & Ryleigh Patterson
Set 3 · PROV 27-29 HARV · HARV 95% → 100%
06
PROV serverService error+5.0%
Providence service error
Set 1 · PROV 21-22 HARV · HARV 57% → 62%
07
Ryleigh PattersonKill+4.8%
Kill by Ryleigh Patterson
Set 1 · PROV 19-21 HARV · HARV 61% → 66%
08
Masina OgbechieKill+4.6%
Kill by Masina Ogbechie (set by Catlin Shao)
Set 3 · PROV 26-26 HARV · HARV 84% → 89%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Providenceaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
21Sophia AdkinsOH	3	19	1	31	.581	2	0	1	10	0	2	1	20
9Tori OtterMB	3	5	7	19	-.105	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	5.5
11Lyric BerryMB	3	2	1	7	.143	0	0	0	1	0	3	1.5	3.5
0Aubrey EasterwoodMB	3	2	2	9	.000	0	0	2	1	0	2	1	3
1Miller McDonaldS	3	1	0	2	.500	20	1	2	5	0	0	0	2
15Macy TaylorOH	3	0	3	12	-.250	0	0	0	5	0	1	0.5	0.5
7Shea DupuisOH	3	5	2	17	.176	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
20Sarah MusialS	3	2	0	3	.667	9	1	2	1	0	0	0	3
6Ava DyerL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	5	1	1	12	0	0	0	1
12Fielding MayhughOH	2	4	2	10	.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4
8Gwenyth KossOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0
27Kaia EasterbrookMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
32Lyla BuserOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
Team totals		40	18	111	.198	36	3	9	36	3	10	5	69

Harvardhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
19Kayla NwabuezeMB	3	13	4	27	.333	1	0	2	2	1	2	1	14
13Ali FarquharOH	3	8	2	21	.286	0	0	0	2	0	2	1	9
10Bridget EganOH	3	7	5	23	.087	1	0	0	5	1	2	1	8
21Ryleigh PattersonMB	3	5	3	8	.250	0	0	0	2	0	6	3	8
18Riley ResmerMB	3	3	0	5	.600	1	2	2	4	0	3	1.5	6.5
1Sophia WeiS	3	0	1	2	-.500	20	1	1	5	0	0	0	1
4Masina OgbechieOH	3	11	2	20	.450	0	0	0	3	0	3	1.5	12.5
2Catlin ShaoS	3	0	0	1	.000	17	0	3	3	0	0	0	0
44Jordan ShelorL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0
16Yvette EastonL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	0	15	1	0	0	0
Team totals		47	17	107	.280	43	3	9	43	3	18	9	79

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 PROV · HARV 5

Set 1

21-25

Longest run 5 PROVHARV 5

Set 2

21-25

Longest run 3 PROVHARV 5

Set 3

27-29

Longest run 4 PROVHARV 4

Bars above the line = Harvard leads, below = Providence leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Providence

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	62%8/13	30%3/10
2	57%8/14	58%11/19
3	78%7/9	38%5/13
4	78%7/9	42%5/12
5	50%6/12	22%2/9
6	25%5/20	25%2/8
All	53%41/77	39%28/71

Harvard

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	62%8/13	54%7/13
2	47%8/17	47%7/15
3	64%7/11	36%4/11
4	54%7/13	30%3/10
5	78%7/9	13%1/8
6	75%6/8	70%14/20
All	61%43/71	47%36/77

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

148 rallies

Rally log

#	PROV-HARV	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	PROV	HARV	Kill	Kayla Nwabueze	set Sophia Wei	+1.8
2	0-2	HARV	HARV	Kill	Bridget Egan	set Sophia Wei	+2.3
3	1-2	HARV	PROV	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+1.8
4	1-3	PROV	HARV	Kill	Bridget Egan	set Sophia Wei	+1.8
5	2-3	HARV	PROV	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+1.8
6	2-4	PROV	HARV	Attack err	Tori Otter		+1.9
7	2-5	HARV	HARV	Attack err	Tori Otter	blk Bridget Egan, Riley Resmer	+2.3
8	3-5	HARV	PROV	Serve err	HARV server		+1.7
9	3-6	PROV	HARV	Kill	Masina Ogbechie	set Catlin Shao	+1.8
10	3-7	HARV	HARV	Kill	Riley Resmer		+2.1
11	4-7	HARV	PROV	Kill	Sarah Musial		+1.5
12	4-8	PROV	HARV	Kill	Masina Ogbechie		+1.7
13	5-8	HARV	PROV	Serve err	HARV server		+1.6
14	5-9	PROV	HARV	Kill	Kayla Nwabueze	set Catlin Shao	+1.7
15	5-10	HARV	HARV	Ace	HARV server	aced Gwenyth Koss	+1.9
16	6-10	HARV	PROV	Attack err	Kayla Nwabueze		+1.3
17	7-10	PROV	PROV	Kill	Lyric Berry	set Miller McDonald	+2.0
18	7-11	PROV	HARV	Kill	Kayla Nwabueze	set Bridget Egan	+1.8
19	8-11	HARV	PROV×5	Serve err	HARV server		+1.6
20	9-11	PROV	PROV×5	Attack err	Bridget Egan		+2.4
21	10-11	PROV	PROV×5	Attack err	Ryleigh Patterson		+2.8
22	11-11	PROV	PROV×5	Attack err	Bridget Egan	blk Tori Otter, Lyric Berry	+3.1
23	12-11	PROV	PROV×5	Attack err	Bridget Egan		+3.2
24	12-12	PROV	HARV×5	Kill	Ryleigh Patterson	set Sophia Wei	+2.5
25	12-13	HARV	HARV×5	Attack err	Tori Otter	blk Bridget Egan, Riley Resmer	+3.3
26	12-14	HARV	HARV×5	Attack err	Tori Otter		+3.2
27	12-15	HARV	HARV×5	Kill	Ali Farquhar	set Sophia Wei	+3.0
28	12-16	HARV	HARV×5	Kill	Bridget Egan	set Kayla Nwabueze	+2.6
29	13-16	HARV	PROV	Kill	Lyric Berry	set Miller McDonald	+1.7
30	14-16	PROV	PROV	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+2.7
31	14-17	PROV	HARV	Kill	Bridget Egan	set Sophia Wei	+2.5
32	14-18	HARV	HARV	Attack err	Aubrey Easterwood		+2.7
33	15-18	HARV	PROV×3	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Miller McDonald	+1.7
34	16-18	PROV	PROV×3	Kill	Shea Dupuis	set Sarah Musial	+2.8
35	17-18	PROV	PROV×3	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Sarah Musial	+3.6
36	17-19	PROV	HARV	Kill	Masina Ogbechie	set Catlin Shao	+3.3
37	18-19	HARV	PROV	Kill	Shea Dupuis	set Sarah Musial	+3.0
38	19-19	PROV	PROV	Attack err	Masina Ogbechie	blk Aubrey Easterwood, Macy Taylor	+4.6
39	19-20	PROV	HARV	Kill	Kayla Nwabueze	set Catlin Shao	+4.0
40	19-21	HARV	HARV	Kill	Ryleigh Patterson		+4.8
41	20-21	HARV	PROV	Kill	Sarah Musial		+3.3
42	21-21	PROV	PROV	Attack err	Ryleigh Patterson		+5.5
43	21-22	PROV	HARV×4	Serve err	PROV server		+5.0
44	21-23	HARV	HARV×4	Kill	Kayla Nwabueze	set Sophia Wei	+6.0
45	21-24	HARV	HARV×4	Attack err	Shea Dupuis	blk Ryleigh Patterson, Kayla Nwabueze	+4.3
46	21-25	HARV	HARV×4	Attack err	Lyric Berry		+1.8
Set 2
1	1-0	HARV	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Ava Dyer	+1.8
2	2-0	PROV	PROV	Ace	PROV server	aced Yvette Easton	+2.2
3	2-1	PROV	HARV	Kill	Ryleigh Patterson	set Sophia Wei	+1.7
4	2-2	HARV	HARV	Bad set	Miller McDonald		+2.2
5	3-2	HARV	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Miller McDonald	+1.8
6	3-3	PROV	HARV	Serve err	PROV server		+1.8
7	4-3	HARV	PROV	Serve err	HARV server		+1.9
8	4-4	PROV	HARV	Serve err	PROV server		+1.8
9	4-5	HARV	HARV	Kill	Masina Ogbechie	set Catlin Shao	+2.4
10	5-5	HARV	PROV	Serve err	HARV server		+1.9
11	5-6	PROV	HARV	Serve err	PROV server		+1.9
12	6-6	HARV	PROV	Kill	Shea Dupuis	set Ava Dyer	+1.9
13	6-7	PROV	HARV×5	Kill	Masina Ogbechie	set Catlin Shao	+2.0
14	6-8	HARV	HARV×5	Attack err	Tori Otter	blk Kayla Nwabueze, Ryleigh Patterson	+2.4
15	6-9	HARV	HARV×5	Kill	Kayla Nwabueze	set Catlin Shao	+2.3
16	6-10	HARV	HARV×5	Attack err	Macy Taylor		+2.1
17	6-11	HARV	HARV×5	Ace	HARV server	aced Team	+1.8
18	7-11	HARV	PROV	Kill	Miller McDonald	set Sophia Adkins	+1.2
19	7-12	PROV	HARV	Kill	Masina Ogbechie	set Catlin Shao	+1.4
20	8-12	HARV	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Miller McDonald	+1.2
21	8-13	PROV	HARV	Kill	Ryleigh Patterson	set Sophia Wei	+1.5
22	8-14	HARV	HARV	Attack err	Tori Otter		+1.5
23	9-14	HARV	PROV	Serve err	HARV server		+0.9
24	10-14	PROV	PROV	Attack err	Ali Farquhar	blk Aubrey Easterwood, Sophia Adkins	+1.5
25	10-15	PROV	HARV	Kill	Ali Farquhar	set Sophia Wei	+1.5
26	11-15	HARV	PROV	Kill	Shea Dupuis	set Sarah Musial	+1.2
27	11-16	PROV	HARV	Kill	Ali Farquhar	set Sophia Wei	+1.5
28	12-16	HARV	PROV	Serve err	HARV server		+1.2
29	13-16	PROV	PROV	Attack err	Masina Ogbechie	blk Shea Dupuis, Lyric Berry	+2.0
30	13-17	PROV	HARV	Attack err	Macy Taylor		+1.9
31	14-17	HARV	PROV	Kill	Shea Dupuis	set Sarah Musial	+1.6
32	15-17	PROV	PROV	Attack err	Kayla Nwabueze		+2.5
33	15-18	PROV	HARV×5	Kill	Masina Ogbechie	set Catlin Shao	+2.4
34	15-19	HARV	HARV×5	Attack err	Macy Taylor	blk Masina Ogbechie, Ryleigh Patterson	+2.5
35	15-20	HARV	HARV×5	Kill	Kayla Nwabueze	set Riley Resmer	+1.9
36	15-21	HARV	HARV×5	Ace	HARV server	aced Lyla Buser	+1.2
37	15-22	HARV	HARV×5	Kill	Ryleigh Patterson	set Catlin Shao	+0.6
38	16-22	HARV	PROV	Serve err	HARV server		+0.2
39	17-22	PROV	PROV	Attack err	Ryleigh Patterson		+0.5
40	17-23	PROV	HARV	Kill	Kayla Nwabueze	set Catlin Shao	+0.7
41	18-23	HARV	PROV×3	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Miller McDonald	+0.3
42	19-23	PROV	PROV×3	Attack err	Kayla Nwabueze		+0.6
43	20-23	PROV	PROV×3	Attack err	Sophia Wei		+1.2
44	20-24	PROV	HARV	Serve err	PROV server		+1.8
45	21-24	HARV	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Miller McDonald	+0.6
46	21-25	PROV	HARV	Serve err	PROV server		+1.3
Set 3
1	0-1	PROV	HARV×3	Kill	Kayla Nwabueze	set Sophia Wei	+1.1
2	0-2	HARV	HARV×3	Attack err	Tori Otter	blk Ali Farquhar, Ryleigh Patterson	+1.3
3	0-3	HARV	HARV×3	Kill	Bridget Egan	set Yvette Easton	+1.3
4	1-3	HARV	PROV	Attack err	Kayla Nwabueze		+1.0
5	1-4	PROV	HARV	Kill	Ali Farquhar		+1.0
6	2-4	HARV	PROV×3	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Miller McDonald	+1.0
7	3-4	PROV	PROV×3	Kill	Aubrey Easterwood	set Miller McDonald	+1.4
8	4-4	PROV	PROV×3	Kill	Aubrey Easterwood	set Sophia Wei	+1.5
9	4-5	PROV	HARV	Kill	Riley Resmer	set Sophia Wei	+1.2
10	5-5	HARV	PROV×3	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Miller McDonald	+1.2
11	6-5	PROV	PROV×3	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Ava Dyer	+1.6
12	7-5	PROV	PROV×3	Ace	PROV server	aced Bridget Egan	+1.6
13	7-6	PROV	HARV	Kill	Bridget Egan	set Yvette Easton	+1.2
14	8-6	HARV	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Sarah Musial	+1.3
15	8-7	PROV	HARV×3	Kill	Kayla Nwabueze	set Catlin Shao	+1.2
16	8-8	HARV	HARV×3	Bad set	Sophia Adkins		+1.6
17	8-9	HARV	HARV×3	Attack err	Shea Dupuis		+1.7
18	9-9	HARV	PROV	Kill	Fielding Mayhugh	set Ava Dyer	+1.3
19	9-10	PROV	HARV	Serve err	PROV server		+1.4
20	10-10	HARV	PROV	Serve err	HARV server		+1.4
21	11-10	PROV	PROV	Ace	PROV server	aced Kayla Nwabueze	+1.8
22	11-11	PROV	HARV	Serve err	PROV server		+1.4
23	12-11	HARV	PROV	Kill	Fielding Mayhugh	set Miller McDonald	+1.5
24	13-11	PROV	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Miller McDonald	+1.9
25	13-12	PROV	HARV	Kill	Ali Farquhar	set Sophia Wei	+1.4
26	14-12	HARV	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Miller McDonald	+1.6
27	15-12	PROV	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Miller McDonald	+1.9
28	15-13	PROV	HARV	Kill	Riley Resmer	set Sophia Wei	+1.3
29	16-13	HARV	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Ava Dyer	+1.6
30	16-14	PROV	HARV	Kill	Masina Ogbechie	set Catlin Shao	+1.3
31	17-14	HARV	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Sarah Musial	+1.6
32	17-15	PROV	HARV	Kill	Masina Ogbechie	set Catlin Shao	+1.4
33	17-16	HARV	HARV	Kill	Kayla Nwabueze		+2.1
34	18-16	HARV	PROV	Kill	Fielding Mayhugh	set Sarah Musial	+1.9
35	18-17	PROV	HARV×4	Kill	Masina Ogbechie	set Catlin Shao	+1.7
36	18-18	HARV	HARV×4	Kill	Kayla Nwabueze	set Yvette Easton	+2.5
37	18-19	HARV	HARV×4	Kill	Ali Farquhar	set Sophia Wei	+2.7
38	18-20	HARV	HARV×4	Kill	Kayla Nwabueze	set Sophia Wei	+2.6
39	19-20	HARV	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Sarah Musial	+1.8
40	19-21	PROV	HARV×3	Serve err	PROV server		+2.2
41	19-22	HARV	HARV×3	Kill	Ali Farquhar	set Sophia Wei	+2.3
42	19-23	HARV	HARV×3	Kill	Bridget Egan	set Sophia Wei	+1.6
43	20-23	HARV	PROV×4	Kill	Fielding Mayhugh	set Miller McDonald	+0.6
44	21-23	PROV	PROV×4	Attack err	Ali Farquhar	blk Sophia Adkins, Lyric Berry	+1.5
45	22-23	PROV	PROV×4	Kill	Sophia Adkins		+2.6
46	23-23	PROV	PROV×4	Attack err	Bridget Egan		+4.2
47	23-24	PROV	HARV	Attack err	Sophia Adkins	blk Ali Farquhar, Ryleigh Patterson	+4.4
48	24-24	HARV	PROV	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+4.4
49	24-25	PROV	HARV	Kill	Ali Farquhar	set Sophia Wei	+4.4
50	25-25	HARV	PROV	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+4.4
51	26-25	PROV	PROV	Attack err	Bridget Egan		+5.8
52	26-26	PROV	HARV	Kill	Masina Ogbechie	set Catlin Shao	+4.6
53	27-26	HARV	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Miller McDonald	+4.6
54	27-27	PROV	HARV×3	Attack err	Fielding Mayhugh	blk Masina Ogbechie, Riley Resmer	+4.6
55	27-28	HARV	HARV×3	Attack err	Aubrey Easterwood		+5.6
56	27-29	HARV	HARV×3	Attack err	Fielding Mayhugh	blk Masina Ogbechie, Ryleigh Patterson	+5.4

Score shown after each rally, Providence first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.