Final · 4 setsFri, Oct 30, 2026Watch on ACCNX

SMU def. NC State 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: SMU 89.6% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 30, 5:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

SMU won at NC State 3-1 (23-25, 25-18, 25-19, 25-19) on Fri, Oct 30, 2026. SMU's Suli Davis led with 17 kills.

Data through · final Oct 30

Set1234Sets
SMU232525253
NC ST251819191

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Down 6–11 in the third, SMU took the set and then the match.

The match turned twice. Numbers are SMU's win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. RallyIQ gave SMU 90% before first serve.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 1 · SMU 23–21 NC State

    NC State closed it, 4 of the final 4 rallies, to take the set 25–23 and lead 1–0.

    SMU 92% → 73%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 3 · SMU 11–15 NC State

    5 straight SMU points turned an 11–15 deficit into a 16–15 lead.

    SMU 65% → 83%

NC State above 50SMU belowMax swing 8.0%

SMUNC State

Sideout %
SMU 63.4·NC State 52.6
Break %
SMU 47.4·NC State 36.6
Hitting
SMU .236·NC State .095
Longest run
SMU 6·NC State 4

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

NC State above 50 · SMU below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+8.0% NC STrally 179 · set 4

Biggest swing: 8.0% to NC State — set 1, SMU 23-25 NC ST. Kill by Britni Silver (set by Eva Long). NC ST win probability 19% → 27%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

SMU 89.3%10.7% NC ST

SMU wins

3-0
43.3%
3-1
31.6%
3-2
14.4%

NC State wins

3-0
1.4%
3-1
3.3%
3-2
5.9%
SMU break %
44.0% vs this opp
NC ST break %
34.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Britni SilverKill+8.0%

    Kill by Britni Silver (set by Eva Long)

    Set 1 · SMU 23-25 NC ST · NC ST 19% → 27%

  2. 02
    Jordan SmithKill+6.3%

    Kill by Jordan Smith (set by Eva Long)

    Set 1 · SMU 23-24 NC ST · NC ST 13% → 19%

  3. 03
    NC StateAce+4.1%

    NC State ace on Sarah Frazee

    Set 3 · SMU 10-14 NC ST · NC ST 30% → 34%

  4. 04
    Clara VondranAttack error+4.0%

    Attack error by Clara Vondran

    Set 3 · SMU 15-15 NC ST · SMU 75% → 79%

  5. 05
    Jordan SmithAttack error+4.0%

    Attack error by Jordan Smith

    Set 3 · SMU 14-15 NC ST · SMU 71% → 75%

  6. 06
    Jordan SmithKill+4.0%

    Kill by Jordan Smith (set by Eva Long)

    Set 1 · SMU 23-23 NC ST · NC ST 9% → 13%

  7. 07

    Jordan Smith stuffed by Elle Vandeweghe & Jadyn Livings

    Set 3 · SMU 16-15 NC ST · SMU 79% → 83%

  8. 08
    SMUAce+3.7%

    SMU ace on Zuzanna Maciejewicz

    Set 3 · SMU 13-15 NC ST · SMU 67% → 71%

Box score

Official NCAA box

SMUaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
417544.27300211102118
48415.2670230008414
49114.5710001016413
47220.250200600429
4011-1.000371460031.52.5
4000–002300000
47629.03411320052.510.5
4000–3221000002
3000–000200000
2000–001200000
2000–000320000
Team totals4819123.236436174641281598
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
4141036.11110043010.514.5
45114.286001400427
4128-.125332150052.55.5
43415-.06700381010.53.5
4003.000012700001
3218.125000000424
411825.1201000002112
4000–113300001
4001.0003041010000
25213.23100000010.55.5
1013-.333000200211
1000–001000000
Team totals4129126.095394154360201081

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 SMU · NC ST 4

Set 1

23-25

Longest run 5 SMUNC ST 4

Set 2

25-18

Longest run 3 SMUNC ST 3

Set 3

25-19

Longest run 6 SMUNC ST 3

Set 4

25-19

Longest run 4 SMUNC ST 4

Bars above the line = NC State leads, below = SMU leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

SMU

SlotSideout %Break %
1
69%11/16
55%11/20
2
75%9/12
47%8/17
3
57%8/14
31%4/13
4
57%8/14
47%7/15
5
57%8/14
47%7/15
6
67%8/12
53%9/17
All
63%52/82
47%46/97

NC State

SlotSideout %Break %
1
45%10/22
17%2/12
2
56%9/16
29%4/14
3
57%8/14
53%9/17
4
53%8/15
38%5/13
5
47%8/17
33%4/12
6
62%8/13
43%6/14
All
53%51/97
37%30/82

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

179 rallies

#SMU-NC STSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0NC STSMUServe errNC State+0.7
21-1SMUNC STKillBritni Silverset Eva Long+0.8
32-1NC STSMUKillSuli Davisset Victoria Harris+0.7
42-2SMUNC STAttack errSuli Davis+0.8
52-3NC STNC STKillJordan Smithset Eva Long+1.4
63-3NC STSMUKillFavor Anyanwuset Hannah Beauford+0.8
73-4SMUNC STKillJordan Smithset Eva Long+1.0
83-5NC STNC STBlockedJadyn Livingsblk Jordan Smith, Talia Francom+1.6
94-5NC STSMUKillSuli Davisset Hannah Beauford+0.9
104-6SMUNC STAttack errJadyn Livings+1.1
114-7NC STNC STAttack errHannah Beauford+1.8
125-7NC STSMUKillElle Vandewegheset Hannah Beauford+1.0
135-8SMUNC STServe errSMU+1.3
145-9NC STNC STBlockedJadyn Livingsblk Norah Busch, Eva Long+2.0
156-9NC STSMUServe errNC State+1.0
167-9SMUSMUBlockedClara Vondranblk Gabi Placide, Elle Vandeweghe+1.7
177-10SMUNC STServe errSMU+1.4
188-10NC STSMU×3KillElle Vandewegheset Hannah Beauford+1.1
199-10SMUSMU×3KillSuli Davisset Hannah Beauford+1.8
2010-10SMUSMU×3KillFavor Anyanwuset Eva Long+1.8
2110-11SMUNC STServe errSMU+1.3
2211-11NC STSMUServe errNC State+1.1
2312-11SMUSMUKillSuli Davisset Victoria Harris+1.7
2412-12SMUNC STKillTalia Francomset Eva Long+1.1
2513-12NC STSMU×5KillFavor Anyanwuset Hannah Beauford+1.1
2614-12SMUSMU×5KillFavor Anyanwuset Hannah Beauford+1.6
2715-12SMUSMU×5KillJadyn Livingsset Hannah Beauford+1.3
2816-12SMUSMU×5Attack errJordan Smith+0.9
2917-12SMUSMU×5BlockedBritni Silverblk Jadyn Livings, Favor Anyanwu+0.6
3017-13SMUNC ST×4KillJordan Smithset Britni Silver+0.3
3117-14NC STNC ST×4KillClara Vondranset Laurna Kerr+0.7
3217-15NC STNC ST×4AceNC Stateaced Sarah Frazee+1.1
3317-16NC STNC ST×4KillJordan Smithset Eva Long+1.7
3418-16NC STSMUKillSuli Davisset Hannah Beauford+1.2
3518-17SMUNC STKillTalia Francomset Eva Long+1.2
3619-17NC STSMUKillSuli Davisset Jadyn Livings+1.3
3720-17SMUSMUAttack errNorah Busch+1.6
3820-18SMUNC STKillJordan Smithset Zuzanna Maciejewicz+0.8
3920-19NC STNC STBlockedElle Vandewegheblk Norah Busch, Eva Long+1.9
4021-19NC STSMUKillGabi Placideset Victoria Harris+1.5
4121-20SMUNC STKillNorah Buschset Eva Long+1.3
4222-20NC STSMUServe errNC State+1.6
4322-21SMUNC STServe errSMU+1.3
4423-21NC STSMUKillSuli Davisset Hannah Beauford+1.8
4523-22SMUNC ST×4KillBritni Silverset Eva Long+1.3
4623-23NC STNC ST×4KillJordan Smithset Eva Long+4.0
4723-24NC STNC ST×4KillJordan Smithset Eva Long+6.3
4823-25NC STNC ST×4KillBritni Silverset Eva Long+8.0
Set 2
10-1SMUNC STServe errSMU+1.7
21-1NC STSMUKillGabi Placideset Hannah Beauford+1.5
32-1SMUSMUKillFavor Anyanwu+2.3
42-2SMUNC STKillBritni Silverset Zuzanna Maciejewicz+1.6
53-2NC STSMUServe errNC State+1.4
63-3SMUNC STKillBritni Silverset Eva Long+1.6
74-3NC STSMUServe errNC State+1.5
84-4SMUNC STKillJordan Smithset Eva Long+1.7
95-4NC STSMUKillJadyn Livingsset Hannah Beauford+1.5
106-4SMUSMUKillElle Vandewegheset Hannah Beauford+2.2
116-5SMUNC STKillNorah Buschset Eva Long+1.4
126-6NC STNC STBlockedJadyn Livingsblk Norah Busch, Eva Long+2.7
137-6NC STSMU×3KillJadyn Livingsset Hannah Beauford+1.6
148-6SMUSMU×3Attack errClara Vondran+2.4
159-6SMUSMU×3KillJadyn Livings+2.0
169-7SMUNC STServe errSMU+1.2
1710-7NC STSMUKillSuli Davisset Hannah Beauford+1.3
1811-7SMUSMUKillSuli Davisset Hannah Beauford+1.6
1911-8SMUNC ST×3KillBritni Silverset Eva Long+0.9
2011-9NC STNC ST×3Attack errSuli Davis+2.0
2111-10NC STNC ST×3Attack errGabi Placide+2.6
2212-10NC STSMU×3KillSuli Davisset Hannah Beauford+1.7
2313-10SMUSMU×3KillFavor Anyanwuset Hannah Beauford+2.3
2414-10SMUSMU×3AceSMUaced Britni Silver+1.8
2514-11SMUNC STServe errSMU+1.0
2615-11NC STSMU×3KillGabi Placideset Hannah Beauford+1.1
2716-11SMUSMU×3BlockedJordan Smithblk Hannah Beauford, Favor Anyanwu+1.3
2817-11SMUSMU×3KillSuli Davisset Jordan Smith+0.8
2917-12SMUNC STKillBritni Silverset Eva Long+0.4
3018-12NC STSMUBlockedJordan Smithblk Suli Davis, Favor Anyanwu+0.5
3118-13SMUNC STBlockedFavor Anyanwublk Clara Vondran, Talia Francom+0.3
3218-14NC STNC STAttack errSuli Davis+0.9
3319-14NC STSMUServe errNC State+0.7
3419-15SMUNC STKillJordan Smithset Eva Long+0.5
3520-15NC STSMUServe errNC State+0.7
3621-15SMUSMUAttack errClara Vondran+0.6
3721-16SMUNC STKillClara Vondranset Eva Long+0.2
3822-16NC STSMUBlockedBritni Silverblk Gabi Placide, Elle Vandeweghe+0.3
3923-16SMUSMUBlockedBritni Silverblk Elle Vandeweghe, Gabi Placide+0.2
4023-17SMUNC STKillBritni Silverset Eva Long·
4123-18NC STNC STAttack errElle Vandeweghe+0.1
4224-18NC STSMUServe errNC State+0.2
4325-18SMUSMUAceSMUaced Clara Vondran·
Set 3
11-0NC STSMUKillSuli Davisset Hannah Beauford+1.3
21-1SMUNC STServe errSMU+1.4
32-1NC STSMUKillFavor Anyanwuset Hannah Beauford+1.3
42-2SMUNC STKillBritni Silverset Eva Long+1.4
52-3NC STNC STAceNC Stateaced Suli Davis+2.6
63-3NC STSMUKillSuli Davisset Hannah Beauford+1.5
73-4SMUNC STServe errSMU+1.8
83-5NC STNC STAttack errSuli Davis+3.0
94-5NC STSMUKillJadyn Livingsset Hannah Beauford+1.7
104-6SMUNC ST×3Serve errSMU+2.0
114-7NC STNC ST×3BlockedJadyn Livingsblk Norah Busch, Jordan Smith+3.3
124-8NC STNC ST×3KillClara Vondranset Jordan Smith+3.5
135-8NC STSMUKillSuli Davisset Hannah Beauford+1.8
145-9SMUNC STServe errSMU+2.4
156-9NC STSMUKillElle Vandewegheset Hannah Beauford+1.8
166-10SMUNC STServe errSMU+2.4
176-11NC STNC STKillBritni Silverset Eva Long+3.6
187-11NC STSMUKillGabi Placideset Hannah Beauford+1.7
198-11SMUSMUAttack errBritni Silver+3.1
208-12SMUNC STKillBritni Silverset Eva Long+2.6
219-12NC STSMUServe errNC State+1.9
2210-12SMUSMUAttack errBritni Silver+3.4
2310-13SMUNC STKillEva Long+2.7
2410-14NC STNC STAceNC Stateaced Sarah Frazee+4.1
2511-14NC STSMUAttack errTalia Francom+2.0
2611-15SMUNC STServe errSMU+2.8
2712-15NC STSMU×5KillSuli Davisset Hannah Beauford+2.0
2813-15SMUSMU×5AceSMUaced Zuzanna Maciejewicz+3.7
2914-15SMUSMU×5Attack errJordan Smith+4.0
3015-15SMUSMU×5Attack errClara Vondran+4.0
3116-15SMUSMU×5BlockedJordan Smithblk Elle Vandeweghe, Jadyn Livings+3.8
3216-16SMUNC STServe errSMU+2.6
3317-16NC STSMU×6KillElle Vandewegheset Hannah Beauford+2.5
3418-16SMUSMU×6KillJadyn Livingsset Gabi Placide+3.5
3519-16SMUSMU×6KillJadyn Livingsset Gabi Placide+2.7
3620-16SMUSMU×6BlockedJordan Smithblk Elle Vandeweghe, Jadyn Livings+1.8
3721-16SMUSMU×6AceHannah Beaufordaced Britni Silver+1.0
3822-16SMUSMU×6Attack errRebecca Ring+0.5
3922-17SMUNC STServe errHannah Beauford+0.1
4022-18NC STNC STAceKate Kilpatrick+0.4
4123-18NC STSMUKillGabi Placideset Hannah Beauford+0.5
4224-18SMUSMUKillGabi Placideset Hannah Beauford+0.2
4324-19SMUNC STServe errJadyn Livings·
4425-19NC STSMUKillSuli Davisset Hannah Beauford+0.1
Set 4
11-0SMUSMU×4BlockedBritni Silverblk Gabi Placide, Elle Vandeweghe+1.5
22-0SMUSMU×4AceJadyn Livings+1.3
33-0SMUSMU×4Attack errBritni Silver+1.1
44-0SMUSMU×4KillElle Vandewegheset Hannah Beauford+0.9
54-1SMUNC STServe errJadyn Livings+0.6
65-1NC STSMUServe errZuzanna Maciejewicz+0.6
75-2SMUNC STKillTalia Francomset Eva Long+0.6
86-2NC STSMUKillSuli Davisset Hannah Beauford+0.6
96-3SMUNC STKillJordan Smithset Eva Long+0.6
107-3NC STSMUServe errLaurna Kerr+0.6
118-3SMUSMUBlockedRebecca Ringblk Hannah Beauford, Favor Anyanwu+0.8
128-4SMUNC STKillTalia Francomset Victoria Harris+0.4
139-4NC STSMUKillFavor Anyanwuset Hannah Beauford+0.5
1410-4SMUSMUBlockedJordan Smithblk Elle Vandeweghe, Jadyn Livings+0.6
1510-5SMUNC STKillRebecca Ringset Eva Long+0.3
1611-5NC STSMUKillElle Vandewegheset Hannah Beauford+0.4
1711-6SMUNC STKillRebecca Ringset Eva Long+0.3
1812-6NC STSMU×3KillElle Vandewegheset Hannah Beauford+0.4
1913-6SMUSMU×3BlockedSophia Groomblk Suli Davis, Elle Vandeweghe+0.4
2014-6SMUSMU×3Attack errBritni Silver+0.2
2114-7SMUNC STKillBritni Silverset Eva Long+0.1
2214-8NC STNC STBlockedSuli Davisblk Eva Long, Talia Francom+0.3
2315-8NC STSMUAttack errBritni Silver+0.2
2416-8SMUSMUBlockedEva Longblk Favor Anyanwu+0.2
2516-9SMUNC ST×4KillBritni Silverset Eva Long+0.1
2616-10NC STNC ST×4BlockedGabi Placideblk Britni Silver, Talia Francom+0.2
2716-11NC STNC ST×4KillTalia Francomset Eva Long+0.4
2816-12NC STNC ST×4KillBritni Silverset Eva Long+0.6
2917-12NC STSMUKillGabi Placideset Hannah Beauford+0.5
3017-13SMUNC STKillJordan Smithset Eva Long+0.4
3118-13NC STSMU×3Serve errLaurna Kerr+0.5
3219-13SMUSMU×3KillFavor Anyanwuset Hannah Beauford+0.5
3320-13SMUSMU×3BlockedJordan Smithblk Favor Anyanwu, Jadyn Livings+0.3
3420-14SMUNC STKillRebecca Ringset Eva Long+0.1
3521-14NC STSMUServe errElaisa Villar+0.1
3622-14SMUSMUAceVictoria Harrisaced Britni Silver+0.1
3722-15SMUNC ST×3KillRebecca Ringset Eva Long·
3822-16NC STNC ST×3BlockedElle Vandewegheblk Sophia Groom, Rebecca Ring+0.1
3922-17NC STNC ST×3Attack errJadyn Livings+0.1
4023-17NC STSMUAttack errEva Long+0.2
4123-18SMUNC STKillRebecca Ringset Zuzanna Maciejewicz+0.1
4223-19NC STNC STBlockedElle Vandewegheblk Eva Long, Sophia Groom+0.2
4324-19NC STSMUServe errClara Vondran+0.3
4425-19SMUSMUAttack errBritni Silver+0.1

Score shown after each rally, SMU first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).