FinalSat, Sep 5, 2026

AwayBIG-EAST

3:0

HomeAMERICAN

Marquette def. South Fla. 3–0

(25-16, 25-22, 25-19)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
MARQ	25	25	25	3
USF	16	22	19	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

USF above 50 · MARQ below

Biggest swing: 5.6% to Marquette — set 2, MARQ 24-22 USF. Kill by Molly Welge (set by Luanna Markus). USF win probability 15% → 10%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

MARQ 66.7%33.3% USF

Marquette wins

3-0

21.0%

3-1

25.6%

3-2

20.0%

South Fla. wins

3-0

6.7%

3-1

11.9%

3-2

14.8%

MARQ break %: 43.0% vs this opp
USF break %: 39.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Molly WelgeKill+5.6%
Kill by Molly Welge (set by Luanna Markus)
Set 2 · MARQ 24-22 USF · MARQ 85% → 90%
02
Carson TylerKill+4.4%
Kill by Carson Tyler (set by Luanna Markus)
Set 2 · MARQ 23-22 USF · MARQ 80% → 85%
03
Paula TomasaKill+4.1%
Kill by Paula Tomasa (set by Nina Jioshvili-Ravva)
Set 2 · MARQ 20-20 USF · USF 16% → 20%
04
Emma ParksKill+3.8%
Kill by Emma Parks (set by Luanna Markus)
Set 2 · MARQ 19-18 USF · MARQ 79% → 83%
05
Molly WelgeAttack error+3.8%
Molly Welge stuffed by Laila Ivey & Amelia Wass de Czege
Set 2 · MARQ 17-18 USF · USF 20% → 23%
06
Tani JuricKill+3.7%
Kill by Tani Juric (set by Luanna Markus)
Set 2 · MARQ 22-21 USF · MARQ 80% → 84%
07
Tani JuricAttack error+3.6%
Attack error by Tani Juric
Set 2 · MARQ 22-22 USF · USF 16% → 20%
08
Laila IveyAttack error+3.6%
Attack error by Laila Ivey
Set 2 · MARQ 20-18 USF · MARQ 83% → 87%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Marquetteaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
20Carson TylerOH	3	14	3	27	.407	0	2	3	10	1	0	2	1	17
15Molly WelgeMB	3	6	2	14	.286	1	0	1	0	0	1	4	3	9
11Tani JuricOPP	3	7	3	15	.267	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	7.5
7Keira SchmidtMB	3	4	3	10	.100	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	4
3Luanna MarkusS	3	2	0	6	.333	39	1	1	8	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
6Allie BeersOH	3	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
10Emma ParksOH	3	11	3	22	.364	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	11
2Emi JuricL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	1	0	8	0	0	0	0	1
14Annika KowalskiDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
24Avery HelmsDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		45	14	95	.326	44	4	6	39	2	1	8	5	75

South Fla.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
1Paula TomasaOH	3	17	5	38	.316	0	0	1	5	0	0	4	2	19
4Mora PampinOH	3	10	5	23	.217	1	0	0	1	1	0	2	1	11
15Amelia Wass de CzegeMB	3	2	0	5	.400	0	2	3	0	0	1	5	3.5	7.5
5Nina Jioshvili-RavvaS	3	1	0	1	1.000	25	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	1
12Addy BrusOH	2	2	6	15	-.267	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	2
11Iyanna GarvinMB	2	1	1	7	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
21Rana YamadaL/DS	3	1	0	1	1.000	3	0	1	10	1	0	0	0	1
17Ryelle RondoL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0
8Anne PerezMB	2	0	1	2	-.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	1.5
19Emelyn StettinS	2	0	0	0	–	5	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
2Laila IveyOH	1	0	1	5	-.200	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	1
0Samiyah Abdur-RahimOH	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
13Riley McCaugheyS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18Sofija DjordjevicL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		35	19	98	.163	34	2	6	33	4	1	16	9	57

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 MARQ · USF 4

Set 1

25-16

Longest run 4 MARQUSF 2

Set 2

25-22

Longest run 4 MARQUSF 4

Set 3

25-19

Longest run 3 MARQUSF 2

Bars above the line = South Fla. leads, below = Marquette leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Marquette

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	64%9/14	13%1/8
2	100%8/8	50%8/16
3	89%8/9	20%2/10
4	78%7/9	46%6/13
5	55%6/11	65%11/17
6	75%6/8	33%3/9
All	75%44/59	42%31/73

South Fla.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	82%9/11	27%3/11
2	50%8/16	25%3/12
3	70%7/10	11%1/9
4	35%6/17	0%0/7
5	50%6/12	40%4/10
6	86%6/7	40%4/10
All	58%42/73	25%15/59

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

132 rallies

Rally log

#	MARQ-USF	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	USF	USF	Kill	Mora Pampin	set Rana Yamada	+2.4
2	1-1	USF	MARQ	Serve err	USF server		+1.6
3	1-2	MARQ	USF	Kill	Paula Tomasa	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+1.7
4	2-2	USF	MARQ	Kill	Carson Tyler	set Luanna Markus	+1.7
5	2-3	MARQ	USF	Kill	Paula Tomasa	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+1.8
6	3-3	USF	MARQ	Attack err	Addy Brus		+1.7
7	4-3	MARQ	MARQ	Attack err	Addy Brus	blk Molly Welge, Luanna Markus	+2.4
8	4-4	MARQ	USF	Kill	Paula Tomasa	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+1.8
9	5-4	USF	MARQ×4	Attack err	Addy Brus		+1.7
10	6-4	MARQ	MARQ×4	Kill	Carson Tyler	set Luanna Markus	+2.4
11	7-4	MARQ	MARQ×4	Kill	Emma Parks	set Luanna Markus	+2.2
12	8-4	MARQ	MARQ×4	Kill	Keira Schmidt	set Luanna Markus	+1.9
13	8-5	MARQ	USF	Kill	Iyanna Garvin	set Emelyn Stettin	+1.2
14	9-5	USF	MARQ	Kill	Emma Parks	set Luanna Markus	+1.4
15	9-6	MARQ	USF	Serve err	MARQ server		+1.3
16	10-6	USF	MARQ	Attack err	Mora Pampin		+1.4
17	10-7	MARQ	USF	Kill	Samiyah Abdur-Rahim	set Emelyn Stettin	+1.3
18	11-7	USF	MARQ	Kill	Tani Juric	set Luanna Markus	+1.4
19	11-8	MARQ	USF	Kill	Paula Tomasa	set Mora Pampin	+1.3
20	12-8	USF	MARQ	Kill	Molly Welge	set Luanna Markus	+1.5
21	12-9	MARQ	USF	Attack err	Carson Tyler	blk Amelia Wass de Czege, Paula Tomasa	+1.3
22	13-9	USF	MARQ	Kill	Carson Tyler	set Luanna Markus	+1.5
23	14-9	MARQ	MARQ	Kill	Emma Parks	set Luanna Markus	+1.7
24	14-10	MARQ	USF	Serve err	MARQ server		+1.0
25	15-10	USF	MARQ×3	Kill	Emma Parks	set Luanna Markus	+1.2
26	16-10	MARQ	MARQ×3	Attack err	Paula Tomasa		+1.3
27	17-10	MARQ	MARQ×3	Attack err	Addy Brus		+0.9
28	17-11	MARQ	USF	Kill	Addy Brus	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+0.4
29	17-12	USF	USF	Kill	Mora Pampin	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+0.8
30	18-12	USF	MARQ×3	Kill	Keira Schmidt	set Luanna Markus	+0.8
31	19-12	MARQ	MARQ×3	Attack err	Iyanna Garvin		+0.7
32	20-12	MARQ	MARQ×3	Ace	MARQ server	aced Rana Yamada	+0.4
33	20-13	MARQ	USF	Kill	Mora Pampin	set Emelyn Stettin	+0.1
34	21-13	USF	MARQ	Kill	Keira Schmidt	set Luanna Markus	+0.2
35	21-14	MARQ	USF	Kill	Mora Pampin	set Emelyn Stettin	+0.1
36	22-14	USF	MARQ	Kill	Tani Juric	set Luanna Markus	+0.2
37	22-15	MARQ	USF	Kill	Paula Tomasa	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+0.1
38	23-15	USF	MARQ	Kill	Tani Juric	set Luanna Markus	+0.1
39	23-16	MARQ	USF	Kill	Paula Tomasa	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+0.0
40	24-16	USF	MARQ	Kill	Carson Tyler	set Luanna Markus	+0.1
41	25-16	MARQ	MARQ	Attack err	Addy Brus		+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	MARQ	USF	Kill	Paula Tomasa	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+1.5
2	1-1	USF	MARQ×4	Serve err	USF server		+1.4
3	2-1	MARQ	MARQ×4	Kill	Carson Tyler	set Luanna Markus	+2.0
4	3-1	MARQ	MARQ×4	Ace	MARQ server	aced Mora Pampin	+1.9
5	4-1	MARQ	MARQ×4	Kill	Tani Juric	set Luanna Markus	+1.7
6	4-2	MARQ	USF	Kill	Mora Pampin	set Rana Yamada	+1.2
7	5-2	USF	MARQ	Attack err	Mora Pampin		+1.2
8	5-3	MARQ	USF	Kill	Paula Tomasa	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+1.2
9	6-3	USF	MARQ	Kill	Carson Tyler	set Luanna Markus	+1.3
10	7-3	MARQ	MARQ	Ace	MARQ server	aced Laila Ivey	+1.6
11	7-4	MARQ	USF	Kill	Mora Pampin	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+1.0
12	7-5	USF	USF	Attack err	Molly Welge	blk Amelia Wass de Czege, Laila Ivey	+1.7
13	8-5	USF	MARQ	Kill	Molly Welge	set Luanna Markus	+1.3
14	9-5	MARQ	MARQ	Kill	Luanna Markus	set Molly Welge	+1.7
15	9-6	MARQ	USF×3	Kill	Paula Tomasa	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+1.1
16	9-7	USF	USF×3	Kill	Amelia Wass de Czege	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+1.8
17	9-8	USF	USF×3	Attack err	Emma Parks		+2.1
18	10-8	USF	MARQ	Kill	Emma Parks	set Luanna Markus	+1.6
19	10-9	MARQ	USF	Attack err	Emma Parks	blk Paula Tomasa, Amelia Wass de Czege	+1.6
20	10-10	USF	USF	Kill	Rana Yamada	set Emi Juric	+2.5
21	11-10	USF	MARQ	Kill	Emma Parks	set Luanna Markus	+1.8
22	11-11	MARQ	USF×4	Kill	Paula Tomasa	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+1.8
23	11-12	USF	USF×4	Attack err	Keira Schmidt		+2.8
24	11-13	USF	USF×4	Attack err	Tani Juric	blk Anne Perez, Mora Pampin	+2.9
25	11-14	USF	USF×4	Ace	USF server	aced Carson Tyler	+2.8
26	12-14	USF	MARQ	Kill	Keira Schmidt	set Luanna Markus	+1.7
27	13-14	MARQ	MARQ	Attack err	Mora Pampin	blk Molly Welge, Tani Juric	+2.7
28	13-15	MARQ	USF	Kill	Paula Tomasa	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+2.2
29	14-15	USF	MARQ	Kill	Tani Juric	set Luanna Markus	+2.0
30	14-16	MARQ	USF	Kill	Paula Tomasa	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+2.3
31	15-16	USF	MARQ×3	Kill	Molly Welge	set Luanna Markus	+2.1
32	16-16	MARQ	MARQ×3	Attack err	Paula Tomasa		+3.3
33	17-16	MARQ	MARQ×3	Ace	MARQ server	aced Sofija Djordjevic	+3.3
34	17-17	MARQ	USF	Kill	Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	set Rana Yamada	+2.4
35	17-18	USF	USF	Attack err	Molly Welge	blk Laila Ivey, Amelia Wass de Czege	+3.8
36	18-18	USF	MARQ×3	Serve err	USF server		+2.6
37	19-18	MARQ	MARQ×3	Kill	Emma Parks	set Luanna Markus	+3.8
38	20-18	MARQ	MARQ×3	Attack err	Laila Ivey		+3.6
39	20-19	MARQ	USF	Kill	Amelia Wass de Czege	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+2.2
40	20-20	USF	USF	Kill	Paula Tomasa	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+4.1
41	21-20	USF	MARQ	Kill	Carson Tyler	set Luanna Markus	+3.2
42	21-21	MARQ	USF	Kill	Mora Pampin	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+3.2
43	22-21	USF	MARQ	Kill	Tani Juric	set Luanna Markus	+3.7
44	22-22	MARQ	USF	Attack err	Tani Juric		+3.6
45	23-22	USF	MARQ×3	Kill	Carson Tyler	set Luanna Markus	+4.4
46	24-22	MARQ	MARQ×3	Kill	Molly Welge	set Luanna Markus	+5.6
47	25-22	MARQ	MARQ×3	Attack err	Mora Pampin		+2.9
Set 3
1	1-0	USF	MARQ	Kill	Carson Tyler	set Luanna Markus	+0.8
2	1-1	MARQ	USF	Kill	Mora Pampin	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+0.8
3	2-1	USF	MARQ	Kill	Molly Welge	set Luanna Markus	+0.8
4	3-1	MARQ	MARQ	Attack err	Anne Perez	blk Molly Welge	+1.1
5	3-2	MARQ	USF	Kill	Paula Tomasa	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+0.8
6	4-2	USF	MARQ	Kill	Carson Tyler	set Luanna Markus	+0.8
7	4-3	MARQ	USF	Serve err	MARQ server		+0.8
8	5-3	USF	MARQ	Serve err	USF server		+0.8
9	5-4	MARQ	USF	Serve err	MARQ server		+0.8
10	5-5	USF	USF	Attack err	Keira Schmidt		+1.3
11	6-5	USF	MARQ	Kill	Carson Tyler		+0.9
12	7-5	MARQ	MARQ	Kill	Emma Parks	set Emi Juric	+1.2
13	7-6	MARQ	USF	Attack err	Keira Schmidt	blk Amelia Wass de Czege	+0.8
14	8-6	USF	MARQ	Serve err	USF server		+0.9
15	9-6	MARQ	MARQ	Attack err	Mora Pampin		+1.2
16	9-7	MARQ	USF	Kill	Paula Tomasa	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+0.8
17	9-8	USF	USF	Attack err	Carson Tyler	blk Anne Perez, Paula Tomasa	+1.2
18	10-8	USF	MARQ	Kill	Tani Juric	set Luanna Markus	+0.9
19	10-9	MARQ	USF	Attack err	Tani Juric	blk Mora Pampin, Anne Perez	+0.9
20	11-9	USF	MARQ	Kill	Carson Tyler	set Luanna Markus	+1.0
21	12-9	MARQ	MARQ	Attack err	Addy Brus		+1.2
22	12-10	MARQ	USF	Kill	Paula Tomasa	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+0.8
23	13-10	USF	MARQ	Kill	Carson Tyler	set Emi Juric	+0.9
24	13-11	MARQ	USF	Kill	Paula Tomasa	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+0.8
25	14-11	USF	MARQ	Kill	Emma Parks	set Luanna Markus	+0.9
26	15-11	MARQ	MARQ	Attack err	Paula Tomasa		+1.1
27	15-12	MARQ	USF	Kill	Addy Brus	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+0.7
28	16-12	USF	MARQ	Kill	Emma Parks	set Luanna Markus	+0.8
29	16-13	MARQ	USF	Attack err	Emma Parks		+0.7
30	16-14	USF	USF	Ace	USF server	aced Emma Parks	+1.2
31	17-14	USF	MARQ	Serve err	USF server		+1.0
32	17-15	MARQ	USF	Kill	Mora Pampin	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+0.9
33	18-15	USF	MARQ×3	Bad set	Nina Jioshvili-Ravva		+1.1
34	19-15	MARQ	MARQ×3	Attack err	Paula Tomasa	blk Molly Welge, Carson Tyler	+1.2
35	20-15	MARQ	MARQ×3	Attack err	Paula Tomasa	blk Carson Tyler, Molly Welge	+0.8
36	20-16	MARQ	USF	Kill	Mora Pampin	set Emelyn Stettin	+0.4
37	21-16	USF	MARQ	Kill	Allie Beers	set Tani Juric	+0.5
38	21-17	MARQ	USF	Serve err	MARQ server		+0.3
39	21-18	USF	USF	Attack err	Carson Tyler	blk Paula Tomasa, Amelia Wass de Czege	+0.8
40	22-18	USF	MARQ	Kill	Carson Tyler	set Luanna Markus	+0.8
41	22-19	MARQ	USF	Serve err	MARQ server		+0.5
42	23-19	USF	MARQ×3	Kill	Molly Welge	set Luanna Markus	+0.8
43	24-19	MARQ	MARQ×3	Kill	Luanna Markus	set Keira Schmidt	+0.5
44	25-19	MARQ	MARQ×3	Kill	Emma Parks	set Luanna Markus	+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Marquette first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.