Final · 5 setsSun, Oct 4, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Marquette def. Creighton 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: Creighton 53.8% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 4, 12:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Marquette won at Creighton 3-2 (16-25, 25-22, 17-25, 25-21, 19-17) on Sun, Oct 4, 2026. Marquette's Carson Tyler led with 21 kills.

Data through · final Oct 4

Set12345Sets
MARQ16251725193
CREIGH25222521172

Match story · written from the play-by-play

7 aces from Carson Tyler, and Marquette needed each of them.

3 stretches decided it. Percentages are Marquette's RallyIQ win probability before and after each. Creighton went in at 54% by RallyIQ.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 5 · Marquette 5–3 Creighton

    4 straight Creighton points turned a 3–5 deficit into a 7–5 lead. The match swung to Creighton.

    Marquette 67% → 29%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 5 · Marquette 8–10 Creighton

    Down 8–10, Marquette scored 3 straight to lead 11–10. The match swung to Marquette.

    Marquette 25% → 63%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 5 · Marquette 16–16 Creighton

    Marquette closed it, 3 of the final 4 rallies, to take the set 19–17 and win the match 3–2.

    Marquette 46% → >99%

Creighton above 50Marquette belowMax swing 27.2%

MarquetteCreighton

Sideout %
Marquette 54.1·Creighton 58.4
Break %
Marquette 41.6·Creighton 45.9
Hitting
Marquette .160·Creighton .286
Longest run
Marquette 6·Creighton 6

Carson Tyler
4 kills inside the turning points, 21 K and .153 for the match (28 points).

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Creighton above 50 · Marquette below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 4SET 510050100+27.2% MARQrally 212 · set 5

Biggest swing: 27.2% to Marquette — set 5, MARQ 19-17 CREIGH. Kill by Carson Tyler (set by Luanna Markus). CREIGH win probability 27% → 0%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MARQ 43.8%56.2% CREIGH

Marquette wins

3-0
10.1%
3-1
16.2%
3-2
17.6%

Creighton wins

3-0
15.3%
3-1
21.3%
3-2
19.6%
MARQ break %
42.0% vs this opp
CREIGH break %
43.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Carson TylerKill+27.2%

    Kill by Carson Tyler (set by Luanna Markus)

    Set 5 · MARQ 19-17 CREIGH · MARQ 73% → 100%

  2. 02

    Ayden Ames stuffed by Julia Stanev & Luanna Markus

    Set 5 · MARQ 18-17 CREIGH · MARQ 46% → 73%

  3. 03
    Ashlyn PaymalKill+20.1%

    Kill by Ashlyn Paymal (set by Katie Dalton)

    Set 5 · MARQ 13-14 CREIGH · CREIGH 54% → 74%

  4. 04
    CreightonService error+20.1%

    Creighton service error

    Set 5 · MARQ 14-14 CREIGH · MARQ 26% → 46%

  5. 05
    Caydence DoolanAttack error+20.1%

    Attack error by Caydence Doolan

    Set 5 · MARQ 14-15 CREIGH · CREIGH 54% → 74%

  6. 06
    Molly WelgeKill+20.1%

    Kill by Molly Welge (set by Luanna Markus)

    Set 5 · MARQ 15-15 CREIGH · MARQ 26% → 46%

  7. 07
    Abbey HayesKill+20.1%

    Kill by Abbey Hayes (set by Katie Dalton)

    Set 5 · MARQ 15-16 CREIGH · CREIGH 54% → 74%

  8. 08
    Caydence DoolanKill+20.1%

    Kill by Caydence Doolan (set by Luanna Markus)

    Set 5 · MARQ 16-16 CREIGH · MARQ 26% → 46%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
5211259.15307317000028
510635.11410030031.511.5
58019.42100130031.59.5
53010.300000001225
52111.09143001300213
5024-.5002001030000
510537.1350002100010
5001.0002211010002
5001.0003211200002
4213.333000000002
2000–001000000
1001.000000000000
Team totals5627181.160511177051106102
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
518032.56300020010.518.5
515543.233114116031.517.5
515429.37940060052.517.5
55313.1540364004210
54210.2004800110052.56.5
5014-.250000240000
512443.1861124010114
5001.0004012710000
5000–2011500000
2000–000100000
1000–001000000
Team totals6919175.28660515831111810110

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Marquette vs Creighton

Season series · Series tied 1-1

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 MARQ · CREIGH 6

Set 1

16-25

Longest run 2 MARQCREIGH 5

Set 2

25-22

Longest run 5 MARQCREIGH 5

Set 3

17-25

Longest run 2 MARQCREIGH 3

Set 4

25-21

Longest run 6 MARQCREIGH 6

Set 5

19-17

Longest run 4 MARQCREIGH 4

Bars above the line = Creighton leads, below = Marquette leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Marquette

SlotSideout %Break %
1
46%12/26
53%10/19
2
50%11/22
45%10/22
3
69%11/16
35%6/17
4
60%9/15
17%2/12
5
82%9/11
36%5/14
6
38%8/21
53%9/17
All
54%60/111
42%42/101

Creighton

SlotSideout %Break %
1
48%12/25
58%15/26
2
65%11/17
35%6/17
3
65%11/17
54%13/24
4
90%9/10
29%4/14
5
47%8/17
36%5/14
6
53%8/15
50%8/16
All
58%59/101
46%51/111

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (5 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

212 rallies

#MARQ-CREIGHSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1CREIGHCREIGH×5KillAbbey Hayes+2.4
20-2CREIGHCREIGH×5AceCreightonaced Allie Beers+2.4
30-3CREIGHCREIGH×5AceCreightonaced Allie Beers+2.3
40-4CREIGHCREIGH×5KillAshlyn Paymalset Katie Dalton+2.1
50-5CREIGHCREIGH×5AceCreightonaced Allie Beers+1.9
61-5CREIGHMARQAttack errAbbey Hayes+1.3
72-5MARQMARQAttack errKatie Dalton+2.0
82-6MARQCREIGHKillAbbey Hayesset Katie Dalton+1.7
93-6CREIGHMARQKillTani Juricset Luanna Markus+1.5
103-7MARQCREIGHServe errMarquette+1.7
114-7CREIGHMARQKillTani Juricset Luanna Markus+1.6
124-8MARQCREIGHKillEloise Brandewieset Katie Dalton+1.8
135-8CREIGHMARQServe errCreighton+1.6
145-9MARQCREIGHKillAbbey Hayesset Luanna Markus+1.8
156-9CREIGHMARQKillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+1.6
166-10MARQCREIGHKillAyden Amesset Abbey Hayes+1.8
177-10CREIGHMARQKillCarson Tylerset Avery Helms+1.6
187-11MARQCREIGHKillAbbey Hayesset Emi Juric+1.9
198-11CREIGHMARQServe errCreighton+1.6
208-12MARQCREIGHKillAshlyn Paymalset Katie Dalton+1.9
219-12CREIGHMARQKillTani Juricset Luanna Markus+1.6
229-13MARQCREIGHKillEloise Brandewieset Katie Dalton+1.9
2310-13CREIGHMARQServe errCreighton+1.7
2410-14MARQCREIGHKillEloise Brandewieset Katie Dalton+2.0
2511-14CREIGHMARQKillCaydence Doolanset Luanna Markus+1.7
2611-15MARQCREIGHKillAyden Amesset Katie Dalton+2.0
2712-15CREIGHMARQKillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+1.7
2812-16MARQCREIGH×5Serve errMarquette+2.1
2912-17CREIGHCREIGH×5BlockedCarson Tylerblk Ashlyn Paymal, Nora Wurtz+2.2
3012-18CREIGHCREIGH×5KillAshlyn Paymalset Katie Dalton+1.6
3112-19CREIGHCREIGH×5Attack errLuanna Markus+1.1
3212-20CREIGHCREIGH×5KillAbbey Hayesset Katie Dalton+0.6
3313-20CREIGHMARQServe errCreighton+0.2
3413-21MARQCREIGHAttack errTani Juric+0.4
3514-21CREIGHMARQServe errCreighton+0.2
3614-22MARQCREIGHKillAbbey Hayesset Eloise Brandewie+0.3
3714-23CREIGHCREIGHBad setLuanna Markus+0.1
3815-23CREIGHMARQKillCaydence Doolanset Luanna Markus·
3915-24MARQCREIGHBlockedCaydence Doolanblk Eloise Brandewie, Katie Dalton+0.1
4016-24CREIGHMARQKillTani Juricset Luanna Markus·
4116-25MARQCREIGHAttack errCarson Tyler·
Set 2
10-1MARQCREIGHKillAbbey Hayesset Katie Dalton+1.8
20-2CREIGHCREIGHKillAshlyn Paymal+2.3
31-2CREIGHMARQServe errCreighton+1.7
41-3MARQCREIGHKillEloise Brandewieset Katie Dalton+1.8
52-3CREIGHMARQKillMolly Welgeset Luanna Markus+1.8
62-4MARQCREIGHKillKatie Daltonset Sydney Breissinger+1.8
73-4CREIGHMARQServe errCreighton+1.8
83-5MARQCREIGH×3KillAyden Amesset Katie Dalton+1.9
93-6CREIGHCREIGH×3KillAyden Amesset Saige Damrow+2.4
103-7CREIGHCREIGH×3KillKatie Daltonset Ayden Ames+2.2
114-7CREIGHMARQKillTani Juricset Luanna Markus+1.5
124-8MARQCREIGHKillNora Wurtzset Katie Dalton+1.7
135-8CREIGHMARQ×5KillTani Juricset Allie Beers+1.5
146-8MARQMARQ×5AceMarquetteaced Abbey Hayes+2.3
157-8MARQMARQ×5AceMarquetteaced Abbey Hayes+2.6
168-8MARQMARQ×5BlockedNora Wurtzblk Julia Stanev+2.8
179-8MARQMARQ×5BlockedTrinity Shadd-Ceresblk Tani Juric, Julia Stanev+2.9
189-9MARQCREIGH×5KillAshlyn Paymalset Saige Damrow+2.2
199-10CREIGHCREIGH×5Attack errTani Juric+2.9
209-11CREIGHCREIGH×5BlockedTani Juricblk Nora Wurtz, Abbey Hayes+2.9
219-12CREIGHCREIGH×5KillAbbey Hayes+2.7
229-13CREIGHCREIGH×5KillAshlyn Paymalset Katie Dalton+2.4
2310-13CREIGHMARQ×4KillTani Juricset Emi Juric+1.6
2411-13MARQMARQ×4KillMolly Welgeset Katie Dalton+2.5
2512-13MARQMARQ×4BlockedAbbey Hayesblk Tani Juric, Molly Welge+2.9
2613-13MARQMARQ×4KillMolly Welge+3.3
2713-14MARQCREIGHKillAshlyn Paymalset Katie Dalton+2.6
2814-14CREIGHMARQKillCaydence Doolanset Luanna Markus+2.6
2914-15MARQCREIGHServe errMarquette+2.7
3014-16CREIGHCREIGHKillEloise Brandewieset Katie Dalton+3.5
3115-16CREIGHMARQ×4Serve errCreighton+2.5
3216-16MARQMARQ×4BlockedAbbey Hayesblk Luanna Markus, Molly Welge+3.8
3317-16MARQMARQ×4KillMolly Welgeset Luanna Markus+4.0
3418-16MARQMARQ×4Attack errEloise Brandewie+4.0
3518-17MARQCREIGHKillAbbey Hayesset Eloise Brandewie+2.8
3619-17CREIGHMARQKillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+3.3
3720-17MARQMARQKillCarson Tylerset Avery Helms+3.9
3820-18MARQCREIGHServe errMarquette+2.3
3920-19CREIGHCREIGHAttack errCarson Tyler+4.0
4021-19CREIGHMARQKillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+3.8
4121-20MARQCREIGHKillAyden Amesset Katie Dalton+3.2
4222-20CREIGHMARQKillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+4.2
4323-20MARQMARQAttack errKatie Dalton+4.5
4423-21MARQCREIGHServe errMarquette+2.0
4523-22CREIGHCREIGHAttack errCarson Tyler+4.5
4624-22CREIGHMARQKillCaydence Doolanset Luanna Markus+5.6
4725-22MARQMARQKillCaydence Doolanset Luanna Markus+4.3
Set 3
10-1CREIGHCREIGHKillAshlyn Paymalset Eloise Brandewie+3.2
20-2CREIGHCREIGHKillAshlyn Paymalset Katie Dalton+3.2
31-2CREIGHMARQKillCaydence Doolanset Luanna Markus+2.4
42-2MARQMARQAceMarquetteaced Abbey Hayes+3.3
52-3MARQCREIGHKillEloise Brandewieset Katie Dalton+2.6
62-4CREIGHCREIGHKillAbbey Hayesset Eloise Brandewie+3.3
73-4CREIGHMARQKillMolly Welgeset Luanna Markus+2.5
83-5MARQCREIGHKillEloise Brandewieset Katie Dalton+2.6
94-5CREIGHMARQKillLuanna Markusset Allie Beers+2.5
104-6MARQCREIGH×3Attack errCarson Tyler+2.7
114-7CREIGHCREIGH×3BlockedCarson Tylerblk Katie Dalton, Nora Wurtz+3.3
124-8CREIGHCREIGH×3BlockedBerrak Sporeliblk Ayden Ames+3.1
135-8CREIGHMARQKillBerrak Sporeliset Luanna Markus+2.1
145-9MARQCREIGHKillAyden Amesset Katie Dalton+2.4
156-9CREIGHMARQAttack errNora Wurtz+2.1
166-10MARQCREIGHServe errMarquette+2.4
176-11CREIGHCREIGHAceCreightonaced Caydence Doolan+2.8
187-11CREIGHMARQServe errCreighton+1.8
198-11MARQMARQAceMarquetteaced Abbey Hayes+2.8
208-12MARQCREIGHKillNora Wurtzset Katie Dalton+2.5
218-13CREIGHCREIGHKillEloise Brandewieset Eloise Brandewie+2.8
229-13CREIGHMARQServe errCreighton+1.8
239-14MARQCREIGHKillAshlyn Paymalset Luanna Markus+2.2
2410-14CREIGHMARQAttack errMolly Welge+1.8
2511-14MARQMARQKillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+2.9
2611-15MARQCREIGHKillEloise Brandewieset Katie Dalton+2.7
2711-16CREIGHCREIGHAceCreightonaced Avery Helms+2.9
2812-16CREIGHMARQKillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+1.7
2912-17MARQCREIGHKillEloise Brandewieset Katie Dalton+2.2
3012-18CREIGHCREIGHKillKatie Daltonset Sydney Breissinger+2.1
3113-18CREIGHMARQKillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+1.1
3213-19MARQCREIGHKillNora Wurtzset Katie Dalton+1.6
3313-20CREIGHCREIGHAttack errTani Juric+1.3
3414-20CREIGHMARQKillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+0.5
3514-21MARQCREIGH×3KillAshlyn Paymalset Katie Dalton+0.9
3614-22CREIGHCREIGH×3KillNora Wurtzset Katie Dalton+0.5
3714-23CREIGHCREIGH×3KillNora Wurtzset Katie Dalton+0.2
3815-23CREIGHMARQKillJulia Stanevset Luanna Markus·
3916-23MARQMARQKillMolly Welgeset Luanna Markus+0.1
4016-24MARQCREIGHKillAshlyn Paymalset Katie Dalton+0.2
4117-24CREIGHMARQKillCaydence Doolanset Luanna Markus·
4217-25MARQCREIGHKillAshlyn Paymalset Katie Dalton+0.1
Set 4
11-0MARQMARQ×4AceMarquetteaced Trinity Shadd-Ceres+3.2
22-0MARQMARQ×4Bad setEloise Brandewie+3.2
33-0MARQMARQ×4KillTani Juricset Emi Juric+3.1
44-0MARQMARQ×4AceMarquetteaced Trinity Shadd-Ceres+3.0
54-1MARQCREIGHKillAshlyn Paymalset Katie Dalton+2.0
64-2CREIGHCREIGHKillKatie Dalton+3.0
75-2CREIGHMARQ×3KillTani Juricset Emi Juric+2.5
86-2MARQMARQ×3Attack errEloise Brandewie+3.1
97-2MARQMARQ×3AceMarquetteaced Trinity Shadd-Ceres+2.8
107-3MARQCREIGH×6KillEloise Brandewieset Katie Dalton+1.8
117-4CREIGHCREIGH×6Attack errCarson Tyler+2.8
127-5CREIGHCREIGH×6BlockedCaydence Doolanblk Eloise Brandewie, Katie Dalton+3.1
137-6CREIGHCREIGH×6KillEloise Brandewie+3.4
147-7CREIGHCREIGH×6KillEloise Brandewieset Katie Dalton+3.6
157-8CREIGHCREIGH×6Attack errCarson Tyler+3.7
168-8CREIGHMARQServe errCreighton+2.8
179-8MARQMARQKillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+3.9
189-9MARQCREIGHKillEloise Brandewieset Katie Dalton+2.9
1910-9CREIGHMARQKillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+3.1
2010-10MARQCREIGHKillAyden Amesset Katie Dalton+3.0
2111-10CREIGHMARQ×6KillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+3.2
2212-10MARQMARQ×6KillJulia Stanev+4.2
2313-10MARQMARQ×6KillLuanna Markus+4.0
2414-10MARQMARQ×6KillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+3.6
2515-10MARQMARQ×6KillJulia Stanev+3.0
2616-10MARQMARQ×6Attack errAyden Ames+2.4
2716-11MARQCREIGHKillAyden Amesset Katie Dalton+1.3
2817-11CREIGHMARQKillBerrak Sporeliset Luanna Markus+1.8
2917-12MARQCREIGHKillAshlyn Paymalset Katie Dalton+1.2
3018-12CREIGHMARQServe errCreighton+1.8
3118-13MARQCREIGH×3Serve errMarquette+1.2
3218-14CREIGHCREIGH×3BlockedAllie Beersblk Eloise Brandewie, Katie Dalton+2.2
3318-15CREIGHCREIGH×3KillAbbey Hayesset Katie Dalton+3.0
3419-15CREIGHMARQ×4KillCaydence Doolanset Luanna Markus+3.0
3520-15MARQMARQ×4Attack errEloise Brandewie+3.0
3621-15MARQMARQ×4Attack errEloise Brandewie+1.9
3722-15MARQMARQ×4BlockedAbbey Hayesblk Molly Welge, Tani Juric+1.0
3822-16MARQCREIGH×4KillEloise Brandewieset Katie Dalton+0.3
3922-17CREIGHCREIGH×4KillAyden Amesset Saige Damrow+0.8
4022-18CREIGHCREIGH×4Serve errCreighton+1.4
4122-19CREIGHCREIGH×4Attack errCaydence Doolan+2.3
4223-19CREIGHMARQServe errCreighton+3.0
4324-19MARQMARQKillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+1.9
4424-20MARQCREIGHKillAyden Amesset Katie Dalton+0.4
4524-21CREIGHCREIGHKillAyden Amesset Katie Dalton+1.1
4625-21CREIGHMARQAttack errAyden Ames+2.9
Set 5
10-1CREIGHCREIGHKillAbbey Hayesset Katie Dalton+8.5
20-2CREIGHCREIGHAttack errCarson Tyler+8.3
31-2CREIGHMARQ×4KillTani Juricset Luanna Markus+6.1
42-2MARQMARQ×4AceMarquetteaced Abbey Hayes+8.8
53-2MARQMARQ×4AceMarquetteaced Saige Damrow+9.2
64-2MARQMARQ×4AceMarquetteaced Abbey Hayes+9.3
74-3MARQCREIGHKillAbbey Hayesset Katie Dalton+6.6
85-3CREIGHMARQServe errCreighton+7.4
95-4MARQCREIGH×4KillAshlyn Paymalset Katie Dalton+6.8
105-5CREIGHCREIGH×4BlockedTani Juricblk Abbey Hayes, Eloise Brandewie+10.0
115-6CREIGHCREIGH×4BlockedTani Juricblk Abbey Hayes, Eloise Brandewie+10.5
125-7CREIGHCREIGH×4Attack errCaydence Doolan+10.3
136-7CREIGHMARQKillMolly Welgeset Tani Juric+7.2
147-7MARQMARQAceMarquetteaced Trinity Shadd-Ceres+11.0
157-8MARQCREIGHKillAbbey Hayesset Katie Dalton+9.0
168-8CREIGHMARQKillCaydence Doolanset Luanna Markus+9.0
178-9MARQCREIGHKillAyden Amesset Saige Damrow+9.7
188-10CREIGHCREIGHAttack errAllie Beers+12.4
199-10CREIGHMARQ×3KillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+8.3
2010-10MARQMARQ×3Attack errAyden Ames+13.7
2111-10MARQMARQ×3KillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+15.6
2211-11MARQCREIGHBlockedCarson Tylerblk Katie Dalton, Nora Wurtz+11.6
2311-12CREIGHCREIGHAttack errCarson Tyler+17.5
2412-12CREIGHMARQKillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+13.0
2512-13MARQCREIGHKillAshlyn Paymalset Katie Dalton+15.9
2613-13CREIGHMARQAttack errNora Wurtz+15.3
2713-14MARQCREIGHKillAshlyn Paymalset Katie Dalton+20.1
2814-14CREIGHMARQServe errCreighton+20.1
2914-15MARQCREIGHAttack errCaydence Doolan+20.1
3015-15CREIGHMARQKillMolly Welgeset Luanna Markus+20.1
3115-16MARQCREIGHKillAbbey Hayesset Katie Dalton+20.1
3216-16CREIGHMARQKillCaydence Doolanset Luanna Markus+20.1
3316-17MARQCREIGHAttack errCarson Tyler+20.1
3417-17CREIGHMARQ×3KillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+20.1
3518-17MARQMARQ×3BlockedAyden Amesblk Julia Stanev, Luanna Markus+26.7
3619-17MARQMARQ×3KillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+27.2

Score shown after each rally, Marquette first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).