Final · 5 setsSun, Oct 25, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Marquette def. Xavier 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: Marquette 88.1% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 25, 2:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Marquette beat visiting Xavier 3-2 (25-17, 14-25, 17-25, 25-15, 16-14) on Sun, Oct 25, 2026. Carson Tyler led Marquette with 23 kills; Xavier's Margo Kemp had a match-high 24.

Data through · final Oct 25

Set12345Sets
XAVIER17252515142
MARQ25141725163

Match story · written from the play-by-play

28 digs from Emi Juric kept Marquette alive against Xavier.

The match turned 3 times; each line shows Marquette's RallyIQ win probability at the start and end of the stretch. Marquette went in as RallyIQ's 88% pick.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 5 · Xavier 2–0 Marquette

    Down 0–2, Marquette scored 3 straight to lead 3–2.

    Marquette 53% → 75%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 5 · Xavier 5–4 Marquette

    Down 4–5, Marquette scored 3 straight to lead 7–5.

    Marquette 59% → 83%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 5 · Xavier 13–13 Marquette

    Marquette won 3 of the last 4 rallies to take the set 16–14 and win the match 3–2.

    Marquette 63% → >99%

Marquette above 50Xavier belowMax swing 19.5%

XavierMarquette

Sideout %
Xavier 55.2·Marquette 55.7
Break %
Xavier 44.3·Marquette 44.8
Hitting
Xavier .230·Marquette .203
Longest run
Xavier 9·Marquette 8

Carson Tyler
23 kills on .271, 26 points; 4 of those kills came in the turning points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Marquette above 50 · Xavier below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 4SET 510050100+19.5% MARQrally 193 · set 5

Biggest swing: 19.5% to Marquette — set 5, XAVIER 14-16 MARQ. Charlotte Moriarty stuffed by Julia Stanev & Tani Juric. MARQ win probability 80% → 100%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

XAVIER 12.6%87.4% MARQ

Xavier wins

3-0
1.8%
3-1
3.9%
3-2
6.8%

Marquette wins

3-0
40.4%
3-1
31.6%
3-2
15.4%
XAVIER break %
38.4% vs this opp
MARQ break %
47.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Charlotte Moriarty stuffed by Julia Stanev & Tani Juric

    Set 5 · XAVIER 14-16 MARQ · MARQ 80% → 100%

  2. 02
    Carson TylerKill+17.3%

    Kill by Carson Tyler (set by Luanna Markus)

    Set 5 · XAVIER 13-14 MARQ · MARQ 63% → 80%

  3. 03
    Margo KempKill+17.3%

    Kill by Margo Kemp (set by Macy Hatkevich)

    Set 5 · XAVIER 14-14 MARQ · XAVIER 20% → 37%

  4. 04
    Carson TylerKill+17.3%

    Kill by Carson Tyler (set by Luanna Markus)

    Set 5 · XAVIER 14-15 MARQ · MARQ 63% → 80%

  5. 05
    Margo KempKill+14.0%

    Kill by Margo Kemp (set by Macy Hatkevich)

    Set 5 · XAVIER 11-11 MARQ · XAVIER 22% → 36%

  6. 06
    Margo KempKill+13.8%

    Kill by Margo Kemp (set by Macy Hatkevich)

    Set 5 · XAVIER 13-13 MARQ · XAVIER 23% → 37%

  7. 07
    Carson TylerKill+13.6%

    Kill by Carson Tyler (set by Luanna Markus)

    Set 5 · XAVIER 12-13 MARQ · MARQ 63% → 77%

  8. 08
    Margo KempKill+11.9%

    Kill by Margo Kemp (set by Macy Hatkevich)

    Set 5 · XAVIER 12-12 MARQ · XAVIER 25% → 37%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Xavieraway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
524746.37000100233.527.5
514742.167003174010.514.5
58328.1790001012210
54112.25045001700004
5000–102610000
1112.000000001012
54010.40000000334.58.5
54321.04800031031.55.5
5000–7313200003
5000–2211000002
4000–000200000
Team totals5922161.23055588867121396
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
523759.27112212002126
510436.16710040010.510.5
56323.1300122014310
55112.333000000005
5229.0004400800002
5001.000001520000
511336.2221001102112
51011.0003132810002
5000–2211010002
3000–000100000
2000–000000000
1125-.200000000001
1000–000000000
Team totals5922182.2035269715195.597

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 9 XAVIER · MARQ 8

Set 1

17-25

Longest run 3 XAVIERMARQ 8

Set 2

25-14

Longest run 9 XAVIERMARQ 3

Set 3

25-17

Longest run 6 XAVIERMARQ 4

Set 4

15-25

Longest run 2 XAVIERMARQ 4

Set 5

14-16

Longest run 2 XAVIERMARQ 3

Bars above the line = Marquette leads, below = Xavier leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Xavier

SlotSideout %Break %
1
55%11/20
33%5/15
2
63%10/16
35%6/17
3
67%10/15
62%16/26
4
38%8/21
44%7/16
5
70%7/10
50%7/14
6
50%7/14
22%2/9
All
55%53/96
44%43/97

Marquette

SlotSideout %Break %
1
57%12/21
36%5/14
2
56%10/18
57%13/23
3
42%10/24
9%1/11
4
50%8/16
62%16/26
5
78%7/9
22%2/9
6
78%7/9
46%6/13
All
56%54/97
45%43/96

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (5 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

193 rallies

#XAVIER-MARQSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0MARQXAVIER×3Attack errCarson Tyler+1.0
22-0XAVIERXAVIER×3KillGabrielle Semonaset Macy Hatkevich+1.5
33-0XAVIERXAVIER×3KillCharlotte Moriartyset Kasey Quenichet+1.6
43-1XAVIERMARQKillTani Juricset Luanna Markus+1.0
54-1MARQXAVIER×3Serve errCarson Tyler+1.2
65-1XAVIERXAVIER×3BlockedJulia Stanevblk Gabrielle Semona+1.7
76-1XAVIERXAVIER×3KillCatherine Flahartyset Macy Hatkevich+1.7
86-2XAVIERMARQAttack errQuinci Thomas+1.0
97-2MARQXAVIERKillMacy Hatkevichset Kelsey Niesen+1.3
107-3XAVIERMARQ×8KillTani Juricset Luanna Markus+1.1
117-4MARQMARQ×8KillMolly Welgeset Luanna Markus+1.6
127-5MARQMARQ×8Attack errMargo Kemp+1.6
137-6MARQMARQ×8AceAllie Beersaced Charlotte Moriarty+1.6
147-7MARQMARQ×8Attack errMacy Hatkevich+1.5
157-8MARQMARQ×8Attack errCatherine Flaharty+1.4
167-9MARQMARQ×8AceAllie Beersaced Charlotte Moriarty+1.3
177-10MARQMARQ×8KillEmma Parksset Luanna Markus+1.1
188-10MARQXAVIERServe errAllie Beers+0.8
198-11XAVIERMARQKillMolly Welgeset Luanna Markus+0.8
209-11MARQXAVIERServe errAvery Helms+0.8
219-12XAVIERMARQKillCarson Tylerset Emi Juric+0.8
2210-12MARQXAVIERKillCharlotte Moriartyset Macy Hatkevich+0.8
2310-13XAVIERMARQAttack errGabrielle Semona+0.9
2411-13MARQXAVIERKillCharlotte Moriartyset Kelsey Niesen+0.9
2511-14XAVIERMARQKillTani Juricset Luanna Markus+0.9
2611-15MARQMARQKillEmma Parksset Luanna Markus+1.0
2712-15MARQXAVIERKillCharlotte Moriartyset Macy Hatkevich+0.6
2812-16XAVIERMARQKillJulia Stanevset Tani Juric+0.7
2913-16MARQXAVIERKillMcKinley Boehmset Macy Hatkevich+0.7
3013-17XAVIERMARQ×3KillMolly Welgeset Emi Juric+0.8
3113-18MARQMARQ×3Bad setMacy Hatkevich+0.7
3213-19MARQMARQ×3KillEmma Parksset Luanna Markus+0.5
3314-19MARQXAVIERKillMargo Kempset Macy Hatkevich+0.2
3414-20XAVIERMARQKillEmma Parksset Luanna Markus+0.3
3515-20MARQXAVIERKillMargo Kempset Macy Hatkevich+0.2
3615-21XAVIERMARQKillMolly Welgeset Luanna Markus+0.3
3715-22MARQMARQKillJulia Stanev+0.2
3816-22MARQXAVIERKillCharlotte Moriartyset Kelsey Niesen+0.1
3916-23XAVIERMARQServe errMargo Kemp+0.1
4017-23MARQXAVIERKillCharlotte Moriartyset Macy Hatkevich·
4117-24XAVIERMARQKillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+0.1
4217-25MARQMARQBad setMacy Hatkevich·
Set 2
10-1XAVIERMARQKillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+0.6
21-1MARQXAVIERKillCharlotte Moriartyset Macy Hatkevich+0.6
31-2XAVIERMARQServe errCharlotte Moriarty+0.6
42-2MARQXAVIER×9KillMcKinley Boehmset Macy Hatkevich+0.7
53-2XAVIERXAVIER×9KillMargo Kempset Macy Hatkevich+1.0
64-2XAVIERXAVIER×9KillQuinci Thomasset Macy Hatkevich+1.1
75-2XAVIERXAVIER×9AceKelsey Niesenaced Emma Parks+1.2
86-2XAVIERXAVIER×9KillMargo Kemp+1.2
97-2XAVIERXAVIER×9Attack errEmma Parks+1.3
108-2XAVIERXAVIER×9BlockedCaydence Doolanblk Catherine Flaharty, Margo Kemp+1.2
119-2XAVIERXAVIER×9BlockedCarson Tylerblk Margo Kemp+1.1
1210-2XAVIERXAVIER×9BlockedTani Juricblk Quinci Thomas, Margo Kemp+1.0
1310-3XAVIERMARQKillCaydence Doolanset Luanna Markus+0.5
1410-4MARQMARQAttack errMargo Kemp+0.8
1511-4MARQXAVIER×3KillCatherine Flahartyset Macy Hatkevich+0.8
1612-4XAVIERXAVIER×3Attack errCaydence Doolan+1.0
1713-4XAVIERXAVIER×3Bad setLuanna Markus+0.8
1813-5XAVIERMARQAttack errMargo Kemp+0.4
1913-6MARQMARQAttack errQuinci Thomas+0.6
2014-6MARQXAVIERKillMargo Kempset Macy Hatkevich+0.7
2114-7XAVIERMARQKillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+0.4
2215-7MARQXAVIER×3KillMargo Kempset Macy Hatkevich+0.7
2316-7XAVIERXAVIER×3Attack errCarson Tyler+0.7
2417-7XAVIERXAVIER×3BlockedLuanna Markusblk McKinley Boehm+0.4
2517-8XAVIERMARQ×3KillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+0.2
2617-9MARQMARQ×3Attack errCharlotte Moriarty+0.3
2717-10MARQMARQ×3KillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+0.5
2818-10MARQXAVIERServe errMolly Welge+0.6
2918-11XAVIERMARQKillJulia Stanevset Luanna Markus+0.3
3019-11MARQXAVIER×3BlockedCarson Tylerblk McKinley Boehm+0.5
3120-11XAVIERXAVIER×3BlockedCarson Tylerblk Catherine Flaharty+0.4
3221-11XAVIERXAVIER×3KillCatherine Flahartyset Macy Hatkevich+0.2
3321-12XAVIERMARQServe errCharlotte Moriarty+0.1
3421-13MARQMARQAceCarson Tyleraced Quinci Thomas+0.1
3522-13MARQXAVIERKillCatherine Flahartyset Macy Hatkevich+0.2
3623-13XAVIERXAVIERKillQuinci Thomasset Macy Hatkevich+0.1
3723-14XAVIERMARQKillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus·
3824-14MARQXAVIERAttack errTani Juric·
3925-14XAVIERXAVIERKillMargo Kempset Macy Hatkevich·
Set 3
10-1MARQMARQKillTani Juricset Luanna Markus+2.0
21-1MARQXAVIER×3Serve errEmi Juric+1.6
32-1XAVIERXAVIER×3Attack errEmma Parks+2.4
43-1XAVIERXAVIER×3Attack errMolly Welge+2.7
53-2XAVIERMARQServe errCharlotte Moriarty+1.8
64-2MARQXAVIER×3KillCatherine Flahartyset Macy Hatkevich+2.1
75-2XAVIERXAVIER×3AceKelsey Niesenaced Allie Beers+3.0
86-2XAVIERXAVIER×3BlockedLuanna Markusblk Margo Kemp+3.1
96-3XAVIERMARQKillLuanna Markusset Emi Juric+1.9
107-3MARQXAVIER×4KillQuinci Thomasset Kelsey Niesen+2.4
118-3XAVIERXAVIER×4KillMargo Kempset Macy Hatkevich+3.2
129-3XAVIERXAVIER×4Attack errCarson Tyler+3.1
1310-3XAVIERXAVIER×4AceJenna Barhorstaced Avery Helms+2.8
1410-4XAVIERMARQ×3Serve errJenna Barhorst+1.5
1510-5MARQMARQ×3AceMolly Welgeaced Charlotte Moriarty+2.4
1610-6MARQMARQ×3Attack errMargo Kemp+2.7
1711-6MARQXAVIER×6KillMargo Kempset Macy Hatkevich+2.6
1812-6XAVIERXAVIER×6KillCharlotte Moriartyset Macy Hatkevich+3.2
1913-6XAVIERXAVIER×6KillMacy Hatkevichset Kelsey Niesen+2.8
2014-6XAVIERXAVIER×6KillMargo Kemp+2.3
2115-6XAVIERXAVIER×6KillMargo Kempset Macy Hatkevich+1.8
2216-6XAVIERXAVIER×6KillCharlotte Moriartyset Macy Hatkevich+1.2
2316-7XAVIERMARQServe errKasey Quenichet+0.5
2417-7MARQXAVIERKillCharlotte Moriartyset Macy Hatkevich+0.8
2517-8XAVIERMARQ×3KillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+0.4
2617-9MARQMARQ×3KillTani Juricset Carson Tyler+0.8
2717-10MARQMARQ×3AceCarson Tyleraced Kasey Quenichet+1.2
2818-10MARQXAVIERKillCharlotte Moriartyset Macy Hatkevich+1.4
2918-11XAVIERMARQKillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+0.7
3019-11MARQXAVIERServe errEmi Juric+1.3
3119-12XAVIERMARQ×4KillTani Juricset Emma Parks+0.6
3219-13MARQMARQ×4Attack errCharlotte Moriarty+1.3
3319-14MARQMARQ×4KillEmma Parksset Luanna Markus+1.8
3419-15MARQMARQ×4KillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+2.4
3520-15MARQXAVIER×3KillCatherine Flahartyset Macy Hatkevich+2.8
3621-15XAVIERXAVIER×3Attack errMolly Welge+2.6
3722-15XAVIERXAVIER×3AceKelsey Niesenaced Emi Juric+1.5
3822-16XAVIERMARQKillEmma Parksset Luanna Markus+0.4
3923-16MARQXAVIERKillMargo Kempset Macy Hatkevich+0.9
4024-16XAVIERXAVIERAceJenna Barhorstaced Avery Helms+0.4
4124-17XAVIERMARQKillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus·
4225-17MARQXAVIERKillMacy Hatkevichset Jenna Barhorst+0.1
Set 4
11-0XAVIERXAVIERAttack errEmma Parks+4.1
22-0XAVIERXAVIERBlockedMolly Welgeblk Quinci Thomas, McKinley Boehm+4.5
32-1XAVIERMARQ×4KillEmma Parksset Luanna Markus+3.0
42-2MARQMARQ×4KillEmi Juricset Allie Beers+4.0
52-3MARQMARQ×4BlockedCatherine Flahartyblk Molly Welge, Carson Tyler+3.7
62-4MARQMARQ×4Attack errQuinci Thomas+3.3
73-4MARQXAVIERKillMcKinley Boehmset Macy Hatkevich+2.5
83-5XAVIERMARQServe errKelsey Niesen+2.4
94-5MARQXAVIERServe errMolly Welge+2.6
104-6XAVIERMARQ×3KillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+2.5
114-7MARQMARQ×3KillJulia Stanev+3.0
124-8MARQMARQ×3Attack errMargo Kemp+2.5
135-8MARQXAVIERKillQuinci Thomasset Kelsey Niesen+1.8
145-9XAVIERMARQKillTani Juricset Luanna Markus+1.9
156-9MARQXAVIERKillMargo Kempset Macy Hatkevich+1.8
167-9XAVIERXAVIERBlockedTani Juricblk McKinley Boehm+3.1
177-10XAVIERMARQ×4Attack errCharlotte Moriarty+2.4
187-11MARQMARQ×4Attack errCharlotte Moriarty+2.7
197-12MARQMARQ×4AceEmi Juricaced Charlotte Moriarty+2.1
207-13MARQMARQ×4Attack errCharlotte Moriarty+1.6
218-13MARQXAVIERKillCharlotte Moriartyset Macy Hatkevich+1.0
228-14XAVIERMARQKillTani Juricset Luanna Markus+1.1
239-14MARQXAVIERKillCharlotte Moriartyset Macy Hatkevich+0.9
249-15XAVIERMARQKillLuanna Markusset Emi Juric+1.1
2510-15MARQXAVIERKillCatherine Flahartyset Macy Hatkevich+0.9
2610-16XAVIERMARQKillCarson Tylerset Allie Beers+1.1
2711-16MARQXAVIERKillMargo Kempset Macy Hatkevich+0.9
2811-17XAVIERMARQKillTani Juricset Luanna Markus+1.1
2912-17MARQXAVIERKillMargo Kempset Macy Hatkevich+0.8
3012-18XAVIERMARQKillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+1.1
3113-18MARQXAVIERKillMargo Kempset Macy Hatkevich+0.8
3213-19XAVIERMARQKillEmma Parksset Luanna Markus+1.0
3314-19MARQXAVIERServe errEmi Juric+0.7
3414-20XAVIERMARQKillMolly Welgeset Luanna Markus+1.0
3514-21MARQMARQBlockedCharlotte Moriartyblk Emma Parks, Molly Welge+0.7
3615-21MARQXAVIERBlockedCarson Tylerblk McKinley Boehm, Catherine Flaharty+0.3
3715-22XAVIERMARQ×4KillEmma Parksset Luanna Markus+0.4
3815-23MARQMARQ×4KillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+0.2
3915-24MARQMARQ×4BlockedCatherine Flahartyblk Molly Welge, Carson Tyler·
4015-25MARQMARQ×4KillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+1.0
Set 5
11-0XAVIERXAVIERKillMargo Kempset Macy Hatkevich+8.2
22-0XAVIERXAVIERKillMargo Kempset Macy Hatkevich+9.2
32-1XAVIERMARQ×3KillEmma Parksset Luanna Markus+5.9
42-2MARQMARQ×3BlockedMargo Kempblk Molly Welge+8.2
52-3MARQMARQ×3KillEmma Parksset Luanna Markus+7.7
63-3MARQXAVIERKillCatherine Flahartyset Macy Hatkevich+6.1
73-4XAVIERMARQKillMolly Welgeset Luanna Markus+5.8
84-4MARQXAVIERKillMargo Kempset Macy Hatkevich+6.4
95-4XAVIERXAVIERKillMacy Hatkevichset Kelsey Niesen+10.0
105-5XAVIERMARQ×3Serve errKasey Quenichet+6.8
115-6MARQMARQ×3KillCarson Tyler+9.1
125-7MARQMARQ×3KillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+8.1
136-7MARQXAVIERKillMargo Kempset Macy Hatkevich+5.8
146-8XAVIERMARQKillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+6.1
157-8MARQXAVIERKillCharlotte Moriartyset Jenna Barhorst+6.1
168-8XAVIERXAVIERBlockedTani Juricblk McKinley Boehm, Charlotte Moriarty+10.7
178-9XAVIERMARQKillJulia Stanevset Luanna Markus+8.1
189-9MARQXAVIERServe errCarson Tyler+8.8
199-10XAVIERMARQKillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+8.9
209-11MARQMARQKillTani Juricset Luanna Markus+10.8
2110-11MARQXAVIERKillMcKinley Boehmset Macy Hatkevich+7.1
2211-11XAVIERXAVIERKillMargo Kempset Macy Hatkevich+14.0
2311-12XAVIERMARQBlockedMargo Kempblk Emma Parks, Molly Welge+11.4
2412-12MARQXAVIERKillMargo Kempset Macy Hatkevich+11.9
2512-13XAVIERMARQKillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+13.6
2613-13MARQXAVIERKillMargo Kempset Macy Hatkevich+13.8
2713-14XAVIERMARQKillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+17.3
2814-14MARQXAVIERKillMargo Kempset Macy Hatkevich+17.3
2914-15XAVIERMARQKillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+17.3
3014-16MARQMARQBlockedCharlotte Moriartyblk Julia Stanev, Tani Juric+19.5

Score shown after each rally, Xavier first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).