Final · 4 setsFri, Aug 28, 2026 · Neutral site

Denver def. Central Ark. 3–1

Denver beat Central Ark. 3-1 (26-24, 25-17, 18-25, 25-11) on Fri, Aug 28, 2026 at a neutral site. Denver's Kayla Patel led with 15 kills, and Lily Van Hal added 15 digs.

Data through · final Aug 28

Set1234Sets
DENVER262518253
C ARK241725111

Win probability

Central Ark. above 50 · Denver below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+9.6% DENVERrally 171 · set 4

Biggest swing: 9.6% to Denver — set 1, DENVER 24-24 C ARK. Kill by Jamia Johnson (set by Madison Winkler). C ARK win probability 42% → 33%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

DENVER 71.6%28.4% C ARK

Denver wins

3-0
24.4%
3-1
27.4%
3-2
19.7%

Central Ark. wins

3-0
5.3%
3-1
9.9%
3-2
13.2%
DENVER break %
44.2% vs this opp
C ARK break %
39.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Jamia JohnsonKill+9.6%

    Kill by Jamia Johnson (set by Madison Winkler)

    Set 1 · DENVER 24-24 C ARK · DENVER 58% → 67%

  2. 02

    Kill by Madison Winkler (set by Sophie Skinner)

    Set 1 · DENVER 25-24 C ARK · DENVER 67% → 76%

  3. 03
    Nicole SargentAttack error+7.8%

    Attack error by Nicole Sargent

    Set 1 · DENVER 26-24 C ARK · DENVER 76% → 84%

  4. 04
    Jamia JohnsonKill+4.2%

    Kill by Jamia Johnson (set by Madison Winkler)

    Set 1 · DENVER 23-24 C ARK · DENVER 54% → 58%

  5. 05
    Madison WinklerBad set+2.6%

    Bad set by Madison Winkler

    Set 1 · DENVER 3-6 C ARK · C ARK 34% → 36%

  6. 06
    McKinzee HaasKill+2.5%

    Kill by McKinzee Haas (set by Olivia Kremer)

    Set 1 · DENVER 3-7 C ARK · C ARK 36% → 39%

  7. 07
    Sarah CarnathanAttack error+2.5%

    Attack error by Sarah Carnathan

    Set 4 · DENVER 1-0 C ARK · DENVER 85% → 87%

  8. 08

    Kayla Patel stuffed by Nicole Sargent & McKinzee Haas

    Set 1 · DENVER 0-3 C ARK · C ARK 33% → 35%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Denveraway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
415529.34513182010.518.5
413324.4171002100013
49524.1670002002110
46215.26700020031.57.5
45113.308002200216
4014-.25027021500000
410221.3811000002111
4104.2505101120002
4001.0001903400000
3000–000100000
Team totals5919135.2965448476010594
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
412427.29601100052.515.5
410833.06101050010.511.5
47314.28600000233.510.5
44519-.053010521227
4004.0001411600001
2247-.28600000031.53.5
4206.333190000010.52.5
4002.000120910002
4000–100700000
3104.25000000010.51.5
3000–100200000
23412-.083000100003
1000–000000000
1000–000000000
Team totals4128128.10236623543161177

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 7 DENVER · C ARK 8

Set 1

26-24

Longest run 7 DENVERC ARK 7

Set 2

25-17

Longest run 3 DENVERC ARK 4

Set 3

18-25

Longest run 4 DENVERC ARK 8

Set 4

25-11

Longest run 7 DENVERC ARK 2

Bars above the line = Central Ark. leads, below = Denver leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Denver

SlotSideout %Break %
1
100%7/7
42%5/12
2
86%6/7
54%7/13
3
67%6/9
25%2/8
4
63%5/8
55%6/11
5
31%5/16
55%6/11
6
83%5/6
62%8/13
All
64%34/53
50%34/68

Central Ark.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
58%7/12
0%0/5
2
46%6/13
13%1/8
3
55%6/11
25%2/8
4
45%5/11
33%3/9
5
63%5/8
62%8/13
6
38%5/13
50%5/10
All
50%34/68
36%19/53

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

171 rallies

#DENVER-C ARKSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1C ARKC ARK×4BlockedKayla Patelblk Nicole Sargent, McKinzee Haas+2.2
20-2C ARKC ARK×4Attack errJamia Johnson+2.3
30-3C ARKC ARK×4BlockedKayla Patelblk Nicole Sargent, McKinzee Haas+2.4
40-4C ARKC ARK×4AceCentral Ark.aced Madison Winkler+2.4
51-4C ARKDENVER×3KillJamia Johnsonset Lily Van Hal+1.5
62-4DENVERDENVER×3Attack errSarah Carnathan+2.2
73-4DENVERDENVER×3Attack errNicole Sargent+2.3
83-5DENVERC ARK×7KillSarah Carnathanset Sophie Skinner+1.8
93-6C ARKC ARK×7Bad setMadison Winkler+2.6
103-7C ARKC ARK×7KillMcKinzee Haasset Olivia Kremer+2.5
113-8C ARKC ARK×7Attack errAlicia Thibodeau+2.4
123-9C ARKC ARK×7BlockedIzabela Molinablk Nicole Sargent, McKinzee Haas+2.1
133-10C ARKC ARK×7KillElla Chaneyset Cameron McDaniel+1.8
143-11C ARKC ARK×7Attack errJamia Johnson+1.5
154-11C ARKDENVERAttack errNicole Sargent+0.8
164-12DENVERC ARKBlockedJamia Johnsonblk McKinzee Haas, Ella Chaney+1.1
175-12C ARKDENVERKillJamia Johnsonset Lily Van Hal+0.7
185-13DENVERC ARKServe errDenver+1.0
195-14C ARKC ARKBad setHailey Goebel+1.0
206-14C ARKDENVERKillAlicia Thibodeauset Ilayda Eren+0.5
216-15DENVERC ARKKillMcKinzee Haasset Tatelyn Brandsma+0.7
226-16C ARKC ARKBlockedElise Hartblk Karlyn Frazier+0.6
237-16C ARKDENVERKillKayla Patelset Ilayda Eren+0.3
247-17DENVERC ARKAttack errHailey Goebel+0.4
258-17C ARKDENVER×3KillKayla Patelset Ilayda Eren+0.2
269-17DENVERDENVER×3KillJamia Johnsonset Lily Van Hal+0.5
2710-17DENVERDENVER×3KillIzabela Molinaset Madison Winkler+0.7
2810-18DENVERC ARKKillSarah Carnathanset Tatelyn Brandsma+0.8
2911-18C ARKDENVERKillIzabela Molinaset Lily Van Hal+0.4
3011-19DENVERC ARKKillSarah Carnathanset Sophie Skinner+0.7
3112-19C ARKDENVERKillAlicia Thibodeauset Lily Van Hal+0.4
3212-20DENVERC ARKBad setJamia Johnson+0.6
3313-20C ARKDENVER×3KillAlicia Thibodeauset Lily Van Hal+0.3
3414-20DENVERDENVER×3Attack errKarlyn Frazier+0.6
3515-20DENVERDENVER×3Attack errElla Chaney+1.0
3615-21DENVERC ARKKillNicole Sargentset Sophie Skinner+1.2
3716-21C ARKDENVERKillHailey Goebelset Ilayda Eren+0.6
3816-22DENVERC ARKBlockedHailey Goebelblk Ella Chaney+1.1
3917-22C ARKDENVERKillHailey Goebelset Ilayda Eren+0.4
4017-23DENVERC ARKKillKarlyn Frazierset Tatelyn Brandsma+0.9
4118-23C ARKDENVERKillKayla Patelset Ilayda Eren+0.3
4219-23DENVERDENVERBlockedSarah Carnathanblk Izabela Molina, Jamia Johnson+0.8
4319-24DENVERC ARKKillSarah Carnathanset Tatelyn Brandsma+1.1
4420-24DENVER
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.3
4521-24DENVERDENVER×7KillKayla Patelset Lily Van Hal+0.8
4622-24DENVERDENVER×7Attack errSarah Carnathan+1.9
4723-24DENVERDENVER×7KillJamia Johnsonset Madison Winkler+4.2
4824-24DENVERDENVER×7KillJamia Johnsonset Madison Winkler+9.6
4925-24DENVERDENVER×7KillMadison Winklerset Sophie Skinner+8.6
5026-24DENVERDENVER×7Attack errNicole Sargent+7.8
Set 2
10-1DENVERC ARKServe errDenver+1.3
21-1C ARKDENVER×3Attack errElla Chaney+1.3
32-1DENVERDENVER×3AceDenveraced Cameron McDaniel+1.7
43-1DENVERDENVER×3Attack errMcKinzee Haas+1.6
53-2DENVERC ARKKillMcKinzee Haasset Sophie Skinner+1.2
64-2C ARKDENVERKillAlicia Thibodeauset Lily Van Hal+1.2
74-3DENVERC ARKKillNicole Sargentset Sophie Skinner+1.2
85-3C ARKDENVERKillIzabela Molinaset Lily Van Hal+1.2
95-4DENVERC ARKKillElla Chaneyset Tatelyn Brandsma+1.2
105-5C ARKC ARKKillKarlyn Frazierset Ilayda Eren+1.9
116-5C ARKDENVERKillAlicia Thibodeauset Hailey Goebel+1.4
127-5DENVERDENVERKillKayla Patelset Ilayda Eren+1.8
137-6DENVERC ARK×4KillSarah Carnathanset Tatelyn Brandsma+1.3
147-7C ARKC ARK×4KillTatelyn Brandsmaset Trinity Hamilton+2.0
157-8C ARKC ARK×4KillMcKinzee Haasset Tatelyn Brandsma+2.2
167-9C ARKC ARK×4AceCentral Ark.aced Alicia Thibodeau+2.3
178-9C ARKDENVERKillHailey Goebelset Ilayda Eren+1.5
189-9DENVERDENVERAceDenveraced Ella Chaney+2.2
199-10DENVERC ARKKillMcKinzee Haasset Sophie Skinner+1.7
2010-10C ARKDENVER×3Serve errCentral Ark.+1.6
2111-10DENVERDENVER×3Attack errNicole Sargent+2.2
2212-10DENVERDENVER×3Attack errElla Chaney+2.1
2312-11DENVERC ARKKillMcKinzee Haasset Sophie Skinner+1.5
2413-11C ARKDENVERKillKayla Patelset Madison Winkler+1.6
2513-12DENVERC ARKKillMcKinzee Haasset Sophie Skinner+1.5
2614-12C ARKDENVERKillElise Hartset Lily Van Hal+1.6
2714-13DENVERC ARKAttack errLily Van Hal+1.6
2815-13C ARKDENVERKillJamia Johnsonset Lily Van Hal+1.7
2915-14DENVERC ARKKillKarlyn Frazierset Tatelyn Brandsma+1.6
3016-14C ARKDENVERKillIzabela Molinaset Ilayda Eren+1.8
3117-14DENVERDENVERAttack errSarah Carnathan+2.2
3217-15DENVERC ARKKillSarah Carnathanset Tatelyn Brandsma+1.4
3318-15C ARKDENVERKillKayla Patelset Ilayda Eren+1.6
3419-15DENVERDENVERBlockedMcKinzee Haasblk Elise Hart, Kayla Patel+1.7
3519-16DENVERC ARKKillSarah Carnathanset Tatelyn Brandsma+0.9
3620-16C ARKDENVER×3KillHailey Goebelset Ilayda Eren+1.3
3721-16DENVERDENVER×3Attack errElla Chaney+1.1
3822-16DENVERDENVER×3KillKayla Patelset Lily Van Hal+0.6
3922-17DENVERC ARKKillMcKinzee Haasset Tatelyn Brandsma+0.2
4023-17C ARKDENVER×3KillElise Hartset Lily Van Hal+0.4
4124-17DENVERDENVER×3KillJamia Johnsonset Kayla Patel+0.2
4225-17DENVERDENVER×3AceDenveraced Ella Chaney·
Set 3
11-0C ARKDENVERKillElise Hartset Lily Van Hal+0.7
21-1DENVERC ARKServe errDenver+0.7
32-1C ARKDENVERKillKayla Patel+0.7
42-2DENVERC ARKServe errDenver+0.7
52-3C ARKC ARKKillKennady Martindale+1.1
63-3C ARKDENVERKillJamia Johnsonset Lily Van Hal+0.7
74-3DENVERDENVERKillAlicia Thibodeauset Lily Van Hal+1.0
84-4DENVERC ARKServe errDenver+0.8
95-4C ARKDENVERKillIzabela Molinaset Lily Van Hal+0.7
105-5DENVERC ARK×8Serve errDenver+0.8
115-6C ARKC ARK×8BlockedIzabela Molinablk Karlyn Frazier+1.2
125-7C ARKC ARK×8Attack errAlicia Thibodeau+1.2
135-8C ARKC ARK×8KillSarah Carnathanset Tatelyn Brandsma+1.2
145-9C ARKC ARK×8KillAlicia Thibodeauset Ilayda Eren+1.2
155-10C ARKC ARK×8Attack errKayla Patel+1.1
165-11C ARKC ARK×8BlockedAlicia Thibodeaublk Tatelyn Brandsma, Karlyn Frazier+1.0
175-12C ARKC ARK×8AceCentral Ark.aced Madison Winkler+0.8
186-12C ARKDENVERKillHailey Goebelset Ilayda Eren+0.4
196-13DENVERC ARKKillElla Chaney+0.6
206-14C ARKC ARKAceCentral Ark.+0.6
217-14C ARKDENVERKillKayla Patelset Lily Van Hal+0.3
227-15DENVERC ARKKillSarah Carnathanset Tatelyn Brandsma+0.4
238-15C ARKDENVERKillKayla Patelset Lily Van Hal+0.3
248-16DENVERC ARKKillMcKinzee Haasset Sophie Skinner+0.4
258-17C ARKC ARKAceCentral Ark.aced Kayla Patel+0.4
269-17C ARKDENVERKillKayla Patelset Lily Van Hal+0.2
279-18DENVERC ARKKillKennady Martindaleset Sophie Skinner+0.2
289-19C ARKC ARKAceCentral Ark.aced Kayla Patel+0.2
2910-19C ARKDENVER×3Serve errCentral Ark.+0.1
3011-19DENVERDENVER×3KillJamia Johnsonset Sophie Skinner+0.1
3112-19DENVERDENVER×3Attack errKennady Martindale+0.2
3212-20DENVERC ARK×3Serve errDenver+0.3
3312-21C ARKC ARK×3Attack errJamia Johnson+0.2
3412-22C ARKC ARK×3KillTatelyn Brandsmaset Lily Van Hal+0.1
3513-22C ARKDENVER×4BlockedKennady Martindaleblk Izabela Molina, Jamia Johnson·
3614-22DENVERDENVER×4Attack errKennady Martindale·
3715-22DENVERDENVER×4Attack errKarlyn Frazier+0.1
3816-22DENVERDENVER×4KillAlicia Thibodeauset Madison Winkler+0.2
3916-23DENVERC ARKServe errDenver+0.2
4017-23C ARKDENVERKillHailey Goebelset Ilayda Eren+0.1
4117-24DENVERC ARKKillKarlyn Frazierset Tatelyn Brandsma+0.1
4218-24C ARKDENVERKillKayla Patelset Ilayda Eren·
4318-25DENVERC ARKKillMcKinzee Haasset Tatelyn Brandsma+0.1
Set 4
11-0DENVERDENVERAttack errSarah Carnathan+2.5
21-1DENVERC ARKKillMcKinzee Haasset Sophie Skinner+1.8
32-1C ARKDENVER×4KillKayla Patelset Lily Van Hal+1.8
43-1DENVERDENVER×4KillAlicia Thibodeauset Lily Van Hal+2.4
54-1DENVERDENVER×4AceDenver+2.2
65-1DENVERDENVER×4Attack errKennady Martindale+1.9
75-2DENVERC ARKKillAnnie Hopkinsset Sophie Skinner+1.3
86-2C ARKDENVER×3KillJamia Johnsonset Lily Van Hal+1.4
97-2DENVERDENVER×3Bad setAnnie Hopkins+1.7
108-2DENVERDENVER×3KillAlicia Thibodeauset Lily Van Hal+1.4
118-3DENVERC ARKKillElla Chaneyset Sophie Skinner+0.8
128-4C ARKC ARKBlockedJamia Johnsonblk Karlyn Frazier, Ella Chaney+1.5
139-4C ARKDENVERKillIzabela Molinaset Lily Van Hal+1.2
149-5DENVERC ARKKillKarlyn Frazierset Tatelyn Brandsma+1.1
1510-5C ARKDENVERKillHailey Goebelset Ilayda Eren+1.2
1611-5DENVERDENVERKillKayla Patelset Alicia Thibodeau+1.4
1711-6DENVERC ARKKillKarlyn Frazierset Tatelyn Brandsma+0.8
1811-7C ARKC ARKKillSarah Carnathanset Tatelyn Brandsma+1.5
1912-7C ARKDENVER×7Attack errSarah Carnathan+1.3
2013-7DENVERDENVER×7KillMcKinzee Haasset Madison Winkler+1.4
2114-7DENVERDENVER×7KillHailey Goebelset Ilayda Eren+1.0
2215-7DENVERDENVER×7Attack errMcKinzee Haas+0.7
2316-7DENVERDENVER×7Attack errSarah Carnathan+0.4
2417-7DENVERDENVER×7BlockedSarah Carnathanblk Elise Hart, Hailey Goebel+0.2
2518-7DENVERDENVER×7Attack errMcKinzee Haas+0.1
2618-8DENVERC ARKAttack errKayla Patel·
2719-8C ARKDENVERKillHailey Goebelset Ilayda Eren+0.1
2819-9DENVERC ARKAttack errJamia Johnson·
2920-9C ARKDENVERKillElise Hartset Lily Van Hal+0.1
3020-10DENVERC ARKKillMcKinzee Haasset Sophie Skinner·
3121-10C ARKDENVERKillElise Hartset Lily Van Hal·
3221-11DENVERC ARKKillKarlyn Frazierset Sophie Skinner·
3322-11C ARKDENVER×4KillAlicia Thibodeauset Lily Van Hal·
3423-11DENVERDENVER×4KillAlicia Thibodeauset Ilayda Eren·
3524-11DENVERDENVER×4BlockedElla Chaneyblk Izabela Molina, Hailey Goebel·
3625-11DENVERDENVER×4Attack errKarlyn Frazier·

Score shown after each rally, Denver first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).