CollegeVolleyball
Final · 4 setsFri, Aug 28, 2026

Denver def. Central Ark. 31

(26-24, 25-17, 18-25, 25-11)
Set1*234Sets
DENVER262518253
C ARK241725111
  • * Set 1: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.

RallyIQ model

Win probability

C ARK above 50 · DENVER below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100C ARKDENVERBiggest swing +9.0% DENVER · S1 24-24rally 171 · set 4

Biggest swing: 9.0% to Denver — set 1, DENVER 24-24 C ARK. Kill by Jamia Johnson (set by Madison Winkler). C ARK win probability 37%28%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

DENVER 76.2%23.8% C ARK

Denver wins

3-0
28.0%
3-1
29.1%
3-2
19.1%

Central Ark. wins

3-0
4.1%
3-1
8.1%
3-2
11.6%
DENVER break %
45.7% vs this opp
C ARK break %
40.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

  1. 01
    Jamia JohnsonKill+9.0%

    Kill by Jamia Johnson (set by Madison Winkler)

    Set 1 · DENVER 24-24 C ARK · DENVER 63%72%

  2. 02

    Kill by Madison Winkler (set by Sophie Skinner)

    Set 1 · DENVER 25-24 C ARK · DENVER 72%80%

  3. 03
    Nicole SargentAttack error+7.0%

    Attack error by Nicole Sargent

    Set 1 · DENVER 26-24 C ARK · DENVER 80%87%

  4. 04
    Jamia JohnsonKill+4.1%

    Kill by Jamia Johnson (set by Madison Winkler)

    Set 1 · DENVER 23-24 C ARK · DENVER 59%63%

  5. 05
    Madison WinklerBad set+2.4%

    Bad set by Madison Winkler

    Set 1 · DENVER 3-6 C ARK · C ARK 29%31%

  6. 06
    McKinzee HaasKill+2.4%

    Kill by McKinzee Haas (set by Olivia Kremer)

    Set 1 · DENVER 3-7 C ARK · C ARK 31%33%

  7. 07
    Alicia ThibodeauAttack error+2.3%

    Attack error by Alicia Thibodeau

    Set 1 · DENVER 3-8 C ARK · C ARK 33%36%

  8. 08
    C ARK serverAce+2.2%

    Central Ark. ace on Madison Winkler

    Set 1 · DENVER 0-4 C ARK · C ARK 30%32%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Denveraway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
415529.34513182010.518.5
413324.4171002100013
49524.1670002002110
46215.26700020031.57.5
45113.308002200216
4014-.25027021500000
410221.3811000002111
4104.2505101120002
4001.0001903400000
3000000100000
Team totals5919135.2965448476010594
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
412427.29601100052.515.5
410833.06101050010.511.5
47314.28600000233.510.5
44519-.053010521227
4004.0001411600001
2247-.28600000031.53.5
4206.333190000010.52.5
4002.000120910002
4000100700000
3104.25000000010.51.5
3000100200000
23412-.083000100003
1000000000000
1000000000000
Team totals4128128.10236623543161177

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 7 DENVER · C ARK 8

Set 1*

26-24

Longest run 7 DENVERC ARK 7

Set 2

25-17

Longest run 3 DENVERC ARK 4

Set 3

18-25

Longest run 4 DENVERC ARK 8

Set 4

25-11

Longest run 7 DENVERC ARK 2

Bars above the line = Central Ark. leads, below = Denver leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Denver

SlotSideout %Break %
1
100%7/7
42%5/12
2
86%6/7
54%7/13
3
67%6/9
25%2/8
4
63%5/8
55%6/11
5
31%5/16
55%6/11
6
83%5/6
62%8/13
All
64%34/53
50%34/68

Central Ark.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
58%7/12
0%0/5
2
46%6/13
13%1/8
3
55%6/11
25%2/8
4
45%5/11
33%3/9
5
63%5/8
62%8/13
6
38%5/13
50%5/10
All
50%34/68
36%19/53

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

171 rallies

Rally log

#DENVER-C ARKSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1C ARKC ARK×4Attack errKayla Patelblk Nicole Sargent, McKinzee Haas+2.0
20-2C ARKC ARK×4Attack errJamia Johnson+2.1
30-3C ARKC ARK×4Attack errKayla Patelblk Nicole Sargent, McKinzee Haas+2.2
40-4C ARKC ARK×4AceC ARK serveraced Madison Winkler+2.2
51-4C ARKDENVER×3KillJamia Johnsonset Lily Van Hal+1.5
62-4DENVERDENVER×3Attack errSarah Carnathan+2.1
73-4DENVERDENVER×3Attack errNicole Sargent+2.1
83-5DENVERC ARK×7KillSarah Carnathanset Sophie Skinner+1.8
93-6C ARKC ARK×7Bad setMadison Winkler+2.4
103-7C ARKC ARK×7KillMcKinzee Haasset Olivia Kremer+2.4
113-8C ARKC ARK×7Attack errAlicia Thibodeau+2.3
123-9C ARKC ARK×7Attack errIzabela Molinablk Nicole Sargent, McKinzee Haas+2.1
133-10C ARKC ARK×7KillElla Chaneyset Cameron McDaniel+1.8
143-11C ARKC ARK×7Attack errJamia Johnson+1.5
154-11C ARKDENVERAttack errNicole Sargent+0.8
164-12DENVERC ARKAttack errJamia Johnsonblk McKinzee Haas, Ella Chaney+1.1
175-12C ARKDENVERKillJamia Johnsonset Lily Van Hal+0.8
185-13DENVERC ARKServe errDENVER server+1.1
195-14C ARKC ARKBad setHailey Goebel+1.1
206-14C ARKDENVERKillAlicia Thibodeauset Ilayda Eren+0.5
216-15DENVERC ARKKillMcKinzee Haasset Tatelyn Brandsma+0.8
226-16C ARKC ARKAttack errElise Hartblk Karlyn Frazier+0.7
237-16C ARKDENVERKillKayla Patelset Ilayda Eren+0.3
247-17DENVERC ARKAttack errHailey Goebel+0.5
258-17C ARKDENVER×3KillKayla Patelset Ilayda Eren+0.3
269-17DENVERDENVER×3KillJamia Johnsonset Lily Van Hal+0.5
2710-17DENVERDENVER×3KillIzabela Molinaset Madison Winkler+0.7
2810-18DENVERC ARKKillSarah Carnathanset Tatelyn Brandsma+0.9
2911-18C ARKDENVERKillIzabela Molinaset Lily Van Hal+0.5
3011-19DENVERC ARKKillSarah Carnathanset Sophie Skinner+0.8
3112-19C ARKDENVERKillAlicia Thibodeauset Lily Van Hal+0.4
3212-20DENVERC ARKBad setJamia Johnson+0.7
3313-20C ARKDENVER×3KillAlicia Thibodeauset Lily Van Hal+0.3
3414-20DENVERDENVER×3Attack errKarlyn Frazier+0.7
3515-20DENVERDENVER×3Attack errElla Chaney+1.0
3615-21DENVERC ARKKillNicole Sargentset Sophie Skinner+1.3
3716-21C ARKDENVERKillHailey Goebelset Ilayda Eren+0.6
3816-22DENVERC ARKAttack errHailey Goebelblk Ella Chaney+1.1
3917-22C ARKDENVERKillHailey Goebelset Ilayda Eren+0.5
4017-23DENVERC ARKKillKarlyn Frazierset Tatelyn Brandsma+0.9
4118-23C ARKDENVERKillKayla Patelset Ilayda Eren+0.3
4219-23DENVERDENVERAttack errSarah Carnathanblk Izabela Molina, Jamia Johnson+0.8
4319-24DENVERC ARKKillSarah Carnathanset Tatelyn Brandsma+1.2
4420-24C ARKDENVER×7Feed gapPlaceholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.+0.3
4521-24DENVERDENVER×7KillKayla Patelset Lily Van Hal+0.9
4622-24DENVERDENVER×7Attack errSarah Carnathan+1.9
4723-24DENVERDENVER×7KillJamia Johnsonset Madison Winkler+4.1
4824-24DENVERDENVER×7KillJamia Johnsonset Madison Winkler+9.0
4925-24DENVERDENVER×7KillMadison Winklerset Sophie Skinner+7.9
5026-24DENVERDENVER×7Attack errNicole Sargent+7.0
Set 2
10-1DENVERC ARKServe errDENVER server+1.2
21-1C ARKDENVER×3Attack errElla Chaney+1.1
32-1DENVERDENVER×3AceDENVER serveraced Cameron McDaniel+1.5
43-1DENVERDENVER×3Attack errMcKinzee Haas+1.4
53-2DENVERC ARKKillMcKinzee Haasset Sophie Skinner+1.0
64-2C ARKDENVERKillAlicia Thibodeauset Lily Van Hal+1.0
74-3DENVERC ARKKillNicole Sargentset Sophie Skinner+1.1
85-3C ARKDENVERKillIzabela Molinaset Lily Van Hal+1.1
95-4DENVERC ARKKillElla Chaneyset Tatelyn Brandsma+1.1
105-5C ARKC ARKKillKarlyn Frazierset Ilayda Eren+1.6
116-5C ARKDENVERKillAlicia Thibodeauset Hailey Goebel+1.2
127-5DENVERDENVERKillKayla Patelset Ilayda Eren+1.5
137-6DENVERC ARK×4KillSarah Carnathanset Tatelyn Brandsma+1.1
147-7C ARKC ARK×4KillTatelyn Brandsmaset Trinity Hamilton+1.7
157-8C ARKC ARK×4KillMcKinzee Haasset Tatelyn Brandsma+1.9
167-9C ARKC ARK×4AceC ARK serveraced Alicia Thibodeau+2.0
178-9C ARKDENVERKillHailey Goebelset Ilayda Eren+1.4
189-9DENVERDENVERAceDENVER serveraced Ella Chaney+1.9
199-10DENVERC ARKKillMcKinzee Haasset Sophie Skinner+1.6
2010-10C ARKDENVER×3Serve errC ARK server+1.5
2111-10DENVERDENVER×3Attack errNicole Sargent+1.9
2212-10DENVERDENVER×3Attack errElla Chaney+1.8
2312-11DENVERC ARKKillMcKinzee Haasset Sophie Skinner+1.3
2413-11C ARKDENVERKillKayla Patelset Madison Winkler+1.4
2513-12DENVERC ARKKillMcKinzee Haasset Sophie Skinner+1.4
2614-12C ARKDENVERKillElise Hartset Lily Van Hal+1.4
2714-13DENVERC ARKAttack errLily Van Hal+1.4
2815-13C ARKDENVERKillJamia Johnsonset Lily Van Hal+1.5
2915-14DENVERC ARKKillKarlyn Frazierset Tatelyn Brandsma+1.5
3016-14C ARKDENVERKillIzabela Molinaset Ilayda Eren+1.6
3117-14DENVERDENVERAttack errSarah Carnathan+1.8
3217-15DENVERC ARKKillSarah Carnathanset Tatelyn Brandsma+1.2
3318-15C ARKDENVERKillKayla Patelset Ilayda Eren+1.4
3419-15DENVERDENVERAttack errMcKinzee Haasblk Elise Hart, Kayla Patel+1.5
3519-16DENVERC ARKKillSarah Carnathanset Tatelyn Brandsma+0.9
3620-16C ARKDENVER×3KillHailey Goebelset Ilayda Eren+1.1
3721-16DENVERDENVER×3Attack errElla Chaney+1.0
3822-16DENVERDENVER×3KillKayla Patelset Lily Van Hal+0.5
3922-17DENVERC ARKKillMcKinzee Haasset Tatelyn Brandsma+0.2
4023-17C ARKDENVER×3KillElise Hartset Lily Van Hal+0.3
4124-17DENVERDENVER×3KillJamia Johnsonset Kayla Patel+0.1
4225-17DENVERDENVER×3AceDENVER serveraced Ella Chaney+0.0
Set 3
11-0C ARKDENVERKillElise Hartset Lily Van Hal+0.6
21-1DENVERC ARKServe errDENVER server+0.6
32-1C ARKDENVERKillKayla Patel+0.6
42-2DENVERC ARKServe errDENVER server+0.6
52-3C ARKC ARKKillKennady Martindale+0.9
63-3C ARKDENVERKillJamia Johnsonset Lily Van Hal+0.6
74-3DENVERDENVERKillAlicia Thibodeauset Lily Van Hal+0.8
84-4DENVERC ARKServe errDENVER server+0.7
95-4C ARKDENVERKillIzabela Molinaset Lily Van Hal+0.6
105-5DENVERC ARK×8Serve errDENVER server+0.7
115-6C ARKC ARK×8Attack errIzabela Molinablk Karlyn Frazier+1.0
125-7C ARKC ARK×8Attack errAlicia Thibodeau+1.0
135-8C ARKC ARK×8KillSarah Carnathanset Tatelyn Brandsma+1.1
145-9C ARKC ARK×8KillAlicia Thibodeauset Ilayda Eren+1.0
155-10C ARKC ARK×8Attack errKayla Patel+1.0
165-11C ARKC ARK×8Attack errAlicia Thibodeaublk Tatelyn Brandsma, Karlyn Frazier+0.9
175-12C ARKC ARK×8AceC ARK serveraced Madison Winkler+0.8
186-12C ARKDENVERKillHailey Goebelset Ilayda Eren+0.4
196-13DENVERC ARKKillElla Chaney+0.6
206-14C ARKC ARKAceC ARK serveraced Team+0.6
217-14C ARKDENVERKillKayla Patelset Lily Van Hal+0.3
227-15DENVERC ARKKillSarah Carnathanset Tatelyn Brandsma+0.4
238-15C ARKDENVERKillKayla Patelset Lily Van Hal+0.3
248-16DENVERC ARKKillMcKinzee Haasset Sophie Skinner+0.4
258-17C ARKC ARKAceC ARK serveraced Kayla Patel+0.4
269-17C ARKDENVERKillKayla Patelset Lily Van Hal+0.2
279-18DENVERC ARKKillKennady Martindaleset Sophie Skinner+0.3
289-19C ARKC ARKAceC ARK serveraced Kayla Patel+0.2
2910-19C ARKDENVER×3Serve errC ARK server+0.1
3011-19DENVERDENVER×3KillJamia Johnsonset Sophie Skinner+0.1
3112-19DENVERDENVER×3Attack errKennady Martindale+0.2
3212-20DENVERC ARK×3Serve errDENVER server+0.3
3312-21C ARKC ARK×3Attack errJamia Johnson+0.2
3412-22C ARKC ARK×3KillTatelyn Brandsmaset Lily Van Hal+0.1
3513-22C ARKDENVER×4Attack errKennady Martindaleblk Izabela Molina, Jamia Johnson+0.0
3614-22DENVERDENVER×4Attack errKennady Martindale+0.0
3715-22DENVERDENVER×4Attack errKarlyn Frazier+0.1
3816-22DENVERDENVER×4KillAlicia Thibodeauset Madison Winkler+0.2
3916-23DENVERC ARKServe errDENVER server+0.2
4017-23C ARKDENVERKillHailey Goebelset Ilayda Eren+0.1
4117-24DENVERC ARKKillKarlyn Frazierset Tatelyn Brandsma+0.2
4218-24C ARKDENVERKillKayla Patelset Ilayda Eren+0.0
4318-25DENVERC ARKKillMcKinzee Haasset Tatelyn Brandsma+0.1
Set 4
11-0DENVERDENVERAttack errSarah Carnathan+2.2
21-1DENVERC ARKKillMcKinzee Haasset Sophie Skinner+1.7
32-1C ARKDENVER×4KillKayla Patelset Lily Van Hal+1.7
43-1DENVERDENVER×4KillAlicia Thibodeauset Lily Van Hal+2.1
54-1DENVERDENVER×4AceDENVER serveraced Team+1.9
65-1DENVERDENVER×4Attack errKennady Martindale+1.7
75-2DENVERC ARKKillAnnie Hopkinsset Sophie Skinner+1.2
86-2C ARKDENVER×3KillJamia Johnsonset Lily Van Hal+1.3
97-2DENVERDENVER×3Bad setAnnie Hopkins+1.4
108-2DENVERDENVER×3KillAlicia Thibodeauset Lily Van Hal+1.2
118-3DENVERC ARKKillElla Chaneyset Sophie Skinner+0.8
128-4C ARKC ARKAttack errJamia Johnsonblk Karlyn Frazier, Ella Chaney+1.3
139-4C ARKDENVERKillIzabela Molinaset Lily Van Hal+1.1
149-5DENVERC ARKKillKarlyn Frazierset Tatelyn Brandsma+1.0
1510-5C ARKDENVERKillHailey Goebelset Ilayda Eren+1.1
1611-5DENVERDENVERKillKayla Patelset Alicia Thibodeau+1.2
1711-6DENVERC ARKKillKarlyn Frazierset Tatelyn Brandsma+0.8
1811-7C ARKC ARKKillSarah Carnathanset Tatelyn Brandsma+1.3
1912-7C ARKDENVER×7Attack errSarah Carnathan+1.1
2013-7DENVERDENVER×7KillMcKinzee Haasset Madison Winkler+1.2
2114-7DENVERDENVER×7KillHailey Goebelset Ilayda Eren+0.9
2215-7DENVERDENVER×7Attack errMcKinzee Haas+0.6
2316-7DENVERDENVER×7Attack errSarah Carnathan+0.4
2417-7DENVERDENVER×7Attack errSarah Carnathanblk Elise Hart, Hailey Goebel+0.2
2518-7DENVERDENVER×7Attack errMcKinzee Haas+0.1
2618-8DENVERC ARKAttack errKayla Patel+0.0
2719-8C ARKDENVERKillHailey Goebelset Ilayda Eren+0.1
2819-9DENVERC ARKAttack errJamia Johnson+0.0
2920-9C ARKDENVERKillElise Hartset Lily Van Hal+0.1
3020-10DENVERC ARKKillMcKinzee Haasset Sophie Skinner+0.0
3121-10C ARKDENVERKillElise Hartset Lily Van Hal+0.0
3221-11DENVERC ARKKillKarlyn Frazierset Sophie Skinner+0.0
3322-11C ARKDENVER×4KillAlicia Thibodeauset Lily Van Hal+0.0
3423-11DENVERDENVER×4KillAlicia Thibodeauset Ilayda Eren+0.0
3524-11DENVERDENVER×4Attack errElla Chaneyblk Izabela Molina, Hailey Goebel+0.0
3625-11DENVERDENVER×4Attack errKarlyn Frazier+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Denver first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.