FinalWed, Sep 16, 2026

AwayMOUNTAIN-WEST

0:3

HomeWCC

Denver def. Air Force 3–0

(25-20, 25-17, 27-25)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
AIRFOR	20	17	25	0
DENVER	25	25	27	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

DENVER above 50 · AIRFOR below

Biggest swing: 5.2% to Air Force — set 3, AIRFOR 25-24 DENVER. Attack error by Alicia Thibodeau. DENVER win probability 92% → 86%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

AIRFOR 36.7%63.3% DENVER

Air Force wins

3-0

7.7%

3-1

13.3%

3-2

15.8%

Denver wins

3-0

19.0%

3-1

24.2%

3-2

20.0%

AIRFOR break %: 41.4% vs this opp
DENVER break %: 44.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Alicia ThibodeauAttack error+5.2%
Attack error by Alicia Thibodeau
Set 3 · AIRFOR 25-24 DENVER · AIRFOR 8% → 14%
02
Alicia ThibodeauKill+5.0%
Kill by Alicia Thibodeau (set by Ilayda Eren)
Set 3 · AIRFOR 25-26 DENVER · DENVER 90% → 95%
03
Grace FiaseuAttack error+4.7%
Grace Fiaseu stuffed by Alicia Thibodeau & Elise Hart
Set 3 · AIRFOR 25-27 DENVER · DENVER 95% → 100%
04
Alicia ThibodeauKill+3.9%
Kill by Alicia Thibodeau (set by Ilayda Eren)
Set 3 · AIRFOR 25-25 DENVER · DENVER 86% → 90%
05
Alicia ThibodeauKill+3.8%
Kill by Alicia Thibodeau (set by Ilayda Eren)
Set 1 · AIRFOR 19-22 DENVER · DENVER 71% → 75%
06
Katelyn LandisAttack error+3.8%
Attack error by Katelyn Landis
Set 1 · AIRFOR 19-20 DENVER · AIRFOR 29% → 33%
07
Kennedy SimonKill+3.8%
Kill by Kennedy Simon (set by Aylani Correa)
Set 3 · AIRFOR 23-23 DENVER · AIRFOR 5% → 8%
08
Quinlan JonesKill+3.7%
Kill by Quinlan Jones (set by Ilayda Eren)
Set 3 · AIRFOR 23-24 DENVER · DENVER 92% → 95%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Air Forceaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
6Karina MendivilOH	3	11	4	36	.194	0	0	0	9	1	2	1	12
55Kennedy SimonOH	3	8	8	32	.000	0	0	0	4	0	5	2.5	10.5
44Grace FiaseuMB	3	5	2	15	.200	1	2	2	1	0	5	2.5	9.5
30Zoe KirbyMB	3	4	0	10	.400	0	0	0	1	0	4	2	6
11Mia LoydS	3	0	0	2	.000	16	0	0	7	0	0	0	0
8Lainie StapletonOH	2	1	0	3	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
13Jenness OrcuttOH	3	4	0	11	.364	0	0	0	2	0	2	1	5
1Aylani CorreaL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	1
40Ella VogelL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	10	0	0	0	0
23Samantha PopeS	3	0	0	1	.000	16	0	0	7	0	0	0	0
14Annamaria RamosOH	2	0	0	1	.000	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	0
2Bella ChristensenOH	1	3	0	7	.429	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	3
Team totals		36	14	119	.185	34	3	5	49	1	18	9	62

Denverhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
19Alicia ThibodeauOH	3	15	2	32	.406	0	1	1	4	0	1	0.5	16.5
18Jamia JohnsonOH	3	10	4	19	.316	0	0	0	2	0	3	1.5	11.5
7Elise HartMB	3	11	1	16	.625	0	0	0	2	0	1	0.5	11.5
15Katelyn LandisMB	3	5	3	17	.118	1	0	0	0	0	4	2	7
24Kayla PatelOH	3	5	1	22	.182	1	0	1	9	2	1	0.5	5.5
13Lily Van HalS	3	0	0	1	.000	22	0	0	3	0	0	0	0
2Romi ChlebecekOH	3	4	6	14	-.143	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4
1Madison WinklerL/DS	3	1	0	1	1.000	5	0	0	27	1	0	0	1
10Ilayda ErenS	3	0	0	1	.000	22	0	1	9	0	0	0	0
8Quinlan JonesOH	2	4	1	10	.300	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4
4Emersen WergerL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	0
Team totals		55	18	133	.278	51	1	4	59	3	10	5	77

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 AIRFOR · DENVER 5

Set 1

20-25

Longest run 4 AIRFORDENVER 5

Set 2

17-25

Longest run 2 AIRFORDENVER 3

Set 3

25-27

Longest run 5 AIRFORDENVER 3

Bars above the line = Denver leads, below = Air Force leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Air Force

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	47%8/17	0%0/7
2	58%7/12	20%2/10
3	64%7/11	53%8/15
4	46%6/13	22%2/9
5	46%6/13	54%7/13
6	56%5/9	40%4/10
All	52%39/75	36%23/64

Denver

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	89%8/9	57%8/14
2	78%7/9	36%4/11
3	47%7/15	50%7/14
4	78%7/9	36%4/11
5	50%6/12	54%7/13
6	60%6/10	50%6/12
All	64%41/64	48%36/75

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

139 rallies

Rally log

#	AIRFOR-DENVER	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	AIRFOR	DENVER	Kill	Elise Hart	set Lily Van Hal	+1.7
2	1-1	DENVER	AIRFOR	Attack err	Kayla Patel		+1.7
3	1-2	AIRFOR	DENVER×3	Kill	Elise Hart	set Lily Van Hal	+1.7
4	1-3	DENVER	DENVER×3	Attack err	Grace Fiaseu		+2.3
5	1-4	DENVER	DENVER×3	Attack err	Kennedy Simon	blk Katelyn Landis, Jamia Johnson	+2.1
6	2-4	DENVER	AIRFOR	Kill	Karina Mendivil	set Mia Loyd	+1.5
7	3-4	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Attack err	Jamia Johnson		+2.3
8	3-5	AIRFOR	DENVER	Kill	Jamia Johnson	set Lily Van Hal	+1.8
9	3-6	DENVER	DENVER	Kill	Kayla Patel	set Madison Winkler	+2.2
10	4-6	DENVER	AIRFOR	Kill	Kennedy Simon	set Samantha Pope	+1.6
11	4-7	AIRFOR	DENVER	Kill	Katelyn Landis	set Ilayda Eren	+1.7
12	4-8	DENVER	DENVER	Kill	Romi Chlebecek	set Jenness Orcutt	+2.0
13	5-8	DENVER	AIRFOR×3	Kill	Karina Mendivil	set Samantha Pope	+1.4
14	6-8	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×3	Kill	Karina Mendivil	set Samantha Pope	+2.2
15	7-8	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×3	Ace	AIRFOR server	aced Madison Winkler	+2.5
16	7-9	AIRFOR	DENVER	Kill	Katelyn Landis	set Ilayda Eren	+1.9
17	7-10	DENVER	DENVER	Attack err	Karina Mendivil		+2.4
18	8-10	DENVER	AIRFOR	Kill	Karina Mendivil	set Samantha Pope	+1.7
19	9-10	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Attack err	Romi Chlebecek	blk Zoe Kirby, Karina Mendivil	+2.6
20	9-11	AIRFOR	DENVER	Kill	Romi Chlebecek	set Ilayda Eren	+2.1
21	10-11	DENVER	AIRFOR	Kill	Zoe Kirby	set Mia Loyd	+2.0
22	10-12	AIRFOR	DENVER×5	Kill	Jamia Johnson	set Lily Van Hal	+2.1
23	10-13	DENVER	DENVER×5	Ace	DENVER server	aced Karina Mendivil	+2.7
24	10-14	DENVER	DENVER×5	Kill	Elise Hart	set Lily Van Hal	+2.3
25	10-15	DENVER	DENVER×5	Kill	Jamia Johnson	set Lily Van Hal	+1.9
26	10-16	DENVER	DENVER×5	Bad set	Mia Loyd		+1.4
27	11-16	DENVER	AIRFOR	Kill	Kennedy Simon	set Mia Loyd	+0.8
28	12-16	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Attack err	Jamia Johnson	blk Kennedy Simon, Grace Fiaseu	+1.4
29	12-17	AIRFOR	DENVER	Kill	Elise Hart	set Lily Van Hal	+1.4
30	12-18	DENVER	DENVER	Attack err	Kennedy Simon		+1.3
31	13-18	DENVER	AIRFOR	Kill	Lainie Stapleton	set Mia Loyd	+0.7
32	14-18	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Kill	Kennedy Simon	set Samantha Pope	+1.3
33	14-19	AIRFOR	DENVER	Kill	Kayla Patel	set Madison Winkler	+1.4
34	15-19	DENVER	AIRFOR	Kill	Jenness Orcutt	set Samantha Pope	+0.9
35	15-20	AIRFOR	DENVER	Kill	Romi Chlebecek	set Ilayda Eren	+1.3
36	16-20	DENVER	AIRFOR×4	Serve err	DENVER server		+0.9
37	17-20	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×4	Kill	Karina Mendivil	set Samantha Pope	+1.8
38	18-20	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×4	Attack err	Romi Chlebecek	blk Karina Mendivil, Zoe Kirby	+2.7
39	19-20	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×4	Attack err	Katelyn Landis		+3.8
40	19-21	AIRFOR	DENVER×4	Kill	Alicia Thibodeau	set Kayla Patel	+3.5
41	19-22	DENVER	DENVER×4	Kill	Alicia Thibodeau	set Ilayda Eren	+3.8
42	19-23	DENVER	DENVER×4	Kill	Elise Hart	set Ilayda Eren	+2.4
43	19-24	DENVER	DENVER×4	Kill	Alicia Thibodeau	set Ilayda Eren	+1.1
44	20-24	DENVER	AIRFOR	Kill	Jenness Orcutt	set Samantha Pope	+0.2
45	20-25	AIRFOR	DENVER	Kill	Elise Hart	set Ilayda Eren	+0.5
Set 2
1	0-1	DENVER	DENVER	Kill	Alicia Thibodeau	set Lily Van Hal	+2.0
2	1-1	DENVER	AIRFOR	Kill	Karina Mendivil	set Mia Loyd	+1.5
3	1-2	AIRFOR	DENVER	Serve err	AIRFOR server		+1.5
4	2-2	DENVER	AIRFOR	Serve err	DENVER server		+1.6
5	3-2	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Kill	Kennedy Simon	set Samantha Pope	+2.2
6	3-3	AIRFOR	DENVER	Kill	Elise Hart	set Lily Van Hal	+1.6
7	4-3	DENVER	AIRFOR	Kill	Grace Fiaseu	set Samantha Pope	+1.7
8	5-3	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Attack err	Katelyn Landis		+2.3
9	5-4	AIRFOR	DENVER	Serve err	AIRFOR server		+1.6
10	6-4	DENVER	AIRFOR	Kill	Jenness Orcutt	set Grace Fiaseu	+1.8
11	7-4	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Attack err	Romi Chlebecek		+2.4
12	7-5	AIRFOR	DENVER	Attack err	Karina Mendivil	blk Katelyn Landis, Kayla Patel	+1.6
13	8-5	DENVER	AIRFOR	Kill	Karina Mendivil	set Samantha Pope	+1.8
14	8-6	AIRFOR	DENVER	Kill	Katelyn Landis	set Ilayda Eren	+1.6
15	8-7	DENVER	DENVER	Kill	Alicia Thibodeau	set Madison Winkler	+2.4
16	9-7	DENVER	AIRFOR	Kill	Karina Mendivil	set Madison Winkler	+1.9
17	9-8	AIRFOR	DENVER×3	Kill	Alicia Thibodeau	set Ilayda Eren	+1.8
18	9-9	DENVER	DENVER×3	Kill	Jamia Johnson	set Lily Van Hal	+2.5
19	9-10	DENVER	DENVER×3	Attack err	Kennedy Simon		+2.6
20	10-10	DENVER	AIRFOR	Attack err	Jamia Johnson		+1.9
21	11-10	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Attack err	Elise Hart	blk Kennedy Simon, Grace Fiaseu	+2.8
22	11-11	AIRFOR	DENVER	Kill	Elise Hart	set Lily Van Hal	+2.0
23	12-11	DENVER	AIRFOR	Kill	Grace Fiaseu	set Mia Loyd	+2.2
24	12-12	AIRFOR	DENVER×3	Kill	Elise Hart	set Lily Van Hal	+2.1
25	12-13	DENVER	DENVER×3	Attack err	Kennedy Simon	blk Jamia Johnson, Katelyn Landis	+2.9
26	12-14	DENVER	DENVER×3	Kill	Kayla Patel	set Lily Van Hal	+2.7
27	13-14	DENVER	AIRFOR	Attack err	Jamia Johnson	blk Grace Fiaseu, Kennedy Simon	+2.0
28	13-15	AIRFOR	DENVER×3	Attack err	Karina Mendivil	blk Jamia Johnson, Katelyn Landis	+2.1
29	13-16	DENVER	DENVER×3	Kill	Kayla Patel	set Ilayda Eren	+2.6
30	13-17	DENVER	DENVER×3	Kill	Katelyn Landis	set Ilayda Eren	+2.1
31	14-17	DENVER	AIRFOR	Bad set	Ilayda Eren		+1.3
32	14-18	AIRFOR	DENVER×3	Serve err	AIRFOR server		+1.6
33	14-19	DENVER	DENVER×3	Kill	Quinlan Jones	set Ilayda Eren	+1.6
34	14-20	DENVER	DENVER×3	Kill	Alicia Thibodeau		+1.1
35	15-20	DENVER	AIRFOR	Kill	Karina Mendivil	set Samantha Pope	+0.5
36	15-21	AIRFOR	DENVER	Kill	Alicia Thibodeau	set Ilayda Eren	+0.7
37	16-21	DENVER	AIRFOR	Kill	Zoe Kirby	set Mia Loyd	+0.4
38	16-22	AIRFOR	DENVER×3	Kill	Alicia Thibodeau	set Ilayda Eren	+0.6
39	16-23	DENVER	DENVER×3	Kill	Alicia Thibodeau	set Madison Winkler	+0.4
40	16-24	DENVER	DENVER×3	Kill	Jamia Johnson	set Lily Van Hal	+0.1
41	17-24	DENVER	AIRFOR	Attack err	Alicia Thibodeau		+0.0
42	17-25	AIRFOR	DENVER	Kill	Elise Hart	set Lily Van Hal	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	AIRFOR	DENVER	Kill	Jamia Johnson	set Lily Van Hal	+0.9
2	1-1	DENVER	AIRFOR	Kill	Karina Mendivil	set Mia Loyd	+0.9
3	1-2	AIRFOR	DENVER	Attack err	Kennedy Simon		+0.9
4	2-2	DENVER	AIRFOR	Serve err	DENVER server		+0.9
5	2-3	AIRFOR	DENVER	Serve err	AIRFOR server		+0.9
6	2-4	DENVER	DENVER	Kill	Madison Winkler	set Katelyn Landis	+1.2
7	3-4	DENVER	AIRFOR	Kill	Bella Christensen	set Mia Loyd	+0.9
8	3-5	AIRFOR	DENVER×3	Attack err	Kennedy Simon		+0.9
9	3-6	DENVER	DENVER×3	Kill	Alicia Thibodeau	set Ilayda Eren	+1.2
10	3-7	DENVER	DENVER×3	Attack err	Kennedy Simon		+1.1
11	4-7	DENVER	AIRFOR	Kill	Kennedy Simon	set Samantha Pope	+0.7
12	4-8	AIRFOR	DENVER	Kill	Alicia Thibodeau	set Lily Van Hal	+0.8
13	4-9	DENVER	DENVER	Attack err	Karina Mendivil		+0.9
14	5-9	DENVER	AIRFOR	Kill	Jenness Orcutt	set Samantha Pope	+0.6
15	6-9	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Ace	AIRFOR server	aced Kayla Patel	+1.0
16	6-10	AIRFOR	DENVER	Kill	Alicia Thibodeau	set Lily Van Hal	+0.8
17	6-11	DENVER	DENVER	Kill	Kayla Patel	set Lily Van Hal	+0.9
18	7-11	DENVER	AIRFOR	Kill	Zoe Kirby	set Samantha Pope	+0.6
19	7-12	AIRFOR	DENVER	Kill	Jamia Johnson	set Lily Van Hal	+0.7
20	8-12	DENVER	AIRFOR	Kill	Karina Mendivil	set Mia Loyd	+0.6
21	8-13	AIRFOR	DENVER×3	Bad set	Zoe Kirby		+0.7
22	8-14	DENVER	DENVER×3	Kill	Katelyn Landis		+0.8
23	8-15	DENVER	DENVER×3	Attack err	Kennedy Simon		+0.6
24	9-15	DENVER	AIRFOR	Kill	Kennedy Simon	set Mia Loyd	+0.3
25	10-15	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Kill	Grace Fiaseu	set Mia Loyd	+0.6
26	10-16	AIRFOR	DENVER	Kill	Quinlan Jones	set Ilayda Eren	+0.5
27	11-16	DENVER	AIRFOR	Kill	Bella Christensen	set Mia Loyd	+0.4
28	11-17	AIRFOR	DENVER	Kill	Romi Chlebecek	set Ilayda Eren	+0.5
29	12-17	DENVER	AIRFOR	Kill	Kennedy Simon	set Samantha Pope	+0.4
30	13-17	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Attack err	Romi Chlebecek	blk Grace Fiaseu, Jenness Orcutt	+0.7
31	13-18	AIRFOR	DENVER	Kill	Quinlan Jones	set Ilayda Eren	+0.7
32	14-18	DENVER	AIRFOR×3	Kill	Grace Fiaseu	set Samantha Pope	+0.5
33	15-18	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×3	Attack err	Romi Chlebecek		+1.0
34	16-18	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×3	Attack err	Romi Chlebecek	blk Zoe Kirby, Jenness Orcutt	+1.4
35	16-19	AIRFOR	DENVER×3	Serve err	AIRFOR server		+1.3
36	16-20	DENVER	DENVER×3	Kill	Elise Hart		+1.4
37	16-21	DENVER	DENVER×3	Kill	Jamia Johnson	set Lily Van Hal	+0.9
38	17-21	DENVER	AIRFOR	Serve err	DENVER server		+0.4
39	17-22	AIRFOR	DENVER	Kill	Jamia Johnson	set Madison Winkler	+0.6
40	18-22	DENVER	AIRFOR	Kill	Zoe Kirby	set Mia Loyd	+0.3
41	18-23	AIRFOR	DENVER	Kill	Jamia Johnson	set Lily Van Hal	+0.6
42	19-23	DENVER	AIRFOR×5	Attack err	Quinlan Jones	blk Zoe Kirby, Kennedy Simon	+0.2
43	20-23	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×5	Ace	AIRFOR server	aced Kayla Patel	+0.6
44	21-23	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×5	Attack err	Katelyn Landis	blk Grace Fiaseu, Kennedy Simon	+1.2
45	22-23	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×5	Kill	Bella Christensen	set Mia Loyd	+2.2
46	23-23	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×5	Kill	Kennedy Simon	set Aylani Correa	+3.8
47	23-24	AIRFOR	DENVER	Kill	Quinlan Jones	set Ilayda Eren	+3.7
48	24-24	DENVER	AIRFOR	Kill	Grace Fiaseu	set Mia Loyd	+3.7
49	25-24	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Attack err	Alicia Thibodeau		+5.2
50	25-25	AIRFOR	DENVER×3	Kill	Alicia Thibodeau	set Ilayda Eren	+3.9
51	25-26	DENVER	DENVER×3	Kill	Alicia Thibodeau	set Ilayda Eren	+5.0
52	25-27	DENVER	DENVER×3	Attack err	Grace Fiaseu	blk Alicia Thibodeau, Elise Hart	+4.7

Score shown after each rally, Air Force first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.