CollegeVolleyball
Final · 4 setsSat, Sep 5, 2026

Notre Dame def. Toledo 31

(18-25, 25-23, 25-19, 25-16)
Set1*2*3*4Sets
N DAME182525253
TOLEDO252319161
  • * Set 1: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.
  • * Set 2: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.
  • * Set 3: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.

RallyIQ model

Win probability

TOLEDO above 50 · N DAME below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100TOLEDON DAMEBiggest swing +5.6% N DAME · S3 20-17rally 176 · set 4

Biggest swing: 5.6% to Notre Dame — set 3, N DAME 20-17 TOLEDO. Attack error by Ava Siefke. TOLEDO win probability 61%55%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

N DAME 18.9%81.1% TOLEDO

Notre Dame wins

3-0
3.0%
3-1
6.2%
3-2
9.7%

Toledo wins

3-0
32.6%
3-1
30.5%
3-2
17.9%
N DAME break %
40.3% vs this opp
TOLEDO break %
47.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

  1. 01
    Ava SiefkeAttack error+5.6%

    Attack error by Ava Siefke

    Set 3 · N DAME 20-17 TOLEDO · N DAME 39%45%

  2. 02
    Sierra PertzbornAttack error+5.5%

    Attack error by Sierra Pertzborn

    Set 4 · N DAME 16-11 TOLEDO · N DAME 82%87%

  3. 03
    Anna BjorkKill+5.4%

    Kill by Anna Bjork (set by Maya Baker)

    Set 2 · N DAME 25-23 TOLEDO · N DAME 19%25%

  4. 04
    Chichi NnajiKill+5.3%

    Kill by Chichi Nnaji (set by Lily Fenton)

    Set 4 · N DAME 14-9 TOLEDO · N DAME 79%85%

  5. 05
    N DAME serverAce+5.1%

    Notre Dame ace on TEAM

    Set 3 · N DAME 18-15 TOLEDO · N DAME 37%42%

  6. 06
    Anna BjorkKill+5.0%

    Kill by Anna Bjork (set by Lily Fenton)

    Set 4 · N DAME 7-3 TOLEDO · N DAME 69%74%

  7. 07
    Anna BjorkKill+4.9%

    Kill by Anna Bjork

    Set 4 · N DAME 6-3 TOLEDO · N DAME 64%69%

  8. 08

    Kill by Sydney Helmers (set by Lily Fenton)

    Set 4 · N DAME 8-3 TOLEDO · N DAME 74%79%

Official NCAA box

Box score

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
422843.32612116102125
45325.08000040010.55.5
44110.300101200004
4116.00000000031.52.5
4000021500002
4001.0001603200000
49018.500100100009
4519.444000100005
42317-.059000200002
41011.0004031600001
4000000000000
4000000000000
4000000000000
4000000000000
40001901700000
4000000000000
4000000000000
4000000000000
4000000000000
Team totals4917130.2464241056406393
Toledohome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
410134.26512214000012
411022.5001003000011
410419.3161021002111
43718-.222000100214
41011.00021121200002
4000002700000
413434.2650003000013
4314.500001000003
41011.000511100002
40412-.333000200000
4002.0001501300000
4001.0003031000000
4000000000000
4000000000000
4000000000000
4000000000000
4000000000000
4000000000000
4000000000000
4000000000000
Team totals5221148.2094741457404283

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 N DAME · TOLEDO 7

Set 1*

18-25

Longest run 5 N DAMETOLEDO 7

Set 2*

25-23

Longest run 4 N DAMETOLEDO 3

Set 3*

25-19

Longest run 5 N DAMETOLEDO 4

Set 4

25-16

Longest run 4 N DAMETOLEDO 3

Bars above the line = Toledo leads, below = Notre Dame leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Notre Dame

SlotSideout %Break %
1
50%2/4
75%3/4
2
67%2/3
67%4/6
3
100%2/2
60%3/5
4
50%2/4
50%2/4
5
100%2/2
0%0/2
6
100%2/2
33%1/3
All
71%12/17
54%13/24

Toledo

SlotSideout %Break %
1
33%2/6
50%2/4
2
40%2/5
33%1/3
3
50%2/4
0%0/2
4
100%2/2
50%2/4
5
67%2/3
0%0/2
6
25%1/4
0%0/2
All
46%11/24
29%5/17

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (1 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

176 rallies

Rally log

#N DAME-TOLEDOSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1N DAMETOLEDO×5KillSierra Pertzbornset Madelyn Bach+1.2
20-2TOLEDOTOLEDO×5Attack errSydney Helmersblk Kayla Ozanich, Sierra Pertzborn+1.4
30-3TOLEDOTOLEDO×5Attack errSydney Helmers+1.3
40-4TOLEDOTOLEDO×5KillKayla Ozanichset Madelyn Bach+1.1
50-5TOLEDOTOLEDO×5KillAva Siefkeset Madelyn Bach+0.9
61-5TOLEDON DAMEAttack errSierra Pertzbornset Grace Freiberger+0.7
71-6N DAMETOLEDOKillKayla Ozanichset Madelyn Bach+0.7
82-6TOLEDON DAMEKillSydney Helmersset Maya Baker+0.7
92-7N DAMETOLEDOKillAva Siefkeset Madelyn Bach+0.7
103-7TOLEDON DAME×5KillIsabella Sanghaset Lily Fenton+0.7
114-7N DAMEN DAME×5Attack errAva Siefke+1.1
125-7N DAMEN DAME×5Feed gapPlaceholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.+1.4
136-7N DAMEN DAME×5KillSydney Helmersset Isabella Sangha+1.7
147-7N DAMEN DAME×5KillAngie Desamoursset Lily Fenton+1.9
157-8N DAMETOLEDOKillAva Siefkeset Janelle Green+1.4
168-8TOLEDON DAMEKillIsabella Sanghaset Lily Fenton+1.6
179-8N DAMEN DAMEFeed gapPlaceholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.+2.2
189-9N DAMETOLEDO×7KillLilly Merkset Janelle Green+1.6
199-10TOLEDOTOLEDO×7KillAva Siefke+2.0
209-11TOLEDOTOLEDO×7KillKayla Ozanich+1.9
219-12TOLEDOTOLEDO×7KillJessica Costlowset Janelle Green+1.7
229-13TOLEDOTOLEDO×7KillJessica Costlowset Janelle Green+1.4
239-14TOLEDOTOLEDO×7Attack errSydney Helmers+1.1
249-15TOLEDOTOLEDO×7Attack errAngie Desamours+0.8
2510-15TOLEDON DAMEServe errTOLEDO server+0.5
2610-16N DAMETOLEDOServe errN DAME server+0.6
2710-17TOLEDOTOLEDOKillJessica Costlowset Kayla Ozanich+0.5
2811-17TOLEDON DAMEKillMae Kordasset Maya Baker+0.3
2911-18N DAMETOLEDO×4KillSierra Pertzbornset Madelyn Bach+0.4
3011-19TOLEDOTOLEDO×4Attack errSydney Helmersblk Sierra Pertzborn, Kayla Ozanich+0.3
3111-20TOLEDOTOLEDO×4AceTOLEDO serveraced TEAM+0.1
3211-21TOLEDOTOLEDO×4AceTOLEDO serveraced TEAM+0.1
3312-21TOLEDON DAMEKillSydney Helmersset Maya Baker+0.0
3412-22N DAMETOLEDOServe errN DAME server+0.0
3512-23TOLEDOTOLEDOKillMadelyn Bachset Madelyn Bach+0.0
3613-23TOLEDON DAMEKillSydney Helmersset Maya Baker+0.0
3713-24N DAMETOLEDOKillLilly Merkset Madelyn Bach+0.0
3814-24TOLEDON DAME×5KillChichi Nnaji+0.0
3915-24N DAMEN DAME×5AceN DAME serveraced TEAM+0.0
4016-24N DAMEN DAME×5KillGrace Langerset Grace Freiberger+0.0
4117-24N DAMEN DAME×5KillAngie Desamoursset Sydney Helmers+0.0
4218-24N DAMEN DAME×5Attack errSophie Catalano+0.0
4318-25N DAMETOLEDOServe errN DAME server+0.0
Set 2
10-1TOLEDOTOLEDOKillKayla Ozanichset Madelyn Bach+1.2
21-1TOLEDON DAME×4Serve errTOLEDO server+0.9
32-1N DAMEN DAME×4Attack errAva Siefke+1.3
43-1N DAMEN DAME×4Attack errSierra Pertzborn+1.4
54-1N DAMEN DAME×4Attack errSierra Pertzborn+1.5
64-2N DAMETOLEDOServe errN DAME server+1.0
75-2TOLEDON DAMEAttack errSierra Pertzbornset Kayla Ozanich+1.2
85-3N DAMETOLEDO×3KillLilly Merkset Madelyn Bach+1.1
95-4TOLEDOTOLEDO×3Attack errAnna Bjork+1.4
105-5TOLEDOTOLEDO×3Attack errMae Kordas+1.4
116-5TOLEDON DAMEKillAnna Bjorkset Maya Baker+1.2
127-5N DAMEN DAMEKillSydney Helmersset Maya Baker+1.6
137-6N DAMETOLEDOKillAva Siefkeset Janelle Green+1.1
148-6TOLEDON DAMEServe errTOLEDO server+1.3
158-7N DAMETOLEDOKillLilly Merkset Janelle Green+1.2
169-7TOLEDON DAMEKillSydney Helmersset Maya Baker+1.4
1710-7N DAMEN DAMEKillSydney Helmersset Lily Fenton+1.8
1810-8N DAMETOLEDOKillKayla Ozanichset Janelle Green+1.2
1911-8TOLEDON DAMEKillSydney Helmersset Lily Fenton+1.5
2011-9N DAMETOLEDOKillJessica Costlowset Madelyn Bach+1.2
2112-9TOLEDON DAMEBad setMadelyn Bach+1.5
2212-10N DAMETOLEDOServe errN DAME server+1.3
2313-10TOLEDON DAMEKillSydney Helmers+1.6
2413-11N DAMETOLEDOServe errN DAME server+1.3
2514-11TOLEDON DAMEServe errTOLEDO server+1.6
2615-11N DAMEN DAMEAceN DAME serveraced TEAM+2.0
2715-12N DAMETOLEDO×3Serve errN DAME server+1.2
2815-13TOLEDOTOLEDO×3Attack errSydney Helmers+1.8
2915-14TOLEDOTOLEDO×3Attack errMae Kordas+2.0
3016-14TOLEDON DAMEServe errTOLEDO server+1.8
3117-14N DAMEN DAMEKillSydney Helmersset Maya Baker+2.3
3217-15N DAMETOLEDOKillLilly Merkset Janelle Green+1.5
3318-15TOLEDON DAME×3KillSydney Helmers+1.9
3419-15N DAMEN DAME×3KillIsabella Sanghaset Lily Fenton+2.2
3520-15N DAMEN DAME×3KillIsabella Sangha+1.8
3620-16N DAMETOLEDOKillKayla Ozanichset Janelle Green+0.8
3721-16TOLEDON DAMEServe errTOLEDO server+1.4
3822-16N DAMEN DAMEFeed gapPlaceholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.+1.1
3922-17N DAMETOLEDO×3KillKayla Ozanichset Madelyn Bach+0.4
4022-18TOLEDOTOLEDO×3Attack errAngie Desamours+0.8
4122-19TOLEDOTOLEDO×3KillAva Siefke+1.3
4223-19TOLEDON DAMEKillIsabella Sanghaset Lily Fenton+1.8
4323-20N DAMETOLEDOKillAva Siefkeset Jessica Costlow+0.8
4423-21TOLEDOTOLEDOAttack errSydney Helmers+1.8
4524-21TOLEDON DAMEServe errTOLEDO server+2.6
4624-22N DAMETOLEDOKillLilly Merkset Madelyn Bach+1.0
4724-23TOLEDOTOLEDOAttack errAngie Desamours+2.9
4825-23TOLEDON DAMEKillAnna Bjorkset Maya Baker+5.4
Set 3
10-1N DAMETOLEDOKillLilly Merkset Janelle Green+1.8
21-1TOLEDON DAMEKillSydney Helmersset Lily Fenton+2.0
31-2N DAMETOLEDOKillKayla Ozanichset Janelle Green+1.9
42-2TOLEDON DAMEBad setGrace Freiberger+2.0
53-2N DAMEN DAMEKillChichi Nnaji+2.9
63-3N DAMETOLEDOKillKayla Ozanichset Madelyn Bach+2.1
74-3TOLEDON DAMEServe errTOLEDO server+2.3
85-3N DAMEN DAMEKillIsabella Sanghaset Maya Evens+3.2
95-4N DAMETOLEDOKillAva Siefkeset Grace Freiberger+2.3
106-4TOLEDON DAMEKillSydney Helmersset Maya Evens+2.6
116-5N DAMETOLEDOKillLilly Merkset Madelyn Bach+2.3
127-5TOLEDON DAMEKillSydney Helmersset Anna Bjork+2.7
137-6N DAMETOLEDO×3KillAva Siefkeset Janelle Green+2.4
147-7TOLEDOTOLEDO×3KillJessica Costlowset Janelle Green+3.1
157-8TOLEDOTOLEDO×3KillJessica Costlowset Janelle Green+3.0
168-8TOLEDON DAMEKillSydney Helmersset Maya Baker+2.4
179-8N DAMEN DAMEKillChichi Nnajiset Maya Evens+3.5
189-9N DAMETOLEDOKillLilly Merk+2.5
1910-9TOLEDON DAME×5KillSydney Helmersset Lily Fenton+2.8
2011-9N DAMEN DAME×5KillMaya Evens+3.9
2112-9N DAMEN DAME×5KillMae Kordasset Lily Fenton+4.0
2213-9N DAMEN DAME×5Attack errSophie Catalanoblk Grace Langer, Mae Kordas+3.9
2314-9N DAMEN DAME×5AceN DAME serveraced TEAM+3.6
2414-10N DAMETOLEDO×4Attack errChichi Nnajiset Sydney Helmers+2.1
2514-11TOLEDOTOLEDO×4KillJessica Costlowset Grace Freiberger+3.3
2614-12TOLEDOTOLEDO×4KillJessica Costlow+3.7
2714-13TOLEDOTOLEDO×4Attack errGrace Langer+4.0
2815-13TOLEDON DAMEServe errTOLEDO server+3.6
2915-14N DAMETOLEDOServe errN DAME server+3.1
3016-14TOLEDON DAMEAttack errKayla Ozanichset Madelyn Bach+3.8
3116-15N DAMETOLEDOKillAva Siefkeset Madelyn Bach+3.3
3217-15TOLEDON DAMEServe errTOLEDO server+4.0
3318-15N DAMEN DAMEAceN DAME serveraced TEAM+5.1
3418-16N DAMETOLEDOKillAva Siefkeset Madelyn Bach+3.1
3518-17TOLEDOTOLEDOAttack errSydney Helmers+4.7
3619-17TOLEDON DAME×5KillIsabella Sanghaset Maya Baker+4.6
3720-17N DAMEN DAME×5Attack errAva Siefke+5.6
3821-17N DAMEN DAME×5Attack errSophie Catalanoblk Grace Langer, Sydney Helmers+4.8
3922-17N DAMEN DAME×5Feed gapPlaceholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.+3.4
4023-17N DAMEN DAME×5Attack errAva Siefke+1.9
4123-18N DAMETOLEDOKillLilly Merk+0.5
4224-18TOLEDON DAMEKillIsabella Sanghaset Maya Baker+1.1
4324-19N DAMETOLEDOServe errN DAME server+0.2
4425-19TOLEDON DAMEServe errTOLEDO server+0.6
Set 4
10-1TOLEDOTOLEDOAceTOLEDO serveraced TEAM+3.5
21-1TOLEDON DAME×4Attack errJessica Costlowset Avery Adamski+2.9
32-1N DAMEN DAME×4Attack errSierra Pertzborn+4.1
43-1N DAMEN DAME×4KillSydney Helmersset Lily Fenton+4.4
54-1N DAMEN DAME×4KillMae Kordasset Lily Fenton+4.6
64-2N DAMETOLEDOKillSierra Pertzbornset Madelyn Bach+3.2
74-3TOLEDOTOLEDOKillAva Siefkeset Madelyn Bach+4.2
85-3TOLEDON DAME×4KillChichi Nnajiset Lily Fenton+3.7
96-3N DAMEN DAME×4KillAnna Bjork+4.9
107-3N DAMEN DAME×4KillAnna Bjorkset Lily Fenton+5.0
118-3N DAMEN DAME×4KillSydney Helmersset Lily Fenton+4.8
128-4N DAMETOLEDOAttack errMae Kordasset Maya Evens+3.0
139-4TOLEDON DAMEAttack errAudrey Dyasset Sydney Helmers+3.9
1410-4N DAMEN DAMEKillMae Kordasset Maya Baker+4.6
1510-5N DAMETOLEDO×3Serve errN DAME server+2.7
1610-6TOLEDOTOLEDO×3KillAva Siefkeset Gabbi Leblanc+4.1
1710-7TOLEDOTOLEDO×3AceTOLEDO serveraced Sydney Helmers+4.5
1811-7TOLEDON DAMEKillMae Kordasset Maya Baker+4.3
1911-8N DAMETOLEDOKillAudrey Dyasset Gabbi Leblanc+3.5
2012-8TOLEDON DAMEAttack errKayla Ozanichset Gabbi Leblanc+4.4
2112-9N DAMETOLEDOKillKayla Ozanichset Gabbi Leblanc+3.5
2213-9TOLEDON DAMEKillSydney Helmersset Maya Baker+4.5
2314-9N DAMEN DAMEKillChichi Nnajiset Lily Fenton+5.3
2414-10N DAMETOLEDOKillGabbi Leblanc+3.1
2514-11TOLEDOTOLEDOAttack errSydney Helmers+4.8
2615-11TOLEDON DAMEKillSydney Helmersset Lily Fenton+4.8
2716-11N DAMEN DAMEAttack errSierra Pertzborn+5.5
2816-12N DAMETOLEDOKillJessica Costlowset Madelyn Bach+3.1
2917-12TOLEDON DAMEAttack errSierra Pertzbornset Grace Freiberger+4.3
3017-13N DAMETOLEDOKillLilly Merkset Madelyn Bach+3.0
3118-13TOLEDON DAMEServe errTOLEDO server+4.4
3219-13N DAMEN DAMEKillIsabella Sangha+4.3
3319-14N DAMETOLEDOKillAudrey Dyasset Madelyn Bach+2.0
3420-14TOLEDON DAMEServe errTOLEDO server+3.2
3520-15N DAMETOLEDOKillAva Siefkeset Gabbi Leblanc+1.8
3621-15TOLEDON DAMEKillSydney Helmersset Maya Baker+3.0
3722-15N DAMEN DAMEAttack errKayla Ozanichblk Sydney Helmers, Grace Langer+2.2
3822-16N DAMETOLEDOKillAudrey Dyasset Gabbi Leblanc+0.7
3923-16TOLEDON DAME×3Serve errTOLEDO server+1.3
4024-16N DAMEN DAME×3KillSydney Helmersset Maya Evens+0.6
4125-16N DAMEN DAME×3Attack errKayla Ozanich+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Notre Dame first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.