FinalFri, Sep 18, 2026

AwayAMERICAN

0:3

HomeBIG-TEN

Penn St. def. South Fla. 3–0

(25-18, 25-23, 26-24)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
USF	18	23	24	0
PENNST	25	25	26	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

PENNST above 50 · USF below

Biggest swing: 2.2% to South Fla. — set 2, USF 22-21 PENNST. Whitney Lauenstein stuffed by Iyanna Garvin & Paula Tomasa. PENNST win probability 95% → 93%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

USF 7.3%92.7% PENNST

South Fla. wins

3-0

0.9%

3-1

2.1%

3-2

4.3%

Penn St. wins

3-0

49.6%

3-1

31.0%

3-2

12.0%

USF break %: 36.5% vs this opp
PENNST break %: 47.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Whitney LauensteinAttack error+2.2%
Whitney Lauenstein stuffed by Iyanna Garvin & Paula Tomasa
Set 2 · USF 22-21 PENNST · USF 5% → 7%
02
Whitney LauensteinKill+2.2%
Kill by Whitney Lauenstein
Set 2 · USF 22-23 PENNST · PENNST 94% → 96%
03
Whitney LauensteinKill+1.7%
Kill by Whitney Lauenstein (set by Alexis Stucky)
Set 2 · USF 22-24 PENNST · PENNST 96% → 98%
04
Whitney LauensteinAttack error+1.6%
Whitney Lauenstein stuffed by Paula Tomasa & Iyanna Garvin
Set 2 · USF 21-21 PENNST · USF 3% → 5%
05
USF serverService error+1.5%
South Fla. service error
Set 2 · USF 23-25 PENNST · PENNST 97% → 99%
06
Gabrielle NicholsKill+1.5%
Kill by Gabrielle Nichols (set by Alexis Stucky)
Set 2 · USF 22-22 PENNST · PENNST 93% → 94%
07
USF serverAce+1.4%
South Fla. ace on Haley Burgdorf
Set 1 · USF 8-6 PENNST · USF 9% → 10%
08
Addy BrusAttack error+1.3%
Attack error by Addy Brus
Set 1 · USF 10-10 PENNST · PENNST 90% → 91%

Official NCAA box

Box score

South Fla.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
12Addy BrusOH	3	8	1	23	.304	1	3	1	6	1	0	0	0	11
1Paula TomasaOH	3	7	6	23	.043	1	0	2	1	0	0	5	2.5	9.5
15Amelia Wass de CzegeMB	3	3	0	6	.500	0	4	1	0	0	0	3	1.5	8.5
4Mora PampinOH	3	8	6	23	.087	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8
11Iyanna GarvinMB	3	3	4	12	-.083	0	0	0	0	0	2	4	4	7
5Nina Jioshvili-RavvaS	3	1	0	1	1.000	16	3	0	5	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
3Miya ThomasL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	1	1	7	1	0	0	0	1
7Sofija DjordjevicL/DS	3	0	1	2	-.500	4	0	1	9	1	0	0	0	0
19Emelyn StettinS	2	0	0	1	.000	7	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	0
21Rana YamadaL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
0Samiyah Abdur-RahimOH	1	2	1	4	.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
2Laila IveyOH	1	0	0	3	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17Ryelle RondoL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		32	19	98	.133	31	11	8	32	4	2	14	9	65

Penn St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
18Kennedy MartinOH	3	15	1	23	.609	0	0	2	8	0	0	2	1	16
8Gabrielle NicholsMB	3	7	2	14	.357	0	0	0	3	0	1	6	4	11
7Ryla JonesMB	3	6	1	9	.556	0	2	1	1	0	1	1	1.5	9.5
26Whitney LauensteinOH	3	7	5	23	.087	2	1	1	1	2	0	2	1	9
5Alexis StuckyS	3	3	0	6	.500	31	0	1	3	0	0	2	1	4
23Haley BurgdorfOH	3	2	2	8	.000	0	0	1	3	4	0	0	0	2
42Finley KrystkowiakOH	3	4	4	13	.000	1	0	0	2	3	0	1	0.5	4.5
2Ava FaldutoL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	1	1	12	1	0	0	0	1
11Jocelyn NathanL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		44	15	96	.302	38	4	7	35	11	2	14	9	76

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 USF · PENNST 6

Set 1

18-25

Longest run 2 USFPENNST 6

Set 2

23-25

Longest run 5 USFPENNST 3

Set 3

24-26

Longest run 4 USFPENNST 5

Bars above the line = Penn St. leads, below = South Fla. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

South Fla.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	44%7/16	42%5/12
2	44%7/16	59%10/17
3	40%6/15	22%2/9
4	55%6/11	40%4/10
5	75%6/8	45%5/11
6	63%5/8	25%2/8
All	50%37/74	42%28/67

Penn St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	42%8/19	40%4/10
2	58%7/12	63%12/19
3	75%6/8	54%7/13
4	67%6/9	60%9/15
5	50%6/12	45%5/11
6	86%6/7	0%0/6
All	58%39/67	50%37/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

141 rallies

Rally log

#	USF-PENNST	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	USF	USF	Ace	USF server	aced Haley Burgdorf	+1.0
2	2-0	USF	USF	Attack err	Whitney Lauenstein	blk Paula Tomasa, Amelia Wass de Czege	+1.1
3	2-1	USF	PENNST	Kill	Whitney Lauenstein	set Alexis Stucky	+0.7
4	2-2	PENNST	PENNST	Bad set	Paula Tomasa		+0.9
5	3-2	PENNST	USF	Kill	Paula Tomasa	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+0.8
6	3-3	USF	PENNST	Kill	Gabrielle Nichols	set Alexis Stucky	+0.7
7	4-3	PENNST	USF	Serve err	PENNST server		+0.8
8	4-4	USF	PENNST	Kill	Haley Burgdorf	set Alexis Stucky	+0.7
9	5-4	PENNST	USF	Kill	Paula Tomasa	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+0.8
10	6-4	USF	USF	Attack err	Haley Burgdorf	blk Nina Jioshvili-Ravva, Iyanna Garvin	+1.3
11	6-5	USF	PENNST	Serve err	USF server		+0.8
12	6-6	PENNST	PENNST	Kill	Ryla Jones	set Alexis Stucky	+1.1
13	7-6	PENNST	USF	Kill	Iyanna Garvin	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+0.9
14	8-6	USF	USF	Ace	USF server	aced Haley Burgdorf	+1.4
15	8-7	USF	PENNST	Attack err	Mora Pampin	blk Alexis Stucky, Ryla Jones	+0.9
16	9-7	PENNST	USF	Kill	Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	set Sofija Djordjevic	+1.1
17	9-8	USF	PENNST	Serve err	USF server		+0.9
18	10-8	PENNST	USF	Kill	Mora Pampin	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+1.1
19	10-9	USF	PENNST×6	Attack err	Sofija Djordjevic	blk Gabrielle Nichols, Whitney Lauenstein	+0.9
20	10-10	PENNST	PENNST×6	Attack err	Addy Brus		+1.3
21	10-11	PENNST	PENNST×6	Attack err	Paula Tomasa	blk Gabrielle Nichols, Whitney Lauenstein	+1.2
22	10-12	PENNST	PENNST×6	Attack err	Mora Pampin	blk Gabrielle Nichols, Kennedy Martin	+1.0
23	10-13	PENNST	PENNST×6	Attack err	Paula Tomasa		+0.8
24	10-14	PENNST	PENNST×6	Attack err	Mora Pampin		+0.7
25	11-14	PENNST	USF	Kill	Mora Pampin	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+0.4
26	12-14	USF	USF	Attack err	Haley Burgdorf	blk Amelia Wass de Czege, Paula Tomasa	+0.8
27	12-15	USF	PENNST×3	Attack err	Paula Tomasa	blk Gabrielle Nichols, Kennedy Martin	+0.6
28	12-16	PENNST	PENNST×3	Attack err	Paula Tomasa	blk Gabrielle Nichols, Finley Krystkowiak	+0.7
29	12-17	PENNST	PENNST×3	Kill	Finley Krystkowiak	set Ava Falduto	+0.5
30	13-17	PENNST	USF	Kill	Addy Brus	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+0.3
31	13-18	USF	PENNST×3	Kill	Kennedy Martin	set Alexis Stucky	+0.3
32	13-19	PENNST	PENNST×3	Attack err	Iyanna Garvin		+0.3
33	13-20	PENNST	PENNST×3	Kill	Ryla Jones		+0.2
34	14-20	PENNST	USF	Kill	Addy Brus	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+0.1
35	15-20	USF	USF	Attack err	Finley Krystkowiak		+0.2
36	15-21	USF	PENNST	Kill	Kennedy Martin	set Alexis Stucky	+0.2
37	16-21	PENNST	USF	Serve err	PENNST server		+0.1
38	17-21	USF	USF	Kill	Mora Pampin	set Addy Brus	+0.3
39	17-22	USF	PENNST	Kill	Kennedy Martin	set Alexis Stucky	+0.3
40	18-22	PENNST	USF	Kill	Mora Pampin	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+0.2
41	18-23	USF	PENNST×3	Kill	Alexis Stucky	set Ava Falduto	+0.3
42	18-24	PENNST	PENNST×3	Attack err	Mora Pampin		+0.1
43	18-25	PENNST	PENNST×3	Ace	PENNST server	aced Mora Pampin	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	PENNST	USF	Kill	Paula Tomasa	set Sofija Djordjevic	+0.5
2	1-1	USF	PENNST×3	Kill	Gabrielle Nichols	set Alexis Stucky	+0.4
3	1-2	PENNST	PENNST×3	Kill	Gabrielle Nichols	set Alexis Stucky	+0.5
4	1-3	PENNST	PENNST×3	Attack err	Iyanna Garvin	blk Gabrielle Nichols	+0.5
5	2-3	PENNST	USF	Kill	Paula Tomasa	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+0.4
6	2-4	USF	PENNST	Serve err	USF server		+0.3
7	3-4	PENNST	USF	Kill	Iyanna Garvin	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+0.4
8	4-4	USF	USF	Ace	USF server	aced Finley Krystkowiak	+0.6
9	4-5	USF	PENNST	Kill	Kennedy Martin	set Alexis Stucky	+0.4
10	4-6	PENNST	PENNST	Attack err	Paula Tomasa		+0.5
11	5-6	PENNST	USF	Kill	Iyanna Garvin	set Emelyn Stettin	+0.4
12	5-7	USF	PENNST	Kill	Kennedy Martin	set Alexis Stucky	+0.4
13	5-8	PENNST	PENNST	Kill	Finley Krystkowiak	set Alexis Stucky	+0.5
14	6-8	PENNST	USF	Kill	Amelia Wass de Czege	set Emelyn Stettin	+0.3
15	6-9	USF	PENNST	Kill	Ryla Jones	set Alexis Stucky	+0.3
16	7-9	PENNST	USF	Attack err	Whitney Lauenstein	blk Paula Tomasa, Amelia Wass de Czege	+0.3
17	7-10	USF	PENNST	Serve err	USF server		+0.3
18	8-10	PENNST	USF×3	Kill	Addy Brus	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+0.4
19	9-10	USF	USF×3	Ace	USF server	aced Whitney Lauenstein	+0.6
20	10-10	USF	USF×3	Ace	USF server	aced Haley Burgdorf	+0.8
21	10-11	USF	PENNST	Kill	Kennedy Martin	set Alexis Stucky	+0.5
22	11-11	PENNST	USF	Kill	Paula Tomasa	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+0.6
23	12-11	USF	USF	Attack err	Gabrielle Nichols	blk Iyanna Garvin	+1.0
24	12-12	USF	PENNST×3	Kill	Kennedy Martin	set Emelyn Stettin	+0.6
25	12-13	PENNST	PENNST×3	Kill	Kennedy Martin	set Ava Falduto	+0.9
26	12-14	PENNST	PENNST×3	Ace	PENNST server	aced Addy Brus	+0.7
27	13-14	PENNST	USF	Attack err	Finley Krystkowiak		+0.5
28	13-15	USF	PENNST	Serve err	USF server		+0.5
29	13-16	PENNST	PENNST	Attack err	Iyanna Garvin		+0.6
30	14-16	PENNST	USF	Serve err	PENNST server		+0.4
31	14-17	USF	PENNST	Kill	Kennedy Martin	set Alexis Stucky	+0.5
32	14-18	PENNST	PENNST	Kill	Ryla Jones	set Alexis Stucky	+0.5
33	15-18	PENNST	USF	Serve err	PENNST server		+0.3
34	16-18	USF	USF	Ace	USF server	aced Finley Krystkowiak	+0.6
35	16-19	USF	PENNST	Kill	Alexis Stucky	set Finley Krystkowiak	+0.5
36	17-19	PENNST	USF	Kill	Mora Pampin	set Sofija Djordjevic	+0.5
37	17-20	USF	PENNST	Kill	Kennedy Martin	set Whitney Lauenstein	+0.5
38	17-21	PENNST	PENNST	Ace	PENNST server	aced Miya Thomas	+0.5
39	18-21	PENNST	USF×5	Serve err	PENNST server		+0.3
40	19-21	USF	USF×5	Kill	Addy Brus	set Miya Thomas	+0.6
41	20-21	USF	USF×5	Ace	USF server	aced Haley Burgdorf	+1.0
42	21-21	USF	USF×5	Attack err	Whitney Lauenstein	blk Paula Tomasa, Iyanna Garvin	+1.6
43	22-21	USF	USF×5	Attack err	Whitney Lauenstein	blk Iyanna Garvin, Paula Tomasa	+2.2
44	22-22	USF	PENNST×3	Kill	Gabrielle Nichols	set Alexis Stucky	+1.5
45	22-23	PENNST	PENNST×3	Kill	Whitney Lauenstein		+2.2
46	22-24	PENNST	PENNST×3	Kill	Whitney Lauenstein	set Alexis Stucky	+1.7
47	23-24	PENNST	USF	Kill	Paula Tomasa	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+0.7
48	23-25	USF	PENNST	Serve err	USF server		+1.5
Set 3
1	1-0	USF	USF	Attack err	Whitney Lauenstein		+0.3
2	1-1	USF	PENNST	Kill	Haley Burgdorf	set Alexis Stucky	+0.2
3	1-2	PENNST	PENNST	Kill	Whitney Lauenstein		+0.3
4	2-2	PENNST	USF×3	Serve err	PENNST server		+0.2
5	3-2	USF	USF×3	Attack err	Gabrielle Nichols	blk Iyanna Garvin	+0.3
6	4-2	USF	USF×3	Attack err	Kennedy Martin		+0.4
7	4-3	USF	PENNST×4	Kill	Gabrielle Nichols	set Alexis Stucky	+0.2
8	4-4	PENNST	PENNST×4	Kill	Gabrielle Nichols	set Miya Thomas	+0.3
9	4-5	PENNST	PENNST×4	Kill	Kennedy Martin	set Alexis Stucky	+0.3
10	4-6	PENNST	PENNST×4	Attack err	Paula Tomasa		+0.2
11	5-6	PENNST	USF	Kill	Addy Brus	set Miya Thomas	+0.2
12	5-7	USF	PENNST×5	Kill	Gabrielle Nichols	set Alexis Stucky	+0.2
13	5-8	PENNST	PENNST×5	Ace	PENNST server	aced Sofija Djordjevic	+0.2
14	5-9	PENNST	PENNST×5	Attack err	Iyanna Garvin	blk Ryla Jones	+0.2
15	5-10	PENNST	PENNST×5	Kill	Kennedy Martin	set Ava Falduto	+0.1
16	5-11	PENNST	PENNST×5	Kill	Ryla Jones		+0.1
17	6-11	PENNST	USF	Attack err	Finley Krystkowiak	blk Samiyah Abdur-Rahim, Iyanna Garvin	+0.1
18	6-12	USF	PENNST	Kill	Kennedy Martin	set Alexis Stucky	+0.1
19	7-12	PENNST	USF×4	Kill	Mora Pampin	set Emelyn Stettin	+0.1
20	8-12	USF	USF×4	Kill	Amelia Wass de Czege	set Emelyn Stettin	+0.1
21	9-12	USF	USF×4	Kill	Samiyah Abdur-Rahim	set Sofija Djordjevic	+0.2
22	10-12	USF	USF×4	Attack err	Finley Krystkowiak		+0.2
23	10-13	USF	PENNST	Kill	Kennedy Martin	set Alexis Stucky	+0.2
24	11-13	PENNST	USF	Kill	Mora Pampin	set Emelyn Stettin	+0.2
25	11-14	USF	PENNST	Kill	Ryla Jones	set Alexis Stucky	+0.2
26	11-15	PENNST	PENNST	Attack err	Mora Pampin	blk Alexis Stucky, Gabrielle Nichols	+0.2
27	12-15	PENNST	USF×3	Kill	Paula Tomasa	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+0.1
28	13-15	USF	USF×3	Ace	USF server	aced Team	+0.3
29	14-15	USF	USF×3	Kill	Amelia Wass de Czege	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+0.4
30	14-16	USF	PENNST	Kill	Alexis Stucky	set Whitney Lauenstein	+0.3
31	15-16	PENNST	USF	Kill	Addy Brus	set Paula Tomasa	+0.3
32	16-16	USF	USF	Ace	USF server	aced Ava Falduto	+0.5
33	16-17	USF	PENNST	Serve err	USF server		+0.4
34	17-17	PENNST	USF	Kill	Addy Brus	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+0.4
35	18-17	USF	USF	Kill	Addy Brus	set Emelyn Stettin	+0.7
36	18-18	USF	PENNST	Serve err	USF server		+0.4
37	18-19	PENNST	PENNST	Kill	Finley Krystkowiak	set Alexis Stucky	+0.6
38	19-19	PENNST	USF	Kill	Samiyah Abdur-Rahim	set Emelyn Stettin	+0.5
39	20-19	USF	USF	Ace	USF server	aced Finley Krystkowiak	+0.8
40	20-20	USF	PENNST×3	Kill	Finley Krystkowiak	set Alexis Stucky	+0.5
41	20-21	PENNST	PENNST×3	Attack err	Mora Pampin		+0.8
42	20-22	PENNST	PENNST×3	Attack err	Samiyah Abdur-Rahim		+0.6
43	21-22	PENNST	USF	Attack err	Ryla Jones		+0.4
44	21-23	USF	PENNST	Kill	Kennedy Martin	set Alexis Stucky	+0.5
45	22-23	PENNST	USF	Serve err	PENNST server		+0.4
46	23-23	USF	USF	Ace	USF server	aced Whitney Lauenstein	+1.0
47	23-24	USF	PENNST	Kill	Whitney Lauenstein	set Alexis Stucky	+0.9
48	24-24	PENNST	USF	Kill	Mora Pampin	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+0.9
49	24-25	USF	PENNST	Kill	Whitney Lauenstein	set Alexis Stucky	+0.9
50	24-26	PENNST	PENNST	Kill	Whitney Lauenstein	set Alexis Stucky	+1.0

Score shown after each rally, South Fla. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.