Villanova def. Sacramento St. 3–1
(23-25, 25-23, 25-16, 25-16)| Set | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Sets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOVA | 23 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 3 |
| SAC ST | 25 | 23 | 16 | 16 | 1 |
RallyIQ model
Win probability
Biggest swing: 10.6% to Sacramento St. — set 1, NOVA 23-25 SAC ST. Kill by Victoria Marthaler (set by Kaylee Piepho). SAC ST win probability 47% → 57%.
Before first serve
Pre-match
Villanova wins
Sacramento St. wins
- NOVA break %
- 42.8% vs this opp
- SAC ST break %
- 40.2% vs this opp
Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.
Largest win-probability swings
Top plays
- 01Victoria MarthalerKill+10.6%
Kill by Victoria Marthaler (set by Kaylee Piepho)
Set 1 · NOVA 23-25 SAC ST · SAC ST 47% → 57%
- 02SAC ST serverAce+7.9%
Sacramento St. ace on Cat Young
Set 1 · NOVA 22-23 SAC ST · SAC ST 37% → 45%
- 03
- 04Nikola GamlinKill+7.1%
Kill by Nikola Gamlin (set by Makenna Wiepert)
Set 1 · NOVA 23-24 SAC ST · SAC ST 40% → 47%
- 05NOVA serverAce+6.6%
Villanova ace on Charlee Lepp
Set 2 · NOVA 21-20 SAC ST · NOVA 40% → 47%
- 06Campbell McKinnonKill+6.4%
Kill by Campbell McKinnon (set by Alyssa Nelson)
Set 1 · NOVA 22-21 SAC ST · NOVA 61% → 67%
- 07NOVA serverAce+6.1%
Villanova ace on Charlee Lepp
Set 2 · NOVA 22-20 SAC ST · NOVA 47% → 53%
- 08Chloe KellyKill+5.7%
Kill by Chloe Kelly (set by Alyssa Nelson)
Set 1 · NOVA 21-21 SAC ST · NOVA 55% → 61%
Official NCAA box
Box score
| Player | S | K | E | TA | Hit% | AST | SA | SE | DIG | RE | BS | BA | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 11 | 2 | 25 | .360 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 17.5 | |
| 4 | 7 | 2 | 17 | .294 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 7.5 | 16.5 | |
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 10 | .100 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2.5 | 6.5 | |
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 12 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 3.5 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | .500 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 4 | 14 | 6 | 29 | .276 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 2.5 | 17.5 | |
| 4 | 6 | 5 | 19 | .053 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2.5 | 8.5 | |
| 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | .333 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team totals | 48 | 21 | 120 | .225 | 47 | 12 | 6 | 51 | 7 | 4 | 24 | 16 | 98 |
| Player | S | K | E | TA | Hit% | AST | SA | SE | DIG | RE | BS | BA | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 14 | 12 | 47 | .043 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 16.5 | |
| 4 | 9 | 2 | 23 | .304 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1.5 | 11.5 | |
| 4 | 8 | 4 | 16 | .250 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2.5 | 10.5 | |
| 4 | 7 | 3 | 14 | .286 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 9 | |
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 19 | .053 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2.5 | 6.5 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 22 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 4 | 4 | 1 | 8 | .375 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 18 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team totals | 46 | 25 | 129 | .163 | 45 | 7 | 12 | 44 | 12 | 0 | 20 | 10 | 80 |
Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.
Point differential by rally
Momentum
Set 1
23-25
Set 2
25-23
Set 3
25-16
Set 4
25-16
Bars above the line = Sacramento St. leads, below = Villanova leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.
Sideout and break % by rotation slot
Rotations
Villanova
| Slot | Sideout % | Break % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 47%9/19 | 61%11/18 |
| 2 | 64%9/14 | 57%12/21 |
| 3 | 69%9/13 | 57%12/21 |
| 4 | 57%8/14 | 44%7/16 |
| 5 | 54%7/13 | 46%6/13 |
| 6 | 75%6/8 | 25%2/8 |
| All | 59%48/81 | 52%50/97 |
Sacramento St.
| Slot | Sideout % | Break % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 56%9/16 | 47%7/15 |
| 2 | 38%9/24 | 50%9/18 |
| 3 | 50%9/18 | 18%2/11 |
| 4 | 62%8/13 | 43%6/14 |
| 5 | 46%6/13 | 43%6/14 |
| 6 | 46%6/13 | 33%3/9 |
| All | 48%47/97 | 41%33/81 |
Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.
178 rallies
Rally log
| # | NOVA-SAC ST | Srv | Point | End | Player | Setter / blockers / passer | WP Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Set 1 | |||||||
| 1 | 0-1 | SAC ST | SAC ST×3 | Attack err | Loren Winn | blk Skyler Gartin, Charlee Lepp | +2.5 |
| 2 | 0-2 | SAC ST | SAC ST×3 | Attack err | Campbell McKinnon | +2.5 | |
| 3 | 0-3 | SAC ST | SAC ST×3 | Attack err | Cat Young | blk Mia Molnar, Skyler Gartin | +2.5 |
| 4 | 1-3 | SAC ST | NOVA | Kill | Cat Young | set Ava Harris | +1.6 |
| 5 | 1-4 | NOVA | SAC ST | Serve err | NOVA server | +1.8 | |
| 6 | 2-4 | SAC ST | NOVA | Serve err | SAC ST server | +1.7 | |
| 7 | 2-5 | NOVA | SAC ST | Kill | Charlee Lepp | set Makenna Wiepert | +1.9 |
| 8 | 3-5 | SAC ST | NOVA | Serve err | SAC ST server | +1.7 | |
| 9 | 3-6 | NOVA | SAC ST | Kill | Nikola Gamlin | set Makenna Wiepert | +1.9 |
| 10 | 3-7 | SAC ST | SAC ST | Attack err | Reagan McGivern | +2.6 | |
| 11 | 4-7 | SAC ST | NOVA | Kill | Marly Smith | set Alyssa Nelson | +1.6 |
| 12 | 4-8 | NOVA | SAC ST | Kill | Victoria Marthaler | set Kaylee Piepho | +1.9 |
| 13 | 5-8 | SAC ST | NOVA | Kill | Marly Smith | set Ava Harris | +1.6 |
| 14 | 5-9 | NOVA | SAC ST | Serve err | NOVA server | +1.9 | |
| 15 | 6-9 | SAC ST | NOVA | Kill | Loren Winn | set Ava Harris | +1.6 |
| 16 | 7-9 | NOVA | NOVA | Attack err | Skyler Gartin | blk Campbell McKinnon | +2.6 |
| 17 | 7-10 | NOVA | SAC ST | Kill | Addy Scheitlin | set Kaylee Piepho | +2.1 |
| 18 | 8-10 | SAC ST | NOVA | Kill | Cat Young | set Ava Harris | +1.9 |
| 19 | 9-10 | NOVA | NOVA | Attack err | Victoria Marthaler | blk Campbell McKinnon | +2.9 |
| 20 | 9-11 | NOVA | SAC ST×3 | Kill | Charlee Lepp | set Makenna Wiepert | +2.3 |
| 21 | 9-12 | SAC ST | SAC ST×3 | Kill | Victoria Marthaler | set Reese Ampi | +3.1 |
| 22 | 9-13 | SAC ST | SAC ST×3 | Kill | Victoria Marthaler | set Makenna Wiepert | +2.9 |
| 23 | 10-13 | SAC ST | NOVA | Serve err | SAC ST server | +1.7 | |
| 24 | 10-14 | NOVA | SAC ST | Kill | Mia Molnar | set Makenna Wiepert | +2.1 |
| 25 | 11-14 | SAC ST | NOVA | Attack err | Nikola Gamlin | blk Chloe Kelly, Campbell McKinnon | +1.7 |
| 26 | 11-15 | NOVA | SAC ST | Serve err | NOVA server | +2.2 | |
| 27 | 11-16 | SAC ST | SAC ST | Kill | Addy Scheitlin | set Kaylee Piepho | +2.5 |
| 28 | 12-16 | SAC ST | NOVA | Kill | Chloe Kelly | set Alyssa Nelson | +1.3 |
| 29 | 12-17 | NOVA | SAC ST | Attack err | Reagan McGivern | +1.8 | |
| 30 | 12-18 | SAC ST | SAC ST | Ace | SAC ST server | aced Chloe Kelly | +1.9 |
| 31 | 13-18 | SAC ST | NOVA | Kill | Chloe Kelly | set Ava Harris | +0.9 |
| 32 | 13-19 | NOVA | SAC ST | Kill | Charlee Lepp | set Reese Ampi | +1.3 |
| 33 | 14-19 | SAC ST | NOVA | Kill | Cat Young | set Ava Harris | +0.8 |
| 34 | 14-20 | NOVA | SAC ST | Kill | Skyler Gartin | set Kaylee Piepho | +1.2 |
| 35 | 15-20 | SAC ST | NOVA | Kill | Cat Young | set Ava Harris | +0.7 |
| 36 | 15-21 | NOVA | SAC ST | Attack err | Taylor Lewis | +1.1 | |
| 37 | 16-21 | SAC ST | NOVA×7 | Kill | Taylor Lewis | set Alyssa Nelson | +0.5 |
| 38 | 17-21 | NOVA | NOVA×7 | Attack err | Victoria Marthaler | blk Campbell McKinnon, Taylor Lewis | +1.3 |
| 39 | 18-21 | NOVA | NOVA×7 | Kill | Chloe Kelly | set Lola Buck-Taylor | +2.1 |
| 40 | 19-21 | NOVA | NOVA×7 | Ace | NOVA server | aced Team | +3.1 |
| 41 | 20-21 | NOVA | NOVA×7 | Attack err | Victoria Marthaler | +4.4 | |
| 42 | 21-21 | NOVA | NOVA×7 | Kill | Chloe Kelly | set Alyssa Nelson | +5.7 |
| 43 | 22-21 | NOVA | NOVA×7 | Kill | Campbell McKinnon | set Alyssa Nelson | +6.4 |
| 44 | 22-22 | NOVA | SAC ST | Attack err | Chloe Kelly | +4.4 | |
| 45 | 22-23 | SAC ST | SAC ST | Ace | SAC ST server | aced Cat Young | +7.9 |
| 46 | 23-23 | SAC ST | NOVA | Serve err | SAC ST server | +5.3 | |
| 47 | 23-24 | NOVA | SAC ST | Kill | Nikola Gamlin | set Makenna Wiepert | +7.1 |
| 48 | 23-25 | SAC ST | SAC ST | Kill | Victoria Marthaler | set Kaylee Piepho | +10.6 |
| Set 2 | |||||||
| 1 | 1-0 | NOVA | NOVA×3 | Ace | NOVA server | aced Charlee Lepp | +2.7 |
| 2 | 2-0 | NOVA | NOVA×3 | Kill | Cat Young | set Marikate Ritterbusch | +2.6 |
| 3 | 3-0 | NOVA | NOVA×3 | Kill | Campbell McKinnon | set Ava Harris | +2.5 |
| 4 | 3-1 | NOVA | SAC ST×3 | Kill | Charlee Lepp | set Makenna Wiepert | +1.7 |
| 5 | 3-2 | SAC ST | SAC ST×3 | Kill | Victoria Marthaler | set Makenna Wiepert | +2.6 |
| 6 | 3-3 | SAC ST | SAC ST×3 | Ace | SAC ST server | aced Chloe Kelly | +2.9 |
| 7 | 4-3 | SAC ST | NOVA | Serve err | SAC ST server | +2.1 | |
| 8 | 5-3 | NOVA | NOVA | Attack err | Mia Molnar | blk Campbell McKinnon, Taylor Lewis | +2.8 |
| 9 | 5-4 | NOVA | SAC ST | Attack err | Cat Young | blk Skyler Gartin, Charlee Lepp | +2.0 |
| 10 | 6-4 | SAC ST | NOVA | Kill | Cat Young | set Lola Buck-Taylor | +2.0 |
| 11 | 6-5 | NOVA | SAC ST×4 | Kill | Mia Molnar | set Makenna Wiepert | +2.0 |
| 12 | 6-6 | SAC ST | SAC ST×4 | Attack err | Campbell McKinnon | +3.1 | |
| 13 | 6-7 | SAC ST | SAC ST×4 | Attack err | Taylor Lewis | blk Victoria Marthaler, Nikola Gamlin | +3.3 |
| 14 | 6-8 | SAC ST | SAC ST×4 | Attack err | Chloe Kelly | blk Mia Molnar, Nikola Gamlin | +3.4 |
| 15 | 7-8 | SAC ST | NOVA×3 | Kill | Taylor Lewis | set Alyssa Nelson | +2.3 |
| 16 | 8-8 | NOVA | NOVA×3 | Attack err | Victoria Marthaler | +3.4 | |
| 17 | 9-8 | NOVA | NOVA×3 | Attack err | Victoria Marthaler | +3.4 | |
| 18 | 9-9 | NOVA | SAC ST×3 | Kill | Mia Molnar | set Makenna Wiepert | +2.4 |
| 19 | 9-10 | SAC ST | SAC ST×3 | Ace | SAC ST server | aced Team | +3.6 |
| 20 | 9-11 | SAC ST | SAC ST×3 | Attack err | Taylor Lewis | +3.7 | |
| 21 | 10-11 | SAC ST | NOVA×4 | Kill | Chloe Kelly | set Alyssa Nelson | +2.4 |
| 22 | 11-11 | NOVA | NOVA×4 | Kill | Chloe Kelly | set Ava Harris | +3.7 |
| 23 | 12-11 | NOVA | NOVA×4 | Ace | NOVA server | aced Victoria Marthaler | +3.7 |
| 24 | 13-11 | NOVA | NOVA×4 | Attack err | Addy Scheitlin | +3.6 | |
| 25 | 13-12 | NOVA | SAC ST×4 | Kill | Victoria Marthaler | set Kaylee Piepho | +2.4 |
| 26 | 13-13 | SAC ST | SAC ST×4 | Ace | SAC ST server | aced Chloe Kelly | +3.9 |
| 27 | 13-14 | SAC ST | SAC ST×4 | Attack err | Chloe Kelly | blk Nikola Gamlin, Addy Scheitlin | +4.2 |
| 28 | 13-15 | SAC ST | SAC ST×4 | Attack err | Loren Winn | blk Charlee Lepp, Nikola Gamlin | +4.3 |
| 29 | 14-15 | SAC ST | NOVA | Kill | Chloe Kelly | set Ava Harris | +2.8 |
| 30 | 14-16 | NOVA | SAC ST | Kill | Nikola Gamlin | set Kaylee Piepho | +3.3 |
| 31 | 15-16 | SAC ST | NOVA | Kill | Reagan McGivern | set Ava Harris | +2.9 |
| 32 | 15-17 | NOVA | SAC ST | Kill | Skyler Gartin | set Kaylee Piepho | +3.4 |
| 33 | 16-17 | SAC ST | NOVA | Kill | Loren Winn | set Ava Harris | +3.0 |
| 34 | 17-17 | NOVA | NOVA | Attack err | Skyler Gartin | +4.8 | |
| 35 | 17-18 | NOVA | SAC ST | Kill | Mia Molnar | set Makenna Wiepert | +3.8 |
| 36 | 17-19 | SAC ST | SAC ST | Kill | Mia Molnar | set Reese Ampi | +5.4 |
| 37 | 18-19 | SAC ST | NOVA | Kill | Campbell McKinnon | set Alyssa Nelson | +3.3 |
| 38 | 19-19 | NOVA | NOVA | Ace | NOVA server | aced Reese Ampi | +5.5 |
| 39 | 19-20 | NOVA | SAC ST | Kill | Victoria Marthaler | set Makenna Wiepert | +4.4 |
| 40 | 20-20 | SAC ST | NOVA×3 | Attack err | Victoria Marthaler | blk Campbell McKinnon, Taylor Lewis | +4.2 |
| 41 | 21-20 | NOVA | NOVA×3 | Ace | NOVA server | aced Charlee Lepp | +6.6 |
| 42 | 22-20 | NOVA | NOVA×3 | Ace | NOVA server | aced Charlee Lepp | +6.1 |
| 43 | 22-21 | NOVA | SAC ST | Kill | Mia Molnar | set Victoria Marthaler | +3.4 |
| 44 | 23-21 | SAC ST | NOVA | Serve err | SAC ST server | +4.8 | |
| 45 | 23-22 | NOVA | SAC ST | Kill | Victoria Marthaler | set Kaylee Piepho | +3.5 |
| 46 | 24-22 | SAC ST | NOVA | Serve err | SAC ST server | +5.6 | |
| 47 | 24-23 | NOVA | SAC ST | Kill | Charlee Lepp | set Kaylee Piepho | +3.1 |
| 48 | 25-23 | SAC ST | NOVA | Kill | Cat Young | set Ava Harris | +7.3 |
| Set 3 | |||||||
| 1 | 0-1 | SAC ST | SAC ST | Ace | SAC ST server | aced Chloe Kelly | +3.4 |
| 2 | 0-2 | SAC ST | SAC ST | Attack err | Chloe Kelly | +3.4 | |
| 3 | 1-2 | SAC ST | NOVA×3 | Kill | Chloe Kelly | set Alyssa Nelson | +2.3 |
| 4 | 2-2 | NOVA | NOVA×3 | Kill | Taylor Lewis | set Alyssa Nelson | +3.4 |
| 5 | 3-2 | NOVA | NOVA×3 | Kill | Cat Young | set Lola Buck-Taylor | +3.3 |
| 6 | 3-3 | NOVA | SAC ST | Serve err | NOVA server | +2.4 | |
| 7 | 4-3 | SAC ST | NOVA | Serve err | SAC ST server | +2.4 | |
| 8 | 4-4 | NOVA | SAC ST | Kill | Victoria Marthaler | set Makenna Wiepert | +2.5 |
| 9 | 5-4 | SAC ST | NOVA | Kill | Campbell McKinnon | set Chloe Kelly | +2.5 |
| 10 | 6-4 | NOVA | NOVA | Attack err | Mia Molnar | blk Campbell McKinnon, Cat Young | +3.4 |
| 11 | 6-5 | NOVA | SAC ST | Kill | Victoria Marthaler | set Makenna Wiepert | +2.3 |
| 12 | 7-5 | SAC ST | NOVA | Serve err | SAC ST server | +2.4 | |
| 13 | 7-6 | NOVA | SAC ST×3 | Attack err | Chloe Kelly | blk Nikola Gamlin, Addy Scheitlin | +2.4 |
| 14 | 7-7 | SAC ST | SAC ST×3 | Kill | Nikola Gamlin | +3.7 | |
| 15 | 7-8 | SAC ST | SAC ST×3 | Kill | Nikola Gamlin | set Kaylee Piepho | +4.0 |
| 16 | 8-8 | SAC ST | NOVA | Kill | Chloe Kelly | set Ava Harris | +2.8 |
| 17 | 8-9 | NOVA | SAC ST | Kill | Victoria Marthaler | set Kaylee Piepho | +2.9 |
| 18 | 9-9 | SAC ST | NOVA×7 | Kill | Loren Winn | set Ava Harris | +2.8 |
| 19 | 10-9 | NOVA | NOVA×7 | Attack err | Victoria Marthaler | blk Reagan McGivern, Taylor Lewis | +4.1 |
| 20 | 11-9 | NOVA | NOVA×7 | Kill | Reagan McGivern | +3.9 | |
| 21 | 12-9 | NOVA | NOVA×7 | Attack err | Skyler Gartin | blk Reagan McGivern, Chloe Kelly | +3.6 |
| 22 | 13-9 | NOVA | NOVA×7 | Kill | Taylor Lewis | set Alyssa Nelson | +3.1 |
| 23 | 14-9 | NOVA | NOVA×7 | Ace | NOVA server | aced Victoria Marthaler | +2.5 |
| 24 | 15-9 | NOVA | NOVA×7 | Attack err | Victoria Marthaler | blk Reagan McGivern, Taylor Lewis | +1.9 |
| 25 | 15-10 | NOVA | SAC ST | Kill | Charlee Lepp | set Kaylee Piepho | +1.0 |
| 26 | 16-10 | SAC ST | NOVA | Kill | Chloe Kelly | set Alyssa Nelson | +1.3 |
| 27 | 16-11 | NOVA | SAC ST×3 | Kill | Skyler Gartin | set Makenna Wiepert | +0.9 |
| 28 | 16-12 | SAC ST | SAC ST×3 | Ace | SAC ST server | aced Lola Buck-Taylor | +1.9 |
| 29 | 16-13 | SAC ST | SAC ST×3 | Kill | Mia Molnar | set Makenna Wiepert | +2.6 |
| 30 | 17-13 | SAC ST | NOVA | Kill | Reagan McGivern | set Alyssa Nelson | +2.3 |
| 31 | 17-14 | NOVA | SAC ST | Kill | Skyler Gartin | set Makenna Wiepert | +1.9 |
| 32 | 18-14 | SAC ST | NOVA×3 | Serve err | SAC ST server | +2.4 | |
| 33 | 19-14 | NOVA | NOVA×3 | Kill | Chloe Kelly | set Ava Harris | +2.5 |
| 34 | 20-14 | NOVA | NOVA×3 | Kill | Campbell McKinnon | set Ava Harris | +1.6 |
| 35 | 20-15 | NOVA | SAC ST | Kill | Victoria Marthaler | set Makenna Wiepert | +0.6 |
| 36 | 21-15 | SAC ST | NOVA | Attack err | Nikola Gamlin | blk Campbell McKinnon | +1.0 |
| 37 | 22-15 | NOVA | NOVA | Attack err | Nikola Gamlin | blk Campbell McKinnon, Chloe Kelly | +0.7 |
| 38 | 22-16 | NOVA | SAC ST | Serve err | NOVA server | +0.2 | |
| 39 | 23-16 | SAC ST | NOVA×3 | Serve err | SAC ST server | +0.4 | |
| 40 | 24-16 | NOVA | NOVA×3 | Attack err | Charlee Lepp | +0.1 | |
| 41 | 25-16 | NOVA | NOVA×3 | Attack err | Charlee Lepp | blk Reagan McGivern, Loren Winn | +0.0 |
| Set 4 | |||||||
| 1 | 0-1 | NOVA | SAC ST×4 | Attack err | Taylor Lewis | blk Mia Molnar, Skyler Gartin | +2.1 |
| 2 | 0-2 | SAC ST | SAC ST×4 | Attack err | Reagan McGivern | +3.1 | |
| 3 | 0-3 | SAC ST | SAC ST×4 | Kill | Victoria Marthaler | set Makenna Wiepert | +3.1 |
| 4 | 0-4 | SAC ST | SAC ST×4 | Attack err | Chloe Kelly | +3.0 | |
| 5 | 1-4 | SAC ST | NOVA×5 | Kill | Cat Young | set Alyssa Nelson | +1.9 |
| 6 | 2-4 | NOVA | NOVA×5 | Ace | NOVA server | aced Victoria Marthaler | +2.9 |
| 7 | 3-4 | NOVA | NOVA×5 | Ace | NOVA server | aced Victoria Marthaler | +3.1 |
| 8 | 4-4 | NOVA | NOVA×5 | Attack err | Victoria Marthaler | +3.1 | |
| 9 | 5-4 | NOVA | NOVA×5 | Attack err | Victoria Marthaler | +3.1 | |
| 10 | 5-5 | NOVA | SAC ST | Attack err | Taylor Lewis | blk Skyler Gartin, Mia Molnar | +2.3 |
| 11 | 6-5 | SAC ST | NOVA | Kill | Taylor Lewis | set Alyssa Nelson | +2.3 |
| 12 | 6-6 | NOVA | SAC ST | Kill | Nikola Gamlin | set Makenna Wiepert | +2.3 |
| 13 | 7-6 | SAC ST | NOVA | Kill | Alyssa Nelson | set Cat Young | +2.3 |
| 14 | 7-7 | NOVA | SAC ST | Kill | Addy Scheitlin | set Kaylee Piepho | +2.4 |
| 15 | 7-8 | SAC ST | SAC ST | Kill | Nikola Gamlin | set Kaylee Piepho | +3.6 |
| 16 | 8-8 | SAC ST | NOVA×3 | Kill | Chloe Kelly | set Ava Harris | +2.5 |
| 17 | 9-8 | NOVA | NOVA×3 | Kill | Cat Young | set Ava Harris | +3.5 |
| 18 | 10-8 | NOVA | NOVA×3 | Ace | NOVA server | aced Team | +3.4 |
| 19 | 10-9 | NOVA | SAC ST | Kill | Nikola Gamlin | set Kaylee Piepho | +2.3 |
| 20 | 11-9 | SAC ST | NOVA | Kill | Cat Young | set Ava Harris | +2.4 |
| 21 | 11-10 | NOVA | SAC ST×3 | Kill | Charlee Lepp | set Kaylee Piepho | +2.4 |
| 22 | 11-11 | SAC ST | SAC ST×3 | Attack err | Loren Winn | +3.8 | |
| 23 | 11-12 | SAC ST | SAC ST×3 | Kill | Charlee Lepp | set Reese Ampi | +4.1 |
| 24 | 12-12 | SAC ST | NOVA | Serve err | SAC ST server | +2.8 | |
| 25 | 13-12 | NOVA | NOVA | Attack err | Mia Molnar | +4.0 | |
| 26 | 13-13 | NOVA | SAC ST | Kill | Charlee Lepp | set Makenna Wiepert | +2.9 |
| 27 | 14-13 | SAC ST | NOVA×4 | Kill | Reagan McGivern | set Alyssa Nelson | +3.0 |
| 28 | 15-13 | NOVA | NOVA×4 | Ace | NOVA server | aced Victoria Marthaler | +4.0 |
| 29 | 16-13 | NOVA | NOVA×4 | Attack err | Victoria Marthaler | blk Reagan McGivern, Chloe Kelly | +3.6 |
| 30 | 17-13 | NOVA | NOVA×4 | Ace | NOVA server | aced Team | +3.0 |
| 31 | 17-14 | NOVA | SAC ST | Kill | Victoria Marthaler | set Makenna Wiepert | +1.7 |
| 32 | 18-14 | SAC ST | NOVA×6 | Kill | Chloe Kelly | set Alyssa Nelson | +2.1 |
| 33 | 19-14 | NOVA | NOVA×6 | Bad set | Makenna Wiepert | +2.2 | |
| 34 | 20-14 | NOVA | NOVA×6 | Attack err | Nikola Gamlin | blk Campbell McKinnon | +1.4 |
| 35 | 21-14 | NOVA | NOVA×6 | Kill | Campbell McKinnon | set Alyssa Nelson | +0.8 |
| 36 | 22-14 | NOVA | NOVA×6 | Attack err | Victoria Marthaler | blk Campbell McKinnon, Chloe Kelly | +0.3 |
| 37 | 23-14 | NOVA | NOVA×6 | Kill | Taylor Lewis | set Alyssa Nelson | +0.1 |
| 38 | 23-15 | NOVA | SAC ST | Serve err | NOVA server | +0.0 | |
| 39 | 24-15 | SAC ST | NOVA | Kill | Chloe Kelly | set Alyssa Nelson | +0.0 |
| 40 | 24-16 | NOVA | SAC ST | Kill | Addy Scheitlin | set Kaylee Piepho | +0.0 |
| 41 | 25-16 | SAC ST | NOVA | Kill | Campbell McKinnon | set Ava Harris | +0.0 |
Score shown after each rally, Villanova first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.