CollegeVolleyball
Final · 4 setsSat, Aug 29, 2026
Villanova logo

AwayBIG-EAST

3:1

Villanova def. Sacramento St. 31

(23-25, 25-23, 25-16, 25-16)
Set1234Sets
NOVA232525253
SAC ST252316161

RallyIQ model

Win probability

SAC ST above 50 · NOVA below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100SAC STNOVABiggest swing +10.6% SAC ST · S1 23-25rally 178 · set 4

Biggest swing: 10.6% to Sacramento St. — set 1, NOVA 23-25 SAC ST. Kill by Victoria Marthaler (set by Kaylee Piepho). SAC ST win probability 47%57%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

NOVA 63.8%36.2% SAC ST

Villanova wins

3-0
19.3%
3-1
24.4%
3-2
20.0%

Sacramento St. wins

3-0
7.5%
3-1
13.0%
3-2
15.7%
NOVA break %
42.8% vs this opp
SAC ST break %
40.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

  1. 01

    Kill by Victoria Marthaler (set by Kaylee Piepho)

    Set 1 · NOVA 23-25 SAC ST · SAC ST 47%57%

  2. 02
    SAC ST serverAce+7.9%

    Sacramento St. ace on Cat Young

    Set 1 · NOVA 22-23 SAC ST · SAC ST 37%45%

  3. 03
    Cat YoungKill+7.3%

    Kill by Cat Young (set by Ava Harris)

    Set 2 · NOVA 25-23 SAC ST · NOVA 53%61%

  4. 04
    Nikola GamlinKill+7.1%

    Kill by Nikola Gamlin (set by Makenna Wiepert)

    Set 1 · NOVA 23-24 SAC ST · SAC ST 40%47%

  5. 05
    NOVA serverAce+6.6%

    Villanova ace on Charlee Lepp

    Set 2 · NOVA 21-20 SAC ST · NOVA 40%47%

  6. 06

    Kill by Campbell McKinnon (set by Alyssa Nelson)

    Set 1 · NOVA 22-21 SAC ST · NOVA 61%67%

  7. 07
    NOVA serverAce+6.1%

    Villanova ace on Charlee Lepp

    Set 2 · NOVA 22-20 SAC ST · NOVA 47%53%

  8. 08
    Chloe KellyKill+5.7%

    Kill by Chloe Kelly (set by Alyssa Nelson)

    Set 1 · NOVA 21-21 SAC ST · NOVA 55%61%

Official NCAA box

Box score

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
411225.36016191010.517.5
47217.29402110477.516.5
44310.10000010052.56.5
43312.00000030010.53.5
4001.0002110500001
1204.500000200002
414629.27611234052.517.5
46519.05300020052.58.5
4103.33320111000002
4000111300001
40003001210000
Team totals4821120.225471265174241698
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
4141247.04312265010.516.5
49223.304013113031.511.5
48416.25000000052.510.5
47314.286000100429
44319.05300110052.56.5
400022221000002
4418.375000200215
4000012000001
40001812100001
4001.0004001110000
3001.000000100000
Team totals4625129.1634571244120201080

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 7 NOVA · SAC ST 4

Set 1

23-25

Longest run 7 NOVASAC ST 3

Set 2

25-23

Longest run 4 NOVASAC ST 4

Set 3

25-16

Longest run 7 NOVASAC ST 3

Set 4

25-16

Longest run 6 NOVASAC ST 4

Bars above the line = Sacramento St. leads, below = Villanova leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Villanova

SlotSideout %Break %
1
47%9/19
61%11/18
2
64%9/14
57%12/21
3
69%9/13
57%12/21
4
57%8/14
44%7/16
5
54%7/13
46%6/13
6
75%6/8
25%2/8
All
59%48/81
52%50/97

Sacramento St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
56%9/16
47%7/15
2
38%9/24
50%9/18
3
50%9/18
18%2/11
4
62%8/13
43%6/14
5
46%6/13
43%6/14
6
46%6/13
33%3/9
All
48%47/97
41%33/81

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

178 rallies

Rally log

#NOVA-SAC STSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1SAC STSAC ST×3Attack errLoren Winnblk Skyler Gartin, Charlee Lepp+2.5
20-2SAC STSAC ST×3Attack errCampbell McKinnon+2.5
30-3SAC STSAC ST×3Attack errCat Youngblk Mia Molnar, Skyler Gartin+2.5
41-3SAC STNOVAKillCat Youngset Ava Harris+1.6
51-4NOVASAC STServe errNOVA server+1.8
62-4SAC STNOVAServe errSAC ST server+1.7
72-5NOVASAC STKillCharlee Leppset Makenna Wiepert+1.9
83-5SAC STNOVAServe errSAC ST server+1.7
93-6NOVASAC STKillNikola Gamlinset Makenna Wiepert+1.9
103-7SAC STSAC STAttack errReagan McGivern+2.6
114-7SAC STNOVAKillMarly Smithset Alyssa Nelson+1.6
124-8NOVASAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Kaylee Piepho+1.9
135-8SAC STNOVAKillMarly Smithset Ava Harris+1.6
145-9NOVASAC STServe errNOVA server+1.9
156-9SAC STNOVAKillLoren Winnset Ava Harris+1.6
167-9NOVANOVAAttack errSkyler Gartinblk Campbell McKinnon+2.6
177-10NOVASAC STKillAddy Scheitlinset Kaylee Piepho+2.1
188-10SAC STNOVAKillCat Youngset Ava Harris+1.9
199-10NOVANOVAAttack errVictoria Marthalerblk Campbell McKinnon+2.9
209-11NOVASAC ST×3KillCharlee Leppset Makenna Wiepert+2.3
219-12SAC STSAC ST×3KillVictoria Marthalerset Reese Ampi+3.1
229-13SAC STSAC ST×3KillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+2.9
2310-13SAC STNOVAServe errSAC ST server+1.7
2410-14NOVASAC STKillMia Molnarset Makenna Wiepert+2.1
2511-14SAC STNOVAAttack errNikola Gamlinblk Chloe Kelly, Campbell McKinnon+1.7
2611-15NOVASAC STServe errNOVA server+2.2
2711-16SAC STSAC STKillAddy Scheitlinset Kaylee Piepho+2.5
2812-16SAC STNOVAKillChloe Kellyset Alyssa Nelson+1.3
2912-17NOVASAC STAttack errReagan McGivern+1.8
3012-18SAC STSAC STAceSAC ST serveraced Chloe Kelly+1.9
3113-18SAC STNOVAKillChloe Kellyset Ava Harris+0.9
3213-19NOVASAC STKillCharlee Leppset Reese Ampi+1.3
3314-19SAC STNOVAKillCat Youngset Ava Harris+0.8
3414-20NOVASAC STKillSkyler Gartinset Kaylee Piepho+1.2
3515-20SAC STNOVAKillCat Youngset Ava Harris+0.7
3615-21NOVASAC STAttack errTaylor Lewis+1.1
3716-21SAC STNOVA×7KillTaylor Lewisset Alyssa Nelson+0.5
3817-21NOVANOVA×7Attack errVictoria Marthalerblk Campbell McKinnon, Taylor Lewis+1.3
3918-21NOVANOVA×7KillChloe Kellyset Lola Buck-Taylor+2.1
4019-21NOVANOVA×7AceNOVA serveraced Team+3.1
4120-21NOVANOVA×7Attack errVictoria Marthaler+4.4
4221-21NOVANOVA×7KillChloe Kellyset Alyssa Nelson+5.7
4322-21NOVANOVA×7KillCampbell McKinnonset Alyssa Nelson+6.4
4422-22NOVASAC STAttack errChloe Kelly+4.4
4522-23SAC STSAC STAceSAC ST serveraced Cat Young+7.9
4623-23SAC STNOVAServe errSAC ST server+5.3
4723-24NOVASAC STKillNikola Gamlinset Makenna Wiepert+7.1
4823-25SAC STSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Kaylee Piepho+10.6
Set 2
11-0NOVANOVA×3AceNOVA serveraced Charlee Lepp+2.7
22-0NOVANOVA×3KillCat Youngset Marikate Ritterbusch+2.6
33-0NOVANOVA×3KillCampbell McKinnonset Ava Harris+2.5
43-1NOVASAC ST×3KillCharlee Leppset Makenna Wiepert+1.7
53-2SAC STSAC ST×3KillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+2.6
63-3SAC STSAC ST×3AceSAC ST serveraced Chloe Kelly+2.9
74-3SAC STNOVAServe errSAC ST server+2.1
85-3NOVANOVAAttack errMia Molnarblk Campbell McKinnon, Taylor Lewis+2.8
95-4NOVASAC STAttack errCat Youngblk Skyler Gartin, Charlee Lepp+2.0
106-4SAC STNOVAKillCat Youngset Lola Buck-Taylor+2.0
116-5NOVASAC ST×4KillMia Molnarset Makenna Wiepert+2.0
126-6SAC STSAC ST×4Attack errCampbell McKinnon+3.1
136-7SAC STSAC ST×4Attack errTaylor Lewisblk Victoria Marthaler, Nikola Gamlin+3.3
146-8SAC STSAC ST×4Attack errChloe Kellyblk Mia Molnar, Nikola Gamlin+3.4
157-8SAC STNOVA×3KillTaylor Lewisset Alyssa Nelson+2.3
168-8NOVANOVA×3Attack errVictoria Marthaler+3.4
179-8NOVANOVA×3Attack errVictoria Marthaler+3.4
189-9NOVASAC ST×3KillMia Molnarset Makenna Wiepert+2.4
199-10SAC STSAC ST×3AceSAC ST serveraced Team+3.6
209-11SAC STSAC ST×3Attack errTaylor Lewis+3.7
2110-11SAC STNOVA×4KillChloe Kellyset Alyssa Nelson+2.4
2211-11NOVANOVA×4KillChloe Kellyset Ava Harris+3.7
2312-11NOVANOVA×4AceNOVA serveraced Victoria Marthaler+3.7
2413-11NOVANOVA×4Attack errAddy Scheitlin+3.6
2513-12NOVASAC ST×4KillVictoria Marthalerset Kaylee Piepho+2.4
2613-13SAC STSAC ST×4AceSAC ST serveraced Chloe Kelly+3.9
2713-14SAC STSAC ST×4Attack errChloe Kellyblk Nikola Gamlin, Addy Scheitlin+4.2
2813-15SAC STSAC ST×4Attack errLoren Winnblk Charlee Lepp, Nikola Gamlin+4.3
2914-15SAC STNOVAKillChloe Kellyset Ava Harris+2.8
3014-16NOVASAC STKillNikola Gamlinset Kaylee Piepho+3.3
3115-16SAC STNOVAKillReagan McGivernset Ava Harris+2.9
3215-17NOVASAC STKillSkyler Gartinset Kaylee Piepho+3.4
3316-17SAC STNOVAKillLoren Winnset Ava Harris+3.0
3417-17NOVANOVAAttack errSkyler Gartin+4.8
3517-18NOVASAC STKillMia Molnarset Makenna Wiepert+3.8
3617-19SAC STSAC STKillMia Molnarset Reese Ampi+5.4
3718-19SAC STNOVAKillCampbell McKinnonset Alyssa Nelson+3.3
3819-19NOVANOVAAceNOVA serveraced Reese Ampi+5.5
3919-20NOVASAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+4.4
4020-20SAC STNOVA×3Attack errVictoria Marthalerblk Campbell McKinnon, Taylor Lewis+4.2
4121-20NOVANOVA×3AceNOVA serveraced Charlee Lepp+6.6
4222-20NOVANOVA×3AceNOVA serveraced Charlee Lepp+6.1
4322-21NOVASAC STKillMia Molnarset Victoria Marthaler+3.4
4423-21SAC STNOVAServe errSAC ST server+4.8
4523-22NOVASAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Kaylee Piepho+3.5
4624-22SAC STNOVAServe errSAC ST server+5.6
4724-23NOVASAC STKillCharlee Leppset Kaylee Piepho+3.1
4825-23SAC STNOVAKillCat Youngset Ava Harris+7.3
Set 3
10-1SAC STSAC STAceSAC ST serveraced Chloe Kelly+3.4
20-2SAC STSAC STAttack errChloe Kelly+3.4
31-2SAC STNOVA×3KillChloe Kellyset Alyssa Nelson+2.3
42-2NOVANOVA×3KillTaylor Lewisset Alyssa Nelson+3.4
53-2NOVANOVA×3KillCat Youngset Lola Buck-Taylor+3.3
63-3NOVASAC STServe errNOVA server+2.4
74-3SAC STNOVAServe errSAC ST server+2.4
84-4NOVASAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+2.5
95-4SAC STNOVAKillCampbell McKinnonset Chloe Kelly+2.5
106-4NOVANOVAAttack errMia Molnarblk Campbell McKinnon, Cat Young+3.4
116-5NOVASAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+2.3
127-5SAC STNOVAServe errSAC ST server+2.4
137-6NOVASAC ST×3Attack errChloe Kellyblk Nikola Gamlin, Addy Scheitlin+2.4
147-7SAC STSAC ST×3KillNikola Gamlin+3.7
157-8SAC STSAC ST×3KillNikola Gamlinset Kaylee Piepho+4.0
168-8SAC STNOVAKillChloe Kellyset Ava Harris+2.8
178-9NOVASAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Kaylee Piepho+2.9
189-9SAC STNOVA×7KillLoren Winnset Ava Harris+2.8
1910-9NOVANOVA×7Attack errVictoria Marthalerblk Reagan McGivern, Taylor Lewis+4.1
2011-9NOVANOVA×7KillReagan McGivern+3.9
2112-9NOVANOVA×7Attack errSkyler Gartinblk Reagan McGivern, Chloe Kelly+3.6
2213-9NOVANOVA×7KillTaylor Lewisset Alyssa Nelson+3.1
2314-9NOVANOVA×7AceNOVA serveraced Victoria Marthaler+2.5
2415-9NOVANOVA×7Attack errVictoria Marthalerblk Reagan McGivern, Taylor Lewis+1.9
2515-10NOVASAC STKillCharlee Leppset Kaylee Piepho+1.0
2616-10SAC STNOVAKillChloe Kellyset Alyssa Nelson+1.3
2716-11NOVASAC ST×3KillSkyler Gartinset Makenna Wiepert+0.9
2816-12SAC STSAC ST×3AceSAC ST serveraced Lola Buck-Taylor+1.9
2916-13SAC STSAC ST×3KillMia Molnarset Makenna Wiepert+2.6
3017-13SAC STNOVAKillReagan McGivernset Alyssa Nelson+2.3
3117-14NOVASAC STKillSkyler Gartinset Makenna Wiepert+1.9
3218-14SAC STNOVA×3Serve errSAC ST server+2.4
3319-14NOVANOVA×3KillChloe Kellyset Ava Harris+2.5
3420-14NOVANOVA×3KillCampbell McKinnonset Ava Harris+1.6
3520-15NOVASAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+0.6
3621-15SAC STNOVAAttack errNikola Gamlinblk Campbell McKinnon+1.0
3722-15NOVANOVAAttack errNikola Gamlinblk Campbell McKinnon, Chloe Kelly+0.7
3822-16NOVASAC STServe errNOVA server+0.2
3923-16SAC STNOVA×3Serve errSAC ST server+0.4
4024-16NOVANOVA×3Attack errCharlee Lepp+0.1
4125-16NOVANOVA×3Attack errCharlee Leppblk Reagan McGivern, Loren Winn+0.0
Set 4
10-1NOVASAC ST×4Attack errTaylor Lewisblk Mia Molnar, Skyler Gartin+2.1
20-2SAC STSAC ST×4Attack errReagan McGivern+3.1
30-3SAC STSAC ST×4KillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+3.1
40-4SAC STSAC ST×4Attack errChloe Kelly+3.0
51-4SAC STNOVA×5KillCat Youngset Alyssa Nelson+1.9
62-4NOVANOVA×5AceNOVA serveraced Victoria Marthaler+2.9
73-4NOVANOVA×5AceNOVA serveraced Victoria Marthaler+3.1
84-4NOVANOVA×5Attack errVictoria Marthaler+3.1
95-4NOVANOVA×5Attack errVictoria Marthaler+3.1
105-5NOVASAC STAttack errTaylor Lewisblk Skyler Gartin, Mia Molnar+2.3
116-5SAC STNOVAKillTaylor Lewisset Alyssa Nelson+2.3
126-6NOVASAC STKillNikola Gamlinset Makenna Wiepert+2.3
137-6SAC STNOVAKillAlyssa Nelsonset Cat Young+2.3
147-7NOVASAC STKillAddy Scheitlinset Kaylee Piepho+2.4
157-8SAC STSAC STKillNikola Gamlinset Kaylee Piepho+3.6
168-8SAC STNOVA×3KillChloe Kellyset Ava Harris+2.5
179-8NOVANOVA×3KillCat Youngset Ava Harris+3.5
1810-8NOVANOVA×3AceNOVA serveraced Team+3.4
1910-9NOVASAC STKillNikola Gamlinset Kaylee Piepho+2.3
2011-9SAC STNOVAKillCat Youngset Ava Harris+2.4
2111-10NOVASAC ST×3KillCharlee Leppset Kaylee Piepho+2.4
2211-11SAC STSAC ST×3Attack errLoren Winn+3.8
2311-12SAC STSAC ST×3KillCharlee Leppset Reese Ampi+4.1
2412-12SAC STNOVAServe errSAC ST server+2.8
2513-12NOVANOVAAttack errMia Molnar+4.0
2613-13NOVASAC STKillCharlee Leppset Makenna Wiepert+2.9
2714-13SAC STNOVA×4KillReagan McGivernset Alyssa Nelson+3.0
2815-13NOVANOVA×4AceNOVA serveraced Victoria Marthaler+4.0
2916-13NOVANOVA×4Attack errVictoria Marthalerblk Reagan McGivern, Chloe Kelly+3.6
3017-13NOVANOVA×4AceNOVA serveraced Team+3.0
3117-14NOVASAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+1.7
3218-14SAC STNOVA×6KillChloe Kellyset Alyssa Nelson+2.1
3319-14NOVANOVA×6Bad setMakenna Wiepert+2.2
3420-14NOVANOVA×6Attack errNikola Gamlinblk Campbell McKinnon+1.4
3521-14NOVANOVA×6KillCampbell McKinnonset Alyssa Nelson+0.8
3622-14NOVANOVA×6Attack errVictoria Marthalerblk Campbell McKinnon, Chloe Kelly+0.3
3723-14NOVANOVA×6KillTaylor Lewisset Alyssa Nelson+0.1
3823-15NOVASAC STServe errNOVA server+0.0
3924-15SAC STNOVAKillChloe Kellyset Alyssa Nelson+0.0
4024-16NOVASAC STKillAddy Scheitlinset Kaylee Piepho+0.0
4125-16SAC STNOVAKillCampbell McKinnonset Ava Harris+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Villanova first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.