FinalSat, Sep 5, 2026

AwayBIG-EAST

0:3

HomeBIG-12

Arizona St. def. Villanova 3–0

(25-15, 25-13, 25-14)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
NOVA	15	13	14	0
AZ ST	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

AZ ST above 50 · NOVA below

Biggest swing: 0.6% to Villanova — set 1, NOVA 6-2 AZ ST. Attack error by Aniya Clinton. AZ ST win probability 97% → 96%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

NOVA 1.8%98.2% AZ ST

Villanova wins

3-0

0.2%

3-1

0.5%

3-2

1.2%

Arizona St. wins

3-0

68.1%

3-1

24.6%

3-2

5.5%

NOVA break %: 32.2% vs this opp
AZ ST break %: 48.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Aniya ClintonAttack error+0.6%
Attack error by Aniya Clinton
Set 1 · NOVA 6-2 AZ ST · NOVA 3% → 4%
02
Una VajagicKill+0.5%
Kill by Una Vajagic
Set 1 · NOVA 7-5 AZ ST · AZ ST 96% → 97%
03
Cat YoungKill+0.5%
Kill by Cat Young (set by Elle Mottola)
Set 1 · NOVA 4-1 AZ ST · NOVA 3% → 3%
04
Campbell McKinnonAttack error+0.5%
Campbell McKinnon stuffed by Una Vajagic & Zoey Burgess
Set 1 · NOVA 7-6 AZ ST · AZ ST 97% → 97%
05
Cat YoungKill+0.5%
Kill by Cat Young (set by Alyssa Nelson)
Set 1 · NOVA 7-3 AZ ST · NOVA 4% → 4%
06
Annika VeurinkKill+0.4%
Kill by Annika Veurink (set by Alyssa Nelson)
Set 1 · NOVA 3-1 AZ ST · NOVA 2% → 3%
07
Una VajagicKill+0.4%
Kill by Una Vajagic (set by Faith Frame)
Set 1 · NOVA 7-7 AZ ST · AZ ST 97% → 98%
08
Reagan McGivernKill+0.4%
Kill by Reagan McGivern (set by Alyssa Nelson)
Set 1 · NOVA 5-2 AZ ST · NOVA 3% → 3%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Villanovaaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
0Campbell McKinnonMB	3	9	4	18	.278	0	1	2	0	0	0	9
6Chloe KellyOH	3	7	11	27	-.148	0	2	4	1	1	0.5	7.5
44Reagan McGivernMB	3	6	5	14	.071	0	0	2	0	0	0	6
25Annika VeurinkMB	3	3	2	8	.125	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	3.5
9Cat YoungOH	3	3	6	18	-.167	0	2	5	0	0	0	3
7Alyssa NelsonS	3	0	0	0	–	15	0	5	0	0	0	0
13Lola Buck-TaylorL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	5	0	0	0	0
8Marikate RitterbuschL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	2	0	0	0	0
21Mina DiggsL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
24Selah O'ConnorS	3	0	0	0	–	12	2	4	0	0	0	0
14Loren WinnOPP	2	1	3	8	-.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
4Taylor LewisOH	1	2	1	6	.167	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
11Michelle EburuohMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		31	32	99	-.010	28	7	30	2	2	1	42

Arizona St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
10Noemie GloverOPP	3	9	4	24	.208	0	0	0	2	1	3	2.5	11.5
1Una VajagicOH	3	7	1	18	.333	4	0	0	3	0	4	2	9
5Aniya ClintonOH	3	4	1	10	.300	1	0	0	2	2	1	2.5	6.5
8Elle MottolaS	3	3	0	4	.750	13	0	0	7	0	1	0.5	3.5
7Zoey BurgessMB	2	2	0	2	1.000	0	0	0	1	1	4	3	5
25Ella LomigoraMB	2	2	0	2	1.000	0	0	0	0	1	3	2.5	4.5
4Ella LewisOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
15Faith FrameL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	0	10	0	0	0	0
11Isabella CostantiniS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	2	1	0	0	0	0
13Piper RamaL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	2	4	0	0	0	0
19Tosia SerafinowskaMB	2	3	0	5	.600	1	1	0	1	0	2	1	5
21Paige LehmanL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
43Kiylah PresleyOH	1	1	0	3	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
2Ella HopeMB	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		32	6	69	.377	26	2	5	31	5	18	14	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 3 NOVA · AZ ST 8

Set 1

15-25

Longest run 3 NOVAAZ ST 8

Set 2

13-25

Longest run 2 NOVAAZ ST 6

Set 3

14-25

Longest run 2 NOVAAZ ST 6

Bars above the line = Arizona St. leads, below = Villanova leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Villanova

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	43%6/14	17%1/6
2	60%6/10	45%5/11
3	43%6/14	25%2/8
4	40%6/15	0%0/6
5	75%6/8	14%1/7
6	25%3/12	0%0/6
All	45%33/73	20%9/44

Arizona St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	67%6/9	43%3/7
2	67%6/9	65%11/17
3	75%6/8	50%6/12
4	100%6/6	33%3/9
5	86%6/7	60%9/15
6	100%5/5	62%8/13
All	80%35/44	55%40/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

117 rallies

Rally log

#	NOVA-AZ ST	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	NOVA	NOVA	Attack err	Noemie Glover	blk Chloe Kelly, Annika Veurink	+0.3
2	1-1	NOVA	AZ ST	Attack err	Chloe Kelly		+0.2
3	2-1	AZ ST	NOVA×3	Kill	Annika Veurink	set Alyssa Nelson	+0.2
4	3-1	NOVA	NOVA×3	Kill	Annika Veurink	set Alyssa Nelson	+0.4
5	4-1	NOVA	NOVA×3	Kill	Cat Young	set Elle Mottola	+0.5
6	4-2	NOVA	AZ ST	Kill	Noemie Glover	set Elle Mottola	+0.3
7	5-2	AZ ST	NOVA	Kill	Reagan McGivern	set Alyssa Nelson	+0.4
8	6-2	NOVA	NOVA	Attack err	Aniya Clinton		+0.6
9	6-3	NOVA	AZ ST	Attack err	Cat Young		+0.3
10	7-3	AZ ST	NOVA	Kill	Cat Young	set Alyssa Nelson	+0.5
11	7-4	NOVA	AZ ST×8	Kill	Aniya Clinton	set Faith Frame	+0.3
12	7-5	AZ ST	AZ ST×8	Kill	Una Vajagic		+0.5
13	7-6	AZ ST	AZ ST×8	Attack err	Campbell McKinnon	blk Una Vajagic, Zoey Burgess	+0.5
14	7-7	AZ ST	AZ ST×8	Kill	Una Vajagic	set Faith Frame	+0.4
15	7-8	AZ ST	AZ ST×8	Kill	Una Vajagic	set Piper Rama	+0.4
16	7-9	AZ ST	AZ ST×8	Attack err	Campbell McKinnon		+0.3
17	7-10	AZ ST	AZ ST×8	Kill	Una Vajagic	set Elle Mottola	+0.2
18	7-11	AZ ST	AZ ST×8	Attack err	Campbell McKinnon		+0.2
19	8-11	AZ ST	NOVA	Kill	Campbell McKinnon	set Selah O'Connor	+0.1
20	8-12	NOVA	AZ ST	Serve err	NOVA server		+0.1
21	9-12	AZ ST	NOVA	Kill	Chloe Kelly	set Selah O'Connor	+0.1
22	9-13	NOVA	AZ ST	Kill	Ella Lomigora	set Elle Mottola	+0.1
23	10-13	AZ ST	NOVA	Kill	Chloe Kelly	set Selah O'Connor	+0.1
24	10-14	NOVA	AZ ST×4	Kill	Noemie Glover	set Elle Mottola	+0.1
25	10-15	AZ ST	AZ ST×4	Attack err	Reagan McGivern	blk Aniya Clinton	+0.1
26	10-16	AZ ST	AZ ST×4	Attack err	Chloe Kelly	blk Noemie Glover, Ella Lomigora	+0.1
27	10-17	AZ ST	AZ ST×4	Attack err	Chloe Kelly		+0.0
28	11-17	AZ ST	NOVA	Kill	Reagan McGivern	set Alyssa Nelson	+0.0
29	11-18	NOVA	AZ ST	Serve err	NOVA server		+0.0
30	11-19	AZ ST	AZ ST	Attack err	Reagan McGivern	blk Aniya Clinton, Zoey Burgess	+0.0
31	12-19	AZ ST	NOVA	Kill	Cat Young	set Alyssa Nelson	+0.0
32	12-20	NOVA	AZ ST	Kill	Noemie Glover	set Una Vajagic	+0.0
33	13-20	AZ ST	NOVA	Serve err	AZ ST server		+0.0
34	13-21	NOVA	AZ ST	Serve err	NOVA server		+0.0
35	13-22	AZ ST	AZ ST	Kill	Noemie Glover	set Elle Mottola	+0.0
36	14-22	AZ ST	NOVA	Serve err	AZ ST server		+0.0
37	14-23	NOVA	AZ ST	Attack err	Chloe Kelly	blk Zoey Burgess, Elle Mottola	+0.0
38	15-23	AZ ST	NOVA	Kill	Loren Winn	set Selah O'Connor	+0.0
39	15-24	NOVA	AZ ST	Serve err	NOVA server		+0.0
40	15-25	AZ ST	AZ ST	Attack err	Loren Winn		+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	AZ ST	NOVA	Kill	Reagan McGivern	set Alyssa Nelson	+0.1
2	2-0	NOVA	NOVA	Kill	Chloe Kelly	set Alyssa Nelson	+0.2
3	2-1	NOVA	AZ ST	Kill	Tosia Serafinowska	set Lola Buck-Taylor	+0.1
4	2-2	AZ ST	AZ ST	Attack err	Chloe Kelly		+0.2
5	3-2	AZ ST	NOVA	Attack err	Noemie Glover		+0.2
6	3-3	NOVA	AZ ST	Attack err	Chloe Kelly	blk Noemie Glover, Zoey Burgess	+0.1
7	4-3	AZ ST	NOVA	Kill	Chloe Kelly	set Marikate Ritterbusch	+0.2
8	4-4	NOVA	AZ ST	Kill	Zoey Burgess	set Elle Mottola	+0.1
9	5-4	AZ ST	NOVA	Attack err	Una Vajagic		+0.2
10	5-5	NOVA	AZ ST	Kill	Noemie Glover	set Una Vajagic	+0.1
11	6-5	AZ ST	NOVA	Kill	Campbell McKinnon	set Selah O'Connor	+0.2
12	6-6	NOVA	AZ ST×5	Kill	Una Vajagic	set Elle Mottola	+0.2
13	6-7	AZ ST	AZ ST×5	Attack err	Loren Winn	blk Una Vajagic, Tosia Serafinowska	+0.2
14	6-8	AZ ST	AZ ST×5	Attack err	Cat Young	blk Noemie Glover	+0.2
15	6-9	AZ ST	AZ ST×5	Attack err	Loren Winn	blk Una Vajagic, Tosia Serafinowska	+0.1
16	6-10	AZ ST	AZ ST×5	Kill	Una Vajagic	set Tosia Serafinowska	+0.1
17	7-10	AZ ST	NOVA	Kill	Annika Veurink	set Selah O'Connor	+0.1
18	7-11	NOVA	AZ ST	Kill	Una Vajagic	set Elle Mottola	+0.1
19	8-11	AZ ST	NOVA	Kill	Reagan McGivern	set Alyssa Nelson	+0.1
20	9-11	NOVA	NOVA	Kill	Reagan McGivern		+0.1
21	9-12	NOVA	AZ ST×3	Serve err	NOVA server		+0.1
22	9-13	AZ ST	AZ ST×3	Attack err	Chloe Kelly		+0.1
23	9-14	AZ ST	AZ ST×3	Ace	AZ ST server	aced Chloe Kelly	+0.1
24	10-14	AZ ST	NOVA	Serve err	AZ ST server		+0.0
25	10-15	NOVA	AZ ST×6	Kill	Zoey Burgess	set Elle Mottola	+0.0
26	10-16	AZ ST	AZ ST×6	Bad set	Marikate Ritterbusch		+0.0
27	10-17	AZ ST	AZ ST×6	Kill	Aniya Clinton		+0.0
28	10-18	AZ ST	AZ ST×6	Attack err	Campbell McKinnon	blk Zoey Burgess	+0.0
29	10-19	AZ ST	AZ ST×6	Attack err	Reagan McGivern	blk Aniya Clinton	+0.0
30	10-20	AZ ST	AZ ST×6	Attack err	Reagan McGivern		+0.0
31	11-20	AZ ST	NOVA	Serve err	AZ ST server		+0.0
32	11-21	NOVA	AZ ST	Kill	Noemie Glover	set Elle Mottola	+0.0
33	12-21	AZ ST	NOVA	Kill	Campbell McKinnon	set Selah O'Connor	+0.0
34	12-22	NOVA	AZ ST	Serve err	NOVA server		+0.0
35	13-22	AZ ST	NOVA	Kill	Campbell McKinnon	set Selah O'Connor	+0.0
36	13-23	NOVA	AZ ST×3	Kill	Elle Mottola	set Piper Rama	+0.0
37	13-24	AZ ST	AZ ST×3	Attack err	Annika Veurink		+0.0
38	13-25	AZ ST	AZ ST×3	Kill	Tosia Serafinowska		+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	NOVA	AZ ST	Kill	Noemie Glover	set Elle Mottola	+0.0
2	1-1	AZ ST	NOVA	Kill	Reagan McGivern	set Alyssa Nelson	+0.1
3	1-2	NOVA	AZ ST	Attack err	Chloe Kelly		+0.0
4	2-2	AZ ST	NOVA	Kill	Chloe Kelly	set Alyssa Nelson	+0.1
5	3-2	NOVA	NOVA	Attack err	Noemie Glover		+0.1
6	3-3	NOVA	AZ ST	Kill	Aniya Clinton	set Elle Mottola	+0.1
7	4-3	AZ ST	NOVA	Kill	Campbell McKinnon	set Alyssa Nelson	+0.1
8	4-4	NOVA	AZ ST	Attack err	Cat Young		+0.1
9	4-5	AZ ST	AZ ST	Kill	Elle Mottola	set Faith Frame	+0.1
10	5-5	AZ ST	NOVA	Serve err	AZ ST server		+0.1
11	5-6	NOVA	AZ ST×3	Kill	Tosia Serafinowska	set Elle Mottola	+0.1
12	5-7	AZ ST	AZ ST×3	Kill	Noemie Glover	set Una Vajagic	+0.1
13	5-8	AZ ST	AZ ST×3	Ace	AZ ST server	aced Team	+0.1
14	6-8	AZ ST	NOVA	Kill	Taylor Lewis	set Selah O'Connor	+0.0
15	6-9	NOVA	AZ ST×3	Kill	Elle Mottola	set Una Vajagic	+0.0
16	6-10	AZ ST	AZ ST×3	Attack err	Cat Young		+0.0
17	6-11	AZ ST	AZ ST×3	Attack err	Taylor Lewis	blk Una Vajagic, Ella Lomigora	+0.0
18	7-11	AZ ST	NOVA	Kill	Taylor Lewis	set Selah O'Connor	+0.0
19	7-12	NOVA	AZ ST×6	Attack err	Cat Young		+0.0
20	7-13	AZ ST	AZ ST×6	Kill	Aniya Clinton		+0.0
21	7-14	AZ ST	AZ ST×6	Attack err	Cat Young	blk Ella Lomigora, Noemie Glover	+0.0
22	7-15	AZ ST	AZ ST×6	Attack err	Annika Veurink		+0.0
23	7-16	AZ ST	AZ ST×6	Attack err	Reagan McGivern	blk Ella Lomigora	+0.0
24	7-17	AZ ST	AZ ST×6	Kill	Noemie Glover	set Aniya Clinton	+0.0
25	8-17	AZ ST	NOVA	Attack err	Noemie Glover		+0.0
26	9-17	NOVA	NOVA	Kill	Chloe Kelly	set Alyssa Nelson	+0.0
27	9-18	NOVA	AZ ST	Attack err	Chloe Kelly		+0.0
28	10-18	AZ ST	NOVA	Kill	Chloe Kelly	set Alyssa Nelson	+0.0
29	10-19	NOVA	AZ ST×4	Kill	Ella Hope	set Elle Mottola	+0.0
30	10-20	AZ ST	AZ ST×4	Kill	Kiylah Presley	set Isabella Costantini	+0.0
31	10-21	AZ ST	AZ ST×4	Attack err	Chloe Kelly		+0.0
32	10-22	AZ ST	AZ ST×4	Attack err	Chloe Kelly		+0.0
33	11-22	AZ ST	NOVA	Kill	Campbell McKinnon	set Alyssa Nelson	+0.0
34	11-23	NOVA	AZ ST	Serve err	NOVA server		+0.0
35	12-23	AZ ST	NOVA	Kill	Campbell McKinnon	set Selah O'Connor	+0.0
36	13-23	NOVA	NOVA	Kill	Campbell McKinnon	set Selah O'Connor	+0.0
37	13-24	NOVA	AZ ST	Bad set	Chloe Kelly		+0.0
38	14-24	AZ ST	NOVA	Kill	Campbell McKinnon	set Selah O'Connor	+0.0
39	14-25	NOVA	AZ ST	Kill	Ella Lomigora	set Isabella Costantini	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Villanova first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.