FinalThu, Sep 10, 2026

AwayBIG-EAST

3:0

HomePATRIOT

Villanova def. American 3–0

(25-23, 25-23, 28-26)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
NOVA	25	25	28	3
AMER	23	23	26	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

AMER above 50 · NOVA below

Biggest swing: 10.5% to Villanova — set 2, NOVA 25-23 AMER. Kill by Taylor Lewis (set by Alyssa Nelson). AMER win probability 24% → 14%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

NOVA 46.9%53.1% AMER

Villanova wins

3-0

11.2%

3-1

17.4%

3-2

18.2%

American wins

3-0

13.8%

3-1

20.1%

3-2

19.2%

NOVA break %: 42.9% vs this opp
AMER break %: 43.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Taylor LewisKill+10.5%
Kill by Taylor Lewis (set by Alyssa Nelson)
Set 2 · NOVA 25-23 AMER · NOVA 76% → 86%
02
Abby HarrellKill+10.1%
Kill by Abby Harrell (set by Ava Harris)
Set 1 · NOVA 25-23 AMER · NOVA 56% → 66%
03
Campbell McKinnonKill+7.9%
Kill by Campbell McKinnon (set by Alyssa Nelson)
Set 2 · NOVA 24-23 AMER · NOVA 68% → 76%
04
Taylor LewisKill+7.6%
Kill by Taylor Lewis (set by Alyssa Nelson)
Set 1 · NOVA 24-23 AMER · NOVA 48% → 56%
05
Abby HarrellKill+7.3%
Kill by Abby Harrell (set by Ava Harris)
Set 3 · NOVA 28-26 AMER · NOVA 93% → 100%
06
Reagan McGivernKill+7.2%
Kill by Reagan McGivern
Set 3 · NOVA 26-25 AMER · NOVA 85% → 93%
07
Taylor LewisKill+7.1%
Kill by Taylor Lewis (set by Alyssa Nelson)
Set 3 · NOVA 24-24 AMER · NOVA 78% → 85%
08
Cat YoungAttack error+6.6%
Attack error by Cat Young
Set 2 · NOVA 22-22 AMER · AMER 26% → 32%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Villanovaaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
10Abby HarrellOH	3	12	1	29	.379	0	0	3	2	3	0	2	1	13
4Taylor LewisOH	3	13	2	24	.458	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13
0Campbell McKinnonMB	3	11	5	23	.261	0	0	1	2	0	1	2	2	13
9Cat YoungOH	3	3	6	23	-.130	1	1	1	10	0	0	3	1.5	5.5
44Reagan McGivernMB	3	4	1	15	.200	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	1.5	5.5
7Alyssa NelsonS	3	0	0	2	.000	26	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	0
6Chloe KellyOH	3	5	2	21	.143	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	5
2Ava HarrisS	3	0	0	0	–	14	1	0	9	0	0	0	0	1
8Marikate RitterbuschL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0
21Mina DiggsL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	13	0	0	0	0	0
11Michelle EburuohMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		48	17	137	.226	44	2	5	49	3	1	10	6	78

Americanhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
14Elise SterlingMB	3	11	4	24	.292	0	0	2	1	0	2	4	4	15
17Salme HollasOH	3	9	4	31	.161	0	1	0	14	2	0	3	1.5	11.5
23Carly SciborskiOPP	3	9	3	20	.300	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	9.5
20Prinzez ZeckMB	3	6	2	18	.222	1	0	0	1	0	2	2	3	9
5Deniz DakakS	3	1	2	9	-.111	39	2	0	3	0	0	2	1	4
10Alex IoannouL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	0	0
15Sam McMillanOH	3	7	6	28	.036	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	7
19Olivia MillerDS	3	1	0	3	.333	1	0	0	6	0	0	0	0	1
3Bella MarreroL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	0	0	1	17	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		44	21	134	.172	41	3	4	49	2	4	12	10	72

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 NOVA · AMER 5

Set 1

25-23

Longest run 3 NOVAAMER 5

Set 2

25-23

Longest run 5 NOVAAMER 4

Set 3

28-26

Longest run 4 NOVAAMER 4

Bars above the line = American leads, below = Villanova leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Villanova

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	64%9/14	36%4/11
2	56%9/16	47%8/17
3	89%8/9	33%4/12
4	55%6/11	67%12/18
5	46%6/13	45%5/11
6	55%6/11	14%1/7
All	59%44/74	45%34/76

American

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	60%9/15	33%4/12
2	64%9/14	40%6/15
3	40%6/15	31%4/13
4	38%6/16	40%4/10
5	86%6/7	50%6/12
6	67%6/9	50%6/12
All	55%42/76	41%30/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

150 rallies

Rally log

#	NOVA-AMER	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	AMER	NOVA	Kill	Campbell McKinnon	set Alyssa Nelson	+1.9
2	2-0	NOVA	NOVA	Attack err	Prinzez Zeck	blk Campbell McKinnon, Abby Harrell	+2.5
3	2-1	NOVA	AMER	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Deniz Dakak	+1.8
4	3-1	AMER	NOVA	Kill	Abby Harrell	set Alyssa Nelson	+1.9
5	3-2	NOVA	AMER	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Deniz Dakak	+1.8
6	4-2	AMER	NOVA×3	Kill	Abby Harrell	set Alyssa Nelson	+2.0
7	5-2	NOVA	NOVA×3	Attack err	Salme Hollas		+2.5
8	6-2	NOVA	NOVA×3	Kill	Abby Harrell	set Alex Ioannou	+2.4
9	6-3	NOVA	AMER	Attack err	Cat Young	blk Elise Sterling, Salme Hollas	+1.6
10	7-3	AMER	NOVA×3	Attack err	Sam McMillan	blk Abby Harrell, Reagan McGivern	+1.8
11	8-3	NOVA	NOVA×3	Attack err	Sam McMillan		+2.2
12	9-3	NOVA	NOVA×3	Attack err	Elise Sterling		+1.9
13	9-4	NOVA	AMER×3	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Deniz Dakak	+1.2
14	9-5	AMER	AMER×3	Attack err	Sam McMillan		+1.9
15	9-6	AMER	AMER×3	Kill	Sam McMillan	set Ava Harris	+2.2
16	10-6	AMER	NOVA	Bad set	Sam McMillan		+1.9
17	10-7	NOVA	AMER×5	Kill	Sam McMillan	set Deniz Dakak	+1.7
18	10-8	AMER	AMER×5	Attack err	Cat Young	blk Prinzez Zeck, Carly Sciborski	+2.6
19	10-9	AMER	AMER×5	Kill	Sam McMillan	set Prinzez Zeck	+2.9
20	10-10	AMER	AMER×5	Bad set	Ava Harris		+3.1
21	10-11	AMER	AMER×5	Ace	AMER server	aced Abby Harrell	+3.2
22	11-11	AMER	NOVA×3	Attack err	Carly Sciborski		+2.4
23	12-11	NOVA	NOVA×3	Attack err	Sam McMillan		+3.3
24	13-11	NOVA	NOVA×3	Kill	Cat Young	set Alyssa Nelson	+3.3
25	13-12	NOVA	AMER	Attack err	Campbell McKinnon		+2.4
26	14-12	AMER	NOVA×3	Attack err	Salme Hollas		+2.6
27	15-12	NOVA	NOVA×3	Attack err	Salme Hollas		+3.3
28	16-12	NOVA	NOVA×3	Attack err	Salme Hollas		+2.9
29	16-13	NOVA	AMER	Kill	Prinzez Zeck	set Deniz Dakak	+1.8
30	17-13	AMER	NOVA	Kill	Abby Harrell	set Alyssa Nelson	+2.2
31	17-14	NOVA	AMER	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Deniz Dakak	+1.8
32	18-14	AMER	NOVA	Kill	Abby Harrell	set Alyssa Nelson	+2.3
33	18-15	NOVA	AMER	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Deniz Dakak	+1.7
34	18-16	AMER	AMER	Ace	AMER server	aced Abby Harrell	+3.0
35	19-16	AMER	NOVA	Kill	Abby Harrell	set Ava Harris	+2.9
36	19-17	NOVA	AMER	Serve err	NOVA server		+2.3
37	19-18	AMER	AMER	Kill	Sam McMillan	set Deniz Dakak	+4.0
38	20-18	AMER	NOVA	Serve err	AMER server		+3.7
39	20-19	NOVA	AMER	Attack err	Chloe Kelly		+3.2
40	21-19	AMER	NOVA	Attack err	Sam McMillan		+4.0
41	21-20	NOVA	AMER	Attack err	Campbell McKinnon	blk Prinzez Zeck	+3.3
42	21-21	AMER	AMER	Kill	Prinzez Zeck	set Deniz Dakak	+5.7
43	22-21	AMER	NOVA	Kill	Campbell McKinnon	set Alyssa Nelson	+5.1
44	22-22	NOVA	AMER	Serve err	NOVA server		+4.9
45	23-22	AMER	NOVA	Kill	Campbell McKinnon	set Alyssa Nelson	+6.0
46	23-23	NOVA	AMER	Kill	Carly Sciborski	set Deniz Dakak	+5.7
47	24-23	AMER	NOVA	Kill	Taylor Lewis	set Alyssa Nelson	+7.6
48	25-23	NOVA	NOVA	Kill	Abby Harrell	set Ava Harris	+10.1
Set 2
1	0-1	NOVA	AMER	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Deniz Dakak	+1.9
2	1-1	AMER	NOVA	Kill	Campbell McKinnon	set Alyssa Nelson	+1.9
3	2-1	NOVA	NOVA	Ace	NOVA server	aced Salme Hollas	+2.6
4	2-2	NOVA	AMER×4	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Deniz Dakak	+2.0
5	2-3	AMER	AMER×4	Attack err	Taylor Lewis	blk Salme Hollas, Elise Sterling	+2.6
6	2-4	AMER	AMER×4	Kill	Deniz Dakak	set Olivia Miller	+2.6
7	2-5	AMER	AMER×4	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Deniz Dakak	+2.5
8	3-5	AMER	NOVA	Kill	Campbell McKinnon	set Alyssa Nelson	+1.8
9	4-5	NOVA	NOVA	Attack err	Deniz Dakak		+2.6
10	4-6	NOVA	AMER	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Deniz Dakak	+2.1
11	5-6	AMER	NOVA×5	Kill	Taylor Lewis	set Alyssa Nelson	+2.0
12	6-6	NOVA	NOVA×5	Attack err	Elise Sterling		+2.8
13	7-6	NOVA	NOVA×5	Kill	Abby Harrell	set Ava Harris	+2.9
14	8-6	NOVA	NOVA×5	Attack err	Elise Sterling		+2.9
15	9-6	NOVA	NOVA×5	Kill	Chloe Kelly	set Ava Harris	+2.8
16	9-7	NOVA	AMER	Attack err	Cat Young		+2.0
17	10-7	AMER	NOVA	Kill	Chloe Kelly	set Ava Harris	+2.2
18	10-8	NOVA	AMER	Kill	Prinzez Zeck	set Deniz Dakak	+2.0
19	10-9	AMER	AMER	Kill	Prinzez Zeck	set Deniz Dakak	+3.0
20	11-9	AMER	NOVA	Kill	Reagan McGivern	set Ava Harris	+2.4
21	11-10	NOVA	AMER	Kill	Carly Sciborski	set Deniz Dakak	+2.3
22	12-10	AMER	NOVA	Serve err	AMER server		+2.5
23	12-11	NOVA	AMER	Kill	Carly Sciborski	set Deniz Dakak	+2.4
24	12-12	AMER	AMER	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Deniz Dakak	+3.4
25	13-12	AMER	NOVA×3	Kill	Campbell McKinnon	set Alyssa Nelson	+2.7
26	14-12	NOVA	NOVA×3	Kill	Abby Harrell	set Alyssa Nelson	+3.6
27	15-12	NOVA	NOVA×3	Kill	Taylor Lewis		+3.4
28	15-13	NOVA	AMER	Kill	Carly Sciborski	set Deniz Dakak	+2.2
29	16-13	AMER	NOVA	Kill	Abby Harrell	set Cat Young	+2.7
30	16-14	NOVA	AMER	Attack err	Abby Harrell	blk Elise Sterling, Deniz Dakak	+2.3
31	17-14	AMER	NOVA	Kill	Taylor Lewis	set Alyssa Nelson	+2.8
32	18-14	NOVA	NOVA	Ace	NOVA server	aced Salme Hollas	+3.1
33	18-15	NOVA	AMER	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Deniz Dakak	+1.8
34	18-16	AMER	AMER	Attack err	Chloe Kelly	blk Prinzez Zeck, Deniz Dakak	+3.1
35	19-16	AMER	NOVA	Kill	Chloe Kelly	set Ava Harris	+3.0
36	19-17	NOVA	AMER	Serve err	NOVA server		+2.4
37	19-18	AMER	AMER	Ace	AMER server	aced Abby Harrell	+4.1
38	20-18	AMER	NOVA	Attack err	Carly Sciborski	blk Cat Young, Reagan McGivern	+3.8
39	20-19	NOVA	AMER	Kill	Prinzez Zeck	set Deniz Dakak	+3.3
40	20-20	AMER	AMER	Attack err	Cat Young		+5.3
41	21-20	AMER	NOVA	Attack err	Carly Sciborski	blk Campbell McKinnon, Cat Young	+4.6
42	22-20	NOVA	NOVA	Attack err	Salme Hollas		+5.9
43	22-21	NOVA	AMER	Kill	Carly Sciborski	set Deniz Dakak	+3.6
44	22-22	AMER	AMER	Attack err	Cat Young		+6.6
45	23-22	AMER	NOVA	Kill	Campbell McKinnon	set Alyssa Nelson	+6.2
46	23-23	NOVA	AMER	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Deniz Dakak	+5.9
47	24-23	AMER	NOVA	Kill	Campbell McKinnon	set Alyssa Nelson	+7.9
48	25-23	NOVA	NOVA	Kill	Taylor Lewis	set Alyssa Nelson	+10.5
Set 3
1	0-1	AMER	AMER	Attack err	Campbell McKinnon		+1.8
2	1-1	AMER	NOVA	Kill	Campbell McKinnon	set Marikate Ritterbusch	+1.3
3	1-2	NOVA	AMER×3	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Deniz Dakak	+1.4
4	1-3	AMER	AMER×3	Attack err	Taylor Lewis	blk Elise Sterling	+1.8
5	1-4	AMER	AMER×3	Attack err	Campbell McKinnon	blk Elise Sterling	+1.7
6	2-4	AMER	NOVA	Kill	Campbell McKinnon	set Alyssa Nelson	+1.2
7	2-5	NOVA	AMER	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Bella Marrero	+1.3
8	3-5	AMER	NOVA	Kill	Taylor Lewis	set Bella Marrero	+1.2
9	3-6	NOVA	AMER×4	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Chloe Kelly	+1.3
10	3-7	AMER	AMER×4	Attack err	Reagan McGivern	blk Elise Sterling	+1.6
11	3-8	AMER	AMER×4	Bad set	Ava Harris		+1.5
12	3-9	AMER	AMER×4	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Deniz Dakak	+1.2
13	4-9	AMER	NOVA×4	Kill	Chloe Kelly	set Ava Harris	+0.8
14	5-9	NOVA	NOVA×4	Attack err	Sam McMillan		+1.3
15	6-9	NOVA	NOVA×4	Attack err	Elise Sterling	blk Cat Young, Reagan McGivern	+1.5
16	7-9	NOVA	NOVA×4	Attack err	Deniz Dakak		+1.8
17	7-10	NOVA	AMER	Kill	Olivia Miller	set Deniz Dakak	+1.5
18	8-10	AMER	NOVA	Kill	Cat Young	set Ava Harris	+1.4
19	8-11	NOVA	AMER	Kill	Sam McMillan	set Deniz Dakak	+1.5
20	9-11	AMER	NOVA	Kill	Campbell McKinnon	set Ava Harris	+1.4
21	9-12	NOVA	AMER	Kill	Sam McMillan	set Deniz Dakak	+1.6
22	9-13	AMER	AMER	Kill	Carly Sciborski	set Deniz Dakak	+1.8
23	10-13	AMER	NOVA	Attack err	Prinzez Zeck	blk Campbell McKinnon	+1.2
24	10-14	NOVA	AMER×3	Kill	Prinzez Zeck	set Deniz Dakak	+1.4
25	10-15	AMER	AMER×3	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Deniz Dakak	+1.6
26	10-16	AMER	AMER×3	Kill	Carly Sciborski	set Deniz Dakak	+1.2
27	11-16	AMER	NOVA	Serve err	AMER server		+0.7
28	12-16	NOVA	NOVA	Bad set	Alex Ioannou		+1.2
29	12-17	NOVA	AMER	Kill	Carly Sciborski	set Deniz Dakak	+1.2
30	12-18	AMER	AMER	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Deniz Dakak	+1.2
31	13-18	AMER	NOVA×4	Kill	Taylor Lewis	set Alyssa Nelson	+0.6
32	14-18	NOVA	NOVA×4	Kill	Chloe Kelly	set Ava Harris	+1.1
33	15-18	NOVA	NOVA×4	Kill	Abby Harrell	set Mina Diggs	+1.6
34	16-18	NOVA	NOVA×4	Kill	Reagan McGivern	set Ava Harris	+2.1
35	16-19	NOVA	AMER	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Deniz Dakak	+2.0
36	17-19	AMER	NOVA	Kill	Reagan McGivern	set Ava Harris	+1.6
37	17-20	NOVA	AMER×3	Serve err	NOVA server		+2.1
38	17-21	AMER	AMER×3	Kill	Sam McMillan	set Deniz Dakak	+2.1
39	17-22	AMER	AMER×3	Attack err	Cat Young		+1.4
40	18-22	AMER	NOVA	Serve err	AMER server		+0.5
41	19-22	NOVA	NOVA	Attack err	Sam McMillan		+1.2
42	19-23	NOVA	AMER	Attack err	Campbell McKinnon	blk Prinzez Zeck	+1.5
43	20-23	AMER	NOVA	Kill	Cat Young	set Marikate Ritterbusch	+0.7
44	21-23	NOVA	NOVA	Kill	Taylor Lewis	set Alyssa Nelson	+1.8
45	21-24	NOVA	AMER	Kill	Carly Sciborski	set Deniz Dakak	+2.5
46	22-24	AMER	NOVA×3	Kill	Taylor Lewis	set Alyssa Nelson	+1.0
47	23-24	NOVA	NOVA×3	Kill	Taylor Lewis	set Alyssa Nelson	+3.0
48	24-24	NOVA	NOVA×3	Kill	Taylor Lewis	set Alyssa Nelson	+7.1
49	24-25	NOVA	AMER	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Deniz Dakak	+5.4
50	25-25	AMER	NOVA	Kill	Taylor Lewis	set Alyssa Nelson	+5.4
51	26-25	NOVA	NOVA	Kill	Reagan McGivern		+7.2
52	26-26	NOVA	AMER	Serve err	NOVA server		+5.5
53	27-26	AMER	NOVA	Kill	Taylor Lewis	set Alyssa Nelson	+5.5
54	28-26	NOVA	NOVA	Kill	Abby Harrell	set Ava Harris	+7.3

Score shown after each rally, Villanova first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.