FinalFri, Sep 11, 2026

AwayBIG-EAST

0:3

HomeBIG-12

Iowa St. def. Villanova 3–0

(26-24, 25-18, 25-23)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
NOVA	24	18	23	0
IOWAST	26	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

IOWAST above 50 · NOVA below

Biggest swing: 9.2% to Villanova — set 1, NOVA 24-24 IOWAST. Alea Goolsby stuffed by Taylor Lewis & Reagan McGivern. IOWAST win probability 75% → 66%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

NOVA 33.7%66.3% IOWAST

Villanova wins

3-0

6.8%

3-1

12.0%

3-2

14.9%

Iowa St. wins

3-0

20.8%

3-1

25.4%

3-2

20.0%

NOVA break %: 37.1% vs this opp
IOWAST break %: 40.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Alea GoolsbyAttack error+9.2%
Alea Goolsby stuffed by Taylor Lewis & Reagan McGivern
Set 1 · NOVA 24-24 IOWAST · NOVA 25% → 34%
02
Taylor LewisAttack error+8.7%
Taylor Lewis stuffed by Alea Goolsby & Macie Lupkes
Set 1 · NOVA 24-26 IOWAST · IOWAST 72% → 80%
03
NOVA serverService error+5.9%
Villanova service error
Set 1 · NOVA 24-25 IOWAST · IOWAST 66% → 72%
04
Abby HarrellAttack error+4.4%
Abby Harrell stuffed by Nayeli Ti'a & Macie Lupkes
Set 3 · NOVA 23-25 IOWAST · IOWAST 96% → 100%
05
Mesaiya BettisAttack error+3.6%
Mesaiya Bettis stuffed by Reagan McGivern & Chloe Kelly
Set 3 · NOVA 23-23 IOWAST · NOVA 4% → 7%
06
Nayeli GonzalezAttack error+3.4%
Nayeli Gonzalez stuffed by Abby Harrell & Reagan McGivern
Set 1 · NOVA 23-24 IOWAST · NOVA 22% → 25%
07
IOWAST serverAce+3.0%
Iowa St. ace on Cat Young
Set 1 · NOVA 10-12 IOWAST · IOWAST 68% → 71%
08
Taylor LewisAttack error+3.0%
Taylor Lewis stuffed by Alea Goolsby & Macie Lupkes
Set 3 · NOVA 21-23 IOWAST · IOWAST 95% → 97%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Villanovaaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
0Campbell McKinnonMB	3	9	0	14	.643	0	0	2	1	0	1	2	2	11
4Taylor LewisOH	3	9	5	24	.167	1	0	2	4	0	1	1	1.5	10.5
10Abby HarrellOH	3	8	4	22	.182	0	0	1	2	1	0	1	0.5	8.5
9Cat YoungOH	3	6	2	20	.200	0	0	3	6	3	0	2	1	7
44Reagan McGivernMB	3	5	1	9	.444	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	2	7
7Alyssa NelsonS	3	0	0	0	–	24	1	1	10	0	0	0	0	1
6Chloe KellyOH	3	4	2	10	.200	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	5
8Marikate RitterbuschL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	4	2	0	0	0	0
21Mina DiggsL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	0
24Selah O'ConnorS	2	0	0	0	–	7	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
2Ava HarrisS	1	0	0	0	–	3	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		41	14	99	.273	38	1	12	37	6	2	12	8	65

Iowa St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
30Alea GoolsbyOH	3	9	7	21	.095	0	1	4	8	0	0	3	1.5	11.5
14Nayeli GonzalezOH	3	10	3	23	.304	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	1	11
1Pam McCuneMB	3	8	0	18	.444	0	1	0	0	0	1	1	1.5	10.5
20Nayeli Ti'aOH	3	8	3	21	.238	0	1	2	3	0	0	1	0.5	9.5
8Macie LupkesMB	3	3	0	5	.600	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	3	6
11Ella FlorezS	3	0	0	0	–	20	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0
9Mesaiya BettisOH	3	5	2	11	.273	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
17Ava MartinS	3	0	0	1	.000	17	1	1	4	0	0	0	0	1
10Rachel Van GorpL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	5	1	0	12	1	0	0	0	1
12Abbi BrenizerMB	2	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		43	15	101	.277	42	6	8	36	1	1	14	8	76

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 NOVA · IOWAST 5

Set 1

24-26

Longest run 6 NOVAIOWAST 5

Set 2

18-25

Longest run 2 NOVAIOWAST 3

Set 3

23-25

Longest run 3 NOVAIOWAST 3

Bars above the line = Iowa St. leads, below = Villanova leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Villanova

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	64%9/14	38%5/13
2	69%9/13	36%5/14
3	57%8/14	36%5/14
4	64%7/11	11%1/9
5	55%6/11	22%2/9
6	55%6/11	25%2/8
All	61%45/74	30%20/67

Iowa St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	69%9/13	50%7/14
2	64%9/14	31%4/13
3	64%9/14	36%5/14
4	80%8/10	27%3/11
5	86%6/7	40%4/10
6	67%6/9	50%6/12
All	70%47/67	39%29/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

141 rallies

Rally log

#	NOVA-IOWAST	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	NOVA	IOWAST	Kill	Nayeli Gonzalez	set Ella Florez	+1.5
2	1-1	IOWAST	NOVA	Attack err	Alea Goolsby	blk Cat Young, Campbell McKinnon	+1.6
3	2-1	NOVA	NOVA	Attack err	Alea Goolsby		+2.6
4	2-2	NOVA	IOWAST	Kill	Nayeli Gonzalez	set Ella Florez	+1.6
5	3-2	IOWAST	NOVA	Kill	Taylor Lewis	set Alyssa Nelson	+1.7
6	3-3	NOVA	IOWAST	Kill	Alea Goolsby	set Ella Florez	+1.6
7	4-3	IOWAST	NOVA	Kill	Taylor Lewis	set Alyssa Nelson	+1.7
8	4-4	NOVA	IOWAST	Kill	Nayeli Ti'a	set Ava Martin	+1.7
9	5-4	IOWAST	NOVA	Serve err	IOWAST server		+1.8
10	5-5	NOVA	IOWAST	Kill	Nayeli Ti'a	set Ava Martin	+1.7
11	6-5	IOWAST	NOVA	Kill	Chloe Kelly	set Ava Harris	+1.8
12	6-6	NOVA	IOWAST	Kill	Pam McCune	set Ava Martin	+1.8
13	7-6	IOWAST	NOVA	Kill	Chloe Kelly	set Ava Harris	+1.9
14	7-7	NOVA	IOWAST	Kill	Nayeli Gonzalez	set Ella Florez	+1.8
15	8-7	IOWAST	NOVA	Kill	Cat Young	set Alyssa Nelson	+1.9
16	8-8	NOVA	IOWAST	Kill	Alea Goolsby	set Ella Florez	+1.9
17	8-9	IOWAST	IOWAST	Attack err	Abby Harrell	blk Macie Lupkes, Nayeli Gonzalez	+3.0
18	9-9	IOWAST	NOVA	Kill	Campbell McKinnon	set Alyssa Nelson	+1.9
19	9-10	NOVA	IOWAST	Kill	Alea Goolsby	set Ella Florez	+1.9
20	10-10	IOWAST	NOVA	Kill	Taylor Lewis	set Alyssa Nelson	+2.0
21	10-11	NOVA	IOWAST	Serve err	NOVA server		+2.0
22	10-12	IOWAST	IOWAST	Ace	IOWAST server	aced Cat Young	+3.0
23	11-12	IOWAST	NOVA	Serve err	IOWAST server		+1.8
24	11-13	NOVA	IOWAST×4	Kill	Nayeli Ti'a	set Ava Martin	+1.9
25	11-14	IOWAST	IOWAST×4	Kill	Mesaiya Bettis	set Ava Martin	+2.8
26	11-15	IOWAST	IOWAST×4	Ace	IOWAST server	aced Marikate Ritterbusch	+2.3
27	11-16	IOWAST	IOWAST×4	Kill	Mesaiya Bettis	set Ava Martin	+1.7
28	12-16	IOWAST	NOVA	Kill	Reagan McGivern	set Ava Harris	+0.8
29	13-16	NOVA	NOVA	Kill	Cat Young	set Marikate Ritterbusch	+1.8
30	13-17	NOVA	IOWAST×5	Kill	Mesaiya Bettis	set Ava Martin	+1.5
31	13-18	IOWAST	IOWAST×5	Kill	Pam McCune	set Ella Florez	+1.7
32	13-19	IOWAST	IOWAST×5	Kill	Pam McCune	set Ella Florez	+1.1
33	13-20	IOWAST	IOWAST×5	Attack err	Chloe Kelly		+0.6
34	13-21	IOWAST	IOWAST×5	Bad set	Ava Harris		+0.3
35	14-21	IOWAST	NOVA	Attack err	Alea Goolsby		+0.1
36	15-21	NOVA	NOVA	Kill	Cat Young	set Alyssa Nelson	+0.2
37	15-22	NOVA	IOWAST	Kill	Nayeli Gonzalez	set Rachel Van Gorp	+0.2
38	15-23	IOWAST	IOWAST	Kill	Nayeli Gonzalez	set Ella Florez	+0.1
39	16-23	IOWAST	NOVA×3	Kill	Taylor Lewis	set Alyssa Nelson	+0.0
40	17-23	NOVA	NOVA×3	Kill	Abby Harrell	set Mina Diggs	+0.1
41	18-23	NOVA	NOVA×3	Kill	Campbell McKinnon	set Alyssa Nelson	+0.2
42	18-24	NOVA	IOWAST	Kill	Nayeli Gonzalez	set Ella Florez	+0.2
43	19-24	IOWAST	NOVA×6	Kill	Taylor Lewis	set Alyssa Nelson	+0.0
44	20-24	NOVA	NOVA×6	Kill	Reagan McGivern		+0.2
45	21-24	NOVA	NOVA×6	Kill	Campbell McKinnon	set Alyssa Nelson	+0.5
46	22-24	NOVA	NOVA×6	Kill	Abby Harrell	set Alyssa Nelson	+1.3
47	23-24	NOVA	NOVA×6	Attack err	Nayeli Gonzalez	blk Abby Harrell, Reagan McGivern	+3.4
48	24-24	NOVA	NOVA×6	Attack err	Alea Goolsby	blk Taylor Lewis, Reagan McGivern	+9.2
49	24-25	NOVA	IOWAST	Serve err	NOVA server		+5.9
50	24-26	IOWAST	IOWAST	Attack err	Taylor Lewis	blk Alea Goolsby, Macie Lupkes	+8.7
Set 2
1	0-1	IOWAST	IOWAST	Kill	Nayeli Gonzalez	set Ella Florez	+2.1
2	0-2	IOWAST	IOWAST	Attack err	Cat Young		+2.0
3	1-2	IOWAST	NOVA	Kill	Taylor Lewis	set Alyssa Nelson	+1.2
4	1-3	NOVA	IOWAST×3	Serve err	NOVA server		+1.2
5	1-4	IOWAST	IOWAST×3	Ace	IOWAST server	aced Abby Harrell	+1.8
6	1-5	IOWAST	IOWAST×3	Attack err	Cat Young	blk Pam McCune	+1.6
7	2-5	IOWAST	NOVA	Kill	Taylor Lewis	set Alyssa Nelson	+0.9
8	2-6	NOVA	IOWAST×3	Kill	Nayeli Ti'a	set Ella Florez	+1.0
9	2-7	IOWAST	IOWAST×3	Ace	IOWAST server	aced Cat Young	+1.4
10	2-8	IOWAST	IOWAST×3	Kill	Alea Goolsby	set Ella Florez	+1.1
11	3-8	IOWAST	NOVA	Kill	Abby Harrell	set Alyssa Nelson	+0.6
12	3-9	NOVA	IOWAST	Serve err	NOVA server		+0.7
13	4-9	IOWAST	NOVA	Kill	Reagan McGivern	set Selah O'Connor	+0.6
14	5-9	NOVA	NOVA	Attack err	Alea Goolsby		+1.2
15	5-10	NOVA	IOWAST	Kill	Macie Lupkes	set Ava Martin	+0.9
16	6-10	IOWAST	NOVA	Serve err	IOWAST server		+0.8
17	6-11	NOVA	IOWAST	Serve err	NOVA server		+0.9
18	7-11	IOWAST	NOVA	Kill	Campbell McKinnon	set Selah O'Connor	+0.8
19	8-11	NOVA	NOVA	Ace	NOVA server	aced Rachel Van Gorp	+1.5
20	8-12	NOVA	IOWAST	Attack err	Taylor Lewis		+1.1
21	8-13	IOWAST	IOWAST	Kill	Nayeli Gonzalez	set Rachel Van Gorp	+1.5
22	9-13	IOWAST	NOVA	Attack err	Nayeli Gonzalez	blk Taylor Lewis	+0.7
23	9-14	NOVA	IOWAST	Kill	Nayeli Ti'a	set Ella Florez	+0.9
24	10-14	IOWAST	NOVA	Serve err	IOWAST server		+0.7
25	10-15	NOVA	IOWAST	Serve err	NOVA server		+0.9
26	11-15	IOWAST	NOVA	Kill	Taylor Lewis	set Alyssa Nelson	+0.7
27	11-16	NOVA	IOWAST	Kill	Alea Goolsby	set Ella Florez	+0.9
28	12-16	IOWAST	NOVA	Serve err	IOWAST server		+0.7
29	12-17	NOVA	IOWAST	Kill	Mesaiya Bettis	set Ava Martin	+0.9
30	13-17	IOWAST	NOVA	Serve err	IOWAST server		+0.7
31	13-18	NOVA	IOWAST	Kill	Nayeli Ti'a	set Ava Martin	+0.9
32	13-19	IOWAST	IOWAST	Kill	Nayeli Ti'a	set Rachel Van Gorp	+0.9
33	14-19	IOWAST	NOVA	Attack err	Mesaiya Bettis	blk Campbell McKinnon, Cat Young	+0.3
34	14-20	NOVA	IOWAST	Kill	Pam McCune	set Ava Martin	+0.5
35	15-20	IOWAST	NOVA	Kill	Campbell McKinnon	set Alyssa Nelson	+0.3
36	15-21	NOVA	IOWAST	Kill	Pam McCune	set Ella Florez	+0.5
37	16-21	IOWAST	NOVA	Kill	Abby Harrell	set Alyssa Nelson	+0.2
38	16-22	NOVA	IOWAST	Kill	Alea Goolsby	set Rachel Van Gorp	+0.4
39	16-23	IOWAST	IOWAST	Attack err	Abby Harrell	blk Macie Lupkes, Nayeli Gonzalez	+0.2
40	17-23	IOWAST	NOVA	Kill	Reagan McGivern	set Alyssa Nelson	+0.0
41	17-24	NOVA	IOWAST	Serve err	NOVA server		+0.1
42	18-24	IOWAST	NOVA	Kill	Chloe Kelly	set Selah O'Connor	+0.0
43	18-25	NOVA	IOWAST	Kill	Macie Lupkes	set Ava Martin	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	NOVA	NOVA×3	Kill	Cat Young	set Taylor Lewis	+1.3
2	2-0	NOVA	NOVA×3	Attack err	Nayeli Ti'a		+1.3
3	3-0	NOVA	NOVA×3	Kill	Taylor Lewis	set Alyssa Nelson	+1.3
4	3-1	NOVA	IOWAST	Serve err	NOVA server		+0.8
5	4-1	IOWAST	NOVA	Serve err	IOWAST server		+0.9
6	4-2	NOVA	IOWAST	Attack err	Taylor Lewis	blk Pam McCune, Alea Goolsby	+0.8
7	4-3	IOWAST	IOWAST	Kill	Alea Goolsby	set Ella Florez	+1.3
8	5-3	IOWAST	NOVA	Kill	Abby Harrell	set Alyssa Nelson	+0.9
9	5-4	NOVA	IOWAST	Kill	Alea Goolsby	set Rachel Van Gorp	+0.8
10	6-4	IOWAST	NOVA	Kill	Abby Harrell	set Alyssa Nelson	+0.9
11	6-5	NOVA	IOWAST×3	Serve err	NOVA server		+0.9
12	6-6	IOWAST	IOWAST×3	Ace	IOWAST server	aced Marikate Ritterbusch	+1.4
13	6-7	IOWAST	IOWAST×3	Attack err	Chloe Kelly	blk Macie Lupkes, Mesaiya Bettis	+1.4
14	7-7	IOWAST	NOVA	Serve err	IOWAST server		+0.9
15	7-8	NOVA	IOWAST×3	Kill	Nayeli Ti'a	set Ava Martin	+0.9
16	7-9	IOWAST	IOWAST×3	Attack err	Reagan McGivern		+1.4
17	7-10	IOWAST	IOWAST×3	Kill	Pam McCune	set Ava Martin	+1.3
18	8-10	IOWAST	NOVA	Kill	Cat Young	set Selah O'Connor	+0.7
19	8-11	NOVA	IOWAST	Kill	Pam McCune	set Ava Martin	+0.8
20	9-11	IOWAST	NOVA	Kill	Campbell McKinnon	set Selah O'Connor	+0.7
21	9-12	NOVA	IOWAST	Kill	Nayeli Gonzalez	set Ella Florez	+0.8
22	9-13	IOWAST	IOWAST	Attack err	Taylor Lewis		+1.1
23	10-13	IOWAST	NOVA×3	Kill	Campbell McKinnon	set Alyssa Nelson	+0.6
24	11-13	NOVA	NOVA×3	Attack err	Nayeli Ti'a	blk Campbell McKinnon	+1.2
25	12-13	NOVA	NOVA×3	Attack err	Alea Goolsby		+1.5
26	12-14	NOVA	IOWAST	Serve err	NOVA server		+1.0
27	13-14	IOWAST	NOVA	Kill	Abby Harrell	set Mina Diggs	+1.0
28	13-15	NOVA	IOWAST	Attack err	Abby Harrell		+1.1
29	13-16	IOWAST	IOWAST	Ace	IOWAST server	aced Cat Young	+1.5
30	14-16	IOWAST	NOVA	Attack err	Alea Goolsby		+0.8
31	14-17	NOVA	IOWAST	Kill	Macie Lupkes	set Ava Martin	+1.0
32	15-17	IOWAST	NOVA	Kill	Reagan McGivern	set Selah O'Connor	+0.8
33	16-17	NOVA	NOVA	Attack err	Nayeli Ti'a	blk Reagan McGivern, Chloe Kelly	+1.7
34	16-18	NOVA	IOWAST	Serve err	NOVA server		+1.2
35	17-18	IOWAST	NOVA	Kill	Cat Young	set Selah O'Connor	+1.1
36	18-18	NOVA	NOVA	Kill	Chloe Kelly	set Ava Martin	+2.2
37	18-19	NOVA	IOWAST	Kill	Mesaiya Bettis	set Ava Martin	+1.5
38	19-19	IOWAST	NOVA	Attack err	Nayeli Gonzalez		+1.5
39	19-20	NOVA	IOWAST	Kill	Pam McCune	set Ella Florez	+1.6
40	20-20	IOWAST	NOVA	Kill	Campbell McKinnon	set Alyssa Nelson	+1.7
41	20-21	NOVA	IOWAST	Serve err	NOVA server		+1.8
42	21-21	IOWAST	NOVA	Kill	Campbell McKinnon	set Alyssa Nelson	+1.8
43	21-22	NOVA	IOWAST	Kill	Nayeli Gonzalez	set Ella Florez	+2.1
44	21-23	IOWAST	IOWAST	Attack err	Taylor Lewis	blk Alea Goolsby, Macie Lupkes	+3.0
45	22-23	IOWAST	NOVA	Kill	Abby Harrell	set Alyssa Nelson	+1.3
46	23-23	NOVA	NOVA	Attack err	Mesaiya Bettis	blk Reagan McGivern, Chloe Kelly	+3.6
47	23-24	NOVA	IOWAST	Kill	Alea Goolsby	set Ava Martin	+3.0
48	23-25	IOWAST	IOWAST	Attack err	Abby Harrell	blk Nayeli Ti'a, Macie Lupkes	+4.4

Score shown after each rally, Villanova first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.