Final · 5 setsSat, Sep 26, 2026Watch on XAVIER+

Xavier def. Villanova 3–2

Xavier beat visiting Villanova 3-2 (25-11, 28-30, 21-25, 25-22, 15-11) on Sat, Sep 26, 2026. Margo Kemp and Charlotte Moriarty led Xavier with 15 kills each; Villanova's Campbell McKinnon had a match-high 23.

Data through · final Sep 26

Set12345Sets
NOVA11302522112
XAVIER25282125153

Win probability

Xavier above 50 · Villanova below
S1S2S3S4S510050100+13.2% XAVIERrally 213 · set 5

Biggest swing: 13.2% to Xavier — set 5, NOVA 9-11 XAVIER. Kill by Margo Kemp. XAVIER win probability 66% → 79%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

NOVA 36.7%63.3% XAVIER

Villanova wins

3-0
7.7%
3-1
13.2%
3-2
15.8%

Xavier wins

3-0
19.0%
3-1
24.3%
3-2
20.0%
NOVA break %
40.6% vs this opp
XAVIER break %
43.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Margo KempKill+13.2%

    Kill by Margo Kemp

    Set 5 · NOVA 9-11 XAVIER · XAVIER 66% → 79%

  2. 02
    Ava TildenKill+11.9%

    Kill by Ava Tilden (set by Macy Hatkevich)

    Set 5 · NOVA 7-8 XAVIER · XAVIER 53% → 65%

  3. 03

    Kill by Catherine Flaharty (set by Kelsey Niesen)

    Set 5 · NOVA 7-7 XAVIER · XAVIER 41% → 53%

  4. 04

    Loren Winn stuffed by Charlotte Moriarty & Margo Kemp

    Set 5 · NOVA 10-13 XAVIER · XAVIER 82% → 92%

  5. 05
    Margo KempKill+10.4%

    Kill by Margo Kemp (set by Macy Hatkevich)

    Set 5 · NOVA 10-12 XAVIER · XAVIER 71% → 82%

  6. 06
    Ava TildenKill+10.0%

    Kill by Ava Tilden (set by Macy Hatkevich)

    Set 5 · NOVA 9-10 XAVIER · XAVIER 56% → 66%

  7. 07
    Macy HatkevichAttack error+9.8%

    Attack error by Macy Hatkevich

    Set 5 · NOVA 4-2 XAVIER · NOVA 53% → 63%

  8. 08
    VillanovaAce+9.8%

    Villanova ace on Kasey Quenichet

    Set 5 · NOVA 6-3 XAVIER · NOVA 64% → 73%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
523851.29432281010.525.5
520957.19301111102122
512331.29001170010.513.5
5639.33301400031.58.5
5001.00032001600000
1319.222000010003
54419.000100000215
5000–2101920001
5002.000100400000
5000–300300000
5000–2500300000
4305.60000020031.54.5
1000–000000000
Team totals7128184.2346768739012699
Xavierhome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
515120.70011160153.519.5
515649.18412113112219
513020.6500002004215
59432.15600031010.59.5
54312.0833801170010.54.5
5203.667821700004
57321.190100500429
5000–231720003
5000–9101310001
2205.40000000010.52.5
1000–000000000
Team totals6717162.309609573621811114

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 NOVA · XAVIER 6

Set 1

11-25

Longest run 2 NOVAXAVIER 5

Set 2

30-28

Longest run 4 NOVAXAVIER 6

Set 3

25-21

Longest run 3 NOVAXAVIER 3

Set 4

22-25

Longest run 3 NOVAXAVIER 5

Set 5

11-15

Longest run 2 NOVAXAVIER 3

Bars above the line = Xavier leads, below = Villanova leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Villanova

SlotSideout %Break %
1
53%8/15
42%5/12
2
54%7/13
36%4/11
3
43%6/14
36%4/11
4
75%6/8
60%9/15
5
60%6/10
0%0/6
6
71%5/7
33%3/9
All
57%38/67
39%25/64

Xavier

SlotSideout %Break %
1
57%8/14
33%3/9
2
64%7/11
50%8/16
3
60%6/10
45%5/11
4
43%6/14
57%8/14
5
100%6/6
33%3/9
6
67%6/9
25%2/8
All
61%39/64
43%29/67

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

213 rallies

#NOVA-XAVIERSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1XAVIERXAVIER×5AceXavieraced Mina Diggs+2.3
20-2XAVIERXAVIER×5AceXavieraced Mina Diggs+2.2
30-3XAVIERXAVIER×5Attack errTaylor Lewis+2.1
40-4XAVIERXAVIER×5Attack errTaylor Lewis+1.9
50-5XAVIERXAVIER×5Attack errReagan McGivern+1.7
61-5XAVIERNOVAServe errXavier+1.1
71-6NOVAXAVIERKillMargo Kemp+1.2
81-7XAVIERXAVIERKillCharlotte Moriartyset Macy Hatkevich+1.4
92-7XAVIERNOVAKillCampbell McKinnonset Alyssa Nelson+0.9
102-8NOVAXAVIER×3KillMargo Kempset Macy Hatkevich+1.0
112-9XAVIERXAVIER×3KillMacy Hatkevichset Jamison Gordon+1.1
122-10XAVIERXAVIER×3Attack errChloe Kelly+0.9
133-10NOVA
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.5
143-11NOVAXAVIERKillGabrielle Semonaset Macy Hatkevich+0.6
153-12XAVIERXAVIERKillCharlotte Moriartyset Kelsey Niesen+0.6
164-12XAVIERNOVAKillCampbell McKinnonset Selah O'Connor+0.3
174-13NOVAXAVIERKillCatherine Flahartyset Kasey Quenichet+0.4
185-13XAVIERNOVAKillLoren Winnset Selah O'Connor+0.3
195-14NOVAXAVIERKillGabrielle Semonaset Macy Hatkevich+0.4
206-14XAVIERNOVAKillReagan McGivernset Alyssa Nelson+0.3
216-15NOVAXAVIERBlockedReagan McGivernblk Margo Kemp+0.4
227-15XAVIERNOVAKillChloe Kellyset Alyssa Nelson+0.2
237-16NOVAXAVIERKillMargo Kempset Macy Hatkevich+0.3
247-17XAVIERXAVIERAceXavier+0.3
258-17XAVIERNOVAKillTaylor Lewisset Alyssa Nelson+0.1
269-17NOVANOVAKillChloe Kellyset Mina Diggs+0.2
279-18NOVAXAVIER×5Serve errVillanova+0.3
289-19XAVIERXAVIER×5KillCharlotte Moriarty+0.2
299-20XAVIERXAVIER×5AceXavieraced Chloe Kelly+0.1
309-21XAVIERXAVIER×5KillGabrielle Semona·
319-22XAVIERXAVIER×5Attack errCampbell McKinnon·
3210-22XAVIERNOVAKillCampbell McKinnonset Selah O'Connor·
3310-23NOVAXAVIERKillCharlotte Moriartyset Macy Hatkevich·
3411-23XAVIERNOVAServe errXavier·
3511-24NOVAXAVIERKillGabrielle Semonaset Macy Hatkevich·
3611-25XAVIERXAVIERKillCharlotte Moriartyset Kelsey Niesen·
Set 2
11-0NOVANOVAAceVillanovaaced Kasey Quenichet+2.1
21-1NOVAXAVIERKillMargo Kempset Macy Hatkevich+1.5
32-1XAVIERNOVAKillLoren Winnset Selah O'Connor+1.6
43-1NOVANOVAAttack errCharlotte Moriarty+2.2
53-2NOVAXAVIERKillCharlotte Moriartyset Macy Hatkevich+1.5
64-2XAVIERNOVAAttack errCharlotte Moriarty+1.7
75-2NOVANOVAKillTaylor Lewisset Loren Winn+2.3
85-3NOVAXAVIERKillGabrielle Semonaset Macy Hatkevich+1.5
96-3XAVIERNOVA×4KillCampbell McKinnonset Alyssa Nelson+1.7
107-3NOVANOVA×4KillAnnika Veurinkset Alyssa Nelson+2.2
118-3NOVANOVA×4KillAnnika Veurink+2.1
129-3NOVANOVA×4KillAbby Harrellset Campbell McKinnon+1.8
139-4NOVAXAVIERServe errVillanova+1.0
1410-4XAVIERNOVAKillTaylor Lewisset Alyssa Nelson+1.3
1510-5NOVAXAVIERKillMargo Kempset Macy Hatkevich+1.0
1611-5XAVIERNOVAKillAbby Harrellset Alyssa Nelson+1.3
1711-6NOVAXAVIERKillAva Tildenset Macy Hatkevich+1.0
1812-6XAVIERNOVAKillAbby Harrellset Selah O'Connor+1.3
1913-6NOVANOVABlockedCharlotte Moriartyblk Loren Winn, Reagan McGivern+1.5
2013-7NOVAXAVIERServe errVillanova+0.8
2114-7XAVIERNOVAKillCampbell McKinnonset Selah O'Connor+1.0
2214-8NOVAXAVIERServe errVillanova+0.7
2315-8XAVIERNOVAKillCampbell McKinnonset Selah O'Connor+1.0
2415-9NOVAXAVIERKillCharlotte Moriartyset Macy Hatkevich+0.7
2516-9XAVIERNOVAKillCampbell McKinnonset Alyssa Nelson+1.0
2616-10NOVAXAVIERKillCatherine Flahartyset Macy Hatkevich+0.6
2717-10XAVIERNOVAKillAbby Harrellset Marikate Ritterbusch+0.9
2817-11NOVAXAVIERKillAva Tildenset Macy Hatkevich+0.6
2918-11XAVIERNOVAKillAbby Harrellset Alyssa Nelson+0.9
3018-12NOVAXAVIERKillMacy Hatkevichset Charlotte Moriarty+0.5
3118-13XAVIERXAVIERBlockedReagan McGivernblk Charlotte Moriarty+1.1
3219-13XAVIERNOVAKillAbby Harrellset Selah O'Connor+1.2
3319-14NOVAXAVIER×3KillMacy Hatkevichset Kelsey Niesen+0.7
3419-15XAVIERXAVIER×3Bad setSelah O'Connor+1.4
3519-16XAVIERXAVIER×3Attack errCampbell McKinnon+2.0
3620-16XAVIERNOVAKillLoren Winnset Selah O'Connor+2.1
3720-17NOVAXAVIERKillGabrielle Semonaset Macy Hatkevich+1.4
3821-17XAVIERNOVAKillLoren Winnset Selah O'Connor+2.1
3921-18NOVAXAVIER×6Attack errCampbell McKinnon+1.3
4021-19XAVIERXAVIER×6AceXavieraced Campbell McKinnon+2.7
4121-20XAVIERXAVIER×6Attack errAbby Harrell+3.9
4221-21XAVIERXAVIER×6KillCatherine Flahartyset Kelsey Niesen+4.9
4321-22XAVIERXAVIER×6KillCatherine Flahartyset Macy Hatkevich+5.6
4421-23XAVIERXAVIER×6AceXavier+5.2
4522-23XAVIERNOVA×3KillTaylor Lewisset Alyssa Nelson+2.7
4623-23NOVANOVA×3KillAbby Harrellset Alyssa Nelson+6.3
4724-23NOVANOVA×3BlockedAva Tildenblk Taylor Lewis, Annika Veurink+8.7
4824-24NOVAXAVIERAttack errTaylor Lewis+6.3
4924-25XAVIERXAVIERKillCatherine Flahartyset Kelsey Niesen+8.3
5025-25XAVIERNOVAKillAbby Harrellset Cat Young+5.9
5125-26NOVAXAVIERKillMargo Kempset Macy Hatkevich+5.9
5226-26XAVIERNOVAAttack errAva Tilden+5.9
5327-26NOVANOVAKillAbby Harrellset Alyssa Nelson+8.7
5427-27NOVAXAVIERKillAva Tildenset Macy Hatkevich+6.3
5528-27XAVIERNOVAKillAbby Harrell+6.3
5628-28NOVAXAVIERKillCharlotte Moriartyset Kelsey Niesen+6.3
5729-28XAVIERNOVAKillReagan McGivernset Alyssa Nelson+6.3
5830-28NOVANOVAAttack errCharlotte Moriarty+9.2
Set 3
11-0XAVIERNOVAKillCampbell McKinnonset Selah O'Connor+2.4
21-1NOVAXAVIERKillAva Tildenset Macy Hatkevich+2.3
32-1XAVIERNOVAKillCampbell McKinnonset Marikate Ritterbusch+2.5
42-2NOVAXAVIERKillMargo Kempset Macy Hatkevich+2.4
53-2XAVIERNOVA×3Attack errMacy Hatkevich+2.5
64-2NOVANOVA×3KillAbby Harrellset Alyssa Nelson+3.6
75-2NOVANOVA×3KillAbby Harrellset Alyssa Nelson+3.5
85-3NOVAXAVIERKillJamison Gordon+2.3
96-3XAVIERNOVAKillTaylor Lewisset Alyssa Nelson+2.6
107-3NOVANOVAAttack errCharlotte Moriarty+3.5
117-4NOVAXAVIER×3KillMargo Kempset Jamison Gordon+2.2
127-5XAVIERXAVIER×3KillGabrielle Semonaset Jamison Gordon+3.4
137-6XAVIERXAVIER×3KillQuinci Thomasset Jamison Gordon+3.6
148-6XAVIERNOVAKillTaylor Lewisset Alyssa Nelson+2.9
158-7NOVAXAVIERAttack errAbby Harrell+2.7
168-8XAVIERXAVIERAttack errAbby Harrell+3.9
179-8XAVIERNOVAKillAbby Harrellset Selah O'Connor+3.0
189-9NOVAXAVIERKillGabrielle Semonaset Macy Hatkevich+2.9
1910-9XAVIERNOVAKillReagan McGivernset Selah O'Connor+3.1
2010-10NOVAXAVIERServe errVillanova+2.9
2110-11XAVIERXAVIERAceXavier+4.2
2211-11XAVIERNOVAKillCampbell McKinnonset Selah O'Connor+3.0
2312-11NOVANOVABlockedMargo Kempblk Annika Veurink, Campbell McKinnon+4.5
2412-12NOVAXAVIERKillAva Tildenset Macy Hatkevich+3.2
2513-12NOVA
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+3.4
2614-12NOVANOVAKillAbby Harrellset Mina Diggs+4.8
2714-13NOVAXAVIERServe errVillanova+3.2
2815-13XAVIERNOVAKillTaylor Lewisset Alyssa Nelson+3.6
2915-14NOVAXAVIERAttack errAbby Harrell+3.3
3016-14XAVIERNOVAKillAbby Harrellset Alyssa Nelson+3.8
3116-15NOVAXAVIERKillGabrielle Semonaset Jamison Gordon+3.4
3217-15XAVIERNOVAKillReagan McGivernset Selah O'Connor+4.0
3317-16NOVAXAVIERAttack errLoren Winn+3.5
3417-17XAVIERXAVIERBlockedLoren Winnblk Ava Tilden, Gabrielle Semona+5.6
3518-17XAVIERNOVAKillCampbell McKinnonset Selah O'Connor+4.4
3618-18NOVAXAVIERKillGabrielle Semonaset Macy Hatkevich+4.3
3718-19XAVIERXAVIERBlockedCampbell McKinnonblk Catherine Flaharty, Margo Kemp+6.3
3819-19XAVIERNOVA×3KillCampbell McKinnonset Selah O'Connor+4.5
3920-19NOVANOVA×3Attack errCatherine Flaharty+7.2
4021-19NOVANOVA×3KillCampbell McKinnonset Alyssa Nelson+7.3
4121-20NOVAXAVIERKillCharlotte Moriartyset Kelsey Niesen+4.3
4222-20XAVIERNOVAKillCampbell McKinnonset Alyssa Nelson+5.8
4322-21NOVAXAVIERKillAva Tildenset Jamison Gordon+4.5
4423-21XAVIERNOVA×3KillTaylor Lewisset Alyssa Nelson+6.6
4524-21NOVANOVA×3KillAbby Harrellset Alyssa Nelson+6.7
4625-21NOVANOVA×3AceVillanova+2.7
Set 4
11-0NOVANOVABlockedAva Tildenblk Loren Winn, Reagan McGivern+3.8
22-0NOVANOVAKillCampbell McKinnonset Selah O'Connor+3.9
32-1NOVAXAVIER×4Bad setSelah O'Connor+2.7
42-2XAVIERXAVIER×4BlockedLoren Winnblk Margo Kemp, Charlotte Moriarty+3.8
52-3XAVIERXAVIER×4AceXavier+3.8
62-4XAVIERXAVIER×4AceXavieraced Abby Harrell+3.6
73-4XAVIERNOVAKillReagan McGivernset Selah O'Connor+2.6
83-5NOVAXAVIERServe errVillanova+2.7
94-5XAVIERNOVAKillCampbell McKinnonset Selah O'Connor+2.6
104-6NOVAXAVIERKillCharlotte Moriartyset Macy Hatkevich+2.7
115-6XAVIERNOVA×3KillCampbell McKinnonset Alyssa Nelson+2.7
126-6NOVANOVA×3KillCampbell McKinnonset Alyssa Nelson+4.1
137-6NOVANOVA×3BlockedCatherine Flahartyblk Abby Harrell, Annika Veurink+4.4
147-7NOVAXAVIERBlockedAbby Harrellblk Catherine Flaharty, Gabrielle Semona+3.1
158-7XAVIERNOVAServe errXavier+3.3
168-8NOVAXAVIERAttack errAbby Harrell+3.2
178-9XAVIERXAVIERKillCharlotte Moriartyset Macy Hatkevich+4.4
189-9XAVIERNOVAKillAbby Harrellset Campbell McKinnon+3.2
199-10NOVAXAVIERKillCatherine Flahartyset Macy Hatkevich+3.3
2010-10XAVIERNOVAKillAbby Harrellset Selah O'Connor+3.4
2111-10NOVANOVAKillReagan McGivern+5.0
2211-11NOVAXAVIERKillMargo Kempset Macy Hatkevich+3.5
2311-12XAVIERXAVIERAttack errAbby Harrell+4.9
2412-12XAVIERNOVAKillCampbell McKinnonset Selah O'Connor+3.6
2513-12NOVANOVAAceVillanovaaced Kelsey Niesen+5.4
2613-13NOVAXAVIER×5Serve errVillanova+3.8
2713-14XAVIERXAVIER×5KillJamison Gordonset Margo Kemp+5.3
2813-15XAVIERXAVIER×5BlockedCampbell McKinnonblk Quinci Thomas, Gabrielle Semona+5.1
2913-16XAVIERXAVIER×5KillGabrielle Semonaset Jamison Gordon+4.6
3013-17XAVIERXAVIER×5KillQuinci Thomasset Jamison Gordon+3.8
3114-17XAVIERNOVA×3KillCampbell McKinnonset Selah O'Connor+2.2
3215-17NOVANOVA×3KillCampbell McKinnonset Alyssa Nelson+4.0
3316-17NOVANOVA×3KillAnnika Veurinkset Alyssa Nelson+5.2
3416-18NOVAXAVIER×3KillCharlotte Moriartyset Macy Hatkevich+4.3
3516-19XAVIERXAVIER×3KillGabrielle Semonaset Macy Hatkevich+5.2
3616-20XAVIERXAVIER×3Attack errCampbell McKinnon+4.0
3717-20XAVIERNOVAKillTaylor Lewisset Marikate Ritterbusch+2.0
3818-20NOVANOVAAceVillanovaaced Charlotte Moriarty+4.2
3918-21NOVAXAVIERKillCharlotte Moriartyset Macy Hatkevich+4.0
4019-21XAVIERNOVAKillAbby Harrellset Alyssa Nelson+3.0
4119-22NOVAXAVIERKillAva Tildenset Catherine Flaharty+4.2
4219-23XAVIERXAVIERBlockedAbby Harrellblk Catherine Flaharty, Margo Kemp+3.7
4320-23XAVIERNOVA×3KillTaylor Lewisset Alyssa Nelson+1.3
4421-23NOVANOVA×3AceVillanovaaced Ava Tilden+3.4
4522-23NOVANOVA×3BlockedCatherine Flahartyblk Abby Harrell, Reagan McGivern+6.5
4622-24NOVAXAVIERKillMargo Kempset Macy Hatkevich+7.6
4722-25XAVIERXAVIERKillMargo Kempset Selah O'Connor+4.4
Set 5
11-0XAVIERNOVAKillCampbell McKinnonset Selah O'Connor+6.5
22-0NOVANOVAAttack errMacy Hatkevich+9.1
32-1NOVAXAVIERKillMargo Kempset Macy Hatkevich+6.1
42-2XAVIERXAVIERAttack errCampbell McKinnon+9.0
53-2XAVIERNOVAServe errXavier+7.0
64-2NOVANOVAAttack errMacy Hatkevich+9.8
74-3NOVAXAVIERBlockedCampbell McKinnonblk Macy Hatkevich, Margo Kemp+6.5
85-3XAVIERNOVAServe errXavier+7.4
96-3NOVANOVAAceVillanovaaced Kasey Quenichet+9.8
106-4NOVAXAVIERKillMacy Hatkevichset Kasey Quenichet+5.9
116-5XAVIERXAVIERBlockedAbby Harrellblk Catherine Flaharty, Gabrielle Semona+9.7
127-5XAVIERNOVAKillTaylor Lewisset Alyssa Nelson+8.2
137-6NOVAXAVIER×3KillGabrielle Semonaset Macy Hatkevich+7.2
147-7XAVIERXAVIER×3KillCatherine Flahartyset Kelsey Niesen+11.4
157-8XAVIERXAVIER×3KillAva Tildenset Macy Hatkevich+11.9
168-8XAVIERNOVAKillTaylor Lewisset Alyssa Nelson+8.6
178-9NOVAXAVIERKillCharlotte Moriartyset Kelsey Niesen+9.2
189-9XAVIERNOVAAttack errAva Tilden+9.3
199-10NOVAXAVIERKillAva Tildenset Macy Hatkevich+10.0
209-11XAVIERXAVIERKillMargo Kemp+13.2
2110-11XAVIERNOVAKillCampbell McKinnonset Selah O'Connor+8.0
2210-12NOVAXAVIERKillMargo Kempset Macy Hatkevich+10.4
2310-13XAVIERXAVIERBlockedLoren Winnblk Charlotte Moriarty, Margo Kemp+11.0
2411-13XAVIERNOVAAttack errCharlotte Moriarty+4.5
2511-14NOVAXAVIERKillMargo Kempset Macy Hatkevich+7.9
2611-15XAVIERXAVIERKillCharlotte Moriartyset Macy Hatkevich+4.1

Score shown after each rally, Villanova first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).