Final · 4 setsFri, Oct 16, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Creighton def. Villanova 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Creighton 76.7% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 16, 4:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Creighton won at Villanova 3-1 (25-23, 25-23, 24-26, 25-16) on Fri, Oct 16, 2026.

Data through · final Oct 16

Set1234Sets
CREIGH252524253
NOVA232326161

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Creighton led in all four phases.

Win probability never moved more than 6.8 points on one rally; Villanova topped out at 34% in Set 1. Creighton went in as RallyIQ's 77% pick.

CreightonVillanova
  • Hitting+.131
    .373.242

    56 K / 12 E against 55 K / 23 E.

  • Longest run+3
    63

    Creighton scored 6 straight in the second set to turn a 3–6 deficit into a 9–6 lead. That set ended 25–23.

Villanova above 50Creighton belowMax swing 6.8%

CreightonVillanova

Aces
Creighton 8·Villanova 5
Serve err
Creighton 16·Villanova 12
Blocks
Creighton 7·Villanova 30 BS · 14 BA vs 1 BS · 4 BA
Digs
Creighton 41·Villanova 47

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Villanova above 50 · Creighton below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+6.8% CREIGHrally 187 · set 4

Biggest swing: 6.8% to Creighton — set 1, CREIGH 25-23 NOVA. Abby Harrell stuffed by Eloise Brandewie & Ashlyn Paymal. NOVA win probability 19% → 12%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

CREIGH 81.2%18.8% NOVA

Creighton wins

3-0
32.7%
3-1
30.5%
3-2
17.9%

Villanova wins

3-0
3.0%
3-1
6.2%
3-2
9.6%
CREIGH break %
45.2% vs this opp
NOVA break %
38.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Abby Harrell stuffed by Eloise Brandewie & Ashlyn Paymal

    Set 1 · CREIGH 25-23 NOVA · CREIGH 81% → 88%

  2. 02
    Ashlyn PaymalKill+5.7%

    Kill by Ashlyn Paymal (set by Katie Dalton)

    Set 1 · CREIGH 24-23 NOVA · CREIGH 75% → 81%

  3. 03

    Kill by Campbell McKinnon (set by Abby Harrell)

    Set 1 · CREIGH 21-21 NOVA · NOVA 20% → 25%

  4. 04
    Nora WurtzKill+4.5%

    Kill by Nora Wurtz (set by Katie Dalton)

    Set 1 · CREIGH 23-22 NOVA · CREIGH 75% → 79%

  5. 05
    Abby HarrellKill+4.4%

    Kill by Abby Harrell (set by Alyssa Nelson)

    Set 1 · CREIGH 23-23 NOVA · NOVA 21% → 25%

  6. 06
    Ashlyn PaymalAttack error+4.0%

    Attack error by Ashlyn Paymal

    Set 3 · CREIGH 24-26 NOVA · NOVA 9% → 13%

  7. 07
    Ayden AmesKill+3.9%

    Kill by Ayden Ames (set by Katie Dalton)

    Set 2 · CREIGH 25-23 NOVA · CREIGH 92% → 96%

  8. 08

    Kill by Campbell McKinnon (set by Alyssa Nelson)

    Set 1 · CREIGH 22-22 NOVA · NOVA 21% → 25%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
411015.7333130002113
410216.50020010052.512.5
411331.2580038100011
48217.35300000031.59.5
4117.000460290031.52.5
3000–023000002
411021.52400130010.511.5
44310.100001200004
4011-1.000231920003
4000–221920002
1000–001000000
Team totals5612118.37355816415014799
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
418439.3592135200019
4141141.0730239202117
48114.50000000010.58.5
44313.07700000111.55.5
4002.00048021100000
4000–000100000
410422.2731114000011
41011.000011200002
4000–2021510000
3000–000000000
Team totals5523132.2425351247814388

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Creighton vs Villanova

Season series · Creighton leads 1-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 CREIGH · NOVA 3

Set 1

25-23

Longest run 4 CREIGHNOVA 3

Set 2

25-23

Longest run 6 CREIGHNOVA 3

Set 3

24-26

Longest run 3 CREIGHNOVA 3

Set 4

25-16

Longest run 5 CREIGHNOVA 2

Bars above the line = Villanova leads, below = Creighton leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Creighton

SlotSideout %Break %
1
71%12/17
33%5/15
2
61%11/18
45%9/20
3
65%11/17
45%9/20
4
71%10/14
9%1/11
5
75%9/12
55%11/20
6
73%8/11
25%3/12
All
69%61/89
39%38/98

Villanova

SlotSideout %Break %
1
52%12/23
33%5/15
2
61%11/18
25%4/16
3
67%10/15
48%10/21
4
50%9/18
33%5/15
5
69%9/13
10%1/10
6
82%9/11
25%3/12
All
61%60/98
31%28/89

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

187 rallies

#CREIGH-NOVASrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0CREIGHCREIGHKillAbbey Hayesset Katie Dalton+1.8
21-1CREIGHNOVAKillReagan McGivernset Alyssa Nelson+1.4
31-2NOVANOVAKillCampbell McKinnonset Alyssa Nelson+2.0
42-2NOVACREIGHServe errVillanova+1.4
52-3CREIGHNOVA×3Serve errCreighton+1.6
62-4NOVANOVA×3KillAbby Harrellset Alyssa Nelson+2.2
72-5NOVANOVA×3Attack errTrinity Shadd-Ceres+2.3
83-5NOVACREIGHKillAbbey Hayesset Katie Dalton+1.5
93-6CREIGHNOVAKillAbby Harrellset Mina Diggs+1.8
104-6NOVACREIGHServe errVillanova+1.6
114-7CREIGHNOVAKillAbby Harrellset Alyssa Nelson+1.8
124-8NOVANOVABlockedEloise Brandewieblk Campbell McKinnon, Reagan McGivern+2.4
135-8NOVACREIGH×4KillNora Wurtzset Katie Dalton+1.5
146-8CREIGHCREIGH×4AceSaige Damrowaced Abby Harrell+2.2
157-8CREIGHCREIGH×4Attack errCampbell McKinnon+2.3
168-8CREIGHCREIGH×4BlockedTaylor Lewisblk Nora Wurtz, Ayden Ames+2.3
178-9CREIGHNOVA×3KillCampbell McKinnonset Alyssa Nelson+1.9
188-10NOVANOVA×3KillReagan McGivern+2.7
198-11NOVANOVA×3KillAbby Harrellset Alyssa Nelson+2.7
209-11NOVACREIGHKillAyden Amesset Katie Dalton+1.7
219-12CREIGHNOVAKillCampbell McKinnonset Alyssa Nelson+2.1
229-13NOVANOVAKillAbby Harrellset Alyssa Nelson+2.7
2310-13NOVACREIGH×4KillAshlyn Paymalset Katie Dalton+1.6
2411-13CREIGHCREIGH×4KillAbbey Hayesset Nora Wurtz+2.5
2512-13CREIGHCREIGH×4AcePeyton Carlsonaced Mina Diggs+2.7
2613-13CREIGHCREIGH×4AcePeyton Carlson+2.8
2713-14CREIGHNOVAKillAbby Harrellset Alyssa Nelson+2.3
2814-14NOVACREIGHKillNora Wurtzset Katie Dalton+2.1
2914-15CREIGHNOVAServe errCreighton+2.4
3014-16NOVANOVAKillAnnika Veurinkset Alyssa Nelson+3.4
3115-16NOVACREIGH×4KillAbbey Hayesset Katie Dalton+2.2
3216-16CREIGHCREIGH×4KillAbbey Hayesset Katie Dalton+3.2
3317-16CREIGHCREIGH×4Attack errCampbell McKinnon+3.2
3418-16CREIGHCREIGH×4KillAbbey Hayesset Eloise Brandewie+3.0
3518-17CREIGHNOVAKillAbby Harrellset Alyssa Nelson+2.1
3618-18NOVANOVAAttack errAbbey Hayes+3.5
3719-18NOVACREIGHKillEloise Brandewieset Katie Dalton+2.7
3820-18CREIGHCREIGHAttack errTaylor Lewis+3.4
3920-19CREIGHNOVAServe errCreighton+2.3
4021-19NOVACREIGHBlockedCampbell McKinnonblk Katie Dalton, Eloise Brandewie+2.7
4121-20CREIGHNOVAKillTaylor Lewisset Alyssa Nelson+2.4
4221-21NOVANOVAKillCampbell McKinnonset Abby Harrell+4.5
4322-21NOVACREIGHKillAyden Amesset Katie Dalton+3.8
4422-22CREIGHNOVAKillCampbell McKinnonset Alyssa Nelson+3.8
4523-22NOVACREIGHKillNora Wurtzset Katie Dalton+4.5
4623-23CREIGHNOVAKillAbby Harrellset Alyssa Nelson+4.4
4724-23NOVACREIGHKillAshlyn Paymalset Katie Dalton+5.7
4825-23CREIGHCREIGHBlockedAbby Harrellblk Eloise Brandewie, Ashlyn Paymal+6.8
Set 2
10-1NOVANOVAAceVillanovaaced Abbey Hayes+1.6
21-1NOVACREIGHServe errVillanova+1.1
31-2CREIGHNOVAKillReagan McGivernset Alyssa Nelson+1.2
41-3NOVANOVAAttack errAbbey Hayes+1.7
52-3NOVACREIGHServe errVillanova+1.2
62-4CREIGHNOVAKillAbby Harrellset Alyssa Nelson+1.3
72-5NOVANOVABlockedKatie Daltonblk Annika Veurink+1.8
83-5NOVACREIGHKillEloise Brandewieset Katie Dalton+1.2
93-6CREIGHNOVAServe errCreighton+1.4
104-6NOVACREIGH×6BlockedCampbell McKinnonblk Katie Dalton, Eloise Brandewie+1.2
115-6CREIGHCREIGH×6Attack errAbby Harrell+1.7
126-6CREIGHCREIGH×6Attack errAnnika Veurink+1.7
137-6CREIGHCREIGH×6KillAyden Amesset Katie Dalton+1.7
148-6CREIGHCREIGH×6AceSaige Damrow+1.5
159-6CREIGHCREIGH×6KillNora Wurtzset Katie Dalton+1.4
169-7CREIGHNOVAKillCampbell McKinnonset Alyssa Nelson+1.0
1710-7NOVACREIGHKillNora Wurtzset Katie Dalton+1.0
1811-7CREIGHCREIGHBlockedCampbell McKinnonblk Nora Wurtz, Ashlyn Paymal+1.2
1911-8CREIGHNOVAKillTaylor Lewisset Alyssa Nelson+0.8
2012-8NOVACREIGHKillAshlyn Paymalset Nora Wurtz+0.9
2112-9CREIGHNOVAServe errCreighton+0.8
2212-10NOVANOVAAceVillanovaaced Saige Damrow+1.4
2313-10NOVACREIGHKillTrinity Shadd-Ceresset Katie Dalton+1.1
2413-11CREIGHNOVAServe errCreighton+1.1
2514-11NOVACREIGHBlockedAbby Harrellblk Eloise Brandewie, Ashlyn Paymal+1.2
2614-12CREIGHNOVAAttack errAbbey Hayes+1.1
2715-12NOVACREIGHKillTrinity Shadd-Ceresset Katie Dalton+1.2
2815-13CREIGHNOVAKillAnnika Veurinkset Alyssa Nelson+1.1
2916-13NOVACREIGHKillAyden Amesset Katie Dalton+1.3
3016-14CREIGHNOVAKillAnnika Veurinkset Alyssa Nelson+1.2
3117-14NOVACREIGHKillNora Wurtzset Katie Dalton+1.3
3217-15CREIGHNOVAKillCampbell McKinnonset Alyssa Nelson+1.2
3318-15NOVACREIGHKillNora Wurtzset Katie Dalton+1.4
3418-16CREIGHNOVAKillCampbell McKinnonset Alyssa Nelson+1.2
3519-16NOVACREIGHKillNora Wurtzset Katie Dalton+1.4
3619-17CREIGHNOVAServe errCreighton+1.2
3720-17NOVACREIGH×4KillAshlyn Paymalset Katie Dalton+1.5
3821-17CREIGHCREIGH×4AceSydney Breissingeraced Abby Harrell+1.5
3922-17CREIGHCREIGH×4AceSydney Breissinger+0.9
4023-17CREIGHCREIGH×4KillEloise Brandewieset Sydney Breissinger+0.4
4123-18CREIGHNOVA×3KillAbby Harrellset Alyssa Nelson+0.1
4223-19NOVANOVA×3KillCampbell McKinnonset Mina Diggs+0.3
4323-20NOVANOVA×3Attack errEloise Brandewie+0.7
4424-20NOVACREIGHKillKatie Daltonset Sydney Breissinger+0.9
4524-21CREIGHNOVA×3KillAbby Harrellset Alyssa Nelson+0.3
4624-22NOVANOVA×3KillCampbell McKinnonset Taylor Lewis+0.9
4724-23NOVANOVA×3AceVillanovaaced Sydney Breissinger+2.3
4825-23NOVACREIGHKillAyden Amesset Katie Dalton+3.9
Set 3
10-1CREIGHNOVAKillAbby Harrellset Alyssa Nelson+0.6
20-2NOVANOVAAttack errAshlyn Paymal+0.9
31-2NOVACREIGHKillEloise Brandewieset Katie Dalton+0.6
42-2CREIGHCREIGHAttack errTaylor Lewis+0.8
52-3CREIGHNOVAKillTaylor Lewisset Alyssa Nelson+0.6
62-4NOVANOVAKillTaylor Lewisset Abby Harrell+0.9
73-4NOVACREIGH×3Serve errVillanova+0.6
84-4CREIGHCREIGH×3Attack errCampbell McKinnon+0.8
95-4CREIGHCREIGH×3KillAyden Amesset Eloise Brandewie+0.8
105-5CREIGHNOVAAttack errSydney Breissinger+0.6
116-5NOVACREIGHServe errVillanova+0.6
126-6CREIGHNOVAKillTaylor Lewisset Alyssa Nelson+0.6
137-6NOVACREIGHServe errVillanova+0.6
147-7CREIGHNOVAKillReagan McGivernset Alyssa Nelson+0.7
158-7NOVACREIGHKillAyden Amesset Katie Dalton+0.6
169-7CREIGHCREIGHKillNora Wurtzset Katie Dalton+0.8
179-8CREIGHNOVAKillAbby Harrellset Alyssa Nelson+0.6
1810-8NOVACREIGHKillAshlyn Paymalset Katie Dalton+0.6
1911-8CREIGHCREIGHAttack errAnnika Veurink+0.8
2011-9CREIGHNOVAServe errCreighton+0.5
2111-10NOVANOVAKillAbby Harrellset Alyssa Nelson+0.9
2212-10NOVACREIGHServe errVillanova+0.7
2313-10CREIGHCREIGHAceSydney Breissingeraced Campbell McKinnon+0.8
2413-11CREIGHNOVAServe errCreighton+0.6
2513-12NOVANOVAKillCampbell McKinnonset Alyssa Nelson+0.9
2614-12NOVACREIGHAttack errCampbell McKinnon+0.7
2714-13CREIGHNOVAServe errCreighton+0.7
2815-13NOVACREIGHKillEloise Brandewieset Katie Dalton+0.8
2915-14CREIGHNOVAKillCat Youngset Alyssa Nelson+0.7
3016-14NOVACREIGHKillNora Wurtzset Katie Dalton+0.8
3116-15CREIGHNOVAKillReagan McGivernset Alyssa Nelson+0.8
3217-15NOVACREIGHKillAyden Amesset Katie Dalton+0.8
3318-15CREIGHCREIGHKillAbbey Hayesset Saige Damrow+1.0
3418-16CREIGHNOVAKillReagan McGivernset Alyssa Nelson+0.6
3519-16NOVACREIGHKillAshlyn Paymalset Katie Dalton+0.7
3619-17CREIGHNOVAServe errCreighton+0.6
3720-17NOVACREIGHKillTrinity Shadd-Ceresset Katie Dalton+0.8
3820-18CREIGHNOVAKillTaylor Lewisset Alyssa Nelson+0.6
3920-19NOVANOVAKillTaylor Lewisset Alyssa Nelson+1.2
4021-19NOVACREIGHKillEloise Brandewieset Katie Dalton+1.1
4121-20CREIGHNOVAKillCampbell McKinnonset Alyssa Nelson+1.0
4221-21NOVANOVAAttack errTrinity Shadd-Ceres+1.8
4322-21NOVACREIGHKillEloise Brandewieset Katie Dalton+1.5
4422-22CREIGHNOVAServe errCreighton+1.6
4523-22NOVACREIGHKillTrinity Shadd-Ceresset Katie Dalton+1.8
4623-23CREIGHNOVAKillReagan McGivernset Alyssa Nelson+1.8
4724-23NOVACREIGHServe errVillanova+2.3
4824-24CREIGHNOVA×3Serve errCreighton+2.3
4924-25NOVANOVA×3KillAbby Harrellset Alyssa Nelson+3.5
5024-26NOVANOVA×3Attack errAshlyn Paymal+4.0
Set 4
11-0NOVACREIGH×5KillAshlyn Paymalset Katie Dalton+1.6
22-0CREIGHCREIGH×5AceNora Wurtzaced Campbell McKinnon+2.0
33-0CREIGHCREIGH×5KillAshlyn Paymalset Katie Dalton+1.8
44-0CREIGHCREIGH×5KillEloise Brandewie+1.6
55-0CREIGHCREIGH×5Attack errAnnika Veurink+1.4
65-1CREIGHNOVAKillAbby Harrellset Alyssa Nelson+0.9
76-1NOVACREIGHKillAbbey Hayesset Katie Dalton+1.0
87-1CREIGHCREIGHAttack errTaylor Lewis+1.1
97-2CREIGHNOVABlockedTrinity Shadd-Ceresblk Campbell McKinnon, Annika Veurink+0.7
107-3NOVANOVAAceVillanovaaced Saige Damrow+1.3
118-3NOVACREIGHBlockedCampbell McKinnonblk Katie Dalton, Eloise Brandewie+1.0
128-4CREIGHNOVAKillReagan McGivernset Katie Dalton+1.0
138-5NOVANOVAAceVillanovaaced Sydney Breissinger+1.6
149-5NOVACREIGHAttack errCampbell McKinnon+1.3
159-6CREIGHNOVAKillCampbell McKinnonset Alyssa Nelson+1.2
1610-6NOVACREIGHKillAyden Amesset Katie Dalton+1.3
1710-7CREIGHNOVAServe errCreighton+1.2
1811-7NOVACREIGHKillNora Wurtzset Katie Dalton+1.4
1911-8CREIGHNOVAServe errCreighton+1.3
2012-8NOVACREIGH×3Serve errVillanova+1.4
2113-8CREIGHCREIGH×3Attack errAbby Harrell+1.5
2214-8CREIGHCREIGH×3KillEloise Brandewieset Katie Dalton+1.2
2314-9CREIGHNOVAKillTaylor Lewisset Alyssa Nelson+0.7
2415-9NOVACREIGHServe errVillanova+0.8
2515-10CREIGHNOVAKillAnnika Veurinkset Alyssa Nelson+0.7
2616-10NOVACREIGHAttack errReagan McGivern+0.8
2716-11CREIGHNOVAKillTaylor Lewisset Alyssa Nelson+0.6
2817-11NOVACREIGH×4KillAyden Amesset Katie Dalton+0.8
2918-11CREIGHCREIGH×4Attack errCampbell McKinnon+0.7
3019-11CREIGHCREIGH×4KillAbbey Hayesset Katie Dalton+0.4
3120-11CREIGHCREIGH×4KillAyden Amesset Nora Wurtz+0.2
3220-12CREIGHNOVAKillCampbell McKinnonset Alyssa Nelson+0.1
3321-12NOVACREIGHServe errVillanova+0.1
3421-13CREIGHNOVAServe errCreighton+0.1
3522-13NOVACREIGHAttack errCampbell McKinnon+0.1
3622-14CREIGHNOVAKillAbby Harrellset Alyssa Nelson·
3723-14NOVACREIGHKillAbbey Hayesset Saige Damrow+0.1
3823-15CREIGHNOVAKillAbby Harrellset Alyssa Nelson·
3924-15NOVACREIGHKillAbbey Hayesset Katie Dalton·
4024-16CREIGHNOVAKillTaylor Lewisset Alyssa Nelson·
4125-16NOVACREIGHKillEloise Brandewieset Katie Dalton·

Score shown after each rally, Creighton first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).