FinalFri, Sep 4, 2026

AwayOVC

0:3

HomeMVC

Bradley def. Western Ill. 3–0

(25-15, 25-21, 25-22)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
W ILL	15	21	22	0
BRAD	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

BRAD above 50 · W ILL below

Biggest swing: 1.0% to Western Ill. — set 2, W ILL 20-20 BRAD. Gracie Furlong stuffed by Hillary Estes & Maria Eduarda Pereira Tonella. BRAD win probability 98% → 97%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

W ILL 4.1%95.9% BRAD

Western Ill. wins

3-0

0.5%

3-1

1.1%

3-2

2.5%

Bradley wins

3-0

58.2%

3-1

28.8%

3-2

8.9%

W ILL break %: 36.5% vs this opp
BRAD break %: 49.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Gracie FurlongAttack error+1.0%
Gracie Furlong stuffed by Hillary Estes & Maria Eduarda Pereira Tonella
Set 2 · W ILL 20-20 BRAD · W ILL 2% → 3%
02
Hillary EstesAttack error+0.8%
Attack error by Hillary Estes
Set 2 · W ILL 20-22 BRAD · BRAD 98% → 99%
03
Gracie FurlongKill+0.7%
Kill by Gracie Furlong (set by Maria Drapp)
Set 2 · W ILL 20-21 BRAD · BRAD 97% → 98%
04
W ILL serverAce+0.7%
Western Ill. ace on Megan DePoorter
Set 2 · W ILL 16-16 BRAD · W ILL 2% → 3%
05
Georgia HaynesKill+0.6%
Kill by Georgia Haynes (set by Jaleah Bauss)
Set 2 · W ILL 19-20 BRAD · W ILL 1% → 2%
06
Gracie FurlongKill+0.6%
Kill by Gracie Furlong (set by Maria Drapp)
Set 2 · W ILL 16-18 BRAD · BRAD 98% → 98%
07
Georgia HaynesAttack error+0.6%
Attack error by Georgia Haynes
Set 2 · W ILL 20-23 BRAD · BRAD 99% → 99%
08
Ashlee MarkertKill+0.5%
Kill by Ashlee Markert
Set 2 · W ILL 5-3 BRAD · W ILL 2% → 3%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Western Ill.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
10Maria Eduarda Pereira TonellaMB	3	4	2	11	.182	0	2	0	5	0	1	4	3	9
9Hillary EstesMB	3	6	3	14	.214	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
1Georgia HaynesOH	3	5	5	16	.000	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	5
12Kennedy AdairOH	3	4	4	20	.000	1	0	0	7	2	0	1	0.5	4.5
15Jaleah BaussS	3	1	0	3	.333	15	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	1
16Melaina HawblitzelOH	3	0	0	2	.000	0	1	0	2	2	0	0	0	1
8Ashlee MarkertOH	3	5	4	19	.053	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	5
17Emilia KouriOH	3	5	1	10	.400	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	5
5Grace UlatowskiOH	3	0	0	1	.000	0	1	1	6	0	0	0	0	1
14Alysia PerezS	3	0	0	1	.000	9	0	3	2	0	0	0	0	0
4Karlie LaneL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3Audrey PenderOH	1	1	0	2	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	2
6Madelyn NortonS	1	0	0	1	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		31	19	100	.120	28	4	6	31	6	1	8	5	58

Bradleyhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
2Gracie FurlongOH	3	15	3	30	.400	1	0	0	12	0	1	0.5	15.5
5Chloe ParkerMB	3	5	3	11	.182	0	0	0	4	0	2	1	6
4Mairen MannonMB	3	5	2	9	.333	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	6
13Adeline GoedheerMB	3	4	4	12	.000	1	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	5.5
12Maria DrappS	3	4	1	8	.375	30	1	0	6	0	0	0	5
9Ava PatchettL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	0	1	2	3	1	0	0	1
3Lauren DaleOH	3	7	1	18	.333	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	8
7Eirini BitsaktsiL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	4	7	1	0	0	1
6Megan DePoorterL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	5	1	0	8	2	0	0	1
8Maren OuelletteOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	2	1	1	0	0	0	2
17Trixie CarrollOH	1	2	2	4	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
16Ella NiglOH	1	0	0	2	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1Hayden BoothS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		42	16	95	.274	38	6	7	41	4	10	5	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 W ILL · BRAD 5

Set 1

15-25

Longest run 2 W ILLBRAD 5

Set 2

21-25

Longest run 4 W ILLBRAD 4

Set 3

22-25

Longest run 4 W ILLBRAD 3

Bars above the line = Bradley leads, below = Western Ill. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Western Ill.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	54%7/13	33%4/12
2	46%6/13	36%4/11
3	67%6/9	14%1/7
4	60%6/10	40%4/10
5	40%6/15	45%5/11
6	46%6/13	33%3/9
All	51%37/73	35%21/60

Bradley

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	62%8/13	60%9/15
2	70%7/10	36%4/11
3	60%6/10	45%5/11
4	67%6/9	33%3/9
5	50%6/12	60%9/15
6	100%6/6	50%6/12
All	65%39/60	49%36/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

133 rallies

Rally log

#	W ILL-BRAD	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	W ILL	BRAD	Kill	Gracie Furlong	set Maria Drapp	+0.4
2	1-1	BRAD	W ILL	Kill	Kennedy Adair	set Jaleah Bauss	+0.4
3	1-2	W ILL	BRAD×5	Kill	Gracie Furlong	set Maria Drapp	+0.4
4	1-3	BRAD	BRAD×5	Kill	Adeline Goedheer	set Maria Drapp	+0.4
5	1-4	BRAD	BRAD×5	Attack err	Maria Eduarda Pereira Tonella		+0.4
6	1-5	BRAD	BRAD×5	Kill	Gracie Furlong	set Maria Drapp	+0.3
7	1-6	BRAD	BRAD×5	Attack err	Kennedy Adair		+0.2
8	2-6	BRAD	W ILL	Kill	Maria Eduarda Pereira Tonella	set Jaleah Bauss	+0.2
9	2-7	W ILL	BRAD	Kill	Chloe Parker	set Maria Drapp	+0.2
10	3-7	BRAD	W ILL	Serve err	BRAD server		+0.2
11	3-8	W ILL	BRAD×3	Kill	Lauren Dale	set Maria Drapp	+0.2
12	3-9	BRAD	BRAD×3	Ace	BRAD server	aced Kennedy Adair	+0.2
13	3-10	BRAD	BRAD×3	Attack err	Emilia Kouri		+0.1
14	4-10	BRAD	W ILL	Kill	Emilia Kouri	set Alysia Perez	+0.1
15	4-11	W ILL	BRAD	Kill	Mairen Mannon	set Maria Drapp	+0.1
16	4-12	BRAD	BRAD	Attack err	Ashlee Markert		+0.1
17	5-12	BRAD	W ILL	Kill	Hillary Estes	set Alysia Perez	+0.1
18	5-13	W ILL	BRAD×4	Serve err	W ILL server		+0.1
19	5-14	BRAD	BRAD×4	Kill	Adeline Goedheer		+0.0
20	5-15	BRAD	BRAD×4	Kill	Gracie Furlong	set Megan DePoorter	+0.0
21	5-16	BRAD	BRAD×4	Kill	Maria Drapp	set Megan DePoorter	+0.0
22	6-16	BRAD	W ILL	Attack err	Gracie Furlong		+0.0
23	7-16	W ILL	W ILL	Ace	W ILL server	aced Ava Patchett	+0.0
24	7-17	W ILL	BRAD	Kill	Gracie Furlong	set Adeline Goedheer	+0.0
25	8-17	BRAD	W ILL	Kill	Kennedy Adair	set Jaleah Bauss	+0.0
26	8-18	W ILL	BRAD	Kill	Chloe Parker	set Maria Drapp	+0.0
27	8-19	BRAD	BRAD	Attack err	Georgia Haynes	blk Adeline Goedheer, Lauren Dale	+0.0
28	9-19	BRAD	W ILL	Kill	Kennedy Adair	set Jaleah Bauss	+0.0
29	10-19	W ILL	W ILL	Attack err	Chloe Parker		+0.0
30	10-20	W ILL	BRAD	Serve err	W ILL server		+0.0
31	11-20	BRAD	W ILL	Attack err	Chloe Parker	blk Maria Eduarda Pereira Tonella, Kennedy Adair	+0.0
32	12-20	W ILL	W ILL	Attack err	Lauren Dale		+0.0
33	12-21	W ILL	BRAD	Attack err	Ashlee Markert	blk Mairen Mannon, Chloe Parker	+0.0
34	13-21	BRAD	W ILL	Kill	Emilia Kouri	set Alysia Perez	+0.0
35	13-22	W ILL	BRAD	Kill	Lauren Dale	set Maria Drapp	+0.0
36	14-22	BRAD	W ILL	Kill	Hillary Estes	set Alysia Perez	+0.0
37	14-23	W ILL	BRAD	Attack err	Ashlee Markert		+0.0
38	15-23	BRAD	W ILL	Kill	Hillary Estes	set Jaleah Bauss	+0.0
39	15-24	W ILL	BRAD	Attack err	Georgia Haynes		+0.0
40	15-25	BRAD	BRAD	Kill	Adeline Goedheer	set Maria Drapp	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	BRAD	BRAD	Ace	BRAD server	aced Melaina Hawblitzel	+0.3
2	1-1	BRAD	W ILL	Kill	Hillary Estes	set Grace Ulatowski	+0.3
3	1-2	W ILL	BRAD	Kill	Chloe Parker	set Maria Drapp	+0.2
4	2-2	BRAD	W ILL	Kill	Georgia Haynes	set Jaleah Bauss	+0.3
5	2-3	W ILL	BRAD	Serve err	W ILL server		+0.2
6	3-3	BRAD	W ILL×3	Attack err	Mairen Mannon		+0.3
7	4-3	W ILL	W ILL×3	Attack err	Chloe Parker		+0.4
8	5-3	W ILL	W ILL×3	Kill	Ashlee Markert		+0.5
9	5-4	W ILL	BRAD	Kill	Lauren Dale	set Maria Drapp	+0.3
10	6-4	BRAD	W ILL	Kill	Emilia Kouri	set Alysia Perez	+0.4
11	6-5	W ILL	BRAD×3	Kill	Maria Drapp		+0.3
12	6-6	BRAD	BRAD×3	Kill	Mairen Mannon		+0.4
13	6-7	BRAD	BRAD×3	Kill	Gracie Furlong	set Maria Drapp	+0.4
14	7-7	BRAD	W ILL	Kill	Ashlee Markert	set Alysia Perez	+0.3
15	7-8	W ILL	BRAD	Kill	Gracie Furlong	set Maria Drapp	+0.3
16	8-8	BRAD	W ILL	Kill	Hillary Estes	set Jaleah Bauss	+0.3
17	8-9	W ILL	BRAD×3	Attack err	Hillary Estes		+0.3
18	8-10	BRAD	BRAD×3	Bad set	Jaleah Bauss		+0.4
19	8-11	BRAD	BRAD×3	Attack err	Kennedy Adair		+0.3
20	9-11	BRAD	W ILL	Kill	Georgia Haynes	set Jaleah Bauss	+0.2
21	10-11	W ILL	W ILL	Attack err	Adeline Goedheer		+0.4
22	10-12	W ILL	BRAD×3	Kill	Gracie Furlong	set Maria Drapp	+0.3
23	10-13	BRAD	BRAD×3	Kill	Lauren Dale	set Gracie Furlong	+0.3
24	10-14	BRAD	BRAD×3	Attack err	Georgia Haynes		+0.2
25	11-14	BRAD	W ILL	Kill	Maria Eduarda Pereira Tonella	set Jaleah Bauss	+0.2
26	11-15	W ILL	BRAD	Attack err	Maria Eduarda Pereira Tonella	blk Adeline Goedheer, Lauren Dale	+0.2
27	12-15	BRAD	W ILL	Serve err	BRAD server		+0.2
28	13-15	W ILL	W ILL	Attack err	Mairen Mannon	blk Maria Eduarda Pereira Tonella	+0.3
29	13-16	W ILL	BRAD	Kill	Chloe Parker	set Maria Drapp	+0.3
30	14-16	BRAD	W ILL×3	Kill	Ashlee Markert	set Alysia Perez	+0.3
31	15-16	W ILL	W ILL×3	Ace	W ILL server	aced Eirini Bitsaktsi	+0.5
32	16-16	W ILL	W ILL×3	Ace	W ILL server	aced Megan DePoorter	+0.7
33	16-17	W ILL	BRAD×4	Kill	Lauren Dale	set Maria Drapp	+0.5
34	16-18	BRAD	BRAD×4	Kill	Gracie Furlong	set Maria Drapp	+0.6
35	16-19	BRAD	BRAD×4	Kill	Gracie Furlong	set Megan DePoorter	+0.4
36	16-20	BRAD	BRAD×4	Kill	Maria Drapp	set Megan DePoorter	+0.3
37	17-20	BRAD	W ILL×4	Serve err	BRAD server		+0.2
38	18-20	W ILL	W ILL×4	Attack err	Maria Drapp		+0.4
39	19-20	W ILL	W ILL×4	Kill	Georgia Haynes	set Jaleah Bauss	+0.6
40	20-20	W ILL	W ILL×4	Attack err	Gracie Furlong	blk Hillary Estes, Maria Eduarda Pereira Tonella	+1.0
41	20-21	W ILL	BRAD×3	Kill	Gracie Furlong	set Maria Drapp	+0.7
42	20-22	BRAD	BRAD×3	Attack err	Hillary Estes		+0.8
43	20-23	BRAD	BRAD×3	Attack err	Georgia Haynes		+0.6
44	21-23	BRAD	W ILL	Serve err	BRAD server		+0.3
45	21-24	W ILL	BRAD	Kill	Gracie Furlong	set Maria Drapp	+0.4
46	21-25	BRAD	BRAD	Attack err	Hillary Estes		+0.2
Set 3
1	1-0	W ILL	W ILL	Kill	Georgia Haynes	set Jaleah Bauss	+0.2
2	1-1	W ILL	BRAD	Kill	Adeline Goedheer	set Maria Drapp	+0.1
3	1-2	BRAD	BRAD	Kill	Gracie Furlong	set Eirini Bitsaktsi	+0.1
4	2-2	BRAD	W ILL	Attack err	Adeline Goedheer		+0.1
5	2-3	W ILL	BRAD	Kill	Chloe Parker	set Maria Drapp	+0.1
6	3-3	BRAD	W ILL	Kill	Jaleah Bauss	set Kennedy Adair	+0.1
7	3-4	W ILL	BRAD×3	Serve err	W ILL server		+0.1
8	3-5	BRAD	BRAD×3	Kill	Mairen Mannon		+0.1
9	3-6	BRAD	BRAD×3	Attack err	Kennedy Adair	blk Mairen Mannon, Chloe Parker	+0.1
10	4-6	BRAD	W ILL	Serve err	BRAD server		+0.1
11	4-7	W ILL	BRAD	Kill	Mairen Mannon	set Maria Drapp	+0.1
12	5-7	BRAD	W ILL×3	Kill	Emilia Kouri	set Alysia Perez	+0.1
13	6-7	W ILL	W ILL×3	Ace	W ILL server	aced Megan DePoorter	+0.2
14	7-7	W ILL	W ILL×3	Kill	Maria Eduarda Pereira Tonella	set Emilia Kouri	+0.2
15	7-8	W ILL	BRAD×3	Serve err	W ILL server		+0.1
16	7-9	BRAD	BRAD×3	Kill	Mairen Mannon	set Maria Drapp	+0.2
17	7-10	BRAD	BRAD×3	Attack err	Ashlee Markert		+0.1
18	8-10	BRAD	W ILL	Kill	Maria Eduarda Pereira Tonella	set Alysia Perez	+0.1
19	8-11	W ILL	BRAD×3	Kill	Gracie Furlong	set Maria Drapp	+0.1
20	8-12	BRAD	BRAD×3	Ace	BRAD server	aced Ashlee Markert	+0.1
21	8-13	BRAD	BRAD×3	Ace	BRAD server	aced Ashlee Markert	+0.1
22	9-13	BRAD	W ILL	Kill	Ashlee Markert	set Jaleah Bauss	+0.1
23	10-13	W ILL	W ILL	Kill	Georgia Haynes	set Jaleah Bauss	+0.1
24	10-14	W ILL	BRAD	Attack err	Kennedy Adair		+0.1
25	11-14	BRAD	W ILL	Attack err	Gracie Furlong		+0.1
26	11-15	W ILL	BRAD	Attack err	Georgia Haynes	blk Adeline Goedheer, Gracie Furlong	+0.1
27	12-15	BRAD	W ILL	Kill	Kennedy Adair	set Jaleah Bauss	+0.1
28	12-16	W ILL	BRAD	Serve err	W ILL server		+0.1
29	12-17	BRAD	BRAD	Ace	BRAD server	aced Melaina Hawblitzel	+0.1
30	13-17	BRAD	W ILL	Serve err	BRAD server		+0.1
31	13-18	W ILL	BRAD×3	Kill	Lauren Dale	set Maria Drapp	+0.1
32	13-19	BRAD	BRAD×3	Kill	Lauren Dale	set Maria Drapp	+0.1
33	13-20	BRAD	BRAD×3	Bad set	Jaleah Bauss		+0.0
34	14-20	BRAD	W ILL	Kill	Hillary Estes	set Madelyn Norton	+0.0
35	15-20	W ILL	W ILL	Kill	Emilia Kouri	set Madelyn Norton	+0.0
36	15-21	W ILL	BRAD	Kill	Maria Drapp	set Megan DePoorter	+0.0
37	15-22	BRAD	BRAD	Ace	BRAD server	aced Kennedy Adair	+0.0
38	16-22	BRAD	W ILL	Serve err	BRAD server		+0.0
39	16-23	W ILL	BRAD	Kill	Trixie Carroll	set Maria Drapp	+0.0
40	17-23	BRAD	W ILL	Kill	Ashlee Markert	set Jaleah Bauss	+0.0
41	18-23	W ILL	W ILL	Attack err	Trixie Carroll	blk Audrey Pender, Maria Eduarda Pereira Tonella	+0.0
42	18-24	W ILL	BRAD	Kill	Trixie Carroll	set Maria Drapp	+0.0
43	19-24	BRAD	W ILL×4	Attack err	Trixie Carroll	blk Audrey Pender, Maria Eduarda Pereira Tonella	+0.0
44	20-24	W ILL	W ILL×4	Attack err	Adeline Goedheer		+0.0
45	21-24	W ILL	W ILL×4	Attack err	Adeline Goedheer		+0.0
46	22-24	W ILL	W ILL×4	Kill	Audrey Pender	set Jaleah Bauss	+0.1
47	22-25	W ILL	BRAD	Kill	Gracie Furlong	set Maria Drapp	+0.2

Score shown after each rally, Western Ill. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.