FinalFri, Sep 11, 2026

AwayOVC

0:3

HomeMVC

Illinois St. def. Western Ill. 3–0

(25-17, 25-13, 26-24)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
W ILL	17	13	24	0
ILL ST	25	25	26	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

ILL ST above 50 · W ILL below

Biggest swing: 0.8% to Western Ill. — set 1, W ILL 4-1 ILL ST. Bad set by Ella Craggs. ILL ST win probability 94% → 94%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

W ILL 4.2%95.8% ILL ST

Western Ill. wins

3-0

0.5%

3-1

1.2%

3-2

2.6%

Illinois St. wins

3-0

57.9%

3-1

28.9%

3-2

9.0%

W ILL break %: 37.0% vs this opp
ILL ST break %: 50.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Ella CraggsBad set+0.8%
Bad set by Ella Craggs
Set 1 · W ILL 4-1 ILL ST · W ILL 6% → 6%
02
Oliwia CaputaAttack error+0.8%
Oliwia Caputa stuffed by Georgia Haynes & Hillary Estes
Set 3 · W ILL 24-24 ILL ST · W ILL 0% → 1%
03
Georgia HaynesKill+0.7%
Kill by Georgia Haynes (set by Grace Ulatowski)
Set 1 · W ILL 3-1 ILL ST · W ILL 5% → 6%
04
Abby ReckKill+0.7%
Kill by Abby Reck
Set 1 · W ILL 4-3 ILL ST · ILL ST 94% → 95%
05
Logan GrevengoedKill+0.7%
Kill by Logan Grevengoed (set by Peyton Turner)
Set 1 · W ILL 6-6 ILL ST · ILL ST 95% → 95%
06
ILL ST serverService error+0.7%
Illinois St. service error
Set 1 · W ILL 6-4 ILL ST · W ILL 5% → 6%
07
Ashlee MarkertKill+0.6%
Kill by Ashlee Markert (set by Jaleah Bauss)
Set 1 · W ILL 5-3 ILL ST · W ILL 5% → 6%
08
Oliwia CaputaKill+0.6%
Kill by Oliwia Caputa (set by Ella Craggs)
Set 3 · W ILL 22-23 ILL ST · ILL ST 99% → 99%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Western Ill.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
12Kennedy AdairOH	3	4	6	21	-.095	0	1	2	5	1	0	0	0	5
8Ashlee MarkertOH	3	4	3	15	.067	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	1	5
9Hillary EstesMB	3	4	1	13	.231	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
1Georgia HaynesOH	3	2	2	12	.000	0	1	2	4	0	0	3	1.5	4.5
15Jaleah BaussS	3	2	0	4	.500	12	1	1	8	0	0	0	0	3
10Maria Eduarda Pereira TonellaMB	2	2	0	2	1.000	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	2
5Grace UlatowskiOH	3	0	0	0	–	2	1	2	3	0	0	0	0	1
16Melaina HawblitzelOH	3	0	0	2	.000	0	0	3	2	2	0	0	0	0
4Karlie LaneL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	5	5	0	0	0	0
17Emilia KouriOH	2	3	2	9	.111	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	3
6Madelyn NortonS	2	0	0	0	–	5	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
3Audrey PenderOH	1	2	0	5	.400	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
18Martyna SowiakMB	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
11Jacqueline AdairOH	1	0	1	8	-.125	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		24	15	92	.098	20	4	11	36	12	1	6	4	54

Illinois St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
11Jillian GregoryOH	3	6	2	22	.182	0	3	1	2	1	0	1	0.5	9.5
6Logan GrevengoedMB	3	6	0	11	.545	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	2	8
1Ruth ZieglerOPP	3	5	2	7	.429	0	2	5	1	0	0	0	0	7
16Abby ReckOH	3	6	0	11	.545	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
9Ella CraggsS	3	1	0	1	1.000	15	3	2	3	0	0	0	0	4
2Emilija ArsicOH	2	3	2	10	.100	0	2	1	7	1	0	0	0	5
15Addisyn PohlMB	3	6	2	13	.308	0	0	0	1	0	1	5	3.5	9.5
10Oliwia CaputaOH	3	2	1	4	.250	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	2
5Samantha BunchS	3	1	0	1	1.000	0	1	2	8	0	0	0	0	2
17Peyton TurnerDS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	7	0	0	0	0	0
21Audrey ClarkS	2	0	0	0	–	9	1	1	4	0	0	0	0	1
14Jillian FerrillOH	2	0	2	5	-.400	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	0.5
12Ellie BurrL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0
3Ella KohnenS	1	0	0	0	–	3	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		36	11	85	.294	29	12	13	43	4	1	12	7	76

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 W ILL · ILL ST 7

Set 1

17-25

Longest run 4 W ILLILL ST 6

Set 2

13-25

Longest run 3 W ILLILL ST 7

Set 3

24-26

Longest run 4 W ILLILL ST 4

Bars above the line = Illinois St. leads, below = Western Ill. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Western Ill.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	70%7/10	38%3/8
2	47%7/15	36%4/11
3	67%6/9	42%5/12
4	36%5/14	14%1/7
5	36%5/14	17%1/6
6	31%4/13	55%6/11
All	45%34/75	36%20/55

Illinois St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	64%7/11	60%9/15
2	70%7/10	42%5/12
3	67%6/9	40%4/10
4	86%6/7	63%10/16
5	56%5/9	58%7/12
6	44%4/9	60%6/10
All	64%35/55	55%41/75

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

130 rallies

Rally log

#	W ILL-ILL ST	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	ILL ST	ILL ST	Ace	ILL ST server	aced Ashlee Markert	+0.5
2	1-1	ILL ST	W ILL×4	Kill	Georgia Haynes	set Jaleah Bauss	+0.4
3	2-1	W ILL	W ILL×4	Ace	W ILL server	aced Team	+0.6
4	3-1	W ILL	W ILL×4	Kill	Georgia Haynes	set Grace Ulatowski	+0.7
5	4-1	W ILL	W ILL×4	Bad set	Ella Craggs		+0.8
6	4-2	W ILL	ILL ST	Kill	Ruth Ziegler	set Ella Craggs	+0.5
7	4-3	ILL ST	ILL ST	Kill	Abby Reck		+0.7
8	5-3	ILL ST	W ILL	Kill	Ashlee Markert	set Jaleah Bauss	+0.6
9	5-4	W ILL	ILL ST	Kill	Ruth Ziegler	set Ella Craggs	+0.5
10	6-4	ILL ST	W ILL	Serve err	ILL ST server		+0.7
11	6-5	W ILL	ILL ST×6	Kill	Emilija Arsic	set Ella Craggs	+0.6
12	6-6	ILL ST	ILL ST×6	Kill	Logan Grevengoed	set Peyton Turner	+0.7
13	6-7	ILL ST	ILL ST×6	Attack err	Ashlee Markert	blk Logan Grevengoed, Addisyn Pohl	+0.6
14	6-8	ILL ST	ILL ST×6	Kill	Addisyn Pohl	set Audrey Clark	+0.5
15	6-9	ILL ST	ILL ST×6	Bad set	Jaleah Bauss		+0.4
16	6-10	ILL ST	ILL ST×6	Attack err	Ashlee Markert	blk Addisyn Pohl, Logan Grevengoed	+0.3
17	7-10	ILL ST	W ILL	Kill	Hillary Estes	set Jaleah Bauss	+0.3
18	7-11	W ILL	ILL ST×6	Serve err	W ILL server		+0.3
19	7-12	ILL ST	ILL ST×6	Attack err	Kennedy Adair	blk Addisyn Pohl	+0.3
20	7-13	ILL ST	ILL ST×6	Attack err	Kennedy Adair		+0.2
21	7-14	ILL ST	ILL ST×6	Ace	ILL ST server	aced Melaina Hawblitzel	+0.1
22	7-15	ILL ST	ILL ST×6	Attack err	Kennedy Adair	blk Addisyn Pohl, Logan Grevengoed	+0.1
23	7-16	ILL ST	ILL ST×6	Kill	Logan Grevengoed	set Audrey Clark	+0.0
24	8-16	ILL ST	W ILL	Kill	Hillary Estes	set Jaleah Bauss	+0.0
25	9-16	W ILL	W ILL	Ace	W ILL server	aced Emilija Arsic	+0.1
26	9-17	W ILL	ILL ST	Kill	Jillian Gregory	set Audrey Clark	+0.1
27	10-17	ILL ST	W ILL	Kill	Maria Eduarda Pereira Tonella	set Jaleah Bauss	+0.0
28	10-18	W ILL	ILL ST	Kill	Ruth Ziegler	set Audrey Clark	+0.0
29	11-18	ILL ST	W ILL	Attack err	Jillian Gregory		+0.0
30	11-19	W ILL	ILL ST	Kill	Jillian Gregory	set Ella Craggs	+0.0
31	11-20	ILL ST	ILL ST	Kill	Jillian Gregory	set Ella Craggs	+0.0
32	12-20	ILL ST	W ILL	Serve err	ILL ST server		+0.0
33	12-21	W ILL	ILL ST	Kill	Ella Craggs		+0.0
34	13-21	ILL ST	W ILL	Serve err	ILL ST server		+0.0
35	14-21	W ILL	W ILL	Ace	W ILL server	aced Jillian Ferrill	+0.0
36	14-22	W ILL	ILL ST	Serve err	W ILL server		+0.0
37	15-22	ILL ST	W ILL	Kill	Hillary Estes	set Jaleah Bauss	+0.0
38	15-23	W ILL	ILL ST	Kill	Addisyn Pohl	set Audrey Clark	+0.0
39	15-24	ILL ST	ILL ST	Attack err	Kennedy Adair		+0.0
40	16-24	ILL ST	W ILL	Kill	Hillary Estes	set Jaleah Bauss	+0.0
41	17-24	W ILL	W ILL	Kill	Maria Eduarda Pereira Tonella		+0.0
42	17-25	W ILL	ILL ST	Kill	Logan Grevengoed	set Audrey Clark	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	W ILL	ILL ST	Kill	Samantha Bunch		+0.2
2	1-1	ILL ST	W ILL	Serve err	ILL ST server		+0.3
3	1-2	W ILL	ILL ST×4	Kill	Emilija Arsic	set Ella Craggs	+0.2
4	1-3	ILL ST	ILL ST×4	Attack err	Georgia Haynes		+0.3
5	1-4	ILL ST	ILL ST×4	Kill	Addisyn Pohl		+0.2
6	1-5	ILL ST	ILL ST×4	Ace	ILL ST server	aced Kennedy Adair	+0.2
7	2-5	ILL ST	W ILL	Serve err	ILL ST server		+0.1
8	2-6	W ILL	ILL ST	Serve err	W ILL server		+0.1
9	3-6	ILL ST	W ILL	Kill	Kennedy Adair	set Jaleah Bauss	+0.1
10	3-7	W ILL	ILL ST	Serve err	W ILL server		+0.1
11	4-7	ILL ST	W ILL	Serve err	ILL ST server		+0.2
12	4-8	W ILL	ILL ST×4	Kill	Jillian Gregory	set Audrey Clark	+0.2
13	4-9	ILL ST	ILL ST×4	Attack err	Kennedy Adair		+0.2
14	4-10	ILL ST	ILL ST×4	Ace	ILL ST server	aced Karlie Lane	+0.1
15	4-11	ILL ST	ILL ST×4	Kill	Emilija Arsic	set Ella Craggs	+0.1
16	5-11	ILL ST	W ILL×3	Serve err	ILL ST server		+0.1
17	6-11	W ILL	W ILL×3	Kill	Emilia Kouri	set Grace Ulatowski	+0.1
18	7-11	W ILL	W ILL×3	Bad set	Samantha Bunch		+0.2
19	7-12	W ILL	ILL ST×7	Serve err	W ILL server		+0.1
20	7-13	ILL ST	ILL ST×7	Kill	Abby Reck	set Ella Craggs	+0.1
21	7-14	ILL ST	ILL ST×7	Attack err	Jacqueline Adair		+0.1
22	7-15	ILL ST	ILL ST×7	Kill	Ruth Ziegler	set Madelyn Norton	+0.1
23	7-16	ILL ST	ILL ST×7	Ace	ILL ST server	aced Melaina Hawblitzel	+0.0
24	7-17	ILL ST	ILL ST×7	Ace	ILL ST server	aced Team	+0.0
25	7-18	ILL ST	ILL ST×7	Bad set	Karlie Lane		+0.0
26	8-18	ILL ST	W ILL	Kill	Martyna Sowiak	set Madelyn Norton	+0.0
27	8-19	W ILL	ILL ST	Kill	Ruth Ziegler	set Ella Craggs	+0.0
28	9-19	ILL ST	W ILL	Serve err	ILL ST server		+0.0
29	9-20	W ILL	ILL ST	Kill	Logan Grevengoed	set Ella Craggs	+0.0
30	10-20	ILL ST	W ILL×3	Attack err	Emilija Arsic	blk Georgia Haynes, Martyna Sowiak	+0.0
31	11-20	W ILL	W ILL×3	Kill	Jaleah Bauss	set Jaleah Bauss	+0.0
32	12-20	W ILL	W ILL×3	Attack err	Emilija Arsic	blk Ashlee Markert	+0.0
33	12-21	W ILL	ILL ST×3	Kill	Logan Grevengoed	set Audrey Clark	+0.0
34	12-22	ILL ST	ILL ST×3	Ace	ILL ST server	aced Jacqueline Adair	+0.0
35	12-23	ILL ST	ILL ST×3	Attack err	Hillary Estes		+0.0
36	13-23	ILL ST	W ILL	Serve err	ILL ST server		+0.0
37	13-24	W ILL	ILL ST	Kill	Jillian Gregory	set Audrey Clark	+0.0
38	13-25	ILL ST	ILL ST	Ace	ILL ST server	aced Karlie Lane	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	ILL ST	ILL ST	Kill	Abby Reck		+0.1
2	1-1	ILL ST	W ILL	Kill	Kennedy Adair	set Jaleah Bauss	+0.1
3	1-2	W ILL	ILL ST	Attack err	Georgia Haynes	blk Jillian Ferrill, Abby Reck	+0.1
4	2-2	ILL ST	W ILL	Serve err	ILL ST server		+0.1
5	2-3	W ILL	ILL ST	Serve err	W ILL server		+0.1
6	3-3	ILL ST	W ILL	Kill	Jaleah Bauss		+0.1
7	3-4	W ILL	ILL ST	Kill	Logan Grevengoed	set Ella Kohnen	+0.1
8	4-4	ILL ST	W ILL	Kill	Emilia Kouri	set Madelyn Norton	+0.1
9	5-4	W ILL	W ILL	Kill	Emilia Kouri	set Madelyn Norton	+0.2
10	5-5	W ILL	ILL ST	Serve err	W ILL server		+0.1
11	6-5	ILL ST	W ILL	Attack err	Addisyn Pohl		+0.2
12	7-5	W ILL	W ILL	Attack err	Addisyn Pohl		+0.2
13	7-6	W ILL	ILL ST	Attack err	Emilia Kouri	blk Addisyn Pohl, Jillian Gregory	+0.2
14	8-6	ILL ST	W ILL	Serve err	ILL ST server		+0.2
15	8-7	W ILL	ILL ST	Kill	Abby Reck	set Ella Craggs	+0.2
16	8-8	ILL ST	ILL ST	Ace	ILL ST server	aced Karlie Lane	+0.2
17	9-8	ILL ST	W ILL	Attack err	Jillian Ferrill		+0.2
18	10-8	W ILL	W ILL	Attack err	Ruth Ziegler		+0.3
19	10-9	W ILL	ILL ST	Serve err	W ILL server		+0.2
20	10-10	ILL ST	ILL ST	Ace	ILL ST server	aced Karlie Lane	+0.2
21	11-10	ILL ST	W ILL×3	Kill	Audrey Pender	set Jaleah Bauss	+0.2
22	12-10	W ILL	W ILL×3	Kill	Ashlee Markert	set Jaleah Bauss	+0.3
23	13-10	W ILL	W ILL×3	Attack err	Jillian Ferrill		+0.3
24	13-11	W ILL	ILL ST	Kill	Abby Reck	set Ella Craggs	+0.2
25	14-11	ILL ST	W ILL	Serve err	ILL ST server		+0.3
26	14-12	W ILL	ILL ST×4	Kill	Addisyn Pohl	set Ella Kohnen	+0.2
27	14-13	ILL ST	ILL ST×4	Kill	Jillian Gregory	set Peyton Turner	+0.3
28	14-14	ILL ST	ILL ST×4	Attack err	Emilia Kouri	blk Addisyn Pohl, Logan Grevengoed	+0.3
29	14-15	ILL ST	ILL ST×4	Attack err	Ashlee Markert		+0.3
30	15-15	ILL ST	W ILL	Kill	Ashlee Markert	set Madelyn Norton	+0.2
31	15-16	W ILL	ILL ST	Serve err	W ILL server		+0.2
32	16-16	ILL ST	W ILL	Serve err	ILL ST server		+0.2
33	17-16	W ILL	W ILL	Attack err	Ruth Ziegler		+0.4
34	17-17	W ILL	ILL ST×4	Kill	Addisyn Pohl	set Ella Kohnen	+0.3
35	17-18	ILL ST	ILL ST×4	Attack err	Kennedy Adair		+0.3
36	17-19	ILL ST	ILL ST×4	Ace	ILL ST server	aced Team	+0.3
37	17-20	ILL ST	ILL ST×4	Kill	Abby Reck	set Ella Craggs	+0.2
38	18-20	ILL ST	W ILL×4	Kill	Audrey Pender	set Madelyn Norton	+0.1
39	19-20	W ILL	W ILL×4	Kill	Kennedy Adair	set Audrey Pender	+0.3
40	20-20	W ILL	W ILL×4	Ace	W ILL server	aced Jillian Gregory	+0.4
41	21-20	W ILL	W ILL×4	Attack err	Jillian Gregory	blk Audrey Pender, Georgia Haynes	+0.6
42	21-21	W ILL	ILL ST	Serve err	W ILL server		+0.4
43	22-21	ILL ST	W ILL	Kill	Kennedy Adair	set Jillian Gregory	+0.5
44	22-22	W ILL	ILL ST×3	Serve err	W ILL server		+0.5
45	22-23	ILL ST	ILL ST×3	Kill	Oliwia Caputa	set Ella Craggs	+0.6
46	22-24	ILL ST	ILL ST×3	Ace	ILL ST server	aced Karlie Lane	+0.5
47	23-24	ILL ST	W ILL	Kill	Ashlee Markert	set Jaleah Bauss	+0.2
48	24-24	W ILL	W ILL	Attack err	Oliwia Caputa	blk Georgia Haynes, Hillary Estes	+0.8
49	24-25	W ILL	ILL ST	Kill	Oliwia Caputa	set Ella Craggs	+0.6
50	24-26	ILL ST	ILL ST	Kill	Addisyn Pohl	set Jaleah Bauss	+0.6

Score shown after each rally, Western Ill. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.