FinalFri, Sep 18, 2026

AwayOVC

0:3

HomeHORIZON

Green Bay def. Western Ill. 3–0

(25-16, 25-19, 25-13)

Set	1*	2	3*	Sets
W ILL	16	19	13	0
GRNBAY	25	25	25	3

* Set 1: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.
* Set 3: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.

RallyIQ model

Win probability

GRNBAY above 50 · W ILL below

Biggest swing: 0.8% to Western Ill. — set 2, W ILL 11-7 GRNBAY. Attack error by Diane Pichelman. GRNBAY win probability 95% → 94%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

W ILL 5.2%94.8% GRNBAY

Western Ill. wins

3-0

0.6%

3-1

1.5%

3-2

3.2%

Green Bay wins

3-0

54.8%

3-1

29.9%

3-2

10.1%

W ILL break %: 38.2% vs this opp
GRNBAY break %: 50.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Diane PichelmanAttack error+0.8%
Attack error by Diane Pichelman
Set 2 · W ILL 11-7 GRNBAY · W ILL 5% → 6%
02
Kirsten FishAttack error+0.8%
Attack error by Kirsten Fish
Set 2 · W ILL 14-13 GRNBAY · W ILL 3% → 4%
03
Emilia KouriKill+0.8%
Kill by Emilia Kouri (set by Alysia Perez)
Set 2 · W ILL 10-7 GRNBAY · W ILL 4% → 5%
04
Kirsten FishAttack error+0.7%
Attack error by Kirsten Fish
Set 1 · W ILL 2-1 GRNBAY · W ILL 5% → 6%
05
Kirsten FishKill+0.7%
Kill by Kirsten Fish (set by Alexa Hernandez)
Set 2 · W ILL 12-10 GRNBAY · GRNBAY 95% → 95%
06
Emilia KouriAttack error+0.7%
Attack error by Emilia Kouri
Set 2 · W ILL 12-11 GRNBAY · GRNBAY 95% → 96%
07
GRNBAY serverService error+0.7%
Green Bay service error
Set 2 · W ILL 12-8 GRNBAY · W ILL 5% → 6%
08
Ashlee MarkertKill+0.7%
Kill by Ashlee Markert (set by Alysia Perez)
Set 2 · W ILL 9-7 GRNBAY · W ILL 3% → 4%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Western Ill.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
12Kennedy AdairOH	3	7	1	20	.300	1	0	0	3	2	0	1	0.5	7.5
8Ashlee MarkertOH	3	4	10	26	-.231	0	1	2	6	0	0	0	0	5
3Audrey PenderOH	3	4	1	6	.500	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	5
9Hillary EstesMB	3	3	1	9	.222	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	4
1Georgia HaynesOH	3	3	2	10	.100	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
15Jaleah BaussS	3	0	0	2	.000	10	0	2	3	0	0	0	0	0
17Emilia KouriOH	3	4	3	21	.048	0	0	0	3	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
14Alysia PerezS	3	0	1	1	-1.000	8	2	1	6	0	0	0	0	2
11Jacqueline AdairOH	3	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
5Grace UlatowskiOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	0
4Karlie LaneL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	11	2	0	0	0	0
6Madelyn NortonS	3	0	0	0	–	5	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0
7Maria eduarda Oliveira da silva frizzoOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10Maria eduarda Pereira tonellaMB	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18Martyna SowiakMB	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16Melaina HawblitzelOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		25	19	96	.063	25	4	7	44	7	1	2	2	48

Green Bayhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
10Diane PichelmanMB	3	8	1	15	.467	0	3	1	1	0	0	2	1	12
5Olivia NeumannMB	3	8	2	15	.400	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	2.5	10.5
17Kelsey JustmanOH	3	7	1	20	.300	1	1	0	6	1	0	1	0.5	8.5
11Kirsten FishOH	3	5	4	17	.059	0	0	0	3	0	1	4	3	8
21Alexa HernandezS	3	4	1	8	.375	28	1	0	4	0	0	2	1	6
12Kendall ScharaOH	3	1	0	1	1.000	0	2	1	3	0	0	0	0	3
16Gillian KoningOH	3	3	1	12	.167	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	3
6Kayla BirminghamOH	3	3	1	10	.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
8Alexis GardnerL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18Ambryn AanonsenOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13Eva SwensonS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20Jessica KurpeikisOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4Kennedy SchmitzL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	3	11	1	0	0	0	0
2Macy KlineL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	3	8	2	0	0	0	0
7Riley SchmitzL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14Sari MarksS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3Taylor NeuenschwanderMB	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9Victoria KurilovMB	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		39	11	98	.286	32	7	8	37	4	1	14	8	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 W ILL · GRNBAY 6

Set 1*

16-25

Longest run 2 W ILLGRNBAY 4

Set 2

19-25

Longest run 4 W ILLGRNBAY 5

Set 3*

13-25

Longest run 3 W ILLGRNBAY 6

Bars above the line = Green Bay leads, below = Western Ill. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Western Ill.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	40%2/5	50%1/2
2	50%2/4	33%1/3
3	50%2/4	50%2/4
4	67%2/3	50%2/4
5	25%1/4	60%3/5
6	20%1/5	0%0/1
All	40%10/25	47%9/19

Green Bay

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	67%2/3	60%3/5
2	50%2/4	50%2/4
3	50%2/4	50%2/4
4	40%2/5	33%1/3
5	100%1/1	75%3/4
6	50%1/2	80%4/5
All	53%10/19	60%15/25

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (1 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

123 rallies

Rally log

#	W ILL-GRNBAY	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	W ILL	GRNBAY	Kill	Olivia Neumann	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.4
2	1-1	GRNBAY	W ILL	Kill	Ashlee Markert	set Jaleah Bauss	+0.5
3	2-1	W ILL	W ILL	Attack err	Kirsten Fish		+0.7
4	2-2	W ILL	GRNBAY	Kill	Kendall Schara		+0.5
5	2-3	GRNBAY	GRNBAY	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.6
6	3-3	GRNBAY	W ILL	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.5
7	3-4	W ILL	GRNBAY	Ace	W ILL server	aced Kennedy Adair	+0.5
8	4-4	GRNBAY	W ILL	Kill	Kennedy Adair	set Jaleah Bauss	+0.6
9	4-5	W ILL	GRNBAY×4	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.5
10	4-6	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×4	Attack err	Gillian Koning		+0.6
11	4-7	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×4	Kill	Gillian Koning	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.5
12	4-8	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×4	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.4
13	5-8	GRNBAY	W ILL	Attack err	Olivia Neumann	blk Audrey Pender, Kennedy Adair	+0.3
14	5-9	W ILL	GRNBAY×4	Attack err	Ashlee Markert	set Grace Ulatowski	+0.3
15	5-10	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×4	Kill	Gillian Koning	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.3
16	5-11	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×4	Kill	Olivia Neumann	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.2
17	5-12	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×4	Attack err	Audrey Pender	blk Kirsten Fish, Olivia Neumann	+0.2
18	6-12	GRNBAY	W ILL	Kill	Ashlee Markert	set Madelyn Norton	+0.1
19	6-13	W ILL	GRNBAY×3	Kill	Olivia Neumann	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.1
20	6-14	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×3	Attack err	Ashlee Markert	blk Kirsten Fish, Olivia Neumann	+0.1
21	6-15	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×3	Kill	Kirsten Fish	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.1
22	7-15	GRNBAY	W ILL	Kill	Emilia Kouri	set Madelyn Norton	+0.0
23	8-15	W ILL	W ILL	Attack err	Olivia Neumann		+0.1
24	8-16	W ILL	GRNBAY×3	Kill	Kelsey Justman	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.1
25	8-17	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×3	Kill	Diane Pichelman	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.1
26	8-18	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×3	Attack err	Georgia Haynes	blk Kirsten Fish	+0.0
27	9-18	GRNBAY	W ILL	Kill	Hillary Estes	set Jaleah Bauss	+0.0
28	9-19	W ILL	GRNBAY	Serve err	W ILL server		+0.0
29	10-19	GRNBAY	W ILL	Serve err	GRNBAY server		+0.0
30	11-19	W ILL	W ILL	Attack err	Alexa Hernandez	blk Audrey Pender	+0.0
31	11-20	W ILL	GRNBAY	Kill	Diane Pichelman	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.0
32	12-20	GRNBAY	W ILL	Kill	Kennedy Adair	set Karlie Lane	+0.0
33	13-20	W ILL	W ILL	Attack err	Gillian Koning		+0.0
34	13-21	W ILL	GRNBAY	Kill	Diane Pichelman	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.0
35	13-22	GRNBAY	GRNBAY	Ace	GRNBAY server	aced Kennedy Adair	+0.0
36	14-22	GRNBAY	W ILL	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.0
37	15-22	W ILL	W ILL	Kill	Olivia Neumann	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.0
38	15-23	W ILL	GRNBAY	Kill	Madelyn Norton		+0.0
39	15-24	GRNBAY	GRNBAY	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.0
40	16-24	GRNBAY	W ILL	Kill	Emilia Kouri	set Madelyn Norton	+0.0
41	16-25	W ILL	GRNBAY	Kill	Kirsten Fish	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	GRNBAY	W ILL	Serve err	GRNBAY server		+0.4
2	1-1	W ILL	GRNBAY	Kill	Kelsey Justman	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.3
3	1-2	GRNBAY	GRNBAY	Attack err	Kennedy Adair		+0.4
4	2-2	GRNBAY	W ILL×3	Serve err	GRNBAY server		+0.3
5	3-2	W ILL	W ILL×3	Kill	Georgia Haynes	set Jaleah Bauss	+0.5
6	4-2	W ILL	W ILL×3	Ace	W ILL server	aced Kelsey Justman	+0.6
7	4-3	W ILL	GRNBAY×3	Serve err	W ILL server		+0.4
8	4-4	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×3	Kill	Kelsey Justman		+0.5
9	4-5	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×3	Kill	Diane Pichelman	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.4
10	5-5	GRNBAY	W ILL×3	Kill	Audrey Pender	set Jaleah Bauss	+0.4
11	6-5	W ILL	W ILL×3	Ace	W ILL server	aced Kennedy Schmitz	+0.6
12	7-5	W ILL	W ILL×3	Ace	W ILL server	aced Macy Kline	+0.6
13	7-6	W ILL	GRNBAY	Kill	Kelsey Justman	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.4
14	7-7	GRNBAY	GRNBAY	Attack err	Emilia Kouri	blk Diane Pichelman, Alexa Hernandez	+0.5
15	8-7	GRNBAY	W ILL×4	Kill	Kennedy Adair	set Alysia Perez	+0.5
16	9-7	W ILL	W ILL×4	Kill	Ashlee Markert	set Alysia Perez	+0.7
17	10-7	W ILL	W ILL×4	Kill	Emilia Kouri	set Alysia Perez	+0.8
18	11-7	W ILL	W ILL×4	Attack err	Diane Pichelman		+0.8
19	11-8	W ILL	GRNBAY	Serve err	W ILL server		+0.5
20	12-8	GRNBAY	W ILL	Serve err	GRNBAY server		+0.7
21	12-9	W ILL	GRNBAY×5	Kill	Alexa Hernandez	set Gillian Koning	+0.5
22	12-10	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×5	Kill	Kirsten Fish	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.7
23	12-11	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×5	Attack err	Emilia Kouri		+0.7
24	12-12	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×5	Attack err	Ashlee Markert	blk Kirsten Fish, Olivia Neumann	+0.7
25	12-13	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×5	Ace	GRNBAY server	aced Karlie Lane	+0.6
26	13-13	GRNBAY	W ILL	Kill	Ashlee Markert	set Alysia Perez	+0.6
27	14-13	W ILL	W ILL	Attack err	Kirsten Fish		+0.8
28	14-14	W ILL	GRNBAY×4	Serve err	W ILL server		+0.6
29	14-15	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×4	Attack err	Hillary Estes		+0.7
30	14-16	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×4	Ace	GRNBAY server	aced Melaina Hawblitzel	+0.6
31	14-17	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×4	Kill	Kelsey Justman		+0.5
32	15-17	GRNBAY	W ILL	Kill	Georgia Haynes	set Jaleah Bauss	+0.4
33	16-17	W ILL	W ILL	Ace	W ILL server	aced Macy Kline	+0.6
34	16-18	W ILL	GRNBAY	Kill	Olivia Neumann		+0.5
35	16-19	GRNBAY	GRNBAY	Kill	Kelsey Justman		+0.5
36	17-19	GRNBAY	W ILL	Serve err	GRNBAY server		+0.4
37	17-20	W ILL	GRNBAY	Kill	Diane Pichelman	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.4
38	18-20	GRNBAY	W ILL	Kill	Audrey Pender	set Jaleah Bauss	+0.4
39	18-21	W ILL	GRNBAY	Attack err	Alysia Perez	set Macy Kline	+0.5
40	19-21	GRNBAY	W ILL	Kill	Kennedy Adair	set Alysia Perez	+0.4
41	19-22	W ILL	GRNBAY×4	Kill	Diane Pichelman	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.5
42	19-23	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×4	Kill	Olivia Neumann		+0.4
43	19-24	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×4	Attack err	Ashlee Markert		+0.2
44	19-25	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×4	Attack err	Ashlee Markert	blk Alexa Hernandez, Olivia Neumann	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	W ILL	GRNBAY	Serve err	W ILL server		+0.1
2	0-2	GRNBAY	GRNBAY	Attack err	Ashlee Markert		+0.1
3	1-2	GRNBAY	W ILL	Serve err	GRNBAY server		+0.1
4	1-3	W ILL	GRNBAY	Serve err	W ILL server		+0.1
5	2-3	GRNBAY	W ILL	Serve err	GRNBAY server		+0.1
6	2-4	W ILL	GRNBAY	Kill	Alexa Hernandez	set Kennedy Schmitz	+0.1
7	3-4	GRNBAY	W ILL	Attack err	Kayla Birmingham	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.1
8	3-5	W ILL	GRNBAY	Attack err	Emilia Kouri	set Alysia Perez	+0.1
9	3-6	GRNBAY	GRNBAY	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.1
10	4-6	GRNBAY	W ILL	Kill	Emilia Kouri	set Alysia Perez	+0.1
11	4-7	W ILL	GRNBAY	Attack err	Ashlee Markert	set Alysia Perez	+0.1
12	4-8	GRNBAY	GRNBAY	Kill	Kayla Birmingham	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.1
13	5-8	GRNBAY	W ILL	Kill	Audrey Pender	set Alysia Perez	+0.1
14	5-9	W ILL	GRNBAY×5	Kill	Kirsten Fish	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.1
15	5-10	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×5	Ace	GRNBAY server	aced Grace Ulatowski	+0.1
16	5-11	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×5	Kill	Olivia Neumann	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.1
17	5-12	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×5	Attack err	Ashlee Markert		+0.0
18	5-13	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×5	Attack err	Ashlee Markert	blk Kirsten Fish, Olivia Neumann	+0.0
19	6-13	GRNBAY	W ILL×3	Attack err	Kelsey Justman	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.0
20	7-13	W ILL	W ILL×3	Kill	Hillary Estes	set Jaleah Bauss	+0.0
21	8-13	W ILL	W ILL×3	Attack err	Kirsten Fish		+0.1
22	8-14	W ILL	GRNBAY	Kill	Kirsten Fish	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.1
23	9-14	GRNBAY	W ILL	Kill	Hillary Estes	set Jaleah Bauss	+0.0
24	10-14	W ILL	W ILL	Attack err	Kirsten Fish		+0.1
25	10-15	W ILL	GRNBAY	Kill	Diane Pichelman	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.1
26	10-16	GRNBAY	GRNBAY	Kill	Diane Pichelman	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.1
27	11-16	GRNBAY	W ILL	Serve err	GRNBAY server		+0.0
28	11-17	W ILL	GRNBAY	Kill	Kelsey Justman	set Kennedy Schmitz	+0.1
29	11-18	GRNBAY	GRNBAY	Attack err	Georgia Haynes		+0.0
30	12-18	GRNBAY	W ILL	Kill	Audrey Pender	set Jaleah Bauss	+0.0
31	12-19	W ILL	GRNBAY×6	Serve err	W ILL server		+0.0
32	12-20	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×6	Kill	Kayla Birmingham	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.0
33	12-21	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×6	Ace	GRNBAY server	aced TEAM	+0.0
34	12-22	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×6	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.0
35	12-23	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×6	Kill	Kayla Birmingham	set Alexa Hernandez	+0.0
36	12-24	GRNBAY	GRNBAY×6	Ace	GRNBAY server	aced Karlie Lane	+0.0
37	13-24	GRNBAY	W ILL	Kill	Kennedy Adair	set Alysia Perez	+0.0
38	13-25	W ILL	GRNBAY	Kill	Alexa Hernandez	set Kelsey Justman	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Western Ill. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.