FinalSat, Aug 29, 2026

AwaySUN-BELT

0:3

HomeMOUNTAIN-WEST

Grand Canyon def. Arkansas St. 3–0

(25-19, 25-15, 25-23)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
ARK ST	19	15	23	0
GCANYN	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

GCANYN above 50 · ARK ST below

Biggest swing: 5.8% to Grand Canyon — set 3, ARK ST 23-25 GCANYN. Kill by Ana Jaramazovic (set by Bella Nunez). GCANYN win probability 94% → 100%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

ARK ST 57.6%42.4% GCANYN

Arkansas St. wins

3-0

16.0%

3-1

21.9%

3-2

19.7%

Grand Canyon wins

3-0

9.6%

3-1

15.6%

3-2

17.2%

ARK ST break %: 42.9% vs this opp
GCANYN break %: 41.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Ana JaramazovicKill+5.8%
Kill by Ana Jaramazovic (set by Bella Nunez)
Set 3 · ARK ST 23-25 GCANYN · GCANYN 94% → 100%
02
Starr WilliamsKill+4.4%
Kill by Starr Williams (set by Bella Nunez)
Set 3 · ARK ST 22-24 GCANYN · GCANYN 92% → 97%
03
GCANYN serverAce+3.9%
Grand Canyon ace on Mia Maloney
Set 1 · ARK ST 16-19 GCANYN · GCANYN 51% → 55%
04
Ana JaramazovicKill+3.7%
Kill by Ana Jaramazovic (set by Bella Nunez)
Set 3 · ARK ST 21-23 GCANYN · GCANYN 91% → 95%
05
Haley GlunzAttack error+3.5%
Haley Glunz stuffed by Gentry Oblad & Aubrey Bellus
Set 3 · ARK ST 17-19 GCANYN · GCANYN 88% → 92%
06
Gentry ObladAttack error+3.4%
Gentry Oblad stuffed by Haley Glunz & Erin Madigan
Set 3 · ARK ST 20-21 GCANYN · ARK ST 6% → 10%
07
ARK ST serverService error+3.3%
Arkansas St. service error
Set 3 · ARK ST 20-22 GCANYN · GCANYN 90% → 94%
08
Addison CollumKill+3.3%
Kill by Addison Collum (set by Erin Madigan)
Set 1 · ARK ST 13-14 GCANYN · ARK ST 49% → 53%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Arkansas St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
7Kaitlin WhitlockOH	3	11	3	35	.229	1	0	1	9	0	0	0	0	11
15Addison CollumOH	3	7	3	18	.222	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	0	8
22Devyn LewisOH	3	7	3	25	.160	0	0	0	4	0	0	1	0.5	7.5
13Haley GlunzMB	3	4	2	16	.125	0	1	0	2	0	0	2	1	6
4Ne'Khaela RogersMB	3	3	2	7	.143	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	2.5	5.5
8Erin MadiganS	3	1	0	2	.500	30	0	1	3	0	0	2	1	2
11Mia MaloneyL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	2	2	12	4	0	0	0	2
1Keira GaringerOH	3	0	0	1	.000	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	0	0
3Libby Gee-WeilerL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
9Parker StearnsOH	2	4	1	6	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	5
6Calea BushOH	2	1	0	3	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
10Maya JoskaS	2	0	0	0	–	5	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		38	14	113	.212	36	4	8	42	6	1	10	6	57

Grand Canyonhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
12Starr WilliamsOPP	3	20	4	38	.421	0	0	2	3	1	1	0.5	20.5
10Aubrey BellusMB	3	5	1	10	.400	0	0	0	3	0	2	1	6
21Bella NunezS	3	4	1	13	.231	21	1	1	10	0	1	0.5	5.5
19Aubrey GoodereMB	3	3	0	10	.300	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
11Gentry ObladOH	3	2	1	3	.333	0	1	0	6	1	1	0.5	3.5
4Taylor KubacakS	3	1	0	1	1.000	17	1	2	6	0	0	0	2
2Katie SchulzOH	3	8	3	21	.238	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	8
20Ana JaramazovicOPP	3	4	0	7	.571	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	4
8Bella AndersonL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	6	3	0	12	1	0	0	3
3Alayna Austin	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	7	1	0	0	0
Team totals		47	10	104	.356	44	6	5	51	4	6	3	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 ARK ST · GCANYN 5

Set 1

19-25

Longest run 4 ARK STGCANYN 4

Set 2

15-25

Longest run 3 ARK STGCANYN 5

Set 3

23-25

Longest run 3 ARK STGCANYN 4

Bars above the line = Grand Canyon leads, below = Arkansas St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Arkansas St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	44%8/18	13%1/8
2	50%7/14	43%6/14
3	54%7/13	30%3/10
4	60%6/10	13%1/8
5	67%6/9	33%3/9
6	60%6/10	33%3/9
All	54%40/74	29%17/58

Grand Canyon

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	62%8/13	46%6/13
2	70%7/10	56%9/16
3	70%7/10	36%4/11
4	78%7/9	36%4/11
5	60%6/10	50%6/12
6	100%6/6	45%5/11
All	71%41/58	46%34/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

132 rallies

Rally log

#	ARK ST-GCANYN	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	GCANYN	GCANYN	Attack err	Ne'Khaela Rogers		+2.5
2	1-1	GCANYN	ARK ST	Kill	Addison Collum	set Erin Madigan	+1.8
3	1-2	ARK ST	GCANYN×4	Attack err	Kaitlin Whitlock		+1.9
4	1-3	GCANYN	GCANYN×4	Kill	Aubrey Bellus	set Erin Madigan	+2.6
5	1-4	GCANYN	GCANYN×4	Kill	Aubrey Bellus	set Taylor Kubacak	+2.5
6	1-5	GCANYN	GCANYN×4	Attack err	Addison Collum		+2.4
7	2-5	GCANYN	ARK ST	Kill	Devyn Lewis	set Erin Madigan	+1.6
8	2-6	ARK ST	GCANYN×3	Serve err	ARK ST server		+1.8
9	2-7	GCANYN	GCANYN×3	Attack err	Devyn Lewis		+2.2
10	2-8	GCANYN	GCANYN×3	Kill	Aubrey Goodere	set Taylor Kubacak	+2.0
11	3-8	GCANYN	ARK ST	Kill	Devyn Lewis	set Kaitlin Whitlock	+1.2
12	3-9	ARK ST	GCANYN	Kill	Bella Nunez	set Taylor Kubacak	+1.4
13	4-9	GCANYN	ARK ST	Attack err	Katie Schulz	blk Parker Stearns, Haley Glunz	+1.2
14	4-10	ARK ST	GCANYN	Kill	Katie Schulz	set Bella Anderson	+1.4
15	5-10	GCANYN	ARK ST×4	Kill	Parker Stearns	set Maya Joska	+1.1
16	6-10	ARK ST	ARK ST×4	Attack err	Starr Williams	blk Parker Stearns, Ne'Khaela Rogers	+1.9
17	7-10	ARK ST	ARK ST×4	Kill	Parker Stearns	set Maya Joska	+2.3
18	8-10	ARK ST	ARK ST×4	Ace	ARK ST server	aced Bella Anderson	+2.6
19	8-11	ARK ST	GCANYN	Kill	Starr Williams	set Bella Nunez	+2.2
20	8-12	GCANYN	GCANYN	Kill	Ana Jaramazovic	set Bella Nunez	+2.8
21	9-12	GCANYN	ARK ST	Kill	Kaitlin Whitlock	set Maya Joska	+1.7
22	9-13	ARK ST	GCANYN	Kill	Starr Williams	set Bella Nunez	+2.1
23	9-14	GCANYN	GCANYN	Kill	Starr Williams	set Taylor Kubacak	+2.4
24	10-14	GCANYN	ARK ST×4	Kill	Addison Collum	set Erin Madigan	+1.4
25	11-14	ARK ST	ARK ST×4	Attack err	Bella Nunez	blk Devyn Lewis, Ne'Khaela Rogers	+2.4
26	12-14	ARK ST	ARK ST×4	Attack err	Aubrey Bellus	blk Ne'Khaela Rogers	+2.9
27	13-14	ARK ST	ARK ST×4	Kill	Addison Collum	set Erin Madigan	+3.3
28	13-15	ARK ST	GCANYN	Serve err	ARK ST server		+2.7
29	14-15	GCANYN	ARK ST	Kill	Ne'Khaela Rogers	set Erin Madigan	+2.5
30	14-16	ARK ST	GCANYN	Kill	Aubrey Bellus	set Taylor Kubacak	+2.8
31	15-16	GCANYN	ARK ST	Kill	Haley Glunz	set Erin Madigan	+2.6
32	15-17	ARK ST	GCANYN	Serve err	ARK ST server		+3.0
33	16-17	GCANYN	ARK ST	Kill	Parker Stearns	set Maya Joska	+2.7
34	16-18	ARK ST	GCANYN×3	Kill	Katie Schulz	set Bella Nunez	+3.2
35	16-19	GCANYN	GCANYN×3	Ace	GCANYN server	aced Mia Maloney	+3.9
36	16-20	GCANYN	GCANYN×3	Kill	Starr Williams	set Bella Anderson	+3.2
37	17-20	GCANYN	ARK ST	Kill	Parker Stearns	set Maya Joska	+1.6
38	17-21	ARK ST	GCANYN	Kill	Aubrey Goodere	set Bella Nunez	+2.4
39	17-22	GCANYN	GCANYN	Ace	GCANYN server	aced Mia Maloney	+2.1
40	18-22	GCANYN	ARK ST	Kill	Kaitlin Whitlock	set Maya Joska	+0.7
41	18-23	ARK ST	GCANYN	Kill	Starr Williams	set Bella Nunez	+1.3
42	18-24	GCANYN	GCANYN	Kill	Starr Williams	set Taylor Kubacak	+0.7
43	19-24	GCANYN	ARK ST	Kill	Addison Collum	set Erin Madigan	+0.1
44	19-25	ARK ST	GCANYN	Kill	Starr Williams	set Taylor Kubacak	+0.3
Set 2
1	0-1	ARK ST	GCANYN×4	Kill	Starr Williams	set Bella Anderson	+2.0
2	0-2	GCANYN	GCANYN×4	Attack err	Addison Collum		+2.8
3	0-3	GCANYN	GCANYN×4	Ace	GCANYN server	aced Team	+2.7
4	0-4	GCANYN	GCANYN×4	Kill	Starr Williams	set Bella Nunez	+2.6
5	1-4	GCANYN	ARK ST	Kill	Addison Collum	set Erin Madigan	+1.7
6	2-4	ARK ST	ARK ST	Ace	ARK ST server	aced Gentry Oblad	+2.6
7	2-5	ARK ST	GCANYN	Kill	Starr Williams	set Bella Nunez	+2.1
8	3-5	GCANYN	ARK ST×3	Serve err	GCANYN server		+1.9
9	4-5	ARK ST	ARK ST×3	Kill	Devyn Lewis	set Erin Madigan	+2.8
10	5-5	ARK ST	ARK ST×3	Kill	Haley Glunz	set Erin Madigan	+2.9
11	5-6	ARK ST	GCANYN×5	Serve err	ARK ST server		+2.2
12	5-7	GCANYN	GCANYN×5	Kill	Katie Schulz	set Taylor Kubacak	+3.1
13	5-8	GCANYN	GCANYN×5	Kill	Bella Nunez	set Bella Anderson	+3.0
14	5-9	GCANYN	GCANYN×5	Attack err	Parker Stearns		+2.8
15	5-10	GCANYN	GCANYN×5	Kill	Starr Williams	set Taylor Kubacak	+2.5
16	6-10	GCANYN	ARK ST	Serve err	GCANYN server		+1.5
17	6-11	ARK ST	GCANYN×5	Kill	Aubrey Bellus	set Taylor Kubacak	+1.9
18	6-12	GCANYN	GCANYN×5	Kill	Taylor Kubacak	set Maya Joska	+2.1
19	6-13	GCANYN	GCANYN×5	Kill	Katie Schulz		+1.7
20	6-14	GCANYN	GCANYN×5	Kill	Katie Schulz	set Taylor Kubacak	+1.3
21	6-15	GCANYN	GCANYN×5	Attack err	Kaitlin Whitlock		+0.9
22	7-15	GCANYN	ARK ST	Kill	Kaitlin Whitlock	set Erin Madigan	+0.4
23	8-15	ARK ST	ARK ST	Attack err	Katie Schulz	blk Ne'Khaela Rogers, Erin Madigan	+0.8
24	8-16	ARK ST	GCANYN	Kill	Bella Nunez	set Bella Anderson	+0.8
25	8-17	GCANYN	GCANYN	Ace	GCANYN server	aced Libby Gee-Weiler	+0.7
26	9-17	GCANYN	ARK ST	Serve err	GCANYN server		+0.3
27	9-18	ARK ST	GCANYN	Serve err	ARK ST server		+0.5
28	10-18	GCANYN	ARK ST	Kill	Kaitlin Whitlock	set Erin Madigan	+0.3
29	11-18	ARK ST	ARK ST	Attack err	Starr Williams		+0.6
30	11-19	ARK ST	GCANYN	Attack err	Addison Collum	blk Starr Williams, Aubrey Goodere	+0.6
31	11-20	GCANYN	GCANYN	Ace	GCANYN server	aced Mia Maloney	+0.5
32	12-20	GCANYN	ARK ST	Attack err	Starr Williams		+0.2
33	13-20	ARK ST	ARK ST	Ace	ARK ST server	aced Starr Williams	+0.4
34	13-21	ARK ST	GCANYN×3	Kill	Starr Williams	set Bella Nunez	+0.5
35	13-22	GCANYN	GCANYN×3	Kill	Starr Williams	set Bella Anderson	+0.3
36	13-23	GCANYN	GCANYN×3	Ace	GCANYN server	aced Mia Maloney	+0.1
37	14-23	GCANYN	ARK ST	Kill	Devyn Lewis	set Erin Madigan	+0.0
38	14-24	ARK ST	GCANYN	Serve err	ARK ST server		+0.0
39	15-24	GCANYN	ARK ST	Kill	Calea Bush	set Erin Madigan	+0.0
40	15-25	ARK ST	GCANYN	Kill	Aubrey Bellus	set Taylor Kubacak	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	GCANYN	ARK ST	Serve err	GCANYN server		+1.4
2	2-0	ARK ST	ARK ST	Kill	Devyn Lewis	set Erin Madigan	+1.8
3	2-1	ARK ST	GCANYN	Kill	Bella Nunez	set Taylor Kubacak	+1.3
4	3-1	GCANYN	ARK ST	Serve err	GCANYN server		+1.4
5	4-1	ARK ST	ARK ST	Ace	ARK ST server	aced Alayna Austin	+1.8
6	4-2	ARK ST	GCANYN	Attack err	Devyn Lewis		+1.2
7	5-2	GCANYN	ARK ST	Kill	Devyn Lewis	set Erin Madigan	+1.3
8	5-3	ARK ST	GCANYN	Kill	Katie Schulz	set Taylor Kubacak	+1.2
9	6-3	GCANYN	ARK ST	Kill	Kaitlin Whitlock	set Erin Madigan	+1.3
10	6-4	ARK ST	GCANYN	Kill	Aubrey Goodere	set Bella Nunez	+1.3
11	7-4	GCANYN	ARK ST	Kill	Kaitlin Whitlock	set Erin Madigan	+1.4
12	7-5	ARK ST	GCANYN	Kill	Starr Williams	set Bella Nunez	+1.3
13	7-6	GCANYN	GCANYN	Kill	Starr Williams	set Bella Nunez	+2.0
14	8-6	GCANYN	ARK ST	Kill	Kaitlin Whitlock	set Erin Madigan	+1.5
15	8-7	ARK ST	GCANYN×4	Kill	Starr Williams	set Bella Nunez	+1.5
16	8-8	GCANYN	GCANYN×4	Attack err	Devyn Lewis	blk Bella Nunez, Aubrey Bellus	+2.2
17	8-9	GCANYN	GCANYN×4	Kill	Gentry Oblad	set Taylor Kubacak	+2.3
18	8-10	GCANYN	GCANYN×4	Attack err	Ne'Khaela Rogers		+2.4
19	9-10	GCANYN	ARK ST	Kill	Ne'Khaela Rogers	set Erin Madigan	+1.6
20	9-11	ARK ST	GCANYN	Serve err	ARK ST server		+1.8
21	10-11	GCANYN	ARK ST	Kill	Addison Collum	set Erin Madigan	+1.7
22	10-12	ARK ST	GCANYN	Kill	Katie Schulz	set Taylor Kubacak	+1.9
23	11-12	GCANYN	ARK ST	Kill	Haley Glunz	set Erin Madigan	+1.7
24	11-13	ARK ST	GCANYN	Attack err	Kaitlin Whitlock		+1.9
25	12-13	GCANYN	ARK ST×3	Kill	Kaitlin Whitlock	set Erin Madigan	+1.8
26	13-13	ARK ST	ARK ST×3	Attack err	Katie Schulz		+2.7
27	14-13	ARK ST	ARK ST×3	Kill	Kaitlin Whitlock	set Erin Madigan	+2.7
28	14-14	ARK ST	GCANYN	Kill	Katie Schulz	set Bella Nunez	+2.0
29	15-14	GCANYN	ARK ST	Kill	Kaitlin Whitlock	set Erin Madigan	+2.1
30	15-15	ARK ST	GCANYN	Kill	Starr Williams	set Bella Nunez	+2.1
31	15-16	GCANYN	GCANYN	Kill	Ana Jaramazovic	set Bella Nunez	+3.1
32	16-16	GCANYN	ARK ST	Kill	Ne'Khaela Rogers	set Erin Madigan	+2.2
33	16-17	ARK ST	GCANYN	Kill	Starr Williams	set Bella Nunez	+2.4
34	17-17	GCANYN	ARK ST	Kill	Devyn Lewis	set Erin Madigan	+2.3
35	17-18	ARK ST	GCANYN×3	Kill	Starr Williams	set Bella Nunez	+2.6
36	17-19	GCANYN	GCANYN×3	Attack err	Haley Glunz	blk Gentry Oblad, Aubrey Bellus	+3.5
37	17-20	GCANYN	GCANYN×3	Attack err	Haley Glunz		+3.2
38	18-20	GCANYN	ARK ST	Kill	Addison Collum	set Erin Madigan	+1.7
39	18-21	ARK ST	GCANYN	Kill	Gentry Oblad	set Taylor Kubacak	+2.4
40	19-21	GCANYN	ARK ST	Kill	Haley Glunz	set Erin Madigan	+1.7
41	20-21	ARK ST	ARK ST	Attack err	Gentry Oblad	blk Haley Glunz, Erin Madigan	+3.4
42	20-22	ARK ST	GCANYN	Serve err	ARK ST server		+3.3
43	21-22	GCANYN	ARK ST	Kill	Kaitlin Whitlock	set Erin Madigan	+2.6
44	21-23	ARK ST	GCANYN	Kill	Ana Jaramazovic	set Bella Nunez	+3.7
45	22-23	GCANYN	ARK ST	Kill	Erin Madigan		+2.6
46	22-24	ARK ST	GCANYN	Kill	Starr Williams	set Bella Nunez	+4.4
47	23-24	GCANYN	ARK ST	Attack err	Starr Williams		+2.4
48	23-25	ARK ST	GCANYN	Kill	Ana Jaramazovic	set Bella Nunez	+5.8

Score shown after each rally, Arkansas St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.