FinalSun, Aug 30, 2026

AwaySUN-BELT

0:3

HomeBIG-WEST

Cal Poly def. Arkansas St. 3–0

(25-15, 25-20, 25-23)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
ARK ST	15	20	23	0
CALPLY	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

CALPLY above 50 · ARK ST below

Biggest swing: 4.2% to Cal Poly — set 3, ARK ST 23-24 CALPLY. Cal Poly ace on Mia Maloney. CALPLY win probability 92% → 96%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

ARK ST 31.4%68.6% CALPLY

Arkansas St. wins

3-0

6.1%

3-1

11.1%

3-2

14.2%

Cal Poly wins

3-0

22.3%

3-1

26.3%

3-2

20.0%

ARK ST break %: 38.4% vs this opp
CALPLY break %: 42.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
CALPLY serverAce+4.2%
Cal Poly ace on Mia Maloney
Set 3 · ARK ST 23-24 CALPLY · CALPLY 92% → 96%
02
Kendall BeshearKill+3.8%
Kill by Kendall Beshear
Set 3 · ARK ST 23-25 CALPLY · CALPLY 96% → 100%
03
Devyn LewisAttack error+3.4%
Devyn Lewis stuffed by Kayla Murdoch & Charlotte Kelly
Set 3 · ARK ST 23-23 CALPLY · CALPLY 89% → 92%
04
ARK ST serverAce+2.6%
Arkansas St. ace on Kendall Beshear
Set 1 · ARK ST 4-2 CALPLY · ARK ST 33% → 36%
05
Breklyn PullingKill+2.5%
Kill by Breklyn Pulling (set by Alexis Haury)
Set 1 · ARK ST 5-6 CALPLY · CALPLY 68% → 71%
06
Devyn LewisAttack error+2.5%
Attack error by Devyn Lewis
Set 1 · ARK ST 4-4 CALPLY · CALPLY 66% → 68%
07
Parker StearnsAttack error+2.5%
Attack error by Parker Stearns
Set 1 · ARK ST 6-8 CALPLY · CALPLY 71% → 73%
08
ARK ST serverAce+2.4%
Arkansas St. ace on Elif Hurriyet
Set 1 · ARK ST 2-1 CALPLY · ARK ST 31% → 33%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Arkansas St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
7Kaitlin WhitlockOH	3	9	5	31	.129	0	0	1	8	1	1	0	1	10
13Haley GlunzMB	3	8	2	12	.500	1	0	1	0	0	1	1	1.5	9.5
22Devyn LewisOH	3	9	3	20	.300	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	9
15Addison CollumOH	3	7	7	22	.000	1	1	1	6	0	0	0	0	8
8Erin MadiganS	3	0	0	0	–	19	0	1	7	0	0	0	0	0
4Ne'Khaela RogersMB	1	0	1	2	-.500	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
6Calea BushOH	3	3	2	7	.143	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	3
9Parker StearnsOH	3	2	2	9	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
11Mia MaloneyL/DS	3	0	0	2	.000	1	2	1	7	1	0	0	0	2
1Keira GaringerOH	3	0	0	1	.000	0	1	0	5	1	0	0	0	1
10Maya JoskaS	3	0	0	1	.000	13	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		38	22	107	.150	35	4	5	40	7	2	2	3	58

Cal Polyhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
13Kendall BeshearOH	3	14	1	32	.406	0	2	3	4	1	2	1	17
1Emma FredrickOH	3	9	4	24	.208	0	2	1	5	2	0	0	11
16Kayla MurdochOH	3	7	3	20	.200	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	8
15Charlotte KellyMB	3	6	2	10	.400	0	0	0	0	0	4	2	8
12Breklyn PullingMB	3	5	1	8	.500	0	1	0	2	0	3	1.5	7.5
8Alexis HauryS	3	0	0	5	.000	34	1	0	7	0	3	1.5	2.5
21Elif HurriyetL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	1	0	12	1	0	0	1
53Ella ScottL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0
6Maren O'FarrellL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	0
Team totals		41	11	99	.303	36	7	5	39	4	14	7	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 7 ARK ST · CALPLY 6

Set 1

15-25

Longest run 2 ARK STCALPLY 6

Set 2

20-25

Longest run 3 ARK STCALPLY 4

Set 3

23-25

Longest run 7 ARK STCALPLY 5

Bars above the line = Cal Poly leads, below = Arkansas St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Arkansas St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	39%7/18	45%5/11
2	58%7/12	53%8/15
3	75%6/8	36%4/11
4	60%6/10	33%3/9
5	38%5/13	0%0/6
6	38%5/13	29%2/7
All	49%36/74	37%22/59

Cal Poly

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	39%7/18	63%10/16
2	58%7/12	30%3/10
3	70%7/10	36%4/11
4	100%6/6	25%2/8
5	83%5/6	64%9/14
6	71%5/7	67%10/15
All	63%37/59	51%38/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

133 rallies

Rally log

#	ARK ST-CALPLY	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	CALPLY	CALPLY	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Addison Collum	+2.2
2	1-1	CALPLY	ARK ST	Kill	Devyn Lewis	set Erin Madigan	+1.5
3	2-1	ARK ST	ARK ST	Ace	ARK ST server	aced Elif Hurriyet	+2.4
4	2-2	ARK ST	CALPLY	Kill	Kayla Murdoch	set Elif Hurriyet	+1.6
5	3-2	CALPLY	ARK ST	Kill	Addison Collum	set Erin Madigan	+1.7
6	4-2	ARK ST	ARK ST	Ace	ARK ST server	aced Kendall Beshear	+2.6
7	4-3	ARK ST	CALPLY	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	+1.6
8	4-4	CALPLY	CALPLY	Attack err	Devyn Lewis		+2.5
9	5-4	CALPLY	ARK ST	Kill	Haley Glunz	set Maya Joska	+1.8
10	5-5	ARK ST	CALPLY	Kill	Kayla Murdoch	set Alexis Haury	+1.7
11	5-6	CALPLY	CALPLY	Kill	Breklyn Pulling	set Alexis Haury	+2.5
12	6-6	CALPLY	ARK ST	Kill	Kaitlin Whitlock	set Maya Joska	+1.7
13	6-7	ARK ST	CALPLY×3	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	+1.7
14	6-8	CALPLY	CALPLY×3	Attack err	Parker Stearns		+2.5
15	6-9	CALPLY	CALPLY×3	Attack err	Ne'Khaela Rogers		+2.2
16	7-9	CALPLY	ARK ST	Kill	Kaitlin Whitlock	set Maya Joska	+1.4
17	7-10	ARK ST	CALPLY×6	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Alexis Haury	+1.5
18	7-11	CALPLY	CALPLY×6	Ace	CALPLY server	aced Team	+2.0
19	7-12	CALPLY	CALPLY×6	Attack err	Kaitlin Whitlock		+1.6
20	7-13	CALPLY	CALPLY×6	Attack err	Kaitlin Whitlock	blk Alexis Haury, Charlotte Kelly	+1.2
21	7-14	CALPLY	CALPLY×6	Kill	Charlotte Kelly		+0.9
22	7-15	CALPLY	CALPLY×6	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Alexis Haury	+0.6
23	8-15	CALPLY	ARK ST	Kill	Kaitlin Whitlock	set Erin Madigan	+0.3
24	9-15	ARK ST	ARK ST	Attack err	Emma Fredrick		+0.6
25	9-16	ARK ST	CALPLY×3	Kill	Charlotte Kelly	set Alexis Haury	+0.5
26	9-17	CALPLY	CALPLY×3	Kill	Kayla Murdoch	set Alexis Haury	+0.5
27	9-18	CALPLY	CALPLY×3	Attack err	Addison Collum		+0.3
28	10-18	CALPLY	ARK ST	Kill	Addison Collum	set Erin Madigan	+0.1
29	10-19	ARK ST	CALPLY	Kill	Charlotte Kelly	set Alexis Haury	+0.2
30	10-20	CALPLY	CALPLY	Ace	CALPLY server	aced Team	+0.1
31	11-20	CALPLY	ARK ST	Serve err	CALPLY server		+0.0
32	12-20	ARK ST	ARK ST	Kill	Haley Glunz	set Elif Hurriyet	+0.1
33	12-21	ARK ST	CALPLY	Serve err	ARK ST server		+0.1
34	13-21	CALPLY	ARK ST	Kill	Devyn Lewis	set Maya Joska	+0.0
35	14-21	ARK ST	ARK ST	Attack err	Emma Fredrick	blk Haley Glunz, Parker Stearns	+0.1
36	14-22	ARK ST	CALPLY	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	+0.1
37	15-22	CALPLY	ARK ST	Kill	Parker Stearns	set Maya Joska	+0.0
38	15-23	ARK ST	CALPLY×3	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	+0.1
39	15-24	CALPLY	CALPLY×3	Attack err	Kaitlin Whitlock	blk Breklyn Pulling, Alexis Haury	+0.0
40	15-25	CALPLY	CALPLY×3	Ace	CALPLY server	aced Team	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	ARK ST	CALPLY	Kill	Kayla Murdoch	set Alexis Haury	+1.2
2	1-1	CALPLY	ARK ST	Kill	Addison Collum	set Erin Madigan	+1.3
3	2-1	ARK ST	ARK ST	Attack err	Emma Fredrick		+2.0
4	2-2	ARK ST	CALPLY×3	Kill	Kayla Murdoch	set Alexis Haury	+1.3
5	2-3	CALPLY	CALPLY×3	Attack err	Addison Collum		+2.0
6	2-4	CALPLY	CALPLY×3	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Alexis Haury	+1.9
7	3-4	CALPLY	ARK ST	Kill	Addison Collum	set Erin Madigan	+1.2
8	3-5	ARK ST	CALPLY	Kill	Breklyn Pulling	set Alexis Haury	+1.3
9	4-5	CALPLY	ARK ST	Kill	Devyn Lewis	set Maya Joska	+1.3
10	4-6	ARK ST	CALPLY	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Alexis Haury	+1.3
11	5-6	CALPLY	ARK ST	Kill	Haley Glunz	set Keira Garinger	+1.3
12	5-7	ARK ST	CALPLY	Serve err	ARK ST server		+1.3
13	5-8	CALPLY	CALPLY	Attack err	Calea Bush		+1.8
14	6-8	CALPLY	ARK ST	Kill	Kaitlin Whitlock	set Maya Joska	+1.2
15	6-9	ARK ST	CALPLY	Kill	Charlotte Kelly	set Alexis Haury	+1.2
16	7-9	CALPLY	ARK ST×3	Kill	Kaitlin Whitlock	set Addison Collum	+1.2
17	8-9	ARK ST	ARK ST×3	Attack err	Kayla Murdoch		+2.0
18	9-9	ARK ST	ARK ST×3	Kill	Calea Bush	set Erin Madigan	+2.3
19	9-10	ARK ST	CALPLY	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Alexis Haury	+1.6
20	9-11	CALPLY	CALPLY	Kill	Charlotte Kelly		+2.3
21	10-11	CALPLY	ARK ST	Serve err	CALPLY server		+1.5
22	10-12	ARK ST	CALPLY	Serve err	ARK ST server		+1.6
23	10-13	CALPLY	CALPLY	Ace	CALPLY server	aced Devyn Lewis	+2.1
24	11-13	CALPLY	ARK ST	Kill	Addison Collum	set Erin Madigan	+1.3
25	11-14	ARK ST	CALPLY	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	+1.4
26	11-15	CALPLY	CALPLY	Attack err	Haley Glunz		+1.8
27	12-15	CALPLY	ARK ST	Serve err	CALPLY server		+1.0
28	12-16	ARK ST	CALPLY×4	Kill	Breklyn Pulling	set Alexis Haury	+1.2
29	12-17	CALPLY	CALPLY×4	Attack err	Parker Stearns		+1.4
30	12-18	CALPLY	CALPLY×4	Attack err	Kaitlin Whitlock	blk Breklyn Pulling, Alexis Haury	+0.9
31	12-19	CALPLY	CALPLY×4	Kill	Breklyn Pulling	set Alexis Haury	+0.6
32	13-19	CALPLY	ARK ST	Serve err	CALPLY server		+0.2
33	13-20	ARK ST	CALPLY	Kill	Breklyn Pulling	set Alexis Haury	+0.3
34	13-21	CALPLY	CALPLY	Attack err	Calea Bush		+0.2
35	14-21	CALPLY	ARK ST	Kill	Kaitlin Whitlock	set Maya Joska	+0.1
36	15-21	ARK ST	ARK ST	Kill	Kaitlin Whitlock	set Mia Maloney	+0.2
37	15-22	ARK ST	CALPLY	Kill	Charlotte Kelly	set Erin Madigan	+0.2
38	16-22	CALPLY	ARK ST×3	Kill	Addison Collum	set Erin Madigan	+0.1
39	17-22	ARK ST	ARK ST×3	Attack err	Kayla Murdoch		+0.3
40	18-22	ARK ST	ARK ST×3	Attack err	Kendall Beshear		+0.5
41	18-23	ARK ST	CALPLY	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Alexis Haury	+0.6
42	19-23	CALPLY	ARK ST	Kill	Calea Bush	set Erin Madigan	+0.2
43	19-24	ARK ST	CALPLY	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	+0.5
44	20-24	CALPLY	ARK ST	Kill	Addison Collum	set Erin Madigan	+0.1
45	20-25	ARK ST	CALPLY	Attack err	Devyn Lewis	blk Kayla Murdoch, Breklyn Pulling	+0.3
Set 3
1	0-1	CALPLY	CALPLY×3	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Alexis Haury	+1.0
2	0-2	CALPLY	CALPLY×3	Attack err	Addison Collum		+1.0
3	0-3	CALPLY	CALPLY×3	Attack err	Addison Collum	blk Kendall Beshear, Charlotte Kelly	+0.9
4	1-3	CALPLY	ARK ST×7	Attack err	Charlotte Kelly		+0.6
5	2-3	ARK ST	ARK ST×7	Kill	Haley Glunz	set Erin Madigan	+1.0
6	3-3	ARK ST	ARK ST×7	Attack err	Charlotte Kelly	blk Haley Glunz	+1.1
7	4-3	ARK ST	ARK ST×7	Kill	Devyn Lewis	set Erin Madigan	+1.2
8	5-3	ARK ST	ARK ST×7	Kill	Devyn Lewis	set Erin Madigan	+1.2
9	6-3	ARK ST	ARK ST×7	Ace	ARK ST server	aced Emma Fredrick	+1.2
10	7-3	ARK ST	ARK ST×7	Kill	Devyn Lewis	set Erin Madigan	+1.2
11	7-4	ARK ST	CALPLY	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Alexis Haury	+0.7
12	7-5	CALPLY	CALPLY	Ace	CALPLY server	aced Kaitlin Whitlock	+1.1
13	8-5	CALPLY	ARK ST×3	Kill	Devyn Lewis	set Haley Glunz	+0.9
14	9-5	ARK ST	ARK ST×3	Kill	Haley Glunz	set Erin Madigan	+1.2
15	10-5	ARK ST	ARK ST×3	Kill	Haley Glunz		+1.1
16	10-6	ARK ST	CALPLY	Kill	Kayla Murdoch	set Alexis Haury	+0.6
17	11-6	CALPLY	ARK ST×3	Kill	Devyn Lewis	set Maya Joska	+0.8
18	12-6	ARK ST	ARK ST×3	Ace	ARK ST server	aced Emma Fredrick	+1.0
19	13-6	ARK ST	ARK ST×3	Attack err	Kayla Murdoch	blk Kaitlin Whitlock	+0.8
20	13-7	ARK ST	CALPLY	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	+0.4
21	14-7	CALPLY	ARK ST	Kill	Haley Glunz	set Maya Joska	+0.5
22	14-8	ARK ST	CALPLY×3	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Alexis Haury	+0.3
23	14-9	CALPLY	CALPLY×3	Attack err	Kaitlin Whitlock		+0.7
24	14-10	CALPLY	CALPLY×3	Ace	CALPLY server	aced Keira Garinger	+0.9
25	15-10	CALPLY	ARK ST	Kill	Parker Stearns	set Maya Joska	+0.8
26	16-10	ARK ST	ARK ST	Attack err	Breklyn Pulling		+0.9
27	16-11	ARK ST	CALPLY×3	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Alexis Haury	+0.4
28	16-12	CALPLY	CALPLY×3	Attack err	Addison Collum		+0.9
29	16-13	CALPLY	CALPLY×3	Attack err	Addison Collum	blk Kendall Beshear, Charlotte Kelly	+1.1
30	17-13	CALPLY	ARK ST	Kill	Kaitlin Whitlock	set Erin Madigan	+1.0
31	17-14	ARK ST	CALPLY	Serve err	ARK ST server		+0.7
32	18-14	CALPLY	ARK ST	Kill	Devyn Lewis	set Erin Madigan	+1.0
33	18-15	ARK ST	CALPLY	Attack err	Haley Glunz		+0.7
34	19-15	CALPLY	ARK ST	Serve err	CALPLY server		+1.0
35	19-16	ARK ST	CALPLY	Kill	Kayla Murdoch	set Alexis Haury	+0.7
36	20-16	CALPLY	ARK ST	Attack err	Emma Fredrick		+1.0
37	20-17	ARK ST	CALPLY	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	+0.7
38	21-17	CALPLY	ARK ST	Kill	Haley Glunz	set Maya Joska	+1.0
39	21-18	ARK ST	CALPLY	Kill	Emma Fredrick	set Alexis Haury	+0.6
40	22-18	CALPLY	ARK ST	Kill	Calea Bush	set Maya Joska	+1.0
41	22-19	ARK ST	CALPLY	Serve err	ARK ST server		+0.5
42	22-20	CALPLY	CALPLY	Attack err	Addison Collum		+1.3
43	23-20	CALPLY	ARK ST	Kill	Kaitlin Whitlock	set Erin Madigan	+1.5
44	23-21	ARK ST	CALPLY×5	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Alexis Haury	+0.8
45	23-22	CALPLY	CALPLY×5	Kill	Kendall Beshear	set Elif Hurriyet	+2.1
46	23-23	CALPLY	CALPLY×5	Attack err	Devyn Lewis	blk Kayla Murdoch, Charlotte Kelly	+3.4
47	23-24	CALPLY	CALPLY×5	Ace	CALPLY server	aced Mia Maloney	+4.2
48	23-25	CALPLY	CALPLY×5	Kill	Kendall Beshear		+3.8

Score shown after each rally, Arkansas St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.