Final · 4 setsSat, Sep 5, 2026

AwaySUN-BELT

3:1

HomePATRIOT

Arkansas St. def. American 3–1

(25-16, 25-18, 23-25, 25-14)

Set	1	2	3	4	Sets
ARK ST	25	25	23	25	3
AMER	16	18	25	14	1

RallyIQ model

Win probability

AMER above 50 · ARK ST below

Biggest swing: 5.4% to American — set 3, ARK ST 23-25 AMER. Kill by Salme Hollas (set by Deniz Dakak). AMER win probability 14% → 19%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

ARK ST 61.9%38.1% AMER

Arkansas St. wins

3-0

18.2%

3-1

23.7%

3-2

20.0%

American wins

3-0

8.1%

3-1

13.8%

3-2

16.2%

ARK ST break %: 45.8% vs this opp
AMER break %: 43.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Salme HollasKill+5.4%
Kill by Salme Hollas (set by Deniz Dakak)
Set 3 · ARK ST 23-25 AMER · AMER 14% → 19%
02
Salme HollasKill+4.1%
Kill by Salme Hollas (set by Deniz Dakak)
Set 3 · ARK ST 23-24 AMER · AMER 10% → 14%
03
Salme HollasAttack error+3.8%
Attack error by Salme Hollas
Set 3 · ARK ST 23-23 AMER · ARK ST 87% → 90%
04
Kaitlin WhitlockAttack error+3.5%
Attack error by Kaitlin Whitlock
Set 4 · ARK ST 7-9 AMER · AMER 23% → 26%
05
Kaitlin WhitlockKill+3.5%
Kill by Kaitlin Whitlock (set by Mia Maloney)
Set 4 · ARK ST 10-9 AMER · ARK ST 80% → 83%
06
Deniz DakakBad set+3.5%
Bad set by Deniz Dakak
Set 4 · ARK ST 9-9 AMER · ARK ST 76% → 80%
07
Sam McMillanAttack error+3.4%
Sam McMillan stuffed by Calea Bush & Addison Collum
Set 4 · ARK ST 11-9 AMER · ARK ST 83% → 87%
08
Kaitlin WhitlockAttack error+3.4%
Kaitlin Whitlock stuffed by Salme Hollas
Set 3 · ARK ST 21-23 AMER · AMER 12% → 15%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Arkansas St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
22Devyn LewisOH	4	12	3	25	.360	0	0	0	5	0	0	2	1	13
7Kaitlin WhitlockOH	4	10	5	33	.152	1	0	0	6	1	1	0	1	11
6Calea BushOH	4	7	0	11	.636	0	0	0	1	0	1	5	3.5	10.5
13Haley GlunzMB	4	5	3	15	.133	0	1	0	3	0	1	2	2	8
15Addison CollumOH	4	5	5	14	.000	0	0	2	5	0	0	5	2.5	7.5
8Erin MadiganS	4	2	0	17	.118	21	1	1	1	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
11Mia MaloneyL/DS	4	2	1	8	.125	4	2	2	18	1	0	0	0	4
10Maya JoskaS	4	0	0	2	.000	11	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	0
1Keira GaringerOH	4	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	0
9Parker StearnsOH	3	3	1	7	.286	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
12Eden RoethelMB	1	0	0	2	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
Team totals		46	18	134	.209	37	4	6	47	3	3	16	11	98

Americanhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
17Salme HollasOH	4	10	7	27	.111	2	0	2	5	1	2	0	2	12
14Elise SterlingMB	4	9	4	23	.217	2	1	0	7	0	0	1	0.5	10.5
15Sam McMillanOH	4	8	7	32	.031	1	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	8.5
20Prinzez ZeckMB	4	5	3	12	.167	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	6
5Deniz DakakS	4	3	1	22	.091	32	0	1	5	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
23Carly SciborskiOPP	3	1	2	6	-.167	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
10Alex IoannouL/DS	4	2	0	2	1.000	0	1	4	4	0	0	0	0	3
19Olivia MillerDS	4	0	0	3	.000	1	1	3	5	0	0	0	0	1
3Bella MarreroL/DS	4	0	0	6	.000	2	0	1	15	0	0	0	0	0
1Sydney GuerrierOPP	3	5	2	14	.214	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
Team totals		43	26	147	.116	40	3	11	43	4	2	6	5	73

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 7 ARK ST · AMER 4

Set 1

25-16

Longest run 7 ARK STAMER 2

Set 2

25-18

Longest run 5 ARK STAMER 3

Set 3

23-25

Longest run 5 ARK STAMER 4

Set 4

25-14

Longest run 7 ARK STAMER 2

Bars above the line = American leads, below = Arkansas St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Arkansas St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	50%8/16	73%19/26
2	89%8/9	20%2/10
3	62%8/13	58%11/19
4	67%8/12	33%4/12
5	40%6/15	65%11/17
6	56%5/9	62%8/13
All	58%43/74	57%55/97

American

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	45%9/20	36%4/11
2	50%8/16	47%7/15
3	53%8/15	20%2/10
4	54%7/13	43%6/14
5	33%5/15	36%4/11
6	28%5/18	62%8/13
All	43%42/97	42%31/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

171 rallies

Rally log

#	ARK ST-AMER	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	ARK ST	ARK ST×7	Kill	Erin Madigan	set Devyn Lewis	+2.2
2	2-0	ARK ST	ARK ST×7	Attack err	Sam McMillan		+2.2
3	3-0	ARK ST	ARK ST×7	Attack err	Carly Sciborski	blk Calea Bush	+2.1
4	4-0	ARK ST	ARK ST×7	Ace	ARK ST server	aced Team	+1.9
5	5-0	ARK ST	ARK ST×7	Attack err	Prinzez Zeck		+1.7
6	6-0	ARK ST	ARK ST×7	Attack err	Sam McMillan	blk Calea Bush, Addison Collum	+1.4
7	7-0	ARK ST	ARK ST×7	Kill	Addison Collum	set Erin Madigan	+1.2
8	7-1	ARK ST	AMER	Kill	Prinzez Zeck	set Deniz Dakak	+0.8
9	7-2	AMER	AMER	Ace	AMER server	aced Mia Maloney	+1.3
10	8-2	AMER	ARK ST	Kill	Kaitlin Whitlock	set Erin Madigan	+1.2
11	8-3	ARK ST	AMER	Kill	Carly Sciborski	set Deniz Dakak	+1.0
12	9-3	AMER	ARK ST×3	Kill	Addison Collum	set Erin Madigan	+1.2
13	10-3	ARK ST	ARK ST×3	Bad set	Deniz Dakak		+1.2
14	11-3	ARK ST	ARK ST×3	Kill	Haley Glunz	set Erin Madigan	+0.9
15	11-4	ARK ST	AMER	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Deniz Dakak	+0.6
16	12-4	AMER	ARK ST	Serve err	AMER server		+0.7
17	12-5	ARK ST	AMER	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Elise Sterling	+0.6
18	12-6	AMER	AMER	Kill	Deniz Dakak	set Maya Joska	+0.9
19	13-6	AMER	ARK ST	Kill	Parker Stearns	set Maya Joska	+0.9
20	14-6	ARK ST	ARK ST	Attack err	Elise Sterling		+0.9
21	14-7	ARK ST	AMER	Kill	Deniz Dakak		+0.5
22	14-8	AMER	AMER	Ace	AMER server	aced Team	+0.9
23	15-8	AMER	ARK ST×4	Kill	Haley Glunz	set Maya Joska	+0.9
24	16-8	ARK ST	ARK ST×4	Bad set	Prinzez Zeck		+0.8
25	17-8	ARK ST	ARK ST×4	Bad set	Deniz Dakak		+0.5
26	18-8	ARK ST	ARK ST×4	Kill	Parker Stearns		+0.3
27	18-9	ARK ST	AMER	Kill	Sam McMillan	set Deniz Dakak	+0.1
28	18-10	AMER	AMER	Kill	Prinzez Zeck	set Deniz Dakak	+0.3
29	19-10	AMER	ARK ST	Bad set	Carly Sciborski		+0.3
30	19-11	ARK ST	AMER	Kill	Sam McMillan	set Deniz Dakak	+0.2
31	19-12	AMER	AMER	Attack err	Addison Collum	blk Salme Hollas	+0.4
32	20-12	AMER	ARK ST	Kill	Calea Bush	set Erin Madigan	+0.4
33	20-13	ARK ST	AMER	Attack err	Devyn Lewis		+0.2
34	21-13	AMER	ARK ST	Kill	Devyn Lewis	set Erin Madigan	+0.4
35	22-13	ARK ST	ARK ST	Attack err	Carly Sciborski	blk Eden Roethel, Devyn Lewis	+0.2
36	22-14	ARK ST	AMER	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Deniz Dakak	+0.1
37	22-15	AMER	AMER	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Deniz Dakak	+0.1
38	23-15	AMER	ARK ST	Bad set	Salme Hollas		+0.2
39	23-16	ARK ST	AMER	Bad set	Eden Roethel		+0.1
40	24-16	AMER	ARK ST	Kill	Devyn Lewis	set Maya Joska	+0.1
41	25-16	ARK ST	ARK ST	Kill	Parker Stearns	set Mia Maloney	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	AMER	AMER	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Sam McMillan	+2.1
2	1-1	AMER	ARK ST	Kill	Kaitlin Whitlock	set Erin Madigan	+1.6
3	1-2	ARK ST	AMER	Kill	Sam McMillan	set Deniz Dakak	+1.7
4	1-3	AMER	AMER	Attack err	Addison Collum		+2.2
5	2-3	AMER	ARK ST×5	Bad set	Sam McMillan		+1.7
6	3-3	ARK ST	ARK ST×5	Kill	Addison Collum	set Erin Madigan	+2.1
7	4-3	ARK ST	ARK ST×5	Kill	Addison Collum	set Sam McMillan	+2.1
8	5-3	ARK ST	ARK ST×5	Attack err	Sam McMillan		+2.1
9	6-3	ARK ST	ARK ST×5	Kill	Devyn Lewis	set Mia Maloney	+1.9
10	6-4	ARK ST	AMER	Kill	Prinzez Zeck	set Deniz Dakak	+1.5
11	6-5	AMER	AMER	Attack err	Addison Collum		+2.1
12	7-5	AMER	ARK ST	Kill	Haley Glunz	set Erin Madigan	+1.7
13	8-5	ARK ST	ARK ST	Kill	Devyn Lewis	set Erin Madigan	+2.0
14	8-6	ARK ST	AMER	Serve err	ARK ST server		+1.6
15	9-6	AMER	ARK ST	Serve err	AMER server		+1.7
16	10-6	ARK ST	ARK ST	Attack err	Salme Hollas		+1.9
17	10-7	ARK ST	AMER×3	Serve err	ARK ST server		+1.4
18	10-8	AMER	AMER×3	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Deniz Dakak	+2.0
19	10-9	AMER	AMER×3	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Deniz Dakak	+2.3
20	11-9	AMER	ARK ST	Kill	Haley Glunz	set Maya Joska	+2.0
21	12-9	ARK ST	ARK ST	Attack err	Elise Sterling		+2.3
22	12-10	ARK ST	AMER	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Deniz Dakak	+1.7
23	12-11	AMER	AMER	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Deniz Dakak	+2.4
24	13-11	AMER	ARK ST×4	Serve err	AMER server		+2.1
25	14-11	ARK ST	ARK ST×4	Attack err	Deniz Dakak		+2.4
26	15-11	ARK ST	ARK ST×4	Attack err	Elise Sterling	blk Kaitlin Whitlock	+2.1
27	16-11	ARK ST	ARK ST×4	Attack err	Salme Hollas	blk Addison Collum, Calea Bush	+1.7
28	16-12	ARK ST	AMER	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Olivia Miller	+1.1
29	16-13	AMER	AMER	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Deniz Dakak	+1.8
30	17-13	AMER	ARK ST	Serve err	AMER server		+1.8
31	18-13	ARK ST	ARK ST	Attack err	Sam McMillan		+1.7
32	18-14	ARK ST	AMER	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Deniz Dakak	+1.0
33	19-14	AMER	ARK ST	Kill	Calea Bush	set Erin Madigan	+1.4
34	19-15	ARK ST	AMER	Serve err	ARK ST server		+1.0
35	20-15	AMER	ARK ST	Attack err	Salme Hollas	blk Haley Glunz	+1.3
36	20-16	ARK ST	AMER	Kill	Sydney Guerrier	set Bella Marrero	+0.9
37	20-17	AMER	AMER	Kill	Sydney Guerrier	set Salme Hollas	+1.7
38	21-17	AMER	ARK ST	Kill	Devyn Lewis	set Maya Joska	+1.9
39	21-18	ARK ST	AMER	Attack err	Kaitlin Whitlock	blk Sydney Guerrier, Prinzez Zeck	+1.3
40	22-18	AMER	ARK ST×4	Serve err	AMER server		+1.9
41	23-18	ARK ST	ARK ST×4	Kill	Calea Bush	set Maya Joska	+1.4
42	24-18	ARK ST	ARK ST×4	Attack err	Sydney Guerrier		+0.6
43	25-18	ARK ST	ARK ST×4	Kill	Calea Bush		+0.1
Set 3
1	1-0	ARK ST	ARK ST	Attack err	Salme Hollas	blk Addison Collum, Calea Bush	+1.2
2	2-0	ARK ST	ARK ST	Bad set	Elise Sterling		+1.1
3	2-1	ARK ST	AMER×3	Serve err	ARK ST server		+0.9
4	2-2	AMER	AMER×3	Kill	Alex Ioannou	set Deniz Dakak	+1.2
5	2-3	AMER	AMER×3	Attack err	Addison Collum		+1.3
6	3-3	AMER	ARK ST	Kill	Kaitlin Whitlock	set Erin Madigan	+1.0
7	4-3	ARK ST	ARK ST	Attack err	Prinzez Zeck	blk Calea Bush, Devyn Lewis	+1.3
8	4-4	ARK ST	AMER	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Deniz Dakak	+1.0
9	5-4	AMER	ARK ST	Kill	Devyn Lewis	set Erin Madigan	+1.0
10	6-4	ARK ST	ARK ST	Bad set	Bella Marrero		+1.3
11	6-5	ARK ST	AMER	Serve err	ARK ST server		+1.0
12	7-5	AMER	ARK ST	Kill	Addison Collum	set Erin Madigan	+1.0
13	8-5	ARK ST	ARK ST	Kill	Devyn Lewis	set Erin Madigan	+1.2
14	8-6	ARK ST	AMER	Kill	Sam McMillan	set Deniz Dakak	+0.9
15	9-6	AMER	ARK ST	Kill	Devyn Lewis	set Maya Joska	+1.0
16	9-7	ARK ST	AMER×4	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Deniz Dakak	+0.9
17	9-8	AMER	AMER×4	Ace	AMER server	aced Kaitlin Whitlock	+1.3
18	9-9	AMER	AMER×4	Kill	Sam McMillan	set Bella Marrero	+1.5
19	9-10	AMER	AMER×4	Attack err	Haley Glunz		+1.6
20	10-10	AMER	ARK ST	Kill	Haley Glunz	set Maya Joska	+1.2
21	11-10	ARK ST	ARK ST	Ace	ARK ST server	aced Salme Hollas	+1.5
22	11-11	ARK ST	AMER	Kill	Sam McMillan	set Deniz Dakak	+1.3
23	12-11	AMER	ARK ST	Serve err	AMER server		+1.3
24	12-12	ARK ST	AMER	Kill	Alex Ioannou		+1.3
25	12-13	AMER	AMER	Attack err	Kaitlin Whitlock	blk Prinzez Zeck, Deniz Dakak	+1.7
26	13-13	AMER	ARK ST	Kill	Kaitlin Whitlock	set Erin Madigan	+1.4
27	13-14	ARK ST	AMER	Attack err	Devyn Lewis		+1.5
28	14-14	AMER	ARK ST	Kill	Calea Bush	set Erin Madigan	+1.4
29	14-15	ARK ST	AMER×3	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Deniz Dakak	+1.5
30	14-16	AMER	AMER×3	Attack err	Haley Glunz		+1.9
31	14-17	AMER	AMER×3	Attack err	Haley Glunz		+1.9
32	15-17	AMER	ARK ST	Kill	Devyn Lewis	set Erin Madigan	+1.3
33	15-18	ARK ST	AMER	Kill	Sydney Guerrier	set Deniz Dakak	+1.6
34	16-18	AMER	ARK ST×5	Kill	Devyn Lewis	set Maya Joska	+1.3
35	17-18	ARK ST	ARK ST×5	Kill	Kaitlin Whitlock	set Maya Joska	+1.9
36	18-18	ARK ST	ARK ST×5	Attack err	Sam McMillan		+2.2
37	19-18	ARK ST	ARK ST×5	Bad set	Deniz Dakak		+2.3
38	20-18	ARK ST	ARK ST×5	Kill	Kaitlin Whitlock	set Maya Joska	+2.2
39	20-19	ARK ST	AMER×3	Kill	Sydney Guerrier	set Deniz Dakak	+1.6
40	20-20	AMER	AMER×3	Attack err	Parker Stearns		+2.5
41	20-21	AMER	AMER×3	Bad set	Mia Maloney		+2.9
42	21-21	AMER	ARK ST	Bad set	Sam McMillan		+2.3
43	21-22	ARK ST	AMER	Attack err	Kaitlin Whitlock		+2.7
44	21-23	AMER	AMER	Attack err	Kaitlin Whitlock	blk Salme Hollas	+3.4
45	22-23	AMER	ARK ST	Serve err	AMER server		+2.0
46	23-23	ARK ST	ARK ST	Attack err	Salme Hollas		+3.8
47	23-24	ARK ST	AMER	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Deniz Dakak	+4.1
48	23-25	AMER	AMER	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Deniz Dakak	+5.4
Set 4
1	1-0	AMER	ARK ST	Serve err	AMER server		+2.2
2	1-1	ARK ST	AMER	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Deniz Dakak	+2.3
3	2-1	AMER	ARK ST	Kill	Calea Bush	set Salme Hollas	+2.3
4	2-2	ARK ST	AMER	Attack err	Devyn Lewis		+2.3
5	2-3	AMER	AMER	Attack err	Addison Collum		+3.0
6	3-3	AMER	ARK ST	Serve err	AMER server		+2.4
7	4-3	ARK ST	ARK ST	Kill	Erin Madigan		+2.9
8	4-4	ARK ST	AMER	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Deniz Dakak	+2.4
9	4-5	AMER	AMER	Kill	Sam McMillan	set Salme Hollas	+3.1
10	5-5	AMER	ARK ST	Kill	Mia Maloney	set Kaitlin Whitlock	+2.5
11	6-5	ARK ST	ARK ST	Attack err	Sydney Guerrier		+3.1
12	6-6	ARK ST	AMER	Kill	Prinzez Zeck	set Deniz Dakak	+2.5
13	6-7	AMER	AMER	Attack err	Mia Maloney	blk Elise Sterling, Sam McMillan	+3.3
14	7-7	AMER	ARK ST	Kill	Kaitlin Whitlock	set Erin Madigan	+2.6
15	7-8	ARK ST	AMER	Kill	Sydney Guerrier	set Deniz Dakak	+2.8
16	7-9	AMER	AMER	Attack err	Kaitlin Whitlock		+3.5
17	8-9	AMER	ARK ST×7	Serve err	AMER server		+2.6
18	9-9	ARK ST	ARK ST×7	Bad set	Deniz Dakak		+3.5
19	10-9	ARK ST	ARK ST×7	Kill	Kaitlin Whitlock	set Mia Maloney	+3.5
20	11-9	ARK ST	ARK ST×7	Attack err	Sam McMillan	blk Calea Bush, Addison Collum	+3.4
21	12-9	ARK ST	ARK ST×7	Attack err	Elise Sterling		+3.1
22	13-9	ARK ST	ARK ST×7	Kill	Calea Bush		+2.8
23	14-9	ARK ST	ARK ST×7	Kill	Mia Maloney	set Deniz Dakak	+2.3
24	14-10	ARK ST	AMER	Bad set	Erin Madigan		+1.5
25	15-10	AMER	ARK ST	Kill	Kaitlin Whitlock	set Mia Maloney	+1.9
26	15-11	ARK ST	AMER	Kill	Deniz Dakak	set Elise Sterling	+1.5
27	16-11	AMER	ARK ST×4	Attack err	Salme Hollas		+1.9
28	17-11	ARK ST	ARK ST×4	Ace	ARK ST server	aced Team	+1.8
29	18-11	ARK ST	ARK ST×4	Ace	ARK ST server	aced Team	+1.2
30	19-11	ARK ST	ARK ST×4	Attack err	Salme Hollas	blk Addison Collum, Haley Glunz	+0.8
31	19-12	ARK ST	AMER	Kill	Prinzez Zeck	set Deniz Dakak	+0.4
32	20-12	AMER	ARK ST	Kill	Devyn Lewis	set Erin Madigan	+0.5
33	21-12	ARK ST	ARK ST	Kill	Devyn Lewis	set Erin Madigan	+0.3
34	21-13	ARK ST	AMER	Serve err	ARK ST server		+0.1
35	21-14	AMER	AMER	Kill	Sam McMillan	set Deniz Dakak	+0.3
36	22-14	AMER	ARK ST×4	Serve err	AMER server		+0.4
37	23-14	ARK ST	ARK ST×4	Kill	Kaitlin Whitlock	set Erin Madigan	+0.2
38	24-14	ARK ST	ARK ST×4	Attack err	Sam McMillan	blk Haley Glunz, Erin Madigan	+0.0
39	25-14	ARK ST	ARK ST×4	Attack err	Prinzez Zeck		+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Arkansas St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.