FinalSat, Sep 12, 2026

AwaySUN-BELT

0:3

HomeASUN

FGCU def. Arkansas St. 3–0

(25-21, 27-25, 25-20)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
ARK ST	21	25	20	0
FGCU	25	27	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

FGCU above 50 · ARK ST below

Biggest swing: 12.6% to FGCU — set 2, ARK ST 25-27 FGCU. Kill by Erica Muhizi (set by Eliska Vytiskova). FGCU win probability 68% → 80%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

ARK ST 65.3%34.7% FGCU

Arkansas St. wins

3-0

20.2%

3-1

25.0%

3-2

20.1%

FGCU wins

3-0

7.1%

3-1

12.4%

3-2

15.2%

ARK ST break %: 42.6% vs this opp
FGCU break %: 39.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Erica MuhiziKill+12.6%
Kill by Erica Muhizi (set by Eliska Vytiskova)
Set 2 · ARK ST 25-27 FGCU · FGCU 68% → 80%
02
Devyn LewisAttack error+11.7%
Attack error by Devyn Lewis
Set 2 · ARK ST 25-26 FGCU · FGCU 56% → 68%
03
FGCU serverAce+8.4%
FGCU ace on Team
Set 2 · ARK ST 23-23 FGCU · FGCU 48% → 56%
04
Devyn LewisKill+7.7%
Kill by Devyn Lewis (set by Mia Maloney)
Set 2 · ARK ST 24-23 FGCU · ARK ST 44% → 52%
05
Maju HildebrandKill+7.7%
Kill by Maju Hildebrand (set by Dinara Sabitova)
Set 2 · ARK ST 24-24 FGCU · FGCU 48% → 56%
06
FGCU serverService error+7.7%
FGCU service error
Set 2 · ARK ST 25-24 FGCU · ARK ST 44% → 52%
07
Katie GielasKill+7.7%
Kill by Katie Gielas (set by Dinara Sabitova)
Set 2 · ARK ST 25-25 FGCU · FGCU 48% → 56%
08
Dinara SabitovaBad set+6.2%
Bad set by Dinara Sabitova
Set 2 · ARK ST 22-20 FGCU · ARK ST 48% → 54%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Arkansas St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
22Devyn LewisOH	3	6	4	20	.100	0	1	1	7	4	1	3	2.5	9.5
7Kaitlin WhitlockOH	3	8	4	17	.235	0	1	0	3	1	0	0	0	9
13Haley GlunzMB	3	5	1	9	.444	0	2	0	0	0	0	4	2	9
15Addison CollumOH	3	6	3	23	.130	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	6
8Erin MadiganS	3	1	0	4	.250	17	0	2	8	0	1	2	2	3
6Calea BushOH	2	2	2	7	.000	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	2.5
9Parker StearnsOH	3	1	0	3	.333	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
11Mia MaloneyL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	0	5	0	0	0	0	1
10Maya JoskaS	3	0	1	1	-1.000	7	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
4Ne'Khaela RogersMB	1	3	1	4	.500	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
12Eden RoethelMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1Keira GaringerOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3Libby Gee-WeilerL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		32	16	88	.182	25	5	4	31	10	2	12	8	66

FGCUhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
9Katie GielasOH	3	10	2	15	.533	0	4	6	4	0	0	2	1	15
3Julija Grubisic CaboOH	3	9	5	24	.167	1	2	1	7	1	0	1	0.5	11.5
8Abby ToeniskoetterMB	3	6	1	16	.313	1	0	3	0	1	0	5	2.5	8.5
5Erica MuhiziMB	3	5	0	7	.714	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	2.5	7.5
13Camila SotoOH	3	5	1	12	.333	0	0	0	2	0	0	3	1.5	6.5
6Eliska VytiskovaS	3	0	0	1	.000	15	2	0	3	0	0	0	0	2
12Maju HildebrandOPP	3	9	3	16	.375	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	10
4Anna MarzellaL/DS	3	1	1	4	.000	3	1	1	12	0	0	0	0	2
11Dinara SabitovaS	3	0	0	3	.000	23	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	1
17Catharina ScorzaOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14Devynn SchulzeL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		45	13	98	.327	43	10	12	32	5	1	16	9	77

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 ARK ST · FGCU 4

Set 1

21-25

Longest run 4 ARK STFGCU 4

Set 2

25-27

Longest run 3 ARK STFGCU 3

Set 3

20-25

Longest run 3 ARK STFGCU 4

Bars above the line = FGCU leads, below = Arkansas St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Arkansas St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	82%9/11	36%4/11
2	64%9/14	31%4/13
3	41%7/17	40%6/15
4	60%6/10	22%2/9
5	50%6/12	25%2/8
6	50%6/12	45%5/11
All	57%43/76	34%23/67

FGCU

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	75%9/12	27%3/11
2	56%9/16	25%3/12
3	88%7/8	61%11/18
4	70%7/10	13%1/8
5	67%6/9	54%7/13
6	50%6/12	57%8/14
All	66%44/67	43%33/76

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

143 rallies

Rally log

#	ARK ST-FGCU	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	FGCU	FGCU	Attack err	Addison Collum		+2.4
2	1-1	FGCU	ARK ST	Kill	Kaitlin Whitlock	set Erin Madigan	+1.7
3	1-2	ARK ST	FGCU	Kill	Abby Toeniskoetter	set Eliska Vytiskova	+1.8
4	2-2	FGCU	ARK ST	Kill	Devyn Lewis	set Erin Madigan	+1.7
5	2-3	ARK ST	FGCU	Attack err	Devyn Lewis	blk Julija Grubisic Cabo, Abby Toeniskoetter	+1.8
6	3-3	FGCU	ARK ST	Kill	Haley Glunz	set Erin Madigan	+1.7
7	3-4	ARK ST	FGCU	Kill	Katie Gielas	set Dinara Sabitova	+1.8
8	4-4	FGCU	ARK ST	Kill	Devyn Lewis	set Maya Joska	+1.8
9	5-4	ARK ST	ARK ST	Kill	Kaitlin Whitlock	set Maya Joska	+2.5
10	5-5	ARK ST	FGCU	Kill	Erica Muhizi	set Dinara Sabitova	+1.8
11	5-6	FGCU	FGCU	Kill	Katie Gielas	set Eliska Vytiskova	+2.8
12	6-6	FGCU	ARK ST×3	Kill	Kaitlin Whitlock	set Maya Joska	+1.9
13	7-6	ARK ST	ARK ST×3	Serve err	ARK ST server		+2.7
14	8-6	ARK ST	ARK ST×3	Ace	ARK ST server	aced Team	+2.6
15	8-7	ARK ST	FGCU	Kill	Katie Gielas	set Eliska Vytiskova	+1.8
16	8-8	FGCU	FGCU	Ace	FGCU server	aced Team	+2.8
17	9-8	FGCU	ARK ST	Serve err	FGCU server		+2.0
18	9-9	ARK ST	FGCU	Kill	Julija Grubisic Cabo	set Eliska Vytiskova	+2.0
19	10-9	FGCU	ARK ST	Kill	Addison Collum	set Erin Madigan	+2.0
20	10-10	ARK ST	FGCU	Kill	Camila Soto	set Anna Marzella	+2.1
21	11-10	FGCU	ARK ST×4	Attack err	Maju Hildebrand	blk Devyn Lewis	+2.1
22	12-10	ARK ST	ARK ST×4	Kill	Haley Glunz		+2.9
23	13-10	ARK ST	ARK ST×4	Ace	ARK ST server	aced Abby Toeniskoetter	+2.6
24	14-10	ARK ST	ARK ST×4	Attack err	Abby Toeniskoetter		+2.2
25	14-11	ARK ST	FGCU×3	Kill	Julija Grubisic Cabo	set Dinara Sabitova	+1.3
26	14-12	FGCU	FGCU×3	Kill	Julija Grubisic Cabo	set Dinara Sabitova	+2.4
27	14-13	FGCU	FGCU×3	Ace	FGCU server	aced Devyn Lewis	+3.0
28	15-13	FGCU	ARK ST	Kill	Haley Glunz	set Erin Madigan	+2.3
29	15-14	ARK ST	FGCU	Attack err	Devyn Lewis		+2.2
30	16-14	FGCU	ARK ST	Serve err	FGCU server		+2.4
31	16-15	ARK ST	FGCU	Attack err	Kaitlin Whitlock	blk Maju Hildebrand, Erica Muhizi	+2.2
32	17-15	FGCU	ARK ST	Attack err	Katie Gielas	blk Haley Glunz, Parker Stearns	+2.5
33	17-16	ARK ST	FGCU×4	Kill	Katie Gielas	set Eliska Vytiskova	+2.3
34	17-17	FGCU	FGCU×4	Ace	FGCU server	aced Team	+4.0
35	17-18	FGCU	FGCU×4	Ace	FGCU server	aced Calea Bush	+4.5
36	17-19	FGCU	FGCU×4	Attack err	Calea Bush		+4.6
37	18-19	FGCU	ARK ST	Serve err	FGCU server		+2.8
38	19-19	ARK ST	ARK ST	Kill	Calea Bush		+4.7
39	19-20	ARK ST	FGCU	Kill	Julija Grubisic Cabo	set Anna Marzella	+3.7
40	20-20	FGCU	ARK ST	Kill	Calea Bush	set Erin Madigan	+3.5
41	20-21	ARK ST	FGCU	Kill	Camila Soto	set Eliska Vytiskova	+4.1
42	20-22	FGCU	FGCU	Ace	FGCU server	aced Devyn Lewis	+5.9
43	21-22	FGCU	ARK ST	Attack err	Anna Marzella		+3.2
44	21-23	ARK ST	FGCU×3	Kill	Julija Grubisic Cabo	set Dinara Sabitova	+4.7
45	21-24	FGCU	FGCU×3	Bad set	Mia Maloney		+4.9
46	21-25	FGCU	FGCU×3	Kill	Maju Hildebrand	set Maju Hildebrand	+1.9
Set 2
1	0-1	ARK ST	FGCU	Bad set	Erin Madigan		+2.1
2	1-1	FGCU	ARK ST	Kill	Kaitlin Whitlock	set Erin Madigan	+2.0
3	1-2	ARK ST	FGCU	Kill	Abby Toeniskoetter	set Dinara Sabitova	+2.1
4	2-2	FGCU	ARK ST	Serve err	FGCU server		+2.0
5	2-3	ARK ST	FGCU	Kill	Maju Hildebrand	set Dinara Sabitova	+2.1
6	3-3	FGCU	ARK ST	Bad set	Katie Gielas		+2.1
7	4-3	ARK ST	ARK ST	Kill	Devyn Lewis		+3.0
8	4-4	ARK ST	FGCU	Kill	Maju Hildebrand	set Dinara Sabitova	+2.1
9	5-4	FGCU	ARK ST	Attack err	Katie Gielas		+2.1
10	6-4	ARK ST	ARK ST	Ace	ARK ST server	aced Julija Grubisic Cabo	+2.9
11	6-5	ARK ST	FGCU	Serve err	ARK ST server		+2.0
12	6-6	FGCU	FGCU	Kill	Camila Soto	set Anna Marzella	+3.1
13	7-6	FGCU	ARK ST×3	Serve err	FGCU server		+2.2
14	8-6	ARK ST	ARK ST×3	Kill	Kaitlin Whitlock	set Erin Madigan	+3.1
15	9-6	ARK ST	ARK ST×3	Attack err	Julija Grubisic Cabo	blk Haley Glunz, Erin Madigan	+2.8
16	9-7	ARK ST	FGCU	Kill	Julija Grubisic Cabo	set Eliska Vytiskova	+1.8
17	9-8	FGCU	FGCU	Attack err	Kaitlin Whitlock	blk Camila Soto, Abby Toeniskoetter	+3.0
18	10-8	FGCU	ARK ST	Kill	Kaitlin Whitlock	set Erin Madigan	+2.2
19	10-9	ARK ST	FGCU	Serve err	ARK ST server		+2.2
20	11-9	FGCU	ARK ST	Serve err	FGCU server		+2.3
21	11-10	ARK ST	FGCU	Kill	Abby Toeniskoetter	set Dinara Sabitova	+2.3
22	12-10	FGCU	ARK ST	Kill	Addison Collum	set Haley Glunz	+2.4
23	13-10	ARK ST	ARK ST	Ace	ARK ST server	aced Team	+3.1
24	13-11	ARK ST	FGCU	Kill	Maju Hildebrand	set Dinara Sabitova	+2.0
25	13-12	FGCU	FGCU	Kill	Katie Gielas	set Abby Toeniskoetter	+3.4
26	14-12	FGCU	ARK ST	Attack err	Maju Hildebrand		+2.6
27	15-12	ARK ST	ARK ST	Kill	Devyn Lewis	set Erin Madigan	+3.3
28	15-13	ARK ST	FGCU×3	Kill	Katie Gielas	set Dinara Sabitova	+2.1
29	15-14	FGCU	FGCU×3	Ace	FGCU server	aced Team	+3.6
30	15-15	FGCU	FGCU×3	Attack err	Calea Bush		+4.3
31	16-15	FGCU	ARK ST	Attack err	Camila Soto	blk Erin Madigan, Calea Bush	+3.1
32	16-16	ARK ST	FGCU×3	Kill	Erica Muhizi	set Eliska Vytiskova	+3.2
33	16-17	FGCU	FGCU×3	Ace	FGCU server	aced Kaitlin Whitlock	+5.0
34	16-18	FGCU	FGCU×3	Kill	Camila Soto	set Eliska Vytiskova	+5.2
35	17-18	FGCU	ARK ST	Serve err	FGCU server		+3.1
36	18-18	ARK ST	ARK ST	Attack err	Julija Grubisic Cabo	blk Erin Madigan	+5.2
37	18-19	ARK ST	FGCU	Kill	Erica Muhizi	set Eliska Vytiskova	+4.1
38	19-19	FGCU	ARK ST	Kill	Erin Madigan	set Katie Gielas	+3.9
39	20-19	ARK ST	ARK ST	Kill	Addison Collum	set Erin Madigan	+6.0
40	20-20	ARK ST	FGCU	Attack err	Kaitlin Whitlock	blk Camila Soto, Abby Toeniskoetter	+4.2
41	21-20	FGCU	ARK ST×3	Kill	Haley Glunz	set Erin Madigan	+4.6
42	22-20	ARK ST	ARK ST×3	Bad set	Dinara Sabitova		+6.2
43	23-20	ARK ST	ARK ST×3	Attack err	Julija Grubisic Cabo	blk Devyn Lewis, Haley Glunz	+4.6
44	23-21	ARK ST	FGCU×3	Kill	Maju Hildebrand	set Dinara Sabitova	+1.8
45	23-22	FGCU	FGCU×3	Kill	Maju Hildebrand	set Julija Grubisic Cabo	+4.8
46	23-23	FGCU	FGCU×3	Ace	FGCU server	aced Team	+8.4
47	24-23	FGCU	ARK ST	Kill	Devyn Lewis	set Mia Maloney	+7.7
48	24-24	ARK ST	FGCU	Kill	Maju Hildebrand	set Dinara Sabitova	+7.7
49	25-24	FGCU	ARK ST	Serve err	FGCU server		+7.7
50	25-25	ARK ST	FGCU×3	Kill	Katie Gielas	set Dinara Sabitova	+7.7
51	25-26	FGCU	FGCU×3	Attack err	Devyn Lewis		+11.7
52	25-27	FGCU	FGCU×3	Kill	Erica Muhizi	set Eliska Vytiskova	+12.6
Set 3
1	1-0	FGCU	ARK ST	Serve err	FGCU server		+1.5
2	1-1	ARK ST	FGCU	Kill	Abby Toeniskoetter	set Katie Gielas	+1.5
3	2-1	FGCU	ARK ST×3	Kill	Addison Collum	set Erin Madigan	+1.5
4	3-1	ARK ST	ARK ST×3	Attack err	Julija Grubisic Cabo	blk Devyn Lewis, Ne'Khaela Rogers	+2.1
5	4-1	ARK ST	ARK ST×3	Kill	Addison Collum		+1.9
6	4-2	ARK ST	FGCU×4	Kill	Julija Grubisic Cabo	set Dinara Sabitova	+1.3
7	4-3	FGCU	FGCU×4	Attack err	Addison Collum	blk Abby Toeniskoetter, Katie Gielas	+2.1
8	4-4	FGCU	FGCU×4	Attack err	Addison Collum		+2.3
9	4-5	FGCU	FGCU×4	Kill	Katie Gielas	set Dinara Sabitova	+2.5
10	5-5	FGCU	ARK ST	Kill	Ne'Khaela Rogers	set Erin Madigan	+1.7
11	5-6	ARK ST	FGCU	Kill	Abby Toeniskoetter	set Dinara Sabitova	+1.8
12	6-6	FGCU	ARK ST	Serve err	FGCU server		+1.7
13	6-7	ARK ST	FGCU	Kill	Maju Hildebrand	set Dinara Sabitova	+1.8
14	7-7	FGCU	ARK ST	Kill	Ne'Khaela Rogers	set Maya Joska	+1.8
15	7-8	ARK ST	FGCU	Kill	Erica Muhizi	set Eliska Vytiskova	+1.9
16	7-9	FGCU	FGCU	Attack err	Maya Joska		+2.8
17	8-9	FGCU	ARK ST	Kill	Parker Stearns	set Maya Joska	+1.8
18	9-9	ARK ST	ARK ST	Attack err	Julija Grubisic Cabo		+2.7
19	9-10	ARK ST	FGCU	Serve err	ARK ST server		+2.0
20	9-11	FGCU	FGCU	Ace	FGCU server	aced Devyn Lewis	+2.9
21	10-11	FGCU	ARK ST×3	Serve err	FGCU server		+1.9
22	11-11	ARK ST	ARK ST×3	Bad set	Eliska Vytiskova		+2.9
23	12-11	ARK ST	ARK ST×3	Ace	ARK ST server	aced Team	+2.9
24	12-12	ARK ST	FGCU	Kill	Abby Toeniskoetter	set Eliska Vytiskova	+2.1
25	13-12	FGCU	ARK ST	Attack err	Maju Hildebrand	blk Haley Glunz, Devyn Lewis	+2.1
26	13-13	ARK ST	FGCU	Kill	Julija Grubisic Cabo	set Dinara Sabitova	+2.1
27	14-13	FGCU	ARK ST	Kill	Addison Collum	set Erin Madigan	+2.2
28	14-14	ARK ST	FGCU	Kill	Anna Marzella	set Dinara Sabitova	+2.2
29	15-14	FGCU	ARK ST	Kill	Ne'Khaela Rogers	set Maya Joska	+2.3
30	15-15	ARK ST	FGCU×3	Kill	Katie Gielas	set Dinara Sabitova	+2.3
31	15-16	FGCU	FGCU×3	Attack err	Ne'Khaela Rogers	blk Katie Gielas, Erica Muhizi	+3.7
32	15-17	FGCU	FGCU×3	Ace	FGCU server	aced Devyn Lewis	+3.8
33	16-17	FGCU	ARK ST	Kill	Kaitlin Whitlock	set Maya Joska	+2.3
34	16-18	ARK ST	FGCU	Kill	Katie Gielas	set Eliska Vytiskova	+2.8
35	17-18	FGCU	ARK ST	Serve err	FGCU server		+2.4
36	18-18	ARK ST	ARK ST	Kill	Haley Glunz		+4.0
37	18-19	ARK ST	FGCU	Attack err	Kaitlin Whitlock	blk Erica Muhizi, Camila Soto	+3.2
38	19-19	FGCU	ARK ST	Kill	Kaitlin Whitlock	set Erin Madigan	+3.0
39	19-20	ARK ST	FGCU×3	Kill	Camila Soto	set Eliska Vytiskova	+3.4
40	19-21	FGCU	FGCU×3	Attack err	Haley Glunz		+5.0
41	19-22	FGCU	FGCU×3	Kill	Julija Grubisic Cabo	set Dinara Sabitova	+4.3
42	20-22	FGCU	ARK ST	Kill	Devyn Lewis	set Erin Madigan	+1.9
43	20-23	ARK ST	FGCU×3	Serve err	ARK ST server		+3.1
44	20-24	FGCU	FGCU×3	Kill	Maju Hildebrand	set Dinara Sabitova	+2.5
45	20-25	FGCU	FGCU×3	Attack err	Devyn Lewis	blk Abby Toeniskoetter, Maju Hildebrand	+0.8

Score shown after each rally, Arkansas St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.