Xavier def. Saint Louis 3–1
(25-20, 24-26, 25-19, 25-12)| Set | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4* | Sets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ST LOU | 20 | 26 | 19 | 12 | 1 |
| XAVIER | 25 | 24 | 25 | 25 | 3 |
- * Set 4: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.
RallyIQ model
Win probability
Biggest swing: 4.9% to Saint Louis — set 2, ST LOU 26-24 XAVIER. McKinley Boehm stuffed by Kayla Jansen & Tea Kalajdzic. XAVIER win probability 90% → 85%.
Before first serve
Pre-match
Saint Louis wins
Xavier wins
- ST LOU break %
- 38.1% vs this opp
- XAVIER break %
- 48.3% vs this opp
Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.
Largest win-probability swings
Top plays
- 01McKinley BoehmAttack error+4.9%
McKinley Boehm stuffed by Kayla Jansen & Tea Kalajdzic
Set 2 · ST LOU 26-24 XAVIER · ST LOU 10% → 15%
- 02McKinley BoehmKill+4.1%
Kill by McKinley Boehm (set by Jenna Barhorst)
Set 2 · ST LOU 24-24 XAVIER · XAVIER 89% → 93%
- 03ST LOU serverAce+3.1%
Saint Louis ace on Elouise Czajkowski
Set 3 · ST LOU 14-14 XAVIER · ST LOU 14% → 17%
- 04Tea KalajdzicKill+3.0%
Kill by Tea Kalajdzic (set by Jetta Brenning)
Set 2 · ST LOU 25-24 XAVIER · ST LOU 7% → 10%
- 05Tea KalajdzicAttack error+2.9%
Attack error by Tea Kalajdzic
Set 3 · ST LOU 15-17 XAVIER · XAVIER 85% → 88%
- 06XAVIER serverService error+2.7%
Xavier service error
Set 2 · ST LOU 24-22 XAVIER · ST LOU 10% → 13%
- 07XAVIER serverAce+2.7%
Xavier ace on Tamia Maddox
Set 1 · ST LOU 20-21 XAVIER · XAVIER 88% → 91%
- 08Charlotte MoriartyAttack error+2.6%
Attack error by Charlotte Moriarty
Set 1 · ST LOU 19-18 XAVIER · ST LOU 11% → 14%
Official NCAA box
Box score
| Player | S | K | E | TA | Hit% | AST | SA | SE | DIG | RE | BS | BA | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 9 | 7 | 37 | .054 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 12 | |
| 4 | 9 | 6 | 36 | .083 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 11.5 | |
| 4 | 8 | 4 | 30 | .133 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 10.5 | |
| 4 | 4 | 2 | 11 | .182 | 25 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1.5 | 5.5 | |
| 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | .125 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3.5 | 4.5 | |
| 4 | 4 | 2 | 10 | .200 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 3 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team totals | 35 | 21 | 132 | .106 | 31 | 5 | 8 | 54 | 7 | 1 | 14 | 8 | 77 |
| Player | S | K | E | TA | Hit% | AST | SA | SE | DIG | RE | BS | BA | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 20 | 6 | 44 | .318 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 23.5 | |
| 4 | 8 | 2 | 16 | .375 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 12 | |
| 4 | 11 | 5 | 29 | .207 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | |
| 4 | 9 | 2 | 13 | .538 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 10 | |
| 4 | 4 | 5 | 23 | -.043 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2.5 | 6.5 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | .250 | 19 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 4 | 5 | 0 | 6 | .833 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 5 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | -.500 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| Team totals | 60 | 24 | 145 | .248 | 53 | 7 | 10 | 68 | 5 | 1 | 16 | 9 | 99 |
Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.
Point differential by rally
Momentum
Set 1
20-25
Set 2
26-24
Set 3
19-25
Set 4*
12-25
Bars above the line = Xavier leads, below = Saint Louis leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.
Sideout and break % by rotation slot
Rotations
Saint Louis
| Slot | Sideout % | Break % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 60%9/15 | 13%1/8 |
| 2 | 38%8/21 | 25%3/12 |
| 3 | 78%7/9 | 30%3/10 |
| 4 | 64%7/11 | 63%12/19 |
| 5 | 55%6/11 | 13%1/8 |
| 6 | 86%6/7 | 25%2/8 |
| All | 58%43/74 | 34%22/65 |
Xavier
| Slot | Sideout % | Break % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 75%9/12 | 38%5/13 |
| 2 | 89%8/9 | 56%10/18 |
| 3 | 54%7/13 | 47%7/15 |
| 4 | 47%7/15 | 30%3/10 |
| 5 | 75%6/8 | 45%5/11 |
| 6 | 75%6/8 | 14%1/7 |
| All | 66%43/65 | 42%31/74 |
Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.
176 rallies
Rally log
| # | ST LOU-XAVIER | Srv | Point | End | Player | Setter / blockers / passer | WP Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Set 1 | |||||||
| 1 | 1-0 | XAVIER | ST LOU×4 | Kill | Tamia Maddox | set Jetta Brenning | +0.9 |
| 2 | 2-0 | ST LOU | ST LOU×4 | Attack err | Charlotte Moriarty | +1.2 | |
| 3 | 3-0 | ST LOU | ST LOU×4 | Bad set | Jenna Barhorst | +1.4 | |
| 4 | 4-0 | ST LOU | ST LOU×4 | Attack err | Margo Kemp | +1.5 | |
| 5 | 4-1 | ST LOU | XAVIER | Kill | Charlotte Moriarty | set Jenna Barhorst | +0.9 |
| 6 | 5-1 | XAVIER | ST LOU | Kill | Anna Boatner | set Jetta Brenning | +1.2 |
| 7 | 5-2 | ST LOU | XAVIER | Kill | Margo Kemp | set Jenna Barhorst | +0.9 |
| 8 | 6-2 | XAVIER | ST LOU×3 | Kill | Tea Kalajdzic | set Jetta Brenning | +1.2 |
| 9 | 7-2 | ST LOU | ST LOU×3 | Attack err | Ava Tilden | blk Kayla Jansen, Ellie Rink | +1.6 |
| 10 | 8-2 | ST LOU | ST LOU×3 | Ace | ST LOU server | aced Charlotte Moriarty | +1.5 |
| 11 | 8-3 | ST LOU | XAVIER | Kill | Ava Tilden | set Macy Hatkevich | +0.9 |
| 12 | 9-3 | XAVIER | ST LOU | Attack err | Catherine Flaharty | +1.2 | |
| 13 | 9-4 | ST LOU | XAVIER | Kill | McKinley Boehm | set Macy Hatkevich | +0.9 |
| 14 | 10-4 | XAVIER | ST LOU | Kill | Jetta Brenning | +1.2 | |
| 15 | 10-5 | ST LOU | XAVIER | Bad set | Jetta Brenning | +0.9 | |
| 16 | 11-5 | XAVIER | ST LOU | Kill | Anna Boatner | set Jetta Brenning | +1.3 |
| 17 | 11-6 | ST LOU | XAVIER×4 | Attack err | Tamia Maddox | +0.9 | |
| 18 | 11-7 | XAVIER | XAVIER×4 | Bad set | Jetta Brenning | +1.4 | |
| 19 | 11-8 | XAVIER | XAVIER×4 | Kill | Charlotte Moriarty | set Jenna Barhorst | +1.5 |
| 20 | 11-9 | XAVIER | XAVIER×4 | Kill | Charlotte Moriarty | set Jenna Barhorst | +1.5 |
| 21 | 12-9 | XAVIER | ST LOU | Kill | Tea Kalajdzic | set Jetta Brenning | +1.4 |
| 22 | 12-10 | ST LOU | XAVIER | Serve err | ST LOU server | +1.2 | |
| 23 | 13-10 | XAVIER | ST LOU | Kill | Tea Kalajdzic | set Jetta Brenning | +1.5 |
| 24 | 13-11 | ST LOU | XAVIER | Kill | Ava Tilden | set Kelsey Niesen | +1.2 |
| 25 | 13-12 | XAVIER | XAVIER | Kill | Quinci Thomas | set Kelsey Niesen | +1.7 |
| 26 | 14-12 | XAVIER | ST LOU | Kill | Ellie Rink | set Jetta Brenning | +1.5 |
| 27 | 15-12 | ST LOU | ST LOU | Kill | Kayla Jansen | +2.1 | |
| 28 | 15-13 | ST LOU | XAVIER | Kill | McKinley Boehm | set Jenna Barhorst | +1.3 |
| 29 | 15-14 | XAVIER | XAVIER | Ace | XAVIER server | aced Lara Zigic | +1.8 |
| 30 | 16-14 | XAVIER | ST LOU | Attack err | Catherine Flaharty | +1.7 | |
| 31 | 16-15 | ST LOU | XAVIER×3 | Serve err | ST LOU server | +1.4 | |
| 32 | 16-16 | XAVIER | XAVIER×3 | Kill | Charlotte Moriarty | set Macy Hatkevich | +2.0 |
| 33 | 16-17 | XAVIER | XAVIER×3 | Ace | XAVIER server | aced Ellie Rink | +1.9 |
| 34 | 17-17 | XAVIER | ST LOU | Kill | Tamia Maddox | set Jetta Brenning | +1.5 |
| 35 | 17-18 | ST LOU | XAVIER | Kill | McKinley Boehm | set Macy Hatkevich | +1.5 |
| 36 | 18-18 | XAVIER | ST LOU | Bad set | Kasey Quenichet | +1.6 | |
| 37 | 19-18 | ST LOU | ST LOU | Attack err | Charlotte Moriarty | +2.6 | |
| 38 | 19-19 | ST LOU | XAVIER | Kill | Charlotte Moriarty | set Macy Hatkevich | +1.8 |
| 39 | 20-19 | XAVIER | ST LOU | Serve err | XAVIER server | +2.2 | |
| 40 | 20-20 | ST LOU | XAVIER×6 | Kill | Charlotte Moriarty | set Jenna Barhorst | +2.0 |
| 41 | 20-21 | XAVIER | XAVIER×6 | Ace | XAVIER server | aced Tamia Maddox | +2.7 |
| 42 | 20-22 | XAVIER | XAVIER×6 | Kill | Ava Tilden | set Jenna Barhorst | +2.3 |
| 43 | 20-23 | XAVIER | XAVIER×6 | Attack err | Ellie Rink | blk Quinci Thomas, Margo Kemp | +1.6 |
| 44 | 20-24 | XAVIER | XAVIER×6 | Kill | Margo Kemp | set Jenna Barhorst | +0.8 |
| 45 | 20-25 | XAVIER | XAVIER×6 | Kill | Ava Tilden | set Charlotte Moriarty | +0.2 |
| Set 2 | |||||||
| 1 | 0-1 | ST LOU | XAVIER×3 | Kill | Charlotte Moriarty | set Jenna Barhorst | +0.5 |
| 2 | 0-2 | XAVIER | XAVIER×3 | Attack err | Tea Kalajdzic | blk Margo Kemp, Quinci Thomas | +0.6 |
| 3 | 0-3 | XAVIER | XAVIER×3 | Kill | Margo Kemp | set Jenna Barhorst | +0.5 |
| 4 | 1-3 | XAVIER | ST LOU | Serve err | XAVIER server | +0.4 | |
| 5 | 1-4 | ST LOU | XAVIER×5 | Serve err | ST LOU server | +0.4 | |
| 6 | 1-5 | XAVIER | XAVIER×5 | Kill | Ava Tilden | set Jetta Brenning | +0.4 |
| 7 | 1-6 | XAVIER | XAVIER×5 | Attack err | Ellie Rink | blk Quinci Thomas, McKinley Boehm | +0.3 |
| 8 | 1-7 | XAVIER | XAVIER×5 | Kill | Charlotte Moriarty | set Jenna Barhorst | +0.3 |
| 9 | 1-8 | XAVIER | XAVIER×5 | Attack err | Anna Boatner | +0.2 | |
| 10 | 2-8 | XAVIER | ST LOU | Kill | Anna Boatner | set Jetta Brenning | +0.1 |
| 11 | 2-9 | ST LOU | XAVIER | Kill | Ava Tilden | set Jenna Barhorst | +0.1 |
| 12 | 3-9 | XAVIER | ST LOU×4 | Kill | Jetta Brenning | +0.1 | |
| 13 | 4-9 | ST LOU | ST LOU×4 | Kill | Ellie Rink | set Tea Kalajdzic | +0.2 |
| 14 | 5-9 | ST LOU | ST LOU×4 | Kill | Ellie Rink | set Lara Zigic | +0.3 |
| 15 | 6-9 | ST LOU | ST LOU×4 | Ace | ST LOU server | aced Charlotte Moriarty | +0.4 |
| 16 | 6-10 | ST LOU | XAVIER | Kill | Charlotte Moriarty | set Macy Hatkevich | +0.3 |
| 17 | 6-11 | XAVIER | XAVIER | Kill | Macy Hatkevich | +0.4 | |
| 18 | 7-11 | XAVIER | ST LOU | Serve err | XAVIER server | +0.3 | |
| 19 | 8-11 | ST LOU | ST LOU | Ace | ST LOU server | aced Kasey Quenichet | +0.5 |
| 20 | 8-12 | ST LOU | XAVIER | Serve err | ST LOU server | +0.4 | |
| 21 | 9-12 | XAVIER | ST LOU | Kill | Tamia Maddox | set Jetta Brenning | +0.4 |
| 22 | 10-12 | ST LOU | ST LOU | Attack err | Catherine Flaharty | +0.6 | |
| 23 | 10-13 | ST LOU | XAVIER | Attack err | Jetta Brenning | +0.5 | |
| 24 | 11-13 | XAVIER | ST LOU | Kill | Jetta Brenning | set Jetta Brenning | +0.5 |
| 25 | 11-14 | ST LOU | XAVIER | Kill | Charlotte Moriarty | set Jenna Barhorst | +0.5 |
| 26 | 12-14 | XAVIER | ST LOU | Attack err | Ava Tilden | +0.5 | |
| 27 | 12-15 | ST LOU | XAVIER | Kill | Margo Kemp | set Jenna Barhorst | +0.5 |
| 28 | 13-15 | XAVIER | ST LOU | Kill | Tea Kalajdzic | set Jetta Brenning | +0.5 |
| 29 | 14-15 | ST LOU | ST LOU | Attack err | Quinci Thomas | +0.9 | |
| 30 | 14-16 | ST LOU | XAVIER | Serve err | ST LOU server | +0.7 | |
| 31 | 15-16 | XAVIER | ST LOU×6 | Kill | Tea Kalajdzic | set Jetta Brenning | +0.7 |
| 32 | 16-16 | ST LOU | ST LOU×6 | Attack err | Catherine Flaharty | blk Ellie Rink, Kayla Jansen | +1.2 |
| 33 | 17-16 | ST LOU | ST LOU×6 | Attack err | Ava Tilden | +1.5 | |
| 34 | 18-16 | ST LOU | ST LOU×6 | Kill | Tea Kalajdzic | set Lara Zigic | +1.7 |
| 35 | 19-16 | ST LOU | ST LOU×6 | Kill | Tea Kalajdzic | set Jetta Brenning | +1.8 |
| 36 | 20-16 | ST LOU | ST LOU×6 | Attack err | Ava Tilden | blk Kayla Jansen, Jetta Brenning | +1.6 |
| 37 | 20-17 | ST LOU | XAVIER | Kill | McKinley Boehm | set Jenna Barhorst | +0.8 |
| 38 | 21-17 | XAVIER | ST LOU | Kill | Ellie Rink | set Jetta Brenning | +1.3 |
| 39 | 21-18 | ST LOU | XAVIER | Kill | McKinley Boehm | set Jenna Barhorst | +0.8 |
| 40 | 21-19 | XAVIER | XAVIER | Kill | Charlotte Moriarty | set Jenna Barhorst | +1.4 |
| 41 | 22-19 | XAVIER | ST LOU | Attack err | Charlotte Moriarty | blk Kayla Jansen, Jetta Brenning | +1.7 |
| 42 | 22-20 | ST LOU | XAVIER | Kill | Jenna Barhorst | set Margo Kemp | +1.0 |
| 43 | 22-21 | XAVIER | XAVIER | Attack err | Tamia Maddox | +1.9 | |
| 44 | 23-21 | XAVIER | ST LOU | Serve err | XAVIER server | +2.2 | |
| 45 | 23-22 | ST LOU | XAVIER | Kill | Charlotte Moriarty | set Jenna Barhorst | +1.5 |
| 46 | 24-22 | XAVIER | ST LOU | Serve err | XAVIER server | +2.7 | |
| 47 | 24-23 | ST LOU | XAVIER | Attack err | Tea Kalajdzic | +1.5 | |
| 48 | 24-24 | XAVIER | XAVIER | Kill | McKinley Boehm | set Jenna Barhorst | +4.1 |
| 49 | 25-24 | XAVIER | ST LOU | Kill | Tea Kalajdzic | set Jetta Brenning | +3.0 |
| 50 | 26-24 | ST LOU | ST LOU | Attack err | McKinley Boehm | blk Kayla Jansen, Tea Kalajdzic | +4.9 |
| Set 3 | |||||||
| 1 | 1-0 | XAVIER | ST LOU | Kill | Ellie Rink | set Jetta Brenning | +1.6 |
| 2 | 1-1 | ST LOU | XAVIER | Kill | Charlotte Moriarty | set Macy Hatkevich | +1.4 |
| 3 | 1-2 | XAVIER | XAVIER | Attack err | Ellie Rink | +1.8 | |
| 4 | 2-2 | XAVIER | ST LOU | Kill | Ellie Rink | set Jetta Brenning | +1.5 |
| 5 | 2-3 | ST LOU | XAVIER | Serve err | ST LOU server | +1.4 | |
| 6 | 3-3 | XAVIER | ST LOU | Bad set | Macy Hatkevich | +1.5 | |
| 7 | 4-3 | ST LOU | ST LOU | Attack err | Quinci Thomas | blk Tamia Maddox | +2.3 |
| 8 | 4-4 | ST LOU | XAVIER | Kill | McKinley Boehm | set Macy Hatkevich | +1.6 |
| 9 | 4-5 | XAVIER | XAVIER | Kill | Macy Hatkevich | +2.0 | |
| 10 | 5-5 | XAVIER | ST LOU | Attack err | McKinley Boehm | +1.6 | |
| 11 | 5-6 | ST LOU | XAVIER | Kill | Ava Tilden | set Macy Hatkevich | +1.5 |
| 12 | 6-6 | XAVIER | ST LOU | Kill | Anna Boatner | set Jetta Brenning | +1.7 |
| 13 | 6-7 | ST LOU | XAVIER | Kill | Macy Hatkevich | set Kelsey Niesen | +1.6 |
| 14 | 7-7 | XAVIER | ST LOU | Serve err | XAVIER server | +1.8 | |
| 15 | 7-8 | ST LOU | XAVIER | Attack err | Ellie Rink | blk Macy Hatkevich, Margo Kemp | +1.6 |
| 16 | 8-8 | XAVIER | ST LOU | Kill | Ellie Rink | set Jetta Brenning | +1.8 |
| 17 | 8-9 | ST LOU | XAVIER×3 | Kill | Charlotte Moriarty | set Macy Hatkevich | +1.7 |
| 18 | 8-10 | XAVIER | XAVIER×3 | Ace | XAVIER server | aced Lara Zigic | +2.0 |
| 19 | 8-11 | XAVIER | XAVIER×3 | Kill | Charlotte Moriarty | set Macy Hatkevich | +1.7 |
| 20 | 9-11 | XAVIER | ST LOU | Attack err | Quinci Thomas | +1.3 | |
| 21 | 10-11 | ST LOU | ST LOU | Ace | ST LOU server | aced Kelsey Niesen | +2.1 |
| 22 | 10-12 | ST LOU | XAVIER | Kill | Quinci Thomas | set Macy Hatkevich | +1.6 |
| 23 | 11-12 | XAVIER | ST LOU | Attack err | Quinci Thomas | +1.7 | |
| 24 | 11-13 | ST LOU | XAVIER | Kill | Ava Tilden | set Macy Hatkevich | +1.7 |
| 25 | 12-13 | XAVIER | ST LOU | Kill | Jetta Brenning | set Lara Zigic | +1.8 |
| 26 | 12-14 | ST LOU | XAVIER | Serve err | ST LOU server | +1.8 | |
| 27 | 13-14 | XAVIER | ST LOU | Kill | Tea Kalajdzic | set Jetta Brenning | +1.9 |
| 28 | 14-14 | ST LOU | ST LOU | Ace | ST LOU server | aced Elouise Czajkowski | +3.1 |
| 29 | 14-15 | ST LOU | XAVIER | Serve err | ST LOU server | +2.3 | |
| 30 | 15-15 | XAVIER | ST LOU | Serve err | XAVIER server | +2.5 | |
| 31 | 15-16 | ST LOU | XAVIER | Kill | Charlotte Moriarty | set Macy Hatkevich | +2.4 |
| 32 | 15-17 | XAVIER | XAVIER | Attack err | Tea Kalajdzic | +2.9 | |
| 33 | 16-17 | XAVIER | ST LOU | Kill | Ellie Rink | set Jetta Brenning | +2.2 |
| 34 | 16-18 | ST LOU | XAVIER | Attack err | Jetta Brenning | +2.3 | |
| 35 | 17-18 | XAVIER | ST LOU | Attack err | Ava Tilden | blk Kayla Jansen, Jetta Brenning | +2.3 |
| 36 | 17-19 | ST LOU | XAVIER | Kill | Margo Kemp | set Macy Hatkevich | +2.4 |
| 37 | 17-20 | XAVIER | XAVIER | Ace | XAVIER server | aced Lara Zigic | +2.6 |
| 38 | 18-20 | XAVIER | ST LOU | Attack err | Quinci Thomas | blk Kayla Jansen, Tamia Maddox | +1.6 |
| 39 | 18-21 | ST LOU | XAVIER | Kill | Ava Tilden | set Macy Hatkevich | +2.0 |
| 40 | 18-22 | XAVIER | XAVIER | Attack err | Tamia Maddox | +1.7 | |
| 41 | 19-22 | XAVIER | ST LOU | Kill | Tamia Maddox | set Jetta Brenning | +0.8 |
| 42 | 19-23 | ST LOU | XAVIER×3 | Kill | Ava Tilden | set Macy Hatkevich | +1.2 |
| 43 | 19-24 | XAVIER | XAVIER×3 | Kill | McKinley Boehm | +0.7 | |
| 44 | 19-25 | XAVIER | XAVIER×3 | Attack err | Tea Kalajdzic | +0.1 | |
| Set 4 | |||||||
| 1 | 0-1 | ST LOU | XAVIER×5 | Kill | Margo Kemp | set Macy Hatkevich | +0.9 |
| 2 | 0-2 | XAVIER | XAVIER×5 | Attack err | Anna Boatner | blk Margo Kemp | +1.1 |
| 3 | 0-3 | XAVIER | XAVIER×5 | Bad set | Jetta Brenning | +1.0 | |
| 4 | 0-4 | XAVIER | XAVIER×5 | Attack err | Tamia Maddox | blk Charlotte Moriarty, Margo Kemp | +0.8 |
| 5 | 0-5 | XAVIER | XAVIER×5 | Kill | Charlotte Moriarty | set Macy Hatkevich | +0.7 |
| 6 | 1-5 | XAVIER | ST LOU | Attack err | Tamia Maddox | +0.5 | |
| 7 | 1-6 | ST LOU | XAVIER×6 | Kill | Margo Kemp | set Macy Hatkevich | +0.5 |
| 8 | 1-7 | XAVIER | XAVIER×6 | Kill | Margo Kemp | set Jetta Brenning | +0.5 |
| 9 | 1-8 | XAVIER | XAVIER×6 | Feed gap | Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known. | +0.4 | |
| 10 | 1-9 | XAVIER | XAVIER×6 | Kill | Ava Tilden | set Kelsey Niesen | +0.3 |
| 11 | 1-10 | XAVIER | XAVIER×6 | Attack err | Ellie Rink | blk Margo Kemp, Quinci Thomas | +0.2 |
| 12 | 1-11 | XAVIER | XAVIER×6 | Attack err | Quinci Thomas | +0.1 | |
| 13 | 2-11 | XAVIER | ST LOU | Serve err | XAVIER server | +0.1 | |
| 14 | 2-12 | ST LOU | XAVIER | Kill | Macy Hatkevich | set Kelsey Niesen | +0.1 |
| 15 | 2-13 | XAVIER | XAVIER | Attack err | Charlotte Moriarty | blk Quinci Thomas, McKinley Boehm | +0.1 |
| 16 | 3-13 | XAVIER | ST LOU | Kill | Ellie Rink | set Jetta Brenning | +0.0 |
| 17 | 3-14 | ST LOU | XAVIER | Kill | Quinci Thomas | set Macy Hatkevich | +0.0 |
| 18 | 4-14 | XAVIER | ST LOU | Serve err | XAVIER server | +0.0 | |
| 19 | 4-15 | ST LOU | XAVIER×4 | Kill | Charlotte Moriarty | set Macy Hatkevich | +0.0 |
| 20 | 4-16 | XAVIER | XAVIER×4 | Feed gap | Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known. | +0.0 | |
| 21 | 4-17 | XAVIER | XAVIER×4 | Kill | Charlotte Moriarty | set Macy Hatkevich | +0.0 |
| 22 | 4-18 | XAVIER | XAVIER×4 | Kill | McKinley Boehm | set Macy Hatkevich | +0.0 |
| 23 | 5-18 | XAVIER | ST LOU×3 | Kill | Tamia Maddox | set Lucy Rankin | +0.0 |
| 24 | 6-18 | ST LOU | ST LOU×3 | Kill | Tamia Maddox | set Lucy Rankin | +0.0 |
| 25 | 7-18 | ST LOU | ST LOU×3 | Serve err | ST LOU server | +0.0 | |
| 26 | 7-19 | ST LOU | XAVIER | Kill | Macy Hatkevich | set Macy Hatkevich | +0.0 |
| 27 | 8-19 | XAVIER | ST LOU×4 | Serve err | XAVIER server | +0.0 | |
| 28 | 9-19 | ST LOU | ST LOU×4 | Kill | Tamia Maddox | set Jetta Brenning | +0.0 |
| 29 | 10-19 | ST LOU | ST LOU×4 | Serve err | ST LOU server | +0.0 | |
| 30 | 11-19 | ST LOU | ST LOU×4 | Serve err | ST LOU server | +0.1 | |
| 31 | 11-20 | ST LOU | XAVIER×5 | Kill | Charlotte Moriarty | set Macy Hatkevich | +0.1 |
| 32 | 11-21 | XAVIER | XAVIER×5 | Attack err | Charlotte Moriarty | +0.0 | |
| 33 | 11-22 | XAVIER | XAVIER×5 | Attack err | Tea Kalajdzic | +0.0 | |
| 34 | 11-23 | XAVIER | XAVIER×5 | Kill | Gabrielle Semona | +0.0 | |
| 35 | 11-24 | XAVIER | XAVIER×5 | Kill | Quinci Thomas | set Kasey Quenichet | +0.0 |
| 36 | 12-24 | XAVIER | ST LOU | Kill | Tamia Maddox | set Jetta Brenning | +0.0 |
| 37 | 12-25 | ST LOU | XAVIER | Kill | Gabrielle Semona | set Macy Hatkevich | +0.0 |
Score shown after each rally, Saint Louis first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.