FinalSat, Sep 12, 2026

AwayATLANTIC-10

0:3

HomeMAC

Bowling Green def. Saint Louis 3–0

(25-18, 25-21, 25-16)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
ST LOU	18	21	16	0
BGSU	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

BGSU above 50 · ST LOU below

Biggest swing: 1.6% to Saint Louis — set 1, ST LOU 5-3 BGSU. Kill by Ellie Rink (set by Jetta Brenning). BGSU win probability 87% → 86%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

ST LOU 10.9%89.1% BGSU

Saint Louis wins

3-0

1.5%

3-1

3.4%

3-2

6.1%

Bowling Green wins

3-0

42.9%

3-1

31.6%

3-2

14.6%

ST LOU break %: 37.8% vs this opp
BGSU break %: 47.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Ellie RinkKill+1.6%
Kill by Ellie Rink (set by Jetta Brenning)
Set 1 · ST LOU 5-3 BGSU · ST LOU 13% → 14%
02
Avery HobsonAttack error+1.5%
Attack error by Avery Hobson
Set 2 · ST LOU 14-12 BGSU · ST LOU 8% → 9%
03
ST LOU serverAce+1.4%
Saint Louis ace on Sydnie Hernandez
Set 1 · ST LOU 4-3 BGSU · ST LOU 11% → 13%
04
Cecily WaynarKill+1.4%
Kill by Cecily Waynar (set by Amanda Otten)
Set 2 · ST LOU 17-19 BGSU · BGSU 94% → 96%
05
BGSU serverAce+1.4%
Bowling Green ace on Team
Set 1 · ST LOU 5-5 BGSU · BGSU 87% → 88%
06
Tamia MaddoxAttack error+1.4%
Tamia Maddox stuffed by Helen Wilford & Avery Hobson
Set 2 · ST LOU 14-14 BGSU · BGSU 92% → 93%
07
Helen WilfordAttack error+1.4%
Attack error by Helen Wilford
Set 2 · ST LOU 13-12 BGSU · ST LOU 6% → 8%
08
Ellie RinkKill+1.3%
Kill by Ellie Rink (set by Jetta Brenning)
Set 2 · ST LOU 19-20 BGSU · ST LOU 4% → 5%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Saint Louisaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
19Ellie RinkOH	3	14	5	43	.209	2	1	1	10	0	0	1	0.5	15.5
6Tea KalajdzicOH	3	7	6	23	.043	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	1	9
12Tamia MaddoxOH	3	6	4	17	.118	1	0	1	9	2	0	0	0	6
21Kayla JansenMB	3	2	1	7	.143	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	2	4
14Jetta BrenningS	3	1	2	9	-.111	24	0	1	8	0	1	1	1.5	2.5
15Anna BoatnerMB	3	0	0	3	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
23Lara ZigicL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	2	0	0	8	2	0	0	0	0
22Lucy RankinS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0
16J'La SparksMB	1	1	0	2	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
11Anna AlexanderOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		31	18	105	.124	31	2	3	40	7	1	8	5	55

Bowling Greenhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
23Anastasija BozicOH	3	14	5	36	.250	2	1	0	3	1	0	1	0.5	15.5
12Karli MolnauOH	3	13	3	25	.400	0	0	0	4	0	0	3	1.5	14.5
6Cecily WaynarOPP	3	6	1	10	.500	0	3	4	3	0	0	5	2.5	11.5
18Helen WilfordMB	3	4	2	10	.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	2.5	6.5
9Avery HobsonOH	3	4	2	20	.100	2	0	0	8	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
11Amanda OttenS	3	1	0	3	.333	28	2	0	9	0	1	1	1.5	4.5
1Sydnie HernandezDS	3	2	0	2	1.000	1	0	1	13	1	0	0	0	2
21Fetia RoviraMB	2	1	1	4	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	2	3
3Avery AndersDS	2	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
17Katherine EignerDS	2	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
2Molly BeattyS	2	0	0	0	–	6	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		46	14	111	.288	39	7	7	42	2	1	20	11	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 ST LOU · BGSU 6

Set 1

18-25

Longest run 5 ST LOUBGSU 6

Set 2

21-25

Longest run 4 ST LOUBGSU 4

Set 3

16-25

Longest run 3 ST LOUBGSU 6

Bars above the line = Bowling Green leads, below = Saint Louis leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Saint Louis

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	44%7/16	40%4/10
2	37%7/19	42%5/12
3	50%6/12	42%5/12
4	100%5/5	14%1/7
5	33%4/12	55%6/11
6	44%4/9	20%1/5
All	45%33/73	39%22/57

Bowling Green

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	70%7/10	50%5/10
2	54%7/13	63%12/19
3	58%7/12	63%12/19
4	63%5/8	38%3/8
5	63%5/8	44%4/9
6	67%4/6	50%4/8
All	61%35/57	55%40/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

130 rallies

Rally log

#	ST LOU-BGSU	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	ST LOU	BGSU×3	Kill	Cecily Waynar	set Amanda Otten	+0.8
2	0-2	BGSU	BGSU×3	Kill	Anastasija Bozic	set Amanda Otten	+1.0
3	0-3	BGSU	BGSU×3	Kill	Karli Molnau	set Amanda Otten	+0.8
4	1-3	BGSU	ST LOU×5	Kill	Ellie Rink	set Jetta Brenning	+0.6
5	2-3	ST LOU	ST LOU×5	Kill	Ellie Rink	set Jetta Brenning	+1.0
6	3-3	ST LOU	ST LOU×5	Kill	Tea Kalajdzic	set Jetta Brenning	+1.2
7	4-3	ST LOU	ST LOU×5	Ace	ST LOU server	aced Sydnie Hernandez	+1.4
8	5-3	ST LOU	ST LOU×5	Kill	Ellie Rink	set Jetta Brenning	+1.6
9	5-4	ST LOU	BGSU×4	Kill	Anastasija Bozic	set Amanda Otten	+1.0
10	5-5	BGSU	BGSU×4	Ace	BGSU server	aced Team	+1.4
11	5-6	BGSU	BGSU×4	Kill	Karli Molnau	set Lara Zigic	+1.3
12	5-7	BGSU	BGSU×4	Kill	Helen Wilford	set Anastasija Bozic	+1.1
13	6-7	BGSU	ST LOU	Serve err	BGSU server		+0.9
14	6-8	ST LOU	BGSU	Kill	Karli Molnau	set Amanda Otten	+0.8
15	6-9	BGSU	BGSU	Attack err	Tamia Maddox	blk Amanda Otten	+1.0
16	7-9	BGSU	ST LOU	Kill	Ellie Rink	set Jetta Brenning	+0.7
17	7-10	ST LOU	BGSU	Kill	Anastasija Bozic	set Amanda Otten	+0.7
18	8-10	BGSU	ST LOU	Kill	Ellie Rink	set Jetta Brenning	+0.8
19	8-11	ST LOU	BGSU	Kill	Avery Anders	set Jetta Brenning	+0.8
20	8-12	BGSU	BGSU	Attack err	Tea Kalajdzic	blk Amanda Otten, Cecily Waynar	+0.9
21	9-12	BGSU	ST LOU	Serve err	BGSU server		+0.6
22	9-13	ST LOU	BGSU	Kill	Anastasija Bozic	set Amanda Otten	+0.6
23	10-13	BGSU	ST LOU	Attack err	Karli Molnau		+0.6
24	11-13	ST LOU	ST LOU	Attack err	Karli Molnau	blk Kayla Jansen, Ellie Rink	+1.1
25	11-14	ST LOU	BGSU	Kill	Avery Hobson	set Amanda Otten	+0.9
26	11-15	BGSU	BGSU	Kill	Anastasija Bozic	set Amanda Otten	+0.9
27	12-15	BGSU	ST LOU	Kill	Kayla Jansen	set Jetta Brenning	+0.6
28	12-16	ST LOU	BGSU×6	Kill	Anastasija Bozic	set Amanda Otten	+0.7
29	12-17	BGSU	BGSU×6	Attack err	Ellie Rink	blk Karli Molnau, Helen Wilford	+0.7
30	12-18	BGSU	BGSU×6	Ace	BGSU server	aced Team	+0.5
31	12-19	BGSU	BGSU×6	Kill	Karli Molnau		+0.3
32	12-20	BGSU	BGSU×6	Attack err	Jetta Brenning		+0.1
33	12-21	BGSU	BGSU×6	Attack err	Kayla Jansen		+0.1
34	13-21	BGSU	ST LOU	Serve err	BGSU server		+0.0
35	14-21	ST LOU	ST LOU	Attack err	Anastasija Bozic	blk Kayla Jansen, Jetta Brenning	+0.1
36	14-22	ST LOU	BGSU	Kill	Helen Wilford	set Amanda Otten	+0.1
37	15-22	BGSU	ST LOU	Serve err	BGSU server		+0.0
38	15-23	ST LOU	BGSU	Kill	Helen Wilford	set Amanda Otten	+0.0
39	16-23	BGSU	ST LOU×3	Kill	Tamia Maddox	set Lucy Rankin	+0.0
40	17-23	ST LOU	ST LOU×3	Attack err	Helen Wilford		+0.0
41	18-23	ST LOU	ST LOU×3	Bad set	Amanda Otten		+0.1
42	18-24	ST LOU	BGSU	Serve err	ST LOU server		+0.1
43	18-25	BGSU	BGSU	Attack err	Tea Kalajdzic		+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	BGSU	ST LOU	Kill	Tea Kalajdzic	set Ellie Rink	+0.7
2	1-1	ST LOU	BGSU	Kill	Avery Hobson	set Amanda Otten	+0.6
3	1-2	BGSU	BGSU	Attack err	Ellie Rink	blk Karli Molnau, Cecily Waynar	+0.8
4	2-2	BGSU	ST LOU	Serve err	BGSU server		+0.6
5	2-3	ST LOU	BGSU	Kill	Sydnie Hernandez	set Jetta Brenning	+0.6
6	3-3	BGSU	ST LOU	Serve err	BGSU server		+0.6
7	3-4	ST LOU	BGSU	Kill	Karli Molnau	set Amanda Otten	+0.6
8	4-4	BGSU	ST LOU	Serve err	BGSU server		+0.6
9	4-5	ST LOU	BGSU×3	Kill	Anastasija Bozic	set Amanda Otten	+0.6
10	4-6	BGSU	BGSU×3	Kill	Amanda Otten	set Anastasija Bozic	+0.7
11	4-7	BGSU	BGSU×3	Ace	BGSU server	aced Team	+0.6
12	5-7	BGSU	ST LOU	Kill	Tea Kalajdzic	set Jetta Brenning	+0.5
13	5-8	ST LOU	BGSU	Kill	Avery Hobson	set Amanda Otten	+0.5
14	6-8	BGSU	ST LOU	Kill	Ellie Rink	set Jetta Brenning	+0.5
15	7-8	ST LOU	ST LOU	Attack err	Avery Hobson	blk Kayla Jansen, Tea Kalajdzic	+0.8
16	7-9	ST LOU	BGSU	Attack err	Tea Kalajdzic		+0.6
17	8-9	BGSU	ST LOU	Kill	Tea Kalajdzic	set Jetta Brenning	+0.6
18	8-10	ST LOU	BGSU	Kill	Cecily Waynar	set Amanda Otten	+0.6
19	9-10	BGSU	ST LOU	Kill	Jetta Brenning	set Lucy Rankin	+0.7
20	9-11	ST LOU	BGSU	Kill	Anastasija Bozic	set Amanda Otten	+0.6
21	10-11	BGSU	ST LOU	Kill	Tamia Maddox	set Jetta Brenning	+0.7
22	10-12	ST LOU	BGSU	Kill	Karli Molnau	set Amanda Otten	+0.7
23	11-12	BGSU	ST LOU×4	Kill	Tamia Maddox	set Jetta Brenning	+0.7
24	12-12	ST LOU	ST LOU×4	Kill	Tamia Maddox	set Lara Zigic	+1.2
25	13-12	ST LOU	ST LOU×4	Attack err	Helen Wilford		+1.4
26	14-12	ST LOU	ST LOU×4	Attack err	Avery Hobson		+1.5
27	14-13	ST LOU	BGSU×3	Kill	Anastasija Bozic	set Molly Beatty	+1.0
28	14-14	BGSU	BGSU×3	Attack err	Tamia Maddox	blk Helen Wilford, Avery Hobson	+1.4
29	14-15	BGSU	BGSU×3	Attack err	Tea Kalajdzic	blk Helen Wilford, Fetia Rovira	+1.3
30	15-15	BGSU	ST LOU	Kill	Tamia Maddox	set Jetta Brenning	+1.0
31	15-16	ST LOU	BGSU	Kill	Avery Hobson	set Molly Beatty	+1.0
32	16-16	BGSU	ST LOU	Kill	Ellie Rink	set Jetta Brenning	+1.1
33	16-17	ST LOU	BGSU	Attack err	Ellie Rink	blk Fetia Rovira, Cecily Waynar	+1.0
34	17-17	BGSU	ST LOU	Kill	Tea Kalajdzic	set Ellie Rink	+1.1
35	17-18	ST LOU	BGSU×3	Kill	Karli Molnau	set Amanda Otten	+1.1
36	17-19	BGSU	BGSU×3	Kill	Cecily Waynar	set Amanda Otten	+1.4
37	17-20	BGSU	BGSU×3	Attack err	Jetta Brenning	blk Anastasija Bozic, Cecily Waynar	+1.1
38	18-20	BGSU	ST LOU	Kill	Kayla Jansen	set Jetta Brenning	+0.7
39	19-20	ST LOU	ST LOU	Kill	Ellie Rink	set Jetta Brenning	+1.3
40	19-21	ST LOU	BGSU×4	Attack err	Ellie Rink		+1.2
41	19-22	BGSU	BGSU×4	Ace	BGSU server	aced Tamia Maddox	+1.2
42	19-23	BGSU	BGSU×4	Kill	Anastasija Bozic	set Avery Hobson	+0.7
43	19-24	BGSU	BGSU×4	Kill	Helen Wilford	set Avery Hobson	+0.3
44	20-24	BGSU	ST LOU	Kill	Tamia Maddox	set Jetta Brenning	+0.1
45	21-24	ST LOU	ST LOU	Attack err	Anastasija Bozic		+0.2
46	21-25	ST LOU	BGSU	Kill	Karli Molnau	set Amanda Otten	+0.3
Set 3
1	1-0	ST LOU	ST LOU	Attack err	Cecily Waynar		+0.4
2	2-0	ST LOU	ST LOU	Kill	Ellie Rink	set Jetta Brenning	+0.5
3	2-1	ST LOU	BGSU×6	Attack err	Tea Kalajdzic		+0.3
4	2-2	BGSU	BGSU×6	Kill	Karli Molnau	set Amanda Otten	+0.4
5	2-3	BGSU	BGSU×6	Attack err	Tea Kalajdzic		+0.4
6	2-4	BGSU	BGSU×6	Kill	Karli Molnau	set Sydnie Hernandez	+0.3
7	2-5	BGSU	BGSU×6	Kill	Anastasija Bozic	set Amanda Otten	+0.3
8	2-6	BGSU	BGSU×6	Kill	Cecily Waynar	set Jetta Brenning	+0.2
9	3-6	BGSU	ST LOU	Kill	Tea Kalajdzic	set Jetta Brenning	+0.2
10	3-7	ST LOU	BGSU	Kill	Karli Molnau	set Amanda Otten	+0.2
11	4-7	BGSU	ST LOU×3	Kill	Ellie Rink	set Jetta Brenning	+0.2
12	5-7	ST LOU	ST LOU×3	Ace	ST LOU server	aced Anastasija Bozic	+0.3
13	6-7	ST LOU	ST LOU×3	Kill	Ellie Rink	set Jetta Brenning	+0.4
14	6-8	ST LOU	BGSU×3	Serve err	ST LOU server		+0.3
15	6-9	BGSU	BGSU×3	Attack err	Tamia Maddox	blk Helen Wilford, Fetia Rovira	+0.3
16	6-10	BGSU	BGSU×3	Attack err	Tamia Maddox	blk Helen Wilford, Fetia Rovira	+0.3
17	7-10	BGSU	ST LOU	Kill	Ellie Rink	set Jetta Brenning	+0.2
18	7-11	ST LOU	BGSU	Kill	Anastasija Bozic	set Molly Beatty	+0.2
19	8-11	BGSU	ST LOU	Kill	Ellie Rink	set Jetta Brenning	+0.2
20	9-11	ST LOU	ST LOU	Kill	Tea Kalajdzic	set Lara Zigic	+0.3
21	9-12	ST LOU	BGSU×3	Kill	Fetia Rovira	set Molly Beatty	+0.3
22	9-13	BGSU	BGSU×3	Kill	Cecily Waynar	set Molly Beatty	+0.3
23	9-14	BGSU	BGSU×3	Kill	Anastasija Bozic	set Molly Beatty	+0.2
24	10-14	BGSU	ST LOU	Attack err	Fetia Rovira		+0.1
25	11-14	ST LOU	ST LOU	Attack err	Anastasija Bozic		+0.3
26	11-15	ST LOU	BGSU×6	Serve err	ST LOU server		+0.2
27	11-16	BGSU	BGSU×6	Bad set	Jetta Brenning		+0.2
28	11-17	BGSU	BGSU×6	Ace	BGSU server	aced Tamia Maddox	+0.2
29	11-18	BGSU	BGSU×6	Kill	Sydnie Hernandez	set Jetta Brenning	+0.1
30	11-19	BGSU	BGSU×6	Kill	Cecily Waynar		+0.1
31	11-20	BGSU	BGSU×6	Ace	BGSU server	aced Lara Zigic	+0.0
32	12-20	BGSU	ST LOU	Kill	J'La Sparks	set Jetta Brenning	+0.0
33	12-21	ST LOU	BGSU	Kill	Karli Molnau	set Amanda Otten	+0.0
34	12-22	BGSU	BGSU	Attack err	Ellie Rink	blk Cecily Waynar, Karli Molnau	+0.0
35	13-22	BGSU	ST LOU	Attack err	Anastasija Bozic	blk Tea Kalajdzic, Kayla Jansen	+0.0
36	14-22	ST LOU	ST LOU	Attack err	Anastasija Bozic	blk Jetta Brenning	+0.0
37	14-23	ST LOU	BGSU	Kill	Karli Molnau	set Amanda Otten	+0.0
38	14-24	BGSU	BGSU	Ace	BGSU server	aced Lara Zigic	+0.0
39	15-24	BGSU	ST LOU	Kill	Ellie Rink	set Tamia Maddox	+0.0
40	16-24	ST LOU	ST LOU	Attack err	Karli Molnau		+0.0
41	16-25	ST LOU	BGSU	Kill	Anastasija Bozic	set Amanda Otten	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Saint Louis first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.