Final · 5 setsSat, Sep 19, 2026 · Neutral site

Saint Louis def. Missouri St. 3–2

Saint Louis beat Missouri St. 3-2 (16-25, 25-22, 25-14, 20-25, 15-13) on Sat, Sep 19, 2026 at a neutral site. Ellie Rink led Saint Louis with 18 kills; Missouri St.'s Rilynn Finley had a match-high 20.

Data through · final Sep 19

Set12345Sets
ST LOU16252520153
MO ST25221425132

Win probability

Missouri St. above 50 · Saint Louis below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 4SET 510050100+22.0% ST LOUrally 200 · set 5

Biggest swing: 22.0% to Saint Louis — set 5, ST LOU 15-13 MO ST. Kill by Ellie Rink (set by Jetta Brenning). MO ST win probability 22% → 0%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

ST LOU 25.6%74.4% MO ST

Saint Louis wins

3-0
4.6%
3-1
8.8%
3-2
12.2%

Missouri St. wins

3-0
26.6%
3-1
28.5%
3-2
19.4%
ST LOU break %
38.0% vs this opp
MO ST break %
42.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Ellie RinkKill+22.0%

    Kill by Ellie Rink (set by Jetta Brenning)

    Set 5 · ST LOU 15-13 MO ST · ST LOU 78% → 100%

  2. 02
    Tea KalajdzicKill+16.1%

    Kill by Tea Kalajdzic (set by Jetta Brenning)

    Set 5 · ST LOU 14-12 MO ST · ST LOU 70% → 86%

  3. 03

    Hannah Gardner stuffed by Tamia Maddox & J'la Sparks

    Set 5 · ST LOU 11-9 MO ST · ST LOU 55% → 71%

  4. 04

    Neele'ge' Sims stuffed by Tea Kalajdzic & J'la Sparks

    Set 5 · ST LOU 10-9 MO ST · ST LOU 40% → 55%

  5. 05
    Jenna WaltersAttack error+13.9%

    Attack error by Jenna Walters

    Set 5 · ST LOU 12-9 MO ST · ST LOU 71% → 85%

  6. 06
    Missouri St.Ace+13.7%

    Missouri St. ace on Ellie Rink

    Set 5 · ST LOU 13-12 MO ST · MO ST 16% → 30%

  7. 07
    Saint LouisAce+12.7%

    Saint Louis ace on Brooke Eslinger

    Set 5 · ST LOU 9-9 MO ST · ST LOU 27% → 40%

  8. 08

    Ellie Rink stuffed by Chloe Judd & Hannah Gardner

    Set 5 · ST LOU 4-4 MO ST · MO ST 48% → 58%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
518245.35620410404220
514232.3751012004216
511318.4440002006314
54211.18244201401228
5229.000002110002
5103.333000000001
57318.22200010195.512.5
54415.00020163052.56.5
5000–6211900002
5000–001200000
5000–000000000
5000–000000000
5000–000600000
Team totals6118151.2855541063923017101
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
520538.3951003000020
511929.069252040031.514.5
511431.2260003002112
56114.35700000031.57.5
54115.200101101226
5000–3431420004
55419.053000000216
5215.200100301224
5224.000000100002
5102.5002411500002
5001.0001211710002
5000–000000000
5000–000000000
5000–000000000
5000–000000000
5000–000810000
5000–000000000
5000–000000000
Team totals6227158.2225696594214999

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 7 ST LOU · MO ST 9

Set 1

16-25

Longest run 5 ST LOUMO ST 9

Set 2

25-22

Longest run 4 ST LOUMO ST 3

Set 3

25-14

Longest run 5 ST LOUMO ST 3

Set 4

20-25

Longest run 3 ST LOUMO ST 4

Set 5

15-13

Longest run 7 ST LOUMO ST 4

Bars above the line = Missouri St. leads, below = Saint Louis leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Saint Louis

No clean sets to split.

Missouri St.

No clean sets to split.

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (0 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

200 rallies

#ST LOU-MO STSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0MO STST LOUKillAnna Alexanderset Jetta Brenning+1.5
21-1ST LOUMO STServe errSaint Louis+1.4
31-2MO STMO STKillLexi Weinbergset Hannah Gardner+2.0
42-2MO STST LOUKillAnna Boatner+1.4
52-3ST LOUMO STKillRilynn Finleyset Hannah Gardner+1.4
63-3MO STST LOUKillKayla Jansen+1.5
73-4ST LOUMO STServe errSaint Louis+1.4
83-5MO STMO STAttack errKayla Jansen+2.0
94-5MO STST LOUKillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+1.4
104-6ST LOUMO STServe errSaint Louis+1.4
115-6MO STST LOUServe errMissouri St.+1.4
125-7ST LOUMO STKillHannah Redrowset Halle Rillie+1.4
135-8MO STMO STAttack errAnna Alexander+1.9
146-8MO STST LOUServe errMissouri St.+1.2
157-8ST LOUST LOUKillTea Kalajdzicset Jetta Brenning+2.1
167-9ST LOUMO ST×9Attack errTea Kalajdzicset Lara Zigic+1.5
177-10MO STMO ST×9KillRilynn Finley+2.0
187-11MO STMO ST×9AceMissouri St.aced Ellie Rink+1.7
197-12MO STMO ST×9AceMissouri St.aced Ellie Rink+1.4
207-13MO STMO ST×9KillLexi Weinbergset Hannah Gardner+1.0
217-14MO STMO ST×9AceMissouri St.aced Anna Alexander+0.7
227-15MO STMO ST×9KillHannah Redrowset Hannah Gardner+0.5
237-16MO ST
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.3
247-17MO STMO ST×9BlockedAnna Alexanderblk Lexi Weinberg, Hannah Redrow+0.2
258-17MO STST LOUServe errMissouri St.+0.1
268-18ST LOUMO STServe errSaint Louis+0.1
278-19MO STMO STKillRilynn Finleyset Hannah Gardner+0.1
289-19MO STST LOUAttack errChloe Juddset Rilynn Finley·
2910-19ST LOUST LOUKillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning·
3010-20ST LOUMO STKillRilynn Finleyset Hannah Gardner+0.1
3110-21MO STMO STBlockedEllie Rinkblk Chloe Judd, Hannah Gardner·
3211-21MO STST LOUKillEllie Rinkset Tea Kalajdzic·
3311-22ST LOUMO STKillRilynn Finleyset Halle Rillie·
3411-23MO STMO STKillHannah Gardner·
3512-23MO STST LOU×5KillKayla Jansenset Jetta Brenning·
3613-23ST LOUST LOU×5Attack errChloe Judd·
3714-23ST LOUST LOU×5BlockedJenna Waltersblk Jetta Brenning, Kayla Jansen·
3815-23ST LOUST LOU×5KillAnna Alexanderset Lara Zigic·
3916-23ST LOUST LOU×5KillKayla Jansen·
4016-24ST LOUMO STServe errSaint Louis·
4116-25MO STMO STKillHannah Gardnerset Halle Rillie·
Set 2
11-0ST LOUST LOUKillTea Kalajdzicset Lara Zigic+1.7
21-1ST LOUMO STKillRilynn Finley+1.1
31-2MO STMO STAceMissouri St.aced Tamia Maddox+1.6
42-2MO STST LOUKillJ'la Sparksset Jetta Brenning+1.1
52-3ST LOUMO ST×3KillRilynn Finleyset Hannah Gardner+1.1
62-4MO STMO ST×3KillChloe Judd+1.6
72-5MO STMO ST×3AceMissouri St.+1.4
83-5MO STST LOU×4KillEllie Rinkset Lara Zigic+0.9
94-5ST LOU
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.6
105-5ST LOUST LOU×4KillTea Kalajdzicset Lara Zigic+1.8
116-5ST LOUST LOU×4BlockedHannah Gardnerblk Ellie Rink, Kayla Jansen+2.0
126-6ST LOUMO STServe errSaint Louis+1.3
137-6MO STST LOU×3KillKayla Jansenset Jetta Brenning+1.4
148-6ST LOUST LOU×3Attack errHannah Gardner+2.1
159-6ST LOUST LOU×3KillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+2.2
169-7ST LOUMO STKillJenna Waltersset Halle Rillie+1.3
179-8MO STMO STKillJenna Walters+2.1
1810-8MO STST LOUBlockedJenna Waltersblk Jetta Brenning+1.6
1910-9ST LOUMO STKillJenna Waltersset Halle Rillie+1.4
2011-9MO STST LOUKillJetta Brenning+1.6
2111-10ST LOUMO STBlockedJ'la Sparksblk Hannah Redrow, Jenna Walters+1.5
2212-10MO STST LOUKillJ'la Sparksset Jetta Brenning+1.7
2312-11ST LOUMO STKillLexi Weinbergset Hannah Gardner+1.5
2412-12MO STMO STAceMissouri St.aced Tamia Maddox+2.3
2513-12MO STST LOUKillTamia Maddoxset Jetta Brenning+1.7
2614-12ST LOUST LOUBlockedLexi Weinbergblk J'la Sparks, Ellie Rink+2.6
2714-13ST LOUMO STKillChloe Juddset Hannah Gardner+1.6
2815-13MO STST LOUKillTea Kalajdzicset Jetta Brenning+1.9
2916-13ST LOUST LOUBlockedRilynn Finleyblk Kayla Jansen, Tea Kalajdzic+2.7
3016-14ST LOUMO STKillRilynn Finleyset Halle Rillie+1.5
3117-14MO STST LOUKillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+2.0
3217-15ST LOUMO STKillHannah Gardnerset Halle Rillie+1.5
3317-16MO STMO STKillHannah Redrowset Halle Rillie+2.7
3418-16MO STST LOUKillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+2.2
3518-17ST LOUMO STBlockedTamia Maddoxblk Hannah Gardner, Hannah Redrow+1.9
3618-18MO STMO STAttack errTamia Maddox+3.2
3719-18MO STST LOUKillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+2.4
3819-19ST LOUMO STKillLexi Weinbergset Hannah Gardner+2.3
3920-19MO STST LOUKillTamia Maddoxset Jetta Brenning+2.7
4020-20ST LOUMO STKillHannah Gardner+2.5
4120-21MO STMO STKillRilynn Finleyset Hannah Gardner+3.9
4221-21MO STST LOU×4KillEllie Rink+2.7
4322-21ST LOUST LOU×4Attack errRilynn Finley+4.9
4423-21ST LOUST LOU×4KillTea Kalajdzicset Lara Zigic+5.1
4524-21ST LOUST LOU×4KillJ'la Sparksset Tamia Maddox+3.8
4624-22ST LOUMO STKillRilynn Finleyset Hannah Gardner+0.9
4725-22MO STST LOUKillTea Kalajdzicset Jetta Brenning+2.4
Set 3
11-0MO STST LOUKillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+2.2
22-0ST LOUST LOUAceSaint Louisaced Riley Ourth+3.3
32-1ST LOUMO STKillHannah Redrowset Hannah Gardner+2.1
43-1MO STST LOUKillKayla Jansenset Jetta Brenning+2.4
54-1ST LOUST LOUKillKayla Jansen+3.5
64-2ST LOUMO STKillLexi Weinberg+2.1
75-2MO STST LOUKillKayla Jansenset Jetta Brenning+2.5
85-3ST LOUMO STServe errSaint Louis+2.2
96-3MO STST LOUKillKayla Jansenset Jetta Brenning+2.5
107-3ST LOUST LOUKillJ'la Sparks+3.6
117-4ST LOUMO STKillHalle Kerkmanset Halle Rillie+2.1
128-4MO STST LOU×5KillJ'la Sparksset Jetta Brenning+2.6
139-4ST LOUST LOU×5AceSaint Louisaced Kya Johnson+3.5
1410-4ST LOUST LOU×5BlockedHalle Kerkmanblk Tea Kalajdzic, J'la Sparks+3.1
1511-4ST LOUST LOU×5BlockedHalle Kerkmanblk J'la Sparks+2.6
1612-4ST LOUST LOU×5Attack errHannah Redrow+2.1
1712-5ST LOUMO STKillHannah Gardnerset Halle Rillie+0.9
1813-5MO STST LOUKillTea Kalajdzicset Jetta Brenning+1.4
1913-6ST LOUMO STKillLexi Weinbergset Hannah Gardner+0.9
2014-6MO STST LOUServe errMissouri St.+1.3
2114-7ST LOUMO STKillRilynn Finley+0.8
2215-7MO STST LOUKillKayla Jansenset Jetta Brenning+1.3
2315-8ST LOUMO STAttack errKayla Jansenset Jetta Brenning+0.8
2416-8MO STST LOUKillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+1.2
2516-9ST LOUMO STServe errSaint Louis+0.7
2617-9MO STST LOUKillJetta Brenningset Tamia Maddox+1.1
2718-9ST LOUST LOUBlockedHannah Gardnerblk J'la Sparks, Tamia Maddox+1.0
2818-10ST LOUMO STKillHalle Kerkmanset Halle Rillie+0.3
2919-10MO STST LOUKillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+0.6
3019-11ST LOUMO ST×3KillHannah Gardnerset Halle Rillie+0.3
3119-12MO STMO ST×3BlockedJ'la Sparksblk Neele'ge' Sims+0.7
3219-13MO STMO ST×3KillLexi Weinberg+1.0
3320-13MO STST LOUKillTea Kalajdzicset Jetta Brenning+1.2
3420-14ST LOUMO STServe errSaint Louis+0.6
3521-14ST LOU
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.0
3622-14ST LOUST LOU×5KillEllie Rink+0.7
3723-14ST LOUST LOU×5Attack errRilynn Finley+0.3
3824-14ST LOUST LOU×5BlockedLexi Weinbergblk Ellie Rink, Kayla Jansen+0.1
3925-14ST LOUST LOU×5AceSaint Louisaced Riley Ourth·
Set 4
11-0ST LOUST LOUBlockedLexi Weinbergblk J'la Sparks, Ellie Rink+4.2
21-1ST LOUMO STServe errSaint Louis+2.7
32-1MO STST LOUKillTea Kalajdzicset Jetta Brenning+2.9
42-2ST LOUMO STKillRilynn Finleyset Hannah Gardner+2.8
52-3MO STMO STKillRilynn Finleyset Halle Rillie+4.0
63-3MO STST LOU×3KillTea Kalajdzicset Jetta Brenning+2.8
74-3ST LOUST LOU×3KillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+4.5
85-3ST LOUST LOU×3BlockedHannah Gardnerblk Jetta Brenning, Kayla Jansen+4.7
95-4ST LOUMO STKillRilynn Finleyset Brooke Eslinger+3.0
106-4MO STST LOUKillJetta Brenningset Ellie Rink+3.4
116-5ST LOUMO STKillJenna Waltersset Halle Rillie+3.0
126-6MO STMO STBlockedKayla Jansenblk Neele'ge' Sims, Jenna Walters+4.6
137-6MO STST LOUKillTamia Maddoxset Jetta Brenning+3.4
147-7ST LOUMO STKillHalle Rillieset Lexi Weinberg+3.2
158-7MO STST LOUBlockedLexi Weinbergblk Tamia Maddox, J'la Sparks+3.5
169-7ST LOU
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+5.3
179-8ST LOUMO ST×4KillLexi Weinberg+3.3
189-9MO STMO ST×4AceMissouri St.aced Ellie Rink+5.0
199-10MO STMO ST×4Attack errTea Kalajdzic+4.9
209-11MO STMO ST×4KillRilynn Finleyset Hannah Gardner+4.6
2110-11MO STST LOUKillJ'la Sparksset Jetta Brenning+3.0
2210-12ST LOUMO ST×3KillHannah Gardnerset Rilynn Finley+3.2
2310-13MO STMO ST×3BlockedJ'la Sparksblk Chloe Judd+4.2
2410-14MO STMO ST×3KillRilynn Finleyset Hannah Gardner+3.4
2511-14MO STST LOUKillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+2.0
2611-15ST LOUMO STKillRilynn Finleyset Hannah Gardner+2.3
2711-16MO STMO STKillRilynn Finley+2.7
2812-16MO STST LOUKillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+1.4
2913-16ST LOUST LOUKillJetta Brenningset Lara Zigic+2.9
3013-17ST LOUMO STKillHannah Gardnerset Halle Rillie+2.4
3114-17MO STST LOUAttack errJenna Waltersset Halle Rillie+2.0
3214-18ST LOUMO STKillHannah Gardnerset Halle Rillie+2.5
3314-19MO STMO STAttack errJetta Brenning+2.6
3415-19MO STST LOUAttack errHannah Gardnerset Kya Johnson+1.2
3515-20ST LOUMO STKillNeele'ge' Simsset Halle Rillie+1.7
3615-21MO STMO STAceMissouri St.aced Tamia Maddox+1.4
3716-21MO STST LOUKillTamia Maddoxset Jetta Brenning+0.5
3816-22ST LOUMO STBlockedTamia Maddoxblk Lexi Weinberg, Neele'ge' Sims+0.8
3917-22MO STST LOUKillTea Kalajdzicset Jetta Brenning+0.4
4017-23ST LOUMO STKillLexi Weinbergset Riley Ourth+0.6
4118-23MO STST LOUKillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+0.2
4219-23ST LOUST LOUBlockedRilynn Finleyblk Tea Kalajdzic, Kayla Jansen+0.7
4319-24ST LOUMO STKillRilynn Finleyset Hannah Gardner+0.9
4420-24MO STST LOUServe errMissouri St.+0.2
4520-25ST LOUMO STKillRilynn Finleyset Halle Rillie+0.9
Set 5
10-1MO STMO STKillLexi Weinberg+8.3
21-1MO STST LOU×3KillTea Kalajdzicset Jetta Brenning+5.8
32-1ST LOUST LOU×3KillKayla Jansenset Jetta Brenning+9.4
43-1ST LOU
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+9.9
53-2ST LOUMO STAttack errJetta Brenningset Ellie Rink+6.1
64-2MO STST LOUKillTea Kalajdzicset Jetta Brenning+7.2
74-3ST LOUMO ST×4KillChloe Juddset Hannah Gardner+6.3
84-4MO STMO ST×4BlockedEllie Rinkblk Chloe Judd, Hannah Gardner+10.0
94-5MO STMO ST×4KillChloe Juddset Halle Rillie+9.9
104-6MO STMO ST×4KillHannah Gardnerset Halle Rillie+9.2
115-6MO STST LOUAttack errHannah Gardnerset Halle Rillie+5.9
125-7ST LOUMO STAttack errTamia Maddoxset Lara Zigic+6.4
136-7MO STST LOUKillKayla Jansenset Jetta Brenning+6.1
146-8ST LOUMO STKillJenna Waltersset Halle Rillie+6.8
156-9MO STMO STKillHalle Rillieset Chloe Judd+8.5
167-9MO STST LOU×7BlockedHannah Gardnerblk Tamia Maddox, J'la Sparks+4.7
178-9ST LOUST LOU×7KillJ'la Sparksset Jetta Brenning+9.6
189-9ST LOUST LOU×7AceSaint Louisaced Brooke Eslinger+12.7
1910-9ST LOUST LOU×7BlockedNeele'ge' Simsblk Tea Kalajdzic, J'la Sparks+15.1
2011-9ST LOUST LOU×7BlockedHannah Gardnerblk Tamia Maddox, J'la Sparks+15.8
2112-9ST LOUST LOU×7Attack errJenna Walters+13.9
2213-9ST LOUST LOU×7BlockedHannah Gardnerblk J'la Sparks, Tamia Maddox+9.6
2313-10ST LOUMO ST×3KillHannah Redrowset Halle Rillie+2.8
2413-11MO STMO ST×3KillHannah Redrowset Hannah Gardner+7.8
2513-12MO STMO ST×3AceMissouri St.aced Ellie Rink+13.7
2614-12MO STST LOUKillTea Kalajdzicset Jetta Brenning+16.1
2714-13ST LOUMO STKillLexi Weinbergset Hannah Gardner+8.3
2815-13MO STST LOUKillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+22.0

Score shown after each rally, Saint Louis first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).