Final · 4 setsFri, Oct 2, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Saint Louis def. Duquesne 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Duquesne 72.7% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 2, 5:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Saint Louis beat visiting Duquesne 3-1 (16-25, 25-20, 25-21, 25-17) on Fri, Oct 2, 2026. Tea Kalajdzic led Saint Louis with 16 kills; Duquesne's Simone Searles had a match-high 21.

Data through · final Oct 2

Set1234Sets
DUQSNE252021171
ST LOU162525253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

RallyIQ gave Saint Louis 27%. Saint Louis won anyway.

The match turned twice; each line shows Saint Louis's RallyIQ win probability at the start and end of the stretch. Duquesne went in at 73% by RallyIQ.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 2 · Duquesne 4–3 Saint Louis

    The bottom for Saint Louis, then 22 of the next 38 rallies and the set, 25–20.

    Saint Louis 14% → 32%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 4 · Duquesne 8–11 Saint Louis

    5 straight Saint Louis points stretched an 11–8 lead to 16–8.

    Saint Louis 79% → 96%

Saint Louis above 50Duquesne belowMax swing 6.0%

DuquesneSaint Louis

Sideout %
Duquesne 63.3·Saint Louis 69.0
Break %
Duquesne 31.0·Saint Louis 36.7
Hitting
Duquesne .172·Saint Louis .248
Longest run
Duquesne 6·Saint Louis 5

Ellie Rink
4 kills inside the turning points, 10 K and .047 for the match (14.5 points).

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Saint Louis above 50 · Duquesne below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+6.0% ST LOUrally 174 · set 4

Biggest swing: 6.0% to Saint Louis — set 3, DUQSNE 18-21 ST LOU. Kill by J'La Sparks (set by Jetta Brenning). ST LOU win probability 47% → 53%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

DUQSNE 57.8%42.2% ST LOU

Duquesne wins

3-0
16.1%
3-1
22.0%
3-2
19.7%

Saint Louis wins

3-0
9.5%
3-1
15.5%
3-2
17.2%
DUQSNE break %
43.5% vs this opp
ST LOU break %
42.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    J'La SparksKill+6.0%

    Kill by J'La Sparks (set by Jetta Brenning)

    Set 3 · DUQSNE 18-21 ST LOU · ST LOU 47% → 53%

  2. 02

    Kill by Anna Alexander (set by Jetta Brenning)

    Set 3 · DUQSNE 21-24 ST LOU · ST LOU 54% → 59%

  3. 03
    DuquesneService error+5.2%

    Duquesne service error

    Set 3 · DUQSNE 20-23 ST LOU · ST LOU 52% → 57%

  4. 04
    Londyn StoneAttack error+5.1%

    Attack error by Londyn Stone

    Set 3 · DUQSNE 14-16 ST LOU · ST LOU 39% → 44%

  5. 05

    Kill by Jetta Brenning (set by Anna Alexander)

    Set 3 · DUQSNE 18-20 ST LOU · ST LOU 42% → 47%

  6. 06
    Tea KalajdzicKill+4.9%

    Kill by Tea Kalajdzic (set by Lara Zigic)

    Set 3 · DUQSNE 19-22 ST LOU · ST LOU 50% → 55%

  7. 07
    Kayla JansenKill+4.7%

    Kill by Kayla Jansen (set by Jetta Brenning)

    Set 3 · DUQSNE 17-19 ST LOU · ST LOU 41% → 46%

  8. 08
    Tea KalajdzicKill+4.6%

    Kill by Tea Kalajdzic (set by Jetta Brenning)

    Set 3 · DUQSNE 13-14 ST LOU · ST LOU 34% → 38%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
421740.3500029004223
412940.07501260010.513.5
44313.07701240233.58.5
46325.120300820006
4306.50000000052.55.5
43410-.10039031000425
4000–3201900002
3000–000000000
Team totals4926134.172454956221710.586
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
410843.04712182132.514.5
48219.31643047008412
47319.21100000031.58.5
4319.222100001858
4000–002500000
1114.000001110001
416324.5420001000016
412327.3333045100012
4000–8002000000
2000–000100000
Team totals5721145.248562124842221395

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Duquesne vs Saint Louis

Season series · Series tied 1-1

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 DUQSNE · ST LOU 5

Set 1

25-16

Longest run 6 DUQSNEST LOU 2

Set 2

20-25

Longest run 3 DUQSNEST LOU 4

Set 3

21-25

Longest run 2 DUQSNEST LOU 3

Set 4

17-25

Longest run 3 DUQSNEST LOU 5

Bars above the line = Saint Louis leads, below = Duquesne leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Duquesne

SlotSideout %Break %
1
75%9/12
0%0/8
2
64%9/14
31%4/13
3
100%8/8
27%3/11
4
78%7/9
33%4/12
5
64%7/11
53%8/15
6
58%7/12
0%0/7
All
71%47/66
29%19/66

Saint Louis

SlotSideout %Break %
1
82%9/11
47%7/15
2
62%8/13
25%3/12
3
73%8/11
20%2/10
4
53%8/15
11%1/9
5
78%7/9
30%3/10
6
100%7/7
30%3/10
All
71%47/66
29%19/66

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

174 rallies

#DUQSNE-ST LOUSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1ST LOUST LOUBlockedEmersen Schromblk Jetta Brenning, Kayla Jansen+2.1
21-1ST LOUDUQSNEBlockedEllie Rinkblk Chloe Wilmot, Jordan Robertson+1.6
31-2DUQSNEST LOUKillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+1.7
42-2ST LOUDUQSNE×3KillEmersen Schromset Chloe Wilmot+1.6
53-2DUQSNEDUQSNE×3Attack errJetta Brenning+2.1
64-2DUQSNEDUQSNE×3BlockedTamia Maddoxblk Madeleine Bush, Simone Searles+2.0
74-3DUQSNEST LOUServe errDuquesne+1.5
85-3ST LOUDUQSNE×3KillSimone Searlesset Chloe Wilmot+1.5
96-3DUQSNEDUQSNE×3KillLondyn Stoneset Chloe Wilmot+1.8
107-3DUQSNEDUQSNE×3KillMadeleine Bushset Chloe Wilmot+1.6
117-4DUQSNEST LOUServe errDuquesne+1.1
128-4ST LOUDUQSNEServe errSaint Louis+1.2
139-4DUQSNEDUQSNEKillSimone Searlesset Delaney McIntosh+1.4
149-5DUQSNEST LOUKillJ'La Sparksset Jetta Brenning+0.9
1510-5ST LOUDUQSNEServe errSaint Louis+1.1
1610-6DUQSNEST LOUKillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+0.9
1711-6ST LOUDUQSNEAttack errTea Kalajdzic+1.1
1811-7DUQSNEST LOUKillTea Kalajdzicset Jetta Brenning+0.9
1911-8ST LOUST LOUAttack errChloe Wilmot+1.6
2012-8ST LOUDUQSNEServe errSaint Louis+1.3
2112-9DUQSNEST LOUKillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+1.2
2212-10ST LOUST LOUKillTamia Maddox+2.0
2313-10ST LOUDUQSNEServe errSaint Louis+1.7
2413-11DUQSNEST LOUAttack errSimone Searles+1.6
2514-11ST LOUDUQSNEKillSimone Searlesset Chloe Wilmot+1.7
2614-12DUQSNEST LOUServe errDuquesne+1.6
2715-12ST LOUDUQSNE×6KillSimone Searlesset Chloe Wilmot+1.8
2816-12DUQSNEDUQSNE×6Attack errJ'La Sparks+2.0
2917-12DUQSNEDUQSNE×6AceDuquesneaced Tamia Maddox+1.5
3018-12DUQSNEDUQSNE×6KillJordan Robertsonset Chloe Wilmot+1.0
3119-12DUQSNEDUQSNE×6KillJordan Robertson+0.7
3220-12DUQSNEDUQSNE×6AceDuquesneaced Ellie Rink+0.4
3320-13DUQSNEST LOUKillAnna Alexanderset Lara Zigic+0.1
3421-13ST LOUDUQSNEKillSimone Searlesset Chloe Wilmot+0.2
3521-14DUQSNEST LOUServe errDuquesne+0.1
3622-14ST LOUDUQSNEAttack errTea Kalajdzic+0.2
3722-15DUQSNEST LOUKillTea Kalajdzicset Jetta Brenning+0.1
3823-15ST LOUDUQSNEServe errSaint Louis+0.1
3924-15DUQSNEDUQSNEBlockedEllie Rinkblk Chloe Wilmot, Madeleine Bush·
4024-16DUQSNEST LOUAttack errEmersen Schrom·
4125-16ST LOUDUQSNEKillLondyn Stoneset Chloe Wilmot·
Set 2
10-1DUQSNEST LOUKillAnna Alexanderset Jetta Brenning+1.3
21-1ST LOUDUQSNEServe errSaint Louis+1.3
31-2DUQSNEST LOUKillKayla Jansenset Jetta Brenning+1.4
42-2ST LOUDUQSNEKillChloe Wilmotset Londyn Stone+1.3
52-3DUQSNEST LOUServe errDuquesne+1.4
63-3ST LOUDUQSNEAttack errEllie Rink+1.3
74-3DUQSNEDUQSNEAceDuquesneaced Anna Alexander+1.7
84-4DUQSNEST LOUKillJ'La Sparksset Jetta Brenning+1.3
95-4ST LOUDUQSNEKillSimone Searlesset Chloe Wilmot+1.3
105-5DUQSNEST LOUKillJ'La Sparksset Jetta Brenning+1.4
115-6ST LOUST LOUKillAnna Alexanderset Jetta Brenning+1.9
126-6ST LOUDUQSNEKillSimone Searlesset Chloe Wilmot+1.4
136-7DUQSNEST LOUKillTea Kalajdzicset Jetta Brenning+1.5
146-8ST LOUST LOUKillJetta Brenningset Lara Zigic+2.1
157-8ST LOUDUQSNEKillEmersen Schromset Chloe Wilmot+1.5
167-9DUQSNEST LOUBlockedEmersen Schromblk Jetta Brenning, Kayla Jansen+1.7
178-9ST LOUDUQSNEKillChloe Wilmotset Delaney McIntosh+1.5
188-10DUQSNEST LOUServe errDuquesne+1.7
199-10ST LOUDUQSNEKillEmersen Schromset Chloe Wilmot+1.6
209-11DUQSNEST LOUKillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+1.8
2110-11ST LOUDUQSNEServe errSaint Louis+1.6
2210-12DUQSNEST LOUBlockedSimone Searlesblk J'La Sparks, Ellie Rink+1.9
2311-12ST LOUDUQSNE×3KillSimone Searlesset Chloe Wilmot+1.7
2412-12DUQSNEDUQSNE×3Attack errAnna Alexander+2.3
2513-12DUQSNEDUQSNE×3KillLondyn Stoneset Chloe Wilmot+2.3
2613-13DUQSNEST LOUAttack errEmersen Schrom+1.8
2713-14ST LOUST LOUKillAnna Alexanderset Lara Zigic+2.6
2814-14ST LOUDUQSNEKillSimone Searlesset Londyn Stone+1.9
2914-15DUQSNEST LOU×4KillTea Kalajdzicset Jetta Brenning+2.1
3014-16ST LOUST LOU×4Attack errJordan Robertson+2.9
3114-17ST LOUST LOU×4KillJetta Brenningset Lara Zigic+2.8
3214-18ST LOUST LOU×4KillAnna Alexanderset Jetta Brenning+2.5
3315-18ST LOUDUQSNEKillEmersen Schromset Londyn Stone+1.4
3415-19DUQSNEST LOUKillKayla Jansenset Jetta Brenning+2.0
3516-19ST LOUDUQSNE×3KillEmersen Schromset Chloe Wilmot+1.4
3617-19DUQSNEDUQSNE×3Attack errEllie Rink+2.4
3718-19DUQSNEDUQSNE×3KillEmersen Schromset Chloe Wilmot+3.0
3818-20DUQSNEST LOU×3Serve errDuquesne+2.8
3918-21ST LOUST LOU×3KillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+3.4
4018-22ST LOUST LOU×3KillJetta Brenningset Ellie Rink+2.6
4119-22ST LOUDUQSNEKillLondyn Stoneset Chloe Wilmot+1.1
4219-23DUQSNEST LOUKillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+2.0
4320-23ST LOUDUQSNEKillSimone Searlesset Chloe Wilmot+0.9
4420-24DUQSNEST LOUKillJ'La Sparksset Jetta Brenning+1.8
4520-25ST LOUST LOUKillTea Kalajdzicset Lara Zigic+0.8
Set 3
11-0ST LOUDUQSNEKillEmersen Schromset Chloe Wilmot+2.1
22-0DUQSNEDUQSNEKillEmersen Schromset Londyn Stone+2.7
32-1DUQSNEST LOUKillJetta Brenningset Kayla Jansen+2.0
43-1ST LOUDUQSNEKillEmersen Schromset Chloe Wilmot+2.0
53-2DUQSNEST LOUKillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+2.1
64-2ST LOUDUQSNEKillSimone Searlesset Chloe Wilmot+2.1
75-2DUQSNEDUQSNEAttack errEllie Rink+2.6
85-3DUQSNEST LOUKillJetta Brenningset Anna Alexander+1.9
96-3ST LOUDUQSNEServe errSaint Louis+2.0
106-4DUQSNEST LOUKillTea Kalajdzicset Jetta Brenning+1.9
116-5ST LOUST LOUKillTea Kalajdzicset Jetta Brenning+2.9
127-5ST LOUDUQSNEKillSimone Searlesset Chloe Wilmot+2.3
137-6DUQSNEST LOUKillJ'La Sparksset Jetta Brenning+2.3
148-6ST LOUDUQSNEBlockedTea Kalajdzicblk Jordan Robertson+2.3
158-7DUQSNEST LOUKillTea Kalajdzicset Jetta Brenning+2.4
169-7ST LOUDUQSNEKillJordan Robertsonset Chloe Wilmot+2.4
179-8DUQSNEST LOU×3KillAnna Alexanderset Jetta Brenning+2.4
189-9ST LOUST LOU×3BlockedEmersen Schromblk Kayla Jansen, Jetta Brenning+3.6
199-10ST LOUST LOU×3KillJetta Brenningset Anna Alexander+3.9
2010-10ST LOUDUQSNEKillLondyn Stoneset Chloe Wilmot+2.9
2111-10DUQSNEDUQSNEAttack errJetta Brenning+3.8
2211-11DUQSNEST LOUServe errDuquesne+3.0
2312-11ST LOUDUQSNEKillEmersen Schromset Chloe Wilmot+2.9
2412-12DUQSNEST LOUAttack errSimone Searles+3.1
2513-12ST LOUDUQSNEKillLondyn Stoneset Chloe Wilmot+3.1
2613-13DUQSNEST LOUKillTea Kalajdzicset Jetta Brenning+3.2
2713-14ST LOUST LOUKillTea Kalajdzicset Jetta Brenning+4.6
2814-14ST LOUDUQSNEKillSimone Searlesset Chloe Wilmot+3.4
2914-15DUQSNEST LOUKillAnna Alexanderset Jetta Brenning+3.7
3014-16ST LOUST LOUAttack errLondyn Stone+5.1
3115-16ST LOUDUQSNEKillEmersen Schromset Chloe Wilmot+3.4
3215-17DUQSNEST LOUKillAnna Alexanderset Jetta Brenning+4.1
3316-17ST LOUDUQSNEKillJordan Robertsonset Chloe Wilmot+3.6
3416-18DUQSNEST LOUKillAnna Alexanderset Lara Zigic+4.4
3517-18ST LOUDUQSNEServe errSaint Louis+3.8
3617-19DUQSNEST LOUKillKayla Jansenset Jetta Brenning+4.7
3718-19ST LOUDUQSNEKillSimone Searlesset Chloe Wilmot+4.0
3818-20DUQSNEST LOUKillJetta Brenningset Anna Alexander+5.0
3918-21ST LOUST LOUKillJ'La Sparksset Jetta Brenning+6.0
4019-21ST LOUDUQSNEServe errSaint Louis+3.3
4119-22DUQSNEST LOUKillTea Kalajdzicset Lara Zigic+4.9
4220-22ST LOUDUQSNEKillSimone Searlesset Chloe Wilmot+3.2
4320-23DUQSNEST LOUServe errDuquesne+5.2
4421-23ST LOUDUQSNEKillChloe Wilmotset Delaney McIntosh+2.9
4521-24DUQSNEST LOUKillAnna Alexanderset Jetta Brenning+5.4
4621-25ST LOUST LOUAttack errChloe Wilmot+3.0
Set 4
11-0DUQSNEDUQSNEAttack errEllie Rink+3.6
21-1DUQSNEST LOU×3BlockedEmersen Schromblk Kayla Jansen, Jetta Brenning+2.8
31-2ST LOUST LOU×3BlockedSimone Searlesblk Ellie Rink, Kayla Jansen+4.0
41-3ST LOUST LOU×3KillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+4.2
52-3ST LOUDUQSNEServe errSaint Louis+3.0
62-4DUQSNEST LOUBlockedChloe Wilmotblk Ellie Rink+3.3
72-5ST LOUST LOUAttack errEmersen Schrom+4.4
83-5ST LOUDUQSNEKillEmersen Schromset Chloe Wilmot+3.0
93-6DUQSNEST LOUKillJ'La Sparksset Jetta Brenning+3.5
104-6ST LOUDUQSNEBlockedJ'La Sparksblk Simone Searles, Madeleine Bush+3.1
114-7DUQSNEST LOUKillTea Kalajdzicset Jetta Brenning+3.6
124-8ST LOU
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+4.5
135-8ST LOUDUQSNEKillSimone Searlesset Chloe Wilmot+3.0
145-9DUQSNEST LOUKillTea Kalajdzicset Jetta Brenning+3.6
156-9ST LOUDUQSNEKillSimone Searlesset Chloe Wilmot+3.0
166-10DUQSNEST LOUKillAnna Alexanderset Jetta Brenning+3.6
176-11ST LOUST LOUBlockedLondyn Stoneblk Kayla Jansen, Jetta Brenning+4.4
187-11ST LOUDUQSNEBlockedKayla Jansenblk Jordan Robertson+2.7
198-11DUQSNEDUQSNEBlockedAnna Alexanderblk Chloe Wilmot, Jordan Robertson+4.1
208-12DUQSNEST LOU×5BlockedJordan Robertsonblk Kayla Jansen, Jetta Brenning+3.8
218-13ST LOUST LOU×5Attack errJordan Robertson+4.5
228-14ST LOUST LOU×5KillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+3.9
238-15ST LOUST LOU×5BlockedChloe Wilmotblk Kayla Jansen+3.1
248-16ST LOUST LOU×5BlockedEmersen Schromblk Kayla Jansen, Jetta Brenning+2.3
259-16ST LOUDUQSNEServe errSaint Louis+1.1
2610-16DUQSNEDUQSNEAceDuquesneaced Ellie Rink+2.0
2710-17DUQSNEST LOU×4KillJetta Brenningset Lara Zigic+2.2
2810-18ST LOUST LOU×4Attack errLondyn Stone+2.0
2910-19ST LOUST LOU×4KillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+1.3
3010-20ST LOUST LOU×4BlockedEmersen Schromblk J'La Sparks, Jetta Brenning+0.7
3111-20ST LOUDUQSNE×3BlockedEllie Rinkblk Chloe Wilmot, Madeleine Bush+0.2
3212-20DUQSNEDUQSNE×3Attack errEllie Rink+0.5
3313-20DUQSNEDUQSNE×3BlockedJ'La Sparksblk Simone Searles, Madeleine Bush, Emersen Schrom+0.8
3413-21DUQSNEST LOUBlockedSimone Searlesblk Ellie Rink, J'La Sparks+1.0
3514-21ST LOUDUQSNEKillSimone Searlesset Chloe Wilmot+0.4
3615-21DUQSNEDUQSNEKillMadeleine Bush+1.0
3715-22DUQSNEST LOU×3Attack errSimone Searles+1.3
3815-23ST LOUST LOU×3KillTea Kalajdzicset Jetta Brenning+0.7
3915-24ST LOUST LOU×3AceSaint Louisaced Londyn Stone+0.2
4016-24ST LOUDUQSNEKillSimone Searlesset Chloe Wilmot·
4117-24DUQSNE
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.1
4217-25DUQSNEST LOUKillTea Kalajdzicset Jetta Brenning+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Duquesne first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).