FinalSat, Sep 12, 2026

AwayWCC

0:3

HomeCUSA

New Mexico St. def. Pacific 3–0

(25-20, 25-11, 25-17)

Set	1*	2	3	Sets
PACIF	20	11	17	0
NM ST	25	25	25	3

* Set 1: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.

RallyIQ model

Win probability

NM ST above 50 · PACIF below

Biggest swing: 1.5% to Pacific — set 1, PACIF 12-11 NM ST. Pacific ace on Jacqueline Corcoran. NM ST win probability 91% → 90%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

PACIF 7.5%92.5% NM ST

Pacific wins

3-0

0.9%

3-1

2.2%

3-2

4.4%

New Mexico St. wins

3-0

49.2%

3-1

31.1%

3-2

12.2%

PACIF break %: 37.9% vs this opp
NM ST break %: 48.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
PACIF serverAce+1.5%
Pacific ace on Jacqueline Corcoran
Set 1 · PACIF 12-11 NM ST · PACIF 9% → 10%
02
Lilli SaldivarAttack error+1.4%
Lilli Saldivar stuffed by Ellie Prindl & Hanna Vorhies
Set 1 · PACIF 7-3 NM ST · PACIF 11% → 13%
03
Lilli SaldivarAttack error+1.3%
Lilli Saldivar stuffed by Ellie Prindl & Julia Porath
Set 1 · PACIF 5-2 NM ST · PACIF 10% → 11%
04
Jaelynn KohliKill+1.3%
Kill by Jaelynn Kohli
Set 1 · PACIF 12-13 NM ST · NM ST 91% → 92%
05
Jacqueline CorcoranKill+1.2%
Kill by Jacqueline Corcoran (set by Katrina Catalan)
Set 1 · PACIF 7-5 NM ST · NM ST 88% → 89%
06
Ashley HermanKill+1.2%
Kill by Ashley Herman (set by Katrina Catalan)
Set 1 · PACIF 7-6 NM ST · NM ST 89% → 90%
07
Adeline SirbuKill+1.2%
Kill by Adeline Sirbu (set by Gwendolyn Hansen)
Set 1 · PACIF 10-10 NM ST · PACIF 7% → 8%
08
Maggie LightheartKill+1.1%
Kill by Maggie Lightheart (set by Makayla Martinez)
Set 1 · PACIF 12-14 NM ST · NM ST 92% → 93%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Pacificaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
13Nicole ZakeOH	3	6	4	25	.080	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	6
1Alessia CouchondS	3	2	0	2	1.000	10	2	0	4	0	0	0	4
19Adeline SirbuMB	3	3	0	8	.375	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.5	3.5
3Ellie PrindlMB	3	1	0	7	.143	1	0	2	0	0	3	1.5	2.5
8Vanessa ZussinoOH	3	1	4	8	-.375	1	1	0	10	2	0	0	2
9Julia PorathOPP	2	2	4	14	-.143	0	0	0	2	0	2	1	3
15Hanna VorhiesMB	3	6	2	19	.211	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	7
5Gracie ArmatoS	3	2	0	9	.222	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2
14Ella GridleyDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	7	0	0	0	0
30Isabella GutierrezL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	16	0	0	0	0
23Olga GergaczOH	2	1	0	6	.167	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1
6Gwendolyn HansenS	2	0	0	0	–	9	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
Team totals		24	14	98	.102	21	4	5	44	6	8	4	48

New Mexico St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
2Maggie LightheartOH	3	14	2	31	.387	1	1	0	9	0	0	2	1	16
30Jacqueline CorcoranOH	3	8	0	18	.444	0	1	2	9	1	0	3	1.5	10.5
11Jaelynn KohliOH	3	8	5	25	.120	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	1	9
7Mia FoxMB	3	5	1	9	.444	0	0	0	1	0	1	3	2.5	7.5
12Paige NelsonS	3	0	0	0	–	16	0	0	9	0	0	0	0	0
21Lilli SaldivarOH	2	2	3	8	-.125	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
8Ashley HermanOH	3	7	0	10	.700	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	1.5	8.5
10Katrina CatalanS	3	0	0	0	–	17	2	2	8	0	0	0	0	2
5Makayla MartinezL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	7	1	4	13	1	0	0	0	1
1Sadie RossOH	2	3	0	5	.600	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
3Bella CastroL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
14Mia MendozaS	1	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
16Kate SinclairMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
17Jazlyn VasquezL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		47	11	106	.340	44	6	8	55	4	2	14	9	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 PACIF · NM ST 7

Set 1*

20-25

Longest run 2 PACIFNM ST 7

Set 2

11-25

Longest run 2 PACIFNM ST 5

Set 3

17-25

Longest run 5 PACIFNM ST 4

Bars above the line = New Mexico St. leads, below = Pacific leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Pacific

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	36%4/11	57%4/7
2	50%4/8	20%1/5
3	31%4/13	33%2/6
4	30%3/10	20%1/5
5	67%2/3	25%1/4
6	50%2/4	0%0/2
All	39%19/49	31%9/29

New Mexico St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	44%4/9	50%3/6
2	100%4/4	69%9/13
3	57%4/7	60%6/10
4	100%3/3	67%6/9
5	75%3/4	57%4/7
6	100%2/2	50%2/4
All	69%20/29	61%30/49

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

123 rallies

Rally log

#	PACIF-NM ST	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	PACIF	PACIF	Kill	Nicole Zake	set Alessia Couchond	+1.0
2	2-0	PACIF	PACIF	Attack err	Jaelynn Kohli	blk Julia Porath, Adeline Sirbu	+1.1
3	2-1	PACIF	NM ST	Kill	Mia Fox	set Paige Nelson	+0.7
4	3-1	NM ST	PACIF	Serve err	NM ST server		+0.9
5	3-2	PACIF	NM ST	Kill	Mia Fox		+0.8
6	4-2	NM ST	PACIF	Kill	Julia Porath		+0.9
7	5-2	PACIF	PACIF	Attack err	Lilli Saldivar	blk Ellie Prindl, Julia Porath	+1.3
8	5-3	PACIF	NM ST	Serve err	PACIF server		+0.9
9	6-3	NM ST	PACIF	Serve err	NM ST server		+1.1
10	7-3	PACIF	PACIF	Attack err	Lilli Saldivar	blk Ellie Prindl, Hanna Vorhies	+1.4
11	7-4	PACIF	NM ST×6	Kill	Maggie Lightheart	set Katrina Catalan	+0.9
12	7-5	NM ST	NM ST×6	Kill	Jacqueline Corcoran	set Katrina Catalan	+1.2
13	7-6	NM ST	NM ST×6	Kill	Ashley Herman	set Katrina Catalan	+1.2
14	7-7	NM ST	NM ST×6	Attack err	Vanessa Zussino		+1.1
15	7-8	NM ST	NM ST×6	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+1.0
16	7-9	NM ST	NM ST×6	Ace	NM ST server	aced Vanessa Zussino	+0.9
17	8-9	NM ST	PACIF	Kill	Hanna Vorhies	set Gwendolyn Hansen	+0.7
18	8-10	PACIF	NM ST	Kill	Ashley Herman	set Katrina Catalan	+0.7
19	9-10	NM ST	PACIF	Kill	Ellie Prindl	set Gwendolyn Hansen	+0.7
20	10-10	PACIF	PACIF	Kill	Adeline Sirbu	set Gwendolyn Hansen	+1.2
21	10-11	PACIF	NM ST	Attack err	Nicole Zake	blk Ashley Herman, Jacqueline Corcoran	+0.9
22	11-11	NM ST	PACIF	Kill	Hanna Vorhies	set Gwendolyn Hansen	+1.0
23	12-11	PACIF	PACIF	Ace	PACIF server	aced Jacqueline Corcoran	+1.5
24	12-12	PACIF	NM ST×7	Kill	Jaelynn Kohli	set Paige Nelson	+1.0
25	12-13	NM ST	NM ST×7	Kill	Jaelynn Kohli		+1.3
26	12-14	NM ST	NM ST×7	Kill	Maggie Lightheart	set Makayla Martinez	+1.1
27	12-15	NM ST	NM ST×7	Attack err	Julia Porath	blk Maggie Lightheart, Mia Fox	+0.9
28	12-16	NM ST	NM ST×7	Kill	Maggie Lightheart	set Makayla Martinez	+0.7
29	12-17	NM ST	NM ST×7	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.5
30	12-18	NM ST	NM ST×7	Kill	Maggie Lightheart	set Makayla Martinez	+0.3
31	13-18	NM ST	PACIF	Serve err	NM ST server		+0.2
32	13-19	PACIF	NM ST	Attack err	Vanessa Zussino	set Alessia Couchond	+0.2
33	14-19	NM ST	PACIF	Serve err	NM ST server		+0.2
34	14-20	PACIF	NM ST×3	Attack err	Julia Porath	blk Mia Fox	+0.2
35	14-21	NM ST	NM ST×3	Attack err	Vanessa Zussino		+0.2
36	14-22	NM ST	NM ST×3	Attack err	Vanessa Zussino	blk Ashley Herman, Lilli Saldivar	+0.1
37	15-22	NM ST	PACIF	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.0
38	16-22	PACIF	PACIF	Kill	Vanessa Zussino		+0.1
39	16-23	PACIF	NM ST	Kill	Maggie Lightheart	set Katrina Catalan	+0.1
40	17-23	NM ST	PACIF	Attack err	Lilli Saldivar	set Katrina Catalan	+0.0
41	18-23	PACIF	PACIF	Kill	Nicole Zake		+0.1
42	18-24	PACIF	NM ST	Kill	Ashley Herman	set Katrina Catalan	+0.1
43	19-24	NM ST	PACIF	Attack err	Jaelynn Kohli	set Katrina Catalan	+0.0
44	20-24	PACIF	PACIF	Kill	Hanna Vorhies	set Gwendolyn Hansen	+0.1
45	20-25	PACIF	NM ST	Kill	Ashley Herman	set Katrina Catalan	+0.1
Set 2
1	1-0	NM ST	PACIF	Kill	Adeline Sirbu		+0.5
2	1-1	PACIF	NM ST	Kill	Mia Fox	set Paige Nelson	+0.4
3	1-2	NM ST	NM ST	Kill	Mia Fox		+0.5
4	2-2	NM ST	PACIF	Kill	Julia Porath	set Alessia Couchond	+0.5
5	2-3	PACIF	NM ST×3	Kill	Maggie Lightheart	set Paige Nelson	+0.4
6	2-4	NM ST	NM ST×3	Kill	Maggie Lightheart	set Lilli Saldivar	+0.5
7	2-5	NM ST	NM ST×3	Attack err	Julia Porath	blk Maggie Lightheart, Mia Fox	+0.4
8	3-5	NM ST	PACIF	Serve err	NM ST server		+0.3
9	3-6	PACIF	NM ST	Kill	Lilli Saldivar		+0.3
10	3-7	NM ST	NM ST	Kill	Maggie Lightheart	set Makayla Martinez	+0.4
11	4-7	NM ST	PACIF	Kill	Hanna Vorhies	set Gwendolyn Hansen	+0.3
12	4-8	PACIF	NM ST	Kill	Ashley Herman	set Katrina Catalan	+0.3
13	5-8	NM ST	PACIF	Kill	Nicole Zake	set Gwendolyn Hansen	+0.3
14	5-9	PACIF	NM ST	Kill	Jacqueline Corcoran	set Katrina Catalan	+0.3
15	5-10	NM ST	NM ST	Attack err	Jacqueline Corcoran	blk Jacqueline Corcoran, Ashley Herman	+0.3
16	6-10	NM ST	PACIF	Attack err	Maggie Lightheart	set Katrina Catalan	+0.2
17	6-11	PACIF	NM ST×3	Kill	Jaelynn Kohli		+0.2
18	6-12	NM ST	NM ST×3	Attack err	Nicole Zake		+0.2
19	6-13	NM ST	NM ST×3	Attack err	Julia Porath	blk Jacqueline Corcoran, Mia Fox	+0.2
20	7-13	NM ST	PACIF	Kill	Olga Gergacz		+0.1
21	8-13	PACIF	PACIF	Attack err	Jaelynn Kohli		+0.2
22	8-14	PACIF	NM ST×4	Kill	Jaelynn Kohli	set Paige Nelson	+0.2
23	8-15	NM ST	NM ST×4	Ace	NM ST server	aced Vanessa Zussino	+0.1
24	8-16	NM ST	NM ST×4	Ace	NM ST server	aced TEAM	+0.1
25	8-17	NM ST	NM ST×4	Kill	Maggie Lightheart	set Paige Nelson	+0.1
26	9-17	NM ST	PACIF	Kill	Adeline Sirbu		+0.0
27	9-18	PACIF	NM ST×5	Kill	Maggie Lightheart		+0.0
28	9-19	NM ST	NM ST×5	Kill	Lilli Saldivar	set Makayla Martinez	+0.0
29	9-20	NM ST	NM ST×5	Ace	NM ST server	aced Vanessa Zussino	+0.0
30	9-21	NM ST	NM ST×5	Kill	Maggie Lightheart		+0.0
31	9-22	NM ST	NM ST×5	Attack err	Nicole Zake		+0.0
32	10-22	NM ST	PACIF	Serve err	NM ST server		+0.0
33	11-22	PACIF	PACIF	Ace	PACIF server	aced TEAM	+0.0
34	11-23	PACIF	NM ST×3	Attack err	Hanna Vorhies	blk Sadie Ross, Kate Sinclair	+0.0
35	11-24	NM ST	NM ST×3	Kill	Sadie Ross	set Katrina Catalan	+0.0
36	11-25	NM ST	NM ST×3	Ace	NM ST server	aced TEAM	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	PACIF	NM ST×3	Kill	Jacqueline Corcoran	set Paige Nelson	+0.2
2	0-2	NM ST	NM ST×3	Kill	Jaelynn Kohli	set Paige Nelson	+0.2
3	0-3	NM ST	NM ST×3	Kill	Mia Fox	set Alessia Couchond	+0.2
4	1-3	NM ST	PACIF	Kill	Mia Fox	set Paige Nelson	+0.1
5	1-4	PACIF	NM ST	Kill	Maggie Lightheart	set Paige Nelson	+0.1
6	2-4	NM ST	PACIF×3	Serve err	NM ST server		+0.2
7	3-4	PACIF	PACIF×3	Kill	Hanna Vorhies	set Ellie Prindl	+0.2
8	4-4	PACIF	PACIF×3	Kill	Sadie Ross		+0.3
9	4-5	PACIF	NM ST	Serve err	PACIF server		+0.2
10	4-6	NM ST	NM ST	Ace	NM ST server	aced Gracie Armato	+0.2
11	5-6	NM ST	PACIF	Kill	Hanna Vorhies	set Alessia Couchond	+0.2
12	5-7	PACIF	NM ST×4	Kill	Sadie Ross	set Katrina Catalan	+0.2
13	5-8	NM ST	NM ST×4	Kill	Jacqueline Corcoran	set Makayla Martinez	+0.2
14	5-9	NM ST	NM ST×4	Kill	Jacqueline Corcoran	set Katrina Catalan	+0.2
15	5-10	NM ST	NM ST×4	Kill	Ashley Herman	set Katrina Catalan	+0.1
16	6-10	NM ST	PACIF	Kill	Gracie Armato	set Alessia Couchond	+0.1
17	6-11	PACIF	NM ST	Kill	Sadie Ross	set Katrina Catalan	+0.1
18	7-11	NM ST	PACIF	Kill	Nicole Zake	set Alessia Couchond	+0.1
19	7-12	PACIF	NM ST	Kill	Ashley Herman	set Katrina Catalan	+0.1
20	7-13	NM ST	NM ST	Kill	Jaelynn Kohli	set Maggie Lightheart	+0.1
21	8-13	NM ST	PACIF×5	Kill	Alessia Couchond	set Vanessa Zussino	+0.1
22	9-13	PACIF	PACIF×5	Ace	PACIF server	aced Makayla Martinez	+0.1
23	10-13	PACIF	PACIF×5	Attack err	Jaelynn Kohli		+0.2
24	11-13	PACIF	PACIF×5	Attack err	Jaelynn Kohli	blk Ellie Prindl, Hanna Vorhies	+0.3
25	12-13	PACIF	PACIF×5	Kill	Nicole Zake	set Alessia Couchond	+0.3
26	12-14	PACIF	NM ST×4	Kill	Jacqueline Corcoran	set Paige Nelson	+0.3
27	12-15	NM ST	NM ST×4	Kill	Jaelynn Kohli	set Paige Nelson	+0.3
28	12-16	NM ST	NM ST×4	Kill	Jaelynn Kohli	set Paige Nelson	+0.2
29	12-17	NM ST	NM ST×4	Kill	Maggie Lightheart	set Paige Nelson	+0.2
30	13-17	NM ST	PACIF	Kill	Nicole Zake	set Alessia Couchond	+0.1
31	13-18	PACIF	NM ST	Serve err	PACIF server		+0.1
32	14-18	NM ST	PACIF	Bad set	Sadie Ross		+0.1
33	14-19	PACIF	NM ST×3	Serve err	PACIF server		+0.1
34	14-20	NM ST	NM ST×3	Ace	NM ST server	aced TEAM	+0.1
35	14-21	NM ST	NM ST×3	Kill	Maggie Lightheart	set Makayla Martinez	+0.0
36	15-21	NM ST	PACIF	Serve err	NM ST server		+0.0
37	15-22	PACIF	NM ST	Serve err	PACIF server		+0.0
38	15-23	NM ST	NM ST	Kill	Jacqueline Corcoran	set Sadie Ross	+0.0
39	16-23	NM ST	PACIF	Kill	Gracie Armato	set Alessia Couchond	+0.0
40	17-23	PACIF	PACIF	Ace	PACIF server	aced TEAM	+0.0
41	17-24	PACIF	NM ST	Kill	Jacqueline Corcoran	set Katrina Catalan	+0.0
42	17-25	NM ST	NM ST	Attack err	Nicole Zake	blk Jaelynn Kohli	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Pacific first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.