Texas St. def. SFA 3–0
(25-22, 25-22, 25-19)| Set | 1* | 2 | 3 | Sets |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TX ST | 25 | 25 | 25 | 3 |
| SFA | 22 | 22 | 19 | 0 |
- * Set 1: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.
RallyIQ model
Win probability
Biggest swing: 6.1% to Texas St. — set 2, TX ST 24-22 SFA. Kill by Peyton McKee (set by Anna Blaine). SFA win probability 26% → 20%.
Before first serve
Pre-match
Texas St. wins
SFA wins
- TX ST break %
- 41.7% vs this opp
- SFA break %
- 42.8% vs this opp
Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.
Largest win-probability swings
Top plays
- 01Peyton McKeeKill+6.1%
Kill by Peyton McKee (set by Anna Blaine)
Set 2 · TX ST 24-22 SFA · TX ST 74% → 80%
- 02Brooke BentkeKill+5.7%
Kill by Brooke Bentke (set by Anna Blaine)
Set 1 · TX ST 24-22 SFA · TX ST 54% → 59%
- 03Katherine HoltmanAttack error+5.7%
Katherine Holtman stuffed by India Bennett & Isabella Andrews
Set 2 · TX ST 21-19 SFA · TX ST 70% → 75%
- 04Isabella AndrewsKill+5.2%
Kill by Isabella Andrews (set by Anna Blaine)
Set 2 · TX ST 23-21 SFA · TX ST 73% → 78%
- 05SFA serverAce+5.1%
SFA ace on Camryn Kimes
Set 2 · TX ST 19-19 SFA · SFA 30% → 35%
- 06Brooke BentkeKill+4.9%
Kill by Brooke Bentke (set by Anna Blaine)
Set 2 · TX ST 19-17 SFA · TX ST 69% → 74%
- 07Brooke BentkeKill+4.9%
Kill by Brooke Bentke (set by Anna Blaine)
Set 1 · TX ST 23-21 SFA · TX ST 52% → 57%
- 08Peyton McKeeKill+4.7%
Kill by Peyton McKee (set by Anna Blaine)
Set 2 · TX ST 25-22 SFA · TX ST 80% → 85%
Official NCAA box
Box score
| Player | S | K | E | TA | Hit% | AST | SA | SE | DIG | RE | BS | BA | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 14 | 0 | 23 | .609 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 14.5 | |
| 3 | 11 | 1 | 14 | .714 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2.5 | 13.5 | |
| 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | .143 | 48 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1.5 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -.500 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1.5 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | .333 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 3 | 14 | 5 | 35 | .257 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | |
| 3 | 7 | 0 | 12 | .583 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 8.5 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team totals | 52 | 13 | 109 | .358 | 50 | 1 | 9 | 50 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 4.5 | 75 |
| Player | S | K | E | TA | Hit% | AST | SA | SE | DIG | RE | BS | BA | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 10 | 2 | 23 | .348 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 10.5 | |
| 3 | 8 | 2 | 29 | .207 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 9.5 | |
| 3 | 4 | 2 | 16 | .125 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2.5 | 8.5 | |
| 3 | 5 | 4 | 14 | .071 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 8 | |
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2.5 | 4.5 | |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1.000 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | -.077 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 2.5 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | .333 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1.5 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team totals | 34 | 15 | 107 | .178 | 30 | 5 | 5 | 37 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 10 | 63 |
Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.
Point differential by rally
Momentum
Set 1*
25-22
Set 2
25-22
Set 3
25-19
Bars above the line = SFA leads, below = Texas St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.
Sideout and break % by rotation slot
Rotations
Texas St.
| Slot | Sideout % | Break % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 63%5/8 | 64%7/11 |
| 2 | 83%5/6 | 17%1/6 |
| 3 | 100%5/5 | 55%6/11 |
| 4 | 40%4/10 | 33%2/6 |
| 5 | 80%4/5 | 33%2/6 |
| 6 | 50%4/8 | 56%5/9 |
| All | 64%27/42 | 47%23/49 |
SFA
| Slot | Sideout % | Break % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 63%5/8 | 50%4/8 |
| 2 | 56%5/9 | 17%1/6 |
| 3 | 63%5/8 | 17%1/6 |
| 4 | 57%4/7 | 38%3/8 |
| 5 | 100%4/4 | 50%4/8 |
| 6 | 23%3/13 | 33%2/6 |
| All | 53%26/49 | 36%15/42 |
Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.
138 rallies
Rally log
| # | TX ST-SFA | Srv | Point | End | Player | Setter / blockers / passer | WP Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Set 1 | |||||||
| 1 | 0-1 | SFA | SFA | Kill | Caroline Kahle | set Izzy Orton | +2.5 |
| 2 | 1-1 | SFA | TX ST | Kill | Caelyn Emmerling | set Anna Blaine | +1.8 |
| 3 | 1-2 | TX ST | SFA | Kill | Caroline Kahle | set Izzy Orton | +1.8 |
| 4 | 2-2 | SFA | TX ST | Kill | India Bennett | set Anna Blaine | +1.8 |
| 5 | 3-2 | TX ST | TX ST | Attack err | Katherine Holtman | +2.6 | |
| 6 | 3-3 | TX ST | SFA | Kill | Avery Koonsen | set Izzy Orton | +1.9 |
| 7 | 4-3 | SFA | TX ST | Serve err | SFA server | +2.0 | |
| 8 | 5-3 | TX ST | TX ST | Kill | Peyton McKee | set Anna Blaine | +2.7 |
| 9 | 5-4 | TX ST | SFA | Serve err | TX ST server | +1.9 | |
| 10 | 5-5 | SFA | SFA | Kill | Katherine Holtman | set Izzy Orton | +2.7 |
| 11 | 6-5 | SFA | TX ST | Kill | Peyton McKee | set Anna Blaine | +2.1 |
| 12 | 6-6 | TX ST | SFA | Kill | Kyanna Creecy | set Madi Zorn | +2.0 |
| 13 | 7-6 | SFA | TX ST | Kill | Peyton McKee | set Anna Blaine | +2.1 |
| 14 | 8-6 | TX ST | TX ST | Kill | Brooke Bentke | set Anna Blaine | +2.9 |
| 15 | 8-7 | TX ST | SFA | Serve err | TX ST server | +2.0 | |
| 16 | 9-7 | SFA | TX ST×4 | Kill | Brooke Bentke | set Anna Blaine | +2.2 |
| 17 | 10-7 | TX ST | TX ST×4 | Attack err | Molly Cravens | +2.9 | |
| 18 | 11-7 | TX ST | TX ST×4 | Attack err | Avery Koonsen | blk India Bennett, Caelyn Emmerling | +2.7 |
| 19 | 12-7 | TX ST | TX ST×4 | Kill | India Bennett | set Anna Blaine | +2.3 |
| 20 | 12-8 | TX ST | SFA | Kill | Jordan Henderson | set Madi Zorn | +1.4 |
| 21 | 13-8 | SFA | TX ST | Kill | India Bennett | set Anna Blaine | +1.7 |
| 22 | 13-9 | TX ST | SFA×3 | Attack err | Caelyn Emmerling | blk Katherine Holtman, Jordan Henderson | +1.4 |
| 23 | 13-10 | SFA | SFA×3 | Attack err | Caelyn Emmerling | blk Katherine Holtman, Jordan Henderson | +2.3 |
| 24 | 13-11 | SFA | SFA×3 | Kill | Izzy Orton | set Anna Blaine | +2.8 |
| 25 | 14-11 | SFA | TX ST | Kill | India Bennett | set Anna Blaine | +2.4 |
| 26 | 14-12 | TX ST | SFA | Attack err | Peyton McKee | blk Katherine Holtman, Jordan Henderson | +2.1 |
| 27 | 15-12 | SFA | TX ST | Kill | India Bennett | set Anna Blaine | +2.5 |
| 28 | 16-12 | TX ST | TX ST | Kill | Peyton McKee | set Anna Blaine | +3.0 |
| 29 | 16-13 | TX ST | SFA×4 | Kill | Izzy Orton | set Anna Blaine | +1.7 |
| 30 | 16-14 | SFA | SFA×4 | Ace | SFA server | aced Brooke Bentke | +3.0 |
| 31 | 16-15 | SFA | SFA×4 | Kill | Avery Koonsen | set Izzy Orton | +3.5 |
| 32 | 16-16 | SFA | SFA×4 | Feed gap | Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known. | +4.0 | |
| 33 | 17-16 | SFA | TX ST×6 | Kill | Peyton McKee | set Anna Blaine | +3.1 |
| 34 | 18-16 | TX ST | TX ST×6 | Kill | Isabella Andrews | set Anna Blaine | +4.3 |
| 35 | 19-16 | TX ST | TX ST×6 | Kill | Brooke Bentke | set Anna Blaine | +3.9 |
| 36 | 20-16 | TX ST | TX ST×6 | Attack err | Molly Cravens | +3.2 | |
| 37 | 21-16 | TX ST | TX ST×6 | Kill | Ally Adair | +2.2 | |
| 38 | 22-16 | TX ST | TX ST×6 | Kill | Peyton McKee | set Anna Blaine | +1.3 |
| 39 | 22-17 | TX ST | SFA×5 | Kill | Avery Koonsen | set Jasmine Purakal | +0.4 |
| 40 | 22-18 | SFA | SFA×5 | Attack err | Peyton McKee | blk Kyanna Creecy, Molly Cravens | +1.0 |
| 41 | 22-19 | SFA | SFA×5 | Kill | Caroline Kahle | set Cambry Saul | +1.8 |
| 42 | 22-20 | SFA | SFA×5 | Attack err | Peyton McKee | +3.0 | |
| 43 | 22-21 | SFA | SFA×5 | Kill | Molly Cravens | set Madi Zorn | +4.6 |
| 44 | 23-21 | SFA | TX ST | Kill | Brooke Bentke | set Anna Blaine | +4.9 |
| 45 | 23-22 | TX ST | SFA | Serve err | TX ST server | +3.4 | |
| 46 | 24-22 | SFA | TX ST | Kill | Brooke Bentke | set Anna Blaine | +5.7 |
| 47 | 25-22 | TX ST | TX ST | Attack err | Caroline Kahle | blk Brooke Bentke, India Bennett | +4.4 |
| Set 2 | |||||||
| 1 | 0-1 | TX ST | SFA | Kill | Caroline Kahle | set Izzy Orton | +1.9 |
| 2 | 1-1 | SFA | TX ST | Kill | India Bennett | set Anna Blaine | +1.9 |
| 3 | 1-2 | TX ST | SFA | Attack err | Caelyn Emmerling | +1.9 | |
| 4 | 1-3 | SFA | SFA | Attack err | Caelyn Emmerling | blk Katherine Holtman, Kyanna Creecy | +2.6 |
| 5 | 2-3 | SFA | TX ST | Serve err | SFA server | +1.9 | |
| 6 | 3-3 | TX ST | TX ST | Ace | TX ST server | aced Caroline Kahle | +2.7 |
| 7 | 3-4 | TX ST | SFA | Kill | Katherine Holtman | set Izzy Orton | +2.0 |
| 8 | 4-4 | SFA | TX ST | Kill | Peyton McKee | set Anna Blaine | +2.1 |
| 9 | 4-5 | TX ST | SFA | Kill | Avery Koonsen | set Madi Zorn | +2.1 |
| 10 | 4-6 | SFA | SFA | Attack err | Ashley Euston | blk Caroline Kahle, Kyanna Creecy | +2.8 |
| 11 | 5-6 | SFA | TX ST | Kill | Ashley Euston | set Anna Blaine | +2.0 |
| 12 | 5-7 | TX ST | SFA | Serve err | TX ST server | +2.1 | |
| 13 | 6-7 | SFA | TX ST×5 | Kill | Peyton McKee | set Anna Blaine | +2.0 |
| 14 | 7-7 | TX ST | TX ST×5 | Kill | Brooke Bentke | set Anna Blaine | +3.0 |
| 15 | 8-7 | TX ST | TX ST×5 | Kill | Isabella Andrews | set Anna Blaine | +3.2 |
| 16 | 9-7 | TX ST | TX ST×5 | Kill | Brooke Bentke | set Anna Blaine | +3.2 |
| 17 | 10-7 | TX ST | TX ST×5 | Attack err | Jordan Henderson | +3.1 | |
| 18 | 10-8 | TX ST | SFA | Kill | Molly Cravens | set Madi Zorn | +2.0 |
| 19 | 10-9 | SFA | SFA | Kill | Caroline Kahle | set Cambry Saul | +3.1 |
| 20 | 11-9 | SFA | TX ST | Serve err | SFA server | +2.5 | |
| 21 | 12-9 | TX ST | TX ST | Bad set | Izzy Orton | +3.3 | |
| 22 | 12-10 | TX ST | SFA | Kill | Caroline Kahle | set Izzy Orton | +2.1 |
| 23 | 12-11 | SFA | SFA | Attack err | India Bennett | blk Jordan Henderson | +3.3 |
| 24 | 13-11 | SFA | TX ST | Kill | Brooke Bentke | set Anna Blaine | +2.7 |
| 25 | 13-12 | TX ST | SFA | Serve err | TX ST server | +2.5 | |
| 26 | 14-12 | SFA | TX ST | Attack err | Avery Koonsen | +2.8 | |
| 27 | 15-12 | TX ST | TX ST | Attack err | Katherine Holtman | +3.6 | |
| 28 | 15-13 | TX ST | SFA | Serve err | TX ST server | +2.3 | |
| 29 | 16-13 | SFA | TX ST | Kill | India Bennett | set Anna Blaine | +2.7 |
| 30 | 16-14 | TX ST | SFA×3 | Serve err | TX ST server | +2.3 | |
| 31 | 16-15 | SFA | SFA×3 | Bad set | Jasmine Purakal | +3.8 | |
| 32 | 16-16 | SFA | SFA×3 | Ace | SFA server | aced Isabella Andrews | +4.2 |
| 33 | 17-16 | SFA | TX ST | Kill | Ashley Euston | set Anna Blaine | +3.4 |
| 34 | 17-17 | TX ST | SFA | Attack err | Peyton McKee | +3.3 | |
| 35 | 18-17 | SFA | TX ST | Attack err | Caroline Kahle | +3.6 | |
| 36 | 19-17 | TX ST | TX ST | Kill | Brooke Bentke | set Anna Blaine | +4.9 |
| 37 | 19-18 | TX ST | SFA | Kill | Jordan Henderson | set Madi Zorn | +3.1 |
| 38 | 19-19 | SFA | SFA | Ace | SFA server | aced Camryn Kimes | +5.1 |
| 39 | 20-19 | SFA | TX ST | Kill | Isabella Andrews | set Anna Blaine | +4.2 |
| 40 | 21-19 | TX ST | TX ST | Attack err | Katherine Holtman | blk India Bennett, Isabella Andrews | +5.7 |
| 41 | 21-20 | TX ST | SFA | Kill | Jordan Henderson | set Izzy Orton | +3.4 |
| 42 | 22-20 | SFA | TX ST | Kill | Brooke Bentke | set Anna Blaine | +4.6 |
| 43 | 22-21 | TX ST | SFA | Serve err | TX ST server | +3.6 | |
| 44 | 23-21 | SFA | TX ST | Kill | Isabella Andrews | set Anna Blaine | +5.2 |
| 45 | 23-22 | TX ST | SFA | Kill | Avery Koonsen | set Izzy Orton | +3.7 |
| 46 | 24-22 | SFA | TX ST | Kill | Peyton McKee | set Anna Blaine | +6.1 |
| 47 | 25-22 | TX ST | TX ST | Kill | Peyton McKee | set Anna Blaine | +4.7 |
| Set 3 | |||||||
| 1 | 0-1 | SFA | SFA | Ace | SFA server | aced Camryn Kimes | +1.9 |
| 2 | 0-2 | SFA | SFA | Kill | Jordan Henderson | set Izzy Orton | +1.8 |
| 3 | 1-2 | SFA | TX ST | Kill | Isabella Andrews | set Anna Blaine | +1.3 |
| 4 | 1-3 | TX ST | SFA | Kill | Caroline Kahle | set Cambry Saul | +1.4 |
| 5 | 2-3 | SFA | TX ST×4 | Kill | Anna Blaine | set Izzy Orton | +1.3 |
| 6 | 3-3 | TX ST | TX ST×4 | Attack err | Jordan Henderson | +2.0 | |
| 7 | 4-3 | TX ST | TX ST×4 | Kill | India Bennett | set Anna Blaine | +2.0 |
| 8 | 5-3 | TX ST | TX ST×4 | Attack err | Jordan Henderson | +2.1 | |
| 9 | 5-4 | TX ST | SFA | Kill | Katherine Holtman | set Aniston Collins | +1.4 |
| 10 | 6-4 | SFA | TX ST | Kill | India Bennett | set Anna Blaine | +1.6 |
| 11 | 6-5 | TX ST | SFA | Kill | Kyanna Creecy | set Aniston Collins | +1.5 |
| 12 | 6-6 | SFA | SFA | Attack err | Peyton McKee | blk Kyanna Creecy, Lara Gilardi | +2.1 |
| 13 | 7-6 | SFA | TX ST | Kill | Peyton McKee | set Anna Blaine | +1.6 |
| 14 | 8-6 | TX ST | TX ST | Attack err | Kyanna Creecy | +2.2 | |
| 15 | 8-7 | TX ST | SFA | Attack err | Ashley Euston | +1.5 | |
| 16 | 8-8 | SFA | SFA | Kill | Caroline Kahle | set Madi Zorn | +2.2 |
| 17 | 9-8 | SFA | TX ST | Kill | Brooke Bentke | set Anna Blaine | +1.7 |
| 18 | 9-9 | TX ST | SFA×3 | Kill | Caroline Kahle | set Madi Zorn | +1.7 |
| 19 | 9-10 | SFA | SFA×3 | Kill | Lara Gilardi | set Avery Koonsen | +2.4 |
| 20 | 9-11 | SFA | SFA×3 | Kill | Caroline Kahle | set Madi Zorn | +2.3 |
| 21 | 10-11 | SFA | TX ST | Kill | Ashley Euston | set Anna Blaine | +1.6 |
| 22 | 10-12 | TX ST | SFA | Kill | Jordan Henderson | set Madi Zorn | +1.8 |
| 23 | 11-12 | SFA | TX ST | Kill | India Bennett | set Anna Blaine | +1.7 |
| 24 | 12-12 | TX ST | TX ST | Attack err | Jordan Henderson | blk India Bennett | +2.5 |
| 25 | 12-13 | TX ST | SFA | Kill | Katherine Holtman | set Aniston Collins | +1.9 |
| 26 | 13-13 | SFA | TX ST | Serve err | SFA server | +1.9 | |
| 27 | 14-13 | TX ST | TX ST | Kill | Peyton McKee | set Anna Blaine | +2.8 |
| 28 | 14-14 | TX ST | SFA | Attack err | Peyton McKee | blk Katherine Holtman, Jordan Henderson | +2.0 |
| 29 | 15-14 | SFA | TX ST | Kill | India Bennett | set Anna Blaine | +2.2 |
| 30 | 16-14 | TX ST | TX ST | Kill | Peyton McKee | set Dylan Gilkey | +3.0 |
| 31 | 16-15 | TX ST | SFA×3 | Attack err | Ashley Euston | blk Avery Koonsen, Kyanna Creecy | +2.0 |
| 32 | 16-16 | SFA | SFA×3 | Kill | Avery Koonsen | set Caroline Kahle | +3.0 |
| 33 | 16-17 | SFA | SFA×3 | Kill | Avery Koonsen | set Madi Zorn | +3.2 |
| 34 | 17-17 | SFA | TX ST | Kill | Peyton McKee | set Anna Blaine | +2.3 |
| 35 | 18-17 | TX ST | TX ST | Attack err | Kyanna Creecy | +3.5 | |
| 36 | 18-18 | TX ST | SFA | Kill | Avery Koonsen | set Madi Zorn | +2.5 |
| 37 | 19-18 | SFA | TX ST | Kill | Brooke Bentke | set Anna Blaine | +2.8 |
| 38 | 19-19 | TX ST | SFA | Serve err | TX ST server | +2.7 | |
| 39 | 20-19 | SFA | TX ST×6 | Serve err | SFA server | +3.0 | |
| 40 | 21-19 | TX ST | TX ST×6 | Kill | Brooke Bentke | set Anna Blaine | +4.1 |
| 41 | 22-19 | TX ST | TX ST×6 | Kill | Brooke Bentke | set Anna Blaine | +3.4 |
| 42 | 23-19 | TX ST | TX ST×6 | Kill | Isabella Andrews | set Anna Blaine | +2.3 |
| 43 | 24-19 | TX ST | TX ST×6 | Kill | Isabella Andrews | set Jasmine Purakal | +1.1 |
| 44 | 25-19 | TX ST | TX ST×6 | Attack err | Molly Cravens | +0.3 | |
Score shown after each rally, Texas St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.