FinalSat, Sep 12, 2026

AwayUAC-

0:3

HomeSOUTHLAND

SFA def. UT Arlington 3–0

(25-18, 25-21, 25-23)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
TX ARL	18	21	23	0
SFA	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

SFA above 50 · TX ARL below

Biggest swing: 2.1% to UT Arlington — set 1, TX ARL 10-11 SFA. Attack error by Avery Koonsen. SFA win probability 81% → 79%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

TX ARL 23.0%77.0% SFA

UT Arlington wins

3-0

3.9%

3-1

7.8%

3-2

11.3%

SFA wins

3-0

28.7%

3-1

29.3%

3-2

19.0%

TX ARL break %: 38.6% vs this opp
SFA break %: 44.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Avery KoonsenAttack error+2.1%
Attack error by Avery Koonsen
Set 1 · TX ARL 10-11 SFA · TX ARL 19% → 21%
02
Lucy TriccoAttack error+2.0%
Attack error by Lucy Tricco
Set 1 · TX ARL 10-13 SFA · SFA 81% → 83%
03
Lara GilardiAttack error+2.0%
Lara Gilardi stuffed by Hana Aiana & Camryn McMinn
Set 1 · TX ARL 3-3 SFA · TX ARL 21% → 23%
04
Jordan HendersonKill+1.9%
Kill by Jordan Henderson (set by Aniston Collins)
Set 3 · TX ARL 23-25 SFA · SFA 98% → 100%
05
Molly CravensKill+1.9%
Kill by Molly Cravens (set by Lucy Tricco)
Set 1 · TX ARL 1-2 SFA · SFA 77% → 79%
06
Kennedy JonesKill+1.8%
Kill by Kennedy Jones (set by Caroline Kahle)
Set 1 · TX ARL 3-5 SFA · SFA 79% → 80%
07
Hana AianaAttack error+1.8%
Attack error by Hana Aiana
Set 1 · TX ARL 13-17 SFA · SFA 83% → 85%
08
Camryn McMinnAttack error+1.7%
Camryn McMinn stuffed by Molly Cravens & Lara Gilardi
Set 1 · TX ARL 1-3 SFA · SFA 79% → 81%

Official NCAA box

Box score

UT Arlingtonaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
7Sophia KrichevMB	3	11	4	25	.280	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	12.5
17Camryn McMinnOH	3	7	4	19	.158	1	0	1	6	2	2	1	8
1Hana AianaOH	3	5	1	9	.444	0	0	1	2	0	3	1.5	6.5
12Evyn SnookOH	3	6	3	26	.115	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	6
22Lucy TriccoS	3	2	1	4	.250	36	1	0	4	0	1	0.5	3.5
5Lily HopkinsL/DS	3	1	0	2	.500	0	0	1	8	0	0	0	1
10Mazi SmithOH	3	8	3	19	.263	0	0	0	1	0	3	1.5	9.5
29Morgan StitzerL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
83Samantha GlennOH	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	14	1	0	0	0
9Emilee SikoraOH	2	3	4	10	-.100	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	3
15Karisa MartinOH	1	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
2Erica DelleskyS	1	0	0	0	–	3	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		43	20	115	.200	41	1	4	43	4	12	6	62

SFAhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
10Kennedy JonesOH	3	12	1	23	.478	1	2	2	5	0	0	1	0.5	14.5
7Avery KoonsenOH	3	10	6	29	.138	1	0	0	7	1	0	1	0.5	10.5
20Molly CravensMB	3	7	1	13	.462	0	0	0	0	0	1	4	3	10
28Lara GilardiOH	3	4	1	12	.250	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	1.5	5.5
5Katherine HoltmanOH	3	4	3	18	.056	0	0	2	5	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
18Madi ZornS	3	1	0	1	1.000	20	0	1	6	0	0	0	0	1
14Jordan HendersonMB	3	8	1	11	.636	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	2	10
1Aniston CollinsS	3	0	0	0	–	20	2	0	5	0	0	0	0	2
11Caroline KahleOH	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	13	0	0	0	0	0
15Brinkley ReevesOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		46	13	107	.308	44	4	5	43	1	2	12	8	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 TX ARL · SFA 4

Set 1

18-25

Longest run 4 TX ARLSFA 4

Set 2

21-25

Longest run 2 TX ARLSFA 3

Set 3

23-25

Longest run 3 TX ARLSFA 4

Bars above the line = SFA leads, below = UT Arlington leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

UT Arlington

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	69%9/13	33%4/12
2	62%8/13	10%1/10
3	67%8/12	27%3/11
4	53%8/15	20%2/10
5	80%8/10	20%2/10
6	64%7/11	20%2/10
All	65%48/74	22%14/63

SFA

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	83%10/12	31%4/13
2	73%8/11	43%6/14
3	89%8/9	27%3/11
4	80%8/10	43%6/14
5	73%8/11	27%3/11
6	70%7/10	36%4/11
All	78%49/63	35%26/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

137 rallies

Rally log

#	TX ARL-SFA	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	SFA	TX ARL	Attack err	Avery Koonsen	blk Sophia Krichev, Lucy Tricco	+1.5
2	1-1	TX ARL	SFA×3	Attack err	Camryn McMinn		+1.4
3	1-2	SFA	SFA×3	Kill	Molly Cravens	set Lucy Tricco	+1.9
4	1-3	SFA	SFA×3	Attack err	Camryn McMinn	blk Molly Cravens, Lara Gilardi	+1.7
5	2-3	SFA	TX ARL	Kill	Sophia Krichev	set Lucy Tricco	+1.2
6	3-3	TX ARL	TX ARL	Attack err	Lara Gilardi	blk Hana Aiana, Camryn McMinn	+2.0
7	3-4	TX ARL	SFA×3	Kill	Kennedy Jones	set Madi Zorn	+1.4
8	3-5	SFA	SFA×3	Kill	Kennedy Jones	set Caroline Kahle	+1.8
9	3-6	SFA	SFA×3	Attack err	Camryn McMinn	blk Katherine Holtman, Molly Cravens	+1.7
10	4-6	SFA	TX ARL	Kill	Hana Aiana	set Lucy Tricco	+1.1
11	4-7	TX ARL	SFA×3	Kill	Molly Cravens	set Madi Zorn	+1.2
12	4-8	SFA	SFA×3	Ace	SFA server	aced Camryn McMinn	+1.5
13	4-9	SFA	SFA×3	Ace	SFA server	aced Camryn McMinn	+1.2
14	5-9	SFA	TX ARL	Kill	Mazi Smith	set Erica Dellesky	+0.7
15	5-10	TX ARL	SFA	Attack err	Mazi Smith		+0.8
16	6-10	SFA	TX ARL	Kill	Evyn Snook	set Samantha Glenn	+0.7
17	6-11	TX ARL	SFA	Kill	Avery Koonsen	set Aniston Collins	+0.8
18	7-11	SFA	TX ARL×4	Kill	Sophia Krichev	set Erica Dellesky	+0.7
19	8-11	TX ARL	TX ARL×4	Kill	Sophia Krichev	set Lucy Tricco	+1.4
20	9-11	TX ARL	TX ARL×4	Attack err	Jordan Henderson		+1.7
21	10-11	TX ARL	TX ARL×4	Attack err	Avery Koonsen		+2.1
22	10-12	TX ARL	SFA	Kill	Avery Koonsen	set Caroline Kahle	+1.6
23	10-13	SFA	SFA	Attack err	Lucy Tricco		+2.0
24	11-13	SFA	TX ARL	Kill	Sophia Krichev	set Lucy Tricco	+1.3
25	11-14	TX ARL	SFA	Serve err	TX ARL server		+1.4
26	12-14	SFA	TX ARL	Kill	Sophia Krichev	set Lucy Tricco	+1.3
27	12-15	TX ARL	SFA	Kill	Molly Cravens	set Madi Zorn	+1.5
28	13-15	SFA	TX ARL	Kill	Camryn McMinn	set Lucy Tricco	+1.4
29	13-16	TX ARL	SFA×4	Kill	Kennedy Jones	set Madi Zorn	+1.5
30	13-17	SFA	SFA×4	Attack err	Hana Aiana		+1.8
31	13-18	SFA	SFA×4	Kill	Jordan Henderson	set Aniston Collins	+1.3
32	13-19	SFA	SFA×4	Attack err	Mazi Smith		+0.8
33	14-19	SFA	TX ARL	Kill	Hana Aiana	set Erica Dellesky	+0.4
34	14-20	TX ARL	SFA	Kill	Katherine Holtman	set Aniston Collins	+0.5
35	14-21	SFA	SFA	Kill	Jordan Henderson	set Aniston Collins	+0.4
36	15-21	SFA	TX ARL	Serve err	SFA server		+0.1
37	15-22	TX ARL	SFA	Attack err	Evyn Snook		+0.2
38	16-22	SFA	TX ARL	Kill	Sophia Krichev	set Lucy Tricco	+0.1
39	16-23	TX ARL	SFA	Kill	Katherine Holtman	set Aniston Collins	+0.2
40	17-23	SFA	TX ARL	Kill	Sophia Krichev	set Lucy Tricco	+0.1
41	18-23	TX ARL	TX ARL	Kill	Camryn McMinn	set Lucy Tricco	+0.2
42	18-24	TX ARL	SFA	Kill	Avery Koonsen	set Madi Zorn	+0.2
43	18-25	SFA	SFA	Attack err	Sophia Krichev	blk Molly Cravens, Kennedy Jones	+0.1
Set 2
1	0-1	TX ARL	SFA	Serve err	TX ARL server		+1.0
2	1-1	SFA	TX ARL	Kill	Sophia Krichev	set Lucy Tricco	+1.1
3	1-2	TX ARL	SFA	Kill	Kennedy Jones	set Madi Zorn	+1.0
4	2-2	SFA	TX ARL	Attack err	Katherine Holtman	blk Sophia Krichev, Camryn McMinn	+1.1
5	2-3	TX ARL	SFA	Kill	Molly Cravens	set Madi Zorn	+1.0
6	3-3	SFA	TX ARL	Kill	Camryn McMinn	set Lucy Tricco	+1.1
7	3-4	TX ARL	SFA	Kill	Jordan Henderson	set Aniston Collins	+1.1
8	4-4	SFA	TX ARL	Attack err	Avery Koonsen		+1.1
9	4-5	TX ARL	SFA	Kill	Katherine Holtman	set Aniston Collins	+1.1
10	4-6	SFA	SFA	Kill	Lara Gilardi	set Kennedy Jones	+1.5
11	5-6	SFA	TX ARL	Serve err	SFA server		+1.0
12	5-7	TX ARL	SFA	Kill	Jordan Henderson	set Aniston Collins	+1.0
13	5-8	SFA	SFA	Kill	Lara Gilardi	set Madi Zorn	+1.4
14	6-8	SFA	TX ARL	Serve err	SFA server		+0.9
15	6-9	TX ARL	SFA	Kill	Avery Koonsen	set Madi Zorn	+1.0
16	6-10	SFA	SFA	Attack err	Sophia Krichev		+1.2
17	7-10	SFA	TX ARL	Kill	Lucy Tricco		+0.8
18	7-11	TX ARL	SFA	Kill	Kennedy Jones	set Avery Koonsen	+0.8
19	8-11	SFA	TX ARL	Kill	Camryn McMinn	set Lucy Tricco	+0.8
20	8-12	TX ARL	SFA	Kill	Molly Cravens	set Madi Zorn	+0.9
21	9-12	SFA	TX ARL	Kill	Camryn McMinn	set Lucy Tricco	+0.8
22	9-13	TX ARL	SFA	Kill	Kennedy Jones	set Aniston Collins	+0.9
23	10-13	SFA	TX ARL	Serve err	SFA server		+0.8
24	11-13	TX ARL	TX ARL	Attack err	Katherine Holtman		+1.4
25	11-14	TX ARL	SFA	Serve err	TX ARL server		+1.1
26	12-14	SFA	TX ARL	Kill	Hana Aiana	set Lucy Tricco	+1.0
27	12-15	TX ARL	SFA	Kill	Avery Koonsen	set Aniston Collins	+1.2
28	13-15	SFA	TX ARL	Kill	Sophia Krichev	set Lucy Tricco	+1.1
29	13-16	TX ARL	SFA	Attack err	Sophia Krichev		+1.2
30	14-16	SFA	TX ARL	Kill	Lucy Tricco	set Lucy Tricco	+1.1
31	14-17	TX ARL	SFA	Attack err	Camryn McMinn	blk Molly Cravens, Lara Gilardi	+1.2
32	15-17	SFA	TX ARL	Kill	Lily Hopkins	set Lucy Tricco	+1.1
33	15-18	TX ARL	SFA	Kill	Kennedy Jones	set Madi Zorn	+1.3
34	15-19	SFA	SFA	Bad set	Lucy Tricco		+1.4
35	16-19	SFA	TX ARL	Kill	Emilee Sikora	set Lucy Tricco	+0.8
36	17-19	TX ARL	TX ARL	Ace	TX ARL server	aced Avery Koonsen	+1.6
37	17-20	TX ARL	SFA×3	Kill	Jordan Henderson	set Aniston Collins	+1.4
38	17-21	SFA	SFA×3	Ace	SFA server	aced Evyn Snook	+1.4
39	17-22	SFA	SFA×3	Ace	SFA server	aced Samantha Glenn	+0.8
40	18-22	SFA	TX ARL	Attack err	Avery Koonsen	blk Hana Aiana, Mazi Smith	+0.3
41	18-23	TX ARL	SFA	Kill	Jordan Henderson	set Aniston Collins	+0.5
42	19-23	SFA	TX ARL	Kill	Mazi Smith	set Lucy Tricco	+0.2
43	19-24	TX ARL	SFA	Kill	Avery Koonsen	set Aniston Collins	+0.4
44	20-24	SFA	TX ARL	Kill	Evyn Snook	set Lucy Tricco	+0.1
45	21-24	TX ARL	TX ARL	Attack err	Avery Koonsen		+0.3
46	21-25	TX ARL	SFA	Kill	Madi Zorn	set Samantha Glenn	+0.5
Set 3
1	1-0	SFA	TX ARL	Kill	Evyn Snook	set Lucy Tricco	+0.6
2	1-1	TX ARL	SFA×3	Kill	Molly Cravens	set Madi Zorn	+0.5
3	1-2	SFA	SFA×3	Attack err	Evyn Snook	blk Molly Cravens	+0.8
4	1-3	SFA	SFA×3	Attack err	Emilee Sikora		+0.7
5	2-3	SFA	TX ARL×3	Kill	Sophia Krichev	set Lucy Tricco	+0.5
6	3-3	TX ARL	TX ARL×3	Kill	Hana Aiana	set Lucy Tricco	+0.8
7	4-3	TX ARL	TX ARL×3	Kill	Evyn Snook	set Lucy Tricco	+0.9
8	4-4	TX ARL	SFA	Attack err	Emilee Sikora		+0.6
9	5-4	SFA	TX ARL	Kill	Hana Aiana	set Lucy Tricco	+0.6
10	5-5	TX ARL	SFA	Kill	Molly Cravens	set Madi Zorn	+0.6
11	6-5	SFA	TX ARL	Kill	Emilee Sikora	set Lucy Tricco	+0.7
12	7-5	TX ARL	TX ARL	Attack err	Kennedy Jones		+1.0
13	7-6	TX ARL	SFA	Kill	Kennedy Jones	set Aniston Collins	+0.6
14	8-6	SFA	TX ARL×3	Kill	Mazi Smith	set Lucy Tricco	+0.7
15	9-6	TX ARL	TX ARL×3	Attack err	Avery Koonsen	blk Mazi Smith, Sophia Krichev	+1.0
16	10-6	TX ARL	TX ARL×3	Kill	Mazi Smith	set Lucy Tricco	+1.0
17	10-7	TX ARL	SFA×4	Serve err	TX ARL server		+0.6
18	10-8	SFA	SFA×4	Attack err	Mazi Smith	blk Avery Koonsen, Jordan Henderson	+1.0
19	10-9	SFA	SFA×4	Attack err	Sophia Krichev	blk Jordan Henderson	+1.0
20	10-10	SFA	SFA×4	Attack err	Evyn Snook	blk Jordan Henderson, Lara Gilardi	+1.0
21	11-10	SFA	TX ARL	Kill	Mazi Smith	set Lucy Tricco	+0.8
22	11-11	TX ARL	SFA	Kill	Avery Koonsen	set Aniston Collins	+0.7
23	11-12	SFA	SFA	Attack err	Emilee Sikora		+1.0
24	12-12	SFA	TX ARL	Kill	Evyn Snook	set Lucy Tricco	+0.8
25	12-13	TX ARL	SFA	Kill	Avery Koonsen	set Madi Zorn	+0.7
26	13-13	SFA	TX ARL	Kill	Emilee Sikora	set Lucy Tricco	+0.8
27	13-14	TX ARL	SFA	Kill	Kennedy Jones	set Madi Zorn	+0.8
28	13-15	SFA	SFA	Attack err	Emilee Sikora		+1.0
29	14-15	SFA	TX ARL	Attack err	Katherine Holtman		+0.7
30	14-16	TX ARL	SFA	Kill	Kennedy Jones	set Madi Zorn	+0.8
31	15-16	SFA	TX ARL	Kill	Mazi Smith	set Lucy Tricco	+0.7
32	15-17	TX ARL	SFA	Kill	Jordan Henderson	set Aniston Collins	+0.8
33	16-17	SFA	TX ARL	Kill	Mazi Smith	set Lucy Tricco	+0.8
34	16-18	TX ARL	SFA	Kill	Avery Koonsen	set Aniston Collins	+0.8
35	17-18	SFA	TX ARL	Serve err	SFA server		+0.8
36	17-19	TX ARL	SFA	Kill	Lara Gilardi	set Aniston Collins	+0.9
37	17-20	SFA	SFA	Kill	Lara Gilardi	set Madi Zorn	+1.1
38	18-20	SFA	TX ARL	Kill	Sophia Krichev	set Lucy Tricco	+0.6
39	18-21	TX ARL	SFA	Kill	Avery Koonsen	set Madi Zorn	+0.8
40	19-21	SFA	TX ARL	Kill	Camryn McMinn	set Lucy Tricco	+0.6
41	19-22	TX ARL	SFA	Kill	Kennedy Jones	set Madi Zorn	+0.8
42	20-22	SFA	TX ARL	Kill	Camryn McMinn	set Lucy Tricco	+0.5
43	21-22	TX ARL	TX ARL	Attack err	Molly Cravens		+1.3
44	21-23	TX ARL	SFA	Kill	Kennedy Jones	set Madi Zorn	+1.3
45	22-23	SFA	TX ARL	Kill	Mazi Smith	set Lucy Tricco	+0.9
46	22-24	TX ARL	SFA	Kill	Katherine Holtman	set Aniston Collins	+1.5
47	23-24	SFA	TX ARL	Kill	Evyn Snook	set Camryn McMinn	+0.8
48	23-25	TX ARL	SFA	Kill	Jordan Henderson	set Aniston Collins	+1.9

Score shown after each rally, UT Arlington first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.